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1.
Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2004 period, thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2004, and tide gauge records are analyzed to investigate the interannual variability of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) and its relationship with ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). Both the interannual variations of the observed sea level and the thermosteric sea level are closely related to ENSO. An ‘enigma’ that the SST and sea level in the SCS have inverse response to ENSO is revealed. It is found that the thermosteric sea level has an excellent correspondence to seawater temperature at 100 m depth, and their variations are unsynchronized to SST. Detailed analysis denotes that the warming of seawater occurs only in the upper 75 m during and after the mature phase of El Niño, while the cooling appears in the layers deeper than 75 m during El Niño years. The volume transports between the SCS and the adjacent oceans and the anomalous Ekman pumping contribute a lot for the sea level fall in the developing stage of El Niño, while the mass exchange, which is dominated by precipitation, plays a more significant role in the following continuous negative sea level anomalies.  相似文献   

2.
Climatic changes of the 20th century have altered the water cycle in the Andean basins of central Argentina. The most visible change is seen in the mountain glaciers, with loss of part of their mass due to decreasing thickness and a substantial recession in the last 100 years. This paper briefly describes the results of glacier mass balance research since 1979 in the Piloto Glacier at the Cajón del Rubio, in the headwaters of Las Cuevas River, presenting new results for the period 1997–2003. Very large interannual variability of net annual specific balance is evident, due largely to variations in winter snow accumulation, with a maximum net annual value of + 151 cm w.e. and a minimum value of - 230 cm w.e. Wet El Niño years are normally associated with positive net annual balances, while dry La Niña years generally result in negative balances. Within the 24-year period, 67% of the years show negative net annual specific balances, with a cumulative mass balance loss of - 10.50 m water equivalent (w.e.). Except for exceptions normally related to El Niño events, a general decreasing trend of winter snow accumulation is evident in the record, particularly after 1992, which has a strong effect in the overall negative mass balance values. The glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River runoff is analysed based on the Punta de Vacas River gauge station for a hypothetical year without snow precipitation (YWSP), when the snowmelt component is zero. Extremely dry years similar to a YWSP have occurred in 1968–1969, 1969–1970 and 1996–1997. The Punta de Vacas gauge station is located 62 km downstream from Piloto Glacier, and the basin contains 3.0% of uncovered glacier ice and 3.7% of debris-covered ice. The total glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River discharge is calculated as 82 ± 8% during extremely dry years. If glacier wastage continues at the present trend as observed during the last 2 decades, it will severely affect the water resources in the arid central Andes of Argentina.  相似文献   

3.
Teleconnections between Andean and New Zealand glaciers   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Retreat and advance of glaciers in the Southern Alps of New Zealand have occurred over two distinct 20-yr climate periods (1954–1974) and (1974–1994). Changes in tropical and southern Andean glaciers are compared over these same periods. Behaviour of glaciers in the tropical Andes are out of phase with the Southern Alps glaciers, but some glaciers in Patagonia appear to be in phase. Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation using 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies and sea surface temperature patterns are examined for these periods. Glacier response on inter-decadal timescales is linked with distinctive shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns around the Southern Hemisphere. Retreat (advance) of glaciers in the Southern Alps and southern Andean glacier and advance (retreat) of glaciers in the tropical Andes are all associated with weaker (stronger) westerlies, blocking events in the South-east Pacific, negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies over Southern Africa and higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These glacier changes are also linked with the negative (positive) phase of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation, a higher frequency of La Niña (El Niño) events, and warm (cool) sea surface temperatures in the New Zealand region and cool (warm) sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern region of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru.  相似文献   

