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1.
The time series of solar and volcanic activities have been processed to show, mostly by means of statistical characteristics, the exceptional and recurring pattern of these phenomena in the intervals of the exceptional and recurring pattern of solar motion, i.e. in the intervals of the Sun's motion along the trefoils which reoccur in steps of 178.7 years. Nearly the same sets of five sunspot cycles have been found in the latest trefoil intervals (1730–1780 and 1910–1960), their length being constant and equal to 10 years (cycles No. 15–19). The steadily attenuated volcanic activity have been pointed out in the three latest trefoil intervals. The long-term maxima of surface air temperature occured in the central decades of the trefoil intervals. The results indicate a primary role of solar motion in a causal chain of ST-relations and a need of taking the Solar System as a whole into account to explain climatic changes. The solar motion can be computed in advance. Predictive assesments, so far in form of analogies, have been made: Because the solar motion in the next decades will be chaotic, lower and longer solar cycles (with irregular length), ocurrence of huge volcanic events and a decrease of global surface air temperature can be expected.  相似文献   

2.
In this study we investigate the effects of solar activity on the surface air temperature of Turkey. This enables us to understand existence of solar activity effects on the temperature. We used surface air temperature, pressure and tropospheric absorbing aerosol data as climate parameters and solar flare index data as solar activity indicator. We considered the parameters temperature and flare index data for the period data ranging from the beginning of January 1976 to the end of December 2006, which cover almost three solar cycles, 21st, 22nd and 23rd. However, only the period interval starting from January 1980 up to December 2005 includes the tropospheric absorbing aerosol data. We found a significant correlation between solar activity and surface air temperature for only cycle 23. We applied multitaper method to obtain the cyclic behavior of surface air temperature data sets. The most pronounced power peaks were found by this transform to be present at 1.2 and 2.5 years, which were reported earlier for some solar activity indicators. We concluded that solar activity effect exists on surface air temperature of Turkey; besides changes of greenhouse gases and tropospheric absorbing aerosols concentration have also a dominant effect on the surface air temperature of Turkey.  相似文献   

3.
By applying multitaper methods and Pearson test on the surface air temperature and flare index used as a proxy data for possible solar sources of climate-forcing, we investigated the signature of these variables on middle and high latitudes of the Atlantic–Eurasian region (Turkey, Finland, Romania, Ukraine, Cyprus, Israel, Lithuania, and European part of Russia). We considered the temperature and flare index data for the period ranging from January 1975 to the end of December 2005, which covers almost three solar cycles, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd.We found significant correlations between solar activity and surface air temperature over the 50–60° and 60–70° zones for cycle 22, and for cycle 23, over the 30–40°, 40–50°, and 50–60° zones.The most pronounced power peaks for surface air temperature found by multitaper method are around 1.2, 1.7, and 2.5 years which were reported earlier for some solar activity indicators. These results support the suggestion that there is signature of solar activity effect on surface air temperature of mid-latitudes.  相似文献   

4.
The linkage between multi-decadal climate variability and activity of the sun has been long debated based upon observational evidence from a large number of instrumental and proxy records. It is difficult to evaluate the exact role of each of solar parameters on climate change since instrumentally measured solar related parameters such as Total Solar irradiance (TSI), Ultra Violet (UV), solar wind and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) fluxes are more or less synchronized and only extend back for several decades. Here we report tree-ring carbon-14 based record of 11-year/22-year solar cycles during the Maunder Minimum (17th century) and the early Medieval Maximum Period (9–10th century) to reconstruct the state of the sun and the flux of incoming GCRs. The result strongly indicates that the influence of solar cycles on climate is persistent beyond the period after instrumental observations were initiated. We find that the actual lengths of solar cycles vary depending on the status of long-term solar activity, and that periodicity of the surface air temperatures are also changing synchronously. Temperature variations over the 22-year cycles seem, in general, to be more significant than those associated with the 11-year cycles and in particular around the grand solar minima such as the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD). The polarity dependence of cooling events found in this study suggests that the GCRs can not be excluded from the possible drivers of decadal to multi-decadal climate change.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

