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1.
This study investigates the relationship between violent conflict, food price, and climate variability at the subnational level. Using disaggregated data on 113 African markets from January 1997 to April 2010, interrelationships between the three variables are analyzed in simultaneous equation models. We find that: (i) a positive feedback exists between food price and violence – higher food prices increase conflict rates within markets and conflict increases food prices; (ii) anomalously dry conditions are associated with increased frequencies of conflict; and (iii) decreased rainfall exerts an indirect effect on conflict through its impact on food prices. These findings suggest that the negative effects of climate variability on conflict can be mitigated by interventions and effective price management in local markets. Creating environments in which food prices are stable and reliable, and markets are accessible and safe, can lower the impacts of both climate change and conflict feedbacks.  相似文献   

2.
Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk in response to climate change is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop such scenario-based projections. In this perspective article we discuss why quantifying implications of climate change for future armed conflict risk is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate change impact assessments and put out the challenges this poses for future research.  相似文献   

3.
Tackseung Jun 《Climatic change》2017,142(1-2):183-197
Civil conflicts have swept through many parts of sub-Saharan Africa in the past half century. Recently, scholars from backgrounds as diver as climate science, economics, political science, and anthropology have explored the effects of climate change on these civil conflicts, with mixed results. Our empirical results confirm effects of temperature on the incidence of civil conflict. The key findings are as follows: (i) between 1970 and 2012 in sub-Saharan Africa, a high temperature during maize growing season reduced the crop’s yield, which in turn increased the incidence of civil conflict and (ii) future expected warming is expected to increase civil conflict incidence by 33% in the period 2031–2050, and by 100% in the period 2081–3010, compared to levels between 1981 and 2000. These results highlight the importance of sufficient food supplies and adaptation to increased climate warming to facilitate peace in sub-Saharan Africa.  相似文献   

4.
The elevated risk of collision while driving during precipitation has been well documented by the road safety community, with heavy rainfall events of particular concern. As the climate warms in the coming century, altered precipitation patterns are likely. The current study builds on the extensive literature on weather-related driving risks and draws on the climate change impact literature in order to explore the implications of climate change for road safety. It presents both an approach for conducting such analyses, as well as empirical estimates of the direction and magnitude of change in road safety for the highly urbanized Greater Vancouver metropolitan region on Canada’s west coast. The signal that emerges from the analysis is that projections of greater rainfall frequency are expected to translate into higher collision counts by the mid 2050s. The greatest adverse safety impact is likely to be concentrated on moderate to heavy rainfall days (≥ 10 mm), which are associated with more highly elevated risks today. This suggests that particular attention should be paid to future changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events.  相似文献   

5.
Climate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and pay little attention to relevant context factors and especially causal pathways. By combining statistical approaches with systematic evidence from QCA and qualitative case studies in an innovative multi-method research design, we show that climate-related disasters increase the risk of armed conflict onset. This link is highly context-dependent and we find that countries with large populations, political exclusion of ethnic groups, and a low level of human development are particularly vulnerable. For such countries, almost one third of all conflict onsets over the 1980-2016 period have been preceded by a disaster within 7 days. The robustness of the effect is reduced for longer time spans. Case study evidence points to improved opportunity structures for armed groups rather than aggravated grievances as the main mechanism connecting disasters and conflict onset.  相似文献   

6.
Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of water-related hazards on human populations. This has generated security concerns and calls for urgent policy action. However, the simplified narrative that links climate change to security via water and violent conflict is wanting. First, it is not confirmed by empirical evidence. Second, it ignores the varied character and implications of hydro-climatic hazards, the multi-faceted nature of conflict and adaptive action, and crucial intricacies of security. Integrating for the first time research and findings from diverse disciplines, we provide a more nuanced picture of the climate-water-security nexus. We consider findings from the transboundary waters, armed conflict, vulnerability, and political ecology literatures and specify the implications and priorities for policy relevant research. Although the social effects of future hydro-climatic change cannot be safely predicted, there is a good understanding of the factors that aggravate risks to social wellbeing. To reduce vulnerability, pertinent democratic and social/civil security institutions should be strengthened where they exist, and promoted where they are still absent.  相似文献   

