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1.
J. R. Flenley 《Climatic change》1998,39(2-3):177-197
Vegetational history can help us to predict future environments by providing data for testing AGCMs, for indicating the vegetational response to rapid warming and changing CO2 concentrations, and for mathematical modelling of vegetation. Most of the data are palynological, and there are well over 100 pollen diagrams from tropical regions. Maps are presented showing summarized pollen diagrams from the lowlands of South-East Asia and the West Pacific, Tropical Latin America and Tropical Africa. In all these regions there is some evidence suggesting that at the LGM lowland forests were somewhat restricted in area and included montane elements. This is consistent with cooler and drier climate at the LGM. From the montane and lowland areas of these three regions, the pollen evidence is summarized in altitudinal diagrams. These suggest considerable depression of altitudinal zones at the LGM, suggesting temperatures c. 5–10°C cooler than now. These results conflict with earlier oxygen isotope data from marine foraminifera, but do not conflict with more recent oxygen isotope measurements from tropical corals. It is also suggested that altitudinal movements may be partly controlled by CO2 concentration and ultraviolet light. 相似文献
2.
In order to improve the reliability of climate reconstruction, especially the climatologies outside the modern observed climate
space, an improved inverse vegetation model using a recent version of BIOME4 has been designed to quantitatively reconstruct
past climates, based on pollen biome scores from the BIOME6000 project. The method has been validated with surface pollen
spectra from Eurasia and Africa, and applied to palaeoclimate reconstruction. At 6 cal ka BP (calendar years), the climate
was generally wetter than today in southern Europe and northern Africa, especially in the summer. Winter temperatures were
higher (1–5°C) than present in southern Scandinavia, northeastern Europe, and southern Africa, but cooler in southern Eurasia
and in tropical Africa, especially in Mediterranean regions. Summer temperatures were generally higher than today in most
of Eurasia and Africa, with a significant warming from ∼3 to 5°C over northwestern and southern Europe, southern Africa, and
eastern Africa. In contrast, summers were 1–3°C cooler than present in the Mediterranean lowlands and in a band from the eastern
Black Sea to Siberia. At 21 cal ka BP, a marked hydrological change can be seen in the tropical zone, where annual precipitation
was ∼200–1,000 mm/year lower than today in equatorial East Africa compared to the present. A robust inverse relationship is
shown between precipitation change and elevation in Africa. This relationship indicates that precipitation likely had an important
role in controlling equilibrium-line altitudes (ELA) changes in the tropics during the LGM period. In Eurasia, hydrological
decreases follow a longitudinal gradient from Europe to Siberia. Winter temperatures were ∼10–17°C lower than today in Eurasia
with a more significant decrease in northern regions. In Africa, winter temperature was ∼10–15°C lower than present in the
south, while it was only reduced by ∼0–3°C in the tropical zone. Comparison of palaeoclimate reconstructions using LGM and
modern CO2 concentrations reveals that the effect of CO2 on pollen-based LGM reconstructions differs by vegetation type. Reconstructions for pollen sites in steppic vegetation in
Europe show warmer winter temperatures under LGM CO2 concentrations than under modern concentrations, and reconstructions for sites in xerophytic woods/scrub in tropical high
altitude regions of Africa are wetter for LGM CO2 concentrations than for modern concentrations, because our reconstructions account for decreased plant water use efficiency. 相似文献
3.
