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1.
Hsieh  William W.  Bryan  Kirk 《Climate Dynamics》1996,12(8):535-544
Future sea level rise from thermal expansion of the World Ocean due to global warming has been explored in several recent studies using coupled ocean-atmosphere models. These coupled models show that the heat input by the model atmosphere to the ocean in such an event could be quite non-uniform in different areas of the ocean. One of the most significant effects predicted by some of the models is a weakening of the thermohaline circulation, which normally transports heat poleward. Since the greatest heat input from enhanced greenhouse warming is in the higher latitudes, a weakening of the poleward heat transport effectively redistributes the heat anomaly and the associated sea level rise to lower latitudes. In this study, the mechanism of ocean circulation spindown and heat redistribution was studied in the context of a much simpler, linearized shallow water model. Although the model is much simpler than the three-dimensional ocean circulation models used in the coupled model experiments, and neglects several important physical effects, it has a nearly 10-fold increase in horizontal resolution and clearer dynamical interpretations. The results indicated that advanced signals of sea level rise propagated rapidly through the action of Kelvin and Rossby waves, but the full adjustment toward a more uniform sea level rise took place much more slowly. Long time scales were required to redistribute mass through narrow currents trapped along coasts and the equatorial wave guide. For realistic greenhouse warming, the model showed why the sea level rise due to ocean heating could be far from uniform over the globe and hence difficult to estimate from coastal tide gauge stations.  相似文献   

2.
 In this study we investigate the role of heat, freshwater and momentum fluxes in changing the oceanic climate and thermohaline circulation as a consequence of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Two baseline integrations with a fully coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model with either fixed or increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been performed. In a set of sensitivity experiments either freshwater (precipitation, evaporation and runoff from the continents) and/or momentum fluxes were no longer simulated, but prescribed according to one of the fully coupled baseline experiments. This approach gives a direct estimate of the contribution from the individual flux components. The direct effect of surface warming and the associated feedbacks in ocean circulation are the dominant processes in weakening the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in our model. The relative contribution of momentum and freshwater fluxes to the total response turned out to be less than 25%, each. Changes in atmospheric water vapour transport lead to enhanced freshwater input into middle and high latitudes, which weakens the overturning. A stronger export of freshwater from the Atlantic drainage basin to the Indian and Pacific ocean, on the other hand, intensifies the Atlantic overturning circulation. In total the modified freshwater fluxes slightly weaken the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The contribution of the modified momentum fluxes has a similar magnitude, but enhances the formation of North Atlantic deep water. Salinity anomalies in the Atlantic as a consequence of greenhouse warming stem in almost equal parts from changes in net freshwater fluxes and from changes in ocean circulation caused by the surface warming due to atmospheric heat fluxes. Important effects of the momentum fluxes are a poleward shift of the front between Northern Hemisphere subtropical and subpolar gyres and a southward shift in the position of the Antarctic circumpolar current, with a clear signal in sea level. Received: 3 May 1999 / Accepted: 11 December 1999  相似文献   

3.
 The stability of the thermohaline circulation is investigated using an ocean general circulation model coupled to a simple atmospheric model. The atmospheric model is so developed that it represents the wind stress and the freshwater flux more realistically than existing energy balance models. The coupled model can reproduce the realistic deep ocean circulation without any flux adjustment. Effects of the wind stress and the vertical diffusion on the thermohaline circulation are studied by conducting various experiments with the coupled model. The Ekman upwelling between 60∘N and 90∘N brings up salt to the sea surface, while the compensation flow of the Ekman transport and the wind-driven gyre circulation between 30∘N and 60∘N carry salt horizontally to the high latitudes. By carrying out experiments where the wind stress is completely or partly removed, it is demonstrated that either of the vertical or the horizontal salt transport prevents the halocline formation at high latitudes and maintains the thermohaline circulation. For an experiment in which the vertical diffusivity is enhanced at high latitudes, it is shown that the vertical diffusion at high latitudes also prevents the halocline formation and stabilizes the thermohaline circulation. It is also shown that the value of the vertical diffusivity at high latitude affects the existence of the multiple equilibria of the thermohaline circulation. Received: 26 April 2000 / Accepted: 10 January 2001  相似文献   

