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1.
A NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF THE QINGHAIXIZANG PLATEAU ON THE MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER PROCESSES OF THE SUMMER MONSOON RAIN IN EAST ASIA 
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下载免费PDF全文 By employing the T42L9 spectral model introduced from ECMWF and utilizing the FGGE-III_b datacovering the period from 14 June to 19 June 1979,the effects of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the medium-range weather processes of the rain during the onset period of the summer monsoon in Eastern Asia in1979 were studied numerically.According to the initial field of 12GMT 14 June 1979,five-day numericalexperiments with or without the orographic effects were carried out respectively.The results show that thePlateau can influence the precipitation significantly during the summer monsoon season.Although the summermonsoon is the result of the seasonal variations of the global circulation and the heating difference betweenland and sea,it is influenced evidently by the Plateau in medium-range processes.There are very complexinteractions between the mountain and diabatic heating effects so that both of them should be consideredcorrectly in the general circulation models in order to describe the nature of the atmosphere reliably. 相似文献
2.
土壤湿度是影响天气和气候非常重要的因子之一,但目前针对土壤湿度可预报性的研究报道相对较少。该文在对BCC_CSM模式进行了适合的陆面初始化的条件下,设计了两组在中国东部地区采用不同土壤湿度初值的回报试验研究该地区土壤湿度的可预报性及初值对其可预报性影响问题。试验结果表明:BCC_CSM模式在真实的外场强迫下可以模拟出相对合理的土壤湿度;土壤湿度的可预报性在表层约为3候,随着深度的增加,土壤湿度的可预报性持续时间增加,在中层预报性甚至能达到月尺度以上;初值对于土壤湿度的预报存在影响,在表层影响时间约为2~3候,影响时间随着深度增加;浅层土壤湿度受降水的影响较大,浅层土壤湿度变化滞后降水变化约1~2 d,中层土壤湿度变化与降水变化存在5 d左右的滞后关系。 相似文献
3.
The state-of-the-art WRF model is used to investigate the impact of the antecedent soil moisture on subsequent summer precipitation during the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) period. The control experiment with realistic soil moisture condition can well reproduce the seasonal pattern from low- to high- atmosphere, as well as the spatial distribution of precipitation belt in East China. Compared with the control experiment, the sensitivity experiment in which the initial soil moisture is reduced generates more precipitation along the East China Sea, and less rainfall over both Central and South China. This suggests that the effect of initial soil moisture on monsoonal precipitation in East China is regionally dependent. The influence on precipitation is mostly attributed to the change in precipitation from mid July to late August. The initial soil moisture condition plays a role in changing the seasonal pattern and atmospheric circulation due to the weak heating and geopotential gradient, leading to a reduction in southeasterly flow and moisture flux from South China Sea. The changes between DRY and CTL runs result in reduced southerly wind over the ocean (south of ˜25 °N) and enhanced northerly wind over the land (north of ∼25 °N). The temperature and associated circulation changes due to drier initial soil moisture anomaly result in reduced southerly winds over East China, and therefore a weakened EASM system. The averaged moisture flux decreases significantly over Central China but increases along the East China Sea. In addition, the drier soil moisture perturbation exerts an effect on suppressing (enhancing) vertical velocity over Central China (along the East China Sea), thus leading to more (less) cloud water and rain water. Therefore, the influence of soil moisture exerts an opposite impact on surface precipitation between these two regions, with more and less accumulation rainfall in Central China and along the East China Sea, respectively. 相似文献
4.
