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1.
A 1950–1994 data set of major weather losses developed by the property insurance industry was examined to assess its potential utility in climate change research and use in assessing the relevance of recent extreme losses in the United States. A process for adjusting these historical storm losses to ever-changing factors including dollar values, amount of insurance coverage per area, and the sensitivity of society to damaging storms was developed by the industry. Analysis of the temporal frequency and losses of these adjusted weather catastrophes revealed differences according to the amount of loss. Temporal changes since 1975 in the catastrophes causing $35 to $100 million in loss were strongly related to changes in U.S. population, whereas catastrophes that created insured losses greater than $100 million appear related to both shifting weather conditions and to regional population changes. This evaluation revealed that the industry's catastrophe adjustment technique did not adequately allow for changes in various demographic and social factors affecting damage; however, results suggest use of population values for normalizing the adjusted catastrophe database to allow meaningful studies of their temporal variability. 相似文献
2.
Insurance and insurers are directly affected and concerned about climate fluctuations in the United States. Growing losses in the 1990s awakened many in the insurance business to the enormity of weather-related problems they faced and a need for better information about climate and its fluctuations including a new potential problem, climate change. This paper presents the views of experts from the crop insurance sector, the property-casualty insurance sector, and from the atmospheric sciences sector based on atmospheric research accomplished for the insurance industry for decades. The paper addresses how climatologists and insurers can and need to work together to effectively bring understanding and wise consideration of climate conditions and their future fluctuations and extremes to insurers. Considerable climatological analyses have been employed in the past by the crop insurance industry, but less by property insurers. Insurers can adjust to a change in climate but to do so will require clear evidence, which does not exist now for the United States, and an understanding as well as wide acceptance of the on-going change by regulators and the buying public. Atmospheric scientists can help insurers to mitigate weather losses, to assess risks, to measure critical perils, to educate about risks, and to learn about critical issues like climate change and long-range forecasts. 相似文献
3.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Climatic change》2011,106(2):129-140
The temporal distributions of the nation’s four major storm types during 1950–2005 were assessed, including those for thunderstorms,
hurricanes, tornadoes, and winter storms. Storms are labeled as catastrophes, defined as events causing $1 million or more
in property losses, based on time-adjusted data provided by the insurance industry. Most catastrophic storms occurred in the
eastern half of the nation. Analysis of the regional and national storm frequencies revealed there was little time-related
relationship between storm types, reflecting how storm types were reported. That is, when tornadoes occurred with thunderstorms,
the type producing the greatest losses was the one identified by the insurance industry, not both. Temporal agreement was
found in the timing of relatively high incidences of thunderstorms, hurricanes, and winter storms during 2002–2005. This resulted
in upward time trends in the national losses of hurricane and thunderstorm catastrophes, The temporal increase in hurricanes
is in agreement with upward trends in population density, wealth, and insurance coverage in Gulf and East coastal areas. The
upward trends in thunderstorm catastrophes and losses result from increases in heavy rain days, floods, high winds, and hail
days, revealing that atmospheric conditions conducive to strong convective activity have been increasing since the 1960s.
Tornado catastrophes and their losses peaked in 1966–1973 and had no upward time trend. Temporal variability in tornado catastrophes
was large, whereas the variability in hurricane and thunderstorm catastrophes was only moderate, and that for winter storms
was low. 相似文献
4.
