共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Surface-layer flow in complex terrain: Comparison of models and full-scale observations 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
John L. Walmsley Ib Troen Demetrius P. Lalas Paul J. Mason 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1990,52(3):259-281
Four models of surface boundary-layer flow in complex terrain are compared with observations made at Blashaval Hill, North Uist, Scotland. The field experiment is described by Mason and King (1985). Three of the models are derived from the two-dimensional theory of Jackson and Hunt (1975) and are described in Mason and King (1985), Walmsley et al. (1986) and Troen and Petersen (1989). The fourth is a mass-consistent code based on Traci et al. (1979). The model results are in good agreement with each other and are generally within the observed range of variation ( ~ ± 16%) in normalized wind speed. For most wind direcions (7 of 11), model results of normalized wind speed at the summit were within 7% of the observed mean values. For some wind directions, calculations using the Guidelines of Walmsley et al. (1989) suggested that variations in surface roughness were important. This led us to apply one of our models incorporating nonuniform surface roughness. The lack of significant improvement for cases when water lay upstream of Blashaval Hill is attributed to compensating changes at summit and reference sites and to very local effects on the wind data. Sensitivity to topography lying to the west and northwest of Blashaval was also investigated. Results suggested an influence from those distant topographic features for some wind directions. When those features were incorporated, maximum errors in normalized wind speed at the summit were reduced from 18 to 13%. 相似文献
2.
J. R. Salmon H. W. Teunissen R. E. Mickle P. A. Taylor 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1988,43(4):309-343
Field observations of the influence of topography on steady, neutrally-stratified boundary-layer flow were carried out in February 1981 and March 1984 on Kettles Hill near Pincher Creek, Alberta, Canada. The primary measurements were of wind speed at 3,6, and 10 m levels at stations in linear arrays along and across the major axis of this gentle, 1 km long and 100 m high, elliptical hill. Wind profile measurements up to heights of 200 m were made with TALA kites and tethersondes on the hilltop and at a reference site located about 3.7 km west of the hilltop. In addition, AIRsondes were flown and tracked from the reference site to provide additional data. The field observations provided the basic data for a comparison with wind-tunnel and numerical model simulations of the same flow. The wind-tunnel investigation was carried out in the Atmospheric Environment Service Boundary-Layer Wind Tunnel while the numerical model used was MS3DJH. For horizontal profiles of normalized mean wind speed at given heights above the prototype terrain, model results agree reasonably well with the field data. The wind-tunnel predictions are slightly high in most cases. For vertical profiles of wind speed up to 200 m above the hilltop, the numerical and wind-tunnel values are higher than were observed. The sensitivity of the normalized wind speed at the hilltop to deviations from non-logarithmic upwind profiles is demonstrated with data from the March 1984 experiment. A comparison of prototype with numerical-model mean-wind-direction perturbations at the 10 m level shows reasonable agreement except near the summit of the hill.Contractor: 24 Heslop Drive, Toronto. 相似文献
3.
初步研发了一套基于机器学习方法XGBoost且考虑地形特征影响的数值预报多模式集成技术,并与传统的等权重平均和线性回归方法的集成效果进行了对比分析。利用北京地区快速更新循环数值预报系统每天8次循环预报给出的近地面2 m温度、2 m相对湿度、10 m风速、10 m风向数据产品,分别基于机器学习方法XGBoost、等权重平均方法、线性回归方法构建了3种体现地形因子影响的多模式预报时间滞后集成模型。试验对比分析了暖季、冷季每日不同时刻的模式预报集成订正效果。结果表明:分季节试验中,基于XGBoost模型对2 m温度、10 m风速的集成预报结果相对原始最优预报结果误差明显优于其他两种传统方法。XGBoost对2 m温度集成的误差可降低11.02%—18.09%,10 m风速集成误差可降低31.23%—33.22%,10 m风向集成误差可降低4.1%—8.23%。2 m相对湿度的集成预报误差与传统方法接近。基于XGBoost的多模式集成预报模型可以充分“挖掘”不同模式或不同时刻快速更新循环预报优点,有效降低模式的系统性误差,提供准确性更高的多模式集成确定性预报产品。 相似文献
4.