Xiaolei FU Zhongbo YU Ying TANG Yongjian DING Haishen LYU Baoqing ZHANG Xiaolei JIANG Qin JU 《Journal of Meteorological Research》2019,(2):190-205
Soil moisture is an important variable in the fields of hydrology, meteorology, and agriculture, and has been used for numerous applications and forecasts. Accurate soil moisture predictions on both a large scale and local scale for different soil depths are needed. In this study, a soil moisture assimilation and prediction based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF) and Simple Biosphere Model(SiB2) have been performed in Meilin watershed, eastern China, to evaluate the initial state values with different assimilation frequencies and precipitation influences on soil moisture predictions. The assimilated results at the end of the assimilation period with different assimilation frequencies were set to be the initial values for the prediction period. The measured precipitation, randomly generated precipitation,and zero precipitation were used to force the land surface model in the prediction period. Ten cases were considered based on the initial value and precipitation. The results indicate that, for the summer prediction period with the deeper water table depth, the assimilation results with different assimilation frequencies influence soil moisture predictions significantly. The higher assimilation frequency gives better soil moisture predictions for a long lead-time. The soil moisture predictions are affected by precipitation within the prediction period. For a short lead-time, the soil moisture predictions are better for the case with precipitation, but for a long lead-time, they are better without precipitation. For the winter prediction period with a lower water table depth, there are better soil moisture predictions for the whole prediction period. Unlike the summer prediction period, the soil moisture predictions of winter prediction period are not significantly influenced by precipitation. Overall, it is shown that soil moisture assimilations improve its predictions. 相似文献
5.
基于土壤湿度融合分析产品及气象观测资料,分析了青藏高原及其典型区域的土壤湿度分布特征以及影响因素.结果表明：青藏高原土壤湿度与高原降水季节有较好的对应关系,降水量多的季节对应大的土壤湿度,反之亦然,即夏季土壤湿度最大,春季和秋季次之,冬季最小;高原外围土壤相对较湿,中部较干,夏季土壤高湿度区从藏东南向西北、塔里木盆地向藏东北扩展,冬季土壤高湿度区向藏东南和塔里木盆地收缩;土壤湿度垂直层次呈现出浅层和深层低、中间层高的特点,从浅层到深层土壤湿度的变化幅度逐渐减小;高原典型区域土壤湿度逐日变化规律与高原区域平均的土壤湿度时间演变接近一致,降水量的多少和湿润区、半干旱区土壤湿度高低值有较好的对应关系,湿润区垂直梯度大,干旱区和半干旱区垂直梯度小;蒸发量、风速、气温以及植被状况均会影响到土壤湿度的分布特征. 相似文献
6.
增长模繁殖法在华南暴雨中期集合预报中的应用 总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10
采用增长模繁殖法和全球谱模式T106L19对2005年6月发生在华南的暴雨过程进行了中期集合预报试验。结果表明：相对于单一的确定性预报,集合预报能给出更多的预报信息;各成员的降水预报、降水概率预报等丰富的预报产品能够给暴雨预报提供更有价值的信息,减少漏报率,对低压槽线和副高脊线等关键环流系统的预报,集合预报结果更为接近实况。 相似文献
7.
陆面特征量初始扰动的敏感性及集合预报试验 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
文章利用中尺度模式Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF)3.2.1版本及National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)分析资料,研究了陆面变量(土壤湿度、土壤温度)和陆面参数(植被覆盖率)初始场随机扰动对长江中下游暴雨预报的影响并进行了集合预报试验。试验结果表明,短期暴雨过程对陆面变量(参数)扰动是敏感的;陆面变量(参数)初始场扰动影响降水的时间尺度小于10 h甚至可以小于6 h。从影响机理上来看,陆面变量(参数)扰动首先改变地表的潜热通量和感热通量,而地表通量的改变会通过陆气相互作用对局地大气的温、压、湿、风产生较大影响,从而对暴雨的强度和落区产生较大影响。集合预报结果表明,利用陆面变量(参数)扰动制作集合预报,预报的集合平均结果要好于控制预报的结果,且比集合成员稳定可靠,降水概率预报可以提供一些有用的信息,对预报强降水有一定的指示意义。在初值集合预报中,以这些参数或变量的扰动来引进集合成员是十分有意义的。 相似文献
8.
模式的起转过程(spin-up)是指在非平衡初值或扰动的条件下,模式进行调整而达到平衡态的过程.以黑河实验(HEIFE) 1991年6月20日到7月20日张掖站观测的地表能量通量和土壤温度资料为基础,用大量数值实验研究了RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System)陆面子模式起转过程所需的时间范围.数值实验中,为细致考虑土壤初始参数对此过程的影响,共设计了40余组不同的初始土壤水、热参数.通过模拟结果分析,把RAMS陆面模式起转过程的表现归纳为4大类,并说明了这个过程的持续时间可能因为土壤初始参数的不同而产生较大的差异,其范围可能为数小时至一周以上.在判断RAMS模拟地表、低空物理量时,土壤含水量是判断模式是否达到平衡态的重要因子. 相似文献
9.
