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1.
To develop an evidence base to help predict the impacts of land management change on flood generation, four experimental sites were established on improved grassland used for sheep grazing at the Pontbren catchment in upland Wales, UK. At each site, three plots were established where surface runoff was measured, supplemented by measurements of soil infiltration rates and soil and vegetation physical properties. Following baseline monitoring, treatments were applied to two of the plots: exclusion of sheep (ungrazed) and exclusion of sheep and planting with native broadleaf tree species (tree planted), with the third plot acting as a control (grazed pasture). Due to a particularly dry summer that occurred pre‐treatment, the soil hydrological responses were initially impacted by the effects of the climate on soil structure. Nevertheless, treatments did have a clear influence on soil hydrological response. On average, post‐treatment runoff volumes were reduced by 48% and 78% in ungrazed and tree‐planted plots relative to the control, although all results varied greatly over the sites. Five years following treatment application, near‐surface soil bulk density was reduced and median soil infiltration rates were 67 times greater in plots planted with trees compared to grazed pasture. The results illustrate the potential use of upland land management for ameliorating local‐scale flood generation but emphasise the need for long‐term monitoring to more clearly separate the effects of land management from those of climatic variability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
In response to growing concern about impacts of upland agricultural land management on flood risk, an intensely instrumented experimental catchment has been established at Pontbren, a sheep‐farmed headwater catchment of the River Severn, UK. Primary aims are to develop understanding of the processes governing flood generation and the associated impacts of land management practices, and to bridge the gap between process understanding and ability to predict effects on downstream flooding. To achieve this, the experiment is designed to operate at plot (～100 m2), hillslope (～0·1 km2) and small catchment scale (～10 km2). Hillslope‐scale data, from an under‐drained, agriculturally ‘improved’ pasture, show that drain flow is a dominant runoff process. However, depending on antecedent moisture conditions, overland flow may exceed drain flow rates and can be an important contributor to peak flow runoff at the hillslope‐scale. Flow, soil tension data and tracer tests confirm the importance of macropores and presence of perched water tables under ‘normal’ wet conditions. Comparisons of pasture runoff with that from within a 10 year‐old tree shelterbelt show significantly reduced overland flow due to the presence of trees and/or absence of sheep. Comparisons of soil hydraulic properties show significant increases in hydraulic conductivity and saturated moisture content of soil under trees compared to adjacent improved pasture. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Quantifying the impact of landscape on hydrological variables is essential for the sustainable development of water resources. Understanding how landscape changes influence hydrological variables will greatly enhance the understanding of hydrological processes. Important vegetation parameters are considered in this study by using remote sensing data and VIC-CAS model to analyse the impact of landscape changes on hydrology in upper reaches of the Shule River Basin (URSLB). The results show there are differences in the runoff generation of landscape both in space and time. With increasing altitude, the runoff yields increased, with approximately 79.9% of the total runoff generated in the high mountains (4200–5900 m), and mainly consumed in the mid-low mountain region. Glacier landscape produced the largest runoff yields (24.9% of the total runoff), followed by low-coverage grassland (LG; 22.5%), alpine cold desert (AL; 19.6%), mid-coverage grassland (MG; 15.6%), bare land (12.5%), high-coverage grassland (HG; 4.5%) and shrubbery (0.4%). The relative capacity of runoff generation by landscapes, from high to low, was the glaciers, AL, LG, HG, MG, shrubbery and bare land. Furthermore, changes in landscapes cause hydrological variables changes, including evapotranspiration, runoff and baseflow. The study revealed that HG, MG, and bare land have a positive impact on evapotranspiration and a negative impact on runoff and baseflow, whereas AL and LG have a positive impact on runoff and baseflow and a negative impact on evapotranspiration. In contrast, glaciers have a positive impact on runoff. After the simulation in four vegetation scenarios, we concluded that the runoff regulation ability of grassland is greater than that of bare land. The grassland landscape is essential since it reduced the flood peak and conserved the soil and water.  相似文献   

4.
