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1.
Summary. ?Cyclone track predictions in the Indian seas (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) with a quasi-Lagrangian model (QLM) have been
attempted. QLM has a horizontal resolution of 40 km and 16 sigma levels in the vertical. It is integrated in a domain of about
4400 × 4400 km2. A new initialization procedure to provide initial fields for running the model has been designed. The initialization procedure
consists of updating the global model forecasts, used as first guess, provided by the National Center for Medium Range Weather
Forecasting (NCMRWF), New Delhi. A new version of IMD’s operational optimum interpolation scheme has been created to suit
the QLM grid structure. Lateral boundary conditions are computed from the extended forecasts of NCMRWF. The track forecasts
in each case show a reasonable skill of the forecast model in predicting the direction of movement within acceptable limits
of forecast errors, which are comparable to some of the best models operated by advanced NWP centers of the world. Even the
recurving storms are well predicted. Evolution of the vertical motion fields are also studied which reveal some interesting
features, which are described in detail in the text. The composited vertical motion fields are projected against observed
rainfall distribution, which show a good spatial correspondence.
Received August 9, 2001; revised March 12, 2002; accepted June 17, 2002
Published online: May 8, 2003 相似文献
2.
为了进一步提高GRAPES_Meso的分析和预报效果,该文在GRAPES_Meso三维变分同化系统中建立了同化GNSS/RO反演的大气资料的观测算子,实现了对GNSS/RO反演的大气资料的同化应用,并通过2013年7月1个月的同化和预报试验分析了GNSS/RO反演大气资料对GRAPES_Meso模式系统分析和预报的影响。结果表明:增加了GNSS/RO反演大气资料的同化后,GRAPES_Meso位势高度场的分析误差明显减小,平均分析误差减小约8%,预报误差略有减小,平均预报误差减小约1%;湿度场的分析误差和预报误差变化不明显,常规观测资料稀少的青藏高原地区的降水预报技巧有所提高,小雨到大雨的ETS (equitable threat score) 评分提高约0.01,对全国及其他分区的降水预报技巧总体上有正效果。 相似文献
3.
Weather forecasting in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica is a challenge above all due to the rarity of observations to be assimilated in numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.As observations are expensive and logistically challenging,it is important to evaluate the benefit that additional observations could bring to NWP.Atmospheric soundings applying unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)have a large potential to supplement conventional radiosonde sounding observations.Here,we applied UAV and radiosonde sounding observations from an RV Polarstern cruise in the ice-covered Weddell Sea in austral winter 2013 to evaluate the impact of their assimilation in the Polar version of the Weather Research and Forecasting(Polar WRF)model.Our experiments revealed small to moderate impacts of radiosonde and UAV data assimilation.In any case,the assimilation of sounding data from both radiosondes and UAVs improved the analyses of air temperature,wind speed,and humidity at the observation site for most of the time.Further,the impact on the results of 5-day-long Polar WRF experiments was often felt over distances of at least 300 km from the observation site.All experiments succeeded in capturing the main features of the evolution of near-surface variables,but the effects of data assimilation varied between different cases.Due to the limited vertical extent of the UAV observations,the impact of their assimilation was limited to the lowermost 1?2-km layer,and assimilation of radiosonde data was more beneficial for modeled sea level pressure and near-surface wind speed. 相似文献
4.
We examine the mesoscale structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), low-level circulation, and trade wind convection
over the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico in mid-summer. Shallow afternoon thunderstorms are frequently seen over the western
plains of the island. Observational data include automatic weather station measurements, radiosonde profiles, infrared satellite
images, and mesoscale reanalysis data with a focus on the summer of 2006. Satellite microwave radar data (TRMM and CloudSat)
indicate that island clouds typically extend just above the −20°C level during afternoon hours with reflectivity values reaching
50 dBz. A singular value decomposition of 3-hourly high resolution satellite rainfall maps reveals an island mode. From this
a composite is constructed for a group of ten cases. With a Froude number ≈1 the trade winds pass over the mountains and standing
vortices and gravity waves are trapped in the meandering wake. The Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km resolution
with 51 vertical layers is used to simulate the short-lived thunderstorms for two cases: 27 June and 20 July 2006. The model
correctly locates the convective cells that develop between 1400 and 1700 LST. The shallow afternoon thunderstorms are triggered
by surface heat fluxes, confluent sea breezes and a mountain wake. Recommendations for enhanced observations are given. 相似文献
5.
