共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
香港经常受到西北太平洋热带气旋的影响,对该地区热带气旋持续时间的研究有助于经济社会的稳定发展。按照气象和天文台警告信号,热带气旋分为不同的强度等级。建立热带气旋持续时间的Poisson-Weibull复合分布模型,相应获得持续时间重现值的求解公式,分别用于不同热带气旋分类下持续时间多年一遇重现值的计算中。基于1987-2016年袭港热带气旋数据的分析结果表明,Poisson-Weibull分布适用于不同的持续时间分类样本;强的热带气旋经常会伴随较长的持续时间,这将会对该地区造成更为严重的破坏,这可为防灾减灾提供参考。 相似文献
2.
利用气象常规资料、自动站资料、FY-4 可见光云图和 NCEP/NCAR 1毅伊1毅再分析资料,对 2018 年 14 号台风“摩羯”残涡经渤海增强前后热力、动力和水汽特征进行分析,结论如下：台风登陆北上后变性为温带气旋,其热力结构呈非对称分布,垂直风切变具有温带气旋特征,台风残涡入海后高空辐散、整层涡度、水汽通量和水汽通量速度等物理因子均明显增强。利用 Petterssen 气旋发展公式探讨入海增强原因,台风残涡入海前,温度平流对台风发展起主要作用,涡度平流对台风发展起抑制作用,台风残涡入海后,温度平流和涡度平流皆有利于台风残涡增强。非绝热加热作用在整个研究时段有利于台风发展,降水释放潜热加热对台风入海增强有正反馈作用,这种作用表现为一种突发性增大的特征。海洋平坦下垫面和适宜的海温是台风残涡入海增强的原因之一。 相似文献
3.
E. A. Sharkov G. A. Kim I. V. Pokrovskaya 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2011,47(9):1084-1091
Energy features of the succession of interrelated tropical cyclones (plural cyclogenesis) in the oceans of the Southern Hemisphere
(the southern part of the Indian Ocean and the southwestern part of the Pacific Ocean) over February 2008 are comprehensively
analyzed on the basis of the method of combining different-scale data of the infrared and radio thermal satellite sounding.
The data of infrared thermal channels of the geostationary Meteosat-7 satellite and the results of reconstruction of integral
water vapor from data of the AMSR-E microwave complex of the Aqua satellite were used. The analysis showed that the region
where water vapor has an increased integral concentration is the most effective channel for pumping the latent heat energy
from the tropics into midlatitudes. Each cyclone captures this region from the tropical zone and retains it throughout the
entire stage of its own evolution with the aid of the jet spiral bridge. The quantitative estimates of the latent energy of
the central equatorial region of water vapor in the intratropical convergence zone (ITCZ) of the Indian and Pacific oceans
were a basically new result, as well as the detection of considerable time variations in the latent heat associated with the
ejection of coherent water-vapor regions into high latitudes by plural cyclogenesis. 相似文献
4.
2021 年冬季(2021 年12 月—2022 年2 月)大气环流特征为:北半球极涡呈多极型分布,中高纬环流呈3 波型分布。位势高度距平场显示,东亚中纬度地区处于正距平区,西伯利亚脊偏强,而东亚大槽较常年同期偏弱,冷空气活动偏少、强度偏强。我国近海出现了 8 次 8 级以上大风过程, 其中冷空气大风过程4 次,冷空气和温带气旋共同影响的大风过程3 次,冷空气和台风共同影响的大风过程1 次。我国近海未出现大范围的海雾过程。西北太平洋和南海共生成 2 个热带气旋,且均达到超强台风级,其中 2122 号台风“雷伊”是历史上 12 月在南海海域达到超强台风级的 2 个台风之一,也是历史上直接袭击南沙群岛的最强台风,还是影响南海最晚的超强台风。另外,全球其他海域共生成热带气旋14 个。我国近海出现2. 0 m 以上大浪过程的天数有56 d,约占冬季总日数的62%。冬季,我国近海海域呈明显降温趋势,北部海域的降温幅度明显大于南部海域,冬季海面温度较常年整体偏高。 相似文献
5.
Bao Chenglan 《海洋学报(英文版)》1988,7(1):43-56
There were 8 typhoons over the northwestern Pacific Ocean in August of 1985. Their movement characteristics were mainly northward or recurvature northward. At the same time, a complex movement of 3 typhoons clustering was observed. In this paper, the typhoon movement tendency is studied by using satellite cloud maps. The westward and northward tendencies can be distinguished clearly. Based on this rule, typhoon movement can be forecasted 12-48 h before. Some characteristics models of the typhoon moving northward or recurving northward on the satellite cloud maps are also given in this paper. 相似文献
6.