4.
The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty.There are large differences between the individual model predictions until the end of the 21st century, especially in terms of monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The majority of the models tends to project La Niña-like anomalies in the SOI and an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation in India and West Africa. However, the response barely exceeds the level of natural variability and the systematic intermodel variations are larger than the impact of different IPCC scenarios. Nonetheless, there is one prominent climate change signal, which stands out from model variations and internal noise: All forced model experiments agree in predicting a substantial warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. This oceanic heating does not necessarily lead to a modification of ENSO towards more frequent El Niño and/or La Niña events. It simply represents a change in the background state of ENSO. Indeed, we did not find convincing multi-model evidence for a modification of the wavelet spectra in terms of ENSO or the monsoons. Some models suggest an intensification of the annual cycle but this signal is fairly model-dependent. Thus, large model uncertainty still exists with respect to the future behaviour of climate in the low latitudes. This has to be taken into account when addressing climate change signals in individual model experiments and ensembles.  相似文献   

5.
The climate of the South China Sea (SCS) is dominated by the East Asian monsoon (EAM) and can be related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) owing to the interaction between ENSO and the EAM. An annually-banded coral (Porites sp.) collected from Con Dao Island in the southern SCS was measured for Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios at near-monthly resolution through the annual bands of AD 1948–1999. This island is only ~ 90 km from the Mekong Delta coast and thus significantly influenced by riverine discharge, suggesting relatively severe environmental stress on corals. The Sr/Ca time series shows a clear annual cyclicity chiefly modulated by sea-surface temperature (SST), whereas the Mg/Ca time series exhibits an indistinct annual cyclicity, indicating that the previously-proposed coral Mg/Ca thermometry is greatly disturbed. An instrumental SST record in Con Dao Island (since 1980) has been compared with the Sr/Ca time series to calibrate a Sr/Ca thermometer. The Sr/Ca vs. SST comparison shows that the Sr/Ca thermometer is sometimes disturbed by some factor and that almost all of the disturbances occur around the annual-maximum SST in the warm/wet season. The Sr/Ca data around the annual-minimum SST in the cool/dry season is almost free from the disturbance and thus useful as a SST proxy. The disturbances of the Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca thermometers may be ascribed to the Mekong River discharge and its accompanying phenomena (i.e., large freshwater input, suspended-sediment loads, intense phytoplankton blooms, etc.), which are likely to disturb coral physiological processes. Applying the Sr/Ca thermometer to the whole Sr/Ca time series provides a SST reconstruction from 1948 through 1999. Reconstructed annual-minimum SSTs show a clear quasi-biennial oscillation significantly correlated with ENSO, indicating that the annual-minimum SST in the southern SCS tends to be higher (lower) in El Niño (La Niña) phases. This is compatible with previous observations that the East Asian winter monsoon is weakened (strengthened) in El Niño (La Niña) phases. The reconstructed SST record suggests a warming of 1.0 °C for the latter half of the 20th century. The Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca time series exhibit similar decadal-to-bidecadal variations, which do not seem to be primarily due to SST variability but rather due to some other factor possibly related to disturbance or fluctuation of coral physiological processes. Although both of our Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca data are affected, to a greater or lesser extent, by some non-temperature factor, a part of the Sr/Ca data provides a useful SST proxy and suggests that coral-based SST reconstruction in the southern SCS may be an effective means for monitoring the EAM and ENSO.  相似文献   

6.
The periodic damming of Lake Argentino by the Perito Moreno Glacier (50°30′S, 73° 00′W) in Argentina's southern Patagonian Andes has been recorded seventeen times since the beginning of this century. Such events are significant factors controlling discharge anomalies (seasonal component removed) of the Santa Cruz River, the sole outlet of Lake Argentino. Power spectrum analysis of the deseasonalized discharge revealed significant period peaks in the 33- to 36-month range and in the 42- to 58-month range. The first frequency is probably determined by the anomalous position of the subtropical anticyclones in the Pacific (with 2–5 years recurrence intervals), whereas the remaining frequencies are coincidental with the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) frequency spectrum. Significant squared coherency (>0.78) between the Santa Cruz River discharge anomalies and the MEI suggests that there is a significant teleconnection between ENSO occurrences in the Pacific and the Perito Moreno Glacier dynamics. El Niño events, for example, appear to have fostered the advancement of the glacier's snout and influenced the recorded damming–rupture sequence.  相似文献   

