共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 250 毫秒
1.
美国长期生态学研究网络的战略规划——走向综合科学的未来 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
从2004年11月起至今,美国长期生态学研究网络在美国国家科学基金会的资助下,为未来(几)十年的综合和网络层面研究进行了战略规划.规划的最终目标是形成一个新的长期生态学研究(LTER)网络层面科学计划,并通过1个科学课题组、7个网络科学工作组和一系列研讨会来进行.在制定和完善科学计划的过程中,规划行动获得了LTER网络层面科学的跨学科问题、概念框架、基本科学问题、社会与环境综合科学动议、网络计算机基础设施的战略规划、教育与宣传战略规划等重大科学产出.规划的意义在于它告诉了怎样走向LTER的未来--网络层面综合科学,因而有利于LTER及长期生态研究的发展,并可为CERN等其他长期生态学研究网络的规划与发展提供启示. 相似文献
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3.
方瑞明 《华东地质学院学报》2007,30(4):374-377
提出了一种基于自组织特征映射(SOFM)的聚类分析和支持向量回归(SVR)的电力系统短期负荷预测方法。该方法首先利用自组织特征映射网络,通过无监督学习策略,对训练样本集进行聚类分析,将其分为若干相似子类;再针对每一子类构造一个支持向量回归(SVR)模型,以对应子类的样本集训练SVR模型。由于聚类后的每一子类的样本具有相似性,同时子类样本数较少,因此,该方法能够缩短训练时间,提高预测精度。基于某电网提供的历史负荷数据进行的不同方法对比实验说明了该方法的有效性。 相似文献
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在分析子牙河水系海河流域降雨径流的基础上,应用回归统计法,通过优选因子进行预报。西台峪站位于邢台临城县境内,属半干旱、半湿润山丘区,年降水主要集中在6—9月,其河流特性为暴涨暴落。通过优选因子建立预报方程。因子的选取我们从物理成因和数理统计等各方面来考察各个影响因素,挑选出具有明确物理意义的预报因子,并把其应用到实际工作中去。探讨了中长期预报在半干旱、半湿润地区的适用性,对计算成果分析遇到的问题提出了一些解决方法。 相似文献
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基于时间序列多重信息利用的扩维原理和灰色系统理论的关联分析思想,提出一种应用于水文中长期预报的方法.它的特点是直接从径流序列的扩维相型关联分析中,寻求径流情势变化规律,较适合于缺乏输入因子资料或选择影响因子有困难条件下的水文中长期预报.利用海河、黄河和长江流域若干水文站的实测资料序列对该方法做了初步验证. 相似文献
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The disastrous flood of 1998 was a result of excessiverainfall all over the catchment areas of the major rivers of Bangladesh. Dhaka City, which is surroundedby rivers on all sides, was seriously affected despite the completion of Phase I of the Dhaka IntegratedFlood Protection Project (DIFPP). Water entered into the protected part of the city throughhydraulic leakage such as buried sewerage pipes, breached and incomplete floodwalls, ungated culverts andinoperative regulators. The drainage network and retention ponds of the city were found to be in poorconditions and capacities of the pumping stations were found inadequate. There was a serious lack of coordinationbetween the agencies responsible for flood protection and drainage of the city. These issues must beaddressed to achieve long-term flood mitigation. In addition, feedback from both the experts andgeneral public indicated that completion of Phase II of DIFPP was essential to bring the eastern part ofthe city under flood protection. Other structural measures suggested in this paper include installing andmaintaining adequate drainage and pumping capacity and timely operation of regulators. This studyalso suggests a set of non-structural measures for flood mitigation that include protectingthe retention ponds, raising public awareness on maintaining the city drains, introducing landzoning and flood proofing in the eastern part of Dhaka, and stream lining institutional bottlenecks. 相似文献
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在高分辨率层序地层学理论的指导下,以中期旋回的洪泛面为基准,根据不同时期河道砂体顶面的高程差异划分地层单元,可以实现河流相地层的等时划分与对比。以渤海Q油田北区明化镇组下段N2m2油组为例,基于砂体发育频率和高程差异构建了一套河流相地层等时划分方法：首先对地震相、测井相、砂岩发育特征等进行综合分析,识别后期河道的下切位置,"回填"被侵蚀破坏的部分,恢复中期旋回末期的原始洪泛泥岩界面,将其作为等时地层划分的基准;然后根据砂体发育的频率特征以及砂体顶面与中期旋回洪泛面的高程关系,构建等时界面识别曲线,刻画泥岩的集中发育位置,识别短期或超短期旋回的等时界面,实现地层的等时划分。实例分析表明,该方法能够有效识别不同地层单元之间的界面位置,将N2m2油组划分为6个等时单元,不同时期河道的沉积特征符合中期基准面上升半旋回内的河道沉积演化规律。 相似文献
