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1.
《Global Environmental Change》1999,9(2):95-104
Climate impact assessment has evolved as a range of tools, critical in evaluating potential impacts of climate change. This field has been driven by global concerns and is dominated by western scientific philosophies. Amid claims that it is failing in its role of informing policy, key issues implicated in application of assessment techniques are considered for the case of indigenous health in northern Australia. An argument is made for local scale studies which foster stakeholder involvement and focus on social, cultural and political landscapes; studies which produce outcomes of relevance to stakeholders and planners, as well as scientists and researchers. 相似文献
2.
J. M. Montag K. Swan K. Jenni T. Nieman J. Hatten M. Mesa D. Graves F. Voss M. Mastin J. Hardiman A. Maule 《Climatic change》2014,124(1-2):385-398
The Yakima River Basin (Basin) in south-central Washington is a prime example of a place where competing water uses, coupled with over-allocation of water resources, have presented water managers with the challenge of meeting current demand, anticipating future demand, and preparing for potential impacts of climate change. We took a decision analysis approach that gathered diverse stakeholders to discuss their concerns pertaining to climate change effects on the Basin and future goals that were collectively important. One main focus was centered on how climate change may influence future salmon populations. Salmon have played a prominent role in the cultures of Basin communities, especially for tribal communities that have social, cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic ties to them. Stakeholders identified the need for a better understanding on how the cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic aspects of the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation could be affected by changes in salmon populations. In an attempt to understand the complexities of these potential effects, this paper proposes a conceptual model which 1) identifies cultural values and components and the interactions between those components that could influence tribal well-being, and 2) shows how federal natural resource managers could incorporate intangible tribal cultural components into decision-making processes by understanding important components of tribal well-being. Future work includes defining the parameterization of the cultural components in order for the conceptual model to be incorporated with biophysical resource models for scenario simulations. 相似文献
3.
Invasive species and climate change: an agronomic perspective 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Lewis H. Ziska Dana M. Blumenthal G. Brett Runion E. Raymond Hunt Jr Hilda Diaz-Soltero 《Climatic change》2011,105(1-2):13-42
In the current review we wish to draw attention to an additional aspect of invasive species and climate change, that of agricultural productivity and food security. We recognize that at present, such a review remains, in part, speculative, and more illustrative than definitive. However, recent events on the global stage, particularly in regard to the number of food riots that occurred during 2008, even at a time of record harvests, have prompted additional interest in those factors, including invasive species, which could, through climatic uncertainty, alter food production. To that end, as agricultural scientists, we wish to begin an initial evaluation of key questions related to food production and climate change including: how vulnerable is agriculture to invasive species?; are current pest management strategies sufficient to control invasive outbreaks in the future?; what are the knowledge gaps?; can we provide initial recommendations for scientists, land managers and policy makers in regard to available resources? Our overall goals are to begin a synthesis of potential impacts on productivity, to identify seminal research areas that can be addressed in future research, and to provide the scientific basis to allow agronomists and land managers to formulate mitigation and adaptation options regarding invasive species and climate change as a means to maintain food security. 相似文献
4.
Christina C. Hicks Nicholas A.J. Graham Joshua E. Cinner 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1444-1453
Managing ecosystems in a changing environment faces the challenge of balancing diverse competing perspectives on which ecosystem services – nature's benefits – to prioritize. Consequently, we measured and compared how different stakeholders (managers, scientists and fishers) prioritize specific coral reef ecosystem services. Managers’ priorities were more aligned with scientists’ priorities but all stakeholder groups agreed that fishery, education, and habitat were high priorities. However, stakeholder groups differed in the extent to which they prioritized certain services. Fishers tended to assigned greater estimates to fishery and education, managers to culture, and scientists to coastal protection. Furthermore, using network analysis to map the interactions between stakeholders’ priorities, we found distinct synergies and trade-offs in how ecosystem services were prioritized, representing areas of agreement and conflict. In the fishers’ network, trade-offs emerged between two services, both of a higher priority, such as fishery and habitat. Conversely, in the scientists’ network, trade-offs emerged between services of a higher and lower priority, such as habitat and culture. The trade-offs and synergies that emerged in the managers’ network overlap with both fishers’ and scientists’ suggesting a potential brokering role that managers can play in balancing both priorities and conflicts. We suggest that measuring ecosystem service priorities can highlight key areas of agreement and conflict, both within and across stakeholder groups, to be addressed when communicating and prioritizing decisions. 相似文献
5.
