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Abstract

The combination of detailed sample data with less detailed but fully enumerated marginal subtotals is the focus of a wide range of research. In this article we advocate careful modeling of sample data, followed by Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF). The modeling aims to estimate accurately the interaction or odds ratios of complex tables, which is information not contained in the marginal subtotals. IPF ensures consistency with the subtotals. We advance this work in three practical ways. First, we show that detailed small-area estimates of both counts and proportional distributions usually gain accuracy by combining data for larger areas containing the small areas, and we illustrate the multilevel framework to achieve these estimates. Second, we find that a general classification or socioeconomic typology of the small areas is even more associated with the within-area interactions than is membership of the larger area. Third, we show how the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) can be used for IPF in any number of dimensions and with any structure of constraining marginal subtotals. Throughout, we use an example taken from the 1991 U.K. Census. These data allow us to evaluate various methods combining 100 percent tabulations and the Samples of Anonymised Records.

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利用1996~2001年国内旅游客流月份分布数据,分析了三亚、北海、普陀山等海滨(岛)型旅游地和黄山、九华山等山岳型旅游地国内客流季节性特征,从旅游客流季节分布曲线看,三亚、九华山分别表现为“三峰两谷”和“双峰双谷”型,北海、普陀山、黄山均表现为“三峰三谷”型;从旅游客流集中指数R值看,黄山的R值最大,近年平均为5.7,三亚的R值最小 ,近年平均为1.3,并且黄山、三亚的R值变化幅度较小,具有一定的稳定性。北海、普陀山、九华山的R值介于黄山、三亚之间,近年来总体呈下降趋势,比较分析5处旅游地客流季节变化成因,发现它们均受自然季节性因素和社会季节性因素的影响,前者主要包括气候的舒适性、降水等,对于海滨(岛)型旅游地而言,海水温度、热带气旋活动影响也很重要;后者主要包括法定节假目、居民出游习惯等。对对富有宗教特色的旅游地,宗教节庆活动也是重要的影响因素。分析认为,自然季节性因素是造成以自然吸引物或自然-文化吸引物为物为特征的旅游地客流季节变化的主导因素,社会季节性因素只有在自然季节性因素形成的旅游季节变化的基础上产生叠加作用。  相似文献   

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Sedimentary deposits from the Smith Canyon dune field, south-central Columbia Basin, Washington, U.S.A. document climatically-influenced Late Pleistocene and Holocene aeolian and fluvial deposition in a region impacted by glacial outburst floods and tephra falls. The depositional history is summarized by five environmentally distinctive and climatically sensitive sedimentary units (temporal limits estimated): Unit 1 (c. 15·5–8 ka), pedogenically altered glacial outburst flood and minor aeolian silt and clay; Unit 2 (c. 8–6·9 ka), fluvial and minor aeolian sand; Unit 3 (c. 6·9–6·8 ka), flood-induced fluvial sand with gravel-sized tephra clasts; Unit 4 (c. 6·8–3·9 ka), aeolian dune sand; Unit 5 (c. 3·9 ka to present), pedogenically altered, stabilized dune sand. Estimated age ranges are based on stratigraphic position, tephrochronology, and correlation with temporally constrained strata from elsewhere in the region.  相似文献   

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