7.
The impacts of dynamic vegetation on interannual and interdecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon in modern (0 kyr) and mid-Holocene (6 kyr) climates are investigated by contrasting simulations with and without dynamic vegetation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.According to a dynamic index of South Asian summer monsoon, it has been found that the strengths of interannual and interdecadal westerly wind tend not to be affected by the dynamic vegetation over South Asia in the lower troposphere for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. However, based on a dynamic index of western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon, the strengths of tropical westerly wind and south–north cross-equatorial transport are weakened over the tropical western Pacific in the lower troposphere for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. It suggests the impact of dynamic vegetation is more obvious for the WNP monsoon than for the South Asian monsoon. Also, it implies the impact of dynamic vegetation on the interannual and interdecadal circulations is distinctly regional.Singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis shows that the impact of dynamic vegetation can remodel the leading correlation mode (SVD1) between precipitation and surface temperature. All of the interannual and interdecadal precipitation patterns with and without the impact of dynamic vegetation are associated with positive anomalies over India and southeastern China. However, the impact of dynamic vegetation tends to enhance (keep) the positive interannual temperature anomalies of SVD1 over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 0 kyr, but to reduce the anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia and WNP for 6 kyr. Furthermore, the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies always dominate the tropics for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. It suggests La Niña-like SST anomalies are the important mechanism to induce the above-mentioned precipitation pattern no matter whether for 0 kyr or for 6 kyr. For the interdecadal surface temperature pattern of SVD1, the impact of dynamic vegetation tends to enhance (reduce) positive anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 0 kyr, but to reduce (keep) positive anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 6 kyr. Also, all of the above implies the impact of dynamic vegetation is a mechanism to induce the long-term change of leading interannual and interdecadal surface temperature pattern over the midlatitudinal Eurasia and/or WNP.  相似文献   

8.
The Huanghe, the second largest river in China, is now under great pressure as a water resource. Using datasets of river water discharge, water consumption and regional precipitation for the past 50 years, we elucidate some connections between decreasing water discharges, global El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and anthropogenic impacts in the drainage basin. Global ENSO events, which directly affected the regional precipitation in the river basin, resulted in approximately 51% decrease in river water discharge to the sea. The degree of anthropogenic impacts on river water discharge is now as great as that of natural influences, accelerating the water losses in the hydrological cycle. The large dams and reservoirs regulated the water discharge and reduced the peak flows by storing the water in the flood season and releasing it in the dry season as needed for agricultural irrigation. Thus, as a result, large dams and reservoirs have shifted the seasonal distribution patterns of water discharge and water consumption and finally resulted in rapidly increasing water consumption. Meanwhile, the annual distribution pattern of water consumption also changed under the regulation of dams and reservoirs, indicating that the people living in the river basin consume the water more and more to suit actual agricultural schedule rather than depending upon natural pattern of annual precipitation. The combination of the increasing water consumption facilitated by the dams and reservoirs and the decreasing precipitation closely associated with the global ENSO events over the past half century has resulted in water scarcity in this world-famous river, as well as in a number of subsequent serious results for the river, delta and coastal ocean.  相似文献   

9.
Monthly runoff from the 34.3% glacierized tropical catchment of Llanganuco in the tropical Cordillera Blanca, Perú, is successfully simulated and compared with a measured 44 year time series. In the investigation area, the climate is characterized by all-year round homogenous temperature conditions and a strong variability in air humidity and moisture content of the atmosphere. Thus, contrary to the mid latitudes, the seasonal variation in glacier melt strongly depends on moisture-related variables, rather than on air temperature. The here presented ITGG-2.0-R model aims for these requirements. The lack of moisture-related input data other than precipitation demands for an intermediate calibration step. Net shortwave radiation, the emissivity of the atmosphere and a sublimation/melt ratio are related to precipitation amounts. Runoff is well simulated and correlates with the measured record with r2 = 0.76. Seasonally obtained r2 are only slightly smaller. On a long-term, the cumulative deviation is minor, and the mean annual cycle of runoff is reproduced rather well (r2 = 0.99). Based on four different IPCC climate change scenarios, future runoff is simulated. All runoff scenarios are modelled for the respective steady-state glacier extent. This leads to a reduction in the glacier size and a decreased amount of glacier melt. On the other hand, direct runoff increases due to larger glacier free areas. Consequently, mean annual runoff remains almost unchanged, but the seasonality intensifies considerably with more runoff during the wet and less runoff during the dry season.  相似文献   

