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1.
Background
Developing countries that are willing to participate in the recently adopted (16th Session of the Conference of Parties (COP) in Cancun) mitigation mechanism of Reducing emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation - and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) - will have to establish a national forest monitoring system in order to assess anthropogenic forest-related greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks. Such a system should support the Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) requirement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the REDD+ mechanism is results-based. A national forest inventory (NFI) is one potential key component of such an MRV system. Following the Decision adopted during the 15th Session of the COP in Copenhagen, the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidance and Guidelines should be used as a basis for estimating anthropogenic forest-related greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks and changes in forest carbon stocks and area. 相似文献2.
The paper reviews a number of challenges associated with reducing degradation and its related emissions through national approaches
to REDD+ under UNFCCC policy. It proposes that in many countries, it may in the short run be easier to deal with the kinds
of degradation that result from locally driven community over-exploitation of forest for livelihoods, than from selective
logging or fire control. Such degradation is low-level, but chronic, and is experienced over very large forest areas. Community
forest management programmes tend to result not only in reduced degradation, but also in forest enhancement; moreover they
are often popular, and do not require major political shifts. In principle these approaches therefore offer a quick start
option for REDD+. Developing reference emissions levels for low-level locally driven degradation is difficult however given
that stock losses and gains are too small to be identified and measured using remote sensing, and that in most countries there
is little or no forest inventory data available. We therefore propose that forest management initiatives at the local level,
such as those promoted by community forest management programmes, should monitor, and be credited for, only the net increase
in carbon stock over the implementation period, as assessed by ground level surveys at the start and end of the period. This
would also resolve the problem of nesting (ensuring that all credits are accounted for against the national reference emission
level), since communities and others at the local level would be rewarded only for increased sequestration, while the national
reference emission level would deal only with reductions in emissions from deforestation and degradation. 相似文献
3.
Michael Huettner Rik Leemans Kasper Kok Johannes Ebeling 《Carbon balance and management》2009,4(1):4-12
Background
A mechanism for emission reductions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) is very likely to be included in a future climate agreement. The choice of REDD baseline methodologies will crucially influence the environmental and economic effectiveness of the climate regime. We compare three different historical baseline methods and one innovative dynamic model baseline approach to appraise their applicability under a future REDD policy framework using a weighted multi-criteria analysis. 相似文献4.
Background
Several previous global REDD+ cost studies have been conducted, demonstrating that payments for maintaining forest carbon stocks have significant potential to be a cost-effective mechanism for climate change mitigation. These studies have mostly followed highly aggregated top-down approaches without estimating the full range of REDD+ costs elements, thus underestimating the actual costs of REDD+. Based on three REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania, representing an area of 327,825 ha, this study explicitly adopts a bottom-up approach to data assessment. By estimating opportunity, implementation, transaction and institutional costs of REDD+ we develop a practical and replicable methodological framework to consistently assess REDD+ cost elements.Results
Based on historical land use change patterns, current region-specific economic conditions and carbon stocks, project-specific opportunity costs ranged between US$ -7.8 and 28.8 tCOxxxx for deforestation and forest degradation drivers such as agriculture, fuel wood production, unsustainable timber extraction and pasture expansion. The mean opportunity costs for the three projects ranged between US$ 10.1 ?C 12.5 tCO2. Implementation costs comprised between 89% and 95% of total project costs (excluding opportunity costs) ranging between US$ 4.5 - 12.2 tCO2 for a period of 30 years. Transaction costs for measurement, reporting, verification (MRV), and other carbon market related compliance costs comprised a minor share, between US$ 0.21 - 1.46 tCO2. Similarly, the institutional costs comprised around 1% of total REDD+ costs in a range of US$ 0.06 ?C 0.11 tCO2.Conclusions
The use of bottom-up approaches to estimate REDD+ economics by considering regional variations in economic conditions and carbon stocks has been shown to be an appropriate approach to provide policy and decision-makers robust economic information on REDD+. The assessment of opportunity costs is a crucial first step to provide information on the economic baseline situation of deforestation and forest degradation agents and on the economic incentives required to halt unsustainable land use. Since performance based REDD+ carbon payments decrease over time (as deforestation rates drop and for each saved ha of forest payments occur once), investments in REDD+ implementation have a crucial role in triggering sustainable land use systems by investing in the underlying assets and the generation of sustainable revenue streams to compensate for opportunity costs of land use change. With a potential increase in the land value due to effective REDD+ investments, expenditures in an enabling institutional environment for REDD+ policies are crucial to avoid higher deforestation pressure on natural forests. 相似文献5.
