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1.
The horizontal and vertical structure of the 3–5-day and 6–9-day easterly waves over West Africa and tropical Atlantic are
investigated. NCEP/NCAR reanalyses are used for the period 1979–1995 to produce a 17-year climatology of both 3–5-day and
6–9-day easterly waves. Composite patterns of convection, wind, temperature and vertical velocity are analysed with respect
to the following: the modulation by 3–5-day and 6–9-day wave regimes; the contrasts between the ITCZ (5°N–10°N) and the Sahelo-Saharan
band (15°N–20°N); the difference between land and ocean, and seasonal variations. Similarities and differences in the characteristics
of the two wave regimes are identified.
Received: 18 August 1999 / Accepted: 14 March 2001 相似文献
2.
E. A. Afiesimama 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2007,90(1-2):103-111
Summary The paper examines the annual cycle of the mid-tropospheric easterly jet (MTJ) over West Africa against the background of
many reviews indicating different locations and characteristics of the jet and considering it as a summer feature. NCEP–NCAR
reanalysis zonal wind datasets for the period 1971–2000 and upper air datasets over the region are used. The results exhibit
realistic spatial structure of the easterly jet. The long-term mean of the datasets suggests that the jet over West Africa
is not only a summer feature but can also be found in winter with the same order of magnitude in the wind velocity at the
core. The jet axis is located at about lat. 2° N close to the Guinean Coast in winter and at lat. 14° N in summer. The meridional
oscillation of the jet suggests that as it advances northward, it maintains an altitude of 700 hPa in winter and transits
in mid-spring to 650 hPa and reaches 600 hPa in summer. In the retreat, it displaces to 650 hPa at the end of September rather
sharply to reach 700 hPa in October. The jet’s core has been observed to have a northeast–southwest orientation from season
to season, covering a longitude of 29° from its southernmost to the northernmost positions. 相似文献
3.
Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) at near-global scale (60 °N–40 °S) and May to October rainfall amounts in
West Africa (16 °N–5 °N; 16 °W–16 °E) are first used to investigate the seasonal and interannual evolutions of their relationship.
It is shown that West African rainfall variability is associated with two types of oceanic changes: (1) a large-scale evolution
involving the two largest SSTA leading eigenmodes (16% of the total variance with stronger loadings in the equatorial and
southern oceans) related to the long-term (multiannual) component of rainfall variability mainly expressed in the Sudan–Sahel
region; and (2) a regional and seasonally coupled evolution of the meridional thermal gradient in the tropical Atlantic due
to the linear combination of the two largest SSTA modes in the Atlantic (11% with strong inverse loadings over the northern
and southern tropics) which is associated with the interannual and quasi-decadal components of regional rainfall in West Africa.
Linear regression and discriminant analyses provide evidence that the main July–September rainfall anomalies in Sudan–Sahel
can be detected with rather good skills using the leading (April–June) or synchronous (July–September) values of the four
main oceanic modes. In particular, the driest conditions over Sahel, more marked since the beginning of the 1970s, are specifically
linked to the warm phases of the two global modes and to cold/warm anomalies in the northern/southern tropical Atlantic. Idealized
but realistic SSTA patterns, obtained from some basic linear combinations of the four main oceanic modes appear sufficient
to generate quickly (from mid-July to the end of August) significant West African rainfall anomalies in model experiments,
consistent with the statistical results. The recent negative impact on West African rainfall exerted by the global oceanic
forcing is primarily due to the generation of subsidence anomalies in the mid-troposphere over West Africa. When an idealized
north to south SSTA gradient is added in the tropical Atlantic, strong north to south height gradients in the middle levels
appear. These limit the northward excursion of the rainbelt in West Africa: the Sahelian area experiences drier conditions
due to the additive effect (subsidence anomalies+latitudinal blocking) while over the Guinea regions wet conditions do not
significantly increase, since the subsidence anomalies and the blocking effect act here in opposite ways.
Received: 26 June 1997 / Accepted: 3 October 1997 相似文献
4.