Assessing climate change vulnerability in the arctic using geographic information services in spatial data infrastructures 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Timely knowing about climate change impacts is crucial to adequately plan and undertake adaptive measures and thus to effectively
lower vulnerability. This requires gathering and integrating geographic information on exposure, local response mechanisms
and stakeholders’ concerns. Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI) are internet-based information systems that facilitate the
exchange and use of distributed geographic information. This paper presents the application of SDI to climate change assessment
by implementing a generic methodology for the quantification of vulnerability to climate change. The resulting integrated
tool allows scientists, stakeholders and decision makers to communicate, assess and improve information about vulnerability
to climate change. We show how emerging internet technologies and SDI in particular, make a new interactive approach of assessing
vulnerability to climate change possible. Vulnerability was quantified based on an active stakeholder involvement by incorporating
their varying perceptions, by allowing them to provide feedback and by supporting the acquisition of stakeholders’ knowledge.
However, the application showed that to be effective, efforts to achieve and maintain interoperability between the various
scientific disciplines should be kept integrated within mainstream IT developments. 相似文献
6.
Even with substantially increased attention to climate adaptation in developing countries in recent years, there are a number of important remaining research needs: better incorporating stakeholder input; using replicable methodologies to provide comparability across different settings; assuring that stakeholder input reflects the results of climate science, not simply perceptions; and effectively linking stakeholder input with the regional and national levels at which policy changes are made. This study reports the results of a methodology for identifying and prioritizing local, stakeholder-driven response options to climate change in agriculture. The approach is based on multi-criteria scoring methods previously applied to research planning and priority-setting in agricultural and natural resource management research, public health, and other areas. The methodology is a sequential approach built around needs assessments by local stakeholders; the incorporation of climate science results; the sharing of these results and climate adaption response options with stakeholders at a series of workshops; stakeholder priority-setting exercises using multi-criteria scoring; and validation with policymakers. The application is to three diverse agroecosystems in Mexico, Peru and Uruguay. Among the many findings is that, notwithstanding the wide diversity of agro-ecosystems, there are numerous similarities in the agricultural adaptation responses prioritized by local stakeholders. 相似文献
7.
Susanne Moser 《Climatic change》2009,95(1-2):11-21
Decision support has become a popular concept, especially in the context of climate change. Government agencies and researchers increasingly recognize that they should provide it, and resource managers and policy-makers increasingly need and demand it. This demand will only grow as climate change progresses. Those who will attempt to meet this growing demand will need to demonstrate “effectiveness”. This editorial raises a number of critical questions that need to be answered in the course of evaluating whether decision support is effective. The answers, if carefully considered early on, may help to design processes that may in fact produce more useable products, facilitate their use, and ultimately create intended and desirable outcomes. 相似文献
8.
《Global Environmental Change》2006,16(2):170-181
Science-based stakeholder dialogues are structured communication processes linking scientists with societal actors, such as representatives of companies, NGOs, governments, and the wider public. Stakeholders possess knowledge needed by scientists to better comprehend, represent and analyse global change problems as well as decision-makers’, managers’ and other stakeholders’ mental models. We will examine the relevance of three theoretical frameworks for science-based stakeholder dialogues in the context of sustainability science. These are Rational Actor Paradigm, Bayesian Learning and Organisational Learning. All three contribute to a better theoretical framework for dialogue practice and the understanding of stakeholders as actors in society and in research in particular. Furthermore, these theories are important for tool development. A combination of analytical and communication tools is recommended to facilitate stakeholder dialogues. The paper refers to examples of dialogue practice gained in the European Climate Forum (ECF). 相似文献
9.