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正Objective In order to reduce the interfering noise from the earth surface,scientists have carried out multi-geophysical borehole observations and the related study.This study aims at improving signal-to-noise ratio obtained from the 相似文献
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天然气主干网长期沉降监测信息管理系统构想 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
本文从管理和技术双重角度出发，通过对上海市地面沉降情况以及其对天然气主干网影响的分析，提出利用先进的信息管理系统（IS）建立上海市天然气主干网长期沉降监测管理信息系统的构想，籍此系统对工程进行管理，期愿对上海天然气主干网的科学化管理有所帮助。 相似文献
10.
矿区水文地质研究进展及中长期发展方向 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
矿区水资源保护和矿山防治水这两个互相矛盾又紧密联系的问题给传统的矿山水文地质学带来了更多的挑战和机遇,迫切需要新理论、新技术的发展。为了更好的实现矿区未来地下水资源的开采、利用与保护以及采煤安全和区域水资源可持续利用,本文选择长治盆地为重点研究区,从采动引起的覆岩移动入手,在资料分析的基础上,采用相似材料模拟、综合物探、野外监测、现场注(压)水试验的方法,运用水文地质学原理研究了采煤引起含水层结构变异厚度及其渗透性变化特征;在此基础上,以长治盆地集中开采区水文地质条件和野外监测数据为基础,建立了区域地下水流场三维动态模拟试验台,为研究含水层结构变异后的地下水循环机理和水资源重新分布提供技术支撑;本文同时指出了我国矿山水文地质研究目前存在的问题和面临的挑战,分析了矿山水文地质学科的发展趋势,展望了未来相关分支学科和关键核心技术的发展方向与前景。 相似文献
11.
The aim of this work is to quantitatively set up a simple hypothesis for occurrence of earthquakes conditioned by prior events, on the basis of a previously existing model and the use of recent instrumental observations. A simple procedure is presented in order to determine the conditional probability of pairs of events (foreshock-mainshock, mainshock-aftershock) with short time and space separation. The first event of a pair should not be an aftershock, i.e., it must not be related to a stronger previous event. The Italian earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) (1975–1995, M 3.4), the earthquake catalog of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (1983–1994, M 3.0) and that of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) (1982–1994, M 3.8) were analyzed. The number of observed pairs depends on several parameters: the size of the space-time quiescence volume defining nonaftershocks, the inter event time, the minimum magnitude of the two events, and the spatial dimension of the alarm volume after the first event. The Akaike information criterion has been adopted to assess the optimum set of space-time parameters used in the definition of the pairs, assuming that the occurrence rate of subsequent events may be modeled by two Poisson processes with different rates: the higher rate refers to the space-time volume defined by the alarms and the lower one simulates earthquakes that occur in the nonalarm space-time volume. On the basis of the tests carried out on the seismic catalog of Italy, the occurrence rate of M 3.8 earthquakes followed by a M 3.8 mainshock within 10 km and 10 days (validity) is 0.459. We have observed, for all three catalogs, that the occurrence rate density for the second event of a couple (mainshock or aftershock) of magnitude M2 subsequent to a nonaftershock of magnitude M1 in the time range T can be modeled by the following relationship: (T, M2) = 10a + b(M1 - M2) with b varying from 0.74 (Japan) to 1.09 (Greece). The decrease of the occurrence rate in time for a mainshock after a foreshock or for large aftershocks after a mainshock, for all three databases, obeys the Omori's law with p changing from 0.94 (Italy) to 2.0 (Greece). 相似文献
12.
