| 不同地质条件约束下的油气资源量概率组合加和方法及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 盛秀杰,金之钧,肖晔,王义刚.不同地质条件约束下的油气资源量概率组合加和方法及应用[J].地球科学,2016,41(5):853-863. |
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| 作者姓名： | 盛秀杰 金之钧 肖晔 王义刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国石油化工股份有限公司石油勘探开发研究院, 北京 100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重大油气专项项目No.2011ZX05005-001-004 |
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| 摘 要： | 目前, 国内普遍使用的“简单加和”或“概率加权加和”方法计算的区带或三(四)级圈闭资源量很大程度上与实际地质情况并不吻合.在PetroV开发过程中, 设计并实现了一种可充分考虑不同地质条件约束的油气资源量计算方法——以不确定性体积法的随机蒙氏模拟为基础, 对最新地质上识别出的、不可切分的含油气聚集单元, 进行符合不同地质模型约束的取样、组合; 在明确了哪些单元才应该同时出现的基础上, 将其他不同地质条件约束有机融合到模拟过程中, 客观描述各个计算单元体积模型的不确定性.从实例计算结果分析可以看出, “概率组合加和”可获取更加符合当前地质模型的不确定性油气资源量计算结果, 显著提升勘探部署项目优选排队的合理性.
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| 关 键 词： | 不确定性体积法 含油气性风险依赖 油气资源评价 地质多场景 概率组合加和 数学模型 石油地质. |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-02-28 |
Combination Probability Cumulating Method of Resources Evaluation and Its Application for Oil & Gas Zone and Trap under Different Geological Constrains |
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| Abstract: | Resources of the zone or the 3rd (or the 4th) tectonic trap are often evaluated by directly and simply cumulating the resources size of its segments weighted by discovery probability in China. Obviously, not all segments certainly have been discovered due to constraints of special geological conditions. In addition, prediction value generally doesn't honestly reflect the practical geological model if quantifying the direct effect of geological model constraints on volumetric parameters and Monte Carlo simulation process is ignored. For the development of PetroV, an improved non-deterministic volumetric method with quantifying kinds of geological constraints is devised in the paper: to sample and composite the undivided segments which should stay in the same combination, then quantify impact caused by the key geological factors in order to objectively delineate volumetric uncertainty. It is confirmed by applications and detailed analysis that "combination probability cumulating" method proposed in this paper could explain each quantile value of resource distribution with clear geological scenarios, which leads to more reasonable exploration strategies. |
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