利用观测资料及模式结果探讨了EP/CP El Ni?o事件对华南前汛期（4—6月）降水异常的影响。结果发现,EP和CP型相关的华南前汛期降水异常分布之间存在明显月际差异,表现为4、5月EP（CP）型相关的降水异常以偏多（少）为主;6月则相反,EP（CP）型的降水呈负（正）异常分布。分析表明,EP型相关的4、5月偏强的副热带高压与850 hPa上西北太平洋反气旋异常相配合,有利于水汽从海洋向陆地输送,且两广地区水汽辐合,降水异常偏多;而6月相关的500 hPa异常场上对应偏强的东亚大槽,不利于水汽输送,且广东地区处于水汽辐散区,对应降水偏少。CP型相关的4、5月对应500 hPa上东亚大槽偏强,不利于水汽往陆地输送,且华南为水汽辐散,降水偏少;6月的500 hPa上呈现“+-+”的东亚-太平洋遥相关波列（EAP）型,华南地区为明显的水汽辐合,降水偏多。GFDL模式较好地再现了EP /CP型的4、5月降水异常分布及大气环流形势,但是对6月的模拟存在一定偏差。 相似文献
10.
地表非均匀性对区域平均水分通量参数化的影响 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：3
次网格尺度地表非均匀性对于网格区平均通量具有重要影响。若将网格区视为均一地表 ,并不能真实描述地 气通量交换过程 ,且可造成很大误差。文中从理论上证明 ,区域平均水分通量的变化率可分解为两部分 :第一部分为区域水分通量的算术平均变化率 ;第二部分为非均匀性所引起的水分通量变化率扰动 ,它与区域内土壤水分空间分布的变差系数有关。数值试验表明 ,地表土壤水分的水平空间变差系数集中反映了区域内土壤水分分布的非均匀程度 ,不同土壤对同样的非均匀程度其敏感性是不同的。变差系数愈大 ,非均匀性愈强 ,在相同的土壤水分平均值下 ,不同土壤类型对地表非均匀程度的敏感性并不相同。例如沙土和粘土受非均匀性的影响就可相差数十倍。 相似文献
11.
Effects of subgrid heterogeneities in soil infiltration capacity and precipitation on regional climate: a sensitivity study 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
X.-M. Zeng M. Zhao B.-K. Su J.-P. Tang Y.-Q. Zheng Y.-J. Zhang J. Chen 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2002,73(3-4):207-221
Summary ?One of the most pronounced features of the land surface is its heterogeneity. In order to further understand land-atmosphere
interactions and improve climate modeling it is very important to investigate effects of subgrid scale heterogeneities, especially
hydrological-process heterogeneities. In this paper, after the construction and sensitivity tests of a hydrological model
(VXM), which accounts for precipitation heterogeneity (PH) and infiltration heterogeneity (IH), we incorporated VXM into the
NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) regional climate model RegCM2 and thus obtained the augmented regional climate
model (hereafter, ARCM). By using 3-month (May–July) observational data of 1991 Meiyu season, we conducted numerical experiments
with ARCM, analyzed the sensitivities, and found that: (1) The regional climate and surface hydrology are very sensitive to
IH as well as PH, i.e., the simulations for the surface fluxes, soil temperature, soil moisture, precipitation and surface
runoff can be greatly affected by those heterogeneities. (2) ARCM can effectively improve the simulation of hydrological processes,
i.e., it can greatly enhance the surface runoff ratio (i.e., the ratio of surface runoff to precipitation), which is consistent
with observations over humid areas in China. (3) It seems that the IH influence on the surface climate is larger than the
PH influence. (4) The modeled climate is sensitive to the VXM parameters. For example, it is significantly modified after
the surface impermeable fraction has been accounted for, suggesting some features of aridification.
Received June 18, 2001; revised February 14, 2002; accepted March 3, 2002 相似文献
12.