10.
A long series of lakes (~ 150) borders the Patagonian Andes (south of ~ 38°S), most of which are a geomorphologic relict of Pleistocene glaciations. Employing instrumental records, we inspected lake water level departures from seasonal variations in seven proglacial lakes: Lacar, Mascardi, Steffen, Escondido, Puelo, Vinter, and Argentino. Lakes north of ~ 42°S show maximum gage (water) level during austral winter months; lakes between ~ 42° and ~ 45°S appear transitional; the one lake south of ~ 50°S (Argentino) shows maximum water level in early autumn. Most lakes show moderate level fluctuation throughout yearly records and, in general, show heteroscedacity. Furthermore, Hurst exponents reveal persistent behavior (i.e., long-term memory effect) in all water level series. In most lakes there are no trends in deseasonalized mean and maximum water levels (Seasonal Kendall test). Lake Mascardi–Manso River system (mostly fed by melt water from the retreating Manso Glacier) is a contrasting example that shows a decreasing trend during summer months that we ascribe to the also declining ice volume. Harmonic analysis (Fourier and wavelet transform) of deseasonalized mean and maximum water level time series shows interannual and decadal periodicities that we link to the occurrence of El Niño and/or the Antarctic Oscillation. The associated phase spectrum indicates that there is a ~ 13-month lag between ENSO occurrences and its effect on anomalous lake water levels. Increased snow accumulation during austral winters usually follows summertime El Niño events, which normally result in increased melt water volume that occurs with about one-year delay during the following (austral) spring/summer.  相似文献   

11.
A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems from 1982 to 1998. The NASA–CASA model was driven by vegetation properties derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and radiative transfer algorithms that were developed for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). For the terrestrial biosphere, predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux for atmospheric CO2 has varied widely between an annual source of −0.9 Pg C per year and a sink of +2.1 Pg C per year. The southern hemisphere tropical zones (SHT, between 0° and 30°S) have a major influence over the predicted global trends in interannual variability of NEP. In contrast, the terrestrial NEP sink for atmospheric CO2 on the North American (NA) continent has been fairly consistent between +0.2 and +0.3 Pg C per year, except during relatively cool annual periods when continental NEP fluxes are predicted to total to nearly zero. The predicted NEP sink for atmospheric CO2 over Eurasia (EA) increased notably in the late 1980s and has been fairly consistent between +0.3 and +0.55 Pg C per year since 1988. High correlations can be detected between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and predicted NEP fluxes on the EA continent and for the SHT latitude zones, whereas NEP fluxes for the North American continent as a whole do not correlate strongly with ENSO events over the same time series since 1982. These observations support the hypothesis that regional climate warming has had notable but relatively small-scale impacts on high latitude ecosystem (tundra and boreal) sinks for atmospheric CO2.  相似文献   

12.
Past and present glacier changes have been studied at Cordón Martial, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental, Tierra del Fuego, providing novel data for the Holocene deglaciation history of southern South America and extrapolating as well its future behavior based on predicted climatic changes. Regional geomorphologic and stratigraphic correlations indicate that the last glacier advance deposited the ice-proximal (“internal”) moraines of Cordón Martial, around 330 14C yr BP, during the Late Little Ice Age (LLIA). Since then glaciers have receded slowly, until 60 years ago, when major glacier retreat started. There is a good correspondence for the past 100 years between the surface area variation of four small cirque glaciers at Cordón Martial and the annual temperature and precipitation data of Ushuaia. Between 1984 and 1998, Martial Este Glacier lost 0.64 ± 0.02 × 106 m3 of ice mass (0.59 ± 0.02 × 106 m3 w.e.), corresponding to an average ice thinning of 7.0 ± 0.2 m (6.4 ± 0.2 m w.e), according to repeated topographic mapping. More detailed climatic data have been obtained since 1998 at the Martial Este Glacier, including air temperature, humidity and solar radiation. These records, together with the monthly mass balance measured since March 2000, document the annual response of the Martial Este Glacier to the climate variation. Mass balances during hydrological years were positive in 2000, negative in 2001 and near equilibrium in 2002. Finally, using these data and the regional temperature trend projections, modeled for different future scenarios by the Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GISS-NASA/GSFC), potential climatic-change effects on this mountain glacier were extrapolated. The analysis shows that only the Martial Este Glacier may survive this century.  相似文献   

