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1.
Tomasz Walczykiewicz 《Water Resources》2014,41(6):763-773
Due to the fact that water management responds to changing natural and socio-economic conditions its future perspective, depending on multiple and variable factors, is difficult to predict using traditional prognostic methods. The examined hypothesis shows that the scenario development process is a useful method for long-term strategic planning in the water management sector. Research was completed on the basis of expert assessments and panel discussions and structured as a scenario for the development process. The IPCC Emission Scenarios constitute the future development context. The results show that this predictive method is effective. Sensitivity of the results of the applied techniques of development scenarios shows a need for further research. 相似文献
2.
Forecasts of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics in the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha) in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate scenarios of SRES family, corresponding to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The forecasts have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model of heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN. 相似文献
3.
We apply a newly developed numerical method to improve the Moho geometry by the implementation of gravity data. This method utilizes expressions for the gravimetric forward and inverse modeling derived in a frequency domain. Methods for a spectral analysis and synthesis of the gravity field and crust density structures are applied in the gravimetric forward modeling of the consolidated crust-stripped gravity disturbances, which have a maximum correlation with the (a priori) Moho model. These gravity disturbances are obtained from the Earth’s gravity disturbances after applying the topographic and stripping gravity corrections of major known anomalous crust density structures; in the absence of a global mantle model, mantle density heterogeneities are disregarded. The isostatic scheme applied is based on a complete compensation of the crust relative to the upper mantle density. The functional relation is established between the (unknown) Moho depths and the complete crust-stripped isostatic gravity disturbances, which according to the adopted isostatic scheme have (theoretically) a minimum correlation with the Moho geometry. The system of observation equations, which describes the relation between spherical functions of the isostatic gravity field and the Moho geometry, is defined by means of a linearized Fredholm integral equation of the first kind. The Moho depths are determined based on solving the gravimetric inverse problem. The regularization is applied to stabilize the ill-posed solution. This numerical procedure is utilized to determine the Moho depths globally. The gravimetric result is presented and compared with the seismic Moho model. Our gravimetric result has a relatively good agreement with the CRUST2.0 Moho model by means of the RMS of differences (of 3.5 km). However, the gravimetric solution has a systematic bias. We explain this bias between the gravimetric and seismic Moho models by the unmodelled mantle heterogeneities and uncertainties in the CRUST2.0 global crustal model. 相似文献
4.
In autumn of 1966 on the northern slope of Kliuchevskoy volcano a chain of new adventive craters broke out at the height of about 2200 m. Eighty-four hours before the beginning of the eruption a swarm of preliminary volcanic earthquakes had appeared. The number of preliminary shocks was 457 with total energy of 4 × 1017 erg. With the beginning of the lava flow the earthquakes stopped and a continuous volcanic tremor appeared. The total energy of volcanic tremor amounts to 1016 erg. During the eruption numerous explosive earthquakes with the energy of 1015–1016 erg were recorded and besides the microbarograph of the Volcanostation recorded 393 explosions with an energy more than 1013 erg and their total energy was equal to 1017 erg. All together it has been formed 8 explosive craters and the lowest 9th crater was effusive. The slag cone was formed round this effusive crater, the lava effusion of basaltic-andesite composition (52,5% SiO2) tooke place from the lava boccas at the cone base and from the crater. The lava flow covered a distance of 10 km along the valley of the Sopochnoy river and descended to a height of about 800 m. The lava flow velocity at the outflow reached 800 m/hr, the lava temperature was 1050°C. The effused lava volume amounts to 0.1 km3. The eruption stopped on December 25–26, 1966. 相似文献
5.
The last 300 years of Vesuvius history are reconstructed as a chronological succession of 4 phenomenological states: i) repose, ii) persistent activity, iii) intermediate eruption and iv) final eruption. It turns out that the times of permanence in each state are distributed according to the same exponential law. Vesuvius activity is then described by a Markov chain of these 4 states, with transition probabilities determined from the previous phenomenological analysis. The model reproduces the Vesuvius activity between 1694 and 1872 and possibly also in the 1872–1944 period. It turns out that, at least between 1694 and 1872, the volcano was behaving like a quasistationary system with 4 equilibrium states, perturbed by a stochastic noise responsible for occasional transitions from an equilibrium state to another. Major physical or structural changes of the volcanic system around 1872 and possibly in the whole subsequent period, are clearly shown by the statistical analysis. 相似文献
6.
