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1.
Progress in Researches on Ensemble Forecasting of Extreme Weather Based on Numerical Models 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Under the background of climate change, extreme weather events (e.g., heavy rainfall, heat wave, and cold damage) in China have been occurring more frequently with an increasing trend of induced meteorological disasters. Therefore, it is of great importance to carry out research on forecasting of extreme weather. This paper systematically reviewed the primary methodology of extreme weather forecast, current status in development of ensemble weather forecasting based on numerical models and their applications to forecast of extreme weather, as well as progress in approaches for correcting ensemble probabilistic forecast. Nowadays, the forecasting of extreme weather has been generally dominated by methodology using dynamical models. That is to say, the dynamical forecasting methods based on ensemble probabilistic forecast information have become prevailing in current operational extreme weather forecast worldwide. It can be clearly found that the current major directions of research and development in this field are the application of ensemble forecasts based on numerical models to forecasting of extreme weather, and its improvement through bias correction of ensemble probabilistic forecast. Based on a relatively comprehensive review in this paper, some suggestions with respect to development of extreme weather forecast in future were further given in terms of the issues of how to propose effective approaches on improving level of identification and forecasting of extreme events. 相似文献
2.
Ship-based sea ice observation data (concentrations,ice thickness,topography and overlying snow cover) were collected from Middle Weddell Sea to Prydz Bay,Antarctic during the period of 4 to 17 Jan 2003.Antarctic ice chart of first week of Jan 2003 was derived from National Ice Center (NIC).The compared analysis of sea ice concentrations and thickness distributions were conducted though in situ data and NIC chart.Results from sea ice concentration-analysis indicated the presence of large-scale open water between 2000 and 4100 km along transit route resulted from sea ice drifting.We describe the existence of mostly smooth first-year sea ice in study region ranged between 30 and 120 era.We also display the derived overlying snow coverage.Our results reveal the strong correspondence between ship-based observations and remotely sensed ice charts whatever in ice concentrations and ice thickness distributions. 相似文献
3.
A parametric hurricane wind model has been developed based on the asymmetric Holland-type vortex model. The model creates
a two-dimensional surface wind field based on the National Hurricane Center forecast (or observed) hurricane wind and track
data. Three improvements have been made to retain consistency between the input parameters and the model output and to better
resolve the asymmetric structure of the hurricane. First, in determination of the shape parameter B, the Coriolis effect is included and the range restriction is removed. It is found that ignoring the Coriolis effect can
lead to an error greater than 20% in the maximum wind speed for weak but large tropical cyclones. Second, the effect of the
translational velocity of a hurricane is excluded from the input of specified wind speeds before applying the Holland-type
vortex to avoid exaggeration of the wind asymmetry. The translational velocity is added back in at the very end of the procedure.
Third, a new method has been introduced to develop a weighted composite wind field that makes full use of all wind parameters,
not just the largest available specified wind speed and its 4-quadrant radii. An idealized hurricane and two historical Gulf
of Mexico hurricanes have been used to test the model. It is found that the modified parametric model leads to better agreement
with field observation compared with the results from the unmodified model. This will result in better predictions of hurricane
waves and storm surges. 相似文献
4.
由于海洋环境条件的复杂性、多变性及随机性,设计标准的选取是决定工程结构安全度、造价、效益及合理型式的主要因素。传统的设计标准,无法考虑海洋环境条件的随机组合,往往过高估计环境条件设计标准,造成不必要的浪费,甚至使具有开发前景的油田失去开采价值。以实测和后报资料为基础,使用多维联合概率的随机模拟技术,结合不同结构型式的极值响应及不同资料样本的选择方法,提出了海洋工程结构物上的风、浪、流、潮联合荷载及相应的联合概率水平问题,用以作为海洋工程环境荷载设计标准。 相似文献
5.