7.
A coupled land?Catmosphere model is used to explore the impact of seven commonly used canopy rainfall interception schemes on the simulated climate. Multiple 30-year simulations are conducted for each of the seven methods and results are analyzed in terms of the mean climatology and the probability density functions (PDFs) of key variables based on daily data. Results show that the method used for canopy interception strongly affects how rainfall is partitioned between canopy evaporation and throughfall. However, the impact on total evaporation is much smaller, and the impact on rainfall and air temperature is negligible. Similarly, the PDFs of canopy evaporation and transpiration for six selected regions are strongly affected by the method used for canopy interception, but the impact on total evaporation, temperature and precipitation is negligible. Our results show that the parameterization of rainfall interception is important to the surface hydrometeorology, but the seven interception parameterizations examined here do not cause a statistically significant impact on the climate of the coupled model. We suggest that broad scale climatological differences between coupled climate models are not likely the result of how interception is parameterized. This conclusion is inconsistent with inferences derived from earlier uncoupled simulations, or simulations using very simplified climate models.  相似文献   

8.
An urbanization bomb? Population growth and social disorder in cities   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
For the first time in history, the majority of the world population now lives in cities. Global urbanization will continue at high speed; the world's urban population is projected to increase by more than 3 billion people between 2010 and 2050. Some of this increase will be the result of high urban fertility rates and reclassification of rural land into urban areas, but a significant portion of future urbanization will be caused by rural-to-urban migration. This migration is expected to be particularly prevalent in countries and regions most affected by the changing climate. While urban populations generally enjoy a higher quality of life, many cities in the developing world have large slums with populations that are largely excluded from access to resources, jobs, and public services. In the environmental security literature, great rural resource scarcity, causing rural to urban migration, is seen as an important source of violent conflict. This study investigates how population growth affects patterns of public unrest in urban centers within the context of crucial intervening factors like democracy, poverty, economic shocks. It utilizes a newly collected event dataset of urban social disturbance covering 55 major cities in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa since 1960. The empirical analysis provides little support for the notion that high and increasing urban population pressure leads to a higher risk or frequency of social disorder. Instead, we find that urban disorder is primarily associated with a lack of consistent political institutions, economic shocks, and ongoing civil conflict.  相似文献   

9.
As a result of climate change, and in particular rainfall changes, agricultural production is likely to change across the globe. Until now most research has focused on areas which will become unsustainable for agricultural production. However, there are also regions where climate change might actually improve conditions for growth. In the western Pampas region of Argentina, average annual rainfall has increased by 100–200 mm over the last 70 years, mainly during summer. Wheat is grown during winter, primarily on stored soil water and the main factor limiting plant production in this area is rainfall. Using the well tested simulation model APSIM-NWheat, we studied whether recent climate change has potentially opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in Argentina. Simulation results indicated that the additional rainfall in the Pampas of Argentina has increased the achievable yield (defined as the yield limited by solar radiation, temperature, water and nitrogen supply) of wheat in the currently cropped region, but less than expected based on the large amount of additional rainfall. The higher achievable yield from additional rainfall could potentially allow an expansion of profitable wheat cropping into currently non-cropped areas, where the achievable wheat yield increased in average from 1 t/ha to currently 2 t/ha. However, the poor water-holding capacity of the sandy soils which dominate the region outside the current cropping area limits the systems ability to use most of the increased summer rainfall. Nevertheless, the current higher achievable yield indicates a suitability of the region for cropping, which will slightly decline or remain unchanged depending on summer rainfall storage, with current and future climate change, including projected changes in rainfall, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Factors other than just the achievable yield will eventually influence any future development of this region for cropping, including the high sensitivity of the sandy soils to erosion and nutrient leaching, current relatively high land prices, restrictions on clearing for cropping, the distance to the nearest port and current unsuitable cultivars withstanding the high frost risk.  相似文献   