台风莫拉克、天鹅和艾涛的引导流及相互作用研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
通过2009年台风莫拉克、天鹅和艾涛的个例研究,分析了使用涡旋分离方法移除涡旋环流并计算台风环境引导流的可行性。利用涡旋分离技术,可以非对称地移除台风涡旋环流,并能进一步分析台风间的相互作用,发现天鹅和艾涛主要对莫拉克有向北的引导作用,天鹅的路径气旋式旋转主要是由于莫拉克环流的作用,莫拉克环流对艾涛有着向北的引导作用,而天鹅和艾涛之间的相互作用相对较小。 相似文献
7.
D. M. Ermakov E. A. Sharkov A. P. Chernushich 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2017,53(9):973-978
This paper is focused on the development of a methodological basis for the authors’ approach to the processing of large volumes of satellite radiothermal data, which is known as satellite radiothermovision. A closed scheme for calculating the latent heat flux (and other integral characteristics of the dynamics of geophysical fields) through arbitrary contours (boundaries) has been constructed and mathematically described. The opportunity for working with static, as well as movable and deformable boundaries of arbitrary shape, has been provided. The computational scheme was tested using the example of calculations of the atmospheric advection of the latent heat from the North Atlantics to the Arctic in 2014. Preliminary analysis of the results showed a high potential of the approach when applying it to the study of a wide range of synoptic and climatically significant atmospheric processes of the Earth. Some areas for the further development of the satellite radiothermovision approach are briefly discussed. It is noted that expanding the analysis of the available satellite data to as much data as possible is of considerable importance. Among the immediate prospects is the analysis of large arrays of data already accumulated and processed in terms of the satellite radiothermovision ideology, which are partially presented and continuously updated on a specialized geoportal. 相似文献
8.
-At present, it is still difficult to obtain an accurate maximum wind speed of typhoon with modern means,such as satellite survey , radar tracing and airplane reconnaissance. The performance of statistical equation established with observational maximum wind speed and the central pressure of typhoon is unstable ,and it is unreliable in operational use. Therefore a general pressure field model of typhoon is introduced in this paper based on atmospheric motion equations and formulas are derived for computing the maximum wind speed around typhoon center over sea surface . The theoretical curves derived from these formulas are in good agreement with those using the statistic empirical curves of typhoon pressure-wind relations over the western Pacific. Tests were conducted for typhoons which occurred in 1973 and in 1983 and the strongest typhoons selected each year during 1970 and 1978,the results were satisfactory. Meanwhile the analyses of computing results showed that the effect of Coriolis force could be 相似文献
9.
Improving the wind and wave estimation of dual-frequency altimeter JASON1 in Typhoon Shanshan and considering the rain effects 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Altimetry data have been widely used in various fiehts of oceanography, including the extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes. The performance of JASON1 in Typhoon Shanshan is assessed by examining the sensor geophysical data record and illustrates how the measured return waveform, significant wave height, and backscatter are all affected by various factors associated with the typhoon, with details by the rain are illustrated. The correction method to maintain accurate wave height and wind speed measurements in Typhoon Shanshan and the results are presented. Furthermore, the additional results of rain rate and typhoon eye diameter can be retrieved. Because of the lack of in-situ measurements of wind, wave, and rain rate at Typhoon Shanshan, results are compared with the forecasted typhoon data and a good agreement is found. 相似文献
10.
台风"森拉克"的数值模拟研究:海洋飞沫的作用 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
台风作为一种在海洋上生成和演变的强烈天气现象，除了环境流场、自身结构以及地形等因子对它产生影响外，海气间的热量动量交换也是台风演变过程中不可或缺的因子。台风期间在海气界面生成大量海洋飞沫，这些飞沫在台风边界层的蒸发必然对海气之间的通量传输过程产生影响，进而影响到台风本身的演变。文章将海洋飞沫参数化引入大气中尺度模式中，对2002年16号台风“森拉克”的演变进行了数值模拟研究。结果表明，引入海洋飞沫参数化方案，可使台风期间海气界面的潜热通量增加50％，10m层风速最大值增加30％，从而使模拟台风的强度明显增加，使模拟结果更趋于合理。因此，在台风数值模拟和预报中考虑海洋飞沫的作用是十分必要的。 相似文献
11.
