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1.
Long-wave energy emitted by the Earth-atmosphere into space is characterized by changes in power over time that always lag behind the changes in power of the absorbed solar radiation due to slow variation in enthalpy of the Earth-atmosphere system. Long-term variation of the solar energy radiation absorbed by the Earth remains uncompensated by the energy radiated into space over the interval of time that is determined by the thermal inertia. The basic state of the climate system is when the debit and credit sides in the Earth’s global annual mean energy budget (including the air and water envelopes) are almost always unbalanced. The annual mean balance of the heat budget of the Earth-atmosphere over a long time period will reliably define the behavior and magnitude of the energy excess accumulated by the Earth or energy deficit to allow us to determine adequately and to predict beforehand the trend and amplitude of the forthcoming climate change using the prognosis of variations in the total solar irradiance (solar constant). The decrease in solar constant has been observed since the early 1990s. The Earth as a planet will have a negative balance in the energy budget in the future as well, because the Sun is entering the decline phase of the bicentennial luminosity changes. This will lead to a drop in temperature in approximately 2014. The increase in albedo and decrease in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere will result in the additional decrease in absorbed portion of the solar energy and reduced greenhouse effect. The additional drop in temperature exceeding the effect of decreased solar constant can occur as a result of successive feedback effects. A deep bicentennial minimum in solar constant is to be anticipated in 2042 ± 11 and the 19th Little Ice Age (for the last 7500 years) may occur in 2055 ± 11.  相似文献   

2.
A theoretical study of the influence of propagating acoustic pulses in the solar chromosphere upon the line profiles of the Ca ii resonance and infrared triplet lines has been made. The major objective has been to explain the observed asymmetries seen in the cores of the H and K lines and to predict the temporal behavior of the infrared lines caused by passing acoustic or shock pulses. The velocities in the pulses, calculated from weak shock theory, have been included consistently in the non-LTE calculations. The results of the calculations show that these lines are very sensitive to perturbations in the background atmosphere caused by the pulses. Only minor changes in the line shapes result from including the velocities consistently in the line source function calculations. The qualitative changes in the line profiles vary markedly with the strength of the shock pulses. The observed differences in the K line profiles seen on the quiet Sun can be explained in terms of a spectrum of pulses with different wave-lengths and initial amplitudes in the photosphere.  相似文献   

3.
Very Large Array (VLA) observations at 91-cm wavelength are combined with data from the SOHO EIT, MDI and LASCO and used to study the evolving coronal magnetic environment in which Type I noise storms and large-scale coronal loops occur. On one day, we have shown the early evolution of a coronal mass ejection (CME) in projection in the disk by tracing its decimetric continuum emission. The passage of the CME and an associated EUV ejection event coincided with an increase in the 91-cm brightness temperature of an extended coronal loop located a significant distance away and with the displacement of the 91-cm source during the early stage of the CME. We suggest that the energy deposited into the corona by the CME may have caused a local increase in the thermal or nonthermal electron density or in the electron temperature in the middle corona resulting in a transient increase in the brightness of the 91-cm loop. On a second observing day, we have consolidated the known association between magnetic changes in the photosphere and low corona with noise storm enhancements in an overlying radio source well in advance of a flare event in the same region. We find anti-correlated changes in the brightness of a bipolar 91-cm Type I noise storm that appear to be associated with the cancellation and emergence of magnetic flux in the underlying photosphere. In this case, the evolving fields may have led to magnetic instabilities and reconnection in the corona and the acceleration of nonthermal particles that initiated and sustained the Type I noise storm.  相似文献   

4.
A survey of values of the speed of general precession in longitude is presented from the time of Bessel to the adoption of the new value by the IAU in 1976 for use in the FK5 and the J2000 reference system. The important contributions of Walter Fricke to this area of fundamental astronomy are outlined.Dedicated to Walter Fricke on the occasion of his 70th birthday and of his retirement as director of the Astronomisches Rechen-Institut in Heidelberg in appreciation of the insight he has given us and in anticipation of his continued research in fundamental astronomy.  相似文献   

5.
Several versions of the shock-in-jet model of the blazars' variability have been proposed in recent years. This family of models resorts to the interaction between a relativistic shock and a feature in the parsec-scale jet associated to an AGN in order to explain the origin of the rapid variability recently observed in many extragalactic radio sources. The nature of the involved features varies from one particular model to another. Here I discuss a possible origin for this variety of subparsec-sized features in the frame of the two-fluid model of extragalactic jets. Macroscopic Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities are shown to be capable of producing the required plurality of morphologies in the innermost part of the beams, in such a way that the different models have particular ranges of applicability according to the differencies in the parameters of the flows.  相似文献   

