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1.
Historically, the Moscow region regularly experienced rather weak but quite perceptible seismic vibrations produced by intermediate-depth earthquakes of the Vrancea zone (Romania), located at a distance of 1400 km from Moscow. The coincidence of a number of unique factors such as a slowly varying focal depth, predominant source mechanisms, weak attenuation of seismic radiation in the north-northeast direction provide favorable conditions for application of the empirical Green’s function method. Using the digital seismogram of the Vrancea Mw-5.8 earthquake recorded at the Moscow seismic station, we simulated synthetic seismograms of a scenario (expected maximum) earthquake with Mw = 8.0, by application of the empirical Green’s function method adjusted for the given conditions. The calculation procedure was verified using analog records of strong earthquakes available at the Moscow seismic station. Digital records of the Obninsk seismic station included in the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) system were used for additional control. Here, the scenario earthquake was modeled using the data on a much stronger earthquake of 1990 (MW = 6.9). It is shown that, despite a certain scatter (quite adequately assessed in the scope of the method), the ultimate estimates of expected seismic impacts are quite reliable and can be recommended for practical use.  相似文献   

2.
According to the normative maps of the General Seismic Zoning in the Russian Federation, OSR-97, the Moscow metropolitan area is situated within the 5 point seismic zone. Of highest hazard priority for tall buildings in Moscow are the low-frequency vibrations proceeding from the deep sources of strong earthquakes that occur in the East Carpathians (the Vrancea zone, Romania) at a distance of approximately 1350 km from Moscow. Accelerations of the ground vibrations in Moscow are found from the analysis of seismic signals produced by Mw = 5.0 to Mw = 7.4 Vrancea earthquakes and recorded at the Moskva seismic station. Extrapolation of the parameters of the weak and moderate earthquakes towards stronger seismic events provides an estimate for the maximum expected horizontal accelerations of Ahor = 2.3 cm/s2 in case of the Mw = 8.0 Vrancea earthquake. The synthetic accelerogram of the maximum possible effect on the benchmark soils of Moscow is calculated. The displacements of the ground are multidimensional and not necessarily oriented strictly towards the seismic source. These inferences suggest that the MSK-64 macroseismic scale be corrected and the Construction Norms and Regulations, SNIP II-7-81*, be updated with regard to the hazard assessment of low-frequency seismic effects of 5 point and weaker seismic events including those caused by distant earthquakes.  相似文献   

3.
Based on the example of the Vrancea zone of concentrated seismicity, it is shown how the stress-strain state of the medium responds to a disturbance of the geomagnetic field. Geomagnetic conditions are examined in relation to earthquakes in the Vrancea zone in the period 1988–1996. It is established that the seismic energy release in the Vrancea zone is associated with differences (“gradients”) in the H component of the geomagnetic field. Such a gradient preceding earthquakes is shown to be the midnight polar substorm and the degree of its mid-latitude effect. The time interval from the maximum of the substorm development to a shock (τ, h) is directly related to the focal depth. The seismic characteristics K en and h (km) are demonstrated to be related to morphological features of the substorm development, namely, its duration T (min), intensity, and background. Differences in the duration of polar substorms before crustal (shallow) and deep earthquakes are revealed. Morphological features of the spectrum of geomagnetic variations preceding the seismic energy release are established.  相似文献   

4.
This paper aims at investigating possible regional attenuation patterns in the case of Vrancea(Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes.Almost 500 pairs of horizontal components recorded during 13 intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes are employed in order to evaluate the regional attenuation patterns.The recordings are grouped according to the azimuth with regard to the Vrancea seismic source and subsequently,Q models are computed for each azimuthal zone assuming similar geometrical spreading.Moreover,the local soil amplification which was disregarded in a previous analysis performed for Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes is now clearly evaluated.The results show minor differences between the four regions situated in front of the Carpathian Mountains and considerable differences in attenuation of seismic waves between the forearc and backarc regions(with regard to the Carpathian Mountains).Consequently,an average Q model of the type Q(f) = 115×f~(1.25) is obtained for the four forearc regions,while a separate Q model of the type Q(f) = 70×f~(0.90) is computed for the backarc region.These results highlight the need to evaluate the seismic hazard of Romania by using ground motion models which take into account the different attenuation between the forearc/backarc regions.  相似文献   

