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1.
C. Chang J. Yang Y. Tung 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1993,7(4):299-314
Computerized sediment transport models are frequently employed to quantitatively simulate the movement of sediment materials in rivers. In spite of the deterministic nature of the models, the outputs are subject to uncertainty due to the inherent variability of many input parameters in time and in space, along with the lack of complete understanding of the involved processes. The commonly used first-order method for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses is to approximate a model by linear expansion at a selected point. Conclusions from the first-order method could be of limited use if the model responses drastically vary at different points in parameter space. To obtain the global sensitivity and uncertainty features of a sediment transport model over a larger input parameter space, the Latin hypercubic sampling technique along with regression procedures were employed. For the purpose of illustrating the methodologies, the computer model HEC2-SR was selected in this study. Through an example application, the results about the parameters sensitivity and uncertainty of water surface, bed elevation and sediment discharge were discussed. 相似文献
2.
《国际泥沙研究》2020,35(2):157-170
Mitigation of sediment deposition in lined open channels is an essential issue in hydraulic engineering practice.Hence,the limiting velocity should be determined to keep the channel bottom clean from sediment deposits.Recently,sediment transport modeling using various artificial intelligence(AI) techniques has attracted the interest of many researchers.The current integrated study highlights unique insight for modeling of sediment transport in sewer and urban drainage systems.A novel methodology based on the combination of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses with a machine learning technique is proposed as a tool for selection of the best input combination for modeling process at non-deposition conditions of sediment transport.Utilizing one to seven dimensionless parameters,127 models are developed in the current study.In order to evaluate the different parameter co mbinations and select the training and te sting data,four strategies are considered.Considering the densimetric Froude number(Fr) as the dependent parameter,a model with independent parameters of volumetric sediment concentration(C_V) and relative particle size(d/R) gave the best results with a mean absolute relative error(MARE) of 0.1 and a root means square error(RMSE) of 0.67.Uncertainty analysis is applied with a machine learning technique to investigate the credibility of the proposed methods.The percentage of the observed sample data bracketed by95% predicted uncertainty bound(95 PPU) is computed to assess the uncertainty of the best models. 相似文献
3.
A discontinuous finite element suspended sediment transport model for water quality assessments in river networks 
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下载免费PDF全文 Suspended sediment plays an important role in the distribution and transport of many pollutants (such as radionuclides) in rivers. Pollutants may adsorb on fine suspended particles (e.g. clay) and spread according to the suspended sediment movement. Hence, the simulation of the suspended sediment mechanism is indispensable for realistic transport modelling. This paper presents and tests a simple mathematical model for predicting the suspended sediment transport in river networks. The model is based on the van Rijn suspended load formula and the advection–diffusion equation with a source or sink term that represents the erosion or deposition fluxes. The transport equation is solved numerically with the discontinuous finite element method. The model evaluation was performed in two steps, first by comparing model simulations with the measured suspended sediment concentrations in the Grote Nete–Molse Nete River in Belgium, and second by a model intercomparison with the sediment transport model NST MIKE 11. The simulations reflect the measurements with a Nash‐Sutcliffe model efficiency of 0.6, while the efficiency between the proposed model and the NST MIKE 11 simulations is 0.96. Both evaluations indicate that the proposed sediment transport model, that is sufficiently simple to be practical, is providing realistic results. 相似文献
4.
T.SONG Post-Doctoral Fellow School of Civil Structural Engineering Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Avenue Singapore . Presently Civil Engineer Engineering Depatment Technology Division Maritime Port Authority of Singapore. 《国际泥沙研究》1997,(3)
I.INTRODUCTIONBedloadtransportinsteadyuniformopenchannelflowhasbeenextensiVelystudied.Manyoftheformulasdevelopedforthepredictionofbedloadtransportinuniformopen-channelflowcanbebroughtinthefollowingform(ChienandWan,1983);ac=f(O)(l)xvhereacisthedimensionlessparameterofbedloadtranSPortandOisthedimensionlessparameterofflowintensity.TheseparametersaredefinedasfwheregsisthebedloadtranspoftratePerunitwidthindryweight;disthesedimentdiameter,Sisthebedslopeofthechannel;Rbisthehydraulicradiusdue… 相似文献
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6.
