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Mitiyasu Ohnaka 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1984,122(6):848-862
The Kanto earthquake (M=7.9) that occurred along the Sagami Trough in the Sagami Bay on 1 September 1923 was one of the most disastrous earthquakes in Japanese history. The Kanto area includes Metropolitan Tokyo and Yokohama which are densely populated, and hence it has been a matter of great concern, from the viewpoints of earthquake prediction and disaster prevention, whether or not the 1923 Kanto earthquake was preceded by precursory seismicity. A study using the most complete lists of earthquakes catalogued recently by Utsu and the Japan Meteorological Agency reveals that seismic activity in the Kanto area was appreciably higher before and after the Kanto earthquake, and that the Kanto earthquake was preceded by a sequence of anomalous seismic activity, quiescence, and foreshocks. Such higher activity before and after the Kanto earthquake is contrasted with low seismicity during the recent 30-year period. A model is proposed to explain the precursory seismic activity, subsequent quiescence, and foreshocks for the Kanto earthquake. In the model, the transition from precursory seismic activity to quiescence is ascribed to time-dependent fracture due to stress-aided corrosion. Foreshocks are related to an acceleration of premonitory slip shortly before the mainshock slip. 相似文献
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Horizontal earth's strains preceding the Kanto, Japan, earthquake of 1, September 1923, are deduced from the analysis of the old triangulation data. The anomalous strains that are several times larger than usual tectonic strain are found in the western part of Tokyo Bay, Sagamihara district, Japan for the observational period 1882/91–1898/1910, while any significant strain is not revealed in the other region of the Kanto district. The Kanto district was surveyed twice during the period 1883/85–1890/92 in the west and during the period 1890/92–1897/99 in the east respectively. The polarity of the detected anomalous strains, the directions and the signs of the principal strains, are quite the same as those of the postseismic crustal strains during the period 1924–74, and are reversed as compared to the coseismic one.The Philippine Sea plate thrusts under the South Kanto district with N25°W direction and pulls down the land during the interseismic period. The aseismic reverse faulting would begin several decades before the 1923 Kanto earthquake along the deep interface between the Asian plate and the convergent Philippine Sea plate. The down-going along the locked part of the interface would be accelerated, thus the compressional stress on the earth's surface might be concentrated over the deep fault plane together with the acceleration of the subsidence at the tip of the peninsula close to the Sagami trough. 相似文献
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Since 1976 groundwater-levels and the temperature of thermal water have been monitored in 100 wells distributed mostly in the southern Kanto and Tokai districts of Japan in order to predict earthquakes. Good examples of groundwater precursors were recognized prior to the following destructive earthquakes: the 1978 West Off Izu-Oshima Earthquake (M 7.0), the 1978 Off Miyagi Earthquakes (M 7.4), and the 1980 East Off Izu Peninsula Earthquake (M 6.7). In the 1978 West Off Izu-Oshima Earthquake, groundwater levels and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) volume strainmeters, installed in the Izu peninsula, showed precursory changes at about the same time. In the other cases, however, precursory behavior was observed only in water level and temperature monitoring. Empirical relations are given between earthquake magnitude and the epicentral distance of the farthest groundwater anomaly, and between earthquake magnitude and the precursor time of groundwater. 相似文献