13.
A glaciological program has been undertaken since 1991 on Zongo glacier in Bolivia (6000–4850 m asl, 2.4 km2, 16°S). This program involves mass balance measurements, hydrological studies and energy balance investigations. On outer-tropical glaciers, melting and snow accumulation are both maximum in the wet season (austral summer), whereas the dry season (winter) is a period of low ablation. Errors on each term of the glaciological (stakes, snow-pits and integration method of the measurements) and hydrological (precipitation, discharge and runoff coefficient of free ice areas) methods are investigated to estimate the overall accuracy of the mass balance measurements. The hydrological budget is less than the glaciological one (mean difference: 60 cm w.e. per year), but both methods reproduce similar inter-annual variations. Errors in assessment of evaporation or water storage inside the glacier cannot explain the discrepancy. Errors using the glaciological method are large (around ± 40 cm w.e. per year), but no bias can explain the departure from the hydrological balance. Errors on discharge measurements are small and the uncertainty on the runoff coefficient has a minor effect on the mass balance. We concluded that hydrological budgets are too low due to the catch deficiency of rain gauges and absence of precipitation measurements at high altitudes, emphasizing the difficulty to assess snowfall distribution in high mountainous basins.  相似文献   

14.
周永宏  郑大伟 《天文学报》1997,38(2):209-214
本文采用1964-1993年期间日长变化序列、海平面气压和纬向风速资料，通过小波变换等技术研究分析日长年际变化与ElNino／南方涛动、大气准两年振荡之间的关系．结果表明，日长年际变化与ElNino／南方涛动存在着相似的谱结构，而且ElNino／南方涛动叠加上大气准两年振荡后，与日长变化序列的小波变换时频谱更趋于一致．本文研究结果证实，ElNino／南方涛动和大气准两年振荡的贡献基本能够解释地球自转的年际变化．  相似文献   

15.
Climate changes and recent glacier behaviour in the Chilean Lake District   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Atmospheric temperatures measured at the Chilean Lake District (38°–42°S) showed contrasting trends during the second half of the 20th century. The surface cooling detected at several meteorological stations ranged from − 0.014 to − 0.021 °C a− 1, whilst upper troposphere (850–300 gpm) records at radiosonde of Puerto Montt (41°26′S/73°07′W) revealed warming between 0.019 and 0.031 °C a− 1. Regional rainfall data collected from 1961 to 2000 showed the overall decrease with a maximum rate of − 15 mm a− 2 at Valdivia st. (39°38′S/73°05′W). These ongoing climatic changes, especially the precipitation reduction, seem to be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena which has been more frequent after 1976. Glaciers within the Chilean Lake District have significantly retreated during recent decades, in an apparent out-of-phase response to the regional surface cooling. Moreover, very little is known about upper troposphere changes and how they can enhance the glacier responses. In order to analyse their behaviour in the context of the observed climate changes, Casa Pangue glacier (41°08′S/71°52′W) has been selected and studied by comparing Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) computed at three different dates throughout the last four decades. This approach allowed the determination of ice elevation changes between 1961 and 1998, yielding a mean thinning rate of − 2.3 ± 0.6 m a− 1. Strikingly, when ice thinning is computed for the period between 1981 and 1998, the resulting rate is 50% higher (− 3.6 ± 0.6 m a− 1). This enhanced trend and the related area loss and frontal retreat suggests that Casa Pangue might currently be suffering negative mass balances in response to the upper troposphere warming and decreased precipitation of the last 25–30 yr, as well as debris cover would not prevent the glacier from a fast reaction to climate forcing. Most of recent glaciological studies regarding Andean glaciers have concentrated on low altitude changes, namely frontal variations, however, in order to better understand the regional glacier changes, new data are necessary, especially from the accumulation areas.  相似文献   