Xing Fang  John W. Pomeroy 《水文研究》2016,30(16):2754-2772
A devastating flood struck Southern Alberta in late June 2013, with much of its streamflow generation in the Front Ranges of the Rocky Mountains, west of Calgary. To better understand streamflow generation processes and their sensitivity to initial conditions, a physically based hydrological model was developed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) to simulate the flood for the Marmot Creek Research Basin (~9.4 km2). The modular model includes major cold and warm season hydrological processes including snow redistribution, sublimation, melt, runoff over frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, subsurface runoff on hillslopes, groundwater recharge and discharge and streamflow routing. Uncalibrated simulations were conducted for eight hydrological years and generally matched streamflow observations well, with a NRMSD of 52%, small model bias (?3%) and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.71. The model was then used to diagnose the responses of hydrological processes in 2013 flood from different ecozones in Marmot Creek: alpine, treeline, montane forest and large and small forest clearings to better understand spatial variations in the flood runoff generation mechanisms. To examine the sensitivity to antecedent conditions, ‘virtual’ flood simulations were conducted using a week (17 to 24 June 2013) of flood meteorology imposed on the meteorology of the same period in other years (2005 to 2012), or switched with the meteorology of one week in different months (May to July) of 2013. Sensitivity to changing precipitation and land cover was assessed by varying the precipitation amount during the flood and forest cover and soil storage capacity in forest ecozone. The results show that runoff efficiency increases rapidly with antecedent snowpack and soil moisture storage with the highest runoff response to rainfall from locations in the basin where there are recently melted or actively melting snowpacks and resulting high soil moisture or frozen soils. The impact of forest canopy on flooding is negligible, but flood peak doubles if forest canopy removal is accompanied by 50% reduction in water storage capacity in the basin. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Agricultural soil erosion is largely attributed to arable intensification and increased mechanization. Runoff from arable land and intensively managed grassland transports sediment and contaminants across the landscape and into watercourses, causing crop loss, land degradation, and water quality issues. One low-cost and low-maintenance nature-based mitigation approach is the implementation of vegetated buffer strips (VBS): grassland sited along field margins to trap sediment and contaminants, reducing transportation and diffuse pollution rates. GIS modelling using remotely sensed landscape indices and land parcel data can provide an efficient means of identifying priority areas for intervention at sub-catchment or farm system scales. We develop and test a scalable runoff risk model in the lower Rother catchment, West Sussex. The model uses the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) applied to satellite images as an erodibility proxy and identifies locations along pathways that are conceivably at greatest risk of sediment accumulation and transfer, guided by field observations. We assess current and historical field boundaries near high-risk locations, evaluating the potential capacity of their margins to contribute to runoff risk reduction using an innovative ranking system. Recommendations are made for VBS implementation and the value of historical field boundary and margin restoration is discussed. Our method offers a rapid approach with minimal data requirements to identify high-risk sediment runoff locations and priority sites for intervention. The tool has the potential to guide decision-makers responsible for targeting and implementing soil erosion and runoff control measures such as VBS, while also maximizing agri-environmental and cultural benefits.  相似文献   

6.
The East River in South China plays a key role in the socio-economic development in the region and surrounding areas. Adequate understanding of the hydrologic response to land use change is crucial to develop sustainable water resources management strategies in the region. The present study makes an attempt to evaluate the possible impacts of land use change on hydrologic response using a numerical model and corresponding available vegetation datasets. The variable infiltration capacity model is applied to simulate runoff responses to several land use scenarios within the basin (e.g., afforestation, deforestation, and reduction in farmland area) for the period 1952–2000. The results indicate that annual runoff is reduced by 3.5 % (32.3 mm) when 25 % of the current grassland area (including grasslands and wooded grasslands, with 46.8 % of total vegetation cover) is converted to forestland. Afforestation results in reduction in the monthly flow volume, peak flow, and low flow, but with significantly greater reduction in low flow for the basin. The simulated annual runoff increases by about 1.4 % (12.6 mm) in the deforestation scenario by changing forestland (including deciduous broadleaf, evergreen needleleaf, and broadleaf, with 15.6 % of total vegetation cover) to grassland area. Increase in seasonal runoff occurs mainly in autumn for converting cropland to bare soil.  相似文献   

7.