Edward A. Parson Robert W. Corell Eric J. Barron Virginia Burkett Anthony Janetos Linda Joyce Thomas R. Karl Michael C. MacCracken Jerry Melillo M. Granger Morgan David S. Schimel Thomas Wilbanks 《Climatic change》2003,57(1-2):9-42
Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate. 相似文献
10.
Interactions between researchers and practitioners can lead to the increased use of climate science in decision-making. Past studies on these interactions have focused on the information needs of decision-makers, but less is known about why and how climate researchers choose to engage with decision-makers. Understanding the experiences, beliefs and constraints on both sides of the ‘knowledge-action gap’ is critical for implementing robust climate adaptation strategies. This study thus examines the perspectives and experiences of researchers regarding practitioner engagement, drawing from an original survey of California's climate research community (N= 991) and supplemental interviews. Given a history of support for climate research and climate change adaptation, analysis of the California case is useful as a means of characterizing the relationship between climate research and practitioner engagement. We find that most scientists want to engage more with practitioners but are constrained by several factors, including resource limitations and the challenge of building relationships. Additionally, we find that the level of interest and frequency of engagement with stakeholders varies significantly across academic disciplines. We demonstrate that building capacity within research organizations and integrating stakeholder engagement in funding criteria and professional development can help foster relationship-building between scientists and decision-makers. The analysis suggests that the social structure of climate research warrants further examination of the ways that climate researchers relate to practitioners at present. 相似文献
11.
Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 1: baseline climate 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Assessing future climate and its potential implications on river flows is a key challenge facing water resource planners. Sound, scientifically-based advice to decision makers also needs to incorporate information on the uncertainty in the results. Moreover, existing bias in the reproduction of the ‘current’ (or baseline) river flow regime is likely to transfer to the simulations of flow in future time horizons, and it is thus critical to undertake baseline flow assessment while undertaking future impacts studies. This paper investigates the three main sources of uncertainty surrounding climate change impact studies on river flows: uncertainty in GCMs, in downscaling techniques and in hydrological modelling. The study looked at four British catchments’ flow series simulated by a lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff model with observed and GCM-derived rainfall series representative of the baseline time horizon (1961–1990). A block-resample technique was used to assess climate variability, either from observed records (natural variability) or reproduced by GCMs. Variations in mean monthly flows due to hydrological model uncertainty from different model structures or model parameters were also evaluated. Three GCMs (HadCM3, CCGCM2, and CSIRO-mk2) and two downscaling techniques (SDSM and HadRM3) were considered. Results showed that for all four catchments, GCM uncertainty is generally larger than downscaling uncertainty, and both are consistently greater than uncertainty from hydrological modelling or natural variability. No GCM or downscaling technique was found to be significantly better or to have a systematic bias smaller than the others. This highlights the need to consider more than one GCM and downscaling technique in impact studies, and to assess the bias they introduce when modelling river flows. 相似文献
12.
Jeremy S. Littell David L. Peterson Constance I. Millar Kathy A. O’Halloran 《Climatic change》2012,110(1-2):269-296
Developing appropriate management options for adapting to climate change is a new challenge for land managers, and integration of climate change concepts into operational management and planning on United States national forests is just starting. We established science–management partnerships on the Olympic National Forest (Washington) and Tahoe National Forest (California) in the first effort to develop adaptation options for specific national forests. We employed a focus group process in order to establish the scientific context necessary for understanding climate change and its anticipated effects, and to develop specific options for adapting to a warmer climate. Climate change scientists provided the scientific knowledge base on which adaptations could be based, and resource managers developed adaptation options based on their understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and management. General adaptation strategies developed by national forest managers include: (1) reduce vulnerability to anticipated climate-induced stress by increasing resilience at large spatial scales, (2) consider tradeoffs and conflicts that may affect adaptation success, (3) manage for realistic outcomes and prioritize treatments that facilitate adaptation to a warmer climate, (4) manage dynamically and experimentally, and (5) manage for structure and composition. Specific adaptation options include: (1) increase landscape diversity, (2) maintain biological diversity, (3) implement early detection/rapid response for exotic species and undesirable resource conditions, (4) treat large-scale disturbance as a management opportunity and integrate it in planning, (5) implement treatments that confer resilience at large spatial scales, (6) match engineering of infrastructure to expected future conditions, (7) promote education and awareness about climate change among resource staff and local publics, and (8) collaborate with a variety of partners on adaptation strategies and to promote ecoregional management. The process described here can quickly elicit a large amount of information relevant for adaptation to climate change, and can be emulated for other national forests, groups of national forests with similar resources, and other public lands. As adaptation options are iteratively generated for additional administrative units on public lands, management options can be compared, tested, and integrated into adaptive management. Science-based adaptation is imperative because increasing certainty about climate impacts and management outcomes may take decades. 相似文献
13.