4.
Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  
Using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3, we investigate changes in sea surface elevation due to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC). In addition to a global sea level rise due to a warming of the deep sea, this leads to a regional dynamic sea level change which follows quasi-instantaneously any change in the ocean circulation. We show that the magnitude of this dynamic effect can locally reach up to ~1 m, depending on the initial THC strength. In some regions the rate of change can be up to 20–25 mm/yr. The emerging patterns are discussed with respect to the oceanic circulation changes. Most prominent is a south-north gradient reflecting the changes in geostrophic surface currents. Our results suggest that an analysis of observed sea level change patterns could be useful for monitoring the THC strength.  相似文献   

5.
Most state-of-the art global coupled models simulate a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in climate change scenarios but the mechanisms leading to this weakening are still being debated. The third version of the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques) global atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model (CNRM-CM3) was used to conduct climate change experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). The analysis of the A1B scenario experiment shows that global warming leads to a slowdown of North Atlantic deep ocean convection and thermohaline circulation south of Iceland. This slowdown is triggered by a freshening of the Arctic Ocean and an increase in freshwater outflow through Fram Strait. Sea ice melting in the Barents Sea induces a local amplification of the surface warming, which enhances the cyclonic atmospheric circulation around Spitzberg. This anti-clockwise circulation forces an increase in Fram Strait outflow and a simultaneous increase in ocean transport of warm waters toward the Barents Sea, favouring further sea ice melting and surface warming in the Barents Sea. Additionally, the retreat of sea ice allows more deep water formation north of Iceland and the thermohaline circulation strengthens there. The transport of warm and saline waters toward the Barents Sea is further enhanced, which constitutes a second positive feedback.  相似文献   

6.
Under global warming, the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures, changes to the density-driven ocean circulation are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate, potentially allowing rapid changes, as seen in the past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and timescales are poorly understood in detail, however, especially at low latitudes where the effects of salinity are relatively subtle. In an attempt to resolve some of these outstanding issues, we present an investigation of the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific region to changes in freshwater forcing. Initiated from the present-day thermohaline structure, a control run of a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is compared with a perturbation run in which the net freshwater flux is prescribed to be zero over the ocean. Such an extreme experiment helps to elucidate the general adjustment mechanisms and their timescales. The atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are held constant, and we restrict our attention to the adjustment of the upper 1,000 m of the Pacific Ocean between 40°N and 40°S, over 100 years. In the perturbation run, changes to the surface buoyancy, near-surface vertical mixing and mixed-layer depth are established within 1 year. Subsequently, relative to the control run, the surface of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean in the perturbation run warms by an average of 0.6°C, and the interior cools by up to 1.1°C, after a few decades. This vertical re-arrangement of the ocean heat content is shown to be achieved by a gradual shutdown of the heat flux due to isopycnal (i.e. along surfaces of constant density) mixing, the vertical component of which is downwards at low latitudes. This heat transfer depends crucially upon the existence of density-compensating temperature and salinity gradients on isopycnal surfaces. The timescale of the thermal changes in the perturbation run is therefore set by the timescale for the decay of isopycnal salinity gradients in response to the eliminated freshwater forcing, which we demonstrate to be around 10–20 years. Such isopycnal heat flux changes may play a role in the response of the low-latitude climate to a future accelerated freshwater cycle. Specifically, the mechanism appears to represent a weak negative sea surface temperature feedback, which we speculate might partially shield from view the anthropogenically-forced global warming signal at low latitudes. Furthermore, since the surface freshwater flux is shown to play a role in determining the ocean’s thermal structure, it follows that evaporation and/or precipitation biases in general circulation models are likely to cause sea surface temperature biases.  相似文献   

