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1.
Two kinds of objective functions for parameter optimisation in simplified general circulation models (SGCMs) are introduced and tested with an SGCM employing linear parameterisations for diabatic heating, surface friction and horizontal diffusion. (a) A set of circulation indices is introduced to characterise the zonal mean primary and secondary circulation and the global energetics. The objective function is then given by the distance between the modelled and a reference (e.g. observed) circulation in a state space spanned by these indices. (b) The global and time mean entropy production and kinetic energy dissipation are introduced as additional objective functions, following the maximum entropy production principle. It is found that both methods lead to optimal parameter values close to the standard configuration of the model, though the method of the second kind is restricted to those model parameters associated with internal processes such as heat and momentum fluxes.  相似文献   

2.
Three models of the partitioning of net radiation into latent and sensible heat fluxes over Sahelian savannah are described. Each model has a different configuration of stomatal and aerodynamic resistances. Their performance was assessed by comparison against field measurements of latent heat flux over savannah vegetation consisting of bushes interspersed with a herbaceous understorey. The modelled results indicate that in dry conditions, a Penman-Monteith based single source model performs adequately when predicting the latent heat flux. However, the models with two sources demonstrate that the bushes and herbs have very different responses to local climate. In all the models, evaporation is highly sensitive to stomatal resistance, suggesting that a better understanding of stomatal response would improve the accuracy of the models.  相似文献   

3.
We study the linear instability and nonlinear stability of a model, for convection induced by selective absorption of radiation, due to Krishnamurti. The nonlinear analysis yields critical Rayleigh numbers very close to the critical ones of linear instability theory and this demonstrates that linear theory effectively captures the physics of the onset of convection. Realistic boundary conditions appropriate to fixed surfaces are analysed and these reflect the experiments performed by Krishnamurti. The results obtained here lend much credence to use of the model of Krishnamurti for convection in a fluid layer stably stratified when the heat source depends on the concentration of the stratifying agent.  相似文献   

4.
Summary It is shown that there exists a mechanism that can cause north-northwest movement of tropical cyclones in addition to already recognised mechanisms such as steering current and beta drift. This mechanism depends on the interaction between organised convection and dynamics. In the initial stages of formation of a cyclone, it is assumed that the hydrodynamic instabilities result in an incipient disturbance that organises some convection giving rise to a heat source. The atmospheric response to a localized heat source located off the equator in the northern hemisphere produces a low level vorticity field with a maximum in the northwest sector of the original heat source. If the Ekman-CISK which depends on the low level vorticity, was the dominating mechanism for moisture convergence, the location of the heat source would move to the new location of vorticity maximum. A repetition of this process would result in a northwest movement of the heat source and hence that of the cyclone. The movement of a tropical vortex under the influence of this mechanism which depends on asymmetries created by linear dispersion of Rossby waves is first illustrated using a linear model. It is then demonstrated that this process also enhances the motion of a tropical vortex in a nonlinear model. Importance of this feedback and the resulting movements of a tropical vortex in determining the actual track of a cyclone and in bogusing an initial vortex for prediction models are illustrated.With 6 Figures  相似文献   

5.
A simple model to study the decay of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the convective surface layer is presented. In this model, the TKE is dependent upon two terms, the turbulent dissipation rate and the surface buoyancy fluctuations. The time evolution of the surface sensible heat flux is modelled based on fitting functions of actual measurements from the LITFASS-2003 field campaign. These fitting functions carry an amplitude and a time scale. With this approach, the sensible heat flux can be estimated without having to solve the entire surface energy balance. The period of interest covers two characteristic transition sub-periods involved in the decay of convective boundary-layer turbulence. The first sub-period is the afternoon transition, when the sensible heat flux starts to decrease in response to the reduction in solar radiation. It is typically associated with a decay rate of TKE of approximately t −2 (t is time following the start of the decay) after several convective eddy turnover times. The early evening transition is the second sub-period, typically just before sunset when the surface sensible heat flux becomes negative. This sub-period is characterized by an abrupt decay in TKE associated with the rapid collapse of turbulence. Overall, the results presented show a significant improvement of the modelled TKE decay when compared to the often applied assumption of a sensible heat flux decreasing instantaneously or with a very short forcing time scale. In addition, for atmospheric modelling studies, it is suggested that the afternoon and early evening decay of sensible heat flux be modelled as a complementary error function.  相似文献   