钢铁工业是我国的支柱产业,对国内钢铁的长期需求进行科学预测,可以为我国经济发展的战略发展进行科学决策提供重要依据。由于我国铁矿资源不能满足国民经济发展需求,对钢铁需求的预测,不仅对我国钢铁工业布局和全球产业链配置具有重要参考价值,更对我国企业海外矿山投资具有重要指导意义。本文通过模型组合预测了"十二五"期间我国对钢的需求及其供需平衡,抛砖以引业内外人士高水平长期预测之玉。 相似文献
13.
冻融作用是冰缘环境的一个重要地貌过程, 其活动性直接反映气候变化, 成为冰冻圈过程研究的重要内容. 依据天山乌鲁木齐河源1991-2011年石环长期定位观测资料, 对天山大陆性冰缘环境中石环发育特点和冻融作用机制进行深入探讨.结果表明: 乌鲁木齐河源区石环冻胀作用在地表20 cm内最强, 直径为3 cm的定位桩受到的冻胀作用最小, 石环从中心向边缘冻胀作用变弱; 对比石环发育和无石环的地表, 前者冻融作用更强; 海拔对冻胀作用有明显影响, 在布设观测点的海拔3 500~4 000 m范围内, 随海拔上升, 冻胀作用增强, 到海拔3 900 m达到最大, 显示与当地现代冰川平衡线高度的吻合性. 相关性分析表明, 气候因素中夏季水热条件对石环发育作用较大, 其中夏季降水对冻胀作用的影响显著, 一年中地温在0℃波动的天数也是重要的影响因素; 石环活动层定位观测揭示出冰缘地貌对区域气候变化反应敏感, 对近20 a温度升高有积极响应. 相似文献
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1 科学术语的意义及术语"活化石" 众所周知,术语问题是科学研究中不可回避的基本问题.笔者认为,科学术语属于学科自身发展过程中各个历史阶段的研究成果,是构成人类科学体系的知识内容,是丰富人类语言文化的重要来源. 相似文献
15.
安塞油田长6油层组长期注水后储层变化特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在注水开发模拟实验及现场测试资料的基础上,以压汞实验、物性测试等方法对模拟实验前后岩芯进行分析,研究了安塞油田长6油层组长期注水开发后储层特征变化规律及成因。结果表明,随着注水量增加,渗透率总体明显降低,渗透率平均变化4.72%;水驱后孔隙度平均增加0.15%,而孔隙组合类型未发生明显变化;退汞效率平均降低4.39%;喉道中值半径变小但分布类型没变化;储层润湿性整体向亲水方向发展。低渗透储层特征发生变化的机理主要是：储层中颗粒和填隙物在注入水的冲刷作用下发生溶解、破碎和迁移,一部分被水冲出,一部分滞留在细喉道处形成堵塞,导致孔喉连通性变差,储层非均质性增强;注入水冲刷作用使储层岩石表面及孔喉表面性质发生变化,进而引起储层润湿性发生变化。 相似文献
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为了研究南极普里兹湾岩石圈深部应力场及其动力学,采用S波分裂旋转相关法,对中国第31次南极科学考察成功回收的3个站位海底地震仪数据(5个远震记录)进行了反演,获得了普里兹湾洋陆过渡带岩石圈各向异性特征.结果表明,台站所在区域各向异性显著,在较小的范围内存在明显的空间差异,快S波偏振方向变化范围是N40°E ~ N60°E,快慢波时间延迟变化范围为0.2~1.3 s.洋盆的各向异性主要取决于海底扩张地幔流作用,大陆及附近的各向异性主要受上地幔顶部残留构造的影响,而中间过渡带各向异性层厚度较小集中在地壳内,它可能受海底扩张地幔流和残留构造共同作用. 相似文献
17.