Flow over the summit of an isolated hill 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
P. J. Mason 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1986,37(4):385-405
Observations of the mean flow and turbulence statistics over the summit of an isolated, roughly circular hill, Nyland hill, are presented, Nyland hill rises 70 m above the surrounding terrain and has a base diameter of about 500 m. The summit of the hill is very smooth and allows representative measurements to be made close to the surface. The flow speed 8 m above the summit is increased by a factor of 2 over the upstream speed 8 m above level terrain, and flow separation occurs in the lee of the hill. The mean velocity profile over the summit shows an increase in velocity with height up to about 2 m and then a near constant velocity between 2 and 16 m. The flow perturbation relative to the upstream profile is thus a maximum at about 2 m. The measurements of turbulence structure show how the influence of the hill depends on the length scale of the turbulent eddies involved. Scales greater than the scale of the hill are modified through the flow speed-up whilst scales shorter than the hill suffer complex changes. The short-scale turbulence over the summit is only in local equilibrium in the lowest fraction of a metre. Above this equilibrium region, there is a complex adjustment towards the rapid distortion dynamics which appear to dominate at heights above about 8 m. The detailed results are compared with previous studies and available theories. 相似文献
5.
The mean flow profile within and above a tall canopy is well known to violate the standard boundary-layer flux–gradient relationships.
Here we present a theory for the flow profile that is comprised of a canopy model coupled to a modified surface-layer model.
The coupling between the two components and the modifications to the surface-layer profiles are formulated through the mixing
layer analogy for the flow at a canopy top. This analogy provides an additional length scale—the vorticity thickness—upon
which the flow just above the canopy, within the so-called roughness sublayer, depends. A natural form for the vertical profiles
within the roughness sublayer follows that overcomes problems with many earlier forms in the literature. Predictions of the
mean flow profiles are shown to match observations over a range of canopy types and stabilities.
The unified theory predicts that key parameters, such as the displacement height and roughness length, have a significant
dependence on the boundary-layer stability. Assuming one of these parameters a priori leads to the incorrect variation with stability of the others and incorrect predictions of the mean wind speed profile. The
roughness sublayer has a greater impact on the mean wind speed in stable than unstable conditions. The presence of a roughness
sublayer also allows the surface to exert a greater drag on the boundary layer for an equivalent value of the near-surface
wind speed than would otherwise occur. This characteristic would alter predictions of the evolution of the boundary layer
and surface states if included within numerical weather prediction models. 相似文献
6.
L. H. Allen Jr. 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1975,8(1):39-79
Model predictions of CO2 concentrations downwind from a line source were calibrated using experimental data. Agreement between the model and experimental data was improved by adjusting for wind direction meander and cup anemometer overshoot. The model predictions showed that by using a negative exponential wind speed profile within the crop canopy, predictions were closer to observed CO2 concentration profiles than when experimentally-observed wind speed profiles, which were constant with height in the lower canopy, were used. This finding suggests that much of the lower canopy airflow was not direct mass flow in the downwind direction. Eddy diffusivity profiles which showed a within-canopy local minimum resulted in arestriction in the predicted loss of CO2 out of the canopy system. Two-dimensional plots of predicted null vertical flux and CO2 concentration portrayed vividly the turbulent diffusion and mass flow transport of CO2 from the line source. 相似文献
7.
两种模式在风电场风速预测应用中的对比 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用2011年12月至2012年11月贺兰山风电场测风塔实测资料和同期WRF、BJ-RUC模式预测结果,对2种模式在风速预测中的应用进行对比分析。结果发现,月尺度上,2种模式预测的风速月均值普遍较实测值高,且WRF较BJ-RUC更接近实测值;WRF预测的月平均风速标准差普遍较实测低,而BJ-RUC普遍比实测大;春季WRF预测效果整体上较BJ-RUC好,其它季节WRF预测的月平均风速均方根误差较BJ-RUC的小,但与实测风速的相关性较BJ-RUC与实测风速相关性差。日尺度上,凌晨至中午前后和傍晚至前半夜2个时段,2种模式预测风速普遍比实测值大,而中午至傍晚时分正相反,预测值普遍较实测小。2种模式对〉12 m·s^-1风速预测的均方根误差最小,其次是3~12 m·s^-1,〈3 m·s^-1风速预测的均方根误差最大,但BJ-RUC对3~12 m·s^-1范围风速的变化趋势把握能力较好。WRF和BJ-RUC都普遍低估了1~4 m·s^-1风速段的频次,对5~10 m·s^-1范围频次普遍明显高估,对10 m·s^-1以上风速,WRF预测频次较实测低,而BJ-RUC预测频次则较实测高。BJ-RUC对该区风向的预测能力较WRF好。 相似文献
8.
