| 基于Copula的近60a京津冀地区干旱灾害危险性评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 李倩,王瑛,许映军,俞海洋,龙爽,黄靖玲.基于Copula的近60a京津冀地区干旱灾害危险性评估[J].干旱区地理,2019,42(6):1310-1321. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李倩 王瑛 许映军 俞海洋 龙爽 黄靖玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875;北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875;环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875;地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875;北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875;河北省气象灾害防御中心,河北石家庄,050021 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划支持项目(2017YFC1502505，2017YFA0604903)；河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室开放基金项目(Z201603H) |
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| 摘 要： | 干旱灾害是京津冀地区主要气象灾害之一，严重影响社会经济和粮食安全。评估京津冀地区干旱灾害危险性，识别高危险区，旨在为灾害防范和应急调控提供参考。利用1958—2017年37个气象站降水日数据，计算标准化降水指数（SPI6），根据游程理论界定干旱历时和干旱强度。运用K-S检验法、AIC法分别确定指标的最优边缘分布函数和Copula函数，计算5 a、10
a、30 a及50 a一遇水平下干旱强度和干旱历时的重现期。结果表明：京津冀地区20世纪60年代中期至今SPI6呈下降趋势；指数分布和广义极值分布分别是干旱历时和干旱强度的最优边缘分布，Frank Copula在变量联合概率分布计算时拟合最好；就干旱历时和干旱强度重现期而言，30 a、50 a一遇水平下联合重现期为，北京市、沧州市、衡水市及承德市北部等地区的重现期长，危险性低，其余地区危险性较高；站点干旱灾害的联合重现期理论值与实际情况较符合，能够反映实际灾害情况。
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| 关 键 词： | 干旱灾害 标准化降水指数 Copula 联合分布 京津冀 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-02-18 |
Hazard
assessment of drought disasters in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on Copula
for recent 60 years |
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| LI Qian,WANG Ying,XU Ying-jun,YU Hai-yang,LONG Shuang,HUANG Jing-ling.Hazard
assessment of drought disasters in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on Copula
for recent 60 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2019,42(6):1310-1321. |
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| Authors: | LI Qian WANG Ying XU Ying-jun YU Hai-yang LONG Shuang HUANG Jing-ling |
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| Affiliation: | 1 Key Laboratory of
Environment Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal
University,Beijing 100875,China;2.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface
Processes and Resources Ecology,Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875,China;3.Faculty of Geographical
Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;4.Hebei Meteorological Disaster Prevention
Center,Shijiazhuang 050021,China |
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| Abstract: | Drought disaster is one of the major meteorological disasters in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China with serious economic and food security impacts. The hazard of drought disasters is evaluated to identify the high hazard areas, and provide references for the disaster prevention and emergency control. Based on the precipitation data of 37 meteorological stations from 1958 to 2017, the standardized precipitation index at 6-month scale (SPI6) is calculated. And the drought duration and the drought severity are defined using the run theory. We use Kolmogorov-Smirnov method and AIC method to confirm the most fitted marginal distributions and the Copula function. The return periods of drought duration and drought severity are calculated under different return periods (RP 5 a, 10 a, 30 a, 50 a).The results show that the SPI6 is in a downward trend from the mid-1960s to current times. The exponential distribution and the generalized extreme value distribution are the optimal marginal distributions of drought duration and drought intensity, respectively. Frank Copula has the best fitting in the calculation of joint probability distribution. As far as the joint return periods of drought duration and drought severity show Beijing, Cangzhou, Hengshui and north Chengde of Hebei Province have a long joint return period with low hazard and the rest of the region has a short joint return period with high hazard (RP 30 a, 50 a).The theoretical joint return period of the drought disaster is close to the actual situation, which indicates that the joint return period can better reflect the situations of drought disasters. |
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| Keywords: | Times New Roman" serif drought" target="_blank">">drought standardized precipitation index Copula joint distribution Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region |
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