6.
Based on steady semi-geostrophic model equations,analysis is carried out of the linear and nonlinearmodification/response of the tropical atmosphere to the forcing of ideal paired heat sources of contrasting nature.Re-suits show that the linear part is dominant in the steady response but the nonlinear modification is quite noticable in theneighborhood of the heat source and between the paired sources,and the barotropic mode and second baroclinic modeplay a different role in the modification,with the barotropic(second baroclinic)mode modification depending largely onthe Rossby wave self-interaction(the magnitude due to the Kelvin-Rossby wave interaction)between the pairedsources.  相似文献   

7.
Based on steady semi-geostrophic model equations,analysis is carried out of the linear and nonlinear modification/response of the tropical atmosphere to the forcing of ideal paired heat sources of contrasting nature.Resuits show that the linear part is dominant in the steady response but the nonlinear modification is quite noticable in the neighborhood of the heat source and between the paired sources,and the barotropic mode and second baroclinic mode play a different role in the modification,with the barotropic(second baroclinic)mode modification depending largely on the Rossby wave self-interaction(the magnitude due to the Kelvin-Rossby wave interaction)between the paired sources.  相似文献   

8.
The effects of stochastic forcing on a one-dimensional, energy balance climate model are considered. A linear, stochastic model is reviewed in analogy with the Brownian motion problem from classical statistical mechanics. An analogous nonlinear model is studied and shows different behavior from the linear model. The source of the nonlinearity is the dynamical heat transport. The role of nonlinearity in coupling different temporal and spatial scales of the atmosphere is examined. The Fokker-Planck equation from statistical mechanics is used to obtain a time evolution equation for the probability density function for the climate, and the climatic potential function is calculated. Analytical solutions to the steady-state Fokker-Planck equation are obtained, while the time-dependent solution is obtained numerically. The spread of the energy produced by a stochastic forcing element is found to be characterized by movement mainly from smaller to larger scales. Forced and free variations of climate are also explicitly considered.  相似文献   

9.
This paper evaluates convective boundary layer (CBL) budget methods as a tool for estimating regionally averaged sensible and latent heat fluxes for the study region used in OASIS (Observations at Several Interacting Scales). This is an agricultural region of mixed cropping and grazing extending about 100 km west of the town of Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia.The analysis proceeds in three stages: first, a simpleone-dimensional model of the well-mixed layer (the CBL slab model), forced with measurements of the surface heat and evaporation fluxes, is evaluated by comparing measured and modelled CBL temperature, humidity and depths. A comparison of several entrainment schemes shows that a simple model, where the entrainment kinetic energy is parameterised as a fraction (3) of the surface sensible heat flux, works well if is set to 0.5. Second, the slab model is coupled to a Penman–Monteith model of surface evaporation to predict regional scale evaporation and thence heat fluxes. Finally, the integral CBL budget approach, which is an inverse method using theone-dimensional slab model, is used to infer regional heat and evaporation fluxes from measured time series of CBL temperature and humidity.We find that the simple CBL slab model works reasonably well for predicting CBL depth and very well for CBL temperature, especially if approximate estimates of subsidence velocity and warming due to advection are included. Regional sensible heat fluxes estimated from the integral CBL method match those measured, although the method is very sensitive to measurement errors. Measurement-model differences were larger for short integration times, because the well-mixed assumptions are violated at particular times of the day. The corollary is that `whole-day' (0530–1530 h) estimates are in reasonable agreement with measured values. Integral methods could not be used to infer the regional evaporation flux directly because CBL humidity profiles were complex and often not well mixed until mid-afternoon. We recommend that regional evaporation fluxes be predicted either from a coupled Penman–Monteith – CBL slab model, or inferred as a residual term from estimates of the regionally averaged available energy and sensible heat flux. Furthermore, we show that inferring fluxes via integral methods will always be difficult when the scalar concentrations have either a large surface source and free atmosphere sink (in the case of water vapour and methane), or a large surface sink and upper level source (in the case of CO2).  相似文献   

10.
The thermal diffusion equation is solved analytically for an ideally translucent and homogeneous medium with an internal, distributed heat source given by the penetration and absorption of solar radiation. The mean annual temperature profile has the coldest values at the surface; the mean annual flux of sensible heat out of the medium balances the internally absorbed solar radiation for the case of constant mean annual temperatures. A new formula is developed for the evaluation of the true thermal diffusivity of a non-homogeneous conductor from the Fourier components of the waves of insolation and temperature; a constant extinction coefficient is assumed. The new model is applied with moderate success to data from the coastal plateau ice at Mawson, Antarctica.National Research Council Postdoctoral Resident Research Associate. Present Affiliation: Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California 94025.  相似文献   