Adaptation to climate change is about planning for the future while responding to current pressures and challenges. Adaptation scientists are increasingly using future visioning exercises embedded in co-production and co-development techniques to assist stakeholders in imagining futures in a changing climate. Even if these exercises are growing in popularity, surprisingly little scrutiny has been placed on understanding the fundamental assumptions and choices in scenario approaches, timeframes, scales, or methods, and whether they result in meaningful changes in how adaptation is being thought about. Here, we unpack key insights and experiences across 62 case studies that specifically report on using future visioning exercises to engage stakeholders in climate change adaptation. We focus on three key areas: 1) Stakeholder diversity and scales; 2) Tools, methods, and data, and 3) Practical constraints, enablers, and outcomes. Our results show that most studies focus on the regional scale (n = 32; 52%), involve mainly formal decision makers and employ vast array of different methods, tools, and data. Interestingly, most exercises adopt either predictive (what will happen) and explorative (what could happen) scenarios while only a fraction use the more normative (what should happen) scenarios that could enable more transformative thinking. Reported positive outcomes include demonstrated increases in climate change literacy and support for climate change adaptation planning. Unintended and unexpected outcomes include increased anxiety in cases where introduced timeframes go beyond an individual’s expected life span and decreased perceived necessity for undertaking adaptation at all. Key agreed factors that underpin co-production and equal representation, such as gender, age, and diversity, are not well reported, and most case studies do not use reflective processes to harness participant feedback that could enable more robust methodology development. This is a missed opportunity in developing a more fundamental understanding of how these exercises can effectively shift individual and collective mindsets and advance the inclusion of different viewpoints as a pathway for more equitable and just climate adaptation. 相似文献
14.
15.
The goal of this study was to support an assessment of the potential effects of climate change on select natural, social, and economic resources in the Yakima River Basin. A workshop with local stakeholders highlighted the usefulness of projecting climate change impacts on anadromous steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a fish species of importance to local tribes, fisherman, and conservationists. Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of steelhead. For this study, we developed water temperature models for the Satus and Toppenish watersheds, two of the key stronghold areas for steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We constructed the models with the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP), a mechanistic approach to simulate water temperature in a stream network. The models were calibrated over the April 15, 2008 to September 30, 2008 period and validated over the April 15, 2009 to September 30, 2009 period using historic measurements of stream temperature and discharge provided by the Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management Program. Once validated, the models were run to simulate conditions during the spring and summer seasons over a baseline period (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios with increased air temperature of 1 °C and 2 °C. The models simulated daily mean and maximum water temperatures at sites throughout the two watersheds under the baseline and future climate scenarios. 相似文献
16.
The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change and climate extremes in part because they concentrate many activities,
people and wealth in limited areas. As a result they represent an important scale for assessment and understanding of climate
change impacts. This paper provides a conceptual and methodological framework for urban economic impact assessment of climate
change. The focus of the paper is on model-based analysis of future scenarios, including a framing of uncertainty for these
projections, as one valuable input into the decision-making process. The paper highlights the main assessment difficulties,
methods and tools, and selected examples across these areas. A number of challenges are unique to climate change impact assessment
and others are unique to the problem of working at local scales. The paper also identifies the need for additional research,
including the need for more integrated and systemic approaches to address climate change as a part of the urban development
challenge as well as the need to assess the economic impacts of climate change and response policy at local scale. 相似文献
17.
