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1.
Mass movements varying in type and size, some of which are periodically reactivated, affect the urban area of Avigliano. The disturbed and remoulded masses consist of sandy–silty or silty–clayey plastic material interbedded with stone fragments and conglomerate blocks. Five landslides that were markedly liable to rainfall-associated instability phenomena were selected. The relationships between landslides and rainfall were investigated using a hydrological and statistical model based on long-term series of daily rainfall data. The model was used to determine the return period of cumulative daily rainfall over 1–180 days. The resulting hydrological and statistical findings are discussed with the aim of identifying the rainfall duration most critical to landslides. The concept of a precipitation threshold was generalized by defining some probability classes of cumulative rainfall. These classes indicate the thresholds beyond which reactivation is likely to occur. The probability classes are defined according to the return period of the cumulative rainfall concomitant with landslide reactivation. 相似文献
2.
Landslides are a main cause of human and economic losses worldwide. For this reason, landslide hazard assessment and the capacity to predict this phenomenon have been topics of great interest within the scientific community for the implementation of early warning systems. Although several models have been proposed to forecast shallow landslides triggered by rainfall, few models have incorporated geotechnical factors into a complete hydrological model of a basin that can simulate the storage and movement of rainwater through the soil profile. These basin and full hydrological models have adopted a physically based approach. This paper develops a conceptual and physically based model called open and distributed hydrological simulation and landslides—SHIA_Landslide ( Simulación HIdrológica Abierta, or SHIA, in Spanish)—that is supported by geotechnical and hydrological features occurring on a basin-wide scale in tropical and mountainous terrains. SHIA_Landslide is an original and significant contribution that offers a new perspective with which to analyse shallow landslide processes by incorporating a comprehensive distributed hydrological tank model that includes water storage in the soil coupled with a classical analysis of infinite slope stability under saturated conditions. SHIA_Landslide can be distinguished by the following: (i) its capacity to capture surface topography and effects concerning the subsurface flow; (ii) its use of digital terrain model (DTM) to establish the relationships among cells, geomorphological parameters, slope angle, direction, etc.; (iii) its continuous simulation of rainfall data over long periods and event simulations of specific storms; (iv) its consideration of the effects of horizontal and vertical flow; and (vi) its inclusion of a hydrologically complete water process that allows for hydrological calibration. SHIA_Landslide can be combined with real-time rainfall data and implemented in early warning systems. 相似文献
3.
在库岸边坡稳定性分析中,按传统的滑坡稳这定性计算方法搜索滑面,本身就是一项繁琐的工作,库水位变动的影响使问题变得更加复杂。数值分析方法在这方面就体现出其优越性。本文采用专业岩土工程软件FLAC^3D计算软件,在枯水期和洪水期对杨家坝滑坡进行了分析,研究了两个时期滑坡的变形与受力状态,判定了滑坡的稳定性。结果表明,利用数值方法分析库岸边坡稳定性的方法是值得借鉴的。 相似文献
4.
This study aimed to identify displacement properties of landslide masses at the initiation of failure and factors that affect the landslides activities in areas where quick clay is found. We set up a research site in a quick clay deposit area in Norway and monitored the displacements of landslide masses and meteorological and hydrological factors for a long period of time using an automatic monitoring system. The system collected data for two landslides that occurred at the site from the start of their movement until their ultimate collapse. The two landslides that were monitored showed definite secondary and tertiary creep stages before they collapsed. One of the landslides moved from the secondary stage to the tertiary creep stage when another landslide occurred nearby. The tertiary stage of this landslide showed reconstruction of short primary, secondary, and tertiary creep stages. These phenomena suggested that (1) the stress at the end of the landslide mass was released during the nearby landslide, and (2) a new stress distribution was formed in the landslide mass. The critical strain differed for 14 times between the two landslide masses we monitored. The difference was likely attributable to the difference in the contents of quick clay, which shows small critical stress against slope failure, as well as topological factors. Our analyses of the effects of hydrological and meteorological factors on landslides showed that the precipitation of 3 and 10 days before six slope failures as the final stages of the landslides that had occurred in the research area was no different from the mean precipitation of periods that showed no slope failure, suggesting that precipitation had no direct effects on the collapse of the landslide masses. On the other hand, the traveling velocities of the landslide masses during the secondary creep stage, which was prior to their collapse, were affected by the water content of the soil and precipitation (and the amount of snowmelt water), but was little correlated with the pore-water pressure of the quick clay layer. We also found that the presence of snow cover scarcely affected landslide movements. 相似文献
5.