11.
Summary ?A scheme for calibrating an ensemble of wind fields computed by a mesoscale model in order to generate synthetic wind statistics is described. It is based on two main points. The first is to exploit the power of a mesoscale model to determine wind fields over complex terrain for different weather situations classified by cluster analysis. The second is to use all the information in the cluster analysis, i.e., the centroid values as well as the internal standard deviations of the clusters, to determine a cluster space distribution at each grid point in the model domain. The latter makes calibration possible if reliable measurements are available at the position of one of the grid points. The accuracy of the calibration is increased by splitting the cluster spaces into several parts. Combining both the modelled mesoscale wind fields and the method of split cluster spaces leads to a spatial transformation of the calibration from the calibration point to each grid point in the model domain. A validation of the scheme is carried out with measurements at grid points other than the calibration point and reveals remarkable improvements in the accuracy of the model wind statistics, especially with regard to wind speed distributions. Received October 8, 1998/Revised March 19, 1999  相似文献   

12.
青藏高原冬春积雪和地表热源影响亚洲夏季风的研究进展   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
青藏高原冬春积雪和地表热源的气候效应是青藏高原气候动力学的两个重要内容。大量资料分析和数值试验研究均表明这两个因子对亚洲季风有一定的预测意义,本文对此做了比较系统的回顾和总结,并进一步比较了青藏高原积雪和地表热源影响东亚和南亚夏季降水的异同。结果表明,东亚夏季降水在年际和年代际尺度上均存在"三极型"和"南北反相"型的空间分布特征,高原春季地表热源在年代际和年际尺度上主要影响东亚夏季降水"三极型"模态;在年代际尺度上它是中国东部出现"南涝北旱"格局的重要原因,而高原冬季积雪的作用相反。另一方面,高原冬季积雪在年际和年代际尺度上对印度夏季风降水的预测效果均要优于高原地表热源。无论是空间分布还是时间演变特征,高原冬季积雪与春季地表热源整体上均无统计意义上的显著联系。不断完善高原地面观测网和改进模式在高原地区的模拟性能,将是进一步深入理解高原积雪和地表热源影响亚洲季风物理过程和机制的关键所在。  相似文献   

13.
The linear baroclinic instabilities of a basic geostrophic shear flow in a stratified, thermally active ocean are considered, including the β-effect. It is shown that the internal heat production, even if it introduces only minor changes into the geostrophic balance, may deeply modify the stability properties of the stationary solutions. If density, geostrophic basic flow, and heat production are all regarded as arbitrary functions of depth only, and if a linear nonzonal assumption is made about the geostrophic pressure field, it can be shown how the geostrophic equilibrium is altered and how the internal heating affects both the directions of propagation and the growth rates of quasi-geostrophic disturbances. A semicircle theorem valid for every direction of propagation is proved, by generalizing well-known results obtained for adiabatic geostrophic flows.Finally, it is found that the modified instability can be described adequately by a directional Richardson number related to the perturbed stationary geostrophic flow.  相似文献   

14.
A nine-layer spectral atmospheric general circulation model is coupled to a twenty-layer global oceanic general circulation model with the “prediction-correction” monthly anomaly exchange scheme which has been proposed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). A forty-year integration of the coupled model shows that the CGCM is fairly successful in keeping a reasonable pattern of the modelled SST although most of the Pacific become warmer than those given by the uncoupled ocean model. The model tends to reach a more realistic state than the uncoupled one in terms of downward surface heat flux into ocean particularly in the equatorial Pacific region. Also, the model is capable to simulate interannual variability of sea surface temperature in tropical region.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

A recently published slab model formulation of lake thermodynamics (Goyette et al., 2000), including an empirical factor to adjust the incoming heat flux so that the modelled lake surface temperature agrees with observed climatology, leads to a distinct lack of energy conservation. The empirical adjustment conceptually represents an exchange of heat between the mixed‐layer water (the slab that is explicitly simulated in the model) and deeper layers of water. It ensures a realistic temporal progression of temperature in the mixed layer, but the thermodynamic balance of the deeper water is not considered. When the deeper water is considered, it is found that the empirical adjustment accounts for the entire heat input to the deeper water, and on an annual mean basis, it is considerably unbalanced. This reveals a flaw in this model concept and, although not entirely invalidating the model, it needs to be included as a caveat in its use.  相似文献   