7.
Global warming simulations are performed with a coupled climate model of reduced complexity to investigate global warming–marine carbon cycle feedbacks. The model is forced by emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse agents from scenarios recently developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and by CO2 stabilization profiles. The uptake of atmospheric CO2 by the ocean is reduced between 7 to 10% by year 2100 compared to simulations without global warming. The reduction is of similar size in the Southern Ocean and in low‐latitude regions (32.5°S‐32.5°N) until 2100, whereas low‐latitude regions dominate on longer time scales. In the North Atlantic the CO2 uptake is enhanced, unless the Atlantic thermohaline circulation completely collapses. At high latitudes, biologically mediated changes enhance ocean CO2 uptake, whereas in low‐latitude regions the situation is reversed. Different implementations of the marine biosphere yield a range of 5 to 16% for the total reduction in oceanic CO2 uptake until year 2100. Modeled oceanic O2 inventories are significantly reduced in global warming simulations. This suggests that the terrestrial carbon sink deduced from atmospheric O2/N2 observations is potentially overestimated if the oceanic loss of O2 to the atmosphere is not considered.  相似文献   

8.
Vegetation feedback under future global warming   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
It has been well documented that vegetation plays an important role in the climate system. However, vegetation is typically kept constant when climate models are used to project anthropogenic climate change under a range of emission scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Here, an atmospheric general circulation model, and an asynchronously coupled system of an atmospheric and an equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model are forced by monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for the periods 2051?C2060 and 2090?C2098 as projected with 17 atmosphere?Cocean general circulation models participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, and by appropriate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations under the A2 emission scenario. The effects of vegetation feedback under future global warming are then investigated. It is found that the simulated composition and distribution of vegetation during 2051?C2060 (2090?C2098) differ greatly from the present, and global vegetation tends to become denser as expressed by a 21% (36%) increase in global mean leaf area index, which is most pronounced at the middle and high northern latitudes. Vegetation feedback has little effect on globally averaged surface temperature. On a regional scale, however, it induces statistically significant changes in surface temperature, in particular over most parts of continental Eurasia east of about 60°E where annual surface temperature is expected to increase by 0.1?C1.0?K, with an average of about 0.4?K for each future period. These changes can mostly be explained by changes in surface albedo resulting from vegetation changes in the context of future global warming.  相似文献   

9.
The Response of Arctic Sea Ice to Global Change   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
The sea ice-covered polar oceans have received wider attention recently for two reasons. Firstly, the global conveyor belt circulation of the ocean is believed to be forced in the North and South Atlantic through deep water formation, which to a large degree is controlled by the variations of the sea ice margin and especially by the sea ice export to lower latitudes. Secondly, CO2 response experiments with coupled climate models show an enhanced warming in polar regions for increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Whether this large response in high latitudes is due to real physical feedback processes or to unrealistic simplifications of the sea ice model component remains to be determined. Coupled climate models generally use thermodynamic sea ice models or sea ice models with oversimplified dynamics schemes. Realistic dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models are presently implemented only at a few modeling centers. Sensitivity experiments with thermodynamic and dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models show that the more sophisticated models are less sensitive to perturbations of the atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions. Because of the importance of the role of sea ice in mediating between atmosphere and ocean an improved representation of sea ice in global climate models is required. This paper discusses present sea ice modeling as well as the sensitivity of the sea ice cover to changes in the atmospheric boundary conditions. These numerical experiments indicate that the sea ice follows a smooth response function: sea ice thickness and export change by 2% of the mean value per 1 Wm-2 change of the radiative forcing.  相似文献   

10.
Physical processes responsible for tropospheric adjustment to increasing carbon dioxide concentration are investigated using abrupt CO2 quadrupling experiments of a general circulation model (GCM) called the model for interdisciplinary research on climate version 5 with several configurations including a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM, atmospheric GCM, and aqua-planet model. A similar experiment was performed in weather forecast mode to explore timescales of the tropospheric adjustment. We found that the shortwave component of the cloud radiative effect (SWcld) reaches its equilibrium within 2 days of the abrupt CO2 increase. The change in SWcld is positive, associated with reduced clouds in the lower troposphere due to warming and drying by instantaneous radiative forcing. A reduction in surface turbulent heat fluxes and increase of the near-surface stability result in shoaling of the marine boundary layer, which shifts the cloud layer downward. These changes are common to all experiments regardless of model configuration, indicating that the cloud adjustment is primarily independent of air–sea coupling and land–sea thermal contrast. The role of land in cloud adjustment is further examined by a series of idealized aqua-planet experiments, with a rectangular continent of varying width. Land surface warming from quadrupled CO2 induces anomalous upward motion, which increases high cloud and associated negative SWcld over land. The geographic distribution of continents regulates the spatial pattern of the cloud adjustment. A larger continent produces more negative SWcld, which partly compensates for a positive SWcld over the ocean. The land-induced negative adjustment is a factor but not necessary requirement for the tropospheric adjustment.  相似文献   

