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1.
Vassiliki H. Kourafalou Ge Peng HeeSook Kang Patrick J. Hogan Ole-Martin Smedstad Robert H. Weisberg 《Ocean Dynamics》2009,59(1):47-66
The South Florida Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (SoFLA-HYCOM) encompasses a variety of coastal regions (the broad Southwest
Florida shelf, the narrow Atlantic Keys shelf, the shallow Florida Bay, and Biscayne Bay) and deep regions (the Straits of
Florida), including Marine Protected Areas (the Florida Keys Marine Sanctuary and the Dry Tortugas Ecological Reserve). The
presence of the strong Loop Current/Florida Current system and associated eddies connects the local and basin-wide dynamics.
A multi-nested approach has been developed to ensure resolution of coastal-scale processes and proper interaction with the
large scale flows. The simulations are free running and effects of data assimilation are introduced through boundary conditions
derived from Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment products. The study evaluates the effects of boundary conditions on
the successful hindcasting of circulation patterns by a nested model, applied on a dynamically and topographically complex
shelf area. Independent (not assimilated) observations are employed for a quantitative validation of the numerical results.
The discussion of the prevailing dynamics that are revealed in both modeled and observed patterns suggests the importance
of topography resolution and local forcing on the inner shelf to middle shelf areas, while large scale processes are found
to dominate the outer shelf flows. The results indicate that the successful hindcasting of circulation patterns in a coastal
area that is characterized by complex topography and proximity to a large scale current system requires a dynamical downscaling
approach, with simulations that are nested in a hierarchy of data assimilative outer models. 相似文献
2.
Dirk Nürnberg Martin Ziegler Cyrus Karas Ralf Tiedemann Matthew W. Schmidt 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2008,272(1-2):278-289
The Loop Current mediating the oceanic heat and salt flux from the Caribbean Sea into the Atlantic Ocean and its interference with the Mississippi River discharge are critical for both the regional climate in the Gulf of Mexico area and the water vapor transport towards high northern latitudes. We present a 400-kyr record of sea surface temperature and local surface salinity from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (IMAGES core MD02-2575) approximated from combined planktonic foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca, which reflects the temporal dynamics of the Loop Current and its relationship to both varying Mississippi discharge and evolution of the Western Hemisphere Warm pool. The reconstructed sea surface temperature and salinity reveal glacial/interglacial amplitudes that are significantly larger than in the Western Hemisphere Warm pool. Sea surface freshening is observed during the extreme cool periods of Marine Isotope Stages 2, 8, and 10, caused by the strengthened Mississippi discharge which spread widely across the Gulf favored by the less established Loop Current. Interglacial and interstadial sea-surface conditions, instead, point to a strengthened, northward flowing Loop Current in line with the northward position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, allowing northeastern Gulf of Mexico surface hydrographic conditions to approach those of the Caribbean. At these times, the Mississippi discharge was low and deflected westward, promoted by the extended Loop Current. Previously described deglacial megadischarge events further to the west did not affect the northeastern Gulf of Mexico hydrography, implying that meltwater routing from the Laurentide Ice Sheet via the Mississippi River is unlikely to have affected Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. 相似文献
3.
High-resolution models and realistic boundary conditions are necessary to reproduce the mesoscale dynamics of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). In order to achieve this, we use a nested configuration of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), where the Atlantic TOPAZ system provides lateral boundary conditions to a high-resolution (5 km) model of the GOM . However, such models cannot provide accurate forecasts of mesoscale variability, such as eddy shedding event, without data assimilation. Eddy shedding events involve the rapid growth of nonlinear instabilities that are difficult to forecast. The known sources of error are the initial state, the atmospheric condition, and the lateral boundary condition. We present here the benefit of using a small ensemble forecast (10 members) for providing confidence indices for the prediction, while using a data assimilation scheme based on optimal interpolation. Our set of initial states is provided by using different values of a data assimilation parameter, while the atmospheric and lateral boundary conditions are perturbed randomly. Changes in the data assimilation parameter appear to control the main position of the large features of the GOM in the initial state, whereas changes in the boundary conditions (lateral and atmospheric) appears to control the propagation of cyclonic eddies at their boundary. The ensemble forecast is tested for the shedding of Eddy Yankee (2006). The Loop Current and eddy fronts observed from ocean color and altimetry are almost always within the estimated positions from the ensemble forecast. The ensemble spread is correlated both in space and time to the forecast error, which implies that confidence indices can be provided in addition to the forecast. Finally, the ensemble forecast permits the optimization of a data assimilation parameter for best performance at a given forecast horizon. 相似文献
4.
