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1.
Flood risk assessment of River Indus of Pakistan 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Bushra Khan Muhammad Jawed Iqbal M. Ayub Khan Yosufzai 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2011,4(1-2):115-122
Annual flood peak discharges is widely used in risk assessment. Major sources of flooding in Pakistan are River Jhelum, River Chenab, River Kabul, and upper and lower parts of River Indus. These rivers are major tributaries of the River Indus System which is one of the most important systems of the world and the greatest system of Pakistan. River Indus is the longest river of Pakistan containing seven gauge stations and several barrages, and it plays a vital role in the irrigation system and power generation for the country. This paper estimates the risk of flood in River Indus using historical data of maximum peak discharges. On the basis of our analysis, we find out which dam/barrage reservoir need to be updated in capacity, and whether there are more dams/barrages needed. 相似文献
2.
Currently, the effect of dike breaches on downstream discharge partitioning and flood risk is not addressed in flood safety assessments. In a bifurcating river system, a dike breach may cause overland flows which can change downstream flood risk and discharge partitioning. This study examines how dike breaches and overflow affect overland flow patterns and discharges of the rivers of the Rhine delta. For extreme discharges, an increase in flood risk along the river branch with the smallest discharge capacity was found, while flood risk along the other river branches was reduced. Therefore, dike breaches and resulting overland flow patterns must be included in flood safety assessments.
相似文献3.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2017,8(5):941-949
There are serious concerns of rise in temperatures over snowy and glacierized Himalayan region that may eventually affect future river flows of Indus river system. It is therefore necessary to predict snow and glacier melt runoff to manage future water resource of Upper Indus Basin(UIB). The snowmelt runoff model(SRM) coupled with MODIS remote sensing data was employed in this study to predict daily discharges of Gilgit River in the Karakoram Range. The SRM was calibrated successfully and then simulation was made over four years i.e. 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 achieving coefficient of model efficiency of 0.96, 0.86, 0.9 and 0.94 respectively. The scenarios of precipitation and mean temperature developed from regional climate model PRECIS were used in SRM model to predict future flows of Gilgit River. The increase of 3 C in mean annual temperature by the end of 21 th century may result in increase of 35-40% in Gilgit River flows. The expected increase in the surface runoff from the snow and glacier melt demands better water conservation and management for irrigation and hydel-power generation in the Indus basin in future. 相似文献
4.
In the Hazara arc region of northern Pakistan, some of the active basements structures buried below a thick, detached sedimentary layer are inferred from the distribution of lineaments and the drainage patterns, as viewed in Landsat satellite imagery and from river profiles.A prominent set of NW-trending lineaments seen on satellite imagery, coincides approximately with the southwest or updip side of the Indus—Kohistan seismic zone (IKSZ) —the most active basement structure of the region, even though this structure is buried beneath and decoupled from a 12 km thick sedimentary layer. The IKSZ has been interpreted as an extension of the Himalayan Basement Thrust, and is also associated with a prominent topographic “step”.Knickpoints on major rivers in the region lie on or north of the IKSZ. All Indus River tributaries, examined north of the IKSZ, show prominent knickpoints, while two tributaries draining south of the IKSZ have no knickpoints. These results suggest ongoing uplift above and north of the IKSZ, and are consistent with the tectonic model obtained from the seismic data.Another prominent lineament set is detected along the north—south section of the Indus River. This set is probably related to the Indus River horst—anticline and associated reentrant.One of the two highest lineament concentrations occurs at the intersection between the NW-trending IKSZ lineament and the N-trending Indus River lineament. The other is along the west bank of the Indus Valley, 25 km north of Tarbela Dam.A topographic ridge (Swabi—Nowshera ridge) appears to be forming along the west side of the Indus River, in the Peshawar Basin. The rising ridge is ponding the Kabul River upstream of Nowshera, where the drainage is braided. 相似文献
5.
Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that
are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river.
