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1.
Statistical damage detection method for frame structures using a confidence interval 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
<正>A novel damage detection method is applied to a 3-story frame structure,to obtain statistical quantification control criterion of the existence,location and identification of damage.The mean,standard deviation,and exponentially weighted moving average(EWMA) are applied to detect damage information according to statistical process control(SPC) theory.It is concluded that the detection is insignificant with the mean and EWMA because the structural response is not independent and is not a normal distribution.On the other hand,the damage information is detected well with the standard deviation because the influence of the data distribution is not pronounced with this parameter.A suitable moderate confidence level is explored for more significant damage location and quantification detection,and the impact of noise is investigated to illustrate the robustness of the method. 相似文献
2.
基于地震对应概率谱的多参数综合异常研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
在单参数地震对应概率谱和累计滑动平均概率方法的基础上,研究了多参数滑动极值平均概率方法,用以定量识别地震前兆综合异常特征.首先,该方法基于地震对应概率谱分析,将原始数据时间序列转换成概率时间序列;其次,采用多点累计滑动平均方法得到不同参数滑动平均概率Pij;再次,求解不同参数的多点滑动极值概率Mij;最后,求解多参数滑动极值平均概率Pc.文中以新疆天山地区不同地震学参数的时间序列为原始数据进行算例分析,结果表明,当考察时段为18个月时,利用多参数滑动极值平均概率可以较好地识别地震前兆综合异常,其异常对应比例和地震对应比例分别为13/13和22/27,异常信度较高,但存在一定程度的漏报现象. 相似文献
3.
对解释模型进行评价以及如何选择合适的解释模型是复杂岩性解释中非常重要的问题。本文应用统计学的理论以及非线性优化技术,系统研究了在线性约束条件下对储层参数的置信区域和误差大小进行估计的问题,通过将梯度投影算法与奇异值分解技术相结合的方法给出了计算储层参数置信区域与误差大小的公式,以及对复杂岩性解释模型的稳定性和可靠性进行合理评价的具体方法。最后通过数值计算实例研究了一种能够有效提高解释模型稳定性和可靠性的措施,数值计算结果证明解释模型响应函数的最小非零奇异值大小是影响稳定性和可靠性的一个重要参数,当最小非零奇异值较大时,模型的稳定性往往较好,否则较差,因此通过对解释模型进行适当组合并选取最小非零奇异值较大的综合解释模型,可以大大提高其稳定性和可靠性。 相似文献
4.
Data on 13 median leachate qualities at 56 landfills show a multivariate character, A simulation technique is used to include this multivariate character of leachate quality in assessing false negative error rates for statistical tests of ground-water quality. Although the technique makes gross simplifying assumptions regarding the conservative mixing of leachate and ground water, the technique is more appropriate than traditional statistical methods for simulating false negative error rates that neglect correlations among water quality parameters. The technique is applied to the simple case of a control chart, intrawell statistical test of ground-water contamination. Simulation results show that both the false positive and false negative errors of statistical tests can be reduced when tests include more parameters and a higher confidence level; thus, the technique can provide a “win-win” situation for regulators and the regulated. 相似文献
5.
Modal parameters of structural systems have commonly been determined using system identification (SI) methods for damage detection and health monitoring. For determining the deterioration of the integrity of structural systems correctly, modal parameters of a healthy structure have to be obtained with adequate certainty so that these parameters can be used as reliable references for the healthy system to compare with those of the damaged system. In this study, the statistical significance of modal parameters identified using strong motion time histories recorded on two bridge structures is assessed. The confidence intervals of identified modal frequencies and damping ratios are obtained using Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analyses in conjunction with eigenrealization algorithm. The dependence of the statistical bounds on model parameters is examined. The effect of using different number of sensors on the statistical significance is evaluated using simulated time history data from a validated finite element model of a bridge. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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7.
We examine the one-dimensional direct current method in anisotropic earth formation. We derive an analytic expression of a simple, two-layered anisotropic earth model. Further, we also consider a horizontally layered anisotropic earth response with respect to the digital filter method, which yields a quasi-analytic solution over anisotropic media. These analytic and quasi-analytic solutions are useful tests for numerical codes. A two-dimensional finite difference earth model in anisotropic media is presented in order to generate a synthetic data set for a simple one-dimensional earth. Further, we propose a particle swarm optimization method for estimating the model parameters of a layered anisotropic earth model such as horizontal and vertical resistivities, and thickness. The particle swarm optimization is a naturally inspired meta-heuristic algorithm. The proposed method finds model parameters quite successfully based on synthetic and field data. However, adding 5 % Gaussian noise to the synthetic data increases the ambiguity of the value of the model parameters. For this reason, the results should be controlled by a number of statistical tests. In this study, we use probability density function within 95 % confidence interval, parameter variation of each iteration and frequency distribution of the model parameters to reduce the ambiguity. The result is promising and the proposed method can be used for evaluating one-dimensional direct current data in anisotropic media. 相似文献
8.