遥感图像异常识别是遥感应用领域一个颇受关注的研究课题,在军事目标识别和自然环境保护等许多领域都有潜在应用价值。不妨假设遥感图像背景像素分布于随空间位置缓慢变化的一系列高斯超椭球体内,异常像素则分布于超椭球体之外。在这种假设前提下,首先应用Weiszfeld方法估算遥感图像中一系列高斯超椭球体的重心和波段协方差矩阵;然后,计算各像素到对应的超椭球体重心的马氏距离,并用直方图法确定马氏距离的异常下限;最后,把马氏距离高于异常下限的像素作为异常像素识别出来。在GDAL遥感图像数据输入输出函数库基础上,用VC++语言开发了遥感图像像素级异常识别的算法程序;用美国亚特兰大TM图像进行了方法的应用实验研究。结果表明,该方法对遥感图像中的局部异常具有很好的识别效果。 相似文献
6.
在渤海,中尺度模式预报的风速通常比实际风速低得多.利用1990-2001年渤海不同观测站的风场、温度场资料,按季节、风向对海、陆风速统计分析,得到海陆风速的对比值,同时对造成海陆风速差异的原因进行动力、热力等分析.结果表明:海、陆风速在不同的天气系统以及动力和热力方面都存在明显差异.据此渤海风速场推算模式进行了改进,既考虑动力摩擦的作用,也考虑热力差异引起的海陆风增幅作用,改进的渤海风场推算模式有了很大的提高.因此,应用改进后的渤海风速场推算模式,对中尺度数值预报的风速场进行订正,使预报的风速明显提高,更加接近实际情况. 相似文献
7.
遥感数据专题分类不确定性评价研究：进展、问题与展望 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7
从遥感数据中提取专题类别信息是当前遥感数据最主要的应用领域之一。由于遥感分类专题信息广泛应用于各种领域，其数据质量受到越来越多的关注。不确定性是评价分类专题类别数据质量最主要的方面。回顾了遥感数据专题分类不确定性评价方法的历史，总结了当前各种评价方法及其指标体系，将这些方法归结为基于误差矩阵的方法、模糊评价方法、像元尺度上的不确定性评价方法和其它方法四大类。对每一类不确定性评价方法及其指标体系的优点和缺点进行了分析和总结，指出从理论方法研究方面，需要优先发展独立于分类方法的像元尺度上的遥感分类不确定性评价模型与指标体系，以及统一的遥感数据分类不确定性评价模型体系研究；在应用研究方面，需要加强优化空间采样设计和不确定性评价过程标准化研究。 相似文献
8.
Defining the surface hydrological parameters represents a crucial factor for the sustainable development purposes. In areas with heavy precipitation and rugged topography, these parameters control the occurrence of some natural hazards, from which the flash flood gets the most attention. Traditional methods for the assessment of the surface hydrological parameters are costly, time-consuming and provide information for limited geographic extent. On the other hand, remotely sensed data provide a cost-effective, rapid and wide aerial coverage with adequate accuracy. Geospatial analysis of these remotely sensed data provides a suitable and effective method for the reconnaissance determination of the surface hydrological parameters. In this work, digital elevation models, Landsat 8 satellite images as well as digital maps of soil and land use for Kyushu Island were acquired and analyzed using geographic information system. Surface hydrological parameters were determined in terms of watershed boundaries, soil moisture, initial abstraction as well as flash flood potentiality. Results of this research show a great correlation with historical flash flood events that occurred in the island. The northern parts of the island are subjected to the threat of flash floods. A follow-up is recommended in some areas on the island. As a conclusion, the geospatial analysis performs an accurate reconnaissance method for hydrological analysis at regional scale, which in turn guides the detailed field observation saving time and cost.
相似文献9.
A review of applying second-generation wavelets for noise removal from remote sensing data 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ladan Ebadi Helmi Z. M. Shafri Shattri B. Mansor Ravshan Ashurov 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(6):2679-2690
The processing of remotely sensed data includes compression, noise reduction, classification, feature extraction, change detection and any improvement associated with the problems at hand. In the literature, wavelet methods have been widely used for analysing remote sensing images and signals. The second-generation of wavelets, which is designed based on a method called the lifting scheme, is almost a new version of wavelets, and its application in the remote sensing field is fresh. Although first-generation wavelets have been proven to offer effective techniques for processing remotely sensed data, second-generation wavelets are more efficient in some respects, as will be discussed later. The aim of this review paper is to examine all existing studies in the literature related to applying second-generation wavelets for denoising remote sensing data. However, to make a better understanding of the application of wavelet-based denoising methods for remote sensing data, some studies that apply first-generation wavelets are also presented. In the part of hyperspectral data, there is a focus on noise removal from vegetation spectrum. 相似文献
10.