We present an example of a rapid flood risk assessment methodology for the Elbe River. A 1D hydraulic routing model is extended
by including the effect of planned (regulated and unregulated) and unintended retention (dike breaches) on the peak water
levels. We further add an inundation model for dike breaches due to dike overtopping and a macroscale economic approach to
assess the flood damage. The flexible approach to model the effects of measures by means of volume storage functions allows
for rapid assessment of combinations of retention measures of various proposed dimensions and at multiple locations. The method
allows for the comparison of the flood risk at the scale of the main river trajectory, which has not been possible for the
Elbe River to date. The model is applied to a series of exemplary flood risk mitigation measures to show the downstream effects
and the additive effects of combinations of measures on the flood risk along the river. We further demonstrate the increase
in the downstream flood risk resulting from unilateral decisions to increase the dike height at upstream locations. As expected,
the results underline the potential effectiveness of increased retention along the river. The effects of controlled retention
at the most upstream possible location and largest possible extent generate the most pronounced reduction of average annual
damage. As expected, the effect of uncontrolled retention with dike relocations is significantly lower. 相似文献
6.
网状河流的构型、流量-宽深比关系和能耗率 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
网状河流作为一类新河型,已经受到研究者的关注,但对其研究还不充分.该研究基于目前已经报道过的资料及新近取得的研究成果,从河流构型、河道过水断面宽深比与流量关系及能耗率等方面对该河型展开论述,期望引起大家对该河型的兴趣.网状河流在许多方面表现出了独有的特色.从平面构型来看,它以相互连通的多河道围绕非常稳定的泛滥盆地为特征,其中泛滥盆地上植被发育、沼泽湖泊可见.从河道纵、横剖面来看,它具有非常小的河道比降和一般小于40的河道宽深比,总体上属于各类河型中最小的.从沉积体系的剖面构型来看,它以多个孤立的河道砂体"漂浮"在细粒泥质沉积物中为特征.在河道过水断面宽深比与流量的半对数图中可见,其宽深比随流量的增大而减小,并且其散点位于各类河流的最下部.由于其河道比降一般很小,多河道体系中的单个河道的流量相对于其决口前的老河道显然较小,从而其能耗率就相对很小.文中所讨论到的长江三口分流网状河道:东松滋河、西松滋河、虎渡河、藕池河、北藕池河和松澧合流,其能耗率分别为3.0 W/m2,5.5 W/m2,2.8 W/m2,6.4 W/m2,3.7 W/m2和2.7 W/m2,显然都小于10 W/m2,这与长江主河道在枝江附近的140 W/m2相比,差两个数量级.所有这些特征都预示着网状河流与以长江中下游为代表的分汊河流之间有着完全不同的特性,与其他河型更是大相径庭. 相似文献
7.
通过对长江洪水的致灾性、河道边界条件及其孕灾性、承载体易损性的分析,论述了长江中游为我国洪灾高危险区的必然性。分析了人类对河流的治理,使河道稳定性增加,减少了洪灾的风险,但是长江中游的局部河段却发生洪水位增高的趋势,又增加了洪灾风险,该区域高危险的基本特性犹存。研究了三峡运行后,长江中下游出现新的防洪形势:一方面三峡水库巨大的防洪库容拦蓄洪水,大大减少了中下游的洪灾,另一方面因河道的强冲刷,使河势变化剧烈、横向摆动增强,局部河段岸壁失稳,又增加防洪压力。同时因总体水面比降趋平,洪灾风险有向下游转移的趋势。未来长江中游仍为洪灾高危险区,仍应给予高度重视。 相似文献
8.
近年来长江中下游来沙量持续减少，河道面临长距离、长历时的冲淤调整，河道蓄泄关系发生变化，对防洪造成影响。在长江中下游河道冲淤及其蓄泄能力变化预测成果的基础上，对比计算了现状和未来河道蓄泄能力条件下，遇1954年洪水，长江上游水库防洪调度和中下游地区超额洪量的变化情况。结果表明，未来随着长江中下游河道进一步冲刷，河道槽蓄容积增加，相同防洪控制水位下的河道安全泄量增大，三峡水库在进行防洪调度时可下泄流量增大，总拦蓄洪量减小，长江中下游地区总超额洪量减小，但超额洪量在地区分布上存在从上游向下游转移的情况。 相似文献
9.