Since the 1960s, dramatic changes have taken place in land-use patterns characterized by the persistent expansion of cultivated land and a continuous decrease in natural woodland and grassland in the arid inland river basins of China. It is very important to assess the effects of such land-use changes on the hydrological processes so vital for water resource management and sustainable development on the catchment scale. The Maying River catchment, a typical arid inland watershed located in the middle of the Hexi Corridor in northwest China, was the site chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land-use changes. The annual runoff, base flow, maximum peak flow, and typical seasonal runoff in both spring and autumn flood periods were selected as the variables in the hydrological processes. Statistical-trend analysis and curvilinear regression were utilized to detect the trends in hydrological variables while eliminating the climatic influence. The relationship between cultivated land-use and hydrological variables was analyzed based on four periods of land-use variation data collected since 1965. A runoff model was established composed of two factors, i.e., cultivated land use and precipitation. The impact of land use changes, especially in the large ar- eas of upstream woodland and grassland turned into cultivated lands since 1967, has resulted in a mean annual runoff decrease of 28.12%, a base flow decline of 35.32%, a drop in the maximum peak discharge of 35.77%, and mean discharge decreases in spring and autumn of 36.05% and 24.87% respectively, of which the contribution of cultivated land expansion to the influence of annual runoff amounts to 77%-80%, with the contribution to the influence of spring discharge being 73%-81%, and that to the influence of base flow reaching 62%-65%. Thus, a rational regulation policy of land use patterns is vitally important to the sustainable use of water resources and the proper development of the entire catchment.  相似文献   

8.
The impacts of historical land cover changes witnessed between 1973 and 2000 on the hydrologic response of the Nyando River Basin were investigated. The land cover changes were obtained through consistent classifications of selected Landsat satellite images. Their effects on runoff peak discharges and volumes were subsequently assessed using selected hydrologic models for runoff generation and routing available within the HEC‐HMS. Physically based parameters of the models were estimated from the land cover change maps together with a digital elevation model and soil datasets of the basin. Observed storm events for the simulation were selected and their interpolated spatial distributions obtained using the univariate ordinary Kriging procedure. The simulated flows from the 14 sub‐catchments were routed downstream afterwards to obtain the accrued effects in the entire river basin. Model results obtained generally revealed significant and varying increases in the runoff peak discharges and volumes within the basin. In the upstream sub‐catchments with higher rates of deforestation, increases between 30 and 47% were observed in the peak discharge. In the entire basin, however, the flood peak discharges and volumes increased by at least 16 and 10% respectively during the entire study period. The study successfully outlined the hydrological consequences of the eminent land cover changes and hence the need for sustainable land use and catchment management strategies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Upland agricultural land management activities such as grazing, vegetation burning, and bare ground restoration impact hydrological elements of headwater catchments, many of which may be important for downstream flood peaks (e.g., overland flow and soil water storage). However, there is poor understanding of how these management practices affect river flow peaks during high magnitude rainfall events. Using the distributed TOPMODEL, spatial configurations of land management were modelled to predict flood response in an upland catchment, which contains different regions operating subsidized agricultural stewardship schemes. Heavy grazing leading to soil compaction and loss of vegetation cover in stewardship regions covering 79.8% of the catchment gave a 42‐min earlier flow peak, which was 82.2% higher (under a 1‐hr 15‐mm storm) than the current simulated hydrograph. Light grazing over the same regions of the catchment had much less influence on river flow peaks (18 min earlier and 32.9% increase). Rotational burning (covering 8.8% of the catchment), most of which is located in the headwater areas, increased the peak by 3.2% in the same rainfall event. Vegetation restoration with either Eriophorum or Sphagnum (higher density) in bare areas (5.8%) of the catchment provided a reduction of flood peak (3.9% and 5.2% in the 15‐mm storm event), whereas the same total area revegetated with Sphagnum in riparian regions delivered a much larger decrease (15.0%) in river flow peaks. We show that changes of vegetation cover in highly sensitive areas (e.g., near‐stream zones) generate large impacts on flood peaks. Thus, it is possible to design spatially distributed management systems for upland catchments, which reduce flood peaks while at the same time ensuring economic viability for upland farmers.  相似文献   

10.
Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Soil hydrophobic effects on infiltration and catchment runoff   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
After dry summers or drought, eucalypt forest soils at two sites in southeastern Australia developed hydrophobic or non-wetting surface characteristics that reduced infiltration, measured using a sprinkling infiltrometer. At one site the development of hydrophobic conditions caused the rainfall to runoff conversion efficiency of a forested catchment to increase from 5 per cent to 15 per cent. Under non-hydrophobic conditions at this site, grassland always generated more runoff than forest. However, one major rainfall-runoff was recorded at a time of highly hydrophobic forest soil conditions and this storm generated greater runoff on the forested catchment than the grassland catchment. At the second site forest soils have naturally highly conductive surface layers because of a dense network of macropores and pathways for preferential flow. Hydrophobic conditions produced by drought caused soil water movement to be confined to only a few of the larger macropores exposed to surface ponded water. Even so, infiltration rates remained relatively high so that the impacts of hydrophobic soils were not translated into increased catchment runoff as at the first site.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract

This paper describes the use of a simple two stage rainfall-runoff model in which a curve number (CN) principle is used to calculate the soil water content and, subsequently, the rainfall contribution to direct runoff and groundwater flow. The maximum soil water retention, S, is used to express various characteristics of a catchment (infiltration rate, soil cover and land use, as in the CN method) relevant to flood formation. Using historical flood events, the model is calibrated, and the statistical distribution parameters of peak flows determined. With the same historical input data scenarios (rainfall), sets of flood hydrographs are simulated for various values of the parameter S, and corresponding distribution parameters of peak flows are determined. This procedure is used to demonstrate possible changes in flood regime to be expected due to changes of the catchment soil properties and its vegetation cover. A case study is presented for the River Hron catchment, area 582 km2, in the mountainous region of central Slovakia.  相似文献   

13.
Extreme rainfall events (>50 mm day?1) falling on cultivated land which is relatively bare of vegetation cover, typically give rise to networks of rills and gullies with ephemeral gullies in depressions and valley bottoms. Farming practices such as the removal of field boundaries, the presence of wheelings and rolled surfaces encourage runoff. The coincidence of vulnerable crops such as maize, potatoes and sugar beet with erodible soils and sloping sites may lead to high rates of erosion associated with single events or wet seasons. Not all extreme rainfall events lead to runoff and erosion, this depends on timing with respect to the growing crop. Rates of erosion associated with extreme events may be high but when placed in a long‐term temporal context, they tend to be quite low. Extreme events frequently lead to off‐site impacts most notably muddy flooding of properties and the pollution of watercourses. Landscapes may be protected from extreme events by standard soil conservation techniques; off‐site impacts may similarly be alleviated by flood‐protection measures. In both cases, the challenge is to put in place adequate economic incentives, social pressures and governmental policy frameworks to incentivise effective action. Predicted rainfall changes in the future include wetter winters and increases in rain per rain‐day. In this case, the risk of erosion on cultivated land will increase. However, erosion mitigation strategies should still address the issue of the incidence of high‐risk crops on vulnerable sites. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Hydrogeomorphic processes influencing alluvial gully erosion were evaluated at multiple spatial and temporal scales across the Mitchell River fluvial megafan in tropical Queensland, Australia. Longitudinal changes in floodplain inundation were quantified using river gauge data, local stage recorders and HEC‐RAS modelling based on LiDAR topographic data. Intra‐ and interannual gully scarp retreat rates were measured using daily time‐lapse photographs and annual GPS surveys. Erosion was analysed in response to different water sources and associated erosion processes across the floodplain perirheic zone, including direct rainfall, infiltration‐excess runoff, soil‐water seepage, river backwater and overbank flood inundation. The frequency of river flood inundation of alluvial gullies changed longitudinally according to river incision and confinement. Near the top of the megafan, flood water was