11.
Responses of ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycle in the course of a global glaciation from the present Earth conditions are investigated by using a coupled climate-biogeochemical model. We investigate steady states of the climate system under colder conditions induced by a reduction of solar constant from the present condition. A globally ice-covered solution is obtained under the solar constant of 92.2% of the present value. We found that because almost all of sea water reaches the frozen point, the ocean stratification is maintained not by temperature but by salinity just before the global glaciation (at the solar constant of 92.3%). It is demonstrated that the ocean circulation is driven not by the surface cooling but by the surface freshwater forcing associated with formation and melting of sea ice. As a result, the deep ocean is ventilated exclusively by deep water formation in southern high latitudes where sea ice production takes place much more massively than northern high latitudes. We also found that atmospheric CO2 concentration decreases through the ocean carbon cycle. This reduction is explained primarily by an increase of solubility of CO2 due to a decrease of sea surface temperature, whereas the export production weakens by 30% just before the global glaciation. In order to investigate the conditions for the atmospheric CO2 reduction to cause global glaciations, we also conduct a series of simulations in which the total amount of carbon in the atmosphere?Cocean system is reduced from the present condition. Under the present solar constant, the results show that the global glaciation takes place when the total carbon decreases to be 70% of the present-day value. Just before the glaciation, weathering rate becomes very small (almost 10% of the present value) and the organic carbon burial declines due to weakened biological productivity. Therefore, outgoing carbon flux from the atmosphere?Cocean system significantly decreases. This suggests the atmosphere?Cocean system has strong negative feedback loops against decline of the total carbon content. The results obtained here imply that some processes outside the atmosphere?Cocean feedback loops may be required to cause global glaciations.  相似文献   

12.
We discuss the potential variations of the biological pump that can be expected from a change in the oceanic circulation in the ongoing global warming. The biogeochemical model is based on the assumption of a perfect stoichiometric composition (Redfield ratios) of organic material. Upwelling nutrients are transformed into organic particles that sink to the deep ocean according to observed profiles. The physical circulation model is driven by the warming pattern as derived from scenario computations of a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The amplitude of the warming is determined from the varying concentration of atmospheric CO2. The model predicts a pronounced weakening of the thermohaline overturning. This is connected with a reduction of the transient uptake capacity of the ocean. It yields also a more effective removal of organic material from the surface which partly compensates the physical effects of solubility. Both effects are rather marginal for the evolution of atmospheric pCO2. Running climate models and carbon cycle models separately seems to be justified. Received: 9 August 1995 / Accepted: 22 April 1996  相似文献   

13.
金向泽  张学洪 《大气科学》1994,18(Z1):769-779
本文是用简单海一气耦合模型模拟温盐环流在全球增暖事件中作用的研究工作的第一部分。为了建立一个简单海一气耦合模型，我们首先根据Ｗｒｉｇｈｔ和Ｓｔｏｋｅｒ等人的设计复制出一个包括大西洋、太平洋和南大洋在内的二维温盐环流模式，从等温、等盐和无运动的初始状态出发，在给定的年平均海表强迫下将模式积分了４０００年，模拟出了和原作相似的温盐环流。对模拟结果的分析表明，相对于北太平洋而言，北大西洋北部的高盐、低温特点（后者是由两大洋在地理上的差别决定的）是形成当代温盐环流的主要原因；从与温盐环流相联系的海表热通量来看，北大西洋北部是向大气提供热量的主要源地；模式温盐环流对于海表盐度通量的敏感性试验的结果表明，对于纬圈平均的二维模式而言，要想模拟出合理的温盐环流就必须人为地提高北大西洋北部的海表盐度，文章分析了这种作法的物理根据；模式中的对流过程对于温盐环流的维持是至关重要的，对比有无季节循环的试验结果可以看出，虽然温度场的明显的季节变化只出现在模式的最上面两层，但由于引进季节循环后冬季高纬海洋的对流活动加强，后者直接影响到温盐环流，使更多的深海热量上传并向大气释放。这是使海洋温跃层得以保持合理．厚度的一个重要原因。  相似文献   