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Earthquake probability prediction is based on earthquakes occurred in a certain seismo-tectonic region topredict the probable times and probability of certain magnitude segment earthquake or the earthquake whose mag-nitude is larger than certain magnitude low limit in the coming certain period, this was extensively applied toearthquake risk analysis and earthquake forecast.…… 相似文献
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Ground motions of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake inside the Kanto Basin are numerically simulated in a wide frequency range (0?C10?Hz) based on new knowledge of the earthquake??s source processes, the sedimentary structure of the basin, and techniques for generating broadband source models of great earthquakes. The Kanto Earthquake remains one of the most important exemplars for ground motion prediction in Japan due to its size, faulting geometry, and location beneath the densely populated Kanto sedimentary basin. We reconstruct a broadband source model of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake from inversion results by introducing small-scale heterogeneities. The corresponding ground motions are simulated using a hybrid technique comprising the following four calculations: (1) low-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a finite difference method; (2) high-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a stochastic Green??s function method; (3) total ground motion of the engineering basement (i.e. 1?+?2); and (4) ground motion at the surface in response to the total basement ground motion. We employ a recently developed three-dimensional (3D) velocity structure model of the Kanto Basin that incorporates prospecting data, microtremor observations and measurements derived from strong ground motion records. Our calculations reveal peak ground velocities (PGV) exceeding 50?cm/s in the area above the fault plane: to the south, where the fault plane is shallowest, PGV reaches 150?C200?cm/s at the engineering basement and 200?C250?cm/s at the surface. Intensity 7, the maximum value in the Japan Meteorological Agency??s intensity scale, is calculated to have occurred widely in Sagami Bay, which corresponds well with observed house-collapse rates due to the 1923 event. The modeling reveals a pronounced forward directivity effect for the area lying above the southern, shallow part of the fault plane. The high PGV and intensity seen above the southeastern corner of the fault plane and further east are largely due to this effect. Waveforms above the fault plane contain both short- and long-period components, but the short-period components are not observed further afield. Away from the fault, long-period waves (>2?s) dominate the ground motion, and in areas where the base of the third layer is relatively deep, the predominant period is >5?s. Levels of long-period ground motion in the southern part of the study area, around Sagami Bay and the southern parts of Boso Peninsula and Tokyo Bay, exceed that recorded at Tomakomai during the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, when large oil storage tanks collapsed in response to sloshing generated by strong long-period motions. 相似文献
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Introduction According to the Rapid Earthquake Information Release of CNDSN (Department of Earth- quake Monitoring and Prediction, China Earthquake Administration, 2002), an earthquake with surface wave magnitude MS=8.1 shook west of Kunlun Mountain Pass (KMP) at the juncture of Xinjiang, Qinghai and Xizang on November 14, 2001. This is the largest and the only MS>8.0 earthquake in Chinese mainland over 50 years since the August 15, 1950 MS=8.6 (MW=8.6) Chayuearthquake in Tibeta… 相似文献
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大灰厂的三种形变资料的年变化显然与雨量及温度变化有关,后者在某种程度上干扰了曲线变化中的有效信息.唐山地震前1975年开始的明显变化是上述干扰因素所不能解释的.由于雨量和温度干扰因素的存在,确定异常的幅度及其起始时间是有困难的.我们用多道维纳(Wiener)预测滤波方法由输入(雨量、温度)来预测输出(短水准、连通管及伸缩仪资料).预测输出和实际资料之间的差别(预测偏差)即为我们所求的有效信息.大灰厂短水准异常变化开始于1975年4月,即开始于唐山地震前一年多.震前三个月左右观测到明显的短期异常.总异常幅度约为2毫米左右(短水准基线为26米).异常表明,唐山地震前八宝山断层活动特征具有逆冲性. 相似文献