contained within the macrochannel up to the 100‐year recurrence interval, but river backwater still partially inundated adjacent gullies eroding into Pleistocene alluvium. In downstream Holocene floodplains, inundation of alluvial gullies occurred beyond the 2‐ to 5‐year recurrence interval and contributed significantly to total annual erosion. However, most gully scarp retreat at all sites was driven by direct rainfall and infiltration‐excess runoff, with the 24‐h rainfall total being the most predictive variable. The remaining variability can be explained by seasonal vegetative conditions, complex cycles of soil wetting and drying, tension crack development, near‐surface pore‐water pressure, soil block undermining from spalling and overland flow, and soil property heterogeneity. Implications for grazing management impacts on soil surface and perennial grass conditions include effects on direct rainfall erosion, water infiltration, runoff volume, water concentration along tracks, and the resistance of highly dispersible soils to gully initiation or propagation under intense tropical rainfall. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
The extent to which forests, relative to shorter vegetation, mitigate flood peak discharges remains controversial and relatively poorly researched, with only a few significant field studies. Considering the effect purely of change of vegetation cover, peak flow magnitude comparisons for paired catchments have suggested that forests do not mitigate large floods, whereas flood frequency comparisons have shown that forests mitigate frequencies over all magnitudes of flood. This study investigates the apparent inconsistency using field-based evidence from four contrasting field programmes at scales of 0.34–3.1 km2. Repeated patterns are identified that provide strong evidence of real effects with physical explanations. Magnitude and frequency comparisons are both relevant to the impact of forests on peak discharges but address different questions. Both can show a convergence of response between forested and grassland/logged states at the highest recorded flows but the associated return periods may be quite variable and are subject to estimation uncertainty. For low to moderate events, the forested catchments have a lower peak magnitude for a given frequency than the grassland/logged catchments. Depending on antecedent soil saturation, a given storm may nevertheless generate peak discharges of the same magnitude for both catchment states but these peaks will have different return periods. The effect purely of change in vegetation cover may be modified by additional forestry interventions, such as road networks and drainage ditches which, by effectively increasing the drainage density, may increase peak flows for all event magnitudes. For all the sites, forest cover substantially reduces annual runoff.  相似文献   

16.
Some 60% of the agricultural land in the UK is grassland. This is mostly located in the wetter uplands of the west and north, with the majority intensively managed as permanent pasture. Despite its extent, there is a lack of knowledge regarding how agricultural practices have altered the hydrological behaviour of the underlying soils relative to the adjacent moorland covered by semi-natural grassland. Near-surface soil moisture content is an expression of the changes that have taken place and is critical in the generation of flood-producing overland flows. This study aims to develop a pioneering paired-plot approach, producing 1,536 moisture measurements at each of the monitoring dates throughout the studied year, that were subsequently analysed by a comparison of frequency distributions, visual cum geostatistical investigation of spatial patterns and mixed-effects regression modelling. The analysis demonstrated that the practices taking place in the pasture (ploughing, re-seeding and drainage) reduced the natural diversity in moisture patterns. Compared to adjacent moorland, the topsoil dried much faster in spring with the effects requiring offset with moisture from slurry applications in summer. With the onset of autumn rains, these applications then made the topsoil wetter than the moorland, heightening the likelihood of flood-producing overland flow. During the sampling within one such storm event, the adjacent moorland was almost as wet as the pasture with both visibly generating overland flow. These contrasts in soil moisture were statistically significant throughout. Further, they highlight the need to scale-up the monitoring with numerous plot pairs to see if the observed highly dynamic, contrasting behaviour is present at the landscape scale. Such research is fundamental to designing appropriate agricultural interventions to deliver sustainable sward production for livestock or methods of mitigating overland-flow incidence that would otherwise heighten flood risk or threaten water quality in rivers.  相似文献   

17.