14.
Adjustment and feedbacks in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  
 We report the analysis of two 20-year simulations performed with the low resolution version of the IPSL coupled ocean-atmosphere model, with no flux correction at the air-sea interface. The simulated climate is characterized by a global sea surface temperature warming of about 4 °C in 20 years, driven by a net heat gain at the top of the atmosphere. Despite this drift, the circulation is quite realistic both in the ocean and the atmosphere. Several distinct periods are analyzed. The first corresponds to an adjustment during which the heat gain weakens both at the top of the atmosphere and at the ocean surface, and the tropical circulation is slightly modified. Then, the surface warming is enhanced by an increase of the greenhouse feedback. We show that the mechanisms involved in the model share common features with sensitivity experiments to greenhouse gases or to SST warming. At the top of the atmosphere, most of the longwave trapping in the atmosphere is driven by the tropical circulation. At the surface, the reduction of longwave cooling is a direct response to increased temperature and moisture content at low levels in the atmospheric model. During the last part of the simulation, a regulation occurs from evaporation at the surface and longwave cooling at TOA. Most of the model drift is attributed to a too large heating by solar radiation in middle and high latitudes. The reduction of the north–south temperature gradient, and the related changes in the meridional equator-to-pole ocean heat transport lead to a warming of equatorial and subtropical regions. This is also well demonstrated by the difference between the two simulations which differ only in the parametrization of sea-ice. When the sea-ice cover is not restored to climatology the model does not maintain sea-ice at high latitudes. The climate warms more rapidly and the water vapor and clouds feedback occurs earlier. Received: 24 May 1996 / Accepted: 29 November 1996  相似文献   

15.
W. Cheng  R. Bleck  C. Rooth 《Climate Dynamics》2004,22(6-7):573-590
A century scale integration of a near-global atmosphere–ocean model is used to study the multi-decadal variability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Atlantic. The differences between the coupled and two supplementary ocean-only experiments suggest that a significant component of this variability is controlled by either a collective behavior of the ocean and the atmosphere, particularly in the form of air-sea heat exchange, or sub-monthly random noise present in the coupled system. Possible physical mechanisms giving rise to the mode of this THC variability are discussed. The SST anomaly associated with the THC variability resembles an interdecadal SST pattern extracted from observational data, as well as a pattern associated with the 50–60 year THC variability in the GFDL coupled model. In each case, a warming throughout the subpolar North Atlantic but concentrated along the Gulf Stream and its extension is indicated when the THC is strong. Concomitantly, surface air temperature has positive anomalies over the warmer ocean, with the strongest signal located downwind of the warmest SST anomalies and intruding into the western Eurasian Continent. In addition to the thermal response, there are also changes in the atmospheric flow pattern. More specifically, an anomalous northerly wind develops over the Labrador Sea when the THC is stronger than normal, suggesting a local primacy of the atmospheric forcing in the thermohaline perturbation structure.  相似文献   

16.
Organic carbon buried under the great ice sheets of the Northern Hemisphere is suggested to be the missing link in the atmospheric CO2 change over the glacial-interglacial cycles. At glaciation, the advancement of continental ice sheets buries vegetation and soil carbon accumulated during warmer pe-riods. At deglaciation, this burial carbon is released back into the atmosphere. In a simulation over two glacial-interglacial cycles using a synchronously coupled atmosphere-land-ocean carbon model forced by reconstructed climate change, it is found that there is a 547-Gt terrestrial carbon release from glacial maximum to interglacial, resulting in a 60-Gt (about 30-ppmv) increase in the atmospheric CO2, with the remainder absorbed by the ocean in a scenario in which ocean acts as a passive buffer. This is in contrast to previous estimates of a land uptake at deglaciation. This carbon source originates from glacial burial,continental shelf, and other land areas in response to changes in ice cover, sea level, and climate. The input of light isotope enriched terrestrial carbon causes atmospheric δ^13C to drop by about 0.3‰ at deglaciation,followed by a rapid rise towards a high interglacial value in response to oceanic warming and regrowth on land. Together with other ocean based mechanisms such as change in ocean temperature, the glacial burial hypothesis may offer a full explanation of the observed 80-100-ppmv atmospheric CO2 change.  相似文献   

