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1.
Turbid-water problem of reservoirs due to soil erosion causes a major issue in dam operation. This study presents a methodology
to quantitatively analyze the occurrence possibility of turbid-water in four hydrologic basins (Sayeon, Degok, Gwangdong,
and Imha Dam basins in S. Korea), quantifying the weighting value of turbid-water occurrence in reservoirs. To do this, the
study conducted indoor tests, including laser-assisted particle size analysis, X-ray powder diffraction method analysis, and
scanning electron microscope, to give the geologic characteristics such as the distribution of soil particle size, settlement
time, landslide, and existing sediment yield. The study used RUSLE models to calculate sediment yield on the basis of soil
maps, DEMs, and landcover maps as auxiliary data. This study classified factors for evaluating the possibility of turbid-water
occurrence into geology, sediment yield, landslide and soil components, and these evaluation items’ weighting and score are
presented using the analytic hierarchy process technique. The suggested method is promising in that it can analyze the risk
factor of turbid-water occurrence in basins and that can provide a guideline to estimate the turbid-water occurrence of reservoir
in dam construction. 相似文献
2.
Balqis M. Rehan 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):1039-1057
Economic damage assessment for flood risk estimation is established in many countries, but attentions have been focused on macro- or meso-scale approaches and less on micro-scale approaches. Whilst the macro- or meso-scale approaches of flood damage assessment are suitable for regional- or national-oriented studies, micro-scale approaches are more suitable for cost–benefit analysis of engineered protection measures. Furthermore, there remains lack of systematic and automated approaches to estimate economic flood damage for multiple flood scenarios for the purpose of flood risk assessment. Studies on flood risk have also been driven by the assumption of stationary characteristic of flood hazard, hence the stationary-oriented vulnerability assessment. This study proposes a novel approach to assess vulnerability and flood risk and accounts for adaptability of the approach to nonstationary conditions of flood hazard. The approach is innovative in which an automated concurrent estimation of economic flood damage for a range of flood events on the basis of a micro-scale flood risk assessment is made possible. It accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of residential buildings of a community exposed to flood hazard. The feasibility of the methodology was tested using real historical flow records and spatial information of Teddington, London. Vulnerability curves and residual risk associated with a number of alternative extents of property-level protection adoptions are estimated by the application of the proposed methodology. It is found that the methodology has the capacity to provide valuable information on vulnerability and flood risk that can be integrated in a practical decision-making process for a reliable cost–benefit analysis of flood risk reduction options. 相似文献
3.
Al Hoceima is one of the most seismic active regions in north of Morocco. It is demonstrated by the large seismic episodes reported in seismic catalogs and research studies. However, seismic risk is relatively high due to vulnerable buildings that are either old or don’t respect seismic standards. Our aim is to present a study about seismic risk and seismic scenarios for the city of Al Hoceima. The seismic vulnerability of the existing residential buildings was evaluated using the vulnerability index method (Risk-UE). It was chosen to be adapted and applied to the Moroccan constructions for its practicality and simple methodology. A visual inspection of 1102 buildings was carried out to assess the vulnerability factors. As for seismic hazard, it was evaluated in terms of macroseismic intensity for two scenarios (a deterministic and probabilistic scenario). The maps of seismic risk are represented by direct damage on buildings, damage to population and economic cost. According to the results, the main vulnerability index of the city is equal to 0.49 and the seismic risk is estimated as Slight (main damage grade equal to 0.9 for the deterministic scenario and 0.7 for the probabilistic scenario). However, Moderate to heavy damage is expected in areas located in the newer extensions, in both the east and west of the city. Important economic losses and damage to the population are expected in these areas as well. The maps elaborated can be a potential guide to the decision making in the field of seismic risk prevention and mitigation strategies in Al Hoceima. 相似文献
4.