Climate change assessments which have considered climate impacts of a 2xCO2 climate, using models of the global agricultural system, have found small impacts on overall production, but larger regional changes. Production shifts among regions can be considered one mechanism for adaptation. Adaptation at the farm level, through changes in crops, cultivars, and production practices, is another adaptation mechanism. Existing studies differ in how important these mechanisms will be. Studies that have considered yield effects at specific sites have found very wide ranges of impacts. A useful way to evaluate the impacts of climate change, given the uncertainty about future impacts, is to consider vulnerability. Studies have defined vulnerability in terms of yield, farm profitability, regional economy, and hunger. Vulnerability and climate impacts, particularly in terms of higher order effects on profitability and sustainability, will depend on how society and the economy develop. Lower income populations and marginal agricultural regions, particularly arid or flood prone areas, are most vulnerable to climate change. 相似文献
18.
Incorporating climate change into water resources planning for the town of Polokwane,South Africa 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
James Cullis Ken Strzepek Mark Tadross Karim Sami Beyers Havenga Burgert Gildenhuys Joel Smith 《Climatic change》2011,108(3):437-456
Incorporating climate change into water resource planning is crucial to ensuring sustainable growth and development. The aim
of this study was to investigate how the proposed steps to incorporating climate change into project planning developed by
USAID could be applied in practice using the town of Polokwane in northeastern South Africa as a case study. Two Regional
Circulation Models (RCMs) and statistical downscaling from a range of General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to produce
a set of monthly climate scenarios for 2025 and 2050. These scenarios were used to estimate the impact on surface water runoff
in the Olifants River catchment and the Letaba River catchment, and groundwater recharge in the Sand River Aquifer. The impact
on the potential yields from the existing Flag Bashielo Dam and other proposed dams in the Olifants River catchment were determined
using the Water Resources Yield Model (WRYM). The results of the analysis were discussed at a regional stakeholders workshop.
The workshop participants concluded that the higher priority for now should be on water conservation and demand management
(WCDM) and to consider a phased approach to developing additional storage capacity. The results of this study show that the
six-stage process for incorporating climate change into resource planning can be applied in practice and that the potential
threat of climate change can give emphasis to existing win–win approaches such as WCDM and phased implementation that should
form part of any sustainable water resource planning approach. 相似文献
19.
The workshop focused on methodologies to assess the impacts of climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and their socioeconomic consequences. It did not deal in any detail with the other components (i.e., models designed to estimate changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases or in climatic factors) of an integrated assessment shown in Figure 2 of the introduction. This final chapter discusses some of the issues addressed during the San Diego workshop and highlights a few of the major findings of the papers. Issues discussed below include limitations of past modeling efforts and impediments to developing better models of the impacts of climate change on forest, grassland, and water resources; suggestions for future research both to develop better data and models and to employ existing data and modeling capabilities to improve the usefulness of climate impact assessments for policy purposes; and the need for developing a common assessment framework.The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of their institutions or the other participants in the February 28 to March 3, 1993 workshop held in San Diego, California. 相似文献
20.
There is a well-established need for increased stakeholder participation in the generation of adaptive management approaches and specific solutions to complex environmental problems. However, integrating participant feedback into current science, research, and decision-making processes is challenging. This paper presents a novel approach that marries a rigorous Delphi method, borrowed from policy and organizational sciences, with contemporary “crowdsourcing” to address the complex problems of water pollution exacerbated by climate change in the Lake Champlain Basin. In an online Delphi forum that occurred over a six-week period during the Spring of 2014, fifty-three participants proposed and commented on adaptive solutions to address water quality in the context of climate change. In a follow up Multi-Stakeholder workshop, thirty-eight stakeholders participated in refining and synthesizing the results from the forum. To inform modeling and policy dialogue, the resulting list of interventions was analyzed by time horizon, domain, type of adaptation action, and priority level. The interventions suggested by stakeholders within the crowdsourcing forum have contributed to the current policy dialogue in Vermont including legislation to address phosphorus loading to Lake Champlain. This stakeholder approach strengthens traditional modeling scenario development to include solutions and priorities that have been collectively refined and vetted. 相似文献