A method is presented to evaluate the storm runoff contributions from different land‐use class areas within a river basin using the geographical information system‐based hydrological model WetSpa. The modelling is based on division of the catchment into a grid mesh. Each cell has a unique response function independent of the functioning of other cells. Summation of the flow responses from the cells with the same land‐use type results in the storm runoff contribution from these areas. The model was applied on the Steinsel catchment in the Alzette river basin, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, with 52 months of meteo‐hydrological measurements. The simulation results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land‐use areas in this catchment, and this tends to increase for small floods and for the dry‐season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to recession flow. It is demonstrated that the relative contribution from urban areas decreases with flow coefficient, that cropland relative contribution is nearly constant, and that the relative contribution from grassland and woodland increases with flow coefficient with regard to their percentage of land‐use class areas within the study catchment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Impact studies of catchment management in the developing world rarely include detailed hydrological components. Here, changes in the hydrological response of a 200‐ha catchment in north Ethiopia are investigated. The management included various soil and water conservation measures such as the construction of dry masonry stone bunds and check dams, the abandonment of post‐harvest grazing, and the establishment of woody vegetation. Measurements at the catchment outlet indicated a runoff depth of 5 mm or a runoff coefficient (RC) of 1·6% in the rainy season of 2006. Combined with runoff measurements at plot scale, this allowed calculating the runoff curve number (CN) for various land uses and land management techniques. The pre‐implementation runoff depth was then predicted using the CN values and a ponding adjustment factor, representing the abstraction of runoff induced by the 242 check dams in gullies. Using the 2006 rainfall depths, the runoff depth for the 2000 land management situation was predicted to be 26·5 mm (RC = 8%), in line with current RCs of nearby catchments. Monitoring of the ground water level indicated a rise after catchment management. The yearly rise in water table after the onset of the rains (ΔT) relative to the water surplus (WS) over the same period increased between 2002–2003 (ΔT/WS = 3·4) and 2006 (ΔT/WS >11·1). Emerging wells and irrigation are other indicators for improved water supply in the managed catchment. Cropped fields in the gullies indicate that farmers are less frightened for the destructive effects of flash floods. Due to increased soil water content, the crop growing period is prolonged. It can be concluded that this catchment management has resulted in a higher infiltration rate and a reduction of direct runoff volume by 81% which has had a positive influence on the catchment water balance. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
In the cold semiarid Canadian prairies, groundwater recharge is focussed under numerous topographic depressions, in which snowmelt runoff converges. Agricultural land uses on the uplands surrounding the depressions affect snow accumulation, snowmelt infiltration, evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture dynamics, thereby influencing snowmelt runoff and depression-focussed recharge. The objective of this study is to compare the differences in hydrological processes under two common land uses in the Canadian prairies, namely grazed grass and annual crop, and examine how they affect groundwater recharge. A short-term (3 years) paired catchment study was used for detailed observation of hydrological processes in two depressions, supplemented by a longer-term (17 years) data set covering a larger scale to quantify the differences in snowmelt runoff between the two land uses. Compared to the grazed grassland, the cropland had a shorter and more intense period of ET, and root water uptake restricted to the shallower (top 0–80 cm) soil zone. The amount of snowmelt runoff was greater in the grazed grassland primarily due to a higher amount of snow accumulation, which was dictated by differences in topography. This finding was contrary to previous studies in the Canadian prairies that indicated substantially smaller snowmelt runoff in ungrazed grassland, but was consistent with the larger-scale remote sensing results, which showed only a marginal difference between grazed grasslands and croplands. Groundwater recharge rates were estimated using the chloride mass balance method for the present condition using “modern” pore water containing tritium. The rates were similar between the grazed grassland and croplands, implying similarity in snowmelt runoff characteristics. These results suggest that groundwater recharge will continue to be focussed under depressions in the future, though the amount and seasonality of recharge may be influenced by warmer winters.  相似文献   

20.
An essential part of hydrological research focuses on hydrological extremes, such as river peak flows and associated floods, because of their large impact on economy, environment, and human life. These extremes can be affected by potential future environmental change, including global climate change and land cover change. In this paper, the relative impact of both climate change and urban expansion on the peak flows and flood extent is investigated for a small‐scale suburban catchment in Belgium. A rainfall‐runoff model was coupled to a hydrodynamic model in order to simulate the present‐day and future river streamflow. The coupled model was calibrated based on a series of measured water depths and, after model validation, fed with different climate change and urban expansion scenarios in order to evaluate the relative impact of both driving factors on the peak flows and flood extent. The three climate change scenarios that were used (dry, wet winter, wet summer) were based on a statistical downscaling of 58 different RCM and GCM scenario runs. The urban expansion scenarios were based on three different urban growth rates (low, medium, high urban expansion) that were set up by means of an extrapolation of the observed trend of urban expansion. The results suggest that possible future climate change is the main source of uncertainty affecting changes in peak flow and flood extent. The urban expansion scenarios show a more consistent trend. The potential damage related to a flood is, however, mainly influenced by land cover changes that occur in the floodplain. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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