5.
Vrancea major intermediate-depth earthquakes produced extreme damage in Bucharest city, located at about 165 km epicenter distance. Our purpose is to investigate the influence of local geological conditions upon the seismic motion in Bucharest in case of large (M>7) Vrancea earthquakes. Two input data sets are used: (a) geological, geotechnical and geophysical information, including in situ measurements, and (b) acceleration recordings of Vrancea earthquakes. Local response evaluation based on first dataset is confirmed by the spectral analysis of the earthquake records. Two main features are outlined: non-stationarity of ground motion dynamic amplification from one event to other and inadequacy of limiting the investigation depth to uppermost 30 m to evaluate ground dynamic characteristics. Consequently (1) we cannot extrapolate the ground motion response determined for moderate and small earthquakes to anticipate the effects of the large Vrancea shocks and (2) the local response is controlled by the entire package of Quaternary deposits which are significantly deeper than 30 m depth beneath Bucharest Area.  相似文献   

6.
This research focuses on the evaluation of soil conditions for seismic stations in southern and eastern Romania, their influence on stochastic finite-fault simulations, and the impact of using them on the seismic hazard assessment. First, the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSR) are evaluated using ground motions recorded in 32 seismic stations during small magnitude (M W  ≤ 6.0) Vrancea seismic events. Most of the seismic stations situated in the southern part of Romania exhibit multiple HVSR peaks over a broad period range. However, only the seismic stations in the eastern-most part of Romania have clear short-period predominant periods. Subsequently, stochastic finite-fault simulations are performed in order to evaluate the influence of the soil conditions on the ground motion amplitudes. The analyses show that the earthquake magnitude has a larger influence on the computed ground motion amplitudes for the short- and medium-period range, while the longer-period spectral ordinates tend to be influenced more by the soil conditions. Next, the impact of the previously evaluated soil conditions on the seismic hazard results for Romania is also investigated. The results reveal a significant impact of the soil conditions on the seismic hazard levels, especially for the sites characterized by long-period amplifications (sites situated mostly in southern Romania), and a less significant influence in the case of sites which have clear short predominant periods.  相似文献   

7.
The regularities in the radiation and propagation of seismic waves within the Baikal Rift Zone in Buryatia are studied to estimate the ground motion parameters from the probable future strong earthquakes. The regional parameters of seismic radiation and propagation are estimated by the stochastic simulation (which provides the closest agreement between the calculations and observations) of the acceleration time histories of the earthquakes recorded by the Ulan-Ude seismic station. The acceleration time histories of the strongest earthquakes (M W ~ 3.4–4.8) that occurred in 2006–2011 at the epicentral distances of ~96–125 km and had source depths of ~8–12 km have been modeled. The calculations are conducted with estimates of the Q-factor which were previously obtained for the region. The frequency-dependent attenuation and geometrical spreading are estimated from the data on the deep structure of the crust and upper mantle (velocity sections) in the Ulan-Ude region, and the parameters determining the wave forms and duration of acceleration time histories are found by fitting. These parameters fairly well describe all the considered earthquakes. The Ulan-Ude station can be considered as the reference bedrock station with minimum local effects. The obtained estimates for the parameters of seismic radiation and propagation can be used for forecasting the ground motion from the future strong earthquakes and for constructing the seismic zoning maps for Buryatia.  相似文献   

8.
The paper presents results of studying the attenuation of ground accelerations from earthquakes of the Vrancea with magnitudes less that 6.0 at distance greater than 300 km in a narrow sector located northeast of the focal region, within the limits of which are located acting and planned nuclear power plants (NNPs). Attenuation of peak ground accelerations in individual sections along the Vrancea–IRIS OBN station path is approximated by individual functions. It is shown that for a rough estimation of the seismic effect of earthquakes from the Vrancea zone it is acceptable to use the empirical relationship obtained by F.F. Aptikaev. For a more accurate estimate, it needs to be modified by adding a constant, whose value depends on the specific conditions of the NPP sites. It is shown that the results of data analysis on moderate earthquakes can be extrapolated to an earthquake with the maximum possible magnitude for the Vrancea zone and used to estimate the maximum seismic effects at the sites of operating and planned NPPs.  相似文献   