Consequence analysis is, together with hazard evaluation, one of the major steps of landslide risk assessment. However, a significant discrepancy exists between the number of published landslide hazard and landslide consequence studies. While various methodologies for regional-scale hazard assessment have been developed during the last decade, studies for estimating and visualising possible landslide consequences are still limited, and those existing are often difficult to apply in practice mainly because of the lack of data on the historical damage or on landslide damage functions. In this paper, an indicator-based GIS-aided methodology is proposed with an application to regional-scale consequence analysis. The index, called Potential Damage Index, allows describing, quantifying, valuing, totalizing and visualising different types of consequences. The method allows estimating the possible damage caused by landslides by combining weighted indicators reflecting the exposure of the elements at risk. Direct (physical injury, and structural and functional damage) and indirect (socio-economic impacts) consequences are individually analysed and subsequently combined to obtain a map of total consequences due to landsliding. Geographic visualisation of the index allows the delineation of the areas exposed to any type of possible impacts that could be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability of occurrence. The method has been successfully applied to analyse the present consequences in the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps). These maps contribute to development of adequate land use and evacuation plans, and thus are important tools for local authorities and insurance companies. 相似文献
5.
Seismic risk assessment of buildings in urban areas: a case study for Denizli,Turkey 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
This study aims to carry out a seismic risk assessment for a typical mid-size city based on building inventory from a field
study. Contributions were made to existing loss estimation methods for buildings. In particular, a procedure was introduced
to estimate the seismic quality of buildings using a scoring scheme for the effective parameters in seismic behavior. Denizli,
a typical mid-size city in Turkey, was used as a case study. The building inventory was conducted by trained observers in
a selected region of Denizli that had the potential to be damaged from expected future earthquakes according to geological
and geotechnical studies. Parameters that are known to have some effect on the seismic performance of the buildings during
past earthquakes were collected during the inventory studies. The inventory includes data of about 3,466 buildings on 4,226
parcels. The evaluation of inventory data provided information about the distribution of building stock according to structural
system, construction year, and vertical and plan irregularities. The inventory data and the proposed procedure were used to
assess the building damage, and to determine casualty and shelter needs during the M6.3 and 7.0 scenario earthquakes, representing
the most probable and maximum earthquakes in Denizli, respectively. The damage assessment and loss studies showed that significant
casualties and economic losses can be expected in future earthquakes. Seismic risk assessment of reinforced concrete buildings
also revealed the priorities among building groups. The vulnerability in decreasing order is: (1) buildings with 6 or more
stories, (2) pre-1975 constructed buildings, and (3) buildings with 3–5 stories. The future studies for evaluating and reducing
seismic risk for buildings should follow this priority order. All data of inventory, damage, and loss estimates were assembled
in a Geographical Information System (GIS) database. 相似文献
6.
对泰青威天然气管道临朐段地质灾害发育特征进行调查研究发现,临朐段地质灾害类型主要为水毁灾害,具体可分为坡面水毁、河沟道水毁和台田地水毁。野外地质灾害实地调查临朐段管道沿线共发现地质灾害15处,其中坡面水毁点6处,河沟道水毁点4处,台田地水毁点5处。采用定性与半定量相结合的评价方法对其进行地质灾害风险评价,结果表明: 地质灾害风险等级较高的有1处,占6.66%; 风险等级中等的有4处,占26.67%; 风险等级较低的有10处,占66.67%。根据管道沿线地形地貌、地质灾害发育密度、风险等级等因素,划分地质灾害中易发区61 km,低易发区10 km,管道沿线以地质灾害中易发区为主。最后,针对不同类型、不同风险等级地质灾害提出了相应的防治消减措施,为后期管道安全运营和风险整治决策提供了有效的技术依据。 相似文献
7.
盐岩地下油气储库运营期风险的故障树分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
盐岩以其良好的蠕变特性、低渗透性和损伤自我恢复性而被广泛用于地下油气能源储备,虽然目前国内外对盐岩力学特性的研究成果较多,但关于盐岩地下油气储库风险分析的研究报道却尚不多见。为了探讨盐岩地下油气储库运营期的风险机制,以江苏金坛盐岩地下油气储库为示范工程,对储库运营期的风险因子进行了辨识。应用故障树分析方法对储库运营期事故进行研究,建立了储库运营期腔体失效、地表沉陷、油气渗漏的故障树模型。通过对运营期故障树最小割集和结构重要度的分析,将储库运营期的风险因子按其影响程度进行了排序,并对故障树分析方法进行了评价,所得结论为进一步开展储库风险评估与控制提供了指导意见。 相似文献
8.
