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1.
We have analyzed the daily record of sunspot areas during the current cycle 22 looking for the short-term periodicity of around 155 days which was present during some previous solar cycles. Two different methods have been used to compute the power spectra and the results indicate that such periodicity has been absent during the current solar cycle, which confirms the results obtained by other authors who used flares or flare-related data.However, we have found that, during some intervals of time, a periodicity close to 86 days is statistically significant. A similar periodicity was found by Landscheit (1986) in energetic X-ray flares, between 1970 and 1982 (second and first half of solar cycles 20 and 21, respectively), and by Bai (1992b) for important solar flares during solar cycle 20. 相似文献
2.
We study solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) during the deep solar minimum, including the declining phase, of solar cycle 23 and compare the results of this unusual period with the results obtained during similar phases of the previous solar cycles 20, 21, and 22. These periods consist of two epochs each of negative and positive polarities of the heliospheric magnetic field from the north polar region of the Sun. In addition to cosmic-ray data, we utilize simultaneous solar and interplanetary plasma/field data including the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We study the relation between simultaneous variations in cosmic ray intensity and solar/interplanetary parameters during the declining and the minimum phases of cycle 23. We compare these relations with those obtained for the same phases in the three previous solar cycles. We observe certain peculiar features in cosmic ray modulation during the minimum of solar cycle 23 including the record high GCR intensity. We find, during this unusual minimum, that the correlation of GCR intensity is poor with sunspot number (correlation coefficient R=?0.41), better with interplanetary magnetic field (R=?0.66), still better with solar wind velocity (R=?0.80) and much better with the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet (R=?0.92). In our view, it is not the diffusion or the drift alone, but the solar wind convection that is the most likely additional effect responsible for the record high GCR intensity observed during the deep minimum of solar cycle 23. 相似文献
3.
Taeil Bai 《Solar physics》2006,234(2):409-419
In the declining phase of the current solar cycle (23), a large number of major flares were produced. In this cycle, the monthly
sunspot number continuously remained below 100 since October 2002. However, during four epochs since then, flare activity
became very high. Compared to this, each of cycles 21 and 22 produced only one epoch of high activity in the declining phase.
In the declining phase of cycle 20, similarly to this cycle, there were four epochs of high flare activity. During 2003 and
2004, the distribution of flare sizes measured in GOES classes was much harder (i.e., proportionately more energetic flares) than during the maximum years. Such pronounced hardening of the size distribution
was not observed in the previous cycles. It is of theoretical interest to understand why some cycles are very active in the
declining phase, and the high level of activity in the declining phase has practical implications for planning solar observations
and forecasting space weather. 相似文献
4.
C. O. Lee J. G. Luhmann X. P. Zhao Y. Liu P. Riley C. N. Arge C. T. Russell I. de Pater 《Solar physics》2009,256(1-2):345-363
The current solar cycle minimum seems to have unusual properties that appear to be related to weak solar polar magnetic fields. We investigate signatures of this unusual polar field in the ecliptic near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) for the STEREO period of observations. Using 1 AU OMNI data, we find that for the current solar cycle declining phase to minimum period the peak of the distribution for the values of the ecliptic IMF magnitude is lower compared to a similar phase of the previous solar cycle. We investigate the sources of these weak fields. Our results suggest that they are related to the solar wind stream structure, which is enhanced by the weak polar fields. The direct role of the solar field is therefore complicated by this effect, which redistributes the solar magnetic flux at 1 AU nonuniformly at low to mid heliolatitudes. 相似文献
5.
In this work the galactic cosmic ray modulation in relation to solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters during the years 1996??C?2010 covering solar cycle 23 and the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is studied. A new perspective of this contribution is that cosmic ray data with a rigidity of 10 GV at the top of the atmosphere obtained from many ground-based neutron monitors were used. The proposed empirical relation gave much better results than those in previous works concerning the hysteresis effect. The proposed models obtained from a combination of solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters give a standard deviation <?10?% for all the cases. The correlation coefficient between the cosmic ray variations of 10?GV and the sunspot number reached a value of r=?0.89 with a time lag of 13.6±0.4 months. The best reproduction of the cosmic ray intensity is obtained by taking into account solar and interplanetary indices such as sunspot number, interplanetary magnetic field, CME index, and heliospheric current sheet tilt. The standard deviation between the observed and calculated values is about 7.15?% for all of solar cycle 23; it also works very well during the different phases of the cycle. Moreover, the use of the cosmic ray intensity of 10?GV during the long minimum period between cycles 23 and 24 is of special interest and is discussed in terms of cosmic ray intensity modulation. 相似文献
6.