Sea‐level surges caused by sirocco wind are frequent in the northern Adriatic. Added to the local spring‐tide amplitude of about 40 cm, they should not be disregarded when estimating the elevation of maritime archaeological structures in relation to their function at the time of their construction. Based on the statistical analysis of the frequency and distribution of hourly sea‐level surges at Trieste, Rovinj, and Venice, realistic estimates of functional heights for sea‐level reconstructions to be applied to archaeological remains of coastal structures, e.g., fish tanks, appear to be approximately 120–130 cm near Trieste and around 95–105 cm in the Rovinj area. These exceed the value of 60 cm recently proposed by a group of archaeologists. Such underestimation tends to lower by about half a meter (in relation to certain previous estimates) sea‐level position in Roman times along the coast of Istria. The sea level during this period should be derived from more accurate sea‐level indicators such as marine biological remains preserved on archaeological structures. 相似文献
11.
An attempt is made in this study to develop a model to forecast the cyclonic depressions leading to cyclonic storms over North Indian Ocean (NIO) with 3 days lead time. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model is developed for the purpose and the forecast quality of the model is compared with other neural network and multiple linear regression models to assess the forecast skill and performances of the MLP model. The input matrix of the model is prepared with the data of cloud coverage, cloud top temperature, cloud top pressure, cloud optical depth, cloud water path collected from remotely sensed moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS), and sea surface temperature. The input data are collected 3 days before the cyclogenesis over NIO. The target output is the central pressure, pressure drop, wind speed, and sea surface temperature associated with cyclogenesis over NIO. The models are trained with the data and records from 1998 to 2008. The result of the study reveals that the forecast error with MLP model varies between 0 and 7.2 % for target outputs. The errors with MLP are less than radial basis function network, generalized regression neural network, linear neural network where the errors vary between 0 and 8.4 %, 0.3 and 24.8 %, and 0.3 and 32.4 %, respectively. The forecast with conventional statistical multiple linear regression model, on the other hand, generates error values between 15.9 and 32.4 %. The performances of the models are validated for the cyclonic storms of 2009, 2010, and 2011. The forecast errors with MLP model during validation are also observed to be minimum. 相似文献
12.
Judith Wolf 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(2):241-260
Wind waves and elevated water levels together can cause flooding in low-lying coastal areas, where the water level may be
a combination of mean sea level, tides and surges generated by storm events. In areas with a wide continental shelf a travelling
external surge may combine with the locally generated surge and waves and there can be significant interaction between the
propagation of the tide and surge. Wave height at the coast is controlled largely by water depth. So the effect of tides and
surges on waves must also be considered, while waves contribute to the total water level by means of wave setup through radiation
stress. These processes are well understood and accurately predicted by models, assuming good bathymetry and wind forcing
is available. Other interactions between surges and waves include the processes of surface wind-stress and bottom friction
as well as depth and current refraction of waves by surge water levels and currents, and some of the details of these processes
are still not well understood. The recent coastal flooding in Myanmar (May 2008) in the Irrawaddy River Delta is an example
of the severity of such events, with a surge of over 3 m exacerbated by heavy precipitation. Here, we review the existing
capability for combined modelling of tides, surges and waves, their interactions and the development of coupled models. 相似文献
13.
高精度预测模型及其构建方法——以脉状金矿为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
采用“场理论—场结构—场分析—场模拟”方法构建了具有时空结构框架,能反映局部异常精细结构特征,可对多元预测信息进行有效提取和集约 化分析的高精度预测找矿模型。该模型是对致矿异 常结构、矿化结构和信息结构的耦合分析与关键预测信息提取及优化相匹配和深化后的最佳 表达方式。其技术关键是预测对象的地质、地球物理、地球化学异常场和成矿场的精细结构 分析以及矿体空间定位产状模式的建立。 相似文献
14.
Guleid Artan Hussein Gadain Jodie L. Smith Kwabena Asante Christina J. Bandaragoda James P. Verdin 《Natural Hazards》2007,43(2):167-185
Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazard on Earth. Flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated
with floods. Satellites offer effective and economical means for calculating areal rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged regions.