We present a two-dimensional vertical (2DV) flow and morphological numerical model describing the behaviour of offshore sand waves. The model contains the 2DV shallow water equations, with a free water surface and a general bed load formula. The water movement is coupled to the sediment transport equation by a seabed evolution equation. Using this model, we investigate the evolution of sand waves in a marine environment. As a result, we find sand wave saturation for heights of 10–30% of the average water depth on a timescale of decades. The stabilization mechanism, causing sand waves to saturate, is found to be based on the balance between the shear stress at the seabed and the principle that sediment is transported more easily downhill than uphill. The migration rate of the sand waves decreases slightly during their evolution. For a unidirectional steady flow the sand waves become asymmetrical in the horizontal direction and for a unidirectional block current asymmetrical in the vertical. A sensitivity analysis showed the slope effect of the sediment transport plays an important role herein. Furthermore, the magnitude of the resistance at the seabed and the eddy viscosity influence both the timescale and height of sand waves. The order of magnitudes found of the time and spatial scales coincide with observations made in the southern bight of the North Sea, Japan and Spain. 相似文献
7.
Current techniques assessing longshore sediment transport rates have large uncertainties, pleading for the development of alternative and complementary approaches. The present study proposes a method to estimate the decadal average rate of longshore transport at modern ebb-tidal deltas based on a sediment budget analysis of the outer shoal growth. This transport is obtained as the balance of the other contributions to the shoal with the total sediment input rate obtained from an inverse application of the inlet reservoir model. The method is applied to the Guadiana ebb-tidal delta, yielding an average longshore sediment transport rate (~85 000 m3 year−1) in good agreement with expectations for the region. It is exemplified that this decadal averaged rate can be used to improve longshore sediment transport expressions in order to study its variability over shorter time scales. At the Guadiana, the yearly longshore sediment transport from the improved formula ranges from ~25 000 m3 (westward) to ~245 000 m3 (eastward) and is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Overall, the proposed method constitutes an alternative tool to constrain the average longshore sediment transport rate over decades in the vicinity of tidal inlets. It is applicable to ebb-tidal deltas where the outer shoal growth (from an early to a mature stage) is well documented by bathymetric maps, and where the main transport pathways towards the outer shoal can be specified. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Sediment movement in the wave boundary layer above a mobile sediment bed is complex.A velocity formula for the boundary layer is proposed for sheet flow induced by asymmetric waves above a mobile sediment bed.The formula consists of a free stream velocity and a defect function which contains a phase-lead,boundary layer thickness and mobile sediment bed.Phase-lag of sediment movement is considered in the formula for the mobile sediment bed.The formula needs six dependent variables about asymmetric wave and sediment characteristics.Asymmetry effects on parameters(orbital amplitude,roughness height,bed shear stress,and boundary layer thickness)are properly considered such that the formula can yield velocity differences among onshore,offshore,acceleration,and deceleration stages.The formula estimates the net boundary layer velocity resulting from the mobile sediment bed and asymmetric boundary layer thickness.In addition,a non-constant phase-lead also contributes to the net boundary layer velocity in asymmetric oscillatory sheet flow.Results of the formula are as good as that of a two-phase numerical model.Sheet flow transport induced by asymmetric waves,and the offshore net sediment transport rate with a large phase-lag under velocity-skewed waves,can be adequately estimated by the formula with a power sediment concentration function. 相似文献
9.
大型浅水湖泊藻类模型参数敏感性分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
选取太湖作为典型湖泊在之前研究基础上建立藻类模型,对模型中与藻类有关的40个参数进行拉丁超立方抽样,并使用区域敏感性分析方法和普适似然不确定性分析方法进行敏感性分析.结果表明:在所选的40个参数中,有7个参数是敏感的参数,对模拟的结果影响较大.在藻类生长、基础代谢、牧食和沉降4个藻类变化过程中藻类生长的敏感参数最多,影响最大;在藻类生长项中,叶绿素的消光系数是藻类生长光照限制中的最敏感参数,而最低适宜生长温度及其对藻类生长的影响系数则是温度限制中的敏感参数;并且不同湖区的不确定性在不同时间差异明显,对于藻类低浓度湖区和藻类暴发期的模拟需要加以关注. 相似文献
10.
《国际泥沙研究》2017,(4)
In this discussion, we want to highlight the important findings of the last two decades by Hunziker and Jaggi(2002) and Wong and Parker(2006), among others, who reanalyzed and revised the original data forming the basis of the MPM sediment transport equation. Furthermore, by using an actual adaptation of the original MPM formula, the prediction of the sediment transport rate for the data given in the paper under discussion seems to be acceptable. 相似文献
11.
