| 近60a来新疆不同海拔气候变化的时空特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张音,古丽贤·吐尔逊拜,苏里坦,刘迁迁.近60a来新疆不同海拔气候变化的时空特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2019,42(4):822-829. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张音 古丽贤·吐尔逊拜 苏里坦 刘迁迁 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830011;中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049;新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐,830049;中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐,830011 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（U1603342，U1403182）；新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学特培计划项目（2019D03004） |
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| 摘 要： | 全球变暖是当前全球气候变化研究的热点之一，新疆深居亚欧大陆内陆，地形气候复杂，探讨该区域气候变化与海拔的关系对全球气候变化研究具有重要的参考意义。基于1958—2017年新疆41个气象站的月和年平均气候数据，采用一元线性回归、Mann Kendall（M-K）趋势分析和突变检验等方法分析该地区气候变化的时空分布与海拔的关系。结果表明：1958—2017年新疆年均气温、年均降水量均呈上升趋势，但增加幅度具有时间和空间差异。在时间上，北疆四季平均气温增温幅度均大于南疆（冬季除外），四季降水量增幅北疆大于南疆（夏季除外）；在空间上，北疆气温和降水的增幅均大于南疆。研究区各个站点气温呈现出南部高而北部低的空间格局，年均降水量北部多，南部低。各个站点气温倾向率总体随海拔增加而减少，年均降水量变化率随海拔升高而增加，在不同海拔带内部存在差异。综上所述，受全球气候变暖的影响，近60 a来新疆年均气温和年均降水量均呈上升趋势，尤其是北疆对全球气候变暖的响应较为敏感。
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| 关 键 词： | 新疆 不同海拔带 气候变化 回归分析 Mann-Kendall检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-09-30 |
Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate change at different altitudes in Xinjiang in the past 60 years |
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| ZHANG Yin,,TUERXUNBAI Gulixian,SU Litan,LIU Qianqian.Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate change at different altitudes in Xinjiang in the past 60 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2019,42(4):822-829. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yin TUERXUNBAI Gulixian SU Litan LIU Qianqian |
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| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,CAS,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China;2.College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Science,Beijing 100049,China;
3Xinjiang Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Urumqi 830049,Xinjiang,China |
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| Abstract: | Global warming is one of the hotspots in global climate change research.Climate is an important part of nature,the basis for human survival and development,and an important condition for sustainable social development.But in recent years,with the intensification of human activities,the global climate is getting warmer.Located in arid and semi arid regions,Xinjiang,China,has complex topography and more obvious climate change.In recent years,the average annual temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang have been on the rise,which has aroused widespread concern of domestic and foreign experts and scholars.Therefore,the discussion of the relationship between climate change and altitude in this region has important reference significance for global climate change research,as well as guiding significance for promoting sustainable development of local economy and rational utilization of resources.Based on the long term temperature and precipitation data of 41 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1958 to 2017,and using ArcGIS,Matlab and other software,this paper uses regression analysis,climate trend method,Mann Kendall (M-K) trend analysis and mutation test and other methods to analyze the time and space characteristics of climate change in different altitude zones in the research area in the past 60 years.The results show that from 1958 to 2017,the average annual temperature and precipitation of Xinjiang show an upward trend,but the increase range has time and space differences.In terms of time,the average temperature increase range of four seasons in northern Xinjiang is greater than that in southern Xinjiang (except winter),and the increase rate of four seasons in northern Xinjiang is greater than that in southern Xinjiang (except summer).Spatially,the increase of temperature and precipitation in northern Xinjiang was greater than that in southern Xinjiang.The temperature of each station in the study area showed a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north,with the highest average annual temperature of the meteorological stations around the Tarim Basin in the south and low average annual temperature in the north.However,the range of temperature increase was not consistent.In general,the range of temperature increase in northern Xinjiang was larger than that in southern Xinjiang,showing regional differences.The average annual precipitation is high in the north and low in the south.The trend rate of temperature decreases with the increase of altitude,and the change rate of annual precipitation increases with the increase of altitude.The results showed that the average annual temperature in the middle and low altitude zone increased greatly,and the average annual precipitation in the middle and high altitude zone increased greatly.To sum up,under the influence of global warming,the average annual temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang have been on the rise in the past 60 years.In particular,northern Xinjiang is more sensitive to global warming than southern Xinjiang. |
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| Keywords: | Xinjiang different elevation zones climate change regression analysis Mann Kendall test |
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