10.
In a changing climate, changes in rainfall variability and, in particular, extreme rainfall events are likely to be highly significant for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. It is generally accepted that sea-surface temperatures play an important role in modulating rainfall variability, thus the majority work to date has focused on these mechanisms. However past research suggests that land surface processes are also critical for rainfall variability. In particular, work has suggested that the atmosphere-land surface feedback has been important for past abrupt climate changes, such as those which occurred over the Sahara during the mid-Holocene or, more recently, the prolonged Sahelian drought. Therefore the primary aim of this work is to undertake idealised experiments using both a regional and global climate model, to test the sensitivity of rainfall variability to land surface changes over a location where such abrupt climate changes are projected to occur in the future, namely southern Africa. In one experiment, the desert conditions currently observed over southwestern Africa were extended to cover the entire subcontinent. This is based on past research which suggests a remobilisation of sand dune activity and spatial extent under various scenarios of future anthropogenic global warming. In the second experiment, savanna conditions were imposed over all of southern Africa, representing an increase in vegetation for most areas except the equatorial regions. The results suggest that a decrease in rainfall occurs in the desert run, up to 27% of total rainfall in the regional model (relative to the control), due to a reduction in available moisture, less evaporation, less vertical uplift and therefore higher near surface pressure. This result is consistent across both the regional and global model experiments. Conversely an increase in rainfall occurs in the savanna run, because of an increase in available moisture giving an increase in latent heat and therefore surface temperature, increasing vertical uplift and lowering near surface pressure. These experiments, however, are only preliminary, and form the first stage of a wider study into how the atmosphere-land surface feedback influences rainfall extremes over southern Africa in the past (when surface i.e. vegetation conditions were very different) and in the future under various scenarios of future climate change. Future work will examine how other climate models simulate the atmosphere-land surface feedback, using more realistic vegetation types based on past and future surface conditions.  相似文献   

11.
A global map of drought risk has been elaborated at the sub-national administrative level. The motivation for this study is the observation that little research and no concerted efforts have been made at the global level to provide a consistent and equitable drought risk management framework for multiple regions, population groups and economic sectors. Drought risk is assessed for the period 2000–2014 and is based on the product of three independent determinants: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Drought hazard is derived from a non-parametric analysis of historical precipitation deficits at the 0.5°; drought exposure is based on a non-parametric aggregation of gridded indicators of population and livestock densities, crop cover and water stress; and drought vulnerability is computed as the arithmetic composite of high level factors of social, economic and infrastructural indicators, collected at both the national and sub-national levels. The performance evaluation of the proposed models underlines their statistical robustness and emphasizes an empirical resemblance between the geographic patterns of potential drought impacts and previous results presented in the literature. Our findings support the idea that drought risk is driven by an exponential growth of regional exposure, while hazard and vulnerability exhibit a weaker relationship with the geographic distribution of risk values. Drought risk is lower for remote regions, such as tundras and tropical forests, and higher for populated areas and regions extensively exploited for crop production and livestock farming, such as South-Central Asia, Southeast of South America, Central Europe and Southeast of the United States. As climate change projections foresee an increase of drought frequency and intensity for these regions, then there is an aggravated risk for global food security and potential for civil conflict in the medium- to long-term. Since most agricultural regions show high infrastructural vulnerability to drought, then regional adaptation to climate change may begin through implementing and fostering the widespread use of irrigation and rainwater harvesting systems. In this context, reduction in drought risk may also benefit from diversifying regional economies on different sectors of activity and reducing the dependence of their GDP on agriculture.  相似文献   

12.
This paper addresses two fundamental questions on climate change and variability: to what extent has climate changed and/or varied over years in two districts of different agro-ecological regions or zones and how do any changes differ between the zones or districts? Given the rural-rural migration pattern observed between the districts, understanding climate change risk to rural livelihoods cannot be overemphasised. To assess change and variability, we utilise rainfall data-records over a 36-year period from 1980 to 2016. Results show that there are wide variations and differences within and between the districts. Evidence suggests a general reduction in both annual rainfall and wet days. There is also ground to suggest that the rainy season duration is becoming shorter, given that rainfall onset is increasingly starting late, while cessation is increasingly coming early. Dry spells frequency and duration trends within rainy season show an increase over the period examined. We conclude that local climate in both areas has changed over the period investigated. However, while Livingstone seems to have experienced more droughts and unreliable rainfall, Kabwe experienced a bigger change in both rainfall and rainy season duration. We further conclude that migrants into Kabwe and other inhabitants are not any safer from climate change risk.  相似文献   