However, satellite-based rainfall estimates have had limited use in flood forecasting and hydrologic stream flow modeling
because the rainfall estimates were considered to be unreliable. In this study we present the calibration and validation results
from a spatially distributed hydrologic model driven by daily satellite-based estimates of rainfall for sub-basins of the
Nile and Mekong Rivers. The results demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed precipitation data for hydrologic modeling
when the hydrologic model is calibrated with such data. However, the remotely sensed rainfall estimates cannot be used confidently
with hydrologic models that are calibrated with rain gauge measured rainfall, unless the model is recalibrated.
G. Artan, J. L. Smith and K. Asante – work performed under USGS contract 03CRCN0001. 相似文献
15.
Return period estimates of extreme sea level along the east coast of India from numerical simulations 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Estimates of return periods of extreme sea level events along the coast are useful for impact assessment. In this study, a
vertically integrated 2D model was developed for the simulation of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. The bathymetry for the
model was derived from an improved ETOPO-5 data set, which was prepared in our earlier work. The meteorological forcing for
the model was obtained from the cyclone model of Holland using the data available for 136 low-pressure systems that occurred
during 1974–2000 in the Bay of Bengal. The simulated total sea level and the surge component were obtained for each event.
The simulated peak levels showed good agreement with the observations available at few stations. The annual maxima of sea
levels, extracted from the simulations, were fitted with Gumbel distribution using r-largest annual maxima method to estimate the 5- and 50-year return periods of extreme events at 26 stations along the east
coast of India. The return periods estimated from simulated sea levels showed good agreement with those obtained from observations.
The 5- and 50-year return levels of total sea level along the east coast of India show a considerable increase from south
to north, with the 50-year return total sea levels being as high as 6.9 and 8.7 m at stations along the north eastern coast
such as Sagar Island and Chandipur, respectively. The high return levels are expected at these stations as the cyclones developed
in the Bay of Bengal generally move north or north-west, producing extreme events in the northern part, and moreover, these
stations are characterized by high tidal ranges. However, at some regions in the southern part such as Surya Lanka and Machilipatnam,
though 50-year return levels of total sea level are not very high (2.98 and 2.97 m, respectively) because of the relatively
lower tidal ranges, high return levels of surges (0.84 and 0.57 m, respectively) are found. In addition to the role of shallow
depths (5.0 and 6.1 m, respectively) at the two stations, the high return levels of surges are attributed to the effect of
geometrical configuration at Surya Lanka and width (100 km) and orientation of continental shelf at Machilipatnam. 相似文献
16.
利用WRF3D-Var同化多普勒雷达反演风场试验研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
为了将C波段雷达风场资料更好地应用于数值预报模式中,利用两步变分法反演多普勒雷达风场资料,并处理成标准的常规探空资料,以WRF模式及其三维变分同化系统为平台,针对2013年6月19日发生在天水的一次强暴雨过程进行同化雷达反演风的试验研究.试验结果表明:同化雷达反演风场后,对降水预报的改进能维持12h,尤其同化雷达反演风场后3~9h效果非常显著;0~3h作用不是很明显;9~12h预报具有一定的正作用.另外,循环同化比同化一次效果好,但并不是同化次数越多越好.因此,同化C波段雷达反演风场后,对降水预报具有一定的正作用. 相似文献
17.
Wang Hui Wan Liying Qin Yinghao Wang Yi Yang Xuelian Liu Yang Xing Jianyong Chen Li Wang Zhanggui Zhang Tianyu Liu Guimei Yang Qinghua Wu Xiangyu Liu Qinyan Wang Dongxiao 《地球科学进展》2016,31(10):1090-1104
Chinese Global operational Oceanography Forecasting System (CGOFS) is configured in three levels of nested grids from global ocean, open ocean to offshore. This global operational oceanography forecasting system architecture is firstly bulit in China by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC). It has been put into operational forecasting at NMEFC, providing real-time forecasting of multi-scale ocean current, temperature, salinity, wave, sea surface wind, etc. All the ocean forecasting products are released in many ways and made available through the online, realizing full-range coverage in resolution from hundreds kilometer to several kilometer. The CGOFS includes 8 subsystems: global sea-surface wind numerical forecasting subsystem, global ocean circulation numerical forecasting subsystem, global ocean wave numerical forecasting subsystem, global tide and tidal current forecasting subsystem, Indian Ocean marine environment numerical forecasting subsystem, polar sea ice numerical forecasting subsystem, refined marine environment numerical forecasting for China’s surrounding waters,and integration management subsystem for operational support service of the CGOFS. Operational applications of the CGOFS are closely connected with China’s economic-social development and military security needs. For example, the CGOFS palys a crucial role in environmental forecasting for Chinese research vessel and icebreaker Xuelong, MH370 Searching, submersible “Jiaolong” exploration and nuclear contaminant transport from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, providing important scientific support for developing an ocean power, protecting national maritime rights, ensuring marine safety and coping with ocean problems in emergency. 相似文献
18.
