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1.
B. A. Dzeboev S. M. Agayan Yu. I. Zharkikh R. I. Krasnoperov Yu. V. Barykina 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2018,54(2):284-291
The paper continues the series of our works on recognizing the areas prone to the strongest, strong, and significant earthquakes with the use of the Formalized Clustering And Zoning (FCAZ) intellectual clustering system. We recognized the zones prone to the probable emergence of epicenters of the strongest (M ≥ 74/3) earthquakes on the Pacific Coast of Kamchatka. The FCAZ-zones are compared to the zones that were recognized in 1984 by the classical recognition method for Earthquake-Prone Areas (EPA) by transferring the criteria of high seismicity from the Andes mountain belt to the territory of Kamchatka. The FCAZ recognition was carried out with two-dimensional and three-dimensional objects of recognition. 相似文献
2.
A. D. Gvishiani B. A. Dzeboev N. A. Sergeyeva A. I. Rybkina 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2017,53(3):353-365
With the use of the modified version of the original algorithmic Formalized Clustering and Zoning (FCAZ) system, the areas prone to the probable emergence of the epicenters of significant earthquakes are recognized in the joint region of the Crimea and western part of the Northern Caucasus. The selection of this region is justified by the tectonic structure and the presence of the active junction zone of the meganticlinoria. The reliability of the obtained recognition is substantiated by the comparative analysis of the actual and random FCAZ-recognition. For the first time, the problem of recognizing the locations of the probable emergence of the earthquakes' epicenters is solved for two different magnitude thresholds. This allows us to interpret the areas prone to the probable emergence of the epicenters of significant earthquakes as fuzzy sets. 相似文献
3.
Alexander A. Soloviev A. I. Gorshkov Anatoly A. Soloviev 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2016,52(6):803-809
For the first time, an attempt is made to apply the data on the lithospheric magnetic anomalies of the Earth for determining the areas prone to strong earthquakes by means of the pattern recognition algorithms. The Caucasian region with the threshold magnitude of the strong earthquakes M0 = 6 is considered. It is established that the data on the lithospheric magnetic anomalies are informative from the standpoint of recognizing the strong earthquake prone areas. Application of these data is promising for solving the similar problems for different seismically active regions. 相似文献
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7级以上的强震并不是在一片空白上突然发生的,而是在一种间歇性的地震活动背景下发生的,研究这种背景地震活动的规律,为判定一个活动期的强震的潜在震源区提供信息。本文通过对华北历史上记录到的18次7级以上强震的震前史和震后史的研究,提出了华北地区强震背景地震活动的四条规律:①强震前多有6级以上的背景地震发生;②并且多有信息地震发生;③短时间近距离的两个强震之间可能出现缓震现象;④强震具有一定的减震作用。文中根据这四条规律,对华北地区1501——1730年的强震潜在震源区做了判别分析。 相似文献
6.
地震统计区的划分是研究地震活动性的重要前提和基础,通过对青藏高原北部地区构造地质背景的分析,依据地球物理特征和强震活动特点,讨论和划分该区地震活动统计区,探讨研究区地震活动的复发特点、地震构造特征、潜在地震危险性及强度,分析研究区未来强震发生的强度和可能地点,结果表明,目前青藏高原北部地区处于第8个活跃期,仍存在发生强震的可能,且未来数年存在发生7级以上地震的可能,应密切东昆仑断裂带东段和祁连山中西段地区。 相似文献
7.
