| 中国飞蝗(Locusta migratoria)灾害地理分布模拟及其生物气候因子分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张杰,张旸,赵振勇,李敏.中国飞蝗(Locusta migratoria)灾害地理分布模拟及其生物气候因子分析[J].干旱区地理,2019,42(3):590-598. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张杰 张旸 赵振勇 李敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省科学院鄱阳湖研究中心,江西南昌,330096;福建农林大学资源与环境学院,福建福州,350002;中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐,830011;江西省南昌市第一中等专业学校,江西南昌,330013 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41661019）；江西省科学院普惠制项目(2013-XTPH1-28)；江西省软科学研究计划项目(20161ACA10021)；江西省青年科学基金资助项目(20132BAB213024)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 飞蝗Locusta migratoria (Linnaeus)系斑翅蝗科Oedipodidae飞蝗属Locusta Linnaeus洲际性农业重大害虫，在我国主要包括东亚飞蝗L.migratoria manilensis (Meyen)、亚洲飞蝗WTBX]L.migratoriaWTBZ] (Linnaeus)和西藏飞蝗L.migratoria tibetensis Chen。掌控飞蝗灾害的地理空间分布并预测起潜在的适宜分布区，对于我国飞蝗灾害的综合防控具有重要意义。结合三种中国飞蝗灾害记录地理信息和生物环境环境因子参数，应用最大熵模型(MaxEnt) 和地理信息技术(GIS) ，在3 km×3 km尺度上对三种飞蝗灾害在中国的地理分布空间格局梯度、灾害风险概率和风险等级进行了模拟预测与分析，并对影响分布的关键生物气候环境因子进行了分析。结果显示，蝗灾害风险区的地理分布模拟结果与历史记录完全符合，ROC检验表明MaxEnt 模型预测可靠性极高。三种飞蝗东亚飞蝗、亚洲飞蝗和西藏飞蝗在中国的灾害风险区总面积依次分别为315.87×104 km2、395.80×104 km2和125.00×104 km2，分别占国土面积的33.43%、41.96% 和13.25%。东亚飞蝗和亚洲飞蝗的灾害风险区存在75.8×104 km2的空间重叠，主要分布于我国农牧交错区及以南区域。三种飞蝗灾害风险区的地理梯度与分布格局与中国三大自然地理区高度吻合，其地理分布格局表现出显著的经度和纬度空间梯度异质性。刀切法检测（Jackknife test）表明，三种飞蝗灾害的主导生物—气候影响因子的不同导致了其地理分布格局的显著差异，表明蝗灾爆发概率同时受到各自不同飞蝗物种对气候环境的适应性与地理空间隔离作用的共同制约。研究结果可为我国飞蝗灾害的跨界联合全程防控、区域联网监测联控和综合治理提供参考依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 飞蝗 蝗灾 灾害风险 地理分布 适宜性 最大熵模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-12-02 |
Potential geographic distribution modeling and bioclimatic analysis of outbreak risk for the migratory locust plague in China |
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| ZHANG Jie,ZHANG Yang,ZHAO Zhenyong,LI Min.Potential geographic distribution modeling and bioclimatic analysis of outbreak risk for the migratory locust plague in China[J].Arid Land Geography,2019,42(3):590-598. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jie ZHANG Yang ZHAO Zhenyong LI Min |
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| Abstract: | One of the most persistent and damaging natural hazards is the migratory locust plague in China,which is the most widespread locust species,and poses a threat to agricultural production and,subsequently,livelihoods and food security.In this study,based on the data on the history reported occurrence data of locust disasters,we applied MaxEnt niche models to predict and analyze the distribution area of the locust outbreak risk for three main species of migratory locust in China.It consists of a geographical information system,the spatial distribution of the locust outbreak risk for the Asian migratory locust (Locusta migratoria migratoria (Linnaeus)),the Oriental Migratory Locust（Locusta migratoria manilensis (Meyen) ) and the Tibetan migratory locust (Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen) were mapped at 3 km×3 km resolution ,and the degree of outbreak risk is evaluated.The results of the migratory locust plague probability modelling displays a heterogeneous distribution of locust disasters risk probability in China.The area of low to high risk for three species of locust infestation is 3 158 667 km2,3 958 002 km2 and 1 250 037 km2 respectively,accounted for 33.43%,41.96% and 13.25% of China’s total land area respectively.The disaster risk areas of L.migratoria migratoria and L.migratoria manilensis have a spatial overlap of 757 890 km2,mainly distributed in the farming pastoral ecotone and the south region of China.The geographic patterns of the spatial distribution of the locust outbreak for three species along latitudinal and longitudinal gradients are highly consistent with the three major natural geographical areas in China.The predicted results were then tested by ROC curves using suitability indexes (AUC),the mean AUC across eight different spatial scales is ranged from 0.924 to 0.987.The Jackknife test analysis reveals the linkages between locust infestation risk and main environmental factors and the results show that the difference of the dominant influence factors of the three species of migratory locust disasters leads to the significant differences and heterogeneity of geographical distribution pattern in China.The results show that the probability of locust disaster outbreak is simultaneously restricted by the adaptability of different migratory locust species to the climate environment and their geographical space isolation.The study will provide vital information to help manage and control the outbreak risk of the migratory locust disaster. |
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| Keywords: | migratory locust plague disaster outbreak risk geographical distribution suitability MaxEnt |
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