浅议多元统计分析判别砂土液化 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
分析了多元统计方法在饱和在砂土液化判别方面的应用，笔者认为，在液化势函数的建立过程中，原始数据的可靠性及其标准化处理，对判别式有较大的影响，本文还结合实例，首次指出仅仅利用回判来检验判别式的精度是不充分的，很有必要对判别式中的自变量系数作定性检验。 相似文献
12.
基于广义帕累托分布构建地震活动性模型,因其输入参数取值难以避免不确定性,导致依据该模型所得的地震危险性估计结果具有不确定性。鉴于此,本文选取青藏高原东北缘为研究区,提出了基于全域敏感性分析的地震危险性估计的不确定性分析流程和方法。首先,利用地震活动性广义帕累托模型,进行研究区地震危险性估计;然后,选取地震记录的起始时间和震级阈值作为地震活动性模型的输入参数,采用具有全域敏感性分析功能的E-FAST方法,对上述两个参数的不确定性以及两参数之间的相互作用对地震危险性估计不确定性的影响进行定量分析。结果表明:地震危险性估计结果（不同重现期的震级重现水平、震级上限及相应的置信区间）对两个输入参数中的震级阈值更为敏感;不同重现期的地震危险性估计结果对震级阈值的敏感程度不同;对不同的重现期而言,在影响地震危险性估计结果的不确定性上,两个输入参数之间存在非线性效应,且非线性效应程度不同。本文提出的不确定性分析流程和方法,可以推广应用于基于其它类型地震活动性模型的地震危险性估计不确定性分析。 相似文献
13.
Simone Bizzi Marco Tangi Rafael J. P. Schmitt John Pitlick Hervé Piégay Andrea Francesco Castelletti 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(14):2946-2962
In this article we apply the CASCADE network-scale sediment connectivity model to the Vjosa River in Albania. The Vjosa is one of the last unimpaired braided rivers in Europe and, at the same time, a data scarce environment, which limits our ability to model how this pristine river might respond to future human disturbance. To initialize the model, we use remotely sensed data and modeled hydrology from a regional model. We perform a reach-by-reach optimization of surface grain size distribution (GSD) and bedload transport capacity to ensure equilibrium conditions throughout the network. In order to account for the various sources of uncertainty in the calculation of transport capacity, we performed a global sensitivity analysis. The modeled GSD distributions generated by the sensitivity analysis generally match the six GSDs measured at different locations within the network. The modeled bedload sediment fluxes increase systematically downstream, and annual fluxes at the outlet of the Vjosa are well within an order of magnitude of fluxes derived from previous estimates of the annual suspended sediment load. We then use the modeled sediment fluxes as input to a set of theoretically derived functions that successfully discriminate between multi-thread and single-thread channel patterns. This finding provides additional validation of the model results by showing a clear connection between modeled sediment concentrations and observed river morphology. Finally, we observe that a reduction in sediment flux of about 50% (e.g., due to dams) would likely cause existing braided reaches to shift toward single thread morphology. The proposed method is widely applicable and opens a new avenue for application of network-scale sediment models that aid in the exploration of river stability to changes in water and sediment fluxes. 相似文献
14.
《Continental Shelf Research》2006,26(5):599-609
In the present work, the sediment transport rate in the swash zone is estimated using a Boussinesq model coupled with a porous flow model in order to incorporate the infiltration–exfiltration effects. The transport rate is estimated from a modified Meyer–Peter and Müller formula using different values the multiplier C for uprush and backwash to incorporate the observed higher transporting efficiency of the uprush due to the presence of pre-suspended sediment from the bore collapse. Alternatively, the depth-integrated transport equation for suspended sediment is solved. The comparison between model results and experimental data shows that both approaches are able to give satisfactory results. 相似文献
15.
R. J. Whitley 《Advances in water resources》1987,10(4)
The estimation of the 100-year flood, or more generally the T-year flood, is a basic problem in hydrology. An important source of uncertainty in this estimate is that caused by the uncertain estimation of parameters of the flood distribution. This uncertainty can have a significant effect on the flood design value, and its quantification is an important aspect of evaluating the risk involved in a chosen level of flood protection. In this paper, simulation is used to determine confidence intervals for the flood design value. The simulation allows verification of Stedinger's formula not only as it applies to confidence intervals, but also verifies the formula as an approximation to percentiles as well. 相似文献
16.