Based on the morphostructural zoning scheme of the Caucasus, the block structure reflecting the real fault geometry and the block formation of the region is constructed. Several dozens of numerical experiments are conducted for simulating the dynamics of the block structure and the arising seismicity. The modeling relies on the following principles. It is assumed that the structure is composed of perfectly rigid blocks separated by infinitely thin fault planes. On the fault planes and on the blocks' bottoms, the blocks viscoelastically interact with each other and with the underlying medium. At each time instant, the translational displacements and rotations of the blocks are calculated from the condition of the quasi-static equilibrium of the entire block structure. The earthquakes occur in accordance with the dry friction model at the time instants when within a certain segment of the fault the stress-to-pressure ratio exceeds the given threshold. The modeling yields the synthetic catalog of the Caucasian earthquakes the spatial distribution of which reflects a set of characteristic features of the real seismicity. The similarity is observed in the magnitude–frequency diagrams of the synthetic and real seismicity. The comparison of the positions of the epicenters of the strong synthetic earthquakes with the results of recognizing the highly seismically active areas in the Caucasus demonstrates the presence of such epicenters in a few highly active areas where, according to the observations, strong earthquakes have not occurred to date. 相似文献
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对地震活动性进行层次结构分析可划分出不同的地震区带,中国大陆的地震活动可分为9个地震区带,分析各个区带的地震活动性可作出某一活跃期强震发生主体地区的判别,对某一个地震区带的地震活动进行层次结构分析可作出地震危险区预测。用震源面投影图代替点投影的震中分布图可更合理地解释一个构造带上强震的发生过程,更清楚地勾画出未来强震的孕震范围。对强震破裂区闭锁段、背景空区、孕震空区的关系用实测震例进行了解释。 相似文献
9.
根据阿部胜征新近研究和发表的均匀化全球大地震目录(1897——1980),获得如下几点关于全球强震活动性统计特征的初步认识:(1)本世纪六十年代中期之后,全球活动处于相对平静的阶段;(2)在全球活动高潮时段中b值偏低,大陆地震区的b值偏低;(3)据聚类分析方法研究序列的结果,全球不同的地震区内,存在几十年尺度的强震活动高潮幕和平静幕交替出现的现象;(4)北半球大陆浅源强震活动的空间分布和地球自转速率的变化特征有关。上述特征对估计全球和不同地震区的地震活动趋势可能有参考意义。 相似文献
10.
In 1972, V. Keilis-Borok and I. Gelfand introduced the phenomenological approach based on the morphostructural zoning and pattern recognition for identification of earthquake-prone areas. This methodology identifies seismogenic nodes capable of generating strong earthquakes on the basis of geological, morphological, and geophysical data, which do not contain information on past seismicity. In the period 1972–2018, totally, 26 worldwide seismic regions have been studied and maps showing the recognized earthquake-prone areas in each region have been published. After that, 11 of these regions were hit by earthquakes of the relevant sizes. The goal of this work is to analyze the correlation of the post-publication events with seismogenic nodes defined in these 11 regions. The test was performed using the NEIC earthquake catalog because it uniformly defines the location and magnitudes of earthquakes over the globe. The ArcMap facilities were exploited to plot the post-publication events on the maps showing the recognized seismogenic nodes. We found that about 86% of such events fall in the recognized seismogenic nodes. The performed test proved the sufficient validity of the methodology for identifying areas capable of strong earthquakes and confirms the idea on nucleating strong earthquakes at the nodes. 相似文献
11.
Michael E. Wysession Emile A. Okal Kristin L. Miller 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1991,135(2):261-359
We establish here a comprehensive database of intraplate seismicity in the Pacific Basin. Relocation and analysis of 894 earthquakes yield 403 reliable intraplate earthquakes during 1913–1988. These numbers do not include earthquake swarms, which account for another 838 events. Most of the remainder (304 events) are actually plate boundary earthquakes that have been erroneously located in intraplate regions. A significant number occur in recent years when location capabilities should have guarded against this situation. Relocations involve a careful linear inversion ofP andS arrivals, accompanied by a Monte Carlo statistical analysis. We have also attentively removed the high number of clerical errors and nuclear tests that exist in epicenter bulletins.A geographical examination of the relocated epicenters reveals several striking features. There are three NW-SE lineaments north of the Fiji Plateau and in Micronesia; diffuse seismicity and incompatible focal mechanisms argue against the southernmost, discussed byOkal
et al. (1986) andKroenke andWalker (1986), as the simple relocation of the Solomon trench to the North. Besides another striking lineament, along the 130°W meridian, there is also a strong correlation between seismicity and bathymetry in certain parts of the Basin. In the Eastcentral Pacific and Nazca plates there are many epicenters on fracture zones and fossil spreading ridges, and hot spot traces like the Louisville, Nazca and Cocos Ridges also display seismicity. 相似文献
12.