Osipov V. I. Larionov V. I. Burova V. N. Frolova N. I. Sushchev S. P. 《Natural Hazards》2017,88(1):17-41
The Russian Federation territory is prone to various natural hazards. The paper analyzes the most hazardous natural processes that may cause human deaths, injuries and health damage, as well as considerable economic loss. The history of studies in the assessment of different natural risk indices in the interests of particular end-users is described, and the conceptual instruments used in the assessment of natural risk indices are considered. The principle GIS-based methodical approaches to the assessment and mapping of natural risk are provided. The examples of estimation and mapping of natural risk are cited and their application by different end-users (i.e., state and municipal authorities, Ministry of Construction of Russia, Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (Emercom of Russia)). 相似文献
9.
Vulnerability of buildings to debris flow impact 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for landslide hazards are increasingly being executed to determine an unmitigated level
of risk and compare it with risk tolerance criteria set by the local or federal jurisdiction. This approach allows urban planning
with a scientific underpinning and provides the tools for emergency preparedness. Debris-flow QRAs require estimates of the
hazard probability, spatial and temporal probability of impact (hazard assessment) and vulnerability of the elements at risk.
The vulnerability term is perhaps the most difficult to estimate confidently because (a) human death in debris flows is most
commonly associated with building damage or collapse and is thus an indirect consequence and (b) the type and scale of building
damage is very difficult to predict. To determine building damage, an intensity index (I
DF) was created as the product of maximum expected flow depth d and the square of the maximum flow velocity v (I
DF = dv
2). The I
DF surrogates impact force and thus correlates with building damage. Four classes of building damage were considered ranging
from nuisance flood/sedimentation damage to complete destruction. Sixty-six well-documented case studies in which damage,
flow depth and flow velocity were recorded or could be estimated were selected through a search of the global literature,
and I
DF was plotted on a log scale against the associated damage. As expected, the individual damage classes overlap but are distinctly
different in their respective distributions and group centroids. To apply this vulnerability model, flow velocity and flow
depth need to be estimated for a given building location and I
DF calculated. Using the existing database, a damage probability (P
DF) can then be computed. P
DF can be applied directly to estimate the likely insurance loss or associated loss of life. The model presented here should
be updated with more case studies and is therefore made openly available to international researchers who can access it at
. 相似文献
10.
This article assesses the extent and costs of lightning-related damage and disruption in Canada. Lightning routinely damages
property and disrupts economic and social activities. Affected sectors include health; property and casualty insurance; forestry;
electricity generation, transmission, and distribution; agriculture; telecommunications; transportation; and tourism and recreation—the
first four sectors are the most important in terms of contributing to overall impacts and costs. Secondary data and extrapolations
from U.S. studies were used to develop cost estimates for the health, property, forestry, and electricity sectors. Aggregated,
annual lightning-related damage and disruption costs in Canada range from CA$600 million to CA$600 million to CA1 billion. Forestry and electricity
damages accounted for over 85% of the total. The estimates are both preliminary and conservative. In terms of continued research,
additional or more refined studies using Canadian empirical data are warranted for the insurance and electricity sectors.
Detailed insurance claim or outage data would permit analysis at the storm level and potentially discern finer-scaled risk
patterns. Further effort is also required to evaluate risk or damage prevention measures, particularly those that relate to
expanded or enriched use of the Canadian Lightning Detection Network data by both public and private sector clients. Both
the degree of adoption and efficacy or cost-effectiveness should be investigated. 相似文献
11.