The Community Climate Model Version 3.6 is used to simulate the mean climate of West Africa during the Northern Hemisphere summer season (June-August). The climate model uses prescribed climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and observed SSTs during the 1979-1993 period. Two important circulation features, the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), are found in the simulations but a westerly wind bias is found with respect to 700 hPa winds. Consequently, easterly waves and rain rates are poorly simulated. The primary cause of the poorly simulated AEJ is the advection of cold air from Europe producing a cold bias over northern Africa and a weaker than observed meridional temperature gradient. The cold bias is caused by an eastward displacement of the simulated Azores surface high into Western Europe creating a stronger than observed meridional sea level pressure gradient over northern Africa. This bias systematically occurs in simulations using both climatological and observed SSTs. The biases in sea level pressure, temperature and zonal winds have the potential to produce poor regional climate model results for West Africa if the meteorological output from the CCM3 is used as lateral boundaries. Moreover, these biases introduce uncertainties to West African GCM sensitivity studies associated with interannual variability, land-use change and elevated anthropogenic greenhouse gases. 相似文献
5.
Dr. J. A. Adedoyin 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1997,62(1-2):79-89
Summary An inviscid form of the hydrodynamical equations is solved with enhanced horizontal shear, which is a synoptic feature consistent with stronger African Easterly Jet (AEJ) in Sahelian dry years, for unstable waves generated along the boundary between the two tropospheric air masses in tropical north Africa (i.e. the moist south-westerlies and the dry north-easterlies). Using a two-layer model of the atmosphere in order to correctly simulate the tropospheric synoptic situation in the sub-region, results show that the mode of the waves which is known to be fundamental to the development of West African squall lines is more unstable in dry years. This instability is found to be most-pronounced when the surface of discontinuity between the south-westerlies and the north-easterlies is at 700 mb level. Further, it is shown that in Sahelian dry years, the zone of these unstable waves shifts slightly southwards. This shift causes a deficit in rainfall in West African isohyet bands north of latitude 12°. The persistence of this deficit is linked with the continuous warming, in July, August and September of the 18-year period 1969–1986, of the three oceans (Indian, Pacific and South Atlantic) whose sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies influence rainfall in tropical north Africa. It is shown that anytime these oceans warm up anomalously, the strength of the AEJ is enhanced leading to the climate-change process of: SST anomaly, increased AEJ strength, southward shift of the zone of squall-inducing waves and consequent reduction in total annual rainfall north of latitude 12° in tropical north Africa.With 5 Figures 相似文献
6.
Maintenance and oscillation mechanisms of summer tropical upper-tropospheric easterlies 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The mechanisms of the maintenance and oscillation of 1982 summer tropical 200-hPa mean easterly flow and extra-long waves
are investigated in terms of the energy equations in wavenumber-frequency space. Calculation results show that the difference
in heating between land and sea and the boundary effect serve as the main source of energy; frictional dissipation as the
sink; the conversion of available potential energy into kinetic takes place dominantly in the waves of number 1–2 such transformation
is accomplished in just a small amount in zonal mean flow and therefore can be ignored because of the value.
In the interaction between wave and zonal mean flow, the latter loses its available potential and gains kinetic energy. The
tropical easterly belt over 20°N-5°S is found barotropically stable and that over 10°-5°S, unstable. The waves of number 2
and 1 manifest themselves a primary source and sink of kinetic energy, respectively, in the interplay between waves and between
zonal mean flow and wave.
It is found that zonal mean flow and the waves of number 1-2 have a roughly 40-and 20-day oscillational period of kinetic
energy, respectively, whose primary mechanism is the transfer of barotropic energy, the conversion of baroclinic energy, and
the boundary effect. 相似文献
7.
Summary Using the ECMWF and NMC analyses, this study documents the composite structures of the African and of the 6–9 day waves. In spite of the fact that the two types of disturbances develop over almost the same area, i.e. Central and West Africa and the tropical Atlantic, during the same season, i.e. summer, in spite of the fact that they have almost the same East-West velocity, i.e. 7–8 degree longitude per day, the structures of the two waves are very different.At 12.5°N, the African wave has an amplitude maximum in the meridional wind component whilst the zonal wind component is almost unperturbed. On the contrary, in the 6–9 day wave, at 12.5°N and also at 12.5°S, the zonal wind component has an amplitude maximum whilst the meridional wind component is very small and there is an amplitude maximum for the meridional wind component at the equator and 20°N.With 9 Figures 相似文献
8.