Michael Köhl Thomas Baldauf Daniel Plugge Joachim Krug 《Carbon balance and management》2009,4(1):10-10
Background
Following recent discussions, there is hope that a mechanism for reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) will be agreed by the Parties of the UNFCCC at their 15th meeting in Copenhagen in 2009 as an eligible action to prevent climate changes and global warming in post-2012 commitment periods. Countries introducing a REDD-regime in order to generate benefits need to implement sound monitoring and reporting systems and specify the associated uncertainties. The principle of conservativeness addresses the problem of estimation errors and requests the reporting of reliable minimum estimates (RME). Here the potential to generate benefits from applying a REDD-regime is proposed with reference to sampling and non-sampling errors that influence the reliability of estimated activity data and emission factors. 相似文献6.
M. S. R. Murthy Hammad Gilani Bhaskar Singh Karky Eklabya Sharma Marieke Sandker Upama Ashish Koju Shiva Khanal Mohan Poudel 《Carbon balance and management》2017,12(1):19
Background
The reliable monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) of carbon emissions and removals from the forest sector is an important part of the efforts on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). Forest-dependent local communities are engaged to contribute to MRV through community-based monitoring systems. The efficiency of such monitoring systems could be improved through the rational integration of the studies at permanent plots with the geospatial technologies. This article presents a case study of integrating community-based measurements at permanent plots at the foothills of central Nepal and biomass maps that were developed using GeoEye-1 and IKONS satellite images.Results
The use of very-high-resolution satellite-based tree cover parameters, including crown projected area (CPA), crown density and crown size classes improves salience, reliability and legitimacy of the community-based survey of 0.04% intensity at the lower cost than increasing intensity of the community-based survey to 0.14% level (2.5 USD/ha vs. 7.5 USD/ha).Conclusion
The proposed REDD+ MRV complementary system is the first of its kind and demonstrates the enhancement of information content, accuracy of reporting and reduction in cost. It also allows assessment of the efficacy of community-based forest management and extension to national scale.7.
Background
Countries willing to adopt a REDD regime need to establish a national Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system that provides information on forest carbon stocks and carbon stock changes. Due to the extensive areas covered by forests the information is generally obtained by sample based surveys. Most operational sampling approaches utilize a combination of earth-observation data and in-situ field assessments as data sources. 相似文献8.
Background
REDD+?is being questioned by the particular status of High Forest/Low Deforestation countries. Indeed, the formulation of reference levels is made difficult by the confrontation of low historical deforestation records with the forest transition theory on the one hand. On the other hand, those countries might formulate incredibly high deforestation scenarios to ensure large payments even in case of inaction.Results
Using a wide range of scenarios within the Guiana Shield, from methods involving basic assumptions made from past deforestation, to explicit modelling of deforestation using relevant socio-economic variables at the regional scale, we show that the most common methodologies predict huge increases in deforestation, unlikely to happen given the existing socio-economic situation. More importantly, it is unlikely that funds provided under most of these scenarios could compensate for the total cost of avoided deforestation in the region, including social and economic costs.Conclusion
This study suggests that a useful and efficient international mechanism should really focus on removing the underlying political and socio-economic forces of deforestation rather than on hypothetical result-based payments estimated from very questionable reference levels.9.
Giacomo Grassi Roberto Pilli Jo House Sandro Federici Werner A. Kurz 《Carbon balance and management》2018,13(1):8
Background
The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.Results
Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO2/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO2/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.Conclusions
Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.10.
