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应用模糊数学中的模糊优先比方法，对东北地区未来地震危险进行判断。所得结果表明，在给定的５个地区中，吉林省的四平地区和内蒙古的布特哈旗地区的地震危险性最大，存在未来发生中强震的可能。 相似文献
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Marine protist communities developed in laboratory microecosystems have been used to study lead tolerance and toxicity. Lead was added at periodic intervals during 240 h. 1 mg · 1–1 was the concentration tested. The lead caused a decrease of the total number of protist species, a phenomenon reflected in the diversity values. The general trophic structure remained unchanged. Bacterivores and photoautotrophs were the most abundant trophic groups in the control. 48 h after the addition of the toxic solution, a significant reduction in the number of photoautotrophs was observed. Bacterivores were affected until 96 h. The protist biomass values showed a 60% reduction. There were species presented only to the control and others found only in the lead treatment. The effects caused by the lead could be explained by the characteristics of the physico-chemical parameters, which reduced the toxicity of the metal. 相似文献
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Comparison of different methods describing the peak runoff contributing areas during floods 
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下载免费PDF全文 In the last few years, the scientific community has developed several hydrological models aimed at the simulation of hydrological processes acting at the basin scale. In this context, the portion of peak runoff contributing areas represents a critical variable for a correct estimate of surface runoff. Such areas are strongly influenced by the saturated portion of a river basin (influenced by antecedent conditions) but may also evolve during a specific rainfall event. In the recent years, we have developed 2 theoretically derived probability distributions that attempt to interpret these 2 processes adopting daily runoff and flood‐peak time series. The probability density functions (PDFs) obtained by these 2 schematisations were compared for humid river basins in southern Italy. Results highlighted that the PDFs of the peak runoff contributing areas can be interpreted by a gamma distribution and that the PDF of the relative saturated area provides a good interpretation of such process that can be used for flood prediction. 相似文献
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A procedure is proposed for the reconfiguration of the macroseismic planes relative to earthquakes that, being characterized by a reduced number of points of observed intensity due to a lack of information, or having the epicenter very close to the coastline, are characterized by an incomplete distribution of observed intensity levels. The design of a plurality of virtual areas, through which a distribution of intensity consistent with an anisotropic model of attenuation is depicted, allows a reliable determination of macroseismic parameters of the same seismic event. 相似文献
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Gatot E. Susilo Koichi Yamamoto Tsuyoshi Imai Yoshiyuki Ishii Hiroshi Fukami Masahiko Sekine 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):539-548
Abstract The effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, is demonstrated. This research used rainfall data collected between 1978 and 2008. The results suggest a relationship between ENSO events and the trend in rainfall observed in the study area. Further analyses show that El Niño events have a stronger effect on the rainfall compared to La Niña events. El Niño events were also correlated to the increase in the number of days with less than 1 mm of rainfall in the dry season. The analysis reveals that the impact of El Niño events on rainfall in dry seasons is intensifying annually. Furthermore, ENSO events are not the only factors affecting rainfall trends in the observed area. Other factors, such as deforestation, may also affect the trend. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Susilo, G.E., Yamamoto, K., Imai, T., Ishii, Y., Fukami, H., and Sekine, M., 2013. The effect of ENSO on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 539–548. 相似文献
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The Wudalianchi volcano is a modern volcano erupted since the Holocene.Its frequent occurrence of the small earthquake is considered to be indicator of active dormancy volcano.The S wave velocity structure is inferred from the receiver function for the crust and upper mantle of the Wudalianchi volcano area.The results show that the low velocity structure of Swave is widely distributed undemeath the volcano area and part of the low-velocity-zone located at shallow depth in the Wudalianchi volcano area.The low velocity structure is related to the seismicity.The Moho interface is not clear undemeath the volcano area,which may be regard to be an nec-essary condition for the lava upwelling.Therefore,we infer that the Wudalianchi volcano has the deep structural condition for the volcano activity and may be alive again. 相似文献
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大型超大型金属矿床综合信息成矿预测方法研究 总被引：22，自引：12，他引：10
大型超大型矿床在其时空分布、控矿因素、形成机制、成矿模式诸方面与一般中小型矿床有相似甚至雷同之处,也有其特殊、独特方面,研究预测大型超大型矿床相当复杂,需要从不同学科、不同侧面、不同角度、不同途径、不同方法及不同思路进行综合研究。本文给出大型超大型矿床预测的综合信息方法,认为地质地球物理地球化学多学科综合分析是今后找矿的最主要途径。通过对大型、超大型矿床的趋群性特点分析,给出了矿床密集区的概念以及圈定的基本原则和边界条件。通过对大型超大型矿床发现途径的分析,指出大型超大型矿床的分布具有可预测性。并表述了综合信息预测方法流程,以矿床密集区为模型单元,以异常密集区为预测单元,通过地质、地球物理、地球化学等综合信息控矿地质变量的提取和合理赋值,加上数理统计方法的合理应用,达到对大型超大型矿床的预测目的。 相似文献