In this paper, we first apply the assumption h = εh′ of topographic variation (h is the nondimensional topographic height and is a small parameter) to obtain nonlinear equations describing three-wave quasi-resonant
and non-resonant interactions among Rossby waves for zonal wavenumbers 1—3 over a wavenumber-two bottom topography (WTBT).
Some numerical calculations are made with the fourt-order Rung-Kutta Scheme. It is found that for the case without topographic
forcing, the period of three-wave quasi-resonance (TWQR) is found to be independent of the zonal basic westerly wind, but
dependent on the meridional wavenumber and the initial amplitudes. For the fixed initial data, when the frequency mismatch
is smaller and the meridional wavelength is moderate, its period will belong to the 30–60-day period band. However, when the
wavenumber-two topography is included, the periods of the forced quasi-resonant Rossby waves are also found to be strongly
dependent on the setting of the zonal basic westerly wind. Under the same conditions, only when the zonal basic westerly wind
reaches a moderate extent, intraseasonal oscillations in the 30–60-day period band can be found for zonal wavenumbers 1–3.
On the other hand, if three Rossby waves considered have the same meridional wavenumber, three-wave non-resonant interaction
over a WTBT can occur in this case. When the WTBT vanishes, the amplitudes of these Rossby waves are conserved. But in the
presence of a WTBT, the three Rossby waves oscillate with the identical period. The period, over a moderate range of the zonal
basic westerly wind, is in the intraseasonal, 30–60-Day range. 相似文献
9.
Summary Seasonal variations of gravity wave characteristics are investigated using rawinsonde data observed at Pohang observatory,
Korea (36°2′N, 129°23′E) during the one-year period of 1998. Analysis is carried out for two atmospheric layers representing
the troposphere (2–9 km) and stratosphere (17–30 km). There exist clear seasonal variations in amplitudes of temperature and
wind perturbations and wave energy in the stratosphere, with their maxima in wintertime and minima in summertime. A strong
correlation is found between the wave activity and the strength of the jet stream, but there is no clear correlation between
the wave activity and the vertical gradient of static stability. The intrinsic frequency and vertical and horizontal wavelengths
of gravity waves in the stratosphere are 2f–3f, where f is the Coriolis parameter, and 2–3 km and 300–500 km, respectively. The intrinsic phase velocity directs westward in January
and northeastward in July. The vertical flux of the stratospheric zonal momentum is mostly negative except in summertime with
a maximum magnitude in January. Topography seems to be a major source of stratospheric gravity waves in wintertime. Convection
can be a source of gravity waves in summertime, but it is required to know convective sources at nearby stations, due to their
intermittency and locations relative to floating balloons. 相似文献
10.
Coupled ocean-atmosphere surface variability and its climate impacts in the tropical Atlantic region
This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes
of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120 °W–60 °W region using selected historical
files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the
tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System
on the period 1968–1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable
water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress
data over the tropical Atlantic (30 °N–20 °S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies
conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall.
It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal
well observed in the last 20–30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter
periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains
considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter
frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like
Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific.
This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the
relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical processes
at the ocean/atmosphere interface that create anomaly gradients in the meridional plane in a way which tends to alter the
north–south movement of the seasonal cycle. This appears to be consistent with the intrinsic non-dipole character of the tropical
Atlantic surface variability at the interannual time step and over the recent period, but produces abnormal amplitude and/or
delayed excursions of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Connections with continental rainfall are approached through
three (NCEP/NCAR and observed) rainfall indexes over the Nordeste region in Brazil, and the Guinea and Sahel zones in West
Africa. These indices appear to be significantly linked to the SST component of the coupled modes only when the two Atlantic
modes+the ENSO-like Nino3 index are taken into account in the regressions. This suggests that thermal forcing of continental
rainfall is particularly sensitive to the linear combinations of some basic SST patterns, in particular to those that create
meridional thermal gradients. The first mode in the Atlantic is associated with transequatorial pressure, moist static energy
and precipitable water anomaly patterns which can explain abnormal location of the ITCZ particularly in northern winter, and
hence rainfall variations in Nordeste. The second mode is more associated with in-phase variations of the same variables near
the southern edge of the ITCZ, particularly in the Gulf of Guinea during the northern spring and winter. It is primarily linked
to the amplitude and annual phase of the ITCZ excursions and thus to rainfall variations in Guinea. Connections with Sahel
rainfall are less clear due to the difficulty for the model to correctly capture interannual variability over that region
but the second Atlantic mode and the ENSO-like Pacific variability are clearly involved in the Sahel climate interannual fluctuations:
anomalous dry (wet) situations tend to occur when warmer (cooler) waters are present in the eastern Pacific and the gulf of
Guinea in northern summer which contribute to create a northward (southward) transequatorial anomaly gradient in sea level
pressure over West Africa.