Feng Xue Yuan Jiang Mingchang Wang Manyu Dong Xinyuan Ding Xianji Yang Muyi Kang 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2020,140(1):15-24
Fully and accurately studying temperature variations in montane areas are conducive to a better understanding of climate modeling and climate-growth relationships on regional scales. To explore the spatio-temporal changes in air and soil temperatures and their relationship in montane areas, on-site monitoring over 2 years (2015 and 2016) was conducted at nine different elevations from 2040 to 2740 m a.s.l. on Luya Mountain in the semiarid region of China. The results showed that the annual mean of air temperature lapse rate (ATLR) was 0.67 °C/100 m. ATLR varied obviously in different months within a range of 0.57~0.79 °C/100 m. The annual mean of the soil temperature lapse rate (STLR) was 0.48 °C/100 m. Seasonally, monthly mean soil temperature did not show a consistent pattern with regard to elevation. The relationships between air and soil temperatures showed piecewise changes. Soil was decoupled from the air temperature in cold winter and early spring. The parameters of the growing season based on the two temperature types had no corresponding relations, and seasonal mean of soil temperature showed the smallest value at mid-elevation rather than in the treeline ecotone. Based on these changes, our results emphasized that altitudinal and seasonal variability caused by local factors (such as snow cover and soil moisture) should be taken into full consideration in microclimate extrapolation and treeline prediction in montane areas, especially in relation to soil temperature. 相似文献
4.
Spatial models of present-day mountain permafrost probability were perturbed to examine potential climate change impacts. Mean annual air temperature (MAAT) changes were simulated by adjusting elevation in the models, and cloud cover changes were examined by altering the partitioning of direct beam and diffuse radiation within the calculation for potential incoming solar radiation (PISR). The effects of changes in MAAT on equilibrium permafrost distribution proved to be more important than those due to cloud cover. Under a ?2 K scenario (approximating Little Ice Age conditions), permafrost expanded into an additional 22?C43% of the study areas as zonal boundaries descended by 155?C290 m K???1. Under warming scenarios, permafrost probabilities progressively declined and zonal boundaries rose in elevation. A MAAT change of +5 K, caused two of the areas to become essentially permafrost-free. The absolute values of these predictions were affected up to ±10% when lapse rates were altered by ±1.5 K km???1 but patterns and trends were maintained. A higher proportion of diffuse radiation (greater cloud cover) produced increases in permafrost extent of only 2?C4% while decreases in the diffuse radiation fraction had an equal but opposite effect. Notwithstanding the small change in overall extent, permafrost probabilities on steep south-facing slopes were significantly impacted by the altered partitioning. Combined temperature and PISR partitioning scenarios produced essentially additive results, but the impact of changes in the latter declined as MAAT increased. The modelling illustrated that mountain permafrost in the discontinuous zone is sensitive spatially to long-term climate change and identified those areas where changes may already be underway following recent atmospheric warming. 相似文献
5.
Matthew W. Salzer Andrew G. Bunn Nicholas E. Graham Malcolm K. Hughes 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1517-1526
The instrumental temperature record is of insufficient length to fully express the natural variability of past temperature. High elevation tree-ring widths from Great Basin bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva) are a particularly useful proxy to infer temperatures prior to the instrumental record in that the tree-rings are annually dated and extend for millennia. From ring-width measurements integrated with past treeline elevation data we infer decadal- to millennial-scale temperature variability over the past 4,500 years for the Great Basin, USA. We find that twentieth century treeline advances are greater than in at least 4,000 years. There is also evidence for substantial volcanic forcing of climate in the preindustrial record and considerable covariation between high elevation tree-ring widths and temperature estimates from an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model over much of the last millennium. A long-term temperature decline of ~?1.1 °C since the mid-Holocene underlies substantial volcanic forcing of climate in the preindustrial record. 相似文献
6.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling Hermann Held Andrey Ganopolski Stefan Rahmstorf 《Climate Dynamics》2006,27(2-3):149-163
The concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere continues to rise, hence estimating the climate system’s sensitivity to changes in GHG concentration is of vital importance. Uncertainty in climate sensitivity is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future climate change. Here we present a new approach for constraining this key uncertainty by combining ensemble simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) with paleo-data. For this purpose we used a climate model of intermediate complexity to perform a large set of equilibrium runs for (1) pre-industrial boundary conditions, (2) doubled CO2 concentrations, and (3) a complete set of glacial forcings (including dust and vegetation changes). Using proxy-data from the LGM at low and high latitudes we constrain the set of realistic model versions and thus climate sensitivity. We show that irrespective of uncertainties in model parameters and feedback strengths, in our model a close link exists between the simulated warming due to a doubling of CO2, and the cooling obtained for the LGM. Our results agree with recent studies that annual mean data-constraints from present day climate prove to not rule out climate sensitivities above the widely assumed sensitivity range of 1.5–4.5°C (Houghton et al. 2001). Based on our inferred close relationship between past and future temperature evolution, our study suggests that paleo-climatic data can help to reduce uncertainty in future climate projections. Our inferred uncertainty range for climate sensitivity, constrained by paleo-data, is 1.2–4.3°C and thus almost identical to the IPCC estimate. When additionally accounting for potential structural uncertainties inferred from other models the upper limit increases by about 1°C. 相似文献
7.
Geoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Victor Brovkin Vladimir Petoukhov Martin Claussen Eva Bauer David Archer Carlo Jaeger 《Climatic change》2009,92(3-4):243-259
We use a coupled climate–carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity to investigate scenarios of stratospheric sulfur injections as a measure to compensate for CO2-induced global warming. The baseline scenario includes the burning of 5,000 GtC of fossil fuels. A full compensation of CO2-induced warming requires a load of about 13 MtS in the stratosphere at the peak of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Keeping global warming below 2°C reduces this load to 9 MtS. Compensation of CO2 forcing by stratospheric aerosols leads to a global reduction in precipitation, warmer winters in the high northern latitudes and cooler summers over northern hemisphere landmasses. The average surface ocean pH decreases by 0.7, reducing the calcifying ability of marine organisms. Because of the millennial persistence of the fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere, high levels of stratospheric aerosol loading would have to continue for thousands of years until CO2 was removed from the atmosphere. A termination of stratospheric aerosol loading results in abrupt global warming of up to 5°C within several decades, a vulnerability of the Earth system to technological failure. 相似文献
8.
Over the last century, the Arctic has warmed at twice the rate of the planet as a whole. Observational evidence indicates that this rapid warming is affecting the tundra and boreal forest biomes by changing their structure and geographic distribution. A global climate model (GCM) was used to explore the atmospheric response to boreal forest expansion by applying a one-grid cell shift of the forest into tundra. This subtle shift is meant to represent the expansion that would occur this century rather than more extreme scenarios predicted by dynamic vegetation models. Results show that this shift causes an average annual warming of 0.3 °C over the region because of a reduction in the surface albedo and an increase in net radiation. A warming of ~1.0 °C occurs in spring when the forest masks the higher albedo snow-covered surface and results in snowmelt and a reduction in cloud cover. Results fail to show a larger-scale dynamical response although some warming of the lower and mid troposphere occurs in July. No changes were found in the position or strength of the Arctic frontal zone as some studies have indicated will occur with a shift in the boreal forest-tundra boundary. These findings suggest that coupled model simulations that predict larger changes in vegetation distribution are likely overemphasizing the amount of Arctic warming that will occur this century. These findings also indicate that a realistic dynamical response to subtle land cover change might not be correctly simulated by GCMs run at coarse spatial resolutions. 相似文献
9.
Su-Jong Jeong Chang-Hoi Ho Kwang-Yul Kim Jinwon Kim Jee-Hoon Jeong Tae-Won Park 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):625-635
Inclusion of the effects of vegetation feedback in a global climate change simulation suggests that the vegetation–climate feedback works to alleviate partially the summer surface warming and the associated heat waves over Europe induced by the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The projected warming of 4°C over most of Europe with static vegetation has been reduced by 1°C as the dynamic vegetation feedback effects are included.. Examination of the simulated surface energy fluxes suggests that additional greening in the presence of vegetation feedback effects enhances evapotranspiration and precipitation, thereby limiting the warming, particularly in the daily maximum temperature. The greening also tends to reduce the frequency and duration of heat waves. Results in this study strongly suggest that the inclusion of vegetation feedback within climate models is a crucial factor for improving the projection of warm season temperatures and heat waves over Europe. 相似文献
10.
