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1.
Intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region occur in response to stress generation due to descending lithosphere
beneath the southeastern Carpathians. In this article, tectonic stress and seismicity are analyzed in the region on the basis
of a vast body of observations. We show a correlation between the location of intermediate-depth earthquakes and the predicted
localization of maximum shear stress in the lithosphere. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the region is
presented in terms of various ground motion parameters on the utilization of Fourier amplitude spectra used in engineering
practice and risk assessment (peak ground acceleration, response spectra amplitude, and seismic intensity). We review the
PSHA carried out in the region, and present new PSHA results for the eastern and southern parts of Romania. Our seismic hazard
assessment is based on the information about the features of earthquake ground motion excitation, seismic wave propagation
(attenuation), and site effect in the region. Spectral models and characteristics of site-response on earthquake ground motions
are obtained from the regional ground motion data including several hundred records of small and large earthquakes. Results
of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are consistent with the features of observed earthquake effects in the southeastern
Carpathians and show that geological factors play an important part in the distribution of the earthquake ground motion parameters. 相似文献
2.
This work briefly discusses the main features of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Special attention is paid to the identification and quantification of uncertainties related to seismic source characteristics and seismic engineering models for prediction of strong ground motions. The principal seismic models and the results of PSHA application for detailed seismic zoning of urban territories in Sakhalin Island are presented. 相似文献
3.
This article describes a new performance-based approach for evaluating the return period of seismic soil liquefaction based on standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) data. The conventional liquefaction evaluation methods consider a single acceleration level and magnitude and these approaches fail to take into account the uncertainty in earthquake loading. The seismic hazard analysis based on the probabilistic method clearly shows that a particular acceleration value is being contributed by different magnitudes with varying probability. In the new method presented in this article, the entire range of ground shaking and the entire range of earthquake magnitude are considered and the liquefaction return period is evaluated based on the SPT and CPT data. This article explains the performance-based methodology for the liquefaction analysis – starting from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the evaluation of seismic hazard and the performance-based method to evaluate the liquefaction return period. A case study has been done for Bangalore, India, based on SPT data and converted CPT values. The comparison of results obtained from both the methods have been presented. In an area of 220 km2 in Bangalore city, the site class was assessed based on large number of borehole data and 58 Multi-channel analysis of surface wave survey. Using the site class and peak acceleration at rock depth from PSHA, the peak ground acceleration at the ground surface was estimated using probabilistic approach. The liquefaction analysis was done based on 450 borehole data obtained in the study area. The results of CPT match well with the results obtained from similar analysis with SPT data. 相似文献
4.
作为地震灾害评估的理论基础,地震动力学主要研究与地震活动有关的断裂机制、破裂过程、震源辐射和由此而引起的地震波的传播及地面运动规律。对地震力学、震源辐射和能量释放等经典理论问题进行了系统研究。在此基础上,应用最新的定量地震学研究方法,以逻辑树的形式综合地震、地质和大地测量资料,提供了不同构造环境和断裂机制条件下地震灾害评估的概率分析和确定性分析实例。用于震源分析的典型构造类型包括板内地壳震源层、地壳活动断层及其速率、板块俯冲界面和俯冲板片。由于输入模型中不确定因素的存在,如输入参数的随机性和科学分析方法本身的不确定性,对分析结果的不确定性需审慎对待。通常对不同的模型或参量,包括地面衰减模型,进行加权平均可较为合理地减小结果的偏差：概率分析和确定性分析方法的结合亦为可取之有效途径。 相似文献
5.
Economic importance of major ports is well known, and if ports are located in seismically active regions, then site-specific
seismic hazard studies are essential to mitigate the seismic risk of the ports. Seismic design of port sites and related structures
can be accomplished in three steps that include assessment of regional seismicity, geotechnical hazards, and soil structure
interaction analysis. In the present study, site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is performed to identify the
seismic hazard associated with four typical port sites of Gujarat state (bounded by 20°–25.5°N and 68°–75°E) of India viz.