Mathematical models for forecasting landslides and mudflow movements triggered by heavy rainfalls are useful tools to develop warning systems and hazard mitigation strategy for loss reduction. In the present paper, an application of Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfalls (FLaIR) hydrological model, correlating the rainfall amount and landslide or mudflow movement occurrences, will be performed. Model application presented here refers to the mudflows of Sarno, Southern Italy, and is based on hourly precipitation data available from a real-time rain gauge installed immediately after the catastrophic event that occurred on May 1998. The application is extended from October 1998 to May 2002. The main objective is to perform a backanalysis in order to verify the reliability of the proposed scheme for use in a warning system. Among the most interesting results of the application, the relatively few false alarms for populations given by the model may be highlighted. The FLaIR model is more useful when it is integrated with a probabilistic model for forecasting precipitation depths during a storm event at an hourly scale. By stochastic modelling of hourly precipitation, it is possible to estimate the probability of reaching the alarm threshold before allowing civil protection actions. 相似文献
6.
On the basis of geological and geomorphological surveys, landslide phenomena are analysed on a slope along a stretch of the Adriatic coast, near Petacciato (Molise, Italy). Locally, a blue clay sequence of Pleistocene outcrops, stratified with silty-sandy layers; bedding dips 3–8°NE and the slope has a similar attitude. This sequence evolves upwards to sands and conglomerates, with thickness of up to 40 m, on which the built-up area is located. Several episodes of landslide reactivation occurred in the past century, involving the zone between the built-up area and the sea, along a coastal slope of over 2000 m long and 200 m high. Important roads and railway lines have been heavily damaged as well as the town itself. The typology of the movement is a rotational–translational slide; the displacement reaches tens of centimetres at each reactivation episode along the entire coastal slope, extending well beyond the shore line. Detailed studies already exists, but different mechanism failures have been proposed to explain the landslide phenomena. In this study, a new failure mechanism is proposed, (sudden spreading of Terzaghi, K., Peck, R.B., 1948. Soil Mechanics in Engineering Practice. Wiley and Sons New York) and analytical approaches have been adopted to evaluate the slope stability, based on the geotechnical and monitoring data and the geometrical and geological features of the slope. 相似文献
7.
[摘 要] 为了分析卡拉水电站工程区某滑坡体的稳定性,通过对其滑坡成因、地形地貌、地质构造、
岩土力学参数敏感性等内在因素分析可知,滑坡体随着坡面隆起和坡内扩容加剧,在外界作用下易导致
边坡失稳破坏;其层面与节理裂隙的不良组合为边坡变形失稳提供了边界,陡倾坡内的裂隙,为地下水
的入渗创造了条件;滑坡稳定性随着岩土力学强度参数的提高而增强。通过对降雨、水位升降和地震等
外在因素的敏感性分析可知,库水位骤升骤降对滑坡的稳定性影响较大;短期降雨影响较小,但时间增
长滑坡失稳概率增加;地震峰值对滑坡稳定性影响较为明显。同时根据分析结果对滑坡体进行了工况
及荷载组合,并对各工况组合进行了稳定性计算及评价,得出水位下降时滑坡稳定性处于极限状态,在
蓄水地震工况下失稳概率较大。 相似文献
8.
滑坡稳定性分析目前工程中一般采用极限平衡算法。为了确定滑坡的稳定性系数,在计算过程中要将岩土体、计算模型简化,忽略一些影响滑坡稳定的次要因素,把影响滑坡稳定的各种主要因素作为确定参数。由于滑坡岩土体本身的非均质性及其参数确定具有随机性和变异性,用唯一的稳定系数不能客观地反映整个滑坡的真实安全程度。以陕西省夏呀河滑坡为例,通过野外详细调查、工程勘探和室内土工试验,初步确定该滑坡存在四级滑动面,难以用简单的单一滑动面计算其稳定性。因此,先采用推力传递系数法对滑坡体上的四级滑坡分别进行滑坡稳定性计算,得到该滑坡体上的四级滑坡稳定系数。再采用蒙特卡罗法对该四级滑坡进行可靠性分析,得到其可靠度,定量地表达夏呀河四级滑坡的安全程度。同时对比分析夏呀河四级滑坡的稳定系数和失稳概率,综合评价该滑坡体上的四级滑坡的稳定性及其风险概率,为滑坡的工程治理及预测预警、灾害危险性评价提供依据。 相似文献
9.
