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1.
According to the National Research Council’s Committee on Earth Resources the stated goal of the “sustainability” paradigm is that the economic activity that maintains current well-being not make future generations worse off, either through environmental degradation or resource depletion. Coal is not “running out” in the United States but the effects of economic deregulation of electricity generation, new air quality standards (Phase II of the 1990 Clear Air Act Amendments), and continued restructuring of the coal mining industry will likely stretch lowsulfur coal supplies in the next decade. The paper discusses these forces and then presents summary coal quality data in the form of grade-cumulative tonnage relationships for major U.S. producing areas to show where future low-sulfur coal supplies are likely to come from. The final section considers the potential magnitude of additional demand for low-sulfur coal, alternative compliance strategies, and implications in terms of maintaining economic efficiency and in terms of the “sustainability paradigm.”  相似文献   

2.
This paper examines three issues related to both the U.S. and world oil supply: (1) the nature of the long-term, postpeak production profile for the U.S. and, by inference, other regions (the Hubbert curve is used as a “strawman” model); (2) implications on U.S. energy security of using a modified Hubbert-type conceptual model of prepeak production, testing the adequacy of Latin America to be the primary source of U.S. oil imports; and (3) the cyclic behavior of oil prices. it shows that U.S. production will exhibit a more attenuated decline than that simulated by the Hubbert curve and not decline to zero. it asserts that U.S. production is better predicted by past reserves than past production, but that this argument does not apply to nations that keep a much larger proportion of reserves in the ground. Such nations could considerably expand production without any growth in reserves. The paper concedes that the potential total production for these nations could be examined with a Hubbert curve model linked to reserves, but with great uncertainty. Such an uncertain optimistic forecast predicts that the cumulative production of Latin America could far exceed that of the United States. Nevertheless, a statistical model of oil prices since 1870 implies that real wellhead oil prices in the United States are on a long-term upward path, underlying a much more “noisy” cyclical pattern estimated to include 22- and 27-year cycles. The statistical model predicts a severe oil shock within a few years (of 1998) but also predicts that through 2030, real oil prices will not reach 1981 levels again. The paper examines U.S. and world trends in seismic exploration, drilling locations and depths, drilling costs, oil/gas reserves, oil/gas use rates, and oil demand. After taking these factors into consideration, it concludes that the statistical model of oil prices cannot be disputed, despite its lack of basis in economic theory.  相似文献   

3.
This paper examines the implications of statements by Australia’s Minister of… Resources that Australia’s exports of coal are growing rapidly and that Australia’s coal will last “110 years at current rates of production.” If one assumes that coal production P(t), follows a Gaussian curve (similar to a Hubbert curve) one can construct a family of Gaussian curves showing possible future paths of P(t) which are consistent with the cited “110 years.” Each curve reaches a maximum after which P(t) declines toward zero. Knowledge of the present value of dP/dt allows one member of the family to be identified as the most probable future path of P(t). Families of curves and tabular data are presented for resource quantities that would last 50, 100 and 200 years “at current rates of production.” If, instead, Australia’s P(t) follows a declining exponential curve (exp(−kt)) with k = (1/110) per year, the stated quantity of coal will allow production to continue forever, with P(t) declining with a half life of 76 y. This and more rapidly declining exponential paths are the only paths that can be said to be sustainable. The envelope of the family of Gaussian curves divides the (P, t) plane into “allowed” and “forbidden” areas. The declining exponential curve divides the “allowed” area into an upper area that is “terminal” and a lower area that is “sustainable.” These facts, coupled with Australia’s expectations of rapid growth of its population, suggest that Australia’s present resource policies are “anti-sustainable” and that the people of Australia need to rethink their present policy of rapidly exporting their fossil fuels.  相似文献   

4.
Stimulated by the exceeding progress of information technology, the development of mineral exploration has entered a new period of digitization and quantification. The “three components” approach of mineral prediction is suggested as a new approach to the “digital mineral prospecting,” which is based on the geoanomaly analysis, directed by the research on the diversity of mineralization and on the spectrum of mineral deposits. Close combination of these three aspects of quantitative study makes a new starting point to the digital prospecting. In this paper, the basic theories of the “three components” approach of mineral prediction are discussed. In addition, based on the new achievements in the studies on the prediction and assessment of solid minerals and gas–oil resources, we have centered our discussion on the thought of analysis of geoanomaly evolution and on the “5P” method for approaching the target area in the “three components” approach of mineral prediction.  相似文献   