9.
—?The mapping of the seismic ground motion in Bucharest, due to the strong Vrancea earthquakes, is carried out using a complex hybrid waveform modeling method that allows easy parametric tests. Starting from the actually available strong motion database, we can make realistic predictions for the possible ground motion. The basic information necessary for the modeling consists of: (a) The representative mechanisms for the strong subcrustal events, (b) the average regional structural model, and (c) the local structure for Bucharest. Two scenario earthquakes are considered and the source influence on the local response is analyzed in order to define generally valid ground motion parameters, to be used in the seismic hazard estimations. The source has its own (detectable) contribution on the ground motion and its effects on the local response in Bucharest are quite stable on the transversal component (T), while the radial (R) and vertical (V) components are sensitive to the scenario earthquake. Although the strongest local effects affect the T component, both observed and synthetic, a complete determination of the seismic input for the built environment requires the knowledge of all three components of motion (R, V, T). The damage observed in Bucharest for the March 4, 1977 Vrancea event, the strongest earthquake to strike the city in modern times, is in agreement with the synthetic signals and local response.  相似文献   

10.
On October 27, 2004, a moderate size earthquake occurred in the Vrancea seismogenic region (Romania). The Vrancea seismic zone is an area of concentrated seismicity at intermediate depths beneath the bending area of the southeastern Carpathians. The 2004 M w?=?6 Vrancea subcrustal earthquake is the largest seismic event recorded in Romania since the 1990 earthquakes. With a maximum macroseismic intensity of VII Medvedev–Sponheuer–Kárník (MSK-64) scale, the seismic event was felt to a distance of 600 km from the epicentre. This earthquake caused no serious damage and human injuries. The main purpose of this paper is to present the macroseismic map of the earthquake based on the MSK-64 intensity scale. After the evaluation of the macroseismic effects of this earthquake, an intensity dataset has been obtained for 475 sites in the Romanian territory. Also, the maximum horizontal accelerations recorded in the area by the K2 network are compared to the intensity values.  相似文献   

11.
The Menyuan area is an important transportation hub in the Hexi Corridor. The Menyuan MS6.9 earthquake that occurred on January 8, 2022 had a major impact on the local infrastructure and transportation of this region. Due to the high possibility of similar strong earthquakes occurring in this area in the future, preliminary assessment of the seismic intensity characteristics of destructive earthquakes in this region is essential for effective disaster control. This paper uses the empirical Green′s function (EGF) method as a numerical simulation tool to predict the ground motion intensity of Datong Autonomous County under the action of the scenario earthquake (MS7.5). Seismic records of aftershocks of the 2016 Menyuan MS6.4 earthquake were used as Green’s functions for this simulation. The uncertainties associated with various source parameters were considered, and 36 possible earthquake scenarios were simulated to obtain 72 sets of horizontal ground motions in Datong County. The obtained peak ground acceleration (PGA) vs. time histories of the horizontal ground motion were screened using the attenuation relationships provided by the fifth-edition of China's Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map and the NGA-West2 dataset. Ultimately, 32 possible acceleration-time histories were selected for further analysis. The screened PGA values ranged from 78.8 to 153 cm/s2. The uncertainty associated with the initial rupture point was found to greatly affect the results of the earthquake simulation. The average acceleration spectrum of the selected acceleration-time history exceeded the expected spectrum of a intermediate earthquake, which means that buildings in Datong County might sustain some damage should the scenario earthquake occur. This research can provide reliable ground motion input for urban earthquake damage simulation and seismic design in Datong County. Growing the dataset of small earthquakes recorded in this region will facilitate the large-scale simulation of ground motions under different earthquake scenarios.  相似文献   