Herold M Román-Cuesta RM Mollicone D Hirata Y Van Laake P Asner GP Souza C Skutsch M Avitabile V Macdicken K 《Carbon balance and management》2011,6(1):13
Measuring forest degradation and related forest carbon stock changes is more challenging than measuring deforestation since
degradation implies changes in the structure of the forest and does not entail a change in land use, making it less easily
detectable through remote sensing. Although we anticipate the use of the IPCC guidance under the United Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC), there is no one single method for monitoring forest degradation for the case of REDD+ policy.
In this review paper we highlight that the choice depends upon a number of factors including the type of degradation, available
historical data, capacities and resources, and the potentials and limitations of various measurement and monitoring approaches.
Current degradation rates can be measured through field data (i.e. multi-date national forest inventories and permanent sample
plot data, commercial forestry data sets, proxy data from domestic markets) and/or remote sensing data (i.e. direct mapping
of canopy and forest structural changes or indirect mapping through modelling approaches), with the combination of techniques
providing the best options. Developing countries frequently lack consistent historical field data for assessing past forest
degradation, and so must rely more on remote sensing approaches mixed with current field assessments of carbon stock changes.
Historical degradation estimates will have larger uncertainties as it will be difficult to determine their accuracy. However
improving monitoring capacities for systematic forest degradation estimates today will help reduce uncertainties even for
historical estimates. 相似文献
11.
Background
Malaysia typically suffers from frequent cloud cover, hindering spatially consistent reporting of deforestation and forest degradation, which limits the accurate reporting of carbon loss and CO2 emissions for reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) intervention. This study proposed an approach for accurate and consistent measurements of biomass carbon and CO2 emissions using a single L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensor system. A time-series analysis of aboveground biomass (AGB) using the PALSAR and PALSAR-2 systems addressed a number of critical questions that have not been previously answered. A series of PALSAR and PALSAR-2 mosaics over the years 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2015 and 2016 were used to (i) map the forest cover, (ii) quantify the rate of forest loss, (iii) establish prediction equations for AGB, (iv) quantify the changes of carbon stocks and (v) estimate CO2 emissions (and removal) in the dipterocarps forests of Peninsular Malaysia.Results
This study found that the annual rate of deforestation within inland forests in Peninsular Malaysia was 0.38% year?1 and subsequently caused a carbon loss of approximately 9 million Mg C year?1, which is equal to emissions of 33 million Mg CO2 year?1, within the ten-year observation period. Spatially explicit maps of AGB over the dipterocarps forests in the entire Peninsular Malaysia were produced. The RMSE associated with the AGB estimation was approximately 117 Mg ha?1, which is equal to an error of 29.3% and thus an accuracy of approximately 70.7%.Conclusion
The PALSAR and PALSAR-2 systems offer a great opportunity for providing consistent data acquisition, cloud-free images and wall-to-wall coverage for monitoring since at least the past decade. We recommend the proposed method and findings of this study be considered for MRV in REDD+?implementation in Malaysia.12.
Hugh Eva Silvia Carboni Frédéric Achard Nicolas Stach Laurent Durieux Jean-François Faure Danilo Mollicone 《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2010,65(2):191-197
A global systematic sampling scheme has been developed by the UN FAO and the EC TREES project to estimate rates of deforestation at global or continental levels at intervals of 5 to 10 years. This global scheme can be intensified to produce results at the national level. In this paper, using surrogate observations, we compare the deforestation estimates derived from these two levels of sampling intensities (one, the global, for the Brazilian Amazon the other, national, for French Guiana) to estimates derived from the official inventories. We also report the precisions that are achieved due to sampling errors and, in the case of French Guiana, compare such precision with the official inventory precision.We extract nine sample data sets from the official wall-to-wall deforestation map derived from satellite interpretations produced for the Brazilian Amazon for the year 2002 to 2003. This global sampling scheme estimate gives 2.81 million ha of deforestation (mean from nine simulated replicates) with a standard error of 0.10 million ha. This compares with the full population estimate from the wall-to-wall interpretations of 2.73 million ha deforested, which is within one standard error of our sampling test estimate. The relative difference between the mean estimate from sampling approach and the full population estimate is 3.1%, and the standard error represents 4.0% of the full population estimate.This global sampling is then intensified to a territorial level with a case study over French Guiana to estimate deforestation between the years 1990 and 2006. For the historical reference period, 1990, Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data were used. A coverage of SPOT-HRV imagery at 20 m × 20 m resolution acquired at the Cayenne receiving station in French Guiana was used for year 2006.Our estimates from the intensified global sampling scheme over French Guiana are compared with those produced by the national authority