Hurricanes produce mixing and flow divergences (and convergences) that alter the upper-ocean heat content (OHC), which in turn affects the storm. Ocean observations under a hurricane are rare, making it difficult to validate forecast models. Past research have mainly focused on OHC-changes by vertical mixing and tacitly assumed that horizontal transports are slowly varying. Moreover, effects of coastal boundaries on ocean responses to hurricanes are generally omitted. This work uses satellite data to detect and verify forecast isopycnal motions under hurricane Wilma (Oct/16–26/2005) in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The model is then used to show that Wilma-induced convergences in northwestern Caribbean Sea produce increased Yucatan-Channel transport into the Gulf ahead of the storm, and the Yucatan–Loop Current front diverts most of this heat around the Loop. This response is distinct from that of an ocean without the Loop, for which warming is widespread north of the channel. These intricate ocean responses can impact hurricane predictions. 相似文献
5.
The influence of initial conditions and open boundary conditions on shelf circulation in a 3D ocean-shelf model of the North East Atlantic 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Data from climatology (World Ocean Atlas) and two large scale operational ocean models (Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model
(FOAM), UK Met. Office and the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), US Naval Research Laboratory) are used to give initial and
open boundary conditions for a northeast Atlantic implementation of the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Model
System (POLCOMS). We study the effects of using the different datasets on the temperature fields and the circulation. On the
continental shelf, comparisons of POLCOMS output with Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sea surface temperature data
suggest that the effect of using different ocean model initial and boundary conditions is small and that, after 15 months
of model time, the impact of the different initial conditions is negligible. Stronger evidence of influence is seen in the
deeper oceanic regions of the domain. Volume fluxes through sections governing flow into and out of the North Sea, through
the Irish Sea and along the shelf edge show that the impact of the different boundary conditions is small on the shelf but
significant elsewhere. These results are contrasted with the use of climatology to assess the value of these Global Ocean
Data Assimilation Experiment ocean model products. 相似文献
6.
Ntaganou Nektaria Kourafalou Vassiliki Le Hénaff Matthieu Androulidakis Yannis 《Ocean Dynamics》2022,72(1):49-78
Ocean Dynamics - The evolution of the Loop Current (LC) system under the interaction with the complex topography of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) is examined. Focusing on the eastern GoM, we study the... 相似文献
7.
The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) model is used to hindcast Hurricane Ivan (2004), an extremely intense tropical cyclone (TC) translating through the Gulf of Mexico. Sensitivity experiments with increasing complexity in ocean–atmosphere–wave coupled exchange processes are performed to assess the impacts of coupling on the predictions of the atmosphere, ocean, and wave environments during the occurrence of a TC. Modest improvement in track but significant improvement in intensity are found when using the fully atmosphere–ocean-wave coupled configuration versus uncoupled (e.g., standalone atmosphere, ocean, or wave) model simulations. Surface wave fields generated in the fully coupled configuration also demonstrates good agreement with in situ buoy measurements. Coupled and uncoupled model-simulated sea surface temperature (SST) fields are compared with both in situ and remote observations. Detailed heat budget analysis reveals that the mixed layer temperature cooling in the deep ocean (on the shelf) is caused primarily by advection (equally by advection and diffusion). 相似文献
8.