以资溪县西源滑坡为研究对象,根据勘察资料采用经典的传递系数法对天然状态和饱水状态滑坡的稳定性进行了计算,表明自然状态滑坡处于基本稳定状态,饱和状态滑坡处于不稳定状态;根据滑坡体勘察成果,采用抗滑支挡和地表排水综合治理措施,取得了良好成效。 相似文献
10.
The geometric and kinematic characterization of landslides affecting urban areas is a challenging goal that is routinely pursued via geological/geomorphological method and monitoring of ground displacements achieved by geotechnical and, more recently, advanced differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (A-DInSAR) data. Although the integration of all the above-mentioned methods should be planned a priori to be more effective, datasets resulting from the independent use of these different methods are commonly available, thus making crucial the need for their standardized a posteriori integration. In this regard, the present paper aims to provide a contribution by introducing a procedure that, taking into account the specific limits of geological/geomorphological analyses and deep/surface ground displacement monitoring via geotechnical and A-DInSAR data, allows the a posteriori integration of the results by exploiting their complementarity for landslide characterization. The approach was tested in the urban area of Lungro village (Calabria region, southern Italy), which is characterized by complex geological/geomorphological settings, widespread landslides and peculiar urban fabric. In spite of the different level of information preliminarily available for each landslide as result of the independent use of the three methods, the implementation of the proposed procedure allowed a better understanding and typifying of the geometry and kinematics of 50 landslides. This provided part of the essential background for geotechnical landslide models to be used for slope stability analysis within landslide risk mitigation strategies. 相似文献
11.
In this paper, a multi-method approach for the assessment of the stability of natural slopes and landslide hazard mapping applied to the Dakar coastal region is presented. This approach is based on the effective combination of geotechnical field and laboratory works, of GIS, and of mechanical (deterministic and numerical) stability analysis. By using this approach, valuable results were gained regarding instability factors, landslide kinematics, simulation of slope failure and coastal erosion. This led to a thorough assessment and strong reduction in the subjectivity of the slope stability and hazard assessment and to the development of an objective landslide danger map of the SW coast of Dakar. Analysis of the results shows that the slides were influenced by the geotechnical properties of the soil, the weathering, the hydrogeological situation, and the erosion by waves. The landslide susceptibility assessment based on this methodological approach has allowed for an appropriate and adequate consideration of the multiple factors affecting the stability and the optimization of planning and investment for land development in the city. 相似文献
12.
Uncertainties in parameters of landslide susceptibility models often hinder them from providing accurate spatial and temporal predictions of landslide occurrences. Substantial contribution to the uncertainties in landslide assessment originates from spatially variable geotechnical and hydrological parameters. These input parameters may often vary significantly through space, even within the same geological deposit, and there is a need to quantify the effects of the uncertainties in these parameters. This study addresses this issue with a new three-dimensional probabilistic landslide susceptibility model. The spatial variability of the model parameters is modeled with the random field approach and coupled with the Monte Carlo method to propagate uncertainties from the model parameters to landslide predictions (i.e., factor of safety). The resulting uncertainties in landslide predictions allow the effects of spatial variability in the input parameters to be quantified. The performance of the proposed model in capturing the effect of spatial variability and predicting landslide occurrence has been compared with a conventional physical-based landslide susceptibility model that does not account for three-dimensional effects on slope stability. The results indicate that the proposed model has better performance in landslide prediction with higher accuracy and precision than the conventional model. The novelty of this study is illustrating the effects of the soil heterogeneity on the susceptibility of shallow landslides, which was made possible by the development of a three-dimensional slope stability model that was coupled with random field model and the Monte Carlo method. 相似文献
13.
This paper describes the potential applicability of a hydrological–geotechnical modeling system using satellite-based rainfall
estimates for a shallow landslide prediction system. The physically based distributed model has been developed by integrating
a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model with an infinite slope stability approach. The model was forced
by the satellite-based near real-time half-hourly CMORPH global rainfall product prepared by NOAA-CPC. The method combines
the following two model outputs necessary for identifying where and when shallow landslides may potentially occur in the catchment:
(1) the time-invariant spatial distribution of areas susceptible to slope instability map, for which the river catchment is
divided into stability classes according to the critical relative soil saturation; this output is designed to portray the
effect of quasi-static land surface variables and soil strength properties on slope instability and (2) a produced map linked
with spatiotemporally varying hydrologic properties to provide a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to slope movement
in response to rainfall. The proposed hydrological model predicts the dynamic of soil saturation in each grid element. The
stored water in each grid element is then used for updating the relative soil saturation and analyzing the slope stability.