to report on deforestation rates under the Kyoto protocol rules for its overseas department. The latter estimates come from a sample of nearly 17,000 plots analyzed from same spatial imagery acquired between year 1990 and year 2006. This sampling scheme is derived from the traditional forest inventory methods carried out by IFN (Inventaire Forestier National). Our intensified global sampling scheme leads to an estimate of 96,650 ha deforested between 1990 and 2006, which is within the 95% confidence interval of the IFN sampling scheme, which gives an estimate of 91,722 ha, representing a relative difference from the IFN of 5.4%.These results demonstrate that the intensification of the global sampling scheme can provide forest area change estimates close to those achieved by official forest inventories (<6%), with precisions of between 4% and 7%, although we only estimate errors from sampling, not from the use of surrogate data.Such methods could be used by developing countries to demonstrate that they are fulfilling requirements for reducing emissions from deforestation in the framework of an REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries) mechanism under discussion within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Monitoring systems at national levels in tropical countries can also benefit from pan-tropical and regional observations, to ensure consistency between different national monitoring systems. 相似文献
13.
14.
15.
Douglas C Morton Marcio H Sales Carlos M SouzaJr Bronson Griscom 《Carbon balance and management》2011,6(1):18
Background
Historic carbon emissions are an important foundation for proposed efforts to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks through conservation and sustainable forest management (REDD+). The level of uncertainty in historic carbon emissions estimates is also critical for REDD+, since high uncertainties could limit climate benefits from credited mitigation actions. Here, we analyzed source data uncertainties based on the range of available deforestation, forest degradation, and forest carbon stock estimates for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 1990-2008. 相似文献16.
Full polarimetric PALSAR-based land cover monitoring in Cambodia for implementation of REDD policies
《International Journal of Digital Earth》2013,6(3):255-275
Abstract Forest cover monitoring plays an important role in the implementation of climate change mitigation policies such as Kyoto protocol and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD). In this study, we have monitored land cover using the PALSAR (Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar) full polarimetric data based on incoherent target decomposition. Supervised classification technique has been applied on Cloude–Pottier decomposition, Freeman–Durden three component, and Yamaguchi four component decomposition for accurate mapping of different types of land cover classes. Based on confusion matrix derived from the predicted and defined pixels, the evergreen and sparsely deciduous forests have shown high producer's accuracy by Freeman–Durden three component and Yamaguchi four component classifications. The overall accuracy of Maximum Likelihood Classification by Yamaguchi four component is 94.1% with 0.93 kappa coefficient as compared to the 90.3% with 0.88 kappa coefficient by Freeman–Durden three component and 89.7% with 0.88 kappa coefficient by Cloude–Pottier decomposition. High accuracy of classification in a forested area using full polarimetric PALSAR data may have been because of high penetration of L-band SAR. The content of this study could be useful for the forest cover mapping during cloudy days needed for proper implementation of REDD policies in Cambodia. 相似文献
17.
Characterization of periodic variations in the GPS satellite clocks 总被引：11，自引：7，他引：4
The clock products of the International Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) Service (IGS) are used to characterize
the timing performance of the GPS satellites. Using 5-min and 30-s observational samples and focusing only on the sub-daily
regime, approximate power-law stochastic processes are found. The Block IIA Rb and Cs clocks obey predominantly random walk
phase (or white frequency) noise processes. The Rb clocks are up to nearly an order of magnitude more stable and show a flicker
phase noise component over intervals shorter than about 100 s. Due to the onboard Time Keeping System in the newer Block IIR
and IIR-M satellites, their Rb clocks behave in a more complex way: as an apparent random walk phase process up to about 100 s
and then changing to flicker phase up to a few thousand seconds. Superposed on this random background, periodic signals have
been detected in all clock types at four harmonic frequencies, n × (2.0029 ± 0.0005) cycles per day (24 h coordinated universal time or UTC), for n = 1, 2, 3, and 4. The equivalent fundamental period is 11.9826 ± 0.0030 h, which surprisingly differs from the reported mean
GPS orbital period of 11.9659 ± 0.0007 h by 60 ± 11 s. We cannot account for this apparent discrepancy but note that a clear
relationship between the periodic signals and the orbital dynamics is evidenced for some satellites by modulations of the
spectral amplitudes with eclipse season. All four harmonics are much smaller for the IIR and IIR-M satellites than for the
older blocks. Awareness of the periodic variations can be used to improve the clock modeling, including for interpolation
of tabulated IGS products for higher-rate GPS positioning and for predictions in real-time applications. This is especially
true for high-accuracy uses, but could also benefit the standard GPS operational products. The observed stochastic properties
of each satellite clock type are used to estimate the growth of interpolation and prediction errors with time interval. 相似文献
18.