近年来长江中下游来沙量持续减少,河道面临长距离、长历时的冲淤调整,河道蓄泄关系发生变化,对防洪造成影响。在长江中下游河道冲淤及其蓄泄能力变化预测成果的基础上,对比计算了现状和未来河道蓄泄能力条件下,遇1954年洪水,长江上游水库防洪调度和中下游地区超额洪量的变化情况。结果表明,未来随着长江中下游河道进一步冲刷,河道槽蓄容积增加,相同防洪控制水位下的河道安全泄量增大,三峡水库在进行防洪调度时可下泄流量增大,总拦蓄洪量减小,长江中下游地区总超额洪量减小,但超额洪量在地区分布上存在从上游向下游转移的情况。 相似文献
10.
以长江中下游防洪系统为对象,概述了在大型复杂防洪系统洪水行为数值模拟基础上,成功地将长江中下游洪水演进数学模型转化为面向长江防洪系统防洪规划方案评估需求的长江中下游江湖水沙演变的数学模型.为适应防洪规划方案论证涉及江湖水沙相互制衡相互关联客观情况,建立了面向江湖水沙关系及其演变的数学模型.针对长江中下游江湖水沙运动特点,在水沙数值模拟的范围内侧重对下荆江河道冲刷、荆江三口分流分沙模式、洞庭湖泥沙淤积、江湖耦合等环节进行了讨论,提出了合理可行的数值处理方法.模拟结果较好反映了江湖水沙演变规律,主要成果已应用于长江中下游防洪规划和防汛调度方案中. 相似文献
11.
Backwater effects in the Amazon River basin of Brazil 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Robert H. Meade José M. Rayol Sylvio C. Da Conceicão José R. G. Natividade 《Environmental Geology》1991,18(2):105-114
The Amazon River mainstem of Brazil is so regulated by differences in the timing of tributary inputs and by seasonal storage of water on floodplains that maximum discharges exceed minimum discharges by a factor of only 3. Large tributaries that drain the southern Amazon River basin reach their peak discharges two months earlier than does the mainstem. The resulting backwater in the lowermost 800 km of two large southern tributaries, the Madeira and Purús rivers, causes falling river stages to be as much as 2–3 m higher than rising stages at any given discharge. Large tributaries that drain the northernmost Amazon River basin reach their annual minimum discharges three to four months later than does the mainstem. In the lowermost 300–400 km of the Negro River, the largest northern tributary and the fifth largest river in the world, the lowest stages of the year correspond to those of the Amazon River mainstem rather than to those in the upstream reaches of the Negro River. 相似文献
12.
为了研究三角洲河口风暴潮溃堤时的盐水运动规律,建立一、二维耦合的盐度数学模型对风暴潮溃堤时的盐水运动进行模拟。模型考虑洪泛区建筑物对盐水运动的影响以及溃口的渐变发展过程。用2008年多个测站的实测数据对河网模型的潮位和盐度计算结果进行了验证。将模型应用于珠江三角洲河网某近海溃口风暴潮溃堤的盐水运动模拟,并绘制了最大盐度等值面图。计算结果表明,该溃口大部分区域的溃堤积水盐度超过了4psu,因此,溃堤洪水的高盐度积水影响不容忽视。通过比较“溃堤”和“不溃堤”两种情况下的河网盐度计算结果,发现上游河道的溃堤分流增大了河道的纳潮量,促使涨潮量增大,增大了下游河网的咸潮上溯风险,减弱了上游来流对咸潮的压制效果。 相似文献
13.