An accurate method for long-term (weeks to months) projections of oil spill trajectories based on multi-year ensemble analyses
of simulated surface and subsurface (z = −800 m) drifters released at the northern Gulf of Mexico spill site is demonstrated during the 2010 oil spill. The simulation
compares well with satellite images of the actual oil spill which show that the surface spread of oil was mainly confined
to the northern shelf and slope of the Gulf of Mexico, with some (more limited) spreading over the north/northeastern face
of the Loop Current, as well as northwestward toward the Louisiana–Texas shelf. At subsurface, the ensemble projection shows
drifters spreading south/southwestward, and this tendency agrees well with ADCP current measurements near the spill site during
the months of May–July, which also show southward mean currents. An additional model analysis during the spill period (Apr–Jul/2010)
confirms the above ensemble projection. The 2010 analysis confirms that the reason for the surface oil spread to be predominantly
confined to the northern Gulf shelf and slope is because the 2010 wind was more southerly compared to climatology and also
because a cyclone existed north of the Loop Current which moreover was positioned to the south of the spilled site. 相似文献
9.
A high-resolution (1/60°), three-dimensional numerical circulation model of the Cariaco Basin (Venezuela) is constructed by
nesting the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) in the 1/12° global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). A new bathymetry,
computed by merging DBDB2 data and in situ depth measurements using optimal interpolation, is described. This new bathymetry
corrects the depth of the channels that connect the Cariaco Basin with the open ocean and which play a very important role
in the basin circulation. Results from a 2004 ROMS hindcast are presented. Observations (temperature, salinity, and currents)
are used to validate the model results before using the model to describe the annual cycle of the Cariaco Basin and the interactions
between the basin and the open ocean. Two modes of interaction are described, the first being the meanders and eddies that
travel westward with the Caribbean Current, and the second being a subsurface eastward current that flows along the north
coast of South America. The circulation path within the basin is directly related to the intensity of this current. Both mechanisms
described play a role in the ventilation of the basin. The present study is also an example of the feasibility of one of the
objectives of GODAE (Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment): downscaling from a large-scale model to a regional model.
In particular, the nesting ratio of 5 used in this work demonstrates that a high-resolution model can be successfully nested
in HYCOM. 相似文献
10.
Xuezhu Wang Qiang Wang Dmitry Sidorenko Sergey Danilov Jens Schr?ter Thomas Jung 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(10-12):1471-1486
The Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) is formulated on unstructured meshes and offers geometrical flexibility which is difficult to achieve on traditional structured grids. In this work, the performance of FESOM in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean on large time scales is evaluated in a hindcast experiment. A water-hosing experiment is also conducted to study the model sensitivity to increased freshwater input from Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melting in a 0.1-Sv discharge rate scenario. The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the hindcast experiment can be explained by the variability of the thermohaline forcing over deep convection sites. The model also reproduces realistic freshwater content variability and sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean. The anomalous freshwater in the water-hosing experiment leads to significant changes in the ocean circulation and local dynamical sea level (DSL). The most pronounced DSL rise is in the northwest North Atlantic as shown in previous studies, and also in the Arctic Ocean. The released GrIS freshwater mainly remains in the North Atlantic, Arctic Ocean and the west South Atlantic after 120 model years. The pattern of ocean freshening is similar to that of the GrIS water distribution, but changes in ocean circulation also contribute to the ocean salinity change. The changes in Arctic and sub-Arctic sea level modify exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and subpolar seas, and hence the role of the Arctic Ocean in the global climate. Not only the strength of the AMOC, but also the strength of its decadal variability is notably reduced by the anomalous freshwater input. A comparison of FESOM with results from previous studies shows that FESOM can simulate past ocean state and the impact of increased GrIS melting well. 相似文献
11.