根据1949-2017年广东省登陆热带气旋最佳路径数据以及1994-2016年广东省重大热带气旋灾害资料,对登陆广东省热带气旋的时空分布特征及其影响进行了统计分析。结果表明:广东省登陆热带气旋频数的年际变化明显,总体上呈下降趋势。7-9月是广东省热带气旋登陆的高频期,登陆地点主要集中在湛江、汕尾、阳江、江门。登陆广东省的热带气旋主要来自南海北部和菲律宾以东洋面;其中登陆最多的是强热带风暴,其次是热带风暴和台风。 相似文献
12.
1949-2017年南海海域热带气旋强度和路径快速变化统计特征 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
为进一步认识南海地区热带气旋强度和路径快速变化的统计特征,利用中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的1949–2017年的热带气旋最佳路径数据集,统计分析了不同强度等级热带气旋发生强度和路径快速变化的特征。结果表明:(1)由强热带风暴快速加强为台风、以及由台风快速加强为强台风是热带气旋强度快速加强发生频率最多的事件;强度快速加强次数以1次居多,一般不会超过2次;但大部分途经南海的热带气旋出现快速加强时都在南海以外的地区,在南海出现快速加强的概率仅为9.8%。(2)不同强度的热带气旋,其强度的维持时间长短对其强度快速加强有重要影响,一般在该强度的前24 h是快速加强的最佳阶段,当其中心气压下降速度超过?12.0 hPa/(6 h)时容易出现台风级别或以上的强度快速加强,且热带气旋快速加强容易出现在海温偏高地区。(3)南海地区热带气旋路径的偏转主要出现在西行路径中,其中以5°～30°的偏转为最常见,占到全部热带气旋总数的48.65%,不过,按照定义的路径快速转向标准,路径快速转向的概率仅有15.13%。随着热带气旋强度的增强,南海地区发生路径快速转向的频次迅速减少,路径快速转向主要出现在近海岸地区和南海中北部偏东区域。这些结果进一步细化和丰富了对南海地区热带气旋强度和路径快速变化的认识。 相似文献
13.
The present study evaluates future storm surge risk due to tropical cyclones (typhoons) in East Asia. A state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) outputs are employed as the driving force for simulating storm surges associated with the projected changes in climate. The reproducibility of tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics from the GCM in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) is confirmed by comparing with the observed best track data, and future typhoon changes were presented. Storm surge simulation is carried out for East Asia, with the finest nested domain on the Japanese coast. The probability of maximum storm surge heights with specified return periods is determined using extreme value statistics. We show a strong regional dependency on future changes of severe storm surges. 相似文献
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The state of the natural environment of the marginal seas of the Northwest Pacific is largely controlled by the interaction of the atmospheric and hydrophysical processes. Tropical cyclones (typhoons), originating in the tropical zone of the Northwest Pacific and over the South China Sea basin, occupy a special place among atmospheric processes. The main destructive impact of typhoons falls on Southeast Asia. However, a significant number of are moving to the Russian Far East. The region of the South China Sea plays a significant role in the formation of tropical cyclones. This determines the importance of studying hydrometeorological processes not only in the Far East, but also in the South China Sea, and the need for cooperation between Vietnamese and Russian scientists. The main hydrodynamic structure of the western South China Sea is the Vietnamese Coastal Current (Western Boundary current), which depends not only on the seasonal monsoons but also on typhoons. The paper presents the results of joint Russian–Vietnamese studies of the dependence of the vertical structure of the Vietnamese Coastal Current on the Pacific tropical cyclones that form in the South China Sea. The study is done with numerical modeling. The period from April to June 1999 was used for modeling, provided with the necessary field data. The simulation results showed that, in general, the structure of water masses depends on the trajectories of tropical cyclones. In all cases considered, the Vietnamese Coastal Current is not a single flow, but represents a zone of eddy structures of different directions. An exception is the only situation in the condition of a tropical cyclone in the central region of the South China Sea when this current acquired the form of a single continuous flow directed from north to south only in the 200-m layer. The general patterns of changes in the dynamic structure of the Vietnamese Coastal Current for all the considered tropical cyclone trajectories include the following: areas with water transport in the northern direction prevail on the surface, while the rest of the water mass continues to flow generally in the southern direction. This transport of surface waters may be due to the influence of the emerging summer monsoon, and the rest of the water mass, which is less exposed to the still weak atmospheric processes of the monsoon type, continues to flow in the winter regime.
相似文献17.