Cosmic-ray intensity data for the period 1964–1985 covering two solar cycles are used to investigate the solar activity behaviour in relation to cosmic-ray modulation. A detailed statistical analysis of them shows a large time-lag of about one and half years between cosmic-ray intensity and solar activity (as indicated by sunspot number, solar flares and high-speed solar-wind streams) during the 21st solar cycle appearing for a first time. This lag indicates the very high activity level of this solar cycle estimating the size of the modulating region to the unambiguous value of 180 AU. The account of the solar-wind speed in the 11-year variation significantly decreases the modulation region of cosmic-rays to the value of 40 AU.A comparison with the behaviour of the previous solar cycle establishes a distinction between even and odd solar cycles. This is explained in terms of different contributions of drift, convection and diffusion to the whole modulation mechanism during even and odd solar cycles. 相似文献
7.
An explanation is suggested for the north-south asymmetry of the polar magnetic field reversal in the current cycle of solar activity. The contribution of the Babcock-Leighton mechanism to the poloidal field generation is estimated using sunspot data for the current activity cycle. Estimations are performed separately for the northern and southern hemispheres. The contribution of the northern hemisphere exceeded considerably that of the southern hemisphere during the initial stage of the cycle. This is the probable reason for the earlier reversal of the northern polar field. The estimated contributions of the Babcock-Leighton mechanism are considerably smaller than similar estimations for the previous activity cycles. A relatively weak (<1 G) large-scale polar field can be expected for the next activity minimum. 相似文献
8.
P. Lantos 《Solar physics》2006,236(1):199-205
As a precursor for predicting the maximum amplitude of the coming solar cycle, the skewness of the previous cycle proposed
by Ramaswamy (1977) is revisited. The reliability of the prediction method is improved by separating odd and even cycles.
A first method is proposed on the basis of calculated skewness. In that case, the prediction is available at the end of the
previous cycle. A possibility to anticipate the availability of the skewness by about one year is pointed out. A second method,
adding prediction of the skewness itself is studied. The statistical reliability is lower than in the first case, but the
prediction of a cycle maximum is available at the maximum of the previous cycle. 相似文献
9.
Flux-transport type solar dynamos have achieved considerable success in correctly simulating many solar cycle features, and are now being used for prediction of solar cycle timing and amplitude. We first define flux-transport dynamos and demonstrate how they work. The essential added ingredient in this class of models is meridional circulation, which governs the dynamo period and also plays a crucial role in determining the Sun’s memory about its past magnetic fields. We show that flux-transport dynamo models can explain many key features of solar cycles. Then we show that a predictive tool can be built from this class of dynamo that can be used to predict mean solar cycle features by assimilating magnetic field data from previous cycles. 相似文献
10.
Anomalies in the solar magnetic fields of various scales are studied. The polar magnetic field strength is shown to have decreased steadily during the last three solar cycles. This is because the increase in the dipole magnetic moment observed from 1915 to 1976 has changed into a decrease in the last three cycles. At the same time, the medium scale magnetic fields (like those of isolated coronal holes) have been unusually strong in the last cycle. As a result, the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet is still about 30°. The large effective contribution from the medium scale fields to the total energy of the large-scale fields is also confirmed by our calculations of the effective multipolarity index. The aa-index at the cycle minima is correlated with the height of the succeeding maxima. The set of data considered may be indicative of the possible approach of a sequence of low solar cycles. 相似文献
11.
K. M. Hiremath 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2008,314(1-3):45-49
In the previous study (Hiremath, Astron. Astrophys. 452:591, 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755–1996), long-term
amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these physical parameters of the previous 22 solar cycles
and by an autoregressive model, we predict the amplitude and period of the present cycle 23 and future fifteen solar cycles. The period of present solar
cycle 23 is estimated to be 11.73 years and it is expected that onset of next sunspot activity cycle 24 might starts during
the period 2008.57±0.17 (i.e., around May–September 2008). The predicted period and amplitude of the present cycle 23 are almost similar to the period
and amplitude of the observed cycle. With these encouraging results, we also predict the profiles of future 15 solar cycles.