6.
Solar activity behaviour on the eve of the Maunder minimum may provide important information on the period of further suppression of sunspot population. We analyse sunspot positions and areas in the 1630s extracted from rare drawings published by Pierre Gassendi in Opera Omnia. This work was published in two different editions, the first in Lyon and the second almost 70 years later in Florence. The drawings published in Lyon are found to be slightly different from those published in Florence, which produces a discrepancy in the position of spots of a few degrees, while sunspot group areas may differ by a factor of two. We reveal that the orientation of the drawings in the book is not always the same as might be seen in the telescope. We conjecture that the time of Gassendi’s observations covers the beginning of a new Schwabe cycle in the southern hemisphere. The differential rotation rate in the 1630s is also assessed and discussed.  相似文献   

7.
J. Sýkora 《Solar physics》1970,13(2):292-300
From 20 K232-spectroheliograms, time and shape changes of the supergranular network were investigated by means of autocorrelation curves. It was found that supergranules are lengthened in the direction of the solar rotation and this flattening fades out with growing activity of the region. Dimensions of the supergranular network increase with the activity of the corresponding region. The average diameter of the supergranules in the inactive regions is larger in the maximum of the solar cycle than in its minimum. The contrast of the calcium emission with respect to the background is double in the solar maximum in comparison with that in the minimum.  相似文献   

8.
A pattern in moonquakes, which correlates with the monthly tidal cycle, also correlates with a phase shifted pattern of a 7-month tidal cycle. The lead of approximately 2 months in moonquake occurrence can be explained if local tidal forces are combined with a moonquake-driving force. This force, assumed to result from the 6-yr physical libration in latitude, would cause N-S sliding of an outer layer across a solid layer within a decoupled core in a lunar model. During 1969–1971, the sliding would be southward with a progression of monthly maxima in the combined forces. Where these forces control moonquakes, the reversal in direction of the 6-year cyclic force in early 1972 should cause a minimum in moonquake activity. Decreases toward such a minimum did occur simultaneously in the similar progressions of monthly moonquakes and maxima in the combined forces at the most active hypocenter. Repetition of the 1966–1971 force pattern in 1975–1977 should produce a corresponding repetition of the moonquake pattern. In 1973, the yet to be determined pattern in moonquakes could correspond to the pattern of either an entirely cyclic force, or a combination of the cyclic force and an additional secular force. The physical libration in latitude controls moonquakes in both cases. If moonquakes are driven by an entirely cyclic force, the use of a simple lunar model could lead to a better understanding of moonquake causes and of possible analogs in earthquake control.  相似文献   

9.
On the basis of an analysis of the instability of drift caused by density and magnetic field inhomogeneities in plasmas with finite β, the effect of the instability on the excitation of kinetic Alfven wave (KAW) is probed. In the kinetic theory, which correctly treats the effect of the finite Larmor radius and the wave-particle resonant interaction, the motion of the ions is described with the Vlasov equation and the motion of electrons, with the kinetic drift equation. Comparing the effects by inhomogeneities in the density and in the magnetic field in plasmas with finite β, we found that the drift instability is more easily excited by the former, and in the instability so excited, the energy transfer is more intense. This energy transfer provides the physical basis for the excitation of KAW. As shown by numerical solutions, KAWs can be widely excited and produced in the magnetosphere, especially in the cusp of the magnetosphere, in the magnetopause and in the boundary layers of plasma sheets, where inhomogeneities are obvious. The results of the present work further illustrate that the KAW plays an important role in the energy transfer in magnetospheric regions.  相似文献   

10.
Asok K. Sen 《Solar physics》2007,241(1):67-76
In this paper we use the notion of multifractality to describe the complexity in Hα flare activity during the solar cycles 21, 22, and 23. Both northern and southern hemisphere flare indices are analyzed. Multifractal behavior of the flare activity is characterized by calculating the singularity spectrum of the daily flare index time series in terms of the Hölder exponent. The broadness of the singularity spectrum gives a measure of the degree of multifractality or complexity in the flare index data. The broader the spectrum, the richer and more complex is the structure with a higher degree of multifractality. Using this broadness measure, complexity in the flare index data is compared between the northern and southern hemispheres in each of the three cycles, and among the three cycles in each of the two hemispheres. Other parameters of the singularity spectrum can also provide information about the fractal properties of the flare index data. For instance, an asymmetry to the left or right in the singularity spectrum indicates a dominance of high or low fractal exponents, respectively, reflecting a relative abundance of large or small fluctuations in the total energy emitted by the flares. Our results reveal that in the even (22nd) cycle the singularity spectra are very similar for the northern and southern hemispheres, whereas in the odd cycles (21st and 23rd) they differ significantly. In particular, we find that in cycle 21, the northern hemisphere flare index data have higher complexity than its southern counterpart, with an opposite pattern prevailing in cycle 23. Furthermore, small-scale fluctuations in the flare index time series are predominant in the northern hemisphere in the 21st cycle and are predominant in the southern hemisphere in the 23rd cycle. Based on these findings one might suggest that, from cycle to cycle, there exists a smooth switching between the northern and southern hemispheres in the multifractality of the flaring process. This new observational result may bring an insight into the mechanisms of the solar dynamo operation and may also be useful for forecasting solar cycles.  相似文献   