16.
We present a second-order turbulence model for the cloudy planetary boundary layer (PBL), which includes a statistical scheme of the sub-grid scale condensation. The model contains prognostic equations for the turbulent kinetic energy, total water, and liquid water temperature, the latter two being assumed to be conservative variables. Using these conservative thermodynamic variables the condensation process is formulated as a function of the departure of the total water from saturation and its variance. The computation of the variance requires second moment correlations which are modelled through the parameterization of the third-order moments using a convective mass-flux formulation. The inclusion of these third moments and new assumptions on heat flux transport lead to a nonlocal turbulence scheme with counter-gradient effects. The final form for the heat flux turns out to be a linearized version of a previously established result. For the statistical cloud formulation, a linear combination of a Gaussian and a positively skewed distribution function is used with a modified liquid water flux expression to account fornon-Gaussian behaviour.The effect of the turbulence scheme on the boundary-layer cloud structure is discussed and the performance of the model is tested by comparing it against the large eddy simulation (LES) of the undisturbed period of the Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment (ASTEX). The model is able to produce both mean and turbulent quantities that are in reasonable agreement with the LES output of ASTEX.  相似文献   

17.
Influence of sea surface temperatures on air temperatures in the tropics   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Interannual variations of tropical tropospheric temperatures are closely related to sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP). This study investigated the physical mechanisms for such an air-sea interrelationship. SSTs and latent heat flux were analyzed to find the unique properties of their variations during El Niño. A Gill-type model was used to investigate how a local heat source communicates with the entire tropics. Radiative fluxes in the tropics were evaluated to search for the factors limiting air temperature increases when warm SSTs remain in the TEP. We found that interannual variabilities of SST and latent heat flux are dominated by the variations in the TEP region. The SST variations there have three unique properties that allow the ocean to influence the atmosphere effectively: large magnitude, long persistence, and spatial coherence. The Gill-type model shows that a local heat source can warm the entire tropical troposphere when the heat source is near the equator. Released latent heat in the heat source region and forced adiabatic subsidence elsewhere in the tropics warm the atmosphere. As a result, a local heat source warms the entire tropical strip. The forced subsidence depresses clouds, allowing more infrared radiation to leave the atmosphere and preventing further atmospheric warming when warm SSTs remain in the TEP. This finding is verified by reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.  相似文献   

18.
Northern Canadian Wetlands: Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange and Climatic Change   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Northern Canadian peatlands represent a long term sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), however there is concern they may become a net source of CO2 due to climatic change. Climatic change is expected to result in significant changes in regional hydrology in boreal and subarctic regions of Canada. A hydrologic model predicted a summer water table drop of 0.14 m in northern Canadian fens given an increase in summer temperature and rainfall of 3°C and 1 mm d-1, respectively. Moreover, surface peat temperature increased by 2.3°C. Net ecosystem exchange of CO2 was modelled using these modelled hydrologic and thermal changes with respiration:peat temperature and water table:net ecosystem production relationships developed from measurements at wetlands in northern Sweden and near Churchill, Manitoba. Model results indicate that the net atmospheric CO2 sink function of fens may be enhanced under future 2 × CO2 scenarios, while bogs may become a net source of atmospheric CO2. If the net ecosystem productivity response to the new hydrologic conditions was ignored then the model predicts a decrease in summer carbon storage for all peatland types.  相似文献   

19.
 The possibility of using a nonlinear empirical atmospheric model for hybrid coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling has been examined by using a neural network (NN) model for predicting the contemporaneous wind stress field from the upper ocean state. Upper ocean heat content (HC) from a 6-layer ocean model was a better predictor of the wind stress than the (observed or modelled) sea surface temperature (SST). Our results showed that the NN model generally had slightly better skills in predicting the contemporaneous wind stress than the linear regression (LR) model in the off-equatorial tropical Pacific and in the eastern equatorial Pacific. When the wind stresses from the NN and LR models were used to drive the ocean model, slightly better SST skills were found in the off-equatorial tropical Pacific and in the eastern equatorial Pacific when the NN winds were used instead of the LR winds. Better skills for the model HC were found in the western and central equatorial Pacific when the NN winds were used instead of the LR winds. Why NN failed to show more significant improvement over LR in the equatorial Pacific for the wind stress and SST is probably because the relationship between the surface ocean and the atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific over the seasonal time scale is almost linear. Received: 2 March 1999 / Accepted: 13 July 2000  相似文献   

20.
Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO2 concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.  相似文献   

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