Wang Xuezhu Wang Qiang Sidorenko Dmitry Danilov Sergey Schr&#;ter Jens Jung Thomas 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(10):1471-1486
The Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) is formulated on unstructured meshes and offers geometrical flexibility which is difficult to achieve on traditional structured grids. In this work, the performance of FESOM in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean on large time scales is evaluated in a hindcast experiment. A water-hosing experiment is also conducted to study the model sensitivity to increased freshwater input from Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melting in a 0.1-Sv discharge rate scenario. The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the hindcast experiment can be explained by the variability of the thermohaline forcing over deep convection sites. The model also reproduces realistic freshwater content variability and sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean. The anomalous freshwater in the water-hosing experiment leads to significant changes in the ocean circulation and local dynamical sea level (DSL). The most pronounced DSL rise is in the northwest North Atlantic as shown in previous studies, and also in the Arctic Ocean. The released GrIS freshwater mainly remains in the North Atlantic, Arctic Ocean and the west South Atlantic after 120 model years. The pattern of ocean freshening is similar to that of the GrIS water distribution, but changes in ocean circulation also contribute to the ocean salinity change. The changes in Arctic and sub-Arctic sea level modify exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and subpolar seas, and hence the role of the Arctic Ocean in the global climate. Not only the strength of the AMOC, but also the strength of its decadal variability is notably reduced by the anomalous freshwater input. A comparison of FESOM with results from previous studies shows that FESOM can simulate past ocean state and the impact of increased GrIS melting well.
相似文献12.
E.S. Van Vleet W.M. Sackett S.B. Reinhardt M.E. Mangini 《Marine pollution bulletin》1984,15(3):106-110
Pelagic tar was monitored over a two-year period in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. A total of 416 surface and subsurface samples were collected during monthly cruises. Concentrations of pelagic tar found in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico were substantially higher than values reported for other areas around the world. Tar is primarily associated with the Gulf Loop Current, whereas continental shelf areas are relatively uncontaminated. Grounding of significant amounts of tar occurs primarily along the south-east coast of Florida, between Key West and Fort Pierce. Approximately 10–50% of the tar in the eastern Gulf is transported in from the Caribbean Sea via the Yucatan Straits. The remainder originates within the Gulf. Approximately half of the pelagic tar samples collected during the study appeared to have originated from tanker operations. 相似文献
13.
Low-frequency current fluctuations in the deep central equatorial Atlantic are analyzed using current meter measurements recorded
from November 1992 to November 1994. Current meters were located at about 14°W of longitude and 1° of latitude on both sides
of the equator between 1,700 m depth and the ocean bottom. At all sampling depths, the velocity fluctuations are dominantly
zonal and symmetrical with respect to the equator. At 1,700 and 2,000 m, the flow is dominated by annual period fluctuations,
at 3,000 m, the velocity field amplitude presents a minimum, and at 3,750 and 3,950 m, the flow is modulated by annual and
semiannual period variability. The annual signal exhibits an apparent upward phase propagation. When considering the phase
and the amplitude of the seasonal fluctuations, the data compare well with the outputs of a realistic numerical simulation
of the Atlantic Ocean. Together with a previous analysis of the model simulations, this supports the idea that the observed
annual fluctuations are due to wind-forced vertically propagating Kelvin and Rossby waves. Data and model do not provide deciding
evidences of the presence of semiannual equatorial waves deeper than 3,500 m depth in the central equatorial Atlantic Ocean. 相似文献
14.