WEN-ZHENG YANG 《地震学报(英文版)》1999,12(1):35-45
With the theory of subcritical crack growth, we can deduce the fundamental equation of regional seismicity acceleration model. Applying this model to intraplate earthquake regions, we select three earthquake subplates: North China Subplate, Chuan-Dian Block and Xinjiang Subplate, and divide the three subplates into seven researched regions by the difference of seismicity and tectonic conditions. With the modified equation given by Sornette and Sammis (1995), we analysis the seismicity of each region. To those strong earthquakes already occurred in these region, the model can give close fitting of magnitude and occurrence time, and the result in this article indicates that the seismicity acceleration model can also be used for describing the seismicity of intraplate. In the article, we give the magnitude and occurrence time of possible strong earthquakes in Shanxi, Ordos, Bole-Tuokexun, Ayinke-Wuqia earthquake regions. In the same subplate or block, the earthquake periods for each earthquake region are similar in time interval. The constant αin model can be used to describe the intensity of regional seismicity, and for the Chinese Mainland, α is 0.4 generally. To the seismicity in Taiwan and other regions with complex tectonic conditions, the model does not fit well at present. 相似文献
13.
Andaman-Sumatra island arc: 1. Spatiotemporal manifestations and focal mechanisms of the earthquakes 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The spatiotemporal manifestations of seismicity in the Andaman-Sumatra island arc are studied using the instrumental data
for 1900–2010. The data on the largest tsunamigenic earthquakes of the 18th–19th centuries were also taken into account. The
epicenters of the earthquakes are established to cluster in some areas; their possible relation to the structural features
of the island arc is considered. A distinctive feature of seismicity in the region of the Andaman Sea is the presence of compact
swarms of numerous earthquakes occurring during short intervals of time. The distribution of the earthquakes by the depth
of their hypocenters in different segments of the island arc is investigated. The focal mechanisms of the earthquakes are
analyzed using the centroid-moment-tensor (CMT) determinations over the period of 1980–2004, and the characteristic features
of their parameters in different segments of the Andaman-Sumatra island arc are formulated. The focal parameters of the earthquakes
determined by CMT and the moment-tensor-solution (MTS) are compared; the possible uncertainty in the estimates of the focal
mechanisms is assessed. The pattern of the spatiotemporal manifestations of the Andaman-Sumatra earthquakes and their focal
mechanisms are compared to the data on the Kuril-Kamchatka and the Aleutian island arcs previously studied by the authors.
The results of analyzing the long-term seismicity and focal mechanisms in the Andaman-Sumatra island arc provide a necessary
basis for the further thorough investigation of the geological conditions and source parameters of the major Sumatra earthquakes
of 2000–2010. 相似文献
14.
强地震发生前,区域地震活动往往出现应变释放加速(AMR)现象。本文以华北地区的1976年唐山7.8级地震、1998年张北6.2级地震、2006年文安5.1级地震作为目标地震,分别分析三次主震前4~8年期间、40~120 km半径范围内的AMR现象及其特征。结果显示,唐山7.8级地震与张北6.2级地震之前均不同程度出现AMR异常,但文安5.1级地震之前并未出现。另外,本研究发现80 km半径可能是研究区寻找AMR异常有效、合理的空间扫描尺度。基于这三个震例研究的认识,本文进一步针对晋冀蒙交界地区和首都圈地区进行分析计算,结果识别出首都圈地区至目前存在AMR异常地区,这可作为判定华北北部未来强震危险性的参考。 相似文献
15.