A model is presented to transform wind speed observations at a single height over sea or near the coast to any possible location and height in a topographic flat coastal region (up to distances of about 5 km from the coast and up to heights of 100 m). Only moderate and strong winds from the sea are considered, which are particularly important for wind energy applications. The model, called diabatic coast model, which is based on the well known internal boundary layer (IBL) concept and Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, describes the effects of the roughness transition from sea to land as well as the effect of stability on the shape of the profiles and the IBL growth. The predicted IBL heights are compared with published data.In the second part of this paper, the model is compared with measurements taken at the Maasvlakte location near the Dutch coast. It is shown that a neutral formulation of the IBL height is sufficient to model the overall mean wind speed with height, but that stability corrections are needed to describe the diurnal variations in wind speed properly. Finally, an application is given, where a single routine wind speed observation at the coast, combined with air-water temperature differences is used to predict the wind speed at 500m from the coast at heights of 10 and 53 m. The results are in good agreement with the measurements. 相似文献
9.
为了提高风电场风速预报和功率预测的精度和准确率,并考虑风机测风数据的不稳定因素,以多年服务的内蒙古中部某风力发电场A为研究区,在勘察风电场地形及风机布局后,按照季节、风向进行风机间风速时空相关性分析,划分出风机轮毂高度风速高相关为典型特征的风机网格分类片区,采用卡尔曼滤波方法,通过直接和间接两种订正方案,分别进行风机片区风速订正。结果表明:风速高相关风机片区的划分,对于提高风电场风速预报及功率预测精度和准确率具有一定作用,利用风电场区测风塔梯度观测风速,对风机片区进行间接订正,可有效改善数值模式预报风速,15个片区类型下相关系数由0.18~0.72提高至0.67~0.91,误差绝对值由1.6~2.9 m·s-1降低至1.0~1.5 m·s-1。 相似文献
10.
相似集合预报方法在北京区域地面气温和风速预报中的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
相似集合是近年来提出的一种基于相似理论、大数据挖掘和集合预报思路的统计释用方法。文中首先介绍了相似集合的基本原理,并应用该方法对北京快速更新循环数值预报系统（BJ-RUC）v3.0预报地面要素开展了订正释用试验。结果表明,相似集合订正后,在0—36 h预报时段内,10 m风速的均方根误差降低44%,2 m气温的均方根误差降低22%,均方根误差均显著减小。对比测站预报误差的水平分布,相似集合方法的应用对于提升非城区站点的10 m风速预报、复杂地形区域的2 m气温预报具有更为明显的效果。相同预报因子的相似集合和支持向量机方法对模式10 m风速和2 m气温预报均具有显著且相似的订正效果,但相似集合方法具有计算资源需求较少、不需要大量人工干预的优势。相似集合方法形成的集合较好地模拟了模式平均误差的增长情况,集合离散度与集合平均均方根误差表现出理想的统计一致性,即相似集合方法在形成确定性预报的同时,还能够提供预报要素的不确定性或概率信息。因此,相似集合方法在模式预报订正及释用方面具有广阔的应用前景。 相似文献
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基于华南地区自动站逐小时观测资料, 采用传统站点评分、邻域法等评估华南区域高分辨率数值模式(包括GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式和GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式)对降水、地面温度和风场等要素的预报能力。结果表明: GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式的降水预报技巧优于GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式, 模式预报以正偏差为主。对于不同起报时间的预报, 00时(世界时, 下同)起报的预报效果优于12时。GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式的TS评分是GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式的两倍以上, 对不同降水阈值的评分均较高。