采用1979—2019年热带气旋最佳路径资料,分析影响中国沿海的热带气旋的时空演变特征,并结合Ni?o3.4指数、海表温度和海洋上层热容量资料,对热带气旋与ENSO变化关系进行初步探讨。结果表明,近40年来影响中国沿海的热带气旋经历了1990年代减弱,2000年代增强的变化过程,且在2000年以后呈现显著向岸迁移趋势。影响中国沿海的热带气旋与表征ENSO的Ni?o3.4指数的相关关系在2000年发生突变,具体表现为ACE与Ni?o3.4指数在2000年前呈显著正相关,2000年后二者相关性明显下降。通过将ACE分解成平均强度ACE1、持续时间ACE2和频数ACE3这三个分量,发现2000年前Ni?o3.4指数与平均强度ACE1呈显著正相关,但2000年后Ni?o3.4指数与ACE1相关关系减弱,这可能是导致ACE与Ni?o3.4指数的相关关系在2000年左右发生突变的主要原因。持续时间ACE2与Ni?o3.4指数一直保持显著正相关,频数ACE3<... 相似文献
18.
Akio Maeda 《Journal of Oceanography》1971,27(3):109-115
Temperature field in the vicinal area of station T (29N, 135E) before and after Typhoon 6411 in summer 1964 is analysed from measurements with BT. At a location 68 km distant from the path of the typhoon, temperature at each depth became lower in the upper layer from surface to 50 m deep and became higher in the lower layer from 50 m to 130 m deep in connection with passage of the typhoon than temperature at each depth in these layers before the typhoon, respectively. Heat loss in the upper layer and heat gain in the lower layer are estimated to be almost comparable in amount. Equivalence in the heat gain and loss suggests that temperature changes were caused by vertical mixing due to strong wind of the typhoon. At a location 164 km distant from the path of the typhoon, however, heat gain of the lower layer from 35 m to 250 m deep exceeded heat loss of the upper layer from surface to 35 m deep. In addition to vertical mixing, horizontal advection or some other processes should be taken into account in order to explain the temperature changes in the area a little distant from the typhoon path. For recovery of the temperature changes at these locations 8 days were needed. This recovery time is almost equal to those in the case of some other typhoons, about which the discussion was made in the previous paper (Maeda, 1965). 相似文献
19.
A mesoscale coupled atmosphere–ocean model has been developed based on the GRAPES(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) regional typhoon model(GRAPES_TYM) and ECOM-si(estuary, coast and ocean model(semi-implicit)). Coupling between the typhoon and ocean models was conducted by exchanging wind stress, heat, moisture fluxes, and sea surface temperatures(SSTs) using the coupler OASIS3.0. Numerical prediction experiments were run with and without coupling for the case of Typhoon Muifa in the western North Pacific. To investigate the impact of using more accurate SST information on the simulation of the track and the intensity of Typhoon Muifa, experiments were also conducted using increased SST resolution in the initial condition field of the control test. The results indicate that increasing SST resolution in the initial condition field somewhat improved the intensity forecast, and use of the coupled model improved the intensity forecast significantly, with mean absolute errors in maximum wind speed within 48 and 72 h reduced by 32% and 20%, respectively. Use of the coupled model also resulted in less pronounced over-prediction of the intensity of Typhoon Muifa by the GRAPES_TYM. Moreover, the effects of using the coupled model on the intensity varied throughout the different stages of the development of Muifa owing to changes in the oceanic mixed layer depth. The coupled model had pronounced effects during the later stage of Muifa but had no obvious effects during the earlier stage. The SSTs predicted by the coupled model decreased by about 5–6°C at most after the typhoon passed, in agreement with satellite data. Furthermore, based on analysis on the sea surface heat flux, wet static energy of the boundary layer, atmospheric temperature, and precipitation forecasted by the coupled model and the control test, the simulation results of this coupled atmosphere–ocean model can be considered to reasonably reflect the primary mechanisms underlying the interactions between tropical cyclones and oceans. 相似文献
20.
利用1951—2012年日本气象厅(JMA)热带气旋(TC)最佳路径资料,分析了影响南海的土台风和非局地台风62 a间的时空分布特征,比较了二者在时空分布上的差异性,得到以下主要结果:土台风源地位置与热带季风性气候有关,夏季风时主要在15°N以北,冬季风时向15°N以南移动;土台风与非局地台风相比,活动范围更广,但强度比后者弱;土台风在南海的强度发展过程呈对称曲线形式,非局地台风则是一条递减曲线;土台风和非局地台风的登陆位置都具有季风期规律,夏季风时登陆的TC比冬季风时登陆的多得多,同纬度的非局地台风比土台风移动速度大。 相似文献