共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 390 毫秒
1.
Streamflow forecasts are updated periodically in real time, thereby facilitating forecast evolution. This study proposes a forecast-skill-based model of forecast evolution that is able to simulate dynamically updated streamflow forecasts. The proposed model applies stochastic models that deal with streamflow variability to generate streamflow scenarios, which represent cases without forecast skill of future streamflow. The model then employs a coefficient of prediction to determine forecast skill and to quantify the streamflow variability ratio explained by the forecast. By updating the coefficients of prediction periodically, the model efficiently captures the evolution of streamflow forecast. Simulated forecast uncertainty increases with increasing lead time; and simulated uncertainty during a specific future period decreases over time. We combine the statistical model with an optimization model and design a hypothetical case study of reservoir operation. The results indicate the significance of forecast skill in forecast-based reservoir operation. Shortage index reduces as forecast skill increases and ensemble forecast outperforms deterministic forecast at a similar forecast skill level. Moreover, an effective forecast horizon exists beyond which more forecast information does not contribute to reservoir operation and higher forecast skill results in longer effective forecast horizon. The results illustrate that the statistical model is efficient in simulating forecast evolution and facilitates analysis of forecast-based decision making. 相似文献
2.
The ultimate goal of reservoir simulation in reservoir surveillance technology is to estimate long-term production forecasting and to plan development and management of petroleum fields. However, maintaining reliable reservoir models which honour available static and dynamic data, involve inherent risks due to the uncertainties in space and time of the distribution of hydrocarbons inside reservoirs. Recent applications have shown that these uncertainties can be reduced by quantitative integration of seismic data into the reservoir modelling workflows to identify which areas and reservoir attributes of the model should be updated. This work aims using seismic data to reduce ambiguity in calibrating reservoir flow simulation model with an uncertain petro-elastic model, proposing a circular workflow of inverted seismic impedance (3D and 4D) and engineering studies, with emphasis on the interface between static and dynamic models. The main contribution is to develop an updating procedure for adjusting reservoir simulation response before using it in the production forecasting and enhance the interpretive capability of reservoir properties. Accordingly, the workflow evaluates consistency of reservoir simulation model and inverted seismic impedance, assisted by production history data, to close the loop between reservoir engineering and seismic domains. The methodology is evaluated in a complex, faulted, sandstone reservoir, the Norne benchmark field, where a significant reservoir behaviour understanding (about the static and dynamic reservoir properties) is obtained towards the quantitative integration of seismic impedance data. This leads to diagnosis of the reservoir flow simulation reliability and generation of an updated simulation model consistent with observed seismic and well production history data, as well as a calibrated petro-elastic model. Furthermore, as Norne Field is a benchmark case, this study can be considered to enrich the discussions over deterministic or probabilistic history matching studies. 相似文献
3.
Abstract This study proposes an empirical approach that can lead to the sustainable management of groundwater resources. This approach enables a comprehensive understanding of an aquifer, delineates distinct hydrological scenarios, and recommends a set of operational activities for each sub-region of the aquifer. The paper focuses on the Coastal aquifer of the Gaza Strip region which has been divided into three sub-regions. The southern sub-region (WSW) is classified as scenario “+a2”, which indicates that it can be used as a multi-annual groundwater reservoir. The northern sub-region (NW-E) is designated scenario “-a2”, where the recommended operational measures include injection of freshwater in wells and cleaning of the surface environment. The third sub-region (CSE), is classified as scenario “-b2”, which requires severe management measures to correct both a negative hydrological and environmental situation. The approach also involves on-going monitoring of the aquifer, and can be considered as an empirical tool to provide preliminary guidelines for long-term groundwater management. 相似文献
4.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6)
Abstract Abstract Reservoirs play a vital role in flood prevention and disaster relief in China. The objectives of the project described in this study were to establish a reservoir flood forecasting and control system and to design and develop corresponding application software. This paper introduces the current reservoir flood control and operation practice with this system in China. Using modern integration technologies, an application software for this Reservoir Flood Forecasting and Control System (RFFCS) has been developed and updated since 1995. The structure of the system and its main functions, telemetric data acquisition and processing, the hydrological database, flood forecasting, and reservoir operation components are described in detail. The working environment, key technologies and standardization design are emphasized. Having been successfully applied to 212 reservoirs in China, the software has proved to be reliable and user-friendly. In its latest version, the software supports reservoir flood forecasting and flood dispatch decisions. The future research direction and the extension of the software function are also discussed. 相似文献
5.