Sabine Kraushaar Gregor Ollesch Christian Siebert Hans‐Joerg Vogel Markus Fuchs 《Geoarchaeology》2015,30(4):369-378
Roman cisterns served as rainwater storage devices for centuries and are densely distributed in parts of northern Jordan. A major earthquake hit the region ca. A.D. 750 and in a short time many settlements were abandoned. As a consequence, most cisterns were not maintained, and they filled with sediments that today provide a postabandonment depositional record. In two field surveys, we mapped the locations of more than 100 cisterns in the Wadi Al‐Arab basin and selected two for detailed stratigraphic analysis that included 14C and optically stimulated luminescence dating. Catchment basin area for each cistern was determined by differential GPS. Both cisterns filled with sediments after the great earthquake and consequent abandonment of the region. Calculated sediment volumes are translated to long‐term average sediment export rates of 2.6–6.6 t ha−1a−1, which are comparable to erosion and sediment yield rates from other studies within the Mediterranean region. Our pilot study suggests that this approach can be applied elsewhere to calculate long‐term sediment export rates on hill slopes containing relict cisterns. 相似文献
18.
中国东部土壤温度、湿度变化的长期趋势及其与气候背景的联系 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
利用1971-2000年中国722站逐月的土壤温度资料和1981-1998年178站逐旬的土壤湿度观测资料,分析了中国东部土壤温度、湿度变化的长期趋势及其与气温、降水变化的关系.结果表明:①我国东部土壤温度的变化在年际一年代际时间尺度上存在明显的区域性差异,其中东北地区表现为持续上升型,而西北东部一华北、江淮和西南一华南地区均为先降后升型;②1970-2000年代,土壤温度的变化在东北以及西北东部一华北地区有显著的上升趋势,而在江淮和西南一华南地区,总体而言变化趋势不显著.此外,1980-1990年代,各区域土壤湿度的变化趋势均不显著;③在年际一年代际尺度上,各区域土壤温度和气温的变化具有显著的正相关关系,而土壤湿度与土壤温度的变化普遍呈负相关关系,其中尤以西北东部-华北地区最为显著.而在较长的时间尺度上,土壤湿度与降水的变化仍然存在较好的正相关关系. 相似文献
19.
Classical 3D/4D variation fusion is based on the theory that error follows Gaussian distribution. When using minimization iteration, the gradient of objective function is involved, and the solution of which requires the continuity of data. This paper adopted the extended classical 3D/4D variation fusion method, and explicitly applied the prior knowledge, which was based on L1-norm, as regularization constraint to the classical variation fusion method. Original data was firstly projected into the wavelet domain during the implementation process, and new fusion model was adopted for data fusion in wavelet space, then inverse wavelet transform was used to project the result to the observation space. Ideal experiment was carried out by using linear advection-diffusion equation as four-dimensional prediction model, which made a hypothesis of the discontinuity with the data between background and observation, and that meant the derivatives between left and right were not equal on some points. The result of the experiment showed that the method adopted here was practicable. A further research was also done for multi-source precipitation fusion. Firstly, CMORPH inversion precipitation data were corrected through PDF (Probability Density Function, PDF) matching method based on GAMMA fitting function. Then corrected data was fused with the observation one. By comparison with the reference field, the result showed that this method can keep some outliers better, which might represent certain weather phenomenon. The L1-norm regularization variation fusion in this paper provided a possible way to deal with discrete data, especially for jump point. 相似文献
20.
Clarisse Alboin Jérôme Jaffré Patrick Joly Jean E. Roberts Christophe Serres 《Computational Geosciences》2002,6(3-4):523-543
Contaminant transport in a fractured porous medium can be modeled, under appropriate conditions, with a double porosity model. Such a model consists of a parabolic equation with a coupling term describing contaminant exchange between the fractures, which have high permeability, and the matrix block, which has low permeability. A locally conservative method based on mixed finite elements is used to solve the parabolic problem, and the calculation of the coupling term, which involves the solution of diffusion equations in the matrix blocks, is based on an analytic expression. Numerical experiments show that this semi-analytic method for the coupling term is accurate and faster than several other methods but at a small expense of computer memory. 相似文献