This paper provides new evidence of regional warming trends from local Chinese observations covering the period 1951–2010. We used satellite-derived land data and weighted urban and rural temperature records (a weighted method) and estimate the regional warming trend, which involves natural climate change and human impact. The annual warming rate over the whole of China is 0.21?±?0.02 °C/decade. The seasonal warming is 0.30?±?0.05 °C/decade (Winter), 0.24 °C?±?0.03 °C/decade (Spring); 0.16?±?0.02 °C/decade (Summer) and 0.21?±?0.03 °C/decade (Autumn). The mean warming trend is lower than previous estimates (e.g. NMIC, CRU-China) using un-weighted methods (arithmetic average of all records). The warming difference between the weighted and un-weighted accounts for 27 % (12 %) of the NMIC (CRU-China) un-weighted estimate on the total warming. This indicates that previous estimations overestimated a regional warming trend. The differences can be partly attributed to the weighting of the urban effect which is taken into consideration in this study, resulting in a much slower temperature increase. Spatially, the northern part of China shows a larger difference than the south especially for winter and spring. We argue that it is of importance to take into consideration the influence of urban land-use change to improve the physical understanding of surface warming in China over past decades. 相似文献
11.
In this paper we study an isolated high-mountain (Sierra Nevada, SE Iberian Peninsula) to identify the potential trends in
the habitat-suitability of five key species (i.e. species that domain a given vegetation type and drive the conditions for
appearance of many other species) corresponding to four vegetation types occupying different altitudinal belts, that might
result from a sudden climatic shift. We used topographical variables and downscaled climate warming simulations to build a
high-resolution spatial database (10 m) according to four different climate warming scenarios for the twenty-first century.
The spatial changes in the suitable habitat were simulated using a species distribution model, in order to analyze altitudinal
shifts and potential habitat loss of the key species. Thus, the advance and receding fronts of known occurrence locations
were computed by introducing a new concept named differential suitability, and potential patterns of substitution among the key species were established. The average mean temperature trend show an
increase of 4.8°C, which will induce the vertical shift of the suitable habitat for all the five key species considered at
an average rate of 11.57 m/year. According to the simulations, the suitable habitat for the key species inhabiting the summit
area, where most of the endemic and/or rare species are located, may disappear before the middle of the century. The other
key species considered show moderate to drastic suitable habitat loss depending on the considered scenario. Climate warming
should provoke a strong substitution dynamics between species, increasing spatial competition between both of them. In this
study, we introduce the application of differential suitability concept into the analysis of potential impact of climate change, forest management and environmental monitoring, and discuss
the limitations and uncertainties of these simulations. 相似文献
12.
Philip B. Holden N. R. Edwards K. I. C. Oliver T. M. Lenton R. D. Wilkinson 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(5):785-806
In order to investigate Last Glacial Maximum and future climate, we “precalibrate” the intermediate complexity model GENIE-1
by applying a rejection sampling approach to deterministic emulations of the model. We develop ~1,000 parameter sets which
reproduce the main features of modern climate, but not precise observations. This allows a wide range of large-scale feedback
response strengths which generally encompass the range of GCM behaviour. We build a deterministic emulator of climate sensitivity
and quantify the contributions of atmospheric (±0.93°C, 1σ) vegetation (±0.32°C), ocean (±0.24°C) and sea–ice (±0.14°C) parameterisations to the total uncertainty. We then perform
an LGM-constrained Bayesian calibration, incorporating data-driven priors and formally accounting for structural error. We
estimate climate sensitivity as likely (66% confidence) to lie in the range 2.6–4.4°C, with a peak probability at 3.6°C. We estimate LGM cooling likely to lie in
the range 5.3–7.5°C, with a peak probability at 6.2°C. In addition to estimates of global temperature change, we apply our
ensembles to derive LGM and 2xCO2 probability distributions for land carbon storage, Atlantic overturning and sea–ice coverage. Notably, under 2xCO2 we calculate a probability of 37% that equilibrium terrestrial carbon storage is reduced from modern values, so the land
sink has become a net source of atmospheric CO2. 相似文献
13.