Aizhong Ye Qingyun Duan John Schaake Jing Xu Xiaoxue Deng Zhenhua Di Chiyuan Miao Wei Gong 《水文研究》2015,29(10):2438-2453
For water supply, navigational, ecological protection or water quality control purposes, there is a great need in knowing the likelihood of the river level falling below a certain threshold. Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) based on simulations of deterministic hydrologic models is widely used to assess this likelihood. Raw ESP results can be biased in both the ensemble means and the spreads. In this study, we applied a modified general linear model post‐processor (GLMPP) to correct these biases. The modified GLMPP is built on the basis of regression of simulated and observed streamflow calculated on the basis of canonical events, instead of the daily values as is carried out in the original GLMPP. We conducted the probabilistic analysis of post‐processed ESP results falling below pre‐specified low‐flow levels at seasonal time scale. Raw ESP forecasts from the 1980 to 2006 periods by four different land surface models (LSMs) in eight large river basins in the continental USA are included in the analysis. The four LSMs are Noah, Mosaic, variable infiltration capacity and Sacramento models. The major results from this study are as follows: (1) a modified GLMPP was proposed on the basis of canonical events; (2) post‐processing can improve the accuracy and reduce the uncertainty of hydrologic forecasts; (3) post‐processing can help deal with the effect of human activity; and (4) raw simulation results from different models vary greatly in different basins. However, post‐processing can always remove model biases under different conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman–Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
Estimates of the effective fluid modulus from seismic cannot be directly converted to the true pore-volume weighted mean saturation determined from fluid flow principles by using the saturation laws currently in use. One of the reasons is that seismic waves sample the reservoir geology and production induced saturation heterogeneity in a different way from the fluids. This mismatch prevents accurate quantitative evaluation of saturation changes from 4D seismic analysis. To tackle this problem, a reservoir-related saturation law is developed for a turbidite reservoir – this geology being chosen because the architecture for a single sand package can be modelled as a stack of horizontal beds. An effective medium and perturbation theory are applied to the determination of the seismic properties of this model. This calculation provides a relationship that connects the true saturation to the effective fluid modulus from seismic via statistical measures of the vertical spread of the porosity and saturation variations in the reservoir. These statistics can be extracted from the simulation model and if known, enable the new saturation law to deliver a significant improvement in accuracy when estimating compared to other well-known laws. The relationship that has been developed also captures the effect of inter-bedded shales and can therefore be used to estimate true saturation in regions of the reservoir with moderate to low net-to-gross, provided the fraction of the shale component is known. In practice, the final choice of saturation law depends upon the reservoir information available, the assumptions that can be tolerated and the accuracy required in any particular reservoir characterization study. 相似文献
8.
测井数据分维计算及其应用条件研究 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
分形几何已成功地应用于储层表征,分维是储层一征和随机建模的控制参数,为了准确表征储层,必须精确地估计分维值。本文介绍了利用测井数据计算储层分维值的三种方法：变尺度分析法（Ｒ／Ｓ分析）,变异函数分析法、功率谱分析法,研究发现分维计算中对数据的分级处理实际上就是对数据进行灰色累加生成。研究表明影响分维估计精度的主要因素有四种：数据点数、数据概率分布、数据平稳性,无标度区,研究认为,现有的３种方法不能用 相似文献
9.
In‐stream sensors are increasingly deployed as part of ambient water quality‐monitoring networks. Temporally dense data from these networks can be used to better understand the transport of constituents through streams, lakes or reservoirs. Data from existing, continuously recording in‐stream flow and water quality monitoring stations were coupled with the two‐dimensional hydrodynamic CE‐QUAL‐W2 model to assess the potential of altered reservoir outflow management to reduce sediment trapping in John Redmond Reservoir, located in east‐central Kansas. Monitoring stations upstream and downstream from the reservoir were used to estimate 5.6 million metric tons of sediment transported to John Redmond Reservoir from 2007 through 2010, 88% of which was trapped within the reservoir. The two‐dimensional model was used to estimate the residence time of 55 equal‐volume releases from the reservoir; sediment trapping for these releases varied from 48% to 97%. Smaller trapping efficiencies were observed when the reservoir was maintained near the normal operating capacity (relative to higher flood pool levels) and when average residence times were relatively short. An idealized, alternative outflow management scenario was constructed, which minimized reservoir elevations and the length of time water was in the reservoir, while continuing to meet downstream flood control end points identified in the reservoir water control manual. The alternative scenario is projected to reduce sediment trapping in the reservoir by approximately 3%, preventing approximately 45 000 metric tons of sediment from being deposited within the reservoir annually. This article presents an approach to quantify the potential of reservoir management using existing in‐stream data; actual management decisions need to consider the effects on other reservoir benefits, such as downstream flood control and aquatic life. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
储层物性参数是储层描述的重要参数,常规的基于贝叶斯理论的储层物性参数反演方法大多是通过反演获得的弹性参数进一步转换而获得物性参数,本文提出一种基于弹性阻抗数据预测储层物性参数的反演方法.该方法主要通过建立可以表征弹性阻抗与储层物性参数之间关系的统计岩石物理模型,联合蒙特卡罗仿真模拟技术,在贝叶斯理论框架的指导下,应用期望最大化算法估计物性参数的后验概率分布,最终实现储层物性参数反演.经过模型测试和实际资料的处理,其结果表明本文提出的方法具有预测精度高,稳定性强,横向连续性好等优点. 相似文献
11.