Steven L. Morey Mark A. Bourassa Dmitry S. Dukhovskoy James J. O’Brien 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(5-6):594-606
A coupled ocean and boundary layer flux numerical modeling system is used to study the upper ocean response to surface heat
and momentum fluxes associated with a major hurricane, namely, Hurricane Dennis (July 2005) in the Gulf of Mexico. A suite
of experiments is run using this modeling system, constructed by coupling a Navy Coastal Ocean Model simulation of the Gulf
of Mexico to an atmospheric flux model. The modeling system is forced by wind fields produced from satellite scatterometer
and atmospheric model wind data, and by numerical weather prediction air temperature data. The experiments are initialized
from a data assimilative hindcast model run and then forced by surface fluxes with no assimilation for the time during which
Hurricane Dennis impacted the region. Four experiments are run to aid in the analysis: one is forced by heat and momentum
fluxes, one by only momentum fluxes, one by only heat fluxes, and one with no surface forcing. An equation describing the
change in the upper ocean hurricane heat potential due to the storm is developed. Analysis of the model results show that
surface heat fluxes are primarily responsible for widespread reduction (0.5°–1.5°C) of sea surface temperature over the inner
West Florida Shelf 100–300 km away from the storm center. Momentum fluxes are responsible for stronger surface cooling (2°C)
near the center of the storm. The upper ocean heat loss near the storm center of more than 200 MJ/m2 is primarily due to the vertical flux of thermal energy between the surface layer and deep ocean. Heat loss to the atmosphere
during the storm’s passage is approximately 100–150 MJ/m2. The upper ocean cooling is enhanced where the preexisting mixed layer is shallow, e.g., within a cyclonic circulation feature,
although the heat flux to the atmosphere in these locations is markedly reduced. 相似文献
15.
Ocean Dynamics - Loop Current Eddies (LCEs) are warm-core, anticyclonic rings that shed from the Loop Current and migrate westward providing kinetic and potential energy to the Gulf of... 相似文献
16.
Teddy R. Holt James A. Cummings Craig H. Bishop James D. Doyle Xiaodong Hong Sue Chen Yi Jin 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(11):1937-1954
A coupled ocean–atmosphere mesoscale ensemble prediction system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory. This paper describes the components and implementation of the system and presents baseline results from coupled ensemble simulations for two tropical cyclones. The system is designed to take into account major sources of uncertainty in: (1) non-deterministic dynamics, (2) model error, and (3) initial states. The purpose of the system is to provide mesoscale ensemble forecasts for use in probabilistic products, such as reliability and frequency of occurrence, and in risk management applications. The system components include COAMPS® (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) and NCOM (Navy Coastal Ocean Model) for atmosphere and ocean forecasting and NAVDAS (NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System) and NCODA (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation) for atmosphere and ocean data assimilation. NAVDAS and NCODA are 3D-variational (3DVAR) analysis schemes. The ensembles are generated using separate applications of the Ensemble Transform (ET) technique in both the atmosphere (for moving or non-moving nests) and the ocean. The atmospheric ET is computed using wind, temperature, and moisture variables, while the oceanographic ET is derived from ocean current, temperature, and salinity variables. Estimates of analysis error covariance, which is used as a constraint in the ET, are provided by the ocean and atmosphere 3DVAR assimilation systems. The newly developed system has been successfully tested for a variety of configurations, including differing model resolution, number of members, forecast length, and moving and fixed nest options. Results from relatively coarse resolution (～27-km) ensemble simulations of Hurricanes Hanna and Ike demonstrate that the ensemble can provide valuable uncertainty information about the storm track and intensity, though the ensemble mean provides only a small amount of improved predictive skill compared to the deterministic control member. 相似文献
17.