?rna Jama is the coldest section of cave within the Postojna Cave System. Mean annual air temperatures at the ?rna Jama 2 site are 5.6 °C (2015) and 5.7 °C (2016), and at the ?rna Jama 3 site 7.1 °C (2015) and 7.2 (2016), whereas the mean external air temperature was 10.3 °C (2015) and 10.0 °C (2016). In Lepe Jame, the passage most heavily visited by tourists, the mean cave-air temperature is 10.7 °C (2014–2017). ?rna Jama exhibits winter and summer temperature regimes. During warm periods (Tcave < Tout), it acts as a cold air trap, exchanging no air with the outside atmosphere. Under such conditions the cave-air temperature shows no short-term diurnal temperature oscillations. Cave-air temperature is significantly stable and affected only by elevation of the groundwater table, which is associated with precipitation. During cold periods (Tcave > Tout), ventilation takes place and dense, cold, outside air sinks into ?rna Jama because of the favourable cave entrance morphology. Recent ?rna Jama air temperature data (2014–2017) indicate a < 0.5 °C higher temperature than that recorded in historical data since 1933. ?rna Jama is the most appropriate place within the Postojna Cave System to study long-term climatic changes. There are hardly any tourist visits to the cave, and human impacts on the cave climate are essentially reduced. 相似文献
14.
Much work is under way to identify and quantify the feedbacks between vegetation and climate. Palaeoclimate modelling may
provide a mean to address this problem by comparing simulations with proxy data. We have performed a series of four simulations
of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) using the climate model HadSM3, to test the sensitivity of climate to
various changes in vegetation: a global change (according to a previously discussed simulation of the LGM with HadSM3 coupled
to the dynamical vegetation model TRIFFID); a change only north of 35°N; a change only south of 35°N; and a variation in stomatal
opening induced by the reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentration. We focus mainly on the response of temperature, precipitation, and atmosphere dynamics. The response of continental
temperature and precipitation mainly results from regional interactions with vegetation. In Eurasia, particularly Siberia
and Tibet, the response of the biosphere substantially enhances the glacial cooling through a positive feedback loop between
vegetation, temperature, and snow-cover. In central Africa, the decrease in tree fraction reduces the amount of precipitation.
Stomatal opening is not seen to play a quantifiable role. The atmosphere dynamics, and more specifically the Asian summer
monsoon system, are significantly altered by remote changes in vegetation: the cooling in Siberia and Tibet act in concert
to shift the summer subtropical front southwards, weaken the easterly tropical jet and the momentum transport associated with
it. By virtue of momentum conservation, these changes in the mid-troposphere circulation are associated with a slowing of
the Asian summer monsoon surface flow. The pattern of moisture convergence is slightly altered, with moist convection weakening
in the western tropical Pacific and strengthening north of Australia. 相似文献
15.
Climate change in mountains: a review of elevation-dependent warming and its possible causes 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:4
Available observations suggest that some mountain regions are experiencing seasonal warming rates that are greater than the global land average. There is also evidence from observational and modeling studies for an elevation-dependent climate response within some mountain regions. Our understanding of climate change in mountains, however, remains challenging owing to inadequacies in observations and models. In fact, it is still uncertain whether mountainous regions generally are warming at a different rate than the rest of the global land surface, or whether elevation-based sensitivities in warming rates are prevalent within mountains. We review studies of four high mountain regions – the Swiss Alps, the Colorado Rocky Mountains, the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas, and the Tropical Andes – to examine questions related to the sensitivity of climate change to surface elevation. We explore processes that could lead to enhanced warming within mountain regions and possible mechanisms that can produce altitudinal gradients in warming rates on different time scales. A conclusive understanding of these responses will continue to elude us in the absence of a more comprehensive network of climate monitoring in mountains. 相似文献
16.