Hannes Böttcher Katja Eisbrenner Steffen Fritz Georg Kindermann Florian Kraxner Ian McCallum Michael Obersteiner 《Carbon balance and management》2009,4(1):7-14
Background
Negotiations on a future climate policy framework addressing Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) are ongoing. Regardless of how such a framework will be designed, many technical solutions of estimating forest cover and forest carbon stock change exist to support policy in monitoring and accounting. These technologies typically combine remotely sensed data with ground-based inventories. In this article we assess the costs of monitoring REDD based on available technologies and requirements associated with key elements of REDD policy. 相似文献19.
Oh Seok Kim 《Transactions in GIS》2010,14(5):631-654
With the increasing concerns in developing methodologies for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) projects, there is a need to understand the characteristics of existing Land‐Use/Cover Change (LUCC) modules. This research presents a modular framework for assessing predictive accuracy of business‐as‐usual deforestation in the future by comparing two existing approaches: GEOMOD Modeling (GM) and Land Change Modeler (LCM). The comparison uses data from a case study in Chiquitanía, Bolivia. Data from 1986 and 1994 are used to simulate land‐cover of 2000; the resulting maps are compared with an observed land‐cover map of 2000. GM and LCM simulate business‐as‐usual deforestations at the pixel level. The model structures of GM's linear extrapolation and LCM's Markov Chain are compared to review quantity of LUCC; and the model structures of GM's empirical frequency, LCM's logistic regression, and LCM's multilayer perceptron are compared to review (spatial) allocation of LUCC. Relative operating characteristics, figure of merit, and multiple resolution analysis are employed to assess predictive accuracy of multiple transition modeling. By design, GM lacks the potential to model multiple transitions, and the LCM's multilayer perceptron may produce different results for each simulation due to its stochastic element. Based on the model structure and predictive accuracy comparisons, the LCM seems more suitable than the GM for a REDD application. When a project is to employ a predictive method for its spatially explicit baseline setting, then it is highly recommended to use the proposed framework to assess accuracy of the baseline as part of a project design document. 相似文献
20.
Stavros A. Melachroinos Frank G. Lemoine Douglas S. Chinn Nikita P. Zelensky Joseph B. Nicholas Brian D. Beckley 《GPS Solutions》2014,18(4):497-507
We examine the impact of using seasonal and long-period time-variable gravity field (TVG) models on GPS orbit determination, through simulations from 1994 to 2012. The models of time-variable gravity that we test include the GRGS release RL02 GRACE-derived 10-day gravity field models up to degree and order 20 (grgs20x20), a 4 × 4 series of weekly coefficients using GGM03S as a base derived from SLR and DORIS tracking to 11 satellites (tvg4x4), and a harmonic fit to the above 4 × 4 SLR–DORIS time series (goco2s_fit2). These detailed models are compared to GPS orbit simulations using a reference model (stdtvg) based on the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) and International GNSS Service (IGS) repro1 standards. We find that the new TVG modeling produces significant along, cross-track orbit differences as well as annual, semi-annual, draconitic and long-period effects in the Helmert translation parameters (Tx, Ty, Tz) of the GPS orbits with magnitudes of several mm. We show that the simplistic TVG modeling approach used by all of the IGS Analysis Centers, which is based on the models provided by the IERS standards, becomes progressively less adequate following 2006 when compared to the seasonal and long-period TVG models. 相似文献