Important predictions are: (i) the period and amplitude of the cycle 24 are 9.34 years and 110 (±11), (ii) the period and
amplitude of the cycle 25 are 12.49 years and 110 (±11), (iii) during the cycles 26 (2030–2042 AD), 27 (2042–2054 AD), 34
(2118–2127 AD), 37 (2152–2163 AD) and 38 (2163–2176 AD), the sun might experience a very high sunspot activity, (iv) the sun
might also experience a very low (around 60) sunspot activity during cycle 31 (2089–2100 AD) and, (v) length of the solar
cycles vary from 8.65 years for the cycle 33 to maximum of 13.07 years for the cycle 35. 相似文献
12.
Prediction of the exact date of the maximum of the 11-year solar activity cycle is a matter of disagreement among solar scientists
and of some importance to satellite operators, space-system designers, etc. Most predictions are based on physical conditions
occurring at or before the solar-cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. However, another indicator of the timing
of the maximum occurs early in the rise phase of the solar cycle. A study of the variation over two previous solar cycles
of coronal emission features in Fe xiv from the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak has shown that, prior to solar
maximum, emission features appear above 50° latitude in both hemispheres and begin to move towards the poles at a rate of
8° to 11° of latitude per year. This motion is maintained for a period of 3 or 4 years, at which time the emission features
disappear near the poles. This phenomenon has been referred to as the `Rush to the Poles'. These observations show that the
maximum of solar activity, as seen in the sunspot number, occurs approximately 19 ± 2 months before the features reach the
poles. In 1997, Fe xiv emission features appeared near 55° latitude, and began to move towards the poles. Using the above
historical data from cycles 21 and 22, we will see how the use of progressively more data from cycle 23 affects the prediction
of the date of solar maximum. The principal conclusion is that the date of solar maximum for cycle 23 could be predicted to
within 6 months as early as 1997. For solar cycle 24, when this phenomenon first becomes apparent later this decade, the average
parameters for cycles 21–23 can be used to predict the date of solar maximum. 相似文献
13.
V. K. Verma 《Solar physics》1988,114(1):185-188
The present paper investigates the north-south asymmetry for major flares (solar cycles 19 and 20), type II radio bursts (solar cycles 19,20 and 21), white light flares (solar cycle 19,20 and 21), and gamma ray bursts, hard X-ray bursts and coronal mass ejections (solar cycle 21). The results are compared with the found asymmetry in favour of the northern hemisphere during solar cycles 19 and 20 in favour of the southern hemisphere during solar cycle 21. 相似文献
14.
An updated catalog is created of 303 well-defined high-speed solar wind streams that occurred in the time period 2009?–?2016. These streams are identified from solar and interplanetary measurements obtained from the OMNIWeb database as well as from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) database. This time interval covers the deep minimum observed between the last two Solar Cycles 23 and 24, as well as the ascending, the maximum, and part of the descending phases of the current Solar Cycle 24. The main properties of solar-wind high-speed streams, such as their maximum velocity, their duration, and their possible sources are analyzed in detail. We discuss the relative importance of all those parameters of high-speed solar wind streams and especially of their sources in terms of the different phases of the current cycle. We carry out a comparison between the characteristic parameters of high-speed solar wind streams in the present solar cycle with those of previous solar cycles to understand the dependence of their long-term variation on the cycle phase. Moreover, the present study investigates the varied phenomenology related to the magnetic interactions between these streams and the Earth’s magnetosphere. These interactions can initiate geomagnetic disturbances resulting in geomagnetic storms at Earth that may have impact on technology and endanger human activity and health. 相似文献
15.
V. N. Ishkov 《Solar System Research》2005,39(6):453-461
The main properties of the current cycle match almost completely those of average-magnitude solar cycles, and some of the features of the current cycle may indicate a change in the generation mode of magnetic fields in the solar convection zone. In this case, the Sun enters a period of intermediate and weak cycles of solar activity (SA) in terms of the Wolf numbers, which may last for 50 to 100 years. This change may result in further pollution of the Earth's environment (near-Earth space) due to the unfavorable regime of removing cosmic garbage from low-Earth orbit, the substantial increase of the radiation background in near space (the weakening of interplanetary magnetic fields will result in an increased concentration of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere), and other, possibly unfavorable, consequences. The main development stages of the 23rd solar-activity cycle are the following: the minimum of the 22nd solar cycle, May 1996 (W*=8.0); the beginning of the growth phase, September 1997; the maximum of the smoothed relative sunspot number, April, 2000; the global polarity reversal of the general solar magnetic field, July to December 2000; the secondary maximum of the relative sunspot number, November 2001; the maximum of the 10.7-cm radio flux, February 2002; the phase of the cycle maximum, October 1999 to June 2002; the beginning of the decrease phase, July 2002; the most powerful flare events of the current cycle, October to November 2003; and the likely point of minimum of the current SA cycle, November to December 2006. 相似文献
16.