Tanna, one of the southernmost islands of the New Hebrides volcanic arc, is made of Late Pliocene to Recent island arc tholeiitic basalts and andesites, with SiO2 contents ranging from 45 to 57%. These lavas are highly porphyritic (30–50% in volume): phenocrysts of plagioclase are the most abundant, together with olivine and clinopyroxene. The groundmass contain plagioclase, augite, olivine, magnetite and glass; pigeonite, tridymite, sanidine and, rarely, biotite may also occur. The olivines and clinopyroxenes show an iron enrichment from the cores of phenocrysts to their rims and the groundmass crystals, but their compositional variations are not correlated with the Mg/Fe ratio of bulk host rocks, the most Fe-rich compositions being found in Mg-rich lavas. Plagioclase compositions range from An95 to An60 in the basalts and An60 to An50 in the andesites, but, within each group, they are not correlated with SiO2 or Na2O contents of host lavas. Consequently, the bulk major element compositions of Tanna volcanic rocks cannot be considered as primarily controlled by crystal separation from successive liquids. The oxyde-SiO2 variations diagrams, and the modal compositions and mineral chemistry show that crystal accumulation is the predominant mechanism accounting for bulk rock compositions. However, this does not exclude fractional crystallization: the variation of the calculated groundmass mineralogy strongly suggest the occurrence of crystal removal mainly clinopyroxene and magnetite. 相似文献
7.
The volcanic centre of Monte Seda Oro, N. W. Sardinia, representative of a Cenozoic calc-alkaline andesitic suite of rocks is composed of a variety of rocks ranging from high alumina basalts to dacites. The minerals of basaltic, andesitic and dacitic rocks show only limited variation in chemical composition. The geochemical data suggest that the various rock-types are related by a crystal-liquid fractionation. Least-squate numerical calculations, using major element data, support the derivation of andesites with SiO3 content ranging from 53.8 to 59.0% from basalts having about 48.7% of SiO2 by low pressure crystal fractionation of the phenocryst phases present in these rocks. However, the origin of dacites cannot be readily explained by this mechanism. 相似文献
8.
This Special Issue on “Mass Distribution and Mass Transport in the Earth System: Recent Scientific Progress due to Interdisciplinary Research” reports a number of findings resulting from a collaborative effort run from 2006 until 2013, in the framework of the DFG Priority Program 1257 “Mass Distribution and Mass Transport in the Earth System”. Contributions have been arranged along five lines, i.e. (1) improvements in geodesy: satellite mass monitoring through gravimetry and altimetry, (2) applications in large-scale hydrology, (3) applications in solid Earth research, (4) applications in cryospheric research, (5) applications in ocean sciences. 相似文献
9.
The simultaneous eruption of Mt. Pelée, Martinique and Soufrière, St. Vincent are regarded as the first recognized examples of Pelean-type and St. Vincent-type pyroclastic eruptions. Both produced nuées ardentes, the former usually laterally directed because of the presence of a dome and the latter vertically directed from an open crater. Both volcanoes have subsequently erupted for a second time this century. The 1902–05 and 1929–32 eruptions of Mt. Pelée produced andesite lava of almost identical composition and mineralogy. Both contain two generations of plagioclase, orthopyroxene, Fe-Ti oxide, corroded brown amphibole and olivine rimmed by pyroxene. In contrast, the Soufrière material is more basic in composition varying from basaltic andesite to basalt in 1902–03 and basaltic andesite in 1971–72. The Soufrière material contains two generations of plagioclase (with those of 1971–72 having additional zones of labradorite), clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene, olivine and Fe-Ti oxide. The pyroclastic deposits are strikingly different, those from the Pelean-type eruption are termed «block and ash deposits» being characterised by poorly vesicular lava blocks up to 7 m in diameter, while the St. Vincent-type eruption produced «scoria and ash deposits» containing vesicular ropey blocks or bombs no larger than 1 m in diameter. The differences in styles of eruption are attributed to differences in viscosity and mechanism of eruption of the magmas. Stratigraphic studies of Mt. Pelée reveal that the volcano has produced basaltic andesite scoria and ash deposits from St. Vincent-type eruptions. It is concluded that the recent eruptions of Pelée tapped a deep level magma during both eruptions releasing magma of similar composition, while the 1971 Soufrière magma is thought to be a remnant of the 1903 basaltic magma which remained at a high level within the volcano where it underwent enrichment in plagioclase and loss of olivine and oxide. 相似文献
10.
Ceboruco is a major composite volcano at the western end of the Mexican Volcanic Belt, near the junction between the North American and Pacific plates. The volcano is built from successive eruptions of andesite lavas and pyroclastic rocks, and major eruptions during its history have resulted in the formation of two concentric calderas. The youngest volcanic activity has included the extrusion of dacites within the inner caldera and a voluminous flank eruption of andesite during 1870–72. Fumarolic activity persists to the present day. Chemical analyses show that the lavas are of cale-alkaline type and rangs from andesite (SiO2=58–61%) to acid dacite (SiO2=68%) in composition. The rate of increase of K2O relative to SiO is greater than that in volcanic rocks from the Mexican Volcanic Belt as a whole. This indicates that simple models based on the application of such relationships may not be adequate to explain the petrogenesis of calc-alkaline lavas. 相似文献
11.