5.
Presented are the results from expedition-based investigations made by the Institute of Geography SB RAS, and an analysis is made of the economic indices of development of the Okinsky district (Republic of Buryatia), which made it possible to draw a preliminary conclusion about the formation of the ecological tourism structure on the territory of Gornaya Oka and provide a rationale for the establishment of the “Gornaya Oka” natural park as a necessary and legislatively supported territory designed for rational and controlled utilization of tourist and recreational resources.  相似文献   

6.
Amalgamation of a number of continental fragments during the Late Neoproterozoic resulted in a united Gondwana continent. The time period in question, at the end of the Precambrian, spans about 250 million years between ∼800 and 550 Ma. Geological activity focused along orogenic belts in Africa during that time period is generally referred to as “Pan African.” We identify three age-related classes of tectonic terranes within these orogenic belts, differentiated on the basis of the formation-age of their crust: juvenile (e.g. mantle derived at or near the time of the orogenesis, ∼0.5–0.8 Ga), Paleoproterozoic (∼1.8–2.5 Ga), Archean (>2.5 Ga). We combine African mineral deposits data of these terranes on a new Neoproterozoic tectonic map of Africa. The spatial correlation between geological terranes in the belts and mineral occurrences are determined in order to define the metallogenic character of each terrane, which we refer to as their “metallogenic fingerprint.” We use these fingerprints to evaluate the effectiveness of mobilization (“recycling”) of mineral deposits within old crustal fragments during Pan African orogenesis. This analysis involves normalization factors derived from the average metallogenic fingerprints of pristine older crust (e.g. Palaeoproterozoic shields and Archean cratons not affected by Pan African orogenesis) and of juvenile Pan African crust (e.g. the Nubian Shield). We find that mineral deposit patterns are distinctly different in older crust that has been remobilized in the Pan African belts compared to those in juvenile crust of Neoproterozoic age, and that the concentration of deposits in remobilized older crust is in all cases significantly depleted relative to that in their pristine age-equivalents. Lower crustal sections (granulite domains) within the Pan African belts are also strongly depleted in mineral deposits relative to the upper crustal sections of juvenile Neoproterozoic terranes. A depletion factor for all terranes in Pan African orogens is derived with which to evaluate the role of mineral deposit recycling during orogenesis. We conclude that recycling of old mineral deposits in younger orogenic belts contributes, on average, to secular decrease of the total mineral endowment of continental crust. This could be of value when formulating exploration strategies.  相似文献   

7.
Defining the reference state of some perturbed streams and rivers is challenging since their non-altered state is undocumented. Despite the near-absence of pristine sites in highly anthropogenic areas, information about aquatic communities that existed prior to human disturbance can be obtained from historic sources. Sediment coring is commonly used in paleolimnology to estimate past environmental conditions of lakes, but this technique is often not appropriate for studies of lotic systems. An alternative is to use diatom assemblages present in the guts of fish that were captured in the streams prior to significant human disturbance. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the biological integrity of several streams in Ontario and Québec during the early twentieth century based on “paleo” diatom assemblages extracted from the guts of fish stored in museums. The Eastern Canadian diatom index (IDEC: Indice Diatomées de l’Est du Canada) was used to evaluate the biological status of “paleo” and “modern” diatom assemblages. The IDEC shows the position of diatom assemblages on a general pollution gradient. The comparison of IDEC values calculated for the 1925–1948 and the 2003–2007 periods showed that several streams were severely polluted in the early 1900s. In general, present water quality has declined compared to the early 1900s. The biological integrity of only three of the 22 sites has increased. IDEC values were not influenced by the species of fish studied.  相似文献   