17.
Antarctica and global change   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
W. F. Budd 《Climatic change》1991,18(2-3):271-299
The Antarctic region of the globe is of special importance for a wide range of studies of global change. The IGBP research activities needing special focus for global change should be multidisciplinary, should involve both the geosphere and the biosphere, and should be of global as well as local interest. There are a number of important Antarctic research topics which fit these criteria.A decrease of Antarctic sea ice has a positive feedback on global warming. Reduction in the sea ice also impacts on deep ocean circulation and can give a positive feedback to the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the reduction of a deep ocean sink. Changes in the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet impact on global sea level. A unique historic record of past climate and global environmental changes is being obtained from deep core drilling in the Antarctic ice sheet. Decreases of stratospheric ozone are most pronounced over the Antarctic in spring. The impact of increases in ultraviolet radiation on the biosphere can be studied in the Antarctic as a precurser to possible changes developing elsewhere around the globe. Changes in the atmosphere and ocean circulations resulting from the decrease in Antarctic sea ice cover can have important effects on ocean surface temperatures which impact on the climates of the continents.These topics are discussed briefly and a number of Antarctic research areas are highlighted which build on existing or planned international programmes and which can make critical contributions to multidisciplinary studies of global change.  相似文献   

18.
本文利用全球三维大气耦合混合层海洋环流模式模拟大气中二氧化碳浓度增加对土壤湿度的影响。敏感试验(2×CO_2)与控制试验(1×CO_2)对照表明,当大气中二氧化碳浓度增加时,全球土壤湿度在各季发生明显变化。其中两半球低纬度地区在冬季土壤温度变温,两半球中纬度地区则在各季土壤湿度变干,北半球高纬度地区土壤湿度在夏季变干,其余各季变温。分析大气中二氧化碳浓度增加造成土壤温度全球变化的可能物理机制表明,地面水循环和热量循环是重要的因素。  相似文献   

19.
Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  
Climate modelers have recognized the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a reorganization of the North Atlantic's current pattern (technically known as a thermohaline circulation collapse). This circulation system now warms north-western Europe and transports carbon dioxide to the deep oceans. The posited collapse of this system could produce severe cooling in northwestern Europe, even when general global warming is in progress. In this paper we use a simple integrated assessment model to investigate the optimal policy response to this risk. Adding the constraint of avoiding a thermohaline circulation collapse would significantly reduce the allowable greenhouse gas emissions in the long run along an optimal path. Our analysis implies that relatively small damages associated with a collapse (less than 1% of gross world product) would justify a considerable reduction of future carbon dioxide emissions.  相似文献   

20.
全球增暖对ENSO影响的数值模拟研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
胡博  李维京  陈鲜艳 《大气科学》2007,31(2):214-221
利用日本东京大学气候系统研究所、日本环境研究所和日本地球环境研究中心联合开发的海气耦合模式MIROC3.2,研究了全球变暖对ENSO年际变率的影响。该模式较好地模拟了ENSO循环的不同阶段表层和次表层海水温度变化,海表温度最大振幅出现在120°W以东,与观测一致,表明模式可以较好反映热带地区大气、海洋的动力、热力特征。研究还比较了控制试验和CO2浓度年增长1%的瞬时试验,结果表明,在全球变暖的大环境下ENSO事件发生频率没有显著变化,但ENSO事件强度增大,年际变率变大;热带太平洋呈现整体增暖趋势,表层温度尤其是热带中太平洋地区温度升高显著。敏感性分析表明,年际ENSO变率的振幅增大的主要贡献来自于海洋。海水增温导致热带太平洋海温垂直梯度增大,在热带西太平洋海温垂直温度梯度变化最为明显;次表层海温对单位大气风应力变化的响应大于表层海温响应。当这种响应与热带太平洋赤道地区径向温度梯度变化的共同作用导致温室效应下ENSO振幅增大。  相似文献   

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