The effects induced on the climate by human activity have become a major issue for the new millennium. In order to arrive at sustainable conclusions it is necessary, first of all, to assess and quantify natural climatic changes. In general this is done by analysing available time series. In the case of historical hydrometeorological data sets, a comparative analysis with solar cycles is not usually conducted. This work, however, demonstrates that the effect of solar cycles observed at the Equator is also visible at middle and high latitudes with multiple periodicity of the basic solar frequency (roughly 11 years). This could well be due to the interaction between solar forcing and circulation mechanisms within the atmosphere, i.e. water-air-soil interactions coupled with anthropogenic forcing. This theory has been tested by comparing different types of historical data series with the River Po discharges and cyclic appearance of slime bloom in the Adriatic Sea.  相似文献   

6.
The relations between sunspot numbers and earthquakes (M≧6), solar 10.7 cm radio flux and earthquakes, solar proton events and earthquakes have been analyzed in this paper. It has been found that: (1) Earthquakes occur frequently around the minimum years of solar activity. Generally, the earthquake activities are relatively less during the peak value years of solar activity, some say, around the period when magnetic polarity in the solar polar regions is reversed. (2) the earthquake frequency in the minimum period of solar activity is closely related to the maximum annual means of sunspot numbers, the maximum annual means of solar 10.7 cm radio flux and solar proton events of a whole solar cycle, and the relation between earthquake and solar proton events is closer than others. (3) As judged by above interrelationship, the period from 1995 to 1997 will be the years while earthquake activities are frequent. In the paper, the simple physical discussion has been carried out. These results supported the exploration and studies of some researchers to a certain extent. This work is supported by Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (major item).  相似文献   

7.
Based on large set of observational data (for ∼100 years), it has been demonstrated that the air temperature at midlatitudes in the years close to solar activity maximum is on average higher than in other years by DT = 0.11–0.15 degrees at many meteorological stations. The DT parameter is negative and smaller in magnitude near the equator and poles. A correct (in the energetic sense) physical mechanism by which solar and geomagnetic activities affect the ground level air temperature has been proposed.  相似文献   

8.
Time series for annual means of sunspot numbers, aa-indices of geomagnetic activity and annual numbers of 3-h time intervals with different values of aa-indices (aa≤4 and aa≥30) from 1868 to 1997 have been examined by the method of running-window cross-correlation analysis. It has been found that the solar-geomagnetic correlation varies over time. In particular, long-term variations of the 23-year running correlation appear to have a quasi periodicity of about 40–50 years, superposed on a linear trend, where the trend describes a general decrease of the 23-year running-window correlation between 1868 and the present. Long-term variations of the solar-geomagnetic correlation may result from the quasi-periodic fluctuations of the time lag of geomagnetic indices relative to sunspot numbers, superposed on an upward linear trend of time lag. Secular variations of the northern hemisphere land-air surface temperature anomalies and two solar indices that are potential proxy measures for the total solar irradiance (i.e., the length of the sunspot cycle and the Hoyt and Schatten (Hoyt, D.V., Schatten, K.V., 1993. Journal of Physical Research 98, 18,895–18,906.) composite index) have been compared with the long-term variations of the solar-geomagnetic correlation. The extremum points (points where the derivative vanishes to zero) of these variations are found to occur contemporaneously during the periods of low solar-geomagnetic correlation, suggesting, perhaps, that the long-term variations of solar-geomagnetic correlation are due to some long-term processes on the Sun and that they have a measurable effect on the Earth.  相似文献   

9.
In biology, circadian rhythms with a period of one cycle in 20–28 h are known to be ubiquitous and partly endogenous. Rhythms with a frequency lower than one cycle per day are called ‘infradian rhythms’. Among them are components with one cycle in about 3.5, 7, 14 and 28 days, the multiseptans, which, like the circadians, must be regarded as a general characteristic of life: they characterize unicells as well as much more differentiated organisms. We hypothesize that heliogeophysical factors other than the solar visible light, held responsible for the evolution of circadian periodicity, underlie the infradian rhythms of biosystems. The periodicities in the solar wind and variations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) which are associated with the solar rotation are very similar in length to the biological periodicities. We investigate the temporal relations of variations in solar activity and in biological systems to test associations between events in the IMF, in geomagnetic disturbance, in myocardial infarction and in physiology. By cross-spectral analysis, we also find relations at certain frequencies between changes in human physiology on the one hand, and (1) the vertical component of the induction vector of the IMF, Bz, and (2) a global index of geomagnetic disturbance, Kp, on the other hand. We wish to stimulate interest in these periodicities of both biological systems and geophysical endpoints among physicists and biologists alike, so that problems relevant to clinicians and other biologists, including evolutionists, are eventually solved by their cooperation with the geophysical community.  相似文献   