Received: 14 April 1998 / Accepted: 24 December 1998 相似文献
11.
D. Narayana Rao H. R. Singh J. R. Kulkarni A. Y. Chandrika S. Vijaya Bhaskara Rao 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2000,73(1-2):55-59
Summary Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere (MST) Radar wind data for the period June through September 1996 have been examined to
study vertical variation of Madden-Jullian Oscillations in wind and eddy kinetic energy (eke) in the normal monsoon season.
The domain of analysis in the vertical is from 6 to 20 km with a height resolution of 150 m. Fast-Fourier-Transformation (FFT)
has been applied to zonal (u), meridional(v) components of wind to extract the Madden-Jullian oscillations and eke. There
are three dominant modes viz., 50–70, 30–40 and 10–20 day periodicity, which contain considerable fraction of energy and show
high degree of vertical variability. The peak amplitude of 50–70 day mode in u, 30–40 mode in v and eke were observed at 16–17 km
just below the tropopause level. The peak amplitudes of 30–40 day mode in u and 50–70 day mode in v were found in the height
region of 13–16 km. To understand the origin and propagation of these waves, wave energy is calculated. The wave energy is
higher at tropospheric heights than at lower stratospheric heights indicating that the origin of these waves is in the troposphere,
and a part of the energy leaks into the stratosphere.
Received September 17, 1998/Revised September 26, 1999 相似文献
12.
The Weather Regional Forecast (WRF) model is used in this study to downscale low-resolution data over West Africa. First, the performance of the regional model is estimated through contemporary period experiments (1981?C1990) forced by ARPEGE-CLIMAT GCM output (ARPEGE) and ERA-40 re-analyses. Key features of the West African monsoon circulation are reasonably well represented. WRF atmospheric dynamics and summer rainfall compare better to observations than ARPEGE forcing data. WRF simulated moisture transport over West Africa is also consistent in both structure and variability with re-analyses, emphasizing the substantial role played by the West African Monsoon (WAM) and African Easterly Jet (AEJ) flows. The statistical significance of potential climate changes for the A2 scenario between 2032 and 2041 is enhanced in the downscaling from ARPEGE by the regional experiments, with substantial rainfall increases over the Guinea Gulf and eastern Sahel. Future scenario WRF simulations are characterized by higher temperatures over the eastern Tropical Atlantic suggesting more evaporation available locally. This leads to increased moisture advection towards eastern regions of the Guinea Gulf where rainfall is enhanced through a strengthened WAM flow, supporting surface moisture convergence over West Africa. Warmer conditions over both the Mediterranean region and northeastern Sahel could also participate in enhancing moisture transport within the AEJ. The strengthening of the thermal gradient between the Sahara and Guinean regions, particularly pronounced north of 10°N, would support an intensification of the AEJ northwards, given the dependance of the jet to the position/intensity of the meridional gradient. In turn, mid-tropospheric moisture divergence tends to be favored within the AEJ region supporting southwards deflection of moist air and contributing to deep moist convection over the Sahel where late summer rainfall regimes are sustained in the context of the A2 scenario regional projections. In conclusion, WRF proved to be a valuable and efficient tool to help downscaling GCM projections over West Africa, and thus assessing issues such as water resources vulnerability locally. 相似文献
13.