Haitao Wang Qiong Wang Lanlan Tang Lanzhou Base of Institute of Earthquake Science China Earthquake Administration Lanzhou China Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Urumqi China 《地震学报(英文版)》2009,(6):675-681
With the aim to the quantification of anomaly identification and extraction for observed or analyzed records, we present two statistical methods of earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum(ECRS)and sliding mean relevancy (SMR).With ECRS method,we can obtain the abnormal confidence attribute of data in different value ranges.Based on the relevancy spectrum in different studied time-intervals,we convert the original time sequence into relevancy time sequence, and can obtain the SMR time series by using the... 相似文献
9.
K. Kaatra 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》1978,6(4):321-328
Saprobiological analyses of phytoplankton were made with both the 10-point-system of saprobic valency and the method of the saprobic index “S”. Means, standard deviations, standard errors, and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for the results of these evaluations. The limits of the 95% confidence interval for the points for oligo- and alpha-mesosaprobity differed by approximately 8% and those for beta-mesosaprobity by 2% from the mean. For the saprobic indices this difference was only 1%. A nested analysis of variance suggested a significant variation between different sampling stations in the points for oligosaprobity, whereas in the points for beta- and alphamesosaprobity a significant variation was found between the results from the two depths of sampling. In addition to the statistical treatments, a short review of the development of saprobity in the summer of 1971 based on zooplankton data was also made. 相似文献
10.
There are explained the statistical fundamentals of the estimation of the number of bacteria by means of the most-probable-number method (MPN method) inclusive of the confidence intervals and the probability of the sample results. On this basis, a program in Turbo-Pascal is prepared for the operating systems C/PM or MS-DOS for the computation of both single MPN estimations and complete tables inclusive of probability and confidence limits, their listing being appended. 相似文献
11.
提出一种基于Bootstrap重抽样技术的岩土参数标准值确定方法,将置信概率为95%对应的重抽样均值作为标准值,并通过一组实测土体的抗剪强度参数阐述标准值的确定方法和过程。对两个实例进行研究,分别探讨Bootstrap重抽样次数(即Bootstrap样本集大小)和原始数据的变异性对标准值精度和收敛性的影响。结果表明,基于Bootstrap方法确定的岩土参数标准值具有较好的收敛性和精度,当重抽样次数不小于100时,Bootstrap重抽样次数和原始样本的变异性对标准值的收敛性和精度不会产生显著影响。该方法能够有效地处理岩土参数的不确定性问题。 相似文献
12.
J.-H. Heo J. D. Salas K.-D. Kim 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2001,15(4):284-309
Estimation of confidence limits and intervals for the two- and three-parameter Weibull distributions are presented based
on the methods of moment (MOM), probability weighted moments (PWM), and maximum likelihood (ML). The asymptotic variances
of the MOM, PWM, and ML quantile estimators are derived as a function of the sample size, return period, and parameters. Such
variances can be used for estimating the confidence limits and confidence intervals of the population quantiles. Except for
the two-parameter Weibull model, the formulas obtained do not have simple forms but can be evaluated numerically. Simulation
experiments were performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantiles. The results show
that overall, the ML method for estimating the confidence limits performs better than the other two methods in terms of bias
and mean square error. This is specially so for γ≥0.5 even for small sample sizes (e.g. N=10). However, the drawback of the ML method for determining the confidence limits is that it requires that the shape parameter
be bigger than 2. The Weibull model based on the MOM, ML, and PWM estimation methods was applied to fit the distribution of
annual 7-day low flows and 6-h maximum annual rainfall data. The results showed that the differences in the estimated quantiles
based on the three methods are not large, generally are less than 10%. However, the differences between the confidence limits
and confidence intervals obtained by the three estimation methods may be more significant. For instance, for the 7-day low
flows the ratio between the estimated confidence interval to the estimated quantile based on ML is about 17% for T≥2 while it is about 30% for estimation based on MOM and PWM methods. In addition, the analysis of the rainfall data using
the three-parameter Weibull showed that while ML parameters can be estimated, the corresponding confidence limits and intervals
could not be found because the shape parameter was smaller than 2. 相似文献
13.
Statistical processing of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility measured on groups of specimens 总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21
Summary The theory of multivariate statistical processing of the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility, measured on a group of specimens, originating from a single geological body (outcrop, locality, etc.), is described. The result of the processing is an estimate of the mean normalized tensor and the estimates of the principal susceptibilities, derived from it, together with the respective intervals of confidence, and the estimates of the principal directions with the respective regions of confidence. An anisotropy test for a group of specimens is proposed. The function of the ANS21 computer program employed is briefly described and an example of its output plot is presented.Dedicated to RNDr. Jan Pícha, CSc., on his 60th Birthday 相似文献
14.