10.
Considerable variations in the cloud cover level and air temperature, related to the variations in GCRs and IMF, have been revealed based on an analysis of the meteorological and aerological data obtained at Vostok station from 1974 to 1994. It has been found out that the cloud cover at Vostok decreased, on average, by 35% a day after powerful Forbush decreases in GCRs following a considerable increase in the southward IMF component. In the years of solar activity minimum, when the variations in SCRs and GCRs are insignificant, the cloudiness and surface temperature increase on a day of B z minimum and decrease on a day of maximum as compared to the average level. On days of B z minimum, the air temperature rises at altitudes of h = 3.5–7 km, remains almost unchanged at an altitude of h = 8 km, and slightly decreases at higher altitudes. An increase in cloudiness at altitudes below 8 km causes warming, probably due to the greenhouse effect, because the temperature of the Earth’s surface decreases.  相似文献   

11.
Information about variations in solar activity and climate on the time intervals from 130 years to four–five last centuries, including results of instrumental measurements (Wolf numbers, actinometry, thermometry) and indirect indicators (ice core acidity, NO 3 ? ion concentration in polar ice, temperature tree-ring reconstructions), has been analyzed for the Northern Hemisphere and its high-latitude part. It has been obtained that the observed relation between secular variations in solar activity and near-Earth temperature resulted from the effect of the corresponding variation in aerosol transparency of the stratosphere on terrestrial climate. It has been also indicated that long-term variations in the aerosol content of the stratosphere can, in turn, be related to secular cycles in atmospheric ionization caused by variations in fluxes of ionizing cosmic particles.  相似文献   

12.
Summary After the removal of the eleven-year periodicity, long-term patterns of the aa indices of geomagnetic activity and of Wolf's sunspot numbers are defined. The positions of maxima and minima exhibit the same regularities as the secular variations of the geomagnetic filed components. This result is associated with the motion of the Sun round the barycentre of the solar system.Presented at symposium Planet 88, Tihany, September 1988.  相似文献   

13.
The most reliable pattern of climate changes is obtained using data of instrumental observations at the network of meteorological stations. However, the series of such data have short timescales (about 150 years). Indirect data from natural archives make it possible to judge specific features of climate changes in the more distant past. In contrast to indirect methods, when data are related to temperature through statistical correlations with air temperature, the borehole geothermal method makes it possible to directly determine the surface air temperature. The reconstructions of the temperature obtained using different indirect data for the Northern Hemisphere have been compared with the surface air temperature reconstructions based on the data of borehole thermometry and solar activity variations, and the possibilities of using the method in order to reconstruct long-term trends in climate changes have been indicated.  相似文献   

14.
The paper focuses on climate variations caused by the orbital effect and solar activity over the last one million years and oscillations (warming or cooling) of the climate since the last ice age retreat. Attention is paid to a significant discrepancy in the trend of global temperature change during the modern interglacial epoch (Holocene) obtained by various methods. A long-term cooling trend was observed in the summer temperature of the Northern Hemisphere during the last 2000 years.  相似文献   

15.
The most reliable pattern of climate changes is obtained using data of instrumental observations at the network of meteorological stations. However, the series of such data have short timescales (about 150 years). Indirect data from natural archives make it possible to judge specific features of climate changes in the more distant past. In contrast to indirect methods, when data are related to temperature through statistical correlations with air temperature, the borehole geothermal method makes it possible to directly determine the surface air temperature. The reconstructions of the temperature obtained using different indirect data for the Northern Hemisphere have been compared with the surface air temperature reconstructions based on the data of borehole thermometry and solar activity variations, and the possibilities of using the method in order to reconstruct long-term trends in climate changes have been indicated.  相似文献   