Soil moisture retrieval from satellite images and its application to heavy rainfall simulation in eastern China 总被引：7，自引：4，他引：3
The soil water index (SWI) from satellite remote sensing and the observational soil moisture from agricultural meteorological stations in eastern China are used to retrieve soil moisture. The analysis of correlation coefficient (CORR), root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and bias (BIAS) shows that the retrieved soil moisture is convincible and close to the observation. The method can overcome the difficulties in soil moisture observation on a large scale and the retrieved soil moisture may reflect the distribution of the real soil moisture objectively. The retrieved soil moisture is used as an initial scheme to replace initial conditions of soil moisture (NCEP) in the model MM5V3 to simulate the heavy rainfall in 1998. Three heavy rainfall processes during 13–14 June, 18–22 June, and 21–26 July 1998 in the Yangtze River valley are analyzed. The first two processes show that the intensity and location of simulated precipitation from SWI are better than those from NCEP and closer to the observed values. The simulated heavy rainfall for 21–26 July shows that the update of soil moisture initial conditions can improve the model’s performance. The relationship between soil moisture and rainfall may explain that the stronger rainfall intensity for SWI in the Yangtze River valley is the result of the greater simulated soil moisture from SWI prior to the heavy rainfall date than that from NCEP, and leads to the decline of temperature in the corresponding area in the heavy rainfall days. Detailed analysis of the heavy rainfall on 13–14 June shows that both land-atmosphere interactions and atmospheric circulation were responsible for the heavy rainfall, and it shows how the SWI simulation improves the simulation. The development of mesoscale systems plays an important role in the simulation regarding the change of initial soil moisture for SWI. 相似文献
13.
Interactions between soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), atmospheric moisture fluxes and precipitation are complex. It is difficult to attribute the variations of one variable to another. In this study, we investigate the influence of atmospheric moisture fluxes and land surface soil moisture on local precipitation, with a focus on the southern United States (U.S.), a region with a strong humidity gradient and intense moisture fluxes. Experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that the variation of moisture flux convergence (MFC) is more important than that of soil moisture for precipitation variation over the southern U.S. Further analyses decompose the precipitation change into several contributing factors and show that MFC affects precipitation both directly through changing moisture inflow (wet areas) and indirectly by changing the precipitation efficiency (transitional zones). Soil moisture affects precipitation mainly by changing the precipitation efficiency, and secondly through direct surface ET contribution. The greatest soil moisture effects are over transitional zones. MFC is more important for the probability of heavier rainfall; soil moisture has much weaker impact on rainfall probability and its roles are similar for the probability of intermediate-to-heavy rainfall (>10 mm day?1). Although MFC is more important than soil moisture for precipitation over most regions, the impact of soil moisture could be large over certain transitional regions. At the submonthly time scale, the African Sahel appears to be the only major region where soil moisture has a greater impact than MFC on precipitation. This study provides guidance to understanding and further investigation of the roles of local land surface processes and large-scale circulations on precipitation. 相似文献
14.
在对南海夏季风的爆发及中南半岛陆面过程的可能影响进行了诊断分析的基础上,应用MM5/NOAHLSM模式,研究了中南半岛陆气相互作用对2004年南海夏季风爆发过程的可能影响。结果发现:在南海夏季风爆发前,中南半岛南海地区低层气温差确实出现低值,甚至负值;尽管短期内中南半岛土壤湿度和降水的变化没有引起季风爆发日期的改变,但对季风爆发的强度有影响。土壤湿度和降水变化引起的干异常可导致地表感热通量的增大和地表温度的升高,致使中南半岛与南海之间低层的温差异常(负温差)减小,季风爆发强度减弱;不同的是,湿异常可引起季风爆发强度增强。这一结果说明,在南海夏季风爆发前期,中南半岛上空对流活动和降水异常及其引起的土壤湿度的异常变化在一定程度上会影响到季风爆发的过程。文章还比较了不同温湿地表条件下低层大气状态的差异和地表能量、水分平衡过程的不同,分析了陆气相互作用对季风活动产生影响的物理机制。 相似文献
15.
用区域气候模式 (RegCM_NCC) 对江淮流域地区春季初始土壤湿度异常导致的区域气候效应进行了数值模拟分析, 结果表明:土壤湿度异常变化对区域降水的影响非常显著, 土壤湿度的正异常使得异常区域内降水增大, 地面空气增湿、蒸发加大, 与此相应, 地表气温迅速降低, 土壤湿度的负异常有与之相反的结果, 这种区域气候响应是通过改变地表辐射平衡及地-气系统能通量而实现的; 区域土壤湿度异常对短期气候的影响在一个月之内较明显, 它的影响可持续至以后的几个月, 但强度逐渐减弱; 区域土壤湿度异常的气候响应不仅仅局限于异常区域内部, 而且可以通过次级环流影响到其他区域的降水、温度等变化。 相似文献
16.