Kyu-Myong Kim William K.-M. Lau Yogesh C. Sud Gregory K. Walker 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(1):115-126
Effects of aerosol radiative forcing on the diurnal and seasonal cycles of precipitation over West Africa and eastern Atlantic
Ocean are investigated for the boreal summer season: June–July–August. An eight year (2000–2007) average of GCM simulated
rainfall data is compared with the corresponding TRMM rainfall data. The comparison shows that the amplitude of the diurnal
cycles of rainfall over land and ocean are reasonably well simulated. Over land, the phase of the simulated diurnal cycle
of precipitation peaks several hours earlier than that of the TRMM data. Corresponding differences over the ocean(s) are relatively
smaller. Some of the key features of the aerosol induced model simulated field anomalies are: (a) aerosol direct radiative
forcing which increases the atmospheric stability and reduces the daytime moist convection and convective precipitation; (b)
the aerosol induced changes in the diurnal cycle of precipitation are out of phase with those of the TRMM data over land,
but are in-phase over the ocean; (c) aerosols reduce the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land and enhance
it over ocean. However, the phase of the diurnal cycle is not affected much by the aerosol radiative forcing both over land
and ocean. During the boreal summer, aerosol radiative forcing and induced circulation and precipitation cool the Sahel and
the southern part of Sahara desert more than the adjacent areas to the north and south, thereby shifting the peak meridional
temperature gradient northward. Consequently, an anomalous easterly jet is found north of its climatological location. This
anomalous jet is associated with increased cyclonic circulation to the south of its axis, resulting in an anomalous monsoon
rain belt in the Sahel. 相似文献
14.
Studied are the formation processes of dangerous wind waves in the water area of the North Atlantic during three cold periods
(October–March) from 2007 to 2010. Obtained are the estimates of variability of cyclone trajectories, wind fields, and wave
height in the North Atlantic at the intensification of zonal or meridional atmospheric circulation. 相似文献
15.
Summary An attempt has been made in this paper to examine different modes of oscillation in the wind field during different seasons
over Thiruvananthapuram (lat. 8.29° N, long. 76.59° E, located at the extreme southwest coast of India) based on daily upper
air observations for the period from January 1997 to December 1999. A power spectral analysis is carried out with the upper
air data of the station. The study shows that one and half cycle of Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the power spectra
of the meridional wind component exhibit peaks between the period of four days and seven days (corresponding frequency range
between 0.25 day−1 and 0.15 day−1) during all seasons. The seasonal variation of these large-scale oscillations over the station depends upon the background
mean zonal flow, which in turn closely related to the QBO structure.
The time sequence of power spectra shows that the disturbances with periods between four days and seven days dominantly prevail
in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere throughout the year. The regimes of high power spectral intensity in this
period range are maintained in the levels where the mean zonal flow (westerly or easterly) weakens and changes with height.
The study establishes the fact that disturbances (mixed Rossby-gravity waves) acquire maximum power in the winter season whereas
the south-west monsoon exhibits minimum spectral intensity when spreading of energy over a frequency range takes place. 相似文献
16.
基于1979~2015年ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了夏季亚洲高空急流纬向非对称变异特征及其可能的外强迫因子。研究发现夏季亚洲200 hPa纬向风异常EOF第二模态（方差贡献为16.4%）主要表现出了急流纬向非对称的空间异常形态,反映了西亚和东亚区域急流南北偏移的反位相变化。通过进一步的诊断分析,我们发现急流纬向非对称变异与北大西洋海表温度（简称海温）和欧亚陆面热力异常可能存在一定的联系。北大西洋三极型海温异常会激发出向下游传播的异常波列,夏季该波列在欧亚大陆上空的异常环流中心与急流纬向非对称相关的异常环流中心对应一致,其中东欧平原的异常反气旋和巴尔喀什湖附近的异常气旋对西亚急流变化存在影响,东亚地区急流的变化与贝加尔湖北部异常气旋和贝加尔湖南部的异常反气旋有关。对比欧亚土壤湿度关键区内垂直环流,陆面热力异常可能会改变局地环流进而影响急流变异,且这种影响存在区域差异。 相似文献
17.
Effects of the seasonal variation in thermohaline and wind forcing on the abyssal circulation are investigated by using an
ocean general circulation model. To isolate effects of the seasonality in the thermohaline forcing from those in the wind
forcing, we carry out three experiments with (1) annual-mean wind forcing and perpetual-winter thermohaline forcing, (2) annual-mean
wind forcing and seasonal thermohaline forcing, and (3) seasonal wind forcing and seasonal thermohaline forcing. The deep
water under the seasonal thermohaline forcing becomes warmer than under the perpetual-winter thermohaline forcing. Although
the perpetual-winter thermohaline forcing is widely used and believed to reproduce the deep water better than the annual-mean
forcing, the difference between the results of the perpetual-winter and the seasonal thermohaline forcing is significant.