16.
We analyze the longest temperature series from Prague, Bologna and Uccle. We partition daily minimum and maximum temperatures and their differences in two subsets as a function of high vs low solar activity, using the superimposed epochs method. Differences display patterns with significant amplitudes and time constants ～3 months. These are recognized in all stations and are stable against a change in the analyzed period. Amplitude of variations is ～1 °C. Differences between average annual values corresponding to high vs low activity periods are also ～1 °C. Solar activity may account for these long-term temperature variations. These variations also present local characteristics, which may render identification of a global correlation delicate. We discuss possible physical mechanisms by which solar variation could force climate changes (e.g. through solar activity itself, the EUV part of the solar flux, cosmic rays, the downward ionosphere-earth current density, etc.).  相似文献   

17.
It is uncertain whether the solar cycle 24 will have a high or a low sunspot maximum number. In its last revision the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel indicates that the low prediction is the most likely. Also, solar cycle 25 is considered to present an equal or lower activity than cycle 24. In order to assess the possible effect of the solar activity on temperature, in the present work we attempt to model the tendency of the Northern Hemisphere temperature for the years 2009–2029, corresponding to solar cycles 24 and 25, using a thermodynamic climate model. We include as forcings the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and the solar activity by means of the total solar irradiance, considering that the latter has not only a direct effect on climate, but also an indirect one through the modulation of the low cloud cover. We use two IPCC-2007 CO2 scenarios, one with a high fossil consumption and other with a low use of fossil sources. Also we consider higher and lower solar activity conditions. We found that in all the performed experiments the inclusion of the solar activity produces a noticeable reduction in warming respect to the IPCC-2007 CO2 scenarios. Such reduction goes between ～14% and ～44%. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the TCM, we use the root mean square (RMS) between the observed and model temperatures for the period 1980–2003. We find that the RMS for the experiment using the CO2 as the only forcing is 0.06 °C,while for the experiment that includes also the solar activity it is higher, 0.13 °C.  相似文献   

18.
To make a long-term prediction of the solar cycle in a standard way (GOST 25645.302-83), it is necessary to know the instant of the activity minimum onset, the determination of which is difficult during the decline stage of the previous cycle. The dependence of the long-term prediction error on the time of shift (t) relative to the solar activity minimum instant (i.e., the situation when a certain time before the minimum onset, rather than the time of this minimum, is the initial point of calculations) has been studied. It has been indicated that one should not know the exact time of the activity minimum onset in order to make prediction according to GOST, and such a prediction can be performed with an approximately identical error if the lead time is t ～ 1 year and more relative to the activity minimum onset. An analysis of the dependence of prognostic W max values on t for cycles 18–23 indicated that prognostic W max values are overestimated at small (to ～ 1 year) uncertainties in the time of activity minimum onset. It has been obtained that W max = 96 ± 13 for cycle 24 on the assumption that this cycle began in April 2007.  相似文献   

19.
There have been a number of investigations for examining the possible link between long-term climate variability and solar activity.A continuous δ18O record of peat cellulose covering the past 6000 years and the response of climate variation inferred from the proxy record to solar forcing are reported.Results show that during the past 5000 years the abrupt climate variations,including 17 warming and 17 cooling,and a serious of periodicities,such as 86,101,110,127,132,140,155,207,245,311,820 and 1050 years,are strikingly correlative to the changes of solar irradiation and periodicity.These observations are considered as further evidence for a close relationship between solar activity and climate variations on time scales of decades to centuries.  相似文献   

20.
There have been a number of investigations for examining the possible link between long-term climate variability and solar activity. A continuous δ18O record of peat cellulose covering the past 6 000 years and the response of climate variation inferred from the proxy record to solar forcing are reported. Results show that during the past 5 000 years the abrupt climate variations, including 17 warming and 17 cooling, and a serious of periodicities, such as 86, 101, 110, 127, 132, 140, 155, 207, 245, 311, 820 and 1 050 years, are strikingly correlative to the changes of solar irradiation and periodicity. These observations are considered as further evidence for a close relationship between solar activity and climate variations on time scales of decades to centuries.  相似文献   

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