S. Hofinger G. J. Mayr E. Dreiseitl M. Kuhn 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2000,72(2-4):175-184
Summary ?Intra-mountain summertime precipitation was studied in the Alps in a 40×20 km2 area centered around Innsbruck, Austria, from June through September 1997. An observational network with a mean separation
distance of 9 km and forecasts from the ECMWF model were used to examine the role the strong forcing from the lower boundary
plays in creating “hot spots” for the formation of thunderstorms and the location of heavy precipitation as well as systematic
precipitation patterns for different weather situations, which can be used to downscale forecasts from global scale routine
numerical weather prediction models.
Received March 16, 1999/Revised August 20, 1999 相似文献
6.
地基微波辐射计观测已经用于数值预报中,并对预报效果产生不同的影响。目前,中国约有上百台地基微波辐射计,但是观测数据用到数值预报系统的很有限。本文尝试将两台地基微波辐射计数据同化到WRF数值预报模式,并针对北京一次暴雨过程,进行同化试验,结合地面雨量计测量结果进行比对。试验结果比较表明:同化地基微波辐射计能较明显影响降水初期的降水强度和分布,与雨量计分布更为接近;随着暴雨系统发展,同化两台地基微波辐射计对大面积强降水系统的影响甚微。 相似文献
7.
Local flash flood storms with a rapid hydrological response are a real challenge for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). It is relevant to assess space domains, to which the QPF approaches are applicable. In this paper an attempt is made to evaluate the forecasting capability of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model by means of area-related QPF verification. The results presented concern two local convective events, which occurred in the Czech Republic (CR) on 13 and 15 July 2002 and caused local flash floods. We used the LM COSMO model (Lokall Model of the COSMO consortium) adapted to the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km over a model domain covering the CR. The 18 h forecast of convective precipitation was verified by using radar rainfall totals adjusted to the measured rain gauge data. The grid point-related root mean square error (RMSE) value was calculated over a square around the grid point under the assumption that rainfall values were randomly distributed within the square. The forecast accuracy was characterized by the mean RMSE over the whole verification domain. We attempt to show a dependence of both the RMSE field and the mean RMSE on the square size. The importance of a suitable merger between the radar and rain gauge datasets is demonstrated by a comparison between the verification results obtained with and without the gauge adjustment. The application of verification procedure demonstrates uncertainties in the precipitation forecasts. The model was integrated with initial conditions shifted by 0.5° distances. The four verifications, corresponding to the shifts in the four directions, show differences in the resulting QPF, which depend on the size of verification area and on the direction of the shift. 相似文献
8.
为了将雷达风场资料更好地应用到数值预报模式中, 使用VAD方法反演多普勒雷达风廓线并处理成标准的探空资料进行变分同化试验。结果表明: VAD方法反演的风廓线与探空实况对应较好, 验证了用VAD技术反演风廓线的可行性。用GRAPES-Meso模式的三维变分同化系统对雷达风廓线资料进行同化后, 风场的初始场明显改善, 降水强度和落区预报也有不同程度的改善。其中, 对6 h降水预报的改善明显优于对24 h的预报改善。另外, 在短时强降水预报中, 雷达风场资料的同化频率和同化窗口的不同, 对降水预报的改善情况也有所差异。在个例研究中, 同化间隔为1 h的方案6 h降水预报要优于同化间隔为3 h和6 h的方案, 同化窗口为3 h的试验方案6 h降水预报要好于同化窗口为6 h的试验方案。 相似文献
9.
Jihyun Ha Kwan-Dong Park Kihoon Kim Yeon-Hee Kim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2010,46(3):233-241
In studies of weather changes and, especially, in enhancing the performance of rainfall prediction, it is important to measure the water vapor distribution in the atmosphere. We estimated atmospheric water vapor profiles for fourteen days, including periods of severe weather conditions, by processing ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements and compared our results with microwave radiometer (MWR) and radiosonde (RAOB) observations. As a result, we found that the standard deviation (STD) of wet refractivity profiles between GPS with MWR was smaller than the STD between RAOB and MWR refractivities; the average STD was 9.3 mm km?1. In particular, we found that GPS-based wet refractivities detected inversion layers close to those from MWR when the observed GPS satellites were well distributed in the azimuth and elevation angle directions. When the satellite geometry was better, the mean error of GPS wet refractivities with respect to MWR was reduced to 0.4 from 3.2 mm km?1 for altitudes lower than 3 km. In some cases, however, the precision of GPS refractivities are lower than that of RAOB ones relative to MWR results. 相似文献
10.