江河洪水预报流域水量分析法具有概念明确、分析计算严谨、预报精度较高且仅应用江河水文站实测流量资料等特点,对于水文站数多、流量资料系列长的大江大河尤为适用。初次应用于淮河干流上游,取得了一定的经验。这一方法的应用,将会对我国大江大河防 及水资源利用起到良好的作用。 相似文献
14.
Bushra Khalid Débora Souza Alvim Shumaila Javeed Junaid Aziz Khan Muhammad Asif Javed Azmat Hayat Khan 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(2):971-993
Pakistan has experienced severe floods over the past decades due to climate variability. Among all the floods, the flood of 2010 was the worst in history. This study focuses on the assessment of (1) riverine flooding in the district Jhang (where Jhelum and Chenab rivers join, and the district was severely flood affected) and (2) south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns and anomalies considering the case of 2010 flood in Pakistan. The land use/cover change has been analyzed by using Landsat TM 30 m resolution satellite imageries for supervised classification, and three instances have been compared, i.e., pre-flooding, flooding, and post-flooding. The water flow accumulation, drainage density and pattern, and river catchment areas have been calculated by using Shutter Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model 90 m resolution. The standard deviation of south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns, anomalies and normal (1979–2008) has been calculated for July, August, and September by using rainfall data set of Era interim (0.75° × 0.75° resolution). El Niño Southern Oscillation has also been considered for its role in prevailing rainfall anomalies during the year 2010 over Upper Indus Basin region. Results show the considerable changing of land cover during the three instances in the Jhang district and water content in the rivers. Abnormal rainfall patterns over Upper Indus Basin region prevailed during summer monsoon months in the year 2010 and 2011. The El Niño (2009–2010) and its rapid phase transition to La Niña (2011–2012) may be the cause of severity and disturbances in rainfall patterns during the year 2010. The Geographical Information System techniques and model based simulated climate data sets have been used in this study which can be helpful in developing a monitoring tool for flood management. 相似文献
15.
1939年为海河流域20世纪特大洪涝灾害年之一。根据历史文献记载及观测资料,从降水过程、洪水过程及受灾情况等方面对1939年海河流域洪涝灾害过程作了梳理,得出以下结论: (1)1939年的洪涝灾害是7—8月份3次大范围集中暴雨导致的,集中降水出现于7月9—15日、7月23—29日和8月11—13日。3次暴雨中心均集中在昌平—紫荆关—中唐梅一带,其7、8两个月份总降雨量最高达到1000 mm以上,向东向西逐渐减小。(2)1939年海河流域诸河径流随着7—8月份集中降雨而出现涨落变化,稍滞后于降水变化1~2天,各河流最大流量和水位出现在7月23—29日集中降水后,并开始涨溢、决口,各河水位至8月底各河上游降雨中止而渐渐回落,9月中旬天津市区各河水位骤落,10月份以后洪水才迟缓退去,而洪水泛滥引发的涝灾一直延续到1940年。(3)1939年洪涝灾害在海河南系和北系都有发生,共造成150多个县市受灾,大部分受灾县市农业减产甚至绝收,被灾耕地面积成数超过8成的县市主要分布在大清河下游沿线、永定河下游沿线和南运河下游沿线靠近天津市的地区。 相似文献
16.