Kandla, Mundra, Hazira, and Dahej ports. The primary aim of the study is to develop consistent seismic ground motion for the
structures within the four port sites for different three levels of ground shaking, i.e., operating level earthquake (72 years
return period), contingency level earthquake (CLE) (475 year return period), and maximum considered earthquake (2,475 year
return period). The geotechnical characterization for each port site is carried out using available geotechnical data. Shear
wave velocities of the soil profile are estimated from SPT blow counts using various empirical formulae. Seismicity of the
Gujarat region is modeled through delineating the 40 fault sources based on the seismotectonic setting. The Gujarat state
is divided into three regions, i.e., Kachchh, Saurashtra, and Mainland Gujarat, and regional recurrence relations are assigned
in the form of Gutenberg-Richter parameters in order to calculate seismic hazard associated with each port site. The horizontal
component of ground acceleration for three levels of ground shaking is estimated by using different ground motion attenuation
relations (GMAR) including one country-specific GMAR for Peninsular India. Uncertainty in seismic hazard computations is handled
by using logic tree approach to develop uniform hazard spectra for 5% damping which are consistent with the specified three
levels of ground shaking. Using recorded acceleration time history of Bhuj 2001 earthquake as the input time motion, synthetic
time histories are generated to match the developed designed response spectra to study site-specific responses of port sites
during different levels of ground shaking. It is observed that the Mundra and Kandla port sites are most vulnerable sites
for seismic hazard as estimated CLE ground motion is in order of 0.79 and 0.48 g for Mundra and Kandla port sites, respectively.
Hazira and Dahej port sites have comparatively less hazard with estimated CLE ground motion of 0.17 and 0.11 g, respectively.
The ground amplification factor is observed at all sites which ranges from 1.3 to 2.0 for the frequency range of 1.0–2.7 Hz.
The obtained spectral accelerations for the three levels of ground motions and obtained transfer functions for each port sites
are compared with provisions made in Indian seismic code IS:1893-Part 1 (2002). The outcome of present study is recommended for further performance-based design to evaluate the seismic response of the
port structures with respect to various performance levels. 相似文献
6.
A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Carlo Meletti Fabrizio Galadini Gianluca Valensise Massimiliano Stucchi Roberto Basili Salvatore Barba Gianfranco Vannucci Enzo Boschi 《Tectonophysics》2008,450(1-4):85-108
We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献
7.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the archaeological site of Vijayapura in south India in order to obtain hazard consistent seismic input ground-motions for seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, where warranted. For this purpose the standard Cornell-McGuire approach, based on seismogenic zones with uniformly distributed seismicity is employed. The main features of this study are the usage of an updated and unified seismic catalogue based on moment magnitude, new seismogenic source models and recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in logic tree framework. Seismic hazard at the site is evaluated for level and rock site condition with 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and the corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGAs) are 0.074 and 0.142 g, respectively. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the site are compared to the Indian code-defined spectrum. Comparisons are also made with results from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA 2010), in terms of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.25 s for 475- and 2475-yr return periods. Results of the present study are in good agreement with the PGA calculated from isoseismal map of the Killari earthquake, \({\hbox {M}}_{\mathrm{w}} = 6.4\) (1993). Disaggregation of PSHA results for the PGA and spectral acceleration (\({\hbox {S}}_{\mathrm{a}}\)) at 0.5 s, displays the controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to moderate magnitude with the source being at a short distance from the study site. Deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) is also carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. The UHS corresponding to 475-yr return period (RP) is used to define the target spectrum and accordingly, the spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms are selected from the suite of recorded accelerograms. 相似文献
8.
In this part of our study the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Tulbagh was performed. The applied procedure is parametric and consists essentially of two steps. The first step is applicable to the area in the vicinity of Tulbagh and requires an estimation of the area-specific parameters, which, in this case, is the mean seismic activity rate, , the Gutenberg-Richter parameter, b, and the maximum regional magnitude, mmax. The second step is applicable to the Tulbagh site, and consists of parameters of distribution of amplitude of the selected ground motion parameter. The current application of the procedure provides an assessment of the PSHA in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA). The procedure permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The historical part of the catalogue only contains the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several subcatalogues, each assumed complete above a specified threshold of magnitude. In the analysis, the uncertainty in the determination of the earthquake was taken into account by incorporation of the concept of `apparent magnitude'. The PSHA technique has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at individual sites without the subjective judgement involved in the definition of seismic source zones, when the specific active faults have not been mapped or identified, and where the causes of seismicity are not well understood. The results of the hazard assessment are expressed as probabilities that specified values of PGA will be exceeded during the chosen time intervals, and similarly for the spectral accelerations. A worst case scenario sketches the possibility of a maximum PGA of 0.30g. The results of the hazard assessment can be used as input to a seismic risk assessment. 相似文献
9.