One strand of research relates the magnitude of severe weather disasters to climatic and human development factors; another highlights dramatic growth in catastrophe losses. However, there have been few attempts to put the two strands together. Here we use an explicit modeling framework to determine the contribution of climate variability relative to human factors in reported catastrophe losses. We then examine how future climate change can be expected to affect losses from natural disasters. Simultaneous regression models are constructed from three equations in which the dependent variables are U.S. flood loss, U.S. hurricane loss and U.S. catastrophe loss. Then two kinds of simulation under two climate change scenarios explore how climate change would affect losses. The climate change scenarios respectively project 13.5% and 21.5% increases in annual precipitation. The first simulation increases only the mean value of annual precipitation; the second simulation assumes that the mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation change in the same proportion. Results show that the growth in reported losses from weather-related natural disasters is due mainly to three socioeconomic factors: inflation, population growth and growth in per capita real wealth. However, weather variables such as precipitation and the number of hurricanes per period also clearly affect losses. The three stage least squares (3SLS) simultaneous equation model shows that a 1% increase in annual precipitation would enlarge catastrophe loss by as much as 2.8%. These findings are suggestive as planning signals to decision makers. 相似文献
5.
The limitations of observational data available for the study of damaging weather conditions (e.g., storms and extreme temperature events) are discussed. Crop and property insurance loss records are advocated as a potential supplement to traditional weather observations, as they integrate specific information about the spatial dimension of damaging weather conditions and the cost of damage they cause. Insurance loss data may also be analyzed in combination with meteorological data sets to derive indicator variables for the detection of damaging weather events.Two sets of insurance data are described. One record provides adjusted property losses associated with "catastrophic" weather events since 1949, and the other is an index of the amount of crop-hail losses per year since 1948. Additionally, an example of the benefits of the combination of insurance and meteorological data is presented through a selection of results from a recent study of freezing temperatures in the southeastern United States and associated insurance claims related to pipe bursting.If insurance data are to be applied in the future in similar studies of damaging weather conditions, it is essential that the insurance industry continues to collect and adjust loss data and periodically confirm that adjustment factors are temporally consistent. 相似文献
6.
The combined influences of a change in climate patterns and the increased concentration of property and economic activity in hazard-prone areas has the potential of restricting the availability and affordability of insurance. This paper evaluates the premiums that private insurers are likely to charge and their ability to cover residential losses against hurricane risk in Florida as a function of (a) recent projections on future hurricane activity in 2020 and 2040; (b) insurance market conditions (i.e., soft or hard market); (c) the availability of reinsurance; and (d) the adoption of adaptation measures (i.e., implementation of physical risk reduction measures to reduce wind damage to the structure and buildings). We find that uncertainties in climate projections translate into a divergent picture for insurance in Florida. Under dynamic climate models, the total price of insurance for Florida (assuming constant exposure) could increase significantly by 2040, from $12.9 billion (in 1990) to $14.2 billion, under hard market conditions. Under lower bound projections, premiums could decline to $9.4 billion by 2040. Taking a broader range of climate change scenarios, including several statistical ones, prices could be between $4.7 and $32.1 billion by 2040. The upper end of this range suggests that insurance could be unaffordable for many people in Florida. The adoption of most recent building codes for all residences in the state could reduce by nearly half the expected price of insurance so that even under high climate change scenarios, insurance premiums would be lower than under the 1990 baseline climate scenario. Under a full adaptation scenario, if insurers can obtain reinsurance, they will be able to cover 100 % of the loss if they allocated 10 % of their surplus to cover a 100-year return hurricane, and 63 % and 55 % of losses from a 250-year hurricane in 2020 and 2040. Property-level adaptation and the maintenance of strong and competitive reinsurance markets will thus be essential to maintain the affordability and availability of insurance in the new era of catastrophe risk. 相似文献
7.
The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: ‘grains’, ‘vegetables’, ‘fruits’, ‘flowers’ and ‘other crops’. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of ‘grains’, ‘vegetables’, ‘fruits’ and ‘flowers’. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security. 相似文献
8.
Benjamin L. Preston 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(4):719-732
Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes, a process characterized by strong path dependence. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast (particularly coastal and urban counties) and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Using methods previously reported in the literature, annualized county-level losses from 1960 to 2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3–1.7 and 1.8–3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. The implications of increasing physical vulnerability to extreme weather events for investments in disaster risk management are ultimately contingent upon the normative values of societal actors. 相似文献
9.