What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity
over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio
flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic
rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar
activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot
record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric
with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude
cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres
remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active
latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift
toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant
secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak
evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics
indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following
cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023. 相似文献
17.
Long-term data on the evolution of the parameters of motion of 15 artificial satellites of the Earth in orbits with minimal heights of 400–1100 km were used to study the density variations in the upper atmosphere at minimums of four cycles of solar activity. It was found that the density at these heights considered increased by about 7% at the minimum of solar cycle 20 as compared to solar cycle 19. Later, the density fell rather linearly at the minimums of cycles 21 and 22. The statistical processing of the data for solar cycles 20–22 demonstrated that the density decreased by 4.6% over ten years and by 9.9% over 20 years. Analyzing the density variations during the four cycles of solar activity, we found that the long-term decrease in density observed at the minimums of cycles 20–22 is caused mainly by specific variations of the solar activity parameters (namely, the solar radio flux and the level of geomagnetic disturbance).__________Translated from Astronomicheskii Vestnik, Vol. 39, No. 2, 2005, pp. 177–183.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Volkov, Suevalov. 相似文献
18.
B. P. Tritakis 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1982,82(2):463-471
There are strong indications that successive 11-year cycles they belong to the same 22-year cycle aren't independent. However, indications for interaction between successive 11-year cycles they don't belong to the same 22-year cycle are weak but not negligible.The evolution of a certain 11-year cycle seems to depend on some basic parameters they characterize the configuration of the previous cycle. This dependency can provide us a simple way of estimating solar activity elements one 11-year cycle in advance. 相似文献
19.
Intermediate-term periodicities in solar activity 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The presence of intermediate-term periodicities in solar activity, at approximately 323 and 540 days, has been claimed by different authors. In this paper, we have performed a search for them in the historical records of two main indices of solar activity, namely, the daily sunspot areas (cycles 12–21) and the daily Zürich sunspot number (cycles 6–21). Two different methods to compute power spectra have been used, one of them being especially appropriate to deal with gapped time series. The results obtained for the periodicity near 323 days indicate that it has only been present in cycle 21, while in previous cycles no significant evidence for it has been found. On the other hand, a significant periodicity at 350 days is found in sunspot areas and Zürich sunspot number during cycles 12–21 considered all together, also having been detected in some individual cycles. However, this last periodicity must be looked into with care due to the lack of confirmation for it coming from other features of solar activity. The periodicity around 540 days is found in cycles 12, 14, and 17 in sunspot areas, while during cycles 18 and 19 it is present, with a very high significance, in sunspot areas and Zürich sunspot number. It also appears at 528 days in sunspot areas during cycles 12–21. On the other hand, it is important to note the coincidence between the asymmetry, favouring the northern hemisphere, of sunspot areas and solar flares during cycle 19, and the fact that the periodicity at 540 days was only present, with high significance, in that hemisphere during that solar cycle. 相似文献
20.
We have shown in previous papers that a close relationship exists between the evolution of polar coronal hole area, estimated from K-coronameter observations, and the Wolf sunspot number, with a time lag of about half a solar cycle. In this paper we study the same relationship, but with the total coronal hole area at the base of the corona as obtained from a potential field model of the coronal magnetic field, which provides a more complete series of about three solar cycles. We confirm the relationship for the two last cycles and find that the forward time shift in the coronal hole area for the best correlation with sunspot number is almost the same for cycles 21 and 22, and this shift is also the time between peaks in both series. We use this result to make an early prediction of the time and size of the sunspot maximum for solar cycle 23, and find that this should occur early in 2001 and have a magnitude of about 190, similar to that of the two previous sunspot cycles. 相似文献