Pb isotopic variability in the modern-Pleistocene Indus River system measured by ion microprobe in detrital K-feldspar grains 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Anwar Alizai Peter D. Clift Sam VanLaningham Ali R. Tabrez The Edinburgh Ion Microprobe Facility 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(17):4771-4795
The western Himalaya, Karakoram and Tibet are known to be heterogeneous with regard to Pb isotope compositions in K-feldspars, which allows this system to be used as a sediment provenance tool. We used secondary ion mass spectrometry to measure the isotopic character of silt and sand-sized grains from the modern Sutlej and Chenab Rivers, together with Thar Desert sands, in order to constrain their origin. The rivers show a clear Himalayan provenance, contrasting with grains from the Indus Suture Zone, but with overlap to known Karakoram compositions. The desert dunes commonly show 207Pb/204Pb and 206Pb/204Pb values that are much higher than those seen in the rivers, most consistent with erosion from Nanga Parbat. This implies at least some origin from the trunk Indus, probably reworked by summer monsoon winds from the SW, a hypothesis supported by bulk Nd and U-Pb zircon dating. Further data collected from Holocene and Pleistocene sands shows that filled and abandoned channels on the western edge of the Thar Desert were sourced from Himalayan rivers before and at 6-8 ka, but that after that time the proportion of high isotopic ratio grains rose, indicating increased contribution from the Thar Desert dunes prior to ∼4.5 ka when flow ceased entirely. This may be linked to climatic drying, northward expansion of the Thar Desert, or changes in drainage style including regional capture, channel abandonment, or active local Thar tributaries. Our data further show a Himalayan river channel east of the present Indus, close to the delta, in the Nara River valley during the middle Holocene. While this cannot be distinguished from the Indus it is not heavily contaminated by reworking from the desert. The Pb system shows some use as a provenance tool, but is not effective at demonstrating whether these Nara sediments represent a Ghaggar-Hakra stream independent from the Indus. Our study highlights an important role for eolian reworking of floodplain sediments in arid rivers such as the Indus. 相似文献
17.
Asadullah Kazi 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(1):839-864
18.
Bangladesh is a country that comprises much of the world’s largest delta, formed from the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) rivers and their tributaries. Flooding is a fact of life in Bangladesh where up to two-thirds of the country is flooded annually from combined monsoonal rains and Himalayan snowmelt. For this reason, understanding flood dynamics on both local and regional scales is critical. However, flood hazard studies to date typically rely on single flooding events to create flood maps and to evaluate flood hazards using satellite imagery. Here we use geographic information systems to analyze weekly water level data from 304 river gauges and over 1200 groundwater gauges from the Bangladesh Water Development Board to determine the spatial and temporal changes in flood depth and extent. These data cover an eight year period from 2002 to 2010 and provide a temporal resolution that match or are better than that of available satellite imagery. Country-wide ground and surface water levels and corresponding annual flooding events were determined along with groundwater level, flooding, and precipitation trends in Bangladesh at multiple scales. We find that while precipitation within the GBM basin has steadily increased through the time series, the average country-wide inundation depth and absolute water level has been decreasing. These respective trends could be attributed to improved flood management strategies in Bangladesh and surrounding countries that are within the GBM basin, as well as fluctuating weather patterns, declining volume of Himalayan snowmelt runoff, dam construction upriver from the GBD both within and outside the Bangladesh border, and increased groundwater abstraction of shallow groundwater aquifers for sustaining life in the eighth most populous country in the world. 相似文献
19.
A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
In order to be economically viable, flood disaster mitigation should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk.
This requires the estimation of the flood hazard (i.e. runoff and associated probability) and the consequences of flooding
(i.e. property damage, damage to persons, etc.). Within the “German Research Network Natural Disasters” project, the working
group on “Flood Risk Analysis” investigated the complete flood disaster chain from the triggering event down to its various
consequences. The working group developed complex, spatially distributed models representing the relevant meteorological,
hydrological, hydraulic, geo-technical, and socio-economic processes. In order to assess flood risk these complex deterministic
models were complemented by a simple probabilistic model. The latter model consists of modules each representing one process
of the flood disaster chain. Each module is a simple parameterisation of the corresponding more complex model. This ensures
that the two approaches (simple probabilistic and complex deterministic) are compatible at all steps of the flood disaster
chain. The simple stochastic approach allows a large number of simulation runs in a Monte Carlo framework thus providing the
basis for a probabilistic risk assessment. Using the proposed model, the flood risk including an estimation of the flood damage
was quantified for an example area at the river Rhine. Additionally, the important influence of upstream levee breaches on
the flood risk at the lower reaches was assessed. The proposed model concept is useful for the integrated assessment of flood
risks in flood prone areas, for cost-benefit assessment and risk-based design of flood protection measures and as a decision
support tool for flood management. 相似文献