基于风险区划的农业干旱保险费率厘定——以河北省冬麦区为例 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
近年来,在气候变化和极端天气气候事件频发的背景下,干旱等农业气象灾害的频发已对我国尤其是河北省的粮食生产和农业发展的可持续性带来了严重威胁。选择或构建合适的农业干旱灾害风险指标开展干旱风险区划,并在此基础上进行灾害的保险费率厘定对于丰富农业保险模式,促进农业保险经营的稳定和发展具有重要的应用价值。本文基于作物水分亏缺率指数、降水距平百分率指数和抗旱指数等指标,构建干旱综合风险指数并开展风险区划研究;利用修正后的纯保险费率,得到适用于本研究区的保险费率厘定模型,探寻一种能较全面改善目前农业保险经营弊端的保险模式,从而实现冬小麦农业保险的持续健康发展。 相似文献
10.
Cornelia Schwierz Pamela Köllner-Heck Evelyn Zenklusen Mutter David N. Bresch Pier-Luigi Vidale Martin Wild Christoph Schär 《Climatic change》2010,101(3-4):485-514
Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (?22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists. 相似文献
11.
农业巨灾保险可有效分散灾害的风险,气象灾害是造成农业巨灾的主要灾害之一,因此设计合理的气象灾害保险指数可为农业巨灾保险提供科学的技术支撑.利用赣州市17个县(市、区)国家气象站1981—2020年和区域气象站2011—2020年观测资料,结合赣州气候以及气象灾害出现特点,经专家咨询和调研,确定暴雨、冰霜冻害、干旱和大风等4种气象灾害作为赣州农业巨灾保险的气象灾种.根据不同灾害出现的气候概率以及投保单位的要求,设计了赣州农业巨灾保险不同等级的气象灾害指数,并确定农业巨灾保险气象灾害赔付的触发概率范围为45％—70％.经验证,赣州农业巨灾保险气象灾害指数可用. 相似文献
12.
Climate change impacts on pricing long-term flood insurance: A comprehensive study for the Netherlands 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Recently long-term flood insurance contracts with a duration of 5, 10 or 15 years have been proposed as a solution for covering flood risk and mitigating increasing flood losses. Establishing a long-term relation between the policyholder and the insurer can provide better incentives to reduce risk through undertaking damage mitigation measures. However, the uncertainty about the development of future flood risk in the face of climate and socio-economic change may complicate insurers’ rate-setting of long-term contracts. This issue has been examined in this study by estimating the effects of these changes on flood risk and pricing flood insurance premiums of short- and long-term flood insurance contracts in all (53) dike-ring areas in the Netherlands. A broad range of simulations with hydrological and flood damage models are used to estimate the future development of flood risk and premiums. In addition, the long-term development of insurance funds is estimated with a spatial “Climate Risk Insurance Model (CRIM)” for a private insurance arrangement and for a ‘three-layered’ public-private insurance program. The estimation of flood insurance premiums of long-term insurance contracts reveals fundamental problems. One is that there is an incentive for either the consumer or the insurer to prefer short-term rather than long-term contracts in the face of climate-related uncertainty. Therefore, it seems advisable to examine the introduction of one-year flood insurance contracts in the Netherlands, at least until the large uncertainties with climate and socio-economic change on flood risk have been resolved. The estimations performed with the Climate Risk Insurance Model indicate that a private insurance fund could have difficulties with building up enough financial reserves to pay for flood damage, while the layered public-private insurance scheme is more robust. 相似文献
13.