12.
Recent studies have shown that the vertical component of ground motion can be quite destructive on a variety of structural systems. Development of response spectrum for design of buildings subjected to vertical component of earthquake needs ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The existing GMPEs for northern Iranian plateau are proposed for the horizontal component of earthquake, and there is not any specified GMPE for the vertical component of earthquake in this region. Determination of GMPEs is mostly based on regression analyses on earthquake parameters such as magnitude, site class, distance, and spectral amplitudes. In this study, 325 three-component records of 55 earthquakes with magnitude ranging from M w 4.1 to M w 7.3 are used for estimation on the regression coefficients. Records with distances less than 300 km are selected for analyses in the database. The regression analyses on earthquake parameters results in determination of GMPEs for peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for both horizontal and vertical components of the ground motion. The correlation between the models for vertical and horizontal GMPEs is studied in details. These models are later compared with some other available GMPEs. According to the result of this investigation, the proposed GMPEs are in agreement with the other relationships that were developed based on the local and regional data.  相似文献   

13.
The earthquake risk on Romania is one of the highest in Europe, and seismic hazard for almost half of the territory of Romania is determined by the Vrancea seismic region, which is situated beneath the southern Carpathian Arc. The region is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depth from 70 to 160 km. Besides the Vrancea area, several zones of shallow seismicity located within and outside the Romanian territory are considered as seismically dangerous. We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which implemented the “logic tree” approach, and which considered both the intermediate-depth and the shallow seismicity. Various available models of seismicity and ground-motion attenuation were used as the alternative variants. Seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities, peak ground acceleration, and response spectra was evaluated for various return periods. Sensitivity study was performed to analyze the impact of variation of input parameters on the hazard results. The uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by better understanding of parameters of the Vrancea source zone and the zones of crustal seismicity. Reduction of uncertainty associated with the ground-motion models is also very important issue for Romania.  相似文献   

14.
The regularities in the radiation and propagation of seismic waves in the regions of the North Caucasus are analyzed for estimating the ground motion parameters during the probable future strong earthquakes. Based on the records of the regional earthquakes with magnitudes MW ~ 3.9–5.6 within epicentral distances up to ~300 km obtained during the period of digital measurements at the Sochi and Anapa seismic stations, the Q-factors in the vicinities of these sites are estimated at ~55 f0.9 and ~90f0.7, respectively. The estimates were obtained by the coda normalization method developed by Aki, Rautian, and other authors. This method is based on the phenomenon of suppression of the earthquake (source) effects and local (site) responses by coda waves in the S-wave spectra. The obtained Q-factor estimates can be used for forecasting the ground shaking parameters for the future probable strong earthquakes in the North Caucasus in the vicinities of Sochi and Anapa.  相似文献   

15.
Near-field strong ground motions are useful for engineering seismology studies and seismic design, but dense observation networks of damaging earthquakes are still rare. In this study, based on the strong-motion data from the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake, the ground motion parameters in different spatial regions are systematically analyzed, and the contributions from different effects, like the hanging-wall effect, directivity effect, and attenuation effect are separated to the extent possible. Different engineering parameters from the observed ground motions are compared with the local design response spectra and a new attenuation relation of Western China. General results indicate that the high frequency ground motion, like the peak ground acceleration, on two sides of the fault plane is sensitive to the hanging-wall effect, whereas the low frequency ground motion, like the long period spectral acceleration, in the rupture propagation direction is affected by the directivity effect. Moreover, although the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake is not a large magnitude event, the spatial difference of ground motion is still obvious; thus, for a thrust faulting earthquake, in addition to the hanging effect, the directivity effect should also be considered.  相似文献   

16.
The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M0?=?1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and fmax?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.  相似文献   