8.
In this article the meaning of the quantity and quality of environmental flows of river in dualistic water cycle is discussed, and compared with the meaning of unitary water cycle. Based on the analysis of the relationship between environmental flows of river requirements, the efficiency of water resource usage, the consumption coefficient, and the concentration of waste water elimination, the water quantity and water quality calculation method of the environmental flows of river requirements in dualistic water cycle is developed, and the criteria for environmental flows of river requirements are established, and therefore the water quantity-quality combined evaluation of natural river flows requirements are realized Taking the Liaohe River as a model, the environmental flows of river requirements for Xiliao River, Dongliao River, mainstream Liaohe River, Huntai River and northeast rivers along the coasts of the Yellow and Bohai seas in unitary water cycle are calculated, each taking up 39.3%, 63.0%, 43.9%, 43.3% and 43.5% of runoff respectively. Evaluated according to Tennant recommended flow, the results show that： except Xiliao River is ＂median＂, the rest are all upon ＂good＂, the Dongliao River is even ＂very good＂. The corresponding results in dualistic water cycle are that, the proportion of natural flows for each river is 57.5%, 74.1%, 60.8%, 60.3% and 60.4%; while the combined evaluation results show that： considering ＂quantity＂, except Xiliao River, the rest rivers can all achieve the ＂quantity＂ criteria of the en- vironmental flows of river requirements, but if considering the aspect of ＂quality＂, only Dongliao River can reach the ＂quality＂ standard. By water quantity-quality combined evaluation method, only Dongliao River can achieve the criteria. So the water quality is the main factor that determines whether the environmental flows can meet the river ecosystem demands.  相似文献   

9.
西辽河流域全新世以来的农业垦殖活动(英文)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
The agricultural reclamations in the Xiliao River Valley since the Holocene have led to a huge landscape change from grassland to farmland. In this paper we reconsider the man-land relationship in the Xiliao River Valley by analyzing three major agricultural reclamations in prehistory, the Liao-Jin Dynasty and the period since the Qing Dynasty. We argue that when the demographic pressure appears in this area, especially during the last reclamation, the intraregional migration (second migration) is the major response to relieve such pressure, which also distinguishes two different settlement locations: "the initial area" and "the secondary area". Due to the environmental differences between these two areas, the cultivation on the latter one has caused more serious disturbance to the local environment. Thus the secondary area has become the key region which needs environmental management seri-ously.  相似文献   

10.
The spatial distribution of discovered resources may not fully mimic the distribution of all such resources, discovered and undiscovered, because the process of discovery is biased by accessibility factors (e.g., outcrops, roads, and lakes) and by exploration criteria. In data-driven predictive models, the use of training sites (resource occurrences) biased by exploration criteria and accessibility does not necessarily translate to a biased predictive map. However, problems occur when evidence layers correlate with these same exploration factors. These biases then can produce a data-driven model that predicts known occurrences well, but poorly predicts undiscovered resources. Statistical assessment of correlation between evidence layers and map-based exploration factors is difficult because it is difficult to quantify the “degree of exploration.” However, if such a degree-of-exploration map can be produced, the benefits can be enormous. Not only does it become possible to assess this correlation, but it becomes possible to predict undiscovered, instead of discovered, resources. Using geothermal systems in Nevada, USA, as an example, a degree-of-exploration model is created, which then is resolved into purely explored and unexplored equivalents, each occurring within coextensive study areas. A weights-of-evidence (WofE) model is built first without regard to the degree of exploration, and then a revised WofE model is calculated for the “explored fraction” only. Differences in the weights between the two models provide a correlation measure between the evidence and the degree of exploration. The data used to build the geothermal evidence layers are perceived to be independent of degree of exploration. Nevertheless, the evidence layers correlate with exploration because exploration has preferred the same favorable areas identified by the evidence patterns. In this circumstance, however, the weights for the “explored” WofE model minimize this bias. Using these revised weights, posterior probability is extrapolated into unexplored areas to estimate undiscovered deposits.  相似文献   