The science of climate change is full of uncertainty, but the greater vulnerability of poor countries to the impacts of climate change is one aspect that is widely acknowledged. This paper adapts Dryzek's ‘components’ approach to discourse analysis to explore the media construction of climate change and development in UK ‘quality’ newspapers between 1997 and 2007. Eight discourses are identified from more than 150 articles, based on the entities recognised, assumptions about natural relationships, agents and their motives, rhetorical devices and normative judgements. They show a wide range of opinions regarding the impacts of climate change on development and the appropriate action to be taken. Discourses concerned with likely severe impacts have dominated coverage in the Guardian and the Independent since 1997, and in all four papers since 2006. Previously discourses proposing that climate change was a low development priority had formed the coverage in the Times and the Telegraph. The classification of different discourses allows an inductive, nuanced analysis of the factors influencing representation of climate change and development issues; an analysis which highlights the role of key events, individual actors, newspaper ideology and wider social and political factors. Overall the findings demonstrate media perceptions of a rising sense of an impending catastrophe for the developing world that is defenceless without the help of the West, perpetuating to an extent views of the poor as victims. 相似文献
14.
As the world becomes wealthier over time, inflation-adjusted insured damages from natural disasters go up as well. This article analyzes whether there is still a significant upward trend once insured natural disaster loss has been normalized. By scaling up loss from past disasters, normalization adjusts for the fact that a hazard event of equal strength will typically cause more damage nowadays than in past years because of wealth accumulation over time. A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters is not only of interest to the insurance industry, but can potentially be useful for attempts at detecting whether there has been an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of natural hazards, whether caused by natural climate variability or anthropogenic climate change. We analyze trends at the global level over the period 1990 to 2008, over the period 1980 to 2008 for West Germany and 1973 to 2008 for the United States. We find no significant trends at the global level, but we detect statistically significant upward trends in normalized insured losses from all non-geophysical disasters as well as from certain specific disaster types in the United States and West Germany. 相似文献
15.
Climate Extremes: Selected Review and Future Research Directions 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
16.
Nicola Ranger St��phane Hallegatte Sumana Bhattacharya Murthy Bachu Satya Priya K. Dhore Farhat Rafique P. Mathur Nicolas Naville Fanny Henriet Celine Herweijer Sanjib Pohit Jan Corfee-Morlot 《Climatic change》2011,104(1):139-167
Managing risks from extreme events will be a crucial component of climate change adaptation. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to assess future risks and quantify the benefits of adaptation options at a city-scale, with application to flood risk in Mumbai. In 2005, Mumbai experienced unprecedented flooding, causing direct economic damages estimated at almost two billion USD and 500 fatalities. Our findings suggest that by the 2080s, in a SRES A2 scenario, an ??upper bound?? climate scenario could see the likelihood of a 2005-like event more than double. We estimate that total losses (direct plus indirect) associated with a 1-in-100 year event could triple compared with current situation (to $690?C$1,890 million USD), due to climate change alone. Continued rapid urbanisation could further increase the risk level. The analysis also demonstrates that adaptation could significantly reduce future losses; for example, estimates suggest that by improving the drainage system in Mumbai, losses associated with a 1-in-100 year flood event today could be reduced by as much as 70%.,We show that assessing the indirect costs of extreme events is an important component of an adaptation assessment, both in ensuring the analysis captures the full economic benefits of adaptation and also identifying options that can help to manage indirect risks of disasters. For example, we show that by extending insurance to 100% penetration, the indirect effects of flooding could be almost halved. We conclude that, while this study explores only the upper-bound climate scenario, the risk-assessment core demonstrated in this study could form an important quantitative tool in developing city-scale adaptation strategies. We provide a discussion of sources of uncertainty and risk-based tools could be linked with decision-making approaches to inform adaptation plans that are robust to climate change. 相似文献
17.
气候风险可能给人类社会带来巨大的生命和财产损失,气候保险通过转移分散风险成为应对气候风险的有效机制。文中首先在辨析气候保险的概念和市场机制等理论基础上,分析了气候保险存在逆向选择风险与难以满足大数法则、存在道德风险与反馈效应的问题;其次梳理了发达国家气候保险的发展情况,其风险分散和转移功能比较强,保费一部分存在政府补贴,一般采取政府紧急贷款、再保险和保险衍生品的方式进一步分散风险,但是也存在道德风险的问题。最后分析了中国气候保险的发展现状发现存在着难以满足大数法则的问题,道德风险尚无明确体现,并提出建议:完善气象站基础设施、制定自然灾害风险地图、提高公众和敏感行业气候保险的购买意愿等尽量使气候保险满足大数法则;促使保险公司在设计保险产品时考虑非经济成本,未雨绸缪避免道德风险及反馈效应;适时发展气候再保险和保险衍生品,建立分散和转移风险的市场机制。 相似文献
18.