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A better knowledge of soil erosion by water is essential for planning effective soil and water conservation practices in semi‐arid Mediterranean environments. The special climatic and hydrological characteristics of these areas, however, make accurate soil loss predictions difficult, particularly in the absence of minimal data. Two zero‐order experimental microcatchments (328–759 m2), representative of an extensive semi‐arid watershed with a high potential erosion risk in the south‐east of Spain, were selected and monitored for 3 years (1991–93) in order to provide information on the hydrological and erosional response. A pluviogram and hydrograph recorded data at 1‐min intervals during each storm, after which the soil loss was collected and the particle size of the sediment was analysed. Runoff coefficients of about 9% and soil losses of between 84·83 and 298·9 g m?2 year?1 were observed in the area. Rapid response times (geometric mean values lower than 2 h) and low runoff thresholds (mean values between 3·5 to 5·9 mm) were the norm in the experimental areas. A rain intensity of over 15 mm h?1 was considered as ‘erosive rainfall’ in these areas because of the total soil loss and the transport capacity of the overland flow. Differences in pore‐size distribution explained the different hydrological responses observed between areas. The erosional response was more complex and basically seemed to be determined by soil aggregate stability and topographical properties. A greater proportion of finer particles in the eroded material than in the soil matrix indicated selective erosion and the transport of finer material. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Maps of the potential waterlogging of soils were generated using hypotheses about the effect of topography on the soil water regime inspired by Beven and Kirkby's concept of saturation overland flow. The procedure was validated by comparing the simulated maps with maps derived from a 1: 25 000 soil survey for two contrasting catchments. The value and limitations of the method are discussed in the light of this comparison. The approach proposed here is relevant to modelling the distribution of intensely waterlogged soils, provided the relationship between bedrock and the limit values is established. This approach can be used for several purposes: (1) to distinguish positional waterlogging from other types of waterlogging; (2) to control the quality and consistency of waterlogging maps; and (3) to create soil water regime maps for non-surveyed catchments. Conversely, soil water regime maps can be compared with contributing areas simulated by hydrological distributed models for validation purposes. 相似文献
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CONTRIBUTIONS OF TUNNEL EROSION TO SEDIMENT YIELD IN A SEMI-ARID BASIN IN THE LOESS PLATEAU OF CHINA
T.X. ZHU Q.G. CAI S.H.LUK Dr. Department of Geography University of Minnesota-Duluth Duluth MN USA. Tel: --. Fax: --. Email: tzhu@d.umn.edu Researcher Institute of Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 《国际泥沙研究》2000,(4)
1 INTRODUCTIONSubsurface erosion has been increasingly recognized as a significant hillslope geomorphologic process(Carson and ~y, 1972; McCaig, 1983;, Harvey, 1982;Bryan and Harvey, 1985; Crouch andMcGarrity, 1986; Walsh and Howeds, 1988). However, most of the studies were conducted in hubedareas, especially in Britain (e.g. Gilman and Newson, 1980; Jones, 1981; Wilson and Small, 1984; Jones,1987; Jones et al, 1997). Jones and Crane (1984) found that soil piping contributes about … 相似文献
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Recent studies in many developing countries have shown that Small Scale Independent Providers (SSIPs) in low-income areas (LIAs) are practical alternatives to water utilities. This study explored supply dynamics and quality of alternative water sources in four LIAs of Lilongwe City in Malawi using qualitative and quantitative methods. Household-level surveys (n = 120) and transect walks were employed to determine the socio-economic activities in the areas. One-on-one discussions were made with water source owners (SSIPs) (n = 24). Data on policy and institutional frameworks was collected through desktop study and Key Informant Interviews (n = 25). Quality of the water sources (shallow wells and boreholes) was determined by collecting grab samples (n = 24) in triplicate using 500 mL bottles. Selected physico-chemical and microbiological parameters were measured: pH, EC, TDS, turbidity, water temperature, salinity, K, Na, Ca, Mg, Cl−, F−, NO3−, alkalinity, water hardness, Fecal coliform (FC) and Faecal Streptococci (FS) bacteria. Water quality data was compared with Malawi Bureau of Standards (MBS) and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for drinking water. Shallow wells were reported (65%, n = 120) to be the main source of water for household use in all areas. Some policies like prohibition of boreholes and shallow wells in City locations were in conflict with other provisions of water supply, sanitation and housing. High levels of FC (0–2100 cfu/100 mL) and FS (0–1490 cfu/100 mL) at several sites (>90%, n = 24) suggest water contamination likely to impact on human health. This calls for upgrading and recognition of the water sources for improved water service delivery. 相似文献