Summary. Mesoscale convective precipitation systems in the Alpine region are studied by analyzing radar and rain gauge data. The data
from weather radars in Austria, France, Germany, and Switzerland are combined into a composite. Availability of radar data
restricts the study mainly to the northern part of the Alpine region. Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) occur often in this
region and are comparable to large systems observed in the USA. Seven precipitation events lasting one to six days from the
years 1992–1996 are examined in detail. They all moved west to east and showed no diurnal preference in formation or dissipation.
They reach sizes of 2 − 6 · 104 km2. MCS with leading-line trailing-stratiform structure tended to be larger and more intense. A 25-year set of rain gauge data
indicates that a giant MCS (covering more than 4 · 104 km2 with more than 30 mm/day) occurs every 6 years in the northern Alpine region. MCS occur more frequently in the southern Alpine
region.
Received February 25, 1999/Revised June 29, 1999 相似文献
11.
Summary During the summer season, typhoons form in the western north Pacific Ocean and travel westward towards China. Some recurve
northward off the coast, whereas others continue in over land. These typhoons bring heavy rainfall to the Huai river basin
in eastern central China. In August 1975, the remnant of typhoon Nina caused exceptionally heavy rainfall in the Hongru river
basin, in the mountainous upper reaches of the Huai river. The rainfall lasted five days from 4 to 8 August. This type of
nearly stationary typhoon can cause rainfall of large intensity for a long duration, and is suitable for maximization to derive
probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates. The PMP is transformed into a probable maximum flood hydrograph that is subsequently
used to design spillways etc. In this study the PMP values have been estimated using a hydrometeorological method involving
depth-area-duration analysis, moisture maximization, and altitude adjustment for typhoon Nina, for 1, 2, and 3 days duration.
Areal PMP values were obtained for the entire Hongru river catchment, as well as for the subcatchments upstream the dams at
Banqiao (762 km2), Shimantan (230 km2), Boshan (580 km2), and Suyahu (4 498 km2). For point values, the PMP was estimated to 1 200 mm/day, 1 460 mm/2 days, and 1 910 mm/3 days at altitudes about 100 m,
which agrees well with previous studies.
Received February 21, 1997 Revised May 27, 1997 相似文献
12.
K. Prasad 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2006,91(1-4):183-199
Summary Results of an earlier study of cyclone track prediction using a quasi-Lagrangian model (QLM) to generate track forecasts of
up to 36 hours were reported by Prasad and Rama Rao (2003). Further experiments to produce track forecasts of up to 72 hours
with an updated version of the same model have been carried out in the present study. In this case, the ability of the model
to predict recent historical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea has been assessed. Analysis of some of the structural
features of analyzed and predicted fields has been carried out. Such fields include wind distribution and vertical motion
around the cyclone centre. In addition, the merging of an idealized vortex with the large scale initial fields provided by
a global model, has been carried out for a particular case study of a May 1997 storm, which hit the Bangladesh coast. This
current study has demonstrated that the model generates a realistic structure of a tropical cyclone with an idealized vortex.
Performance evaluation has been carried out by computing the direct position errors (DPE). The results of which show that
the mean error for a 24 h forecast is about 122 km, which increases to about 256 km for a 48 h forecast and 286 km for a 72 h
forecast. These figures are comparable to similar errors in respect of tropical cyclone forecasts produced by an advanced
NWP centre, viz., the UKMO global model during the corresponding period, 1997–2000 (obtained from UKMO web site). The average
forecast errors of the UKMO model are 160 km for 24 h, 265 km for 48 h, 415 km for 72 h forecast ranges. 相似文献
13.
Summary One of the main objectives of numerical weather prediction models is reliable forecasting of heavy rain events. This paper
discusses problems and strategies of evaluation of daily rain forecasting with operationally available rain station data.
The focus is on spatial upscaling of rain station data to the grid of the direct model output. We show limitations of regression
– or smoothing – based upscaling like as done, for example, by Kriging analysis and promote probabilistic upscaling by ensembles
of stochastic simulations conditioned to the available observations. These ensembles easily provide uncertainties of daily
evaluation and unbiased estimates for second moment comparison statistics.
As an evaluation exercise we assess the quality of daily forecasts for Austria (total area: 84,000 km2) with the limited-area model ALADIN (horizontal grid-spacing 10 km). A quasi–operational set-up is compared to a physically
enhanced but less well tested and tuned set-up. It is shown that the evaluation uncertainty is large, but with a full year
of forecasts available it is possible to conclude that the physically enhanced set-up simulates too much rain and significantly
more than the operational version with only small differences in simulated patterns and variability.