Introduction At present, the current probabilistic method of seismic hazard analysis in the world is gener-ally adopted in seismic safety evaluation (Cornell, 1968). It supposed that earthquake occurrence conforms to the segmented Poisson distribution model in time and space and the proportional rela-tion among earthquakes of various magnitudes obeys the cut-exponential distribution law in a sta-tistical area in compiling Seismic Intensity Zoning Map in China (1990) owing to the temporal- sp… 相似文献
15.
This paper presents novel methods for robust statistical testing of particle shape data. Shape (the relative lengths of three orthogonal axes) is a key property of sedimentary particles, providing information on provenance, transport history and depositional environment. However, the usefulness of shape data, including the ability to make robust comparisons between samples, has been constrained by the absence of a satisfactory definition of the mean shape for a sample of particles. Such a definition is proposed and used to develop confidence regions for the population mean shape using both parametric (theoretical) and computational (bootstrap) methods. These techniques are based on a transform that permits multivariate statistical methods for the analysis of compositional data to be extended to shape. These techniques are validated with reference to a dataset of 169 clast samples and found to perform well. A statistical test on the mean – using the multivariate extension of Student's t-test, Hotelling's T2 – is presented. The benefits of the methods presented are demonstrated with reference to a case study. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
Statistic inversion of multi-zone transition probability models for aquifer characterization in alluvial fans 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Lin Zhu Zhenxue Dai Huili Gong Carl Gable Pietro Teatini 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(3):1005-1016
Understanding the heterogeneity arising from the complex architecture of sedimentary sequences in alluvial fans is challenging. This paper develops a statistical inverse framework in a multi-zone transition probability approach for characterizing the heterogeneity in alluvial fans. An analytical solution of the transition probability matrix is used to define the statistical relationships among different hydrofacies and their mean lengths, integral scales, and volumetric proportions. A statistical inversion is conducted to identify the multi-zone transition probability models and estimate the optimal statistical parameters using the modified Gauss–Newton–Levenberg–Marquardt method. The Jacobian matrix is computed by the sensitivity equation method, which results in an accurate inverse solution with quantification of parameter uncertainty. We use the Chaobai River alluvial fan in the Beijing Plain, China, as an example for elucidating the methodology of alluvial fan characterization. The alluvial fan is divided into three sediment zones. In each zone, the explicit mathematical formulations of the transition probability models are constructed with optimized different integral scales and volumetric proportions. The hydrofacies distributions in the three zones are simulated sequentially by the multi-zone transition probability-based indicator simulations. The result of this study provides the heterogeneous structure of the alluvial fan for further study of flow and transport simulations. 相似文献
17.
The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. & Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237–1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffé-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters. 相似文献
18.
Two hundred and nineteen palaeomagnetic results are combined in calculating Gondwanan apparent polar wander paths, their confidence intervals, and the residual mean square errors about the paths, for six reconstructions.A quantitative assessment of the six reconstructions of Gondwanaland is made on the basis of the consistency of palaeomagnetic pole positions using a new statistical technique. Smith and Hallam's [1] Gondwanan reconstruction is the most effective in accounting for the distribution of the palaeomagnetic data and is used in calculating our preferred apparent polar wander path. 相似文献
19.
一种模拟随机数字地层模型的方法 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
介绍了一种利用计算机生成随机数字地层模型的方法。此方法根据给定的地层厚度及参数统计特性．按截尾正态分布进行随机抽样构建随机分层结构,并对各分层参数随机赋值,完成随机模型的构筑。用此方法可以很容易地在计算机上生成大量符合某种统计特性的随机数字层状地层模型,从而可以在这些模型上进行感兴趣的仿真模拟研究。为展示这一方法的应用,生成了10个第四系随机层状模型,并在这些模型上进行了地震SH波的地震动放大效应数字模拟实验。结果发现随机模型的响应无论在形态特点还是幅值上都与均值模型的响应显著不同,表明用不完全准确的参数模型模拟估计场址地震动响应时必须充分考虑到参数不准导致的误差。 相似文献
20.
V. L. Barsukov V. S. Serebrennikov A. A. Belyaev Yu. A. Bakaldin R. V. Arsenyeva 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1984,122(2-4):157-163
The discrimination of significant earthquake precursors from background noise is treated as a multistep problem of pattern recognition. Statistical characteristics of helium-content recorded in short time intervals are used as informative parameters. The set of calculated characteristics includes estimations of the mean, the variance, and the results of spectral analysis of the investigated time series. The selection of significant parameters and the rigorous estimations of time shifts between geochemical and seismic series are carried out by analyzing their cross-covariance function. It is established that the most informative characteristics of a hydrothermal system are related to the dynamic fluctuations of the geochemical parameters. The final phase of prediction is based on the application of a method of statistical discovery of images. A method of earthquake-time prediction is suggested. By using this method, we may determine the 10-day interval during which an earthquake may occur two months in advance. The prediction may be improved by increasing the frequency of sampling and by improving the precision of analytical measurements, both of which can be achieved by automation of monitoring devices. Deployment of uniform monitoring networks is needed in regions designated for special prediction tasks. 相似文献