13.
We present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically defined climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability are used to identify key vulnerability indicators. We find that 11 key indicators exhibit a strong relationship with decadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgement data, collected through a focus group exercise. The data are used to provide a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacity—one element of vulnerability—is associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy.  相似文献   

14.
Recent increases in the accuracy of climate models have enhanced the possibilities for analyzing the impacts of climate change on society. This paper explores how the local, economic impacts of climate change can be modeled for a specific eco-region, the Western Sahel. The people in the Sahel are highly dependent on their natural resource base, and these resources are highly vulnerable to climate change, in particular to changes in rainfall. Climate models project substantial changes in rainfall in the Sahel in the coming 50 years, with most models predicting a reduction in rainfall. To connect climate change to changes in ecosystem productivity and local income, we construct an ecological–economic model that incorporates rangeland dynamics, grazing and livestock prices. The model shows that decreased rainfall in the Sahel will considerably reduce local incomes, in particular if combined with increases in rainfall variability. Adaptation to these climate change projections is possible if reductions in rainfall are followed by destocking to reach efficient grazing levels. However, while such a strategy is optimal from the perspective of society, the stocking rate is determined by individual pastoralists that face few incentives to destock.  相似文献   

15.
Rainfall over West Africa shows strong interannual variability related to changes in Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Nevertheless, this relationship seem to be non-stationary. A particular turning point is the decade of the 1970s, which witnessed a number of changes in the climatic system, including the climate shift of the late 1970s. The first aim of this study is to explore the change in the interannual variability of West African rainfall after this shift. The analysis indicates that the dipolar features of the rainfall variability over this region, related to changes in the Atlantic SST, disappear after this period. Also, the Pacific SST variability has a higher correlation with Guinean rainfall in the recent period. The results suggest that the current relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific El Ni?o phenomena is the principal responsible for these changes. A fundamental goal of climate research is the development of models simulating a realistic current climate. For this reason, the second aim of this work is to test the performance of Atmospheric General Circulation models in simulating rainfall variability over West Africa. The models have been run with observed SSTs for the common period 1957?C1998 as part of an intercomparison exercise. The results show that the models are able to reproduce Guinean interannual variability, which is strongly related to SST variability in the Equatorial Atlantic. Nevertheless, problems in the simulation of the Sahelian interannual variability appear: not all models are able to reproduce the observed negative link between rainfall over the Sahel and El Ni?o-like anomalies in the Pacific, neither the positive correlation between Mediterranean SSTs and Sahelian rainfall.  相似文献   

16.
Interest in nature-based approaches for climate change adaptation in cities is growing. Whilst there is a growing field of scholarship in a European and North America setting, research on the policy and governance of urban greenspace for climate adaptation in subtropical Asia is limited. Given the different development patterns, environmental characteristics and governance arrangements in subtropical cities, plus their comparatively large population and high climate risk, this is a significant knowledge gap. In response, this paper evaluates competences – skill sets, capabilities, and supporting policy and legislation – to enact adaptation through greenspace across different governance contexts; and assesses how international rhetoric on nature-based adaptation becomes localised to subtropical Asian city settings. We conduct interviews with stakeholders, plus review of relevant policy and city-specific research, for three cities with different governance and development contexts: Hanoi (Vietnam); Taipei (Taiwan); and Fukuoka (Japan). Across all three cases, we find that institutional structures and processes for connecting different remits and knowledge systems are a bigger challenge than a lack of appropriate policy or individuals with the required technical knowledge. However, opportunities for civil society participation and consideration of justice issues vary between the cities according to the socio-political context. These findings illustrate the value of individuals and organisations able to work across institutional boundaries in linking greenspace and adaptation agendas for subtropical Asian cities; and the importance of competence in collaboration with developers and civil society so that the rapid development or regeneration seen in subtropical Asian contexts does not tend towards green climate gentrification. More broadly, our findings show that the diverse nature of subtropical Asian cities means the role of greenspace in climate adaptation is likely to be context-specific, and thus that caution must be exercised against uncritically importing best practices from exemplar cases elsewhere.  相似文献   