Numerical Modelling of Storm Surge in the Head Bay of Bengal Using Location Specific Model 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
The head Bay of Bengal region, which covers part of Orissa and west Bengal in India as well as Bangladesh, is one of the most vulnerable regions of extreme sea levels associated with severe tropical cyclones which cause extensive damage. There has been extensive loss of life and property due to extreme events in this region. Shallow nature of the Bay, presence of Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna deltaic system and high tidal range are responsible for storm surges in this region. In view of this a location specific fine resolution numerical modelis developed for the simulation of storm surges. To represent mostof the islands and rivers in this region a 3km grid resolution is adopted. Several numerical experiments are carried out to compute the storm surges using the wind stress forcings representative of 1974, 1985, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1994 and 1999 cyclones, which crossed this region. The model computed surges are in good agreement with the available observations/estimates. 相似文献
19.
Among the semi-enclosed basins of the world ocean, the South China Sea (SCS) is unique in its configuration as it lies under the main southwest-northeast pathway of the seasonal monsoons. The northeast (NE) monsoon (November–February) and southwest (SW) monsoon (June–August) dominate the large-scale sea level dynamics of the SCS. Sunda Shelf at the southwest part of SCS tends to amplify Sea Level Anomalies (SLAs) generated by winds over the sea. The entire region, bounded by Gulf of Thailand on the north, Karimata Strait on the south, east cost of Peninsular Malaysia on the west, and break of Sunda Shelf on the east, could experience positive or negative SLAs depending on the wind direction and speed. Strong sea level surges during NE monsoon, if coincide with spring tide, usually lead to coastal floods in the region. To understand the phenomena, we analyzed the wind-driven sea level anomalies focusing on Singapore Strait (SS), laying at the most southwest point of the region. An analysis of Tanjong Pagar tide gauge data in the SS, as well as satellite altimetry and reanalyzed wind in the region, reveals that the wind over central part of SCS is arguably the most important factor determining the observed variability of SLAs at hourly to monthly scales. Climatological SLAs in SS are found to be positive, and of the order of 30 cm during NE monsoon, but negative, and of the order of 20 cm during SW monsoon. The largest anomalies are associated with intensified winds during NE monsoon, with historical highs exceeding 50 cm. At the hourly and daily time-scales, SLA magnitude is correlated with the NE wind speed over central part of SCS with an average time lag of 36–42 h. An exact solution is derived by approximating the elongated SCS shape with one-dimensional two-step channel. The solution is utilized to derive simple model connecting SLAs in SS with the wind speeds over central part of SCS. Due to delay of sea level anomaly in SS with respect to the remote source at SCS, the simplified solutions could be used for storm surge forecast, with a lead time exceeding 1 day. 相似文献
20.
研究聚类分析新方法一直是统计学和机器学习研究领域普遍关注的课题。针对概率距离聚类算法不能解决非线性可分聚类问题的缺欠,笔者应用核函数理论将该模型拓展成为一种能够解决非线性可分聚类问题的统计模型,称为核概率距离聚类分析模型。研制出一种应用新模型进行遥感图像非监督分类研究的实施策略和可行算法;在GDAL遥感图像数据输入输出函数库基础上,用VC++语言开发了遥感图像核概率距离聚类分析算法程序;用ERDAS软件提供的一幅7波段491像素×440像素大小的TM图像进行新方法分类应用实验研究。对比了新模型和其原版本的TM遥感图像非监督分类效果,结果表明新模型的非监督分类效果优于原有的分类模型。 相似文献