The seasonal variation of the Ekman convergence and divergence produces meridional overturning cells extending to the bottom
because the period of seasonal cycle is shorter than the adjustment timescale by baroclinic Rossby waves. The heat transport
owing to those Ekman flows and temperature anomalies makes the upper water (0–200 m) colder at low to mid-latitudes (40S–40N)
and warmer at high latitudes. Also the deep water becomes warmer owing to the warming of the northern North Atlantic, the
main source region of North Atlantic Deep Water. The model is also synchronously (i.e., without acceleration) integrated with
seasonal forcing for 5400 y. A past study suggested that under seasonal forcing, a sufficient equilibrium state can be achieved
after only decades of synchronous integration following more than 10 000 y of accelerated integration. Here, the result so
obtained is compared with that of the 5400-y synchronous integration. The difference in the global average temperature is
as small as 0.12 °C, and most of the difference is confined to the Southern Ocean.
Received: 1 May 1998 / Accepted: 5 January 1999 相似文献
18.
Moisture exchange between the South Atlantic and southern Africa is examined in this study through zonal moisture transport.
Along the west coast of southern Africa, a multivariate analysis of the zonal flow of moisture computed from NCEP-DOE AMIP
II Re-analyses reveals a primary mode of variability typical of variations in intensity and of the latitudinal migration of
the circulation associated with the midlatitude westerlies and the South Atlantic anticyclone. In austral summer (January–February),
this mode, referred to as the South Atlantic midlatitude mode, is found to be well correlated with rainfall over southern
Africa (i.e. to the south of the upper lands surrounding the Congo basin). Its positive/negative phases are found to correspond
with surface pressures changes over the South Atlantic region in austral summer when the South Atlantic anticyclone is shifted
northward/southward respectively. Such changes are accompanied by dipole-like SST anomalies in the midlatitude South Atlantic
Ocean, while simultaneous SST anomalies with a similar structure are also found over South Indian Ocean regions. In January–February,
positive/negative events linked to the South Atlantic midlatitude mode are marked by meridional shifts (northward/southward)
and weakening/strengthening of the ITCZ over the southern tropics, together with modulations in intensity (weakened/sustained)
of the Angola low, which could act as a tropical source of moisture for Tropical Temperate Troughs (TTTs). In association
with a strengthened/weakened zonal component of the southern extension of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), this could modulate
the meridional transfer of moisture south of 15°S to the advantage/detriment of Angolan coastal regions, where above/below
rainfall are expected. Variations in the latitudinal position (northward/southward) of the South Atlantic anticyclone, and
thus of the midlatitude westerlies, are also found to reduce/favour moisture advection towards southern Africa subtropics
allowing the southern Indian trades to penetrate less/more over the subcontinent south of 25°S. This would create a situation
where convection processes are inhibited/supported within the SICZ/TTTs region resulting in drier/wetter conditions locally
for positive/negative events respectively. 相似文献
19.
Summary ?This paper presents an objective analysis of the structure of daily rainfall variability over the South American/South Atlantic
region (15°–60° W and 0°–40° S) during individual austral summer months of November to March. From EOF analysis of satellite
derived daily rainfall we find that the leading mode of variability is represented by a highly coherent meridional dipole
structure, organised into 2 extensive bands, oriented northwest to southeast across the continent and Atlantic Ocean. We argue
that this dipole structure represents variability in the meridional position of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ).