Robert J. Hallermeier 《Continental Shelf Research》1982,1(2):159-190
This review displays over 700 rates of sediment transport by oscillatory flow from 20 sources. Sediments include fine sands to pebbles, both of quartz and of lightweight materials, and the transport rates in water range over seven orders of magnitude. Most data are average gross (to and fro) bedload rates collinear with laboratory flow over a horizontal sediment bed, although other situations with net transport, suspended load, or oblique field waves are considered.As peak flow velocity nears twice the threshold velocity for sediment motion, bedload appears to be fully developed and the transport rate is near that given by a simple formula including flow frequency and peak velocity, and sediment size and density. At lesser peak velocities, bedload rates are markedly smaller and distinctly different regimes of sediment mobilization and transport may be identified. 相似文献
17.
《Advances in water resources》2004,27(9):937-942
Bedload transport generally depends on the bed shear stress and Reynolds number. Many studies conducted for the condition of turbulent flows have revealed the dependence of the transport rate on the bed shear stress, while knowledge of the Reynolds number effect on the transport rate is very limited. As an extreme case to reflect the viscous effect on sediment transport, sediment transport in laminar flows is considered in this paper. A stochastic approach is adopted to explore how the transport rate can be associated with characteristics of laminar flows. First, the probability of erosion in the absence of turbulence is assumed to depend only on the randomness of bed particles. The probability is then applied to formulate the sediment transport rate, of which the derivation is made largely based on Einstein’s bedload theory. The theoretical result indicates that the dimensionless transport rate for laminar flows is dependent on the dimensionless shear stress and dimensionless particle diameter or the shear Reynolds number. Comparisons are finally made between the derived formula and an empirical correlation available in the literature. 相似文献
18.
Climate change impacts on bedload transport in alpine drainage basins with hydropower exploitation 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Mélanie Raymond Pralong Jens Martin Turowski Dieter Rickenmann Massimiliano Zappa 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(12):1587-1599
Sediment transport is known to have a significant impact on hydropower infrastructures and changes in sediment transport rates are important for sediment management measures and hydroelectricity production. In this study, we present how climate change may affect bedload transport in 66 high alpine catchments used by hydropower companies in the Valais, Switzerland. Future sediment yield is estimated with a runoff‐based sediment transport model for the two future 30 year time periods 2021–2050 and 2070–2099. The analysis is integrated into a modelling chain in which error‐corrected and downscaled climate scenarios generated in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project are coupled to the hydrological model PREVAH, glacier retreat and bedload transport. To calibrate the sediment transport model, we used the observed sediment volumes in water intakes and reservoirs if such data were available. The results obtained show on average a decrease of sediment yield due to the reduced runoff generation during summer, especially for the scenario period 2070–2099. A shift of the seasonal sediment transport regime with a current maximum during July and August to earlier months in the year is predicted. Projections of future sediment yield rely on the accuracy of the individual modeling chain elements. The different sources of uncertainty are discussed qualitatively. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
Saltation of sediment particles is an important pattern of bedload transport.Based on force analysis for sediment particles,a Lagrangian model was proposed for the saltating motion of bedload in river flows,which was then solved with numerical method.Simulation results on the saltating trajectories neglecting particle rotation and turbulence effects compare fairly well with experimental observations.The mean values of the saltation parameters (saltation height,length and velocity) also agree well with the previous experimental data.Based on the numerical results,regression equations for the dimensionless saltation height,length and velocity were presented.Using the numerically achieved characteristics of the sediment saltation,we also obtained mathematical expression for the sediment transport rate.The studies in this paper are significant for its contribution to mechanism of the bedload motion and the computation of sediment transport rate. 相似文献
20.
A function for the bed-load sediment transport rate is derived. This function is obtained by using the entrainment probabilities of the rolling and lifted sediment grains, and by introducing two travel lengths, respectively. The predictions from the new bed-load function agree well with experimental results over the entire experimental range and show significant improvement over the commonly used formula for the bed-load transport rate. The new function shows that, in terms of contributing to the bed-load transport rate, the total entrainment probability of the sediment grains is a weighted summation of those for the lifted and rolling grains, rather than a simple addition of the two. The function is also used to predict the total entrainment probability, saltation length, and the bed layer thickness at a high bed-load transport rate. These predictions all agree well with the experimental results. It is found that, on average, the travel length for the rolling sand grains is about an order of magnitude less than that of the lifted grains. 相似文献