Attenuation relationships are commonly used for engineering studies to estimate the peak ground acceleration values. This
paper presents the role of attenuation relationship in defining the seismic hazard in an area. It is seen that the seismic
hazard in an area, which is calculated using attenuation relationships, is mostly controlled by the type of attenuation relationship
used in the study. The present work aims to study the effect of attenuation relationship on seismic hazard study. In the present
work, seismic hazard maps have been prepared in the seismically very active northeast Himalaya using the approach given by
Joshi and Patel (Tectonophysics 283:289–310, 1997). The attenuation relationships of Jain et al. (2000), Sharma (2000), Joyner and Boore (Bull Seism Soc Am 71:2011–2038, 1981) and Abrahamson and Litehiser (Bull Seism Soc Am 79:549–580, 1989) have been considered in the present study. Among all considered attenuation relationships, the Abrahamson and Litehiser
(Bull Seism Soc Am 79:549–580, 1989) attenuation relationship gives the least root mean square error between the recorded and calculated peak ground acceleration
values. Therefore, the same has been used to define attenuation characteristic of the region. The mean and standard deviation
of peak ground acceleration values at all the observation points due to above-mentioned attenuation relationships in the NE
Himalayas are calculated. The study shows that the Zone III covers an area of 81,000 km2 and Zone II of 96,000 km2 in the map prepared using the mean peak ground acceleration values, whereas the area of Zone IV increases by 40,000 km2 when the map is prepared by adding the standard deviation values in the mean peak ground acceleration values, and only Zone
II is left with 183,000 km2 when the standard deviation values are subtracted from the mean. This high standard deviation is due to the difference in
the peak ground acceleration values obtained from different events. This study shows that a rigorous test needs to be done
for selecting attenuation relationship for any hazard study in a given area. 相似文献
10.
The conventional Cornell’s source-based approach of probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment (PSHA) has been employed all around
the world, whilst many studies often rely on the use of computer packages such as FRISK (McGuire FRISK—a computer program
for seismic risk analysis. Open-File Report 78-1007, United States Geological Survey, Department of Interior, Washington 1978) and SEISRISK III (Bender and Perkins SEISRISK III—a computer program for seismic hazard estimation, Bulletin 1772. United
States Geological Survey, Department of Interior, Washington 1987). A “black-box” syndrome may be resulted if the user of the software does not have another simple and robust PSHA method
that can be used to make comparisons. An alternative method for PSHA, namely direct amplitude-based (DAB) approach, has been
developed as a heuristic and efficient method enabling users to undertake their own sanity checks on outputs from computer
packages. This paper experiments the application of the DAB approach for three cities in China, Iran, and India, respectively,
and compares with documented results computed by the source-based approach. Several insights regarding the procedure of conducting
PSHA have also been obtained, which could be useful for future seismic-hazard studies. 相似文献
11.
地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在我国大陆地区运用基于力学模型的Newmark位移分析方法开展地震滑坡危险性定量评估,尚处在起步阶段.为了进一步明确地震滑坡危险性概念和改进推广基于力学模型的评估方法,首先阐明了狭义的地震滑坡危险性预测评估与震后反演评估的关系; 同时为了应对地震应急、震后重建及潜在地震条件下的不同评估需求,初步提出了广义的地震滑坡危险性评估框架.随后申述了基于Newmark位移分析的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的理论基础、方法分类及最新进展,并以汶川地震滑坡危险性快速评估为例,剖析了目前影响评估有效性的不确定性及空间数据质量等问题,指出了基于力学模型的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的改进方向.建议开展潜在地震及其诱发滑坡危险性的耦合评估,建立适用于我国大陆地区地震滑坡位移分析的经验模型,以便为国家层面的地震滑坡危险性区划服务. 相似文献
12.