Elevation gradients of European climate change in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A transient climate scenario experiment of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM is analyzed to assess the elevation dependency
of 21st century European climate change. A focus is put on near-surface conditions. Model evaluation reveals that COSMO-CLM
is able to approximately reproduce the observed altitudinal variation of 2 m temperature and precipitation in most regions
and most seasons. The analysis of climate change signals suggests that 21st century climate change might considerably depend
on elevation. Over most parts of Europe and in most seasons, near-surface warming significantly increases with elevation.
This is consistent with the simulated changes of the free-tropospheric air temperature, but can only be fully explained by
taking into account regional-scale processes involving the land surface. In winter and spring, the anomalous high-elevation
warming is typically connected to a decrease in the number of snow days and the snow-albedo feedback. Further factors are
changes in cloud cover and soil moisture and the proximity of low-elevation regions to the sea. The amplified warming at high
elevations becomes apparent during the first half of the 21st century and results in a general decrease of near-surface lapse
rates. It does not imply an early detection potential of large-scale temperature changes. For precipitation, only few consistent
signals arise. In many regions precipitation changes show a pronounced elevation dependency but the details strongly depend
on the season and the region under consideration. There is a tendency towards a larger relative decrease of summer precipitation
at low elevations, but there are exceptions to this as well. 相似文献
17.
Last Glacial Maximum climate of the former Soviet Union and Mongolia reconstructed from pollen and plant macrofossil data 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
P. E. Tarasov O. Peyron J. Guiot S. Brewer V. S. Volkova L. G. Bezusko N. I. Dorofeyuk E. V. Kvavadze I. M. Osipova N. K. Panova 《Climate Dynamics》1999,15(3):227-240
An improved concept of the best analogues method was used to reconstruct the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate from a set
of botanical records from the former Soviet Union and Mongolia. Terrestrial pollen and macrofossil taxa were grouped into
broad classes – plant functional types (PFTs), defined by the ecological and climatic parameters used in the BIOME1 model.
PFT scores were then calibrated in terms of modern climate using 1245 surface pollen spectra from Eurasia and North America.
In contrast to individual taxa, which exhibit great variability and may not be present in the palaeoassemblages, even in suitable
climates, PFTs are more characteristic of the vegetation types. The modified method thus allows climate reconstruction at
time intervals with partial direct analogues of modern vegetation (e.g. the LGM). At 18 kBP, mean temperatures were 20–29 °C
colder than today in winter and 5–11 °C colder in summer in European Russia and Ukraine. Sites from western Georgia show negative,
but moderate temperature anomalies compared to today: 8–11 °C in January and 5–7 °C in July. LGM winters were 7–15 °C colder
and summers were 1–7 °C colder in Siberia and Mongolia. Annual precipitation sums were 50–750 mm lower than today across northern
Eurasia, suggesting a weakening of the Atlantic and Pacific influences. Reconstructed drought index shows much drier LGM conditions
in northern and mid-latitude Russia, but similar to or slightly wetter than today around the Black Sea and in Mongolia, suggesting
compensation of precipitation losses by lower-than-present evaporation.
Received: 11 May 1998 / Accepted: 25 September 1998 相似文献
18.
Jinwei Dong Jiyuan Liu Geli Zhang Jeffrey B. Basara Scott Greene Xiangming Xiao 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,113(3-4):561-572
Recent climate change is substantially affecting the spatial pattern of geographical zones, and the temporal and spatial inconsistency of climatic warming and drying patterns contributes to the complexity of the shifting of temperature and aridity zones. Eastern Inner Mongolia, China, located in the interface region of different biomes and ecogeographic zones, has experienced dramatic drying and warming over the past several decades. In this study, the annual accumulated temperature above 10 °C (AAT10) and the aridity index, two key indicators in geographical regionalization, are used to assess warming and drying processes and track the movements of temperature and aridity zones from 1960 to 2008. The results show a significant warming at the regional level from 1960 to 2008 with an AAT10 increase rate of 7.89 °C·d/year (p?<?0.001) in Eastern Inner Mongolia, while the drying trend was not significant during this period. Spatial heterogeneity of warming and drying distributions was also evident. Analysis of warming and drying via piecewise regression revealed two separate, specific trends between the first 31 years (1960–1990) and the subsequent 18 years (1991–2008). Generally, mild warming and very slight wetting occurred prior to 1990, while after 1991 both warming and drying were significant and enhanced. Continuous warming drove a northward shift of temperature zones from the 1960s to 2000s, while aridity zones displayed enhanced temporal and spatial variability. Climate change effects on temperature and aridity zones imply that the patterns of cropping systems, macro-ecosystems, and human land use modes are potentially undergoing migration and modification due to climate change. 相似文献
19.