The Tertiary and Recent volcanics of Mexico occur in two provinces. The Cordillera Province is made up of about 1700 m of ignimbrite sheets overlain and intercalated in the upper part by olivine basalt and basaltic andesite. The Rio Lerma Province extends transversely across Mexico and in the Valley of Mexico the lavas consist mainly of andesite and dacite, 68 % of those analysed having 62 | 4.7 % SiO2. A total of 108 chemical analyses were made for the major elements, 90 of these including determinations of Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Ba, Th and Pb for two areas, the Valley of Mexico in the Rio Lerma Province and the Guadalajara region which lies at the intersection of the two provinces. Computer constructions of normative components in the basalt tetrahedron and other projections support an origin of partial melting of tholeiitic to pyrolitic material for the production of andesite. The Guadalajara lavas have consistently higher K/SiO2 and K/Rb ratios and lower Mg/SiO2 ratio than the Valley of Mexico rocks suggesting generation at greater depth. 相似文献
12.
E. E. Larson R. L. Reynolds R. Merrill S. Levi M. Ozima Y. Aoki H. Kinoshita S. Zasshu N. Kawai T. Nakajima K. Hirooka 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1974,38(1):361-377
Volcanic rocks from six of the currently or recently active volcances of the Mariana Island are show little variation in major element abundances. SiO2 content averages 51.5 wt.%. The flows are high in Al2O (mean 17.7 wt.%) and Fe oxides (mean 10.1 wt.% calculated as FeO only), and moderate in MgO content (mean 4.7 wt.%), Na2O (mean 2.7 wt.%), and K2O (mean 0.7 wt.%). Only the rocks from Farallon de Pajaros, the northernmost of the Mariana Islands, deviate slightly from the average of the analyses. Three analyses from this island are slightly higher in SiO2 (about 54 wt.%) and Al2O3, and are lower in total Fe oxides and MgO. According to preferred classification, the lavas of the Mariana Islands can be termed mela-andesites, high-alumina basalts, or calc-alkaline (orogenic) basalts. The K2O values (mean 0.7 wt.%) obtained from lavas of the Mariana Islands are significantly higher than the K2O values (about 0.33 wt.%) from volcanics of the Izu chain to the north. Inasmuch as the substantial scatter in location of earthquake foci beneath both arcs prevents accurate delineation of the upper boundary of the Benioff zone, it presently cannot be determined whether this discrepancy in K2O values reflects a difference in depth from the volcanic are to the dipping seismic zone or relates to other phenomena. The older volcanic islands within the Mariana-Bonin island chain apparently defined an island arc system during Eocene to Miocene time. This indicates that the present plane of convergence between the Pacific plate and the Philippine Sea plate has defined the convergence between these plates since Eocene time. 相似文献
13.
Irene Fischer 《Surveys in Geophysics》1975,2(1):3-54
The search for the Figure of the Earth is rooted in the age-old wonder about the world we live in. The ancient mythical notions have developed, under the tutelage of Greek systematic thought, into specific questions of the shape and size of the Earth. The history of these questions, now spanning more than two millenia, shows a continuous refinement in formulation, as each bona fide answer prompted refined measurements which, in turn, started a new round of problems. The change in concept of what one was looking for was, and still is, closely connected with the technical capability and its potential for further development. This change in concept is traced here from ancient times to the present throungh some of its milestones: Anaximander's partly invisible celestial sphere and Pythagoras' spherical Earth; Eratosthenes' exemplary combination of astronomy and land surveying for the dual purpose of determining the size of the spherical Earth and making a map of the habitable world; the identical dual purpose followed by the Académie Royale des Sciences in the 17th century, but on a more sophisticated technical level; the challenge to the spherical concept by Newton's gravitational theory and the absorption of that theory into a wider concept of the Figure of the Earth; the acknowledgment of the irregular geoid by Gauss, Bessel, and Helmert, and the changed significance of the ellipsoid; Heiskanen's and Vening Meinesz' ‘Basic Hypothesis of Geodesy’ concerning the hydrostatic equilibrium of the Earth, and O'Keefe's contradiction on the basis of satelite data; the dream of global surveys come true through satellite geodesy and the accompanying inclusion of the outer gravity field of the Earth into the concept of its Figure; and lastly, the present and projected capability of high precision measurement and the widening of the concept of the Figure of the Earth from 3-dimensional rigidity to 4-dimensional time-dependence. 相似文献
14.