Discrete Element Modeling of Stress and Strain Evolution Within and Outside a Depleting Reservoir 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Stress changes within and around a depleting petroleum reservoir can lead to reservoir compaction and surface subsidence,
affect drilling and productivity of oil wells, and influence seismic waves used for monitoring of reservoir performance. Currently
modeling efforts are split into more or less coupled geomechanical (normally linearly elastic), fluid flow, and geophysical
simulations. There is evidence (from e.g. induced seismicity) that faults may be triggered or generated as a result of reservoir
depletion. The numerical technique that most adequately incorporates fracture formation is the DEM (Discrete Element Method).
This paper demonstrates the feasibility of the DEM (here PFC; Particle Flow Code) to handle this problem. Using an element
size of 20 m, 2-D and 3-D simulations have been performed of stress and strain evolution within and around a depleting reservoir.
Within limits of elasticity, the simulations largely reproduce analytical predictions; the accuracy is however limited by
the element size. When the elastic limit is exceeded, faulting is predicted, particularly near the edge of the reservoir.
Simulations have also been performed to study the activation of a pre-existing fault near a depleting reservoir. 相似文献
12.
Antônia Tatiana Pinheiro do Nascimento Natália Holanda Maia Cavalcanti Bruno Parente Leitão de Castro 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(1):80-91
In the Brazilian semi-arid region, thousands of small dams have been built over time to enhance water availability, accumulating water and hydraulic energy at high altitudes. Simulations were performed in this study to assess how the arrangement of reservoirs impacts on the power demand for water distribution in the Banabuiú River Basin (19?800 km2), Brazil. The power required to pump water from 1405 reservoirs to all districts with diffuse demands is 6.5 GWh/year, whereas in the scenario with only the 12 larger strategic reservoirs, the power demand reached 45.3 GWh/year. Alone, the largest reservoir in the basin can supply water to all districts. Nonetheless, in that scenario, the power demand would reach 195 GWh/year, which is 30 times the power required in the real reservoir arrangement. Thus, decentralization by small reservoirs not only promotes more democratic access to water, but also increases energy efficiency by storing it at higher altitudes and closer to the diffuse demands. 相似文献
13.
为阐明典型沙源区水库大气磷干、湿沉降的污染特征及其对水域磷素污染的贡献,为水库富营养化治理提供科学依据,以京蒙沙源区大河口水库库区为研究区,于2014年沿水库岸边布设12个大气沉降监测站点,采集干、湿沉降样品,测定干、湿沉降中总磷(TP)浓度,计算全年各月大气TP干、湿沉降通量和年入库TP污染负荷量.结果表明:研究区大气干、湿沉降季节差异显著,全年各月TP干沉降通量变化范围为4.89~35.76 kg/(km~2·月),主要集中在春季4月和秋季10月.最大TP干沉降通量出现在春季风沙最为严重的4月;湿沉降主要集中在夏季(6—8月),最大TP湿沉降通量出现在降雨量最大的8月,为28.88 kg/(km~2·月),且TP湿沉降通量与降雨量呈显著正相关.2014年大气TP沉降入库污染负荷量为0.719 t,占同期滦河和吐力根河两条河流入库TP污染负荷比率为51.17%,成为影响和限制大河口水库磷营养盐水平的重要源项之一. 相似文献
14.
Estimation of reservoir flood control operation risks with considering inflow forecasting errors 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Baowei Yan Shenglian Guo Lu Chen 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(2):359-368
A method for quantifying inflow forecasting errors and their impact on reservoir flood control operations is proposed. This approach requires the identification of the probability distributions and uncertainty transfer scheme for the inflow forecasting errors. Accordingly, the probability distributions of the errors are inferred through deducing the relationship between its standard deviation and the forecasting accuracy quantified by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient. The traditional deterministic flood routing process is treated as a diffusion stochastic process. The diffusion coefficient is related to the forecasting accuracy, through which the forecasting errors are indirectly related to the sources of reservoir operation risks. The associated risks are derived by solving the stochastic differential equation of reservoir flood routing via the forward Euler method. The Geheyan reservoir in China is selected as a case study. The hydrological forecasting model for this basin is established and verified. The flood control operation risks in the forecast-based pre-release operation mode for different forecasting accuracies are estimated by the proposed approach. Application results show that the proposed method can provide a useful tool for reservoir operation risk estimation and management. 相似文献
15.