Modelling and observational evidence indicate that interannual variabilities of dynamic height and sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea) are largely induced by preceding fluctuations in wind stress, mainly in the western equatorial basin. A wind-driven linear ocean model is used here to test the possibility of forecasting the abnormal dynamic heights. A control run of the model, forced by 1964–1993 wind stress monthly means, is first conducted. Yearly test runs (1964-1994) are subsequently performed from January to August by forcing the model with observed winds from January to May, and then by forcing with the May wind assumed to persist from June to August. During the last three decades the largest deviations of dynamic height simulated by the control run in the Gulf of Guinea in boreal summer would have been correctly forecast from wind data related only to conditions in May of each year. However, for weak climatic anomalies, the model may forecast overestimated values. For the most part (about 20 times during the last 30 years), the sign of the observed SST anomaly in the centre of the Gulf of Guinea during the boreal summer is identical to the sign of simulated anomalies of dynamic height deduced from both control and test runs. Along the eastern equatorial waveguide, the sea level forecasting skill slowly decreases from the first 2 weeks of June until the second 2 weeks of August, but remains high on both sides of the equator throughout boreal summer, as is expected from the adjustment in a linear ocean model. It is established that throughout the year in the Gulf of Guinea the accuracy of the 1-month forecast dynamic height anomaly provided by the simple linear method is greater than that of the 1-month forecast assuming persistence. 相似文献
18.
The long-term variability of sea level and surface flows in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is studied using global monthly sea level reconstruction (RecSL) for 1900–2015. The study explored the long-term relation between the dynamics of the GOM and inflows/outflows through the Yucatan Channel (YC) and the Florida Straits (FS). The results show a century-long trend of increased mean velocity and variability in the Loop Current (LC); however, no significant upward trend was found in the YC and FS flows, only increased variability. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of sea surface height found spatial patterns dominated by variations in the LC and temporal variations on time scales ranging from a few months to multidecadal. The time evolution of each EOF mode of sea level is correlated with the velocity of either the LC, the YC, or the FS or some combination of the different flows. The mean sea level difference between the GOM and the northwestern Caribbean Sea was found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with unusually high differences during the 1970s when the NAO index was low and the Atlantic Ocean circulation was weak. Extreme peaks in SL difference coincide with the extension of the LC and the seasonal eddy shedding pattern. The observed seasonal cycle in the extension area of the LC as obtained from 20 years of altimeter data is significantly correlated (R = 0.63; confidence level = 98%) with the seasonal YC flow obtained from 116 years of the RecSL data. However, the same LC extension record had lower correlation (R = 0.45; confidence level = 90%) with the observed YC transport obtained from direct moored measurements over ~ 5 years, indicating the need for much longer measurements, since the LC extension and the YC flow are strongly affected by interannual and decadal variations. The study demonstrates the usefulness of even a coarse-resolution reconstruction for studies of regional ocean variability and climate change over longer time scales than current direct observations allow.
相似文献19.
Ocean Dynamics - A multi-decadal simulation of ocean circulation in the northern Gulf of Mexico produces strong submesoscale instabilities in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya plume fronts. The model... 相似文献
20.
Kyoko Ohashi Jinyu Sheng Keith R. Thompson Charles G. Hannah Harold Ritchie 《Continental Shelf Research》2009
A numerical shelf circulation model was developed for the Scotian Shelf, using a nested-grid setup consisting of a three-dimensional baroclinic inner model embedded inside a two-dimensional barotropic outer model. The shelf circulation model is based on the Princeton Ocean Model and driven by three-hourly atmospheric forcing provided by a numerical weather forecast model and by tidal forcing specified at the inner model's open boundaries based on pre-calculated tidal harmonic constants. The outer model simulates the depth-mean circulation forced by wind and atmospheric pressure fields over the northwest Atlantic Ocean with a horizontal resolution of 1/12°. The inner model simulates the three-dimensional circulation over the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Scotian Shelf, and the adjacent slope with a horizontal resolution of 1/16°. The performance of the shelf circulation model is assessed by comparing model results with oceanographic observations made along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and in the vicinity of Sable Island (on the Scotian Shelf) during two periods: October 2000–March 2001 and April–June 2002. Analysis of model results on Sable Island Bank indicates that tidal currents account for as much as ∼80% of the total variance of near-bottom currents, and currents driven by local winds account for ∼30% of the variance of the non-tidal near-bottom currents. Shelf waves generated remotely by winds and propagating into the region also play an important role in the near-bottom circulation on the bank. 相似文献