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Mountain regions throughout the world face intense development pressures associated with recreational and tourism uses. Despite these pressures, much of the research on bio‐geophysical impacts of humans in mountain regions has focused on the effects of natural resource extraction. This paper describes findings from the first 3 years of a study examining high elevation watershed processes in a region undergoing alpine resort development. Our study is designed as a paired‐watershed experiment. The Ranch Brook watershed (9·6 km2) is a relatively pristine, forested watershed and serves as the undeveloped ‘control’ basin. West Branch (11·7 km2) encompasses an existing alpine ski resort, with approximately 17% of the basin occupied by ski trails and impervious surfaces, and an additional 7% slated for clearing and development. Here, we report results for water years 2001–2003 of streamflow and water quality dynamics for these watersheds. Precipitation increases significantly with elevation in the watersheds, and winter precipitation represents 36–46% of annual precipitation. Artificial snowmaking from water within West Branch watershed currently augments annual precipitation by only 3–4%. Water yield in the developed basin exceeded that in the control by 18–36%. Suspended sediment yield was more than two and a half times greater and fluxes of all major solutes were higher in the developed basin. Our study is the first to document the effects of existing ski area development on hydrology and water quality in the northeastern US and will serve as an important baseline for evaluating the effects of planned resort expansion activities in this area. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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将线性反演理论与正则化法相结合，提出一个火山地区二维自然电位（ＳＰ）异常反演方法．地下岩浆活动（对流体）是引起自电异常的极化源，反演的目的是计算地下视极化强度分布和极化源中心位置．可以通过用已知的各种资料改变地下极化源区域（简称源区）的方式来进行多次反演，以便获得一个比较合理的地下视极化强度分布模型．最后，分别给出意大利和墨西哥的两个火山地区的自然电位异常分析结果． 相似文献
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Monitoring of geophysical conditions of marine sedimentary basins is necessary for predicting seismic events and for adaptation of geothermal technologies for seismically active (as a rule) sea bottom geothermal areas. These conditions are characterized by seismo-hydro-electromagnetic (EM) geophysical field interaction in the presence of gravity. Based on the main physical principles, geophysical and petrophysical data, we formulate a mathematical model of seismo-hydro-EM interaction in a basin of a marginal sea and calculate the transformation of a seismic excitation in the upper mantle under the central part of the sea of Japan into the low-frequency (0.1 to 10 Hz) EM signals at the top of the sea bottom sedimentary layer, at the sea surface and in the atmosphere up to the lower boundary of the ionosphere. Physics of the EM generation and propagation process is shown including: generation of EM waves in the upper mantle layer M by a seismic wave from under M, spatial modulation of diffusive EM waves by a seismic wave, stopping of the EM wave arrived (before the seismic P wave) from the upper mantle at the top of the sediments because of the high electric conductivity of seawater (3.5 S/m), immediate penetration of the EM wave through the seawater thickness after the delayed seismic P wave shock into the sea bottom, and EM emission from the sea surface into the atmosphere. Let us note that the EM signal in the sea bottom sediments is the first measurable signal of a seismic activation of geological structures beneath the seafloor and this signal is protected by seawater from the influence ionosphere disturbances. Amplitude of the computed magnetic signals (300, 200, 50, and 30 pT at the ocean–atmosphere interface and at the height of 10, 30 and 50 km, respectively), their predominant frequency (0.25 Hz), the delay of the seismic P wave in regard to the magnetic signal for the receivers at the shore (20 s), the amplitude of temperature disturbances in sediments (up to 0.02 K), the parameters of the long (150 km) tsunami wave of a small (up to 20 cm) amplitude far from the shore and other values that characterize the seismo-hydro-EM process are of the orders observed. Recommendations for the EM monitoring of dynamic processes beneath seafloor geothermal areas are given. 相似文献
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IntroductionCHEN (1981), GENG, et al (1980), YAO (1981) and others have found out that different stress paths can lead to fracture. They have further studied the precursory features of wave velocity ratio, acoustic emission, and so on, in this situation. YIN (1987), YIN and YIN (1991), Yin, et al (1994, 1995, 2000) have put forward the concept of loading-unloading response ratio. When a mechanical test system is in a stable state, the path of its response to loading is the same as that… 相似文献
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城市范围内直下型活动断裂突发错动产生的直下型大地震 ,直接威胁城市和人民生命财产的安全。城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价是为城市减灾服务的一项系统工程 ,也是活动构造研究面临的一项新的工作。这一工作的核心是要解决城市范围内的断裂定位、断裂最新活动、断裂的深部背景、断裂的地震危险性和地面错动危险性及减灾对策。为了更好地理解这一问题 ,作者用“有没有、活不活、深不深 ,震不震 ,错不错 ,好对策”这 6句话来表示其核心内容。文中对这些问题作了具体的说明 相似文献