区域滑坡风险综合评估应该包括三方面要素,即:滑坡区域风险分布滑坡风险概率、滑坡风险损失。作者在滑坡风险区划的基础上,查明风险分布的状况,评估风险影响的地区范围。根据滑坡的诱发因素,分析发育的滑坡特点,评估滑坡发生的概率。采用受灾面积占评估区域的损失率统计,评估可能受灾损失的规模。将三要素评估迭加,建立了滑坡风险综合评估模型。并将此模型在四川省攀枝花市米易县进行了示范研究,最后得到米易县全县滑坡风险中等偏低的结论,这与研究区的实际情况基本一致,取得了较好的应用效果。 相似文献
12.
Assessment of weathering damage on the Petroglyphs of Cheonjeon-ri, Ulsan, Republic of Korea 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The Petroglyphs of Cheonjeon-ri in the area of Ulsan Metropolitan City in the southeastern part of the Republic of Korea represent outstanding cultural property of the country. The rock carvings—discovered about 40 years ago—provide valuable information on the life of the ancient people of different periods. In 1973, the petroglyphs were designated Korean National Treasure. Apparently, the petroglyphs have suffered damage from weathering such as loss of stone material, current detachment of stone material and deposits on the stone surface. The protection of this masterpiece of historic rock carving has become an important concern in the country. Geoscientific studies were carried out, targeted to stone analysis and to characterization and rating of weathering damage. The diagnostic studies combined laboratory analysis of representative unweathered and weathered stone material and in situ investigation by means of profile measurements at the carvings, mapping of weathering forms, ultrasonic measurements and rebound hardness measurements. Methodology and results of the material and damage diagnosis are presented. The results on type and extent of damage in combination with deduced risk prognosis reveal a considerable threat to the historical site of Cheonjeon-ri due to weathering and they indicate the need of intervention for monument preservation. 相似文献
13.
Damage Potential and Losses Resulting from Snow Avalanches in Settlements of the Canton of Grisons,Switzerland 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
In the field of natural hazards, risk is usually expressed as a function of probability of occurrence and damage potential. A key factor in the development of avalanche risk is a change in damage potential. In this paper, the development of damage potential and losses is analysed for settlements in the canton of Grisons, Switzerland for the period between 1950 and 2000. The spatial development patterns of the residential population and the insured value of buildings on a municipal level are described. These patterns are overlain by an accentuated occurrence of avalanches that caused damage to buildings. Extensive results from areas threatened by avalanches in the municipality of Davos are presented. Although the natural avalanche activity remained constant during the last decades, the total amount of damage decreased due to mitigation measures. The example of the municipality of Davos shows that mitigation measures are able to compensate an increase of tangible assets which leads to a reduced avalanche risk compared to earlier decades. 相似文献
14.
The Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami damaged or destroyed many industrial facilities housing or processing hazardous substances, such as refineries, petrochemical facilities and other types of chemical industry. This showed that also generally well prepared countries are at risk of suffering natural hazard triggered technological (Natech) accidents. An analysis of data collected from open sources and through interviews with authorities was performed to understand the main reasons for the industrial damage and downtime as well as the extent of hazardous-materials releases and the associated impact on society. The analysis of the data set confirmed the findings from other studies with respect to main damage and failure modes, as well as hazardous-materials release paths. In addition, gaps in Natech risk management were identified. Based on the data analysis and interviews lessons learned in support of a more far-reaching Natech risk management are presented. 相似文献
15.
Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6
With the recent transition to a more risk-based approach in flood management, flood risk models—being a key component in flood
risk management—are becoming increasingly important. Such models combine information from four components: (1) the flood hazard
(mostly inundation depth), (2) the exposure (e.g. land use), (3) the value of elements at risk and (4) the susceptibility
of the elements at risk to hydrologic conditions (e.g. depth–damage curves). All these components contain, however, a certain
degree of uncertainty which propagates through the calculation and accumulates in the final damage estimate. In this study,
an effort has been made to assess the influence of uncertainty in these four components on the final damage estimate. Different
land-use data sets and damage models have been used to represent the uncertainties in the exposure, value and susceptibility
components. For the flood hazard component, inundation depth has been varied systematically to estimate the sensitivity of
flood damage estimations to this component. The results indicate that, assuming the uncertainty in inundation depth is about
25 cm (about 15% of the mean inundation depth), the total uncertainty surrounding the final damage estimate in the case study
area can amount to a factor 5–6. The value of elements at risk and depth–damage curves are the most important sources of uncertainty
in flood damage estimates and can both introduce about a factor 2 of uncertainty in the final damage estimates. Very large
uncertainties in inundation depth would be necessary to have a similar effect on the uncertainty of the final damage estimate,
which seem highly unrealistic. Hence, in order to reduce the uncertainties surrounding potential flood damage estimates, these
components deserve prioritisation in future flood damage research. While absolute estimates of flood damage exhibit considerable
uncertainty (the above-mentioned factor 5–6), estimates for proportional changes in flood damages (defined as the change in
flood damages as a percentage of a base situation) are much more robust. 相似文献
16.