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Two categories of earthquake precursors,physical and tectonic,and their roles in intermediate-term earthquake prediction 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Katsuhiko Ishibashi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,126(2-4):687-700
I suggest that earthquake precursors can be divided into two major categories, physical and tectonic. I define physical precursor to be a direct or indirect indication of initiation or progression of an irreversible rupture-generating physical process within the preparation zone of a forthcoming earthquake. Tectonic precursor is defined as a manifestation of tectonic movement which takes place outside the preparation zone of an impending earthquake as a link in a chain of particular local tectonism in each individual area preceding the earthquake.Most intermediate-term, short-term and immediate precursors of various disciplines within the source regions of main shocks are considered physical ones. Some precursory crustal deformations around the source regions are, however, possibly tectonic precursors, because they may be caused by episodic plate motions or resultant block movements in the neighboring regions of the fault segments that will break. A possible example of this phenomena is the anomalous crustal uplift in the Izu Peninsula, Japan, before the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake ofM
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6.8. Some precursory changes in seismicity patterns in wide areas surrounding source regions also seem to be tectonic precursors, because they were probably caused by the particular tectonic setting of each region. A typical example is a so-called doughnut pattern before the 1923 Kanto, Japan, earthquake ofM
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8.2.Although most studies on earthquake precursors so far seem to regard implicitly all precursory phenomena observed as physical ones, the two categories should be distinguished carefully when statistical analysis or physical modeling is carried out based on reported precursory phenomena. In active plate boundary zones, where a practical strategy for earthquake prediction may well be different from that in intraplate regions, tectonic precursors can be powerful additional tools for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. 相似文献
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Yukio Hagiwara 《Surveys in Geophysics》1974,1(3):305-323
T. Inoh was the first who completed a nation-wide map of Japan, in the beginning of the 19th century. He determined geodetic positions by distance and angle measurements and by astronomical observations. When Japan entered into its modern era, about 100 years ago, the Military Land Survey was established and has conducted geodetic work in Japan ever since until the end of World War II. A German surveying system belonging to Helmert's school was adopted. The Ministry of Education organized later the Geodetic Commission which promoted the geodetic activities in cooperation with the Military Land Survey. Comparison between the first and second nation-wide triangulation results obtained by the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI), the successor of the Military Land Survey, brought out marked horizontal land-deformations associated with a large earthquake. Repetitions of levelling survey also make it clear that vertical land-movements, well consistent with tide-gauge observation data, take place in association with earthquakes. The extensive subsidence in the Northeast Japan may be explained by assuming a sinking lithosphere, as is argued by the theory of plate tectonics. On the other hand, most local movements are closely correlated to pre-, co- and post-seismic land-deformations. The nation-wide gravity survey carried out by the GSI disclosed a complicated gravity distribution in Japan. Ship-borne gravimeters have now been extensively working at sea. One of the recent highlights of gravimetric work is the detection of secular gravity changes which are in accordance with the secular changes of levelling data. A portable absolute-gravity measuring instrument was constructed by the Earthquake Research Institute although it is still in a testing stage. Much advance has been made in the astrogeodetic observation devices since 1950's. 相似文献