17.
Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important research focus of the CLIVAR Program and has been paid more attention. Over recent years, a lot of studies in relation to interdecadal climate variations have been also completed by Chinese scientists. This paper presents an overview of some advances in the study of decadal/interdecadal variations of the ocean temperature and its climate impacts, which includes interdecadal climate variability in China, the interdecadal modes of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific, and in particular, the impacts of interdecadal SST variations on the Asian monsoon rainfall. As summarized in this paper, some results have been achieved by using climate diagnostic studies of historical climatic datasets. Two fundamental interdecadal SST variability modes (7– 10-years mode and 25–35-years mode) have been identified over the North Pacific associated with different anomalous patterns of atmospheric circulation. The southern Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) shows a major feature of interdecadal variation, with a positive (negative) phase favoring a weakened (enhanced) Asian summer monsoon in the following summer. It is also found that the China monsoon rainfall exhibits interdecadal variations with more wet (dry) monsoon years in the Yangtze River (South China and North China) before 1976, but vice versa after 1976. The weakened relationship between the Indian summer rainfall and ENSO is a feature of interdecadal variations, suggesting an important role of the interdecadal variation of the SIOD in the climate over the south Asia and southeast Asia. In addition, evidence indicates that the climate shift in the 1960s may be related to the anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). Overall, the present research has improved our understanding of the decadal/interdecadal variations of SST and their impacts on the Asian monsoon rainfall. However, the research also highlights a number of problems for future research, in particular the mechanisms responsible for the monsoon long-term predictability, which is a great challenge in climate research.  相似文献   

18.
A policy network analysis using a questionnaire survey was conducted to identify the main climate policy actors in South Korea and examine how they form alliances and come into conflict over four major issues. Generally, it was found that governmental organizations are the main actors in the South Korean climate policy arena and that they mediate between the business and civil sectors. In particular, key organizations in each sector play a leading role in the formation and maintenance of at least two distinct alliance networks: growth and environmental. In particular, the growth network has been stronger and more intense than the environmental network, with the exception of nuclear power policy. The crucial drivers of proactive policy discourse in South Korea have been scientific discourse and a consensus on the advent of anthropogenic climate change by the international scientific community, the international climate change negotiations and the pressure to commit to GHG emissions reduction, and low-carbon green growth strategy.

Policy relevance

The positions of South Korean governmental organizations (as well as other civil society organizations) on the four major issues of climate policy have not been aligned. The government has not acted as a unified body; instead it is an aggregated body composed of organizations with competing interests. If policy actors with different interests share the recognition of the state of the country within global society and understand international pressure as well as the urgency of combating climate change, then a common policy goal can be achieved. It is essential for the government to exert proactive leadership for climate policies in mediating the growth and environmental networks. It is important to boost environmental networks in order to overcome the alliance of growth networks. A more proactive response for combating climate change would establish open policy-making processes for environmental network actors and provide economic opportunities for climate actions.  相似文献   

19.
It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre’s climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is under-estimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.  相似文献   

20.
气候变化背景下,频发的暴雨事件造成城市内涝、人员伤亡和财产损失,已经成为全社会广泛关注的焦点问题之一。为了诊断中国暴雨的时空变化及其与不同自然因子的关联性,采用1961—2015年中国659个降水站点数据,采用线性趋势、EOF分析等多种统计方法诊断了中国暴雨时空变化特征,结果表明,中国暴雨雨量、雨日和雨强在1961—2015年以胡焕庸线为界呈现出东南高-西北低的气候态空间分布格局;线性趋势分析表明1961—2015年中国暴雨雨量和雨日从东南沿海向西北内陆呈明显“增-减-增”的空间分布格局,且呈增长趋势的站点占主导,分别高达80.88%和79.81%;从西北内陆到东南沿海的年代剖面分析表明中国暴雨雨量和雨日随着年代推移在迅速增长;对低通滤波后的中国暴雨进行EOF分析表明中国暴雨雨量和雨日的增长东南沿海快,内陆地区慢。根据IPCC等已有研究中筛选出对中国地区有影响的28个气候因子,并将其与659个站点的暴雨进行相关分析,结果表明不同气候因子与不同区域暴雨呈现出错综复杂的相关性特征,其中与暴雨雨量呈现以正相关和负相关为主的气候因子分别为15和13个,全局相关因子包含AAO(Antarctic Oscillation)、Pacific Warmpool,而其它气候因子在七大分区中与暴雨的关联性各有突出,表现出明显的空间异质性。   相似文献   

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