Although geophysical hazards like earthquakes can lead to tremendous losses, they are often neglected or not considered in risk analyses within an Alpine context. However, lately and especially in the framework of multi-risk analyses, earthquake risk studies are being increasingly implemented within an Alpine relation too. The presented study was conducted to quantitatively estimate potential consequences of earthquake events in the Austrian Province of Tyrol. The methodological study framework integrates the general risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. They are considered on a regional scale, accepting pragmatic approaches with simplified procedures and assumptions. Scenarios for different potential epicentres were calculated based on two different macroseismic hazard maps derived from punctual ground motion values of the building code and microzonation studies. The maps take into account the design event definitions of existing building code and a, thereupon based, simple and mono-causal Maximum Credible Earthquake assumption. Corresponding elements at risk and damage potentials were identified and potential losses were estimated under consideration of different vulnerability approaches. It can be shown that most scenarios based on the design event definition of the Austrian and European building codes, respectively have the potential of building and inventory losses solely of some hundred million up to approximately €4 billion. Additional, building and inventory losses of maximum credible events can lead to losses of more than €7 billion merely in connection with the primary earthquake event neglecting all other cascading effects. 相似文献
17.
In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging.
相似文献18.
In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging. 相似文献
19.
Flood risk assessment is usually performed by application of sophisticated mathematical models of river flow. However, there are cases when it is required to assess the risk in the lack of data conditions or a limited time available. In such cases, it is advisable to use some simplifications, which provide reliable results faster. This study proposes a hybrid approach to the flood risk assessment combining quantitative and qualitative indicators. The article describes various methods to assess the flood risk, such as likelihood of flooding, magnitude of the flood, average annual damage, maximum damage and expectation of damage. The authors examined special cases of calculation of the mathematical expectation of harm and zoning in the corresponding indicators. This approach is designed for the conditions of the Russian Federation, but it can be adapted for other regions. It is based on the use of two types of risk maps. The first type of maps is intended to define the mathematical expectation of damage zones for reference building with possibility of risk calculation for other buildings using multiple factors. The second type of maps is designed for the purposes of land use regulation for floodplains based on a priori statistical estimates of flood risk. 相似文献
20.
Agnieszka Malinowska 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(2):317-334
A framework of applying the classification and regression tree theory (CART) for assessing the concrete building damage, caused by surface deformation, is proposed. The prognosis methods used for approximated building hazard estimation caused by continuous deformation are unsatisfactory. Variable local soil condition, changing intensity of the continuous deformation and variable resistance of the concrete buildings require the prognosis method adapted to the local condition. Terrains intensely induced by surface deformation are build-up with hundreds of building, so the method of their hazard estimation needs to be approximated and relatively fast. Therefore, promising might be addressing problems of reliable building damage risk assessment by application of classification and regression tree. The presented method based on the classification and regression tree theory enables to establish the most significant risk factors causing the building damage. Chosen risk factors underlie foundation for the concrete building damage prognosis method, which was caused by the surface continuous deformation. The established method enabled to assess the severity of building damage and was adapted to the local condition. High accuracy of shown approach is validated based on the independent data set of the buildings from the similar region. The research presented introduces the CART to determination of the risk of building damage with the emphasis on the grade of the building damage. Since presented method bases on the observations of the damages from the previous subsidence, the method might be applied to any local condition, where the previous subsidence is known. 相似文献