11.
Carol S. Breed 《Icarus》1977,30(2):326-340
Geomorphic features in the Hellespontus region, Mars, were compared with dunes of the crescentic ridge type in numerous terrestrial sand seas quantitatively by dimensional analysis of dune lengths, widths, and wavelengths. Mean values for the Hellespontus dunes are close to mean values derived from measurements of all sampled terrestrial sand seas. Terrestrial analogs of form and areal distribution of the Hellespontus dunes are shown by comparison of scale ratios derived from the measurements. Dunes of similar form occur in South West Africa, in Pakistan, in the southeastern Arabian peninsula, in the Sahara, in eastern USSR and northern China, and in western North America. Terrestrial analogs closest to form and areal distribution of the Hellespontus dunes are in the Kara Kum Desert, Turkmen SSR, and in the Ala Shan (Gobi) Desert, China.  相似文献   

12.
In a preceding paper (Kopal, 1969; in what follows referred to as Paper I) we introduced a new system of curvilinear coordinates-hereafter referred to as Roche Coordinates — in which spheres of constant radius in spherical polars have been replaced by surfaces of constant potential of a rotating gravitational dipole; while the angular coordinates are orthogonal to the equipotentials. In Paper I we established an explicit form of such a transformation, and related the Roche coordinates with polar coordinates (with which they coalesce in the immediate neighbourhood of each one of the two finite mass-points) in the plane case. The aim of the present investigation will be to generalize the definition of the Roche coordinates to three dimensions.The opening Section 1 of this paper will contain a general outline of the proposed three-dimensional transformation; and in Section 2 details of this transformation will be explicitly worked out correctly to quantities of first order in superficial distortion — an approximation which should prove adequate in regions surrounding the two finite masses; while in Section 3 we shall evaluate (to this degree of accuracy) the metric coefficients of the respective transformation, and its direction cosines, in both polar and curvilinear coordinates. Section 4 will then contain a formulation of the fundamental equations of hydrodynamics in terms of the three-dimensional Roche coordinates; and their advantages for a treatment of certain classes of dynamical problems encountered in doublestar astronomy will be illustrated in the concluding Section 5 by an investigation of the vibrational stability of the Roche model. We shall show that this model is capable of performing free radial oscillations which remain barotropic only if its equilibrium form is spherical (i.e., in the absence of any external mass in the neighbourhood); but not if it is distorted to any extent by rotation or tides.  相似文献   

13.
The effect of mass balance variations on changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet is examined in connection with the rise in sea level that will be caused by increased melting. Changes in surface elevation of several metres (of either sign) can occur in the ablation area of the ice sheet over a period of a few years as a result of random ablation forcing without being evidence of change in mean climate. Similar, but smaller, changes can occur in the accumulation area due to accumulation forcing. The ablation area of the ice sheet probably thickened from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s as a result of lower ablation in that period but thinned again in the late 1980s as a result of higher ablation then. There is no evidence of any present trend of increased melting. Future climate warming will involve an accelerated thinning of the ablation area that could be detected in 1–2 decades against the background of natural fluctuations in surface elevation.  相似文献   

14.
Geochemical profiles of surface units, impact, and volcanic features are studied in detail to determine the underlying structure in an area of extensive mare/highland interface, Sinus Amoris. This study region includes and surrounds the northeastern embayment of Mare Tranquillitatis. The concentrations of two major rock-forming elements (Mg and Al), which were derived from the Apollo 15 orbital geochemical measurements, were used in this study. Mapped units and deposits associated with craters in the northwestern part of the region tend to have correlated low Mg and Al concentrations, indicating the presence of KREEP-enriched basalt. Found along the northeastern rim of Tranquillitatis were areas with correlated high Mg and Al concentration, indicating the presence of troctolite. Distinctive west/east and north/south trends were observed in the concentrations of Mg and Al, and, by implication, in the distribution of major rock components on the surface. Evidence for a systematic geochemical transition in highland or basin-forming units may be observed here in the form of distinctive differences in chemistry in otherwise similar units in the western and eastern portions of the study region.  相似文献   