Rigorous and objective testing of seismic hazard assessments against the real seismic activity must become the necessary precondition for any responsible seismic risk estimation. Because seismic hazard maps seek to predict the shaking that would actually occur, the reference hazard maps for the Italian seismic code, obtained by probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), and the alternative ground shaking maps based on the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA), are cross-compared and tested against the real seismicity for the territory of Italy. The comparison between predicted intensities and those reported for past earthquakes shows that models generally provide rather conservative estimates, except for PGA with 10 % probability of being exceeded in 50 years, which underestimates the largest earthquakes. In terms of efficiency in predicting ground shaking, measured accounting for the rate of underestimated events and for the territorial extent of areas characterized by high seismic hazard, the NDSHA maps appear to outscore the PSHA ones. 相似文献
13.
This paper presents probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of Tehran, Iran, accounting the effect of nonlinear soil response. It is well-known that soil nonlinearity and its accurate prediction could play important role in seismic hazard study. For this purpose, two different approaches have been carried out for predicting the hazard curves by (1) applying site modifications to the ground motion prediction equation based on generic site classes and use of constant coefficients (2) using a close-form solution that modifies the hazard results at the rock level. Also, efficiency of the Monte Carlo method in modeling of amplification function for the six selected sites in the study area was examined. Results showed important effect of nonlinear soil response mainly for frequencies lower than 8?Hz, which should be considered properly in hazard estimation. As an interesting subject, influence of soil plasticity index (PI) on hazard estimation of clayey sites including the nonlinear soil response was evaluated. 相似文献
14.
The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the Esfarayen-Bojnurd railway using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) method. This method was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. Attenuation equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 1.2 × 1.2 km covering the study area, ground acceleration for every node was calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to return periods of 74, 475 and 2475 years. 相似文献
15.
Mahmoud Hamlaoui K. Vanneste K. Baddari L. Louail B. Vleminckx A. Demdoum 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(11):238
This work involves updating the evaluation of seismic hazard in Northeast Algeria by a probabilistic approach. This reassessment attempts to resolve inconsistencies between seismic zoning in regional building codes and is further motivated by the need to refine the input data that are used to evaluate seismic hazard scenarios. We adopted a seismotectonic model that accounts for differences in interpretations of regional seismicity. We then performed a probabilistic assessment of regional seismic hazard in Northeast Algeria. Based on a homogeneous earthquake catalog and geological and seismotectonic data gathered in the first part of the study, a seismotectonic zoning map was created and seven risk areas were identified. For each area, peak ground acceleration hazard maps were produced. Details of the calculations are provided, including hazard curves at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.33, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 s and uniform hazard spectra at urban locations in the area, including Sétif, Constantine, Kherrata, Bejaia, and Jijel. 相似文献
16.
The assessment of local site effects on seismic ground motions is of great importance in earthquake engineering practice.
Several destructive earthquakes in the past have demonstrated that the amplification of ground motion and associated damage
to structures due to local site conditions is a significant consideration in earthquake hazard analysis. A recent paper published
in this journal highlights the hazard posed by earthquakes in the megacity of Kolkata in India due to its seismic and geological
settings. The seismic hazard assessment study speculates that the deep alluvial deposit in the city may increase the seismic
hazard probably due to the amplification of the seismic energies. This paper focuses on the seismic response studies of the
various soil strata (i.e. for local subsurface conditions) obtained from various construction sites in the city for predicted
earthquake. It is very well recognized that site response studies (a part of seismic microhazard zonation for urban areas)
are the first step towards performance-based foundation design or seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy. One of the
problems for carrying out site-specific study in Kolkata is the lack of recorded strong motion data in the city. Hence, this
paper outlines a methodology to carry out site-specific study, where no strong motion data or seismic data are available.
The methodology uses wavelet-based spectrum compatibility approach to generate synthetic earthquake motions and equivalent
linear method for seismic site response analysis. The Mega City of Kolkata has been considered to explain the methodology.
Seismic hazard zonation map by the Bureau of Indian Standards classifies the City of Kolkata as moderate seismic zone (Zone
III) with a zone factor 0.16. On the other hand, GSHAP(Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) map which is based on 10%
probability of exceedance in 50 years specifies a maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 1.6 m/s2 (0.163 g) for this region. In the present study, the seismic response has been carried out based on GSHAP. The results of
the analysis indicate the amplification of ground motion in the range of 4.46–4.82 with the fundamental period ranging from
0.81 to 1.17 s. Furthermore, the maximum spectral accelerations vary in the range of 0.78–0.95 g. 相似文献
17.
