| 基于可靠度理论的尾矿坝失稳概率及敏感性分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 李涛,刘国栋,王聪.基于可靠度理论的尾矿坝失稳概率及敏感性分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2019,30(3):81-86. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 李涛 刘国栋 王聪 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 商洛学院城乡规划与建筑工程学院;长安大学公路学院 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 陕西省科技厅重大基础研究项目(2016ZDJC-21);商洛市科技局科研计划项目(SKY016-38);商洛学院科研项目(16SKY-FWDF006) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了能够真实反映砭家沟尾矿库的稳定特性,运用Monte Carlo试验原理,考虑库区砂层的空间变异特性,利用Slope/W软件对尾矿库进行了概率分析与敏感性分析。分析表明,抽样方式的不同,使尾矿坝体失稳概率和可靠性指标发生了大幅波动,但是并没有使安全系数产生明显变化,也验证了仅将安全系数作为衡量尾矿坝体稳定性的唯一标准是不合适的;敏感性分析也表明了砂层主要参数对安全系数影响的敏感程度,同时也表明黏聚力是影响库区稳定的主要砂层因素。通过研究,为尾矿库今后的运行与管理提供了理论依据,具有一定的指导意义。
|
| 关 键 词： | 尾矿库 可靠度理论 MONTE Carlo试验 概率分析 敏感性分析 |
Instability probability and sensitivity analysis of tailings dam based on reliability theory |
| |
| LI Tao,LIU Guodong,WANG Cong.Instability probability and sensitivity analysis of tailings dam based on reliability theory[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2019,30(3):81-86. |
| |
| Authors: | LI Tao LIU Guodong WANG Cong |
| |
| Affiliation: | (College of Urban,Rural Planning and Architectural Engineering,Shangluo University,Shangluo,Shaanxi 726000,China;School of Highway,Chang’an University,Xi’an,Shaanxi710064,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to reflect the stability characteristics of the Bianjiagou tailings reservoir,taking the spatial variability of sand layer into account,probability analysis and sensitivity analysis of tailings reservoir were carried out by Slope/W software based on the principle of Monte Carlo test. The analysis shows that the different sampling methods make the instability probability and reliability index fluctuate greatly,but it does not make the safety change obviously. It also proves that it is not appropriate to measure the stability of the tailings dam only by using the safety factor. The sensitivity analysis the of main parameters of sand layer safety factor,and also indicates that cohesive force is the main soil factor that affects the stability of the reservoir area. Through the research,the study provides a theoretical basis for the operation and management of the tailings reservoir in the future,and has certain guiding significance. |
| |
| Keywords: | tailing reservoir reliability theory Monte Carlo test probability analysis sensitivity analysis |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《中国地质灾害与防治学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《中国地质灾害与防治学报》下载全文 |
|