15.
Oxygen has been considered a potentially important light element in metallic liquids during a range of planetary processes, yet the influence of O in a metallic melt on element partitioning behavior is largely unknown. To investigate the effect of O in such systems, we conducted experiments in the Fe‐S‐O system, doped with 25 trace elements, which produced two immiscible metallic liquids. Our results indicate that the presence of O in the metallic liquid produces a distinctive chemical signature for W and Ga in particular. Tungsten shows an affinity for O in the metallic liquid and partitions more strongly into the metallic melt in the presence of O. The partitioning of Ga is relatively constant despite the presence of O, which is in contrast to the majority of the other siderophile elements in the study. Our experiments from 1400 to 1600 °C show no significant effect from temperature on the partitioning behavior of any trace elements over this limited temperature range. This distinctive chemical signature due to the presence of O in the metallic liquid has potential implications for modeling core formation, evaluating isotopic signatures produced by core crystallization, and interpreting chemical assemblages observed in meteorites.  相似文献   

16.
We consider the conditions in the transition from the tachocline to the solar convective zone with changing diffusion coefficient. The topology of the magnetic fields involved in the solar dynamo is revised under the assumption that intermediate fields (of the order of 10 mT) have a dominant role in generating the fields in new cycle. The inclusion of meridional circulation is found to increase the dynamo wave period in comparison to the observed period. This suggests that the αΩ-effects are unimportant in calculating the solar cycle period but hold significance in determining the cycle amplitude.  相似文献   

17.
The nearest in time close approach of potentially hazardous asteroid (99942) Apophis with the Earth will take place on April 13, 2029, when the minimum distance of the asteroid from the Earth’s center will be as small as 38 000 km. Such a close approach will result in substantial transformation of the asteroid’s orbit. The value of the perturbations depends on the minimum distance between the bodies during the approach. Among possible transformations of the orbit are those which result in new dangerous approaches and even in probable Apophis collisions with the Earth starting from 2036. At present, at least four solutions are known for the Apophis orbit which were obtained using all radar and most of available optical observations. The procedures of assigning weights to conditional equations and the models of the asteroid’s motion have differed to some extent when finding these solutions. Of considerable interest is the comparison of the found orbital parameters with the estimates of their accuracy, since small distinctions in their values result in considerable distinctions in the forecast of Apophis’ motion after 2029 and beyond. It is shown in the paper that the estimates of the probability of an Apophis collision with the Earth in 2036 differ by some orders of magnitude, according to various solutions. The influence of factors which were disregarded in the models of motion even more increases the uncertainty in forecasting the motion after 2029. More accurate forecasting can be achieved as a result of additional optical and, to a greater extent, a series of radar observations in 2013 and then in 2020–2021, and/or as a result of processing radio signals of the transmitter delivered to the Apophis surface or to the orbit of its artificial satellite, as it was proposed in a number of papers.  相似文献   

18.
The process of heliospheric modulation of intensity of galactic cosmic rays is investigated by solving the transport equation. The spatial-energetic distribution of cosmic rays in the present epoch and in the past is analyzed. It is demonstrated that the particle density and the energy density of cosmic rays in the Solar System in the distant past were much lower than the corresponding current values. The cosmic ray intensity modulation in the early heliosphere was especially strong in the case of low-energy particles.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract– The Siljan impact structure in Sweden is the largest confirmed impact structure in Western Europe. Despite this, the structure has been poorly studied in the past, and detailed studies of shock metamorphic features in the target lithologies are missing. Here, we present the results of a detailed systematic search for shock metamorphic features in quartz grains from 73 sampled localities at Siljan. At 21 localities from an area approximately 20 km in diameter located centrally in the structure, the orientations of 2851 planar deformation feature sets in 1179 quartz grains were measured. Observations of shatter cones outside of the zone with shocked quartz extend the total shocked area to approximately 30 km in diameter. The most strongly shocked samples, recording pressures of up to 20 GPa, occur at the very central part of the structure, and locally in these samples, higher pressures causing melting conditions in the affected rocks were reached. Pressures recorded in the studied samples decrease outwards from the center of the structure, forming roughly circular envelopes around the proposed shock center. Based on the distribution pattern of shocked quartz at Siljan, the original transient cavity can be estimated at approximately 32–38 km in diameter. After correcting for erosion, we conclude that the original rim to rim diameter of the Siljan crater was somewhere in the size range 50–90 km.  相似文献   

20.
J. R. Bates 《Solar physics》1981,74(2):399-415
Variations in solar UV radiation can lead to changes in the mean temperature and wind distributions in the stratosphere and, through modification of the ozone photochemistry, to changes in the damping rate of temperature perturbations about the mean. Such changes can influence the stratospheric propagation characteristics of planetary waves generated in the troposphere, leading to changes in the steady state interference pattern of these waves at all levels. In particular, the poleward heat transfer by the planetary waves in the troposphere can be strongly modified, thus providing a mechanism whereby solar cycle variations in ultraviolet radiation can influence climate.The dynamics of the mechanism are presented in a simple form and the literature on the subject is reviewed.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands.  相似文献   

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