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地震预测是世界公认的科学难题，本文对地震预测的难点作了简要分析，并指出其实质在于缺乏对地震发生规律性的认识。文中较详细地介绍了近些年来欧洲、日本、美国和俄罗斯在地震预测研究方面的进展。实际情况表明，国际上虽对地震预测研究还存在着种种不同意见，但地震预测研究仍在扎扎实实地取得进展，然而，要期望取得突破，尚需做出长期不懈的努力。 相似文献
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中国大陆近期地震活动性与中长期地震概率预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过地震震级概率预测方法得到的中国大陆各地震带１９９０￣２００５年地震危险性预测结果与近几年实际地震活动情况的对比研究。对这一方法及其实际预测效果有了更深入的理解。在此基础上，对中国大陆各地震带１９９６年７月至２００５年发生不同震级的地震概率进行了预测。结果表明，未来中国大陆继续处于１９８８年底以来的新一轮地震活跃阶段，中国东部地震发生概率继续增加，华北地块的北部边缘地震带和右江地震带有可能发生６ 相似文献
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从地震预测预报的时间范围、 与基础性学科的依赖关系、 以及认识论和方法论等不同角度, 简要分析现今我国地震预测预报的三种不同分类; 从地震的科学与社会双重属性, 分析制约其发展的一般科学技术规律和社会需求形势; 结合地震预测预报分类及影响其发展的科学与社会因素, 讨论我国地震预报发展思路。 认为当前我国地震预测预报处于承上启下的重要发展阶段, 提出坚持多路探索, 建立“长中短临与震后”的分析预报工作体系, 加强技术创新与储备, 推进物理性地震预测预报探索的发展途径, 并就其必要性、 科学思路、 基本内容和基础条件等进行了讨论。 相似文献
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我国地震动预测及地震危险性分析通常仅考虑局部场地浅层岩土层对地震动的放大效应,不能考虑较大范围的地质条件影响,如沉积盆地厚沉积层对地震动的附加放大效应通常被忽略,造成盆地内地震动及地震危险性预测结果普遍被低估。本文以地震动观测记录数据充足的日本关东盆地为例,采用地震动残差分析方法评估盆地附加放大效应,分析覆盖层厚度、盆地内空间位置、震级、震源距对地震动放大效应的影响,建立关东盆地附加放大效应经验评估模型。分析表明:关东盆地附加放大效应与反应谱周期相关,整体上从短周期的1.0逐渐增大至周期为5s时的1.5,附加放大效应与覆盖层厚度相关性较小,主要受盆地空间位置和震源距的影响;盆地北部边缘及西北部地区附加放大效应更强烈,盆地南部附加放大效应较小,这可能与盆地边缘效应密切相关。本文建立的关东盆地附加放大效应经验模型略高于BSSA14和ASK14模型的放大效应预测。相关研究结果可用于我国地震动预测、下一代地震动区划图修订等。 相似文献
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地震预报是件十分困难的事,尤其是短临预报。十多年来,在利用地下水的动态异常来预测地震方面有了新的进展,并在地震成因理论方面有新的探索。本文详述了石棉5.3级地震前地下水的异常特征。给出了地下水日常监视预测指标。震前四川地震地下水观测网中渡口、会理、西昌、石棉及康定观测台的水位、水温出现异常,依据这些异常,地震前作出了短临预报。 相似文献
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自20世纪70年代至今,中国地震局持续召开年度全国地震趋势会商会,对来年中国大陆地区的地震趋势作出综合判断,按照"东部5级、西部6级以上"的目标划定年度地震危险区.因为年度危险区的形状不规则、预测震级不同以及每年发生地震数量有限,难以对其预测效能进行科学、客观的评价,也不利于通过有真正信息增益危险区来积累预测经验.本研究采用新近发展的"博弈评分"(gambling score)方法评估了年度地震危险区预测结果的显著性.博弈评分是利用"参考模型"计算每个危险区预测成功与否的参考概率作为"奖励"标准,根据实际地震对应情况进行加分或减分.采用泊松模型和古登堡/里克特定律作为参考模型,对1990-2003年期间的年度地震危险区的预测效能进行了评估和分析.结果表明,虽然年度预测效能之间的差异较大,但是年度地震危险区预测结果明显优于非均匀泊松模型.这一方面表明年度地震危险区的圈定含有一定的地震前兆信息,得分高的危险区的判定依据将为提高地震预测准确率提供有益信息并积累有效的经验,另一方面也揭示了年度会商结果在前兆观测资料和地震活动背景空间分布知识之间整合的不足,即年度地震危险区的圈定在技术上仍有提高的余地. 相似文献
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K. Z. Nanjo J. B. Rundle J. R. Holliday D. L. Turcotte 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(11-12):2417-2432
Pattern Informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make an earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The PI method is tested to forecast large (magnitude m ≥ 5) earthquakes spanning the time period 1995–2004 in the Kobe region. Visual inspection and statistical testing show that the optimized PI method has forecasting skill, relative to the seismic intensity data often used as a standard null hypothesis. Moreover, we find in a retrospective forecast that the 1995 Kobe earthquake (m = 7.2) falls in a seismically anomalous area. Another approach to test the forecasting algorithm is to create a future potential map for large (m ≥ 5) earthquake events. This is illustrated using the Kobe and Tokyo regions for the forecast period 2000–2009. Based on the resulting Kobe map we point out several forecasted areas: The epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Wakayama area, the Mie area, and the Aichi area. The Tokyo forecast map was created prior to the occurrence of the Oct. 23, 2004 Niigata earthquake (m = 6.8) and the principal aftershocks with 5.0 ≤ m. We find that these events were close to in a forecasted area on the Tokyo map. The PI technique for regional seismicity observation substantiates an example showing considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting in Japan. 相似文献
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震级是大震速报中最重要的参数之一,震级差异的大小直接影响到资料的使用及台站的速报质量。本文根据琼中地震台近8年的记录资料中260例地震进行精确分析,与中国地震台网中心所发布的地震震级进行对比,对震级差异形成的原因进行探讨,初步得出琼中地震台的震级校正值,有利于提高琼中地震台速报地震震级的准确性。 相似文献