地震构造是强震发生的必要基础,强震的孕育和发生与构造密切相关。强震的孕育和发生不仅与震中周围构造有关,而且与孕震区所在的整个构造带有关。这就表明整个构造带的地震活动性与未来强震都有关联。因此,在做测震学参数异常预测地震时,必须考虑整个构造带的地震活动。过去人们常以震中周围地区的地震活动资料来做测震学参数的异常分析,可能会丢失部分信息。文中以金沙江—红河边界带和地震学参量Mf值的结合为例,对基于活动地块边界带的测震学参数强震预测进行了探索,其结果对丽江地震预测效果很好,这对边界带的地震危险性判定有某种参考价值。 相似文献
16.
Zhang Guomin Li Li and Shi YaolinCenter for Analysis Prediction CSB Beijing China Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China 《中国地震研究》1999,(4)
The relationship between the strain cumulative rate (i.e., the crustal strain rate, or CSR in short) and seismic activity is analyzed to develop a new method to determine risky regions for strong shocks within recent years by the recorded crustal strain field. Seismic activity, especially the recurrence period, is different in different areas. Ding Guoyu (1984) pointed out that, for different seismic regions, the difference in the recurrence period of strong earthquakes is mainly controlled by their difference in the rate of the tectonic movement, which is controlled by the seismogenic environment and the tectonic conditions. The method of determining the risky regions for strong shocks from the gradient of vertical strain rates observed in a geodetic survey is preliminarily tested with the earthquakes in recent years; the results show that this method is effective and useful for earthquake prediction. The relationship between CSR and seismicity in a specific region is studied with strain theories, obse 相似文献
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The fuzzy clustering and zoning method (FCAZm) of systems analysis is suggested for recognizing the areas of the probable generation of the epicenters of significant, strong, and the strongest earthquakes. FCAZm is a modified version of the previous FCAZ algorithmic system, which is advanced by the creation of the blocks of artificial intelligence that develop the system-forming algorithms. FCAZm has been applied for recognizing areas where the epicenters of the strongest (M ≥ 73/4) earthquakes within the Andes mountain belt in the South America and significant earthquakes (M ≥ 5) in the Caucasus can emerge. The reliability of the obtained results was assessed by the seismic-history type control experiments. The recognized highly seismic zones were compared with the ones previously recognized by the EPA method and by the initial version of the FCAZ system. The modified FCAZm system enabled us to pass from simple pattern recognition in the problem of recognizing the locations of the probable emergence of strong earthquakes to systems analysis. In particular, using FCAZm we managed to uniquely recognize a subsystem of highly seismically active zones from the nonempty complement using the exact boundary. 相似文献
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使用Frankel提出的基于空间光滑地震活动性模型的地震危险性分析方法,选择华南、华北、川滇3个地区的地震记录,比较分析了高斯、幂律和地震分形分布光滑函数3种光滑函数在不同地区的适用性．结果表明,使用交叉验证法可以为高斯光滑函数选取合适的相关距离c值,光滑得到的地震活动性模型能够真实反映研究区域的地震活动特征,根据活动性模型计算得出的峰值加速度(PGA)分布也符合人们对研究区域地震危险性的认识．幂律光滑函数适用于地震活动性较强的地区,且具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．光滑程度较低的幂律光滑函数不适用于地震活动性弱的地区,在该类地区应选择光滑程度较高的高斯光滑函数．地震分形分布光滑函数不适用于地震活动较强且地震活动强度差异较大的地区,其容易过分高估高震级地震对地震危险性的影响,而忽略了低震级地震对地震危险性的贡献．但对于地震活动较弱且地震活动强度差异较小的地区,可使用地震分形分布光滑函数,且同样具有容易求取光滑参数的优点． 相似文献