11.
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12.
社会生态补偿标准测算方法(英文)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Ecological compensation is a hot subject in academic studies, and the determina-tion of the spatial allocation of compensation payments is a key point in the research of eco-logical compensation. There are two kinds of thoughts in the determination of regional spatial allocation at present: "evaluation of ecological construction cost" and "evaluation of ecosystem services value". This paper analyzes the relationships between social ecological compensation and regional socio-economic development, and establishes two econometric models with the data of 2007 from various provinces in China. Through these models, the impacts of geographical endowments on the regional socio-economic development in various provinces are analyzed from the social justice viewpoint and the concept of "equivalent value of geographical endowments" (EGE for short) is proposed. This paper analyzes the application prospect of EGE in the policy making of regional ecological compensation. The results showed that: (1) the implementation of social ecological compensation is not only an effective guarantee for each region to obtain the equal rights of survival, development and decent environment, but also an essential assurance to the coordinated, balanced and sustainable development among various regions; (2) the regional difference in geographical endowments is an important factor affecting the regional spatial variation of socio-economic development. Therefore, geographical endowments are important bases for the determination of the spatial allocation of compensation payments in social ecological compensation; (3) based on the EGE, the government can determine the spatial allocation of social ecological compensation scientifically, and avoid the "sweeping approach" phenomenon in the policy making process of ecological compensation.  相似文献   

13.
土地利用变化时空模型的图谱方法--以黄河三角洲为例   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  
Changesinlandcoverandland-usehaveimpactsandimplicationsatlocal,regionalandglobalscalesbecauseofthewaytheyalterbiophysical,biogeochemicalandhydrologicalstatesandprocesses(Alcamoetal.,1996;Li,1996).Since1990,scientistsathomeandabroadhavebeenpayingattentiontoresearchesonland-useandland-coverchange(LUCC)(Turneretal.,1990;MeyerandTurner,1994),butresearchisnotenoughon"spaceandprocess"ofLUCC(Turneretal.,1995).Spatialrelationshipbetweenvariablesyethasnotbeenestablished(Bockstael,1996).Soitispara…  相似文献   

14.
From a rare freshwater lake characteristic of alkalescence, named “Cattle Pond”, on the Dongdao Island of South China Sea (16°39′–16°41′ N, 112°43′–112°45′ E), we collected two undisturbed sediment cores that contain seabird droppings. In this paper, we determined the concentration-versus-depth profiles of the geochemical elements in the ornithogenic sediment layers of the two cores, analyzed these profiles by various statistical methods, and studied their geochemical characteristics. The concentration profiles of As, Cd, Cu, Se, Zn, P and S are significantly correlated with each other and with loss on ignition (LOI) at 550°C, the measure for the abundance of organic matter. Similar geochemical characteristics, however, were not observed in the upper sediment layer of the Cattle Pond notably affected by cattle excrements, as well as in the bottom sediment layer compositionally dominated by coral sand and gravel. This shows that these “bio-elements” are mainly derived from seabird feces and their geochemical composition is an important geochemical characteristic of the lacustrine ornithogenic sediments. By Q-mode factor analysis (QFA) on the concentration profiles of these bio-elements, we reconstructed the historical seabird population on Dongdao Island between 1350 and 350 year B.P., and observed significant fluctuations in the calculated population. The fluctuations seem to be related to the change of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Southern China Sea. This study provides new paleoenvironmental information of past seabird population changes in low latitude areas using an indirect geochemical method.  相似文献   

15.
Based on energy balance equation and mass transfer equation, a general model to estimate actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces was derived. Making use of two concepts, “relative evaporation” and “relative drying power”, a relationship was established to account for the departure from saturated conditions. Using this model, the actual evaporation (evapotranspiration) can be calculated without the need of potential evaporation estimation. Furthermore, the model requires only a few meteorological parameters that are readily and routinely obtainable at standard weather stations. Based on nearly 30 years data of 432 meteorological stations and 512 hydrological stations in China, in combined with GIS, nine typical river basins were selected. Using the data of the selected river basins, the model was tested. The results show that the actual evaporation rate can be estimated with an error of less than 10% in most areas of China, except few years in the Yellow River Basin.  相似文献   