Melting point of germanate forsterite, Mg2GeO4, was raised by compression at the rate of 30°C/GPa. The triple point, at which three phases of olivine- and spinel-type solids and liquid coexisted, was fixed at 1950°C and 3.5GPa. Wen these results are combined with the thermodynamical data of forsterite, Mg2SiO4, it is estimated that the triple point of forsterite lies in a region ranging from 2700° to 3000°C in temperature and from 20 to 30GPa in pressure. 相似文献
15.
D. A. Swanson W. A. Duffield D. B. Jackson D. W. Peterson 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1972,36(1):105-126
Since February 1969 Alae Crater, a 165-m-deep pit crater on the east rift of Kilauea Volcano, has been completely filled with about 18 million m3 of lava. The filling was episodic and complex. It involved 13 major periods of addition of lava to the crater, including spectacular lava falls as high as 100 m, and three major periods of draining of lava from the crater. Alae was nearly filled by August 3, 1969, largely drained during a violent ground-cracking event on August 4, 1969, and then filled to the low point on its rim on October 10, 1969. From August 1970 to May 1971, the crater acted as a reservoir for lava that entered through subsurface tubes leading from the vent fissure 150 m away. Another tube system drained the crater and carried lava as far as the sea, 11 km to the south. Much of the lava entered Alae by invading the lava lake beneath its crust and buoying the crust upward. This process, together with the overall complexity of the filling, results in a highly complicated lava lake that would doubtless be misinterpreted if found in the fossil record. 相似文献
16.
This paper deals with the mineralogical, textural and chemical features of the dunite, peridotite, pyroxenite and gabbroic inclusions present in the Quaternary basalts of the Canary Islands. The mineralogical composition, structure and texture of the inclusions show that most of them have been formed as crystal cumulates from a nonalkaline basaltic magma in the earlier stages of its fractional crystallization. There are no co-genetic relationships between the inclusions and the host basalts, since the latter have a very strong alkaline-olivine character, although there are also some types with tholciitic aflinities. The study of the data leads to the conclusion that these inclusions can be considered as xenoliths from the basic and ultrabasic complexes that form the substratum and which outcrop in some of the Canary Islands. Attention is called to the fact that in many other volcanic zones of the world there has been a previous emplacement of basic and ultramafic layered complexes and is the question opened whether the association between stratiform-complexes and active basaltic volcanism is more frequent than has been assumed up to now. 相似文献
17.
Volcanic rocks on the island of Filicudi are typical of the cale-alkaline association of the Aeolian archipelago, and range in composition from basalt to high-K andesite. All specimens contain abundant phenocrystic plagioclase (cores of An82–97, rims becoming progressively more sodic with increasing Differentiation Index), clinopyroxene, and magnetite; the most basic samples contain olivine, which is replaced by orthopyroxene at around D.I.=44. SiO2 generally increases with time, and this in conjunction with the continuity in mineralogy suggests that the lavas are the differentiation products of a single batch of magma. Least-squares mixing calculations are consistent with a shallow fractional model, as is the variation in trace element abundances. 相似文献
18.
The Tioga Bentonite ranges from a coarse crystal tuff to a tuffaceous shale enclosed in marine strata. It originally was deposited over the entire northeastern United States during the Middle Devonian. Trends in grain size, thickness, and numbers of preserved ash layers indicate a source volcano in west-central or central Virginia. 相似文献
19.
Design and testing of a global climate prediction system based on a coupled climate model 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
A global climate prediction system(PCCSM4) was developed based on the Community Climate System Model, version 4.0, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR), and an initialization scheme was designed by our group. Thirty-year(1981–2010) one-month-lead retrospective summer climate ensemble predictions were carried out and analyzed. The results showed that PCCSM4 can efficiently capture the main characteristics of JJA mean sea surface temperature(SST), sea level pressure(SLP), and precipitation. The prediction skill for SST is high, especially over the central and eastern Pacific where the influence of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is dominant. Temporal correlation coefficients between the predicted Ni?o3.4 index and observed Ni?o3.4 index over the 30 years reach 0.7, exceeding the 99% statistical significance level. The prediction of 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa zonal wind and SLP shows greater skill than for precipitation. Overall, the predictability in PCCSM4 is much higher in the tropics than in global terms, or over East Asia. Furthermore, PCCSM4 can simulate the summer climate in typical ENSO years and the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon well. These preliminary results suggest that PCCSM4 can be applied to real-time prediction after further testing and improvement. 相似文献
20.
Neutron activation analysis of the Taal volcanic ash revealed the presence of unusual amount of scandium in the volcanic ash as compared to the standard basalt BCR-1. The BCR-1 value for Fe/Sc is 2760 while that of Taal ash is about 2649. It is suggested that the eruption was probably characterized by the ejection of scandium-rich materials. Scandium may be used as supplementary evidence in evaluating an impending future Taal volcanic activity. 相似文献