16.
This paper presents a synopsis of recently published studies by the co-authors, which show that several land surface characteristics unique to Northern Eurasia are responsible for facilitating a causal relationship between autumn snow anomalies in this region and subsequent hemispheric winter climate patterns. The large size and extratropical location of the contiguous Eurasian land mass results in broad, continental-scale interannual snow cover extent and depth variations throughout autumn and winter, and corresponding diabatic heating anomalies. These surface anomalies occur in the presence of a large region of stationary wave activity, produced in part by the orographic barriers that separate northern/central Eurasia from southern/eastern Eurasia. This co-location of snow-forced anomalies and ambient wave energy is unique to Northern Eurasia, and initiates a teleconnection pathway involving stationary wave–mean flow interaction throughout the troposphere and stratosphere, ultimately resulting in a modulation of the winter Arctic Oscillation (AO). Complementary new results are also presented which show that partial snow cover extent or snow depth only anomalies in Northern Eurasia are insufficient to initiate the teleconnection pathway and produce a winter AO signal. This synopsis provides a useful interpretation of the earlier studies in the specific context of Northern Eurasia regional climate and environmental change.  相似文献   

17.
We studied the occurrence of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) events in relation to solar activity conditions and we found that the events are distributed in two populations, one that could be associated with low latitude coronal holes which occur along the ascending phase of the cycle and the other one which could be related to polar holes present at the end of the descending phase. As highly anomalous solar activity, in terms of flares and coronal holes, occurred in March of this year, we propose that an ENSO event is likely to occur by the end of the year.  相似文献   

18.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is an El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability, oscillating between its warm and cool phase about every 20–30 years as defined by oceanic temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. In this work, the authors investigate the possible connection between the PDO and solar activity by means of wavelet technique. The study shows obvious fluctuation characteristics in the PDO series. The modulation action from solar activity plays an important role in the oscillation of the Pacific, and there is a possible association existing in the PDO and solar activity on decade time scales.  相似文献   

19.
The El Niño No. 3 area index (5°S∼ 5°N, 150°W∼ 90°W) and yearly sunspot number (SSN) from 1408 to 1978 are used to investigate the influence of solar activity on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), through periodicity analysis, cross wavelet transform (XWT), cross correlation and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) analyses. The solar activity period, the Hale period, and the Gleissberg period are determined in the El Niño index time series, but of weak statistical significance. Cross correlation analysis of the index with SSN, and that of its low-frequency components decomposed by EEMD clearly indicate that solar activity may take effect on the ENSO, and such an impact should undergo an accumulation procedure (phase delay). XWT also indicates the existence of the impact. It is found that the index is negatively correlated with SSN when SSN is large during a certain long-term interval, and positively when SSN is small. Strong El Niño is inferred to be taken place in decade(s) to come.  相似文献   

20.
This paper is a comparison and compilation of lichenometric and geomorphic studies performed by two independent teams in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, in 1996 and 2002 on 66 “Little Ice Age” moraines of 14 glaciers. Using eleven new control points, we recalibrated the initial rapid growth phase of the previously established Rhizocarpon subgenus Rhizocarpon growth curve. This curve was then used to estimate the age of “Little Ice Age” moraines. The time of deposition of the most prominent and numerous terminal and lateral moraines on the Pacific-facing side of the Cordillera Blanca (between AD 1590 and AD 1720) corresponds to the coldest and wettest phase in the tropical Andes as revealed by ice-core data. Less prominent advances occurred between AD 1780 and 1880.  相似文献   

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