Ognjen Bonacci Ivana Željković Robert Šakić Trogrlić Janja Milković 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(1-2):271-279
Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures T0 [Eq. (1)] and temperatures calculated with three different equations [(2), (3) and (4)] (commonly used in climatological practice) were investigated at three main meteorological Croatian stations from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2011. The stations are situated in the following three climatically distinct areas: (1) Zagreb-Gri? (mild continental climate), (2) Zavi?an (cold mountain climate), and (3) Dubrovnik (hot Mediterranean climate). T1 [Eq. (2)] and T3 [Eq. (4)] mean temperatures are defined by the algorithms based on the weighted means of temperatures measured at irregularly spaced, yet fixed hours. T2 [Eq. (3)] is the mean temperature defined as the average of daily maximum and minimum temperature. The equation as well as the time of observations used introduces a bias into mean temperatures. The largest differences occur for mean daily temperatures. The calculated daily difference value from all three equations and all analysed stations varies from ?3.73 °C to +3.56 °C, from ?1.39 °C to +0.79 °C for monthly differences and from ?0.76 °C to +0.30 °C for annual differences. 相似文献
20.
Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:2
V. Masson-Delmotte M. Kageyama P. Braconnot S. Charbit G. Krinner C. Ritz E. Guilyardi J. Jouzel A. Abe-Ouchi M. Crucifix R. M. Gladstone C. D. Hewitt A. Kitoh A. N. LeGrande O. Marti U. Merkel T. Motoi R. Ohgaito B. Otto-Bliesner W. R. Peltier I. Ross P. J. Valdes G. Vettoretti S. L. Weber F. Wolk Y. YU 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(5):513-529
Climate model simulations available from the PMIP1, PMIP2 and CMIP (IPCC-AR4) intercomparison projects for past and future
climate change simulations are examined in terms of polar temperature changes in comparison to global temperature changes
and with respect to pre-industrial reference simulations. For the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 years ago), the models are forced
by changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters. The MH PMIP1 atmosphere-only simulations conducted with sea surface temperatures
fixed to modern conditions show no MH consistent response for the poles, whereas the new PMIP2 coupled atmosphere–ocean climate
models systematically simulate a significant MH warming both for Greenland (but smaller than ice-core based estimates) and
Antarctica (consistent with the range of ice-core based range). In both PMIP1 and PMIP2, the MH annual mean changes in global
temperature are negligible, consistent with the MH orbital forcing. The simulated last glacial maximum (LGM, 21,000 years
ago) to pre-industrial change in global mean temperature ranges between 3 and 7°C in PMIP1 and PMIP2 model runs, similar to
the range of temperature change expected from a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the CMIP simulations. Both LGM and future climate simulations are associated with a polar amplification
of climate change. The range of glacial polar amplification in Greenland is strongly dependent on the ice sheet elevation
changes prescribed to the climate models. All PMIP2 simulations systematically underestimate the reconstructed glacial–interglacial
Greenland temperature change, while some of the simulations do capture the reconstructed glacial–interglacial Antarctic temperature
change. Uncertainties in the prescribed central ice cap elevation cannot account for the temperature change underestimation
by climate models. The variety of climate model sensitivities enables the exploration of the relative changes in polar temperature
with respect to changes in global temperatures. Simulated changes of polar temperatures are strongly related to changes in
simulated global temperatures for both future and LGM climates, confirming that ice-core-based reconstructions provide quantitative
insights on global climate changes.
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献