During early and later summer, in the positive (negative) phase of the dipole, enhanced (suppressed) rainfall over eastern
tropical Brazil links with that over the subtropical and extra-tropical Atlantic and is associated with suppressed (enhanced)
rainfall over the sub-tropical plains and adjacent Atlantic Ocean. This structure is indicative of interaction between the
tropical, subtropical and temperate zones. Composite fields from NCEP reanalysis products (associated with the major positive
and negative events) show that in early and late summer the position of the SACZ is associated with variability in: (a) the
midlatitude wave structure, (b) the position of the continental low, and (c) the zonal position of the South Atlantic Subtropical
High. Harmonic analysis of the 200 hPa geopotential anomaly structure in the midlatitudes indicates that reversals in the
rainfall dipole structure are associated primarily with variability in zonal wave 4. There is evidence of a wave train extending
throughout the midlatitudes from the western Pacific into the SACZ region. During positive (negative) events the largest anomalous
moisture advection occurs within westerlies (easterlies) primarily from Amazonia (the South Atlantic). In both phases a convergent
poleward flow results along the leading edge of the low-level trough extending from the tropics into temperate latitudes.
High summer events differ from those in early and late summer in that the rainfall dipole is primarily associated with variability
in the phase of zonal wave 3, and that tropical-temperate link is not clearly evident in positive events.
Received May 31, 2001; revised October 17, 2001; accepted June 13, 2002 相似文献
20.
Summary Teleconnections between the seasonal rainfall anomalies of March through May (“long-rains”) over eastern Africa (Uganda,
Kenya and Tanzania) and the lower equatorial stratospheric (30-mb) zonal winds for the 32-year period 1964–1995 are examined
using statistical methods. The analysis is based on the application of the simple correlation method and QBO/rainfall composite
analysis. A statistical study of spatial correlation patterns is made in an effort to understand the climatic associations
between the equatorial stratospheric zonal wind and regional rainfall at the interannual scale. The aim of this analysis is
to establish whether this global signal can be employed as predictor variable in the long-range forecasts. The study is part
of an ongoing investigation, which aims at designing a comprehensive and objective, multi-variate-forecast system of seasonal
rainfall over eastern Africa. The correlation parameters include simultaneous (zero lag), and the non-zero lag correlations.
The statistical significance of the correlation coefficient [r] is tested based on the Monte Carlo t-statistical method, and
the standard correlation tables.
Our results indicate significant positive simultaneous and non-zero lag correlations between rainfall over parts of East Africa
and lower equatorial stratospheric zonal wind during the months of March–May and June–August. Significantly high correlations
are concentrated over the western regions of eastern Africa with peak values of (+ 0.8) observed over these areas. These associations
have been observed to be more prominent during lag than in the simultaneous correlations. Strong month to month lag coherence
is observed after June prior to the onset of the March to May seasonal rainfall and persists for more than 4 months. Correlation
indices for the eight homogeneous rainfall regions over eastern Africa which are derived from our Empirical Orthogonal Function/Cluster
analysis shows a clear annual cycle with significant relationships between QBO and seasonal rainfall occurring during boreal
summer (June–August). The season with the weakest relationship is December–February. It is however, noted that although the
coherence between QBO-Index and rainfall during the long-rains is significantly high, there are some wet/dry years for which
the relationship between the long rains and the lower equatorial zonal wind are not significant (for example in 1966, 1973
and 1983). These years have been associated with strong and prolonged ENSO events. Preliminary comparison of the QBO-Index
and the newly found Indian Ocean dipole mode index (DMI) indicates that the two climate variables may be significantly related.
Of the six high dipole mode events in the Indian Ocean that were observed in 1961, 1967, 1972, 1982, 1994 and 1997, all except
1967 coincided with the easterly phase of the QBO-Index and below normal rainfall over western highlands of eastern Africa.
Contingency analyses indicate 60 percent likelihood for the occurrence of above normal rainfall during the westerly phase
of the QBO and 63 percent likelihood of below normal rainfall during the east phase of the QBO. Our correlation analysis results
indicate that about 36 percent of the variability of the long-rains season over eastern Africa are associated with the QBO-Index.
Our results further show that the tendency of the lower equatorial stratosphe ric zonal wind prior to the season is a good
indicator of the performance of the long rains of eastern Africa. A positive OND minus JJA QBO trend is a good indicator for
the non-occurrence of drought over eastern Africa. Similarly, a negative trend is a good indicator for the non-occurrence
of high rainfall over the region. The identified characteristics and domain of influence of the QBO signal in different regions
of East Africa suggests that this global oscillator may offer useful input to objective multi-variate rainfall prediction
models for eastern Africa.
Received June 4, 1999 Revised November 25, 1999 相似文献