17.
Seismic site amplification studies are generally used to assess the effects of local geology and soil conditions on ground motion characteristics. Although extensive reviews on site amplification phenomena associated with stratigraphic effects can be found in the specialized literature, it should be pointed out that most of the practical applications have been limited to the study of vertically propagating shear horizontal (SH) waves, i.e., to the 1-D soil amplification problem. Furthermore, little attention, if any, has been devoted to the study of the effects of non-vertically incident SH waves on surface accelerograms and on the earthquake response of structures. In the present work, the study is extended to an investigation of 2-D site amplification of non-vertically propagating seismic shear waves in multilayered viscoelastic soil deposits. Sensitivity analyses of the effects of non-vertical incidence on site amplification functions are performed based on site geotechnical data collected from post-seismic investigations of the 1980 El-Asnam earthquake. Analytical results are discussed in terms of seismic site transfer functions, spectral ratios, surface acceleration time histories, and structural response spectra for different values of wave incidence angle. Both bedrock and rock outcropping cases are examined.  相似文献   

18.
The paper presents recent achievements in evaluations of site-dependent seismic hazard in Romania and the capital city of Bucharest caused by the Vrancea focal zone (SE-Carpathians). The zone is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depths 60–170 km. The database that was used for the hazard evaluation includes parameters of seismicity, ground-motion source scaling and attenuation models (Fourier amplitude spectra), and site-dependent spectral amplification functions. Ground-motion characteristics were evaluated on the basis of several hundred records from more than 120 small magnitude (M 3.5–5) earthquakes occurred in 1996–2001 and a few tens of acceleration records obtained during four large (M 7.4, 7.2, 6.9 and 6.3) earthquakes. The data provide a basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak spectral acceleration and MSK intensity using Fourier amplitude spectra for various exceedance probabilities or average return periods. It has been shown that the influence of geological factors plays very important role in distribution of earthquake ground-motion parameters along the territory of Romania.  相似文献   

19.
Due to the randomness of earthquake wave magnitude and direction, and the uncertain direction of strong axis and weak axis in the construction of engineering structures, the effect of the direction of ground motion on a structure are studied herein. Ground motion records usually contain three vertical ground motion data, which are obtained by sensors arranged in accordance with the EW(East-West) direction, NS(South- North) direction and perpendicular to the surface(z) direction, referring to the construction standard of seismic stations. The seismic records in the EW and NS directions are converted to Cartesian coordinates in accordance with the rotation of θ = 0°-180°, and consequently, a countless group of new ground motion time histories are obtained. Then, the characteristics of the ground motion time history and response spectrum of each group were studied, resulting in the following observations:(1) the peak and phase of ground motion are changed with the rotation of direction θ, so that the direction θ of the maximum peak ground motion can be determined;(2) response spectrum values of each group of ground motions change along with the direction θ, and their peak, predominant period and declining curve are also different as the changes occur; then, the angle θ in the direction of the maximum peak value or the widest predominant period can be determined; and(3) the seismic response of structures with different directions of ground motion inputs has been analyzed under the same earthquake record, and the results show the difference. For some ground motion records, such as the Taft seismic wave, these differences are significant. Next, the Lushan middle school gymnasium structure was analyzed and the calculation was checked using the proposed method, where the internal force of the upper space truss varied from 25% to 28%. The research results presented herein can be used for reference in choosing the ground motion when checking the actual damage to structures following earthquakes and explaining the seismic damage. Meanwhile, it also provides a reference value for research into the most severe ground motion.  相似文献   

20.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was performed to determine two alternate magnitude-distance combinations for the 475 yr event, and the worst-case scenario event in Perth, Western Australia. Regional strong ground motion (SGM) time histories on rock sites are used to modify an eastern North America (ENA) seismic model to suit southwest Western Australian (SWWA) conditions. This model is then used to stochastically simulate a set of 475 yr design events and a set of worst-case scenario event for rock sites in the Perth metropolitan area (PMA). The simulated time histories are then used as input to typical soft soil sites in the PMA to estimate surface ground motions. The spectral accelerations of the ground motions on rock and soil sites are calculated and compared with the corresponding design spectra defined in current and previous Australian earthquake loading code. Discussions of the adequacy of the code spectra and the differences to ours, along with implications on structural response and damage are made.  相似文献   

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