Although the spatial and temporal scales on which climate varies is a prominent aspect of climate research in the natural sciences, its treatment in the social sciences remains relatively underdeveloped. The result is limited understanding of the public's capacity to perceive climate variability as distinct from change, and uncertainty surrounding how and when to best communicate information on variability/change. Ignoring variability in favour of change-focused analyses and language risks significant misrepresentation of public perception and knowledge, and precludes detailed synthesis of data from the social and natural sciences. An example is presented based on a regional comparison of variability-dominated climate observations and change-focused survey data, collected in western Newfoundland (Canada). This region experiences pronounced, slow-varying natural variability, which acted to obscure broader climate trends through the 1980s and 1990s; since the late 1990s, the same variability has amplified apparent change. While survey results confirm residents perceive regional climate change, it is not clear whether respondents distinguish variability from change. This presents uncertainty in the best approach to climate science communication in this region, and raises concern that subsequent variability-driven transient cooling will erode public support for climate action. Parallels are drawn between these regional concerns and similar uncertainty surrounding treatment of variability in discussion of global temperature trends, highlighting variability perception as a significant gap in human dimensions of climate change research. 相似文献
19.
广东暴雨强度大、范围广、季节长,造成的灾害重、影响大。为合理、定量地评估广东暴雨洪涝过程强度及其损失,基于1994—2018年广东致灾暴雨过程和相应灾情资料,构建了广东暴雨过程综合强度评估模型和灾情指数模型,并采用百分位数法进行暴雨强度和灾情等级划分,以第60、第80、第90和第95百分位数为临界阈值,分别将致灾暴雨过程强度和灾情划分为弱(1级)、较弱(2级)、中等(3级)、较强(4级)、强(5级)和微灾、小灾、中灾、大灾、巨灾5个等级,进而分析了不同强度等级暴雨过程可能造成的人口、农作物、房屋和经济等承灾体损失。结果表明:(1)1994—2018年间,广东各等级致灾暴雨过程主要出现在4—9月的汛期,5—7月尤其多,要特别注意防御;(2)致灾暴雨过程强度等级与各类承灾体灾情指数存在显著正相关关系:随暴雨强度的增强,倒塌房屋数呈指数增长,受灾人口、死亡人数、农作物受灾面积和直接经济损失呈线性增长;(3)平均而言,当暴雨强度达到强(5级)等级时,受灾人口、死亡人数、农作物受灾面积、倒塌房屋数和直接经济损失标准分别约为187.19万人、22人、10.52×10^4 hm^2、1.12万间和13.07亿元。 相似文献
20.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Climatic change》2009,96(1-2):161-166
Property losses due to hailstorms on April 13–14, 2006, resulted in Midwestern property losses that totaled $1.822 billion, an amount considerably more than the previous record high of $1.5 billion set by an April 2001 hail event. The huge April 2006 loss was largely due to multiple severe storms with frequent large hail hitting major metropolitan areas. A highly unstable air mass that developed on April 13 led to several supercell storms and they then produced large hailswaths across portions of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin during a 30-h period. This storm event and prior recent major hail losses occurred when several major hailstorms developed and then traveled for hundreds of kilometers. The nation’s top ten loss events during 1950–2006 reveal a notable temporal increase with most losses in the 1992–2006 period. Causes for the increases could be an increasing frequency of very unstable atmospheric conditions leading to bigger, longer lasting storms, and/or a greatly expanded urban society that has become increasingly vulnerable to hailstorms. 相似文献