Probabilistic seismic hazard of Pakistan, Azad-Jammu and Kashmir 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
The seismic hazard study for Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir has been conducted by using probabilistic approach in terms
of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in m/s2 and also seismic hazard response spectra for different cities. A new version of Ambraseys et al. (Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53,
2005) ground acceleration model is used, and parameterization is based on most recent updated earthquake catalogs that consisted
of 14,000 events. The threshold magnitude was fixed at M
w 4.8, but seismic zones like northern Pakistan–Tajikistan, Hindukush and northern Afghanistan–Tajikistan border had M
w 5.2. The average normalized ‘a’ and ‘b’ values for all zones are 6.15 and 0.95, respectively. Seismicity of study area was modeled, and ground motion was computed
for eight frequencies (0.025, 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 s) for different annual exceedance rates of 0.02, 0.01, 0.005,
0.002 and 0.001 (return periods 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1,000 years) for stiff rocks at the gridding of 0.1° × 0.1°. Seismic
hazard maps based on computed PGA for 0.02, 0.01 and 0.002 annual exceedance are prepared. These maps indicate the earthquake
hazard of Pakistan and surrounding areas in the form of acceleration contour lines, which are in agreement with geological
and seismotectonic characteristics of the study area. The maximum seismic hazard values are found at Muzaffarabad, Gilgit
and Quetta areas. 相似文献
18.
Natural Hazards - This study examines the effect of the procedures used in three different probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods for estimating the rates of exceedance of ground... 相似文献
19.
India is prone to earthquake hazard; almost 65 % area falls in high to very high seismic zones, as per the seismic zoning map of the country. The Himalaya and the Indo-Gangetic plains are particularly vulnerable to high seismic hazard. Any major earthquake in Himalaya can cause severe destruction and multiple fatalities in urban centers located in the vicinity. Seismically induced ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction are the two main factors responsible for severe damage to the structures, especially, built on soft sedimentary environment. These are essentially governed by the size of earthquake, epicentral distance and geology of the area. Besides, lithology of the strata, i.e., sediment type, grain size and their distribution, thickness, lateral discontinuity and ground water depth, play an important role in determining the nature and degree of destruction. There has been significant advancement in our understanding and assessment of these two phenomena. However, data from past earthquakes provide valuable information which help in better estimation of ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction for evaluation of seismic risk in future and planning the mitigation strategies. In this paper, we present the case studies of past three large Indian earthquakes, i.e., 1803 Uttaranchal earthquake (Mw 7.5); 1934 Bihar–Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.1) and 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.7) and discuss the role of soft sediments particularly, alluvial deposits in relation to the damage pattern due to amplified ground motions and soil liquefaction induced by the events. The results presented in the paper are mainly focused around the sites located on the river banks and experienced major destruction during these events. It is observed that the soft sedimentary sites located even far from earthquake epicenter, with low water saturation, experienced high ground motion amplification; while the sites with high saturation level have undergone soil liquefaction. We also discuss the need of intensifying studies related to ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction in India as these are the important inputs for detailed seismic hazard estimation. 相似文献
20.
This article presents the results of deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (DSHA and PSHA) of the city of Hamedan and its neighboring regions. This historical city is one of the developing cities located in the west of Iran. For this reason, the DSHA and PSHA approaches have been used for the assessment of seismic hazards and earthquake risk evaluation. To this purpose, analyses have been carried out considering the historic and instrumented earthquakes, geologic and seismotectonic parameters of the region covering a radius of 100?km, keeping Hamedan as the center. Therefore, in this research, we studied the main faults and fault zones in the study area and calculated the length and distance of faults from the center of Hamedan. In the next step, we measured the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) and peak ground acceleration (PGA) using both DSHA and PSHA approaches and utilized the various equations introduced by different researchers for this purpose. The results of DSHA approach show that the MCE-evaluated value is 7.2 Richter, which might be created by Nahavand fault activities in this region. The PGA value of 0.56?g will be obtained from Keshin fault. The results of PSHA approach show that the MCE-evaluated value is 7.6 Richter for a 0.64 probability in a 50-year period. The PGA value of 0.45?g will be obtained from Keshin fault. Seismic hazard parameters have been evaluated considering the available earthquake data using Gutenberg?CRichter relationship method. The ??a?? and ??b?? parameters were estimated 5.53 and 0.68, respectively. 相似文献