A grid of slope is defined to be unstable when the relative soil saturation becomes higher than the critical level and is
the basis for issuing a shallow landslide warning. The method was applied to past landslides in the upper Citarum River catchment
(2,310 km 2), Indonesia; the resulting time-invariant landslide susceptibility map shows good agreement with the spatial patterns of
documented historical landslides (1985–2008). Application of the model to two recent shallow landslides shows that the model
can successfully predict the effect of rainfall movement and intensity on the spatiotemporal dynamic of hydrological variables
that trigger shallow landslides. Several hours before the landslides, the model predicted unstable conditions in some grids
over and near the grids at which the actual shallow landslides occurred. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential applicability
of the modeling system for shallow landslide disaster predictions and warnings. 相似文献
14.
以麻柳林滑坡为例,选取了内摩擦角、粘聚力、渗透系数、浸没率、库水位下降速率及降雨量等6个因素进行了正交试验,采用极差分析法进行了稳定性敏感分析.结果表明,滑坡稳定性及其变化率主要由内因决定,库水和降雨对其影响较小.滑坡稳定性对内摩擦角最敏感,其次依次为渗透系数、粘聚力和浸没率.滑坡初始稳定性主要由内摩擦角和粘聚力决定.滑坡稳定性随浸没率的降低而逐步增加,但增幅较小;渗透系数对滑坡稳定系数变化率的影响最大,并存在临界值K_0,渗透系数大于K_0时,滑坡稳定性随渗透系数的增加而增加,渗透系数小于K_0时,滑坡稳定性随渗透系数的降低而降低. 相似文献
15.
A probabilistic 3-D slope stability analysis model (PTDSSAM) is developed to evaluate the stability of embankment dams and their foundations under conditions of staged construction taking into consideration uncertainty, spatial variabilities and correlations of shear strength parameters, as well as the uncertainties in pore water pressure. The model has the following capabilities: (1) conducting undrained shear strength analysis (USA) and effective stress analysis (ESA) slope stability analysis of staged construction, (2) incorporation of field monitored data of pore water pressure, and (3) incorporation of increase of undrained shear strength with depth, effective stress, and pore water pressure dissipation. The PTDSSAM model is incorporated in a computer program that can analyze slopes located in multilayered deposits, considering the total slope width. The main outputs of the program are the geometric parameters of the most critical sliding surface (i.e., center of rotation/radius of rotation and critical width of failure), mean 2-D safety factor, mean 3-D safety factor, squared coefficient of variation of resisting moment, and the probability of slope failure. The program is applied to a case study, Karameh dam in Jordan. Monitored data of induced pore water pressure in the dam embankment and soft foundation were gathered during dam construction. The stability of Karameh dam embankment and foundation was evaluated during staged construction using deterministic and probabilistic analysis. Foundation stability was evaluated based on the monitored data of pore water pressure. The study showed that the mean values of the corrective factors which account for the discrepancies between the in situ and laboratory-measured values of soil properties and for the modeling errors have significant influence on the 2-D safety factor, 3-D safety factor, slope probability of failure, and on the expected failure width. The degree of spatial correlation associated with shear strength parameters within a soil deposit also influences the probability of slope failure and the expected failure width. This correlation is quantified by scale of fluctuation. It is found that a larger scale of fluctuation gives an increase in the probability of slope failure and a reduction in the critical failure width. 相似文献
16.
This paper deals with groundwater hydrology at a prominent fracture zone landslide slope (Nuta–Yone landslides) in Japan with
an objective to explore an efficient method for the application of landslide stability enhancement measures. The correlation
analyses between the hydrological parameters and ground surface movement data at this landslide resulted in low correlation
values indicating that the geological formation of the area is extremely complex. For the purpose of understanding the groundwater
flow behavior in the landslide area, a three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model was prepared for a part of the landslide
slope, where the levels of effectiveness of applied landslide stability enhancement measures (in the form of multilayered
deep horizontal drains) are different, and was calibrated against the measured water surface elevations at different piezometer
locations. The parameter distributions in the calibrated model and the general directions of the groundwater flow in terms
of flow vectors and the results of particle tracking at the model site were interpreted to understand the reasons for variations
in effectiveness of existing landslide stability enhancement measures and to find potentially better locations for the implementation
of future landslide stability enhancement measures. From the modeling results, it was also understood that groundwater flow
model can be effectively used in better planning and locating the landslide stability enhancement measures. 相似文献
17.