分数技巧评分(FSS)显示GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式6 h累计降水预报在0.1 mm、1 mm及5 mm以上的降水均可达到最低预报技巧尺度, 对所检验降水对象的空间位置把握能力更好。2 m气温和10 m风速检验结果表明两个模式均能较好把握广东省温度的分布特征, GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式对2 m气温预报结果优于GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式, 预报绝对误差更小; 两个模式对风速的预报整体偏强, 预报偏差在1~4 m/s之间, 但相比之下GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式在风场预报上表现更好。GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式的2 m气温和10 m风速预报偏差随降水过程存在明显波动, 强降水过后温度预报整体偏低, 风速预报偏强, 在模式产品订正、使用等需要考虑模式对主要天气系统的预报情况。总的来说, GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式的预报产品具有较好的参考价值。 相似文献
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基于机器学习的数值天气预报风速订正研究 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
对风速进行准确预测是精细化天气预报服务(如风能发电、冬季奥运会赛场条件保障等)的重要环节。本文基于三种机器学习算法(LASSO回归、随机森林和深度学习),对数值天气预报模式ECMWF预测的华北地区近地面10 m风速进行订正。首先利用LASSO回归算法提取对10 m风速有重要影响的气象要素特征集,将其作为三种机器学习算法的输入,建立相应模型对ECMWF预测的风速进行订正。用提取后的气象要素特征集建模有助于减少计算量和存储开销,并减小模型的复杂性,从而提高模型的泛化能力。将订正结果与传统订正方法模式输出统计(model output statistics,MOS)得到的订正结果进行对比。结果表明,三种机器学习算法的订正效果均好于MOS方法,显示了机器学习方法在改善局地精准气象预报方面的潜力。 相似文献
15.
为了研究风阵性特征,尤其是在受台风影响时湍流特征对安全开发利用风能资源的影响,利用江苏沿海5座测风塔2009年6月—2012年11月的梯度风观测数据,分析了近地层风阵性基本特征,并筛选了7个对江苏产生较大影响的台风,包括罕见的正面登陆台风达维（1210）,分析台风影响下风阵性特征。研究发现:江苏沿海地区低层的风脉动性比高层强,10 m高度的年平均阵风系数和湍流强度分别为1.50和0.20;海陆分布明显影响风阵性,离岸风的湍流强度明显大于向岸风;当风速等级小于6级时,风阵性随风速增大而一致性减小,之后则稳定少变;在台风中心附近,受风速、风向快速多变的影响,湍流强度和阵风系数均远大于台风外围和没有台风影响的情况,湍流强度和阵风系数在30~50 m高度之间增加,在6~7级风时出现风阵性的局部峰值区。 相似文献
16.
The Influence of Thermal Effects on the Wind Speed Profile of the Coastal Marine Boundary Layer 总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1
Bernhard Lange Søren Larsen Jørgen Højstrup Rebecca Barthelmie 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2004,112(3):587-617
The wind speed profile in a coastal marine environment is investigated with observations from the measurement program Rødsand, where meteorological data are collected with a 50 m high mast in the Danish Baltic Sea, about 11 km from the coast. When compared with the standard Monin—Obukhov theory the measured wind speed increase between 10 m and 50 m height is found to be systematically larger than predicted for stable and near-neutral conditions. The data indicate that the deviation is smaller for short (10–20 km) distances to the coast than for larger (>30 km) distances. The theory of the planetary boundary layer with an inversion lid offers a qualitative explanation for these findings. When warm air is advected over colder water, a capping inversion typically develops. The air below is constantly cooled by the water and gradually develops into a well-mixed layer with near-neutral stratification. Typical examples as well as scatter plots of the data are consistent with this explanation. The deviation of measured and predicted wind speed profiles is shown to be correlated with the estimated height and strength of the inversion layer. 相似文献
17.