This paper introduces a risk-based decision process integrated into a drought early warning system (DEWS) for reservoir operation. It is to support policy making under uncertainty for drought management. Aspects of posterior risk, chances of option occurrences and the corresponding options to given chances, are provided to help decision makers to make better decisions. A new risk index is also defined to characterize decision makers’ attitudes toward risk. Decision makers can understand the inclination of attitude associated with any specific probability through accuracy assessment, and learn to adjust their attitudes in decision-making process. As a pioneering experiment, the Shihmen reservoir in northern Taiwan was tested. Over the simulation period (1964–2005), the expected overall accuracy approximated to 77%. The results show that the proposed approach is very practical and should find good use for reservoir operations. 相似文献
16.
The primary objective of this study is to propose a real‐coded hypercubic distributed genetic algorithm (HDGA) for optimizing reservoir operation system. A conventional genetic algorithm (GA) is often trapped into local optimums during the optimization procedure. To prevent premature convergence and to obtain near‐global optimal solutions, the HDGA is designed to have various subpopulations that are processed using separate and parallel GAs. The hypercubic topology with a small diameter spreads good solutions rapidly throughout all of the subpopulations, and a migration mechanism, which exchanges chromosomes among the subpopulations, exchanges information during the joint optimization to maintain diversity and thus avoid a systematic premature convergence toward a single local optimum. Three genetic operators, i.e. linear ranking selection, blend‐α crossover and Gaussian mutation, are applied to search for the optimal reservoir releases. First, a benchmark problem, the four‐reservoir operation system, is considered to investigate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results show that the known global optimal solution can be effectively and stably achieved by the HDGA. The HDGA is then applied in the planning of a multi‐reservoir system in northern Taiwan, considering a water reservoir development scenario to the year 2021. The results searched by an HDGA minimize the water deficit of this reservoir system and provide much better performance than the conventional GA in terms of obtaining lower values of the objective function and avoiding local optimal solutions. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
A. V. Kiryukhin N. P. Asaulova O. B. Vereina A. Yu. Polyakov 《Journal of Volcanology and Seismology》2014,8(3):156-167
It is shown that the productive reservoir received considerable quantities of meteoric water during the operation of the Pauzhetka geothermal field (1960–2007), which amounted to 30% of the total with-drawal of heat carrier. This led to cooling of the productive reservoir and reduced steam extraction. Modeling the operation process with the infiltration zones sealed shows that steam extraction can be enhanced by 23.2%. Multi-option modeling for the operation of the Dachnyi site of the Mutnovskii geothermal field shows that the most-likely scenario is infiltration of meteoric water with a discharge of about 60 kg/s into the productive reservoir from above. These results are consistent with the decrease in the steam concentration during the first 4 years of operation. 相似文献
18.
在地震储层预测中,可采用的地震属性种类繁多,但太多地震属性常常会起到干扰作用,影响储层的预测精度,因此,为提高地震储层预测精度,把粗糙集理论融入到地震属性的优化中,利用粗糙集理论所具有的提取有用属性、简化信息处理的能力,优选出地震属性中的敏感属性是本文的研究目的,本文采用了一种基于属性方差的自组织神经网络量化方法,并运用基于区别矩阵的属性频率约简算法对地震属性进行优选,实例分析表明:该方法可行有效,可以最大限度地删除冗余地震属性,用优选出的敏感属性组合对多种储层参数进行预测均已取得了较好的效果. 相似文献
19.
20.
南海双船地震勘探介绍 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
双船地震法包括ESP和SAP法是研究地壳深部结构和构造的有效方法.本文介绍了这两种方法资料处理的主要问题和步骤.预处理工作主要是解决在海洋动态环境下,两船和两套系统同时工作带来的一系列与定位、计时和地震系统有关的问题.着重介绍了用ESP的τ-p记录及x-t域记录进行速度分析的各种方法,它们大都不受反射波时距曲线是双曲线假设的限制.各种方法有各自的特点和限制,用户可根据实际工作的条件和需要选用.SAP的资料处理按四个子系统分别进行,处理方法与一般水平叠加剖面的常规处理相同,获得高质量剖面的关键是求准各层速度得到符合实际情况的叠加速度文件.仔细对比四个子剖面,反复进行处理,最后再有条件地将四个子剖面合成浅、中、深都清晰的合成排列剖面.在资料处理和解释过程中,两种方法相互配合、互为补充. 相似文献