16.
The US Geological Survey’s 1995 estimates of domestic undiscovered plus undeveloped natural gas nearly tripled quantities estimated in its 1989 Assessment. Much of the increase came from selected unconventional resources assessed using the paradigm of continuous-type accumulations. These include such seemingly unrelated “unconventional” gas occurrences as “tight gas,” coalbed gas, gas in shales, and deep basin-center gas. Though only a small fraction of the assessed 352 trillion cubic feet is now economic, the quantity is nevertheless significant. Moreover, the lowest cost resources are close to major gas markets where competing conventional gas is modest. With continued technological improvements these resources can contribute significantly to future U.S. gas supply, even without subsidies  相似文献   

17.
The concept of territorial justice is developed. The principles of ensuring it are formulated. The method is suggested for determining the regional dissonances between the manufacture of gross national product and income of the population. The method offers promise as a necessary coupling tool for identifying potential regions: “donors” and “recipients”.  相似文献   

18.
We present a Holocene record of climate and environmental change in central New York (USA) inferred using lithologic and stable isotope data from two sediment cores recovered in Cayuga Lake. The record was divided into three intervals: (1) early Holocene (~11.6–8.8 ka), (2) Hypsithermal (~8.8–4.4 ka), and (3) Neoglacial (~4.4 ka to present). The early Holocene began abruptly, with rising lake level and relatively deep water. Between ~10.8 and 9.2 ka, cool and dry conditions prevailed at a time of maximum solar insolation. This anomaly has been referred to as the “post-Younger Dryas climate interval” and lasted ~1,600 years, the approximate length of one “Bond cycle.” The Hypsithermal was the warmest, wettest and most biologically productive interval of the Holocene in central New York. The Hypsithermal was characterized by centennial to multi-centennial-scale variability. The 8.2 ka event is one such variation. The Neoglacial was an interval of generally cooler and dryer conditions, falling lake levels, and several prominent climate anomalies. At approximately 2.4 ka, δ13C of bulk organic matter increased abruptly by 5‰ as lake level declined, and the lake flora was dominated by Chara sp. during the coldest interval of the Neoglacial. Numerous sediment variables display increased variability ~2.0 ka, which continues today. Archaeological data from the literature suggest that Native American populations may have been large enough to impact land cover by about 2.4 ka and we hypothesize that the “Anthropocene” began at about that time in central New York. We also found paleolimnological evidence for the Medieval Warm Period (~1.4–0.5 ka), which was warmer and wetter than today, and for the Little Ice Age (~500–150 years ago), a period with temperatures colder than today.  相似文献   

19.
The “greatest lake period” means that the lakes are in the stage of their maximum areas. As the paleo lake shorelines are widely distributed in the lake basins on the Tibetan Plateau, the lake areas during the “greatest lake period” may be inferred by the last highest lake shorelines. They are several, even tens times larger than that at present. According to the analyses of tens of lakes on the Plateau, most dating data fell into the range of 40-25 ka BP, some lasted to 20 ka BP. It was corresponded to the stage 3 of marine isotope and interstitial of last glaciation. The occurrence of maximum areas of lakes marked the very humid period on the Plateau and was also related to the stronger summer monsoon during that period.  相似文献   

20.
We describe a palaeolimnological meta-database (“LakeCores”) that includes information for lakes in Europe that have been cored for studies of recent environmental change. Only cores with intact mud-water interfaces and good chronologies for the last ~100–200 years are currently included. The information provided in the database includes the general characteristics of the lakes cored, the methods used for dating and analysis and the bibliographic source of the information selected. At present the database contains information on 1847 studies from 975 sites. Here we use the database to identify cores for which diatom-based pH and total phosphorus (TP) reconstructions have been derived and, from an inspection of the relevant papers, we compile summary data for the timing and extent of acidification and eutrophication of lakes across Europe. We show that there were few cases of acidification and eutrophication in Europe prior to about 1850, and therefore that conditions prior to 1850 can be used for reference with respect to current attempts to restore surface waters to “good ecological status”. We also show the extent to which pH and TP levels have changed across the continent both for all lakes, and, in the case of TP, for lakes of different types covering a range of alkalinities, altitudes, water depths and surface areas.  相似文献   

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