通过对3种接地装置接地电阻的持续观测, 分析了降水、温度对接地电阻的影响, 结果发现: 接地电阻具有明显的季节变化特征, 汛期(4—9月)降水量增加, 温度也逐渐升高, 接地电阻呈现下降趋势, 在9月之后, 随着降水的减少及温度的下降, 接地电阻逐渐升高, 此过程一直持续到翌年的2月; 接地电阻的变化率与接地体类型及尺寸大小密切相关; 降水量 < 20 mm的降水过程对接地电阻的影响较小; 当降水量偏多, 土壤含水量处于较高水平时, 多余的降水并不会使接地电阻出现明显的下降, 此时期温度对接地电阻的下降起着关键作用; 当长期干旱时, 土壤含水量偏低, 此时期较强的降水会引起接地电阻出现明显的下降, 而温度的影响相对不明显。 相似文献
17.
利用WRF模式与4个陆面过程的耦合,对2010年6月19—20日的暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,并分析陆面过程对暴雨强度和范围的敏感性。结果显示：WRF耦合4个陆面过程模拟的雨带和实况分布一致,均为东西向的雨带形状,且均预报出与实况资料相似的强降水中心。在无陆面方案情况下,强降水中心的位置、范围、强度等都发生明显变化。另外地表径流预报量和降水趋势表现一致,由于土壤含水量趋于饱和,多余的降水分配给地表径流,这种剧增的地表径流也是洪水暴涨、水位上升的重要原因。在较湿的土壤状况下,由于净辐射增长,有利于产生厚度更小的边界层高度以及更大的地表向上潜热通量,这也是导致本次降水过程异常增幅的一个重要原因。 相似文献
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A coupled model of RAMS3b(Regional Atmospheric Modeling System,Version 3b)andLSPM(a land surface process model),in which some basic hydrological processes such asprecipitation,evapotranspiration.surface runoff,infiltration and bottom drainage are included,has been established.With the coupled model,we have simulated the response of soil to the severeweather process which caused the disastrous flood in north italy during 4-7.November,1994,simultaneously compared with the observation and the original RAMS3b,which has a soil andvegetation parameterization scheme(hereafter,SVP)emphasizing on the surface energy fluxes,while some hydrological processes in the soil are not described clearly.The results show that the differences between coupling LSPM and SVP exist mainly in theresponse of soil to the precipitation.The soil in the SVP never saturates under the strong input ofprecipitation,while the newly coupled model seems better,the soil has been saturated for one dayor more and causes strong surface runoff,which constitutes the flood.Further sensitivityexperiments show that the surface hydrological processes are very sensitive to the initial soilmoisture and soil type when we compared the results with a relatively dry case and sandy soil.The coupled model has potentiality for simulation on the interaction between regional climateand land surface hydrological processes,and the regional water resources research concerningdesertification,drought and flood. 相似文献
20.
A coupled model of RAMS3b(Regional Atmospheric Modeling System,Version 3b) and LSPM(a land surface process model),in which some basic hydrological processes such as precipitation,evapotranspiration.surface runoff,infiltration and bottom drainage are included,has been established.With the coupled model,we have simulated the response of soil to the sever eweather process which caused the disastrous flood in north italy during 4-7.November,1994,simultaneously compared with the observation and the original RAMS3b,which has a soil and vegetation parameterization scheme(hereafter,SVP) emphasizing on the surface energy fluxes,while some hydrological processes in the soil are not described clearly.The results show that the differences between coupling LSPM and SVP exist mainly in the response of soil to the precipitation.The soil in the SVP never saturates under the strong input of precipitation,while the newly coupled model seems better,the soil has been saturated for one day or more and causes strong surface runoff,which constitutes the flood.Further sensitivity experiments show that the surface hydrological processes are very sensitive to the initial soil moisture and soil type when we compared the results with a relatively dry case and sandy soil.The coupled model has potentiality for simulation on the interaction between regional climate and land surface hydrological processes,and the regional water resources research concerning desertification,drought and flood. 相似文献