Observations of nocturnal slope flow have been made at two sites with quite different topography and vegetation. In both cases, continuous measurements of wind and temperature profiles were made from towers that extended through the depth of the katabatic flow. At the simpler site, which approximates a tilted plane, three towers were located at different distances down the slope to measure the development of slope flow with downslope distance.Slope flow depth, downslope wind speed, and temperature deficit are found to change with downslope distance at rates that are consistent with the predictions of Manins and Sawford's (1979) layer-averaged model of slope flow, while measured entrainment rates are found to be comparable to those predicted by Ellison and Turner's (1959) laboratory experiments. The depth of slope flow is found to be roughly 0.05 times the vertical drop from the top of the slope, a relationship that also follows from combining Manins and Sawford's model and Ellison and Turner's laboratory data. Analysis of the wind spectra and a simple numerical model suggest that the turbulent kinetic energy profiles in slope flow are dependent on the speed and direction of the ambient wind and can differ substantially from those found over flat terrain. At the more complex of the two measurement sites, the occurrence of slope flow was found to correlate well with a dimensionless number 5 that is a function of the ridge-top wind speed and of the strength and depth of the inversion and that is an estimate of the ratio of the buoyancy deficit to the external horizontal pressure gradient.Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830 相似文献
18.
利用2014—2018年辽宁省探空资料分析了水平风速的垂直风廓线分布特征。用2座代表性测风塔逐时梯度风观测分析了采用不同高度组合方案计算出风切变指数的月、日变化特征, 分别用月、小时、年风切变指数推算高层风速和风功率密度, 并与实测对比。结果表明: 沈阳相较于大连地区风速随高度增加较快, 180 m高度以上风速基本保持不变, 而大连因其纬度低且靠近海洋, 300 m以下风速均匀上升。在非复杂地形情况下, 距地面10 m高度以上间隔一定高度设立4层风观测, 基本可以满足近地层风资源评估需求。受太阳辐射、下垫面、海陆热力性质差异等影响, 辽宁省风切变指数日变化特征比月变化更显著。利用小时风切变指数推算高层风速和风功率密度的方案优于采用月、年风切变指数方案。风切变指数日变化越显著, 采用逐时风切变指数推算方案越优于其他计算方案。 相似文献
19.
A regression-based downscaling technique was applied to monthly mean surface wind observations from stations throughout western Canada as well as from buoys in the Northeast Pacific Ocean over the period 1979–2006. A predictor set was developed from principal component analysis of the three wind components at 500?hPa and mean sea-level pressure taken from the NCEP Reanalysis II. Building on the results of a companion paper, Curry et al. (Clim Dyn 2011, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1173-3), the downscaling was applied to both wind speed and wind components, in an effort to evaluate the utility of each type of predictand. Cross-validated prediction skill varied strongly with season, with autumn and summer displaying the highest and lowest skill, respectively. In most cases wind components were predicted with better skill than wind speeds. The predictive ability of wind components was found to be strongly related to their orientation. Wind components with the best predictions were often oriented along topographically significant features such as constricted valleys, mountain ranges or ocean channels. This influence of directionality on predictive ability is most prominent during autumn and winter at inland sites with complex topography. Stations in regions with relatively flat terrain (where topographic steering is minimal) exhibit inter-station consistencies including region-wide seasonal shifts in the direction of the best predicted wind component. The conclusion that wind components can be skillfully predicted only over a limited range of directions at most stations limits the scope of statistically downscaled wind speed predictions. It seems likely that such limitations apply to other regions of complex terrain as well. 相似文献
20.
多普勒声雷达测风与直接测量仪器的观测比较 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
文中对多普勒声雷达测风和325 m铁塔上风速、风向仪及超声风速仪的测量值进行了观测比较。结果表明,当信噪比大于1时,两种方法测量的平均风速、风向的相关较好,风速、风向廓线较为接近;声雷达测量的垂直风速平均值和均方根差比超声风速仪的测量值略偏大。这与国外进行的观测比较结果一致。 需要指出,声雷达和直接测量仪器的观测比较中存在一定差异,特别是对比每一次的观测值就可以看出,在某些情况下还存在明显差异。进一步分析声雷达测风产生偏差的原因,对误差做出合理的订正是十分必要的。 相似文献