本文介绍了滑坡体、滑带、滑床的结构和物质组成及滑坡具多期次滑动的变形特征,认为滑坡区岩石破碎、滑坡前缘形成临空面、地表水渗入土体为滑坡的形成提供了有利的条件;长时间的持续暴雨、古夫河长期冲刷、人类工程活动是诱发滑坡发生的主要因素。并据岩土物理力学性质指标的试验结果以及滑坡稳定性反演分析计算结果,结合地区经验值,确定计算滑坡稳定性的抗剪强度指标,采用传递系数法,分不同的工况条件进行稳定性计算。根据计算结果对滑坡进行了稳定性评价,并结合工程实际提出一些可行的防治措施及建议。 相似文献
18.
Slope failure or landslide is a complex geological/geotechnical problem that involves much uncertainty. In this work, a framework for probabilistic assessment of landslide is presented with a focus on the El Berrinche landslide, Honduras. One unique feature of this case study involving the El Berrinche landslide is that the stability analysis has to be carried out with limited data. Another challenge in this study is to assess possible remedial measures in a way that can easily be communicated to the government and the public. A reliability-based framework for a probabilistic assessment is proposed. With this approach, different levels of risk for landslide are assessed and the associated costs are estimated; and all information is integrated into the decision-making process for choosing a remedial action. 相似文献
19.
The development of Early Warning Systems in recent years has assumed an increasingly important role in landslide risk mitigation.
In this context, the main topic is the relationship between rainfall and the incidence of landslides. In this paper, we focus
our attention on the analysis of mathematical models capable of simulating triggering conditions. These fall into two broad
categories: hydrological models and complete models. Generally, hydrological models comprise simple empirical relationships
linking antecedent precipitation to the time that the landslide occurs; the latter consist of more complex expressions that
take several components into account, including specific site conditions, mechanical, hydraulic and physical soil properties,
local seepage conditions, and the contribution of these to soil strength. In a review of the most important models proposed
in the technical and international literature, we have outlined their most meaningful and salient aspects. In particular,
the Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall (FLaIR) and the Saturated Unsaturated Simulation for Hillslope Instability
(SUSHI) models, developed by the authors, are discussed. FLaIR is a hydrological model based on the identification of a mobility
function dependent on landslide characteristics and antecedent rainfall, correlated to the probability of a slide occurring.
SUSHI is a complete model for describing hydraulic phenomena at slope scale, incorporating Darcian saturated flow, with particular
emphasis on spatial–temporal changes in subsoil pore pressure. It comprises a hydraulic module for analysing the circulation
of water from rainfall infiltration in saturated and nonsaturated layers in non-stationary conditions and a geotechnical slope
stability module based on Limit Equilibrium Methods. The paper also includes some examples of these models’ applications in
the framework of early warning systems in Italy. 相似文献
20.
应用概率地震危险性评价模型进行地震滑坡危险性区划,是解决潜在地震诱发滑坡危险性评价中震源不确定性与诱发滑坡时空不确定性的有效方法 .通过理论分析,结合鲁甸地震区的实际情况,对基于力学原理的Newmark滑块位移模型与概率地震滑坡危险性分析方法中的参数的不确定性问题进行了分析,将斜坡岩土体地震作用下的强度衰减效应、地震加速度地形放大效应、断层破碎带效应融合到了斜坡累积位移计算模型中,进行了模型计算参数的优化.改进后的分析模型,更好地反映了高陡斜坡地形与断层破碎带对地震滑坡灾害发育的控制作用,在鲁甸地震区域滑坡应用中,优化模型中的滑坡失稳极高风险区与实际地震滑坡分布表现出了较好的一致性,在超越概率2%的滑坡失稳概率分布中,鲁甸地区包谷垴-小河断裂、鲁甸-昭通断裂带及牛栏江河谷地带地震滑坡高-极高风险区分布面积增幅十分显著.因此,在Newmark滑块位移模型中考虑地震动参数与岩土参数动态响应规律与变量间的定量关系,对于提高区域斜坡稳定性分析的可靠性具有重要意义. 相似文献
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