Corresponding author’s address: B. Ahrens, Institut für Atmosph?re und Umwelt, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universit?t Frankfurt,
Altenh?ferallee 1, 60438 Frankfurt a.M., Germany 相似文献
14.
Specifying physically consistent and accurate initial conditions is one of the major challenges of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, ground-based global positioning system (GPS) integrated water vapor (IWV) measurements available from the International Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) Service (IGS) station in Bangalore, India, are used to assess the impact of GPS data on NWP model forecasts over southern India. Two experiments are performed with and without assimilation of GPS-retrieved IWV observations during the Indian winter monsoon period (November–December, 2012) using a four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method. Assimilation of GPS data improved the model IWV analysis as well as the subsequent forecasts. There is a positive impact of ～10 % over Bangalore and nearby regions. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model-predicted 24-h surface temperature forecasts have also improved when compared with observations. Small but significant improvements were found in the rainfall forecasts compared to control experiments. 相似文献
15.
Summary ?The LITFASS project (‘Lindenberg Inhomogeneous Terrain – Fluxes between Atmosphere and Surface: a Long-term Study’) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, German Meteorological Service) aims to develop and to test a strategy for the determination
and parameterisation of the area-averaged turbulent fluxes of heat, momentum, and water vapour over a heterogeneous land surface.
These fluxes will be representative for an area of about 10 * 10 km2 (while the typical patch size is between 10−1 to 100 km2) corresponding to the size of a grid cell in the present operational numerical weather prediction model of the DWD.
LITFASS consists of three components:
– the development of a non-hydrostatic micro-α-scale model (the LITFASS local model – LLM) with a grid-size of about 100 * 100 m2,
– experimental investigations of land surface – atmosphere exchange processes and boundary layer structure within a 20 * 20 km2 area around the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg,
– the assimilation of a data base as an interface between measurements and modelling activities.
The overall project strategy was tested over a three-week period in June 1998 during the LITFASS-98 field experiment. This
paper gives an overview on the LITFASS project, on the design and measurement program of the LITFASS-98 experiment, and on
the weather conditions during the period of the experiment. Conclusions are formulated for the operational realisation of
the LITFASS measurement concept and for future field experiments aimed at studying the land surface – atmosphere interaction
in the Lindenberg area. Selected results from both experimental and modelling activities are presented in a series of companion
papers completing this special issue of the journal.
Received June 18, 2001; revised March 18, 2002; accepted April 2, 2002 相似文献
16.
The impact of Global Positioning System data on the prediction of an extratropical cyclone: an observing system simulation experiment 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this paper, we report a series of observing system simulation experiments that we conducted to assess the potential impact of Global Positioning System/meteorology (GPS/MET) refractivity data on short-range numerical weather prediction. We first conducted a control experiment using the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5 at 90-km resolution on an extratropical cyclone known as the ERICA (Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic) IOP 4 storm. The results from the control experiment were then used to simulate GPS/MET refractivity observations with different spatial resolution and measurement characteristics. The simulated refractivity observations were assimilated into an 180-km model during a 6-h period, which was followed by a 48-h forecast integration. Key findings can be summarized as follows:
- • The assimilation of refractivity data at the 180-km resolution can recover important atmospheric structures in temperature and moisture fields both in the upper and lower troposphere, and, through the internal model dynamical processes, also the wind fields. The assimilation of refractivity data led to a considerably more accurate prediction of the cyclone.
- • Distributing the refractivity randomly in space and applying a line averaging did not alter the results significantly, while reducing the spatial resolution from 180 km to 360 km produced a moderately degraded result. Even at the 360-km resolution, the GPS-type refractivity data still have a notable positive impact on cyclone prediction.
- • Restricting the refractivity data to altitude 3 km and above considerably degraded its impact on cyclone prediction. This degradation was greater than the combined effects of distributing the refractivity data randomly, performing line averaging, and reducing the resolution to 360 km.
17.
Iran enjoys a variety of climatological conditions. Moreover, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are not assimilated with the meteorological data in Iran, the country suffering from poor spatial and temporal resolution of radiosonde measurements. These facts make modeling of troposphere impossible using the measurements and NWP. On the other hand, the global positioning system (GPS) has been emerged as a valuable tool for modeling and remote sensing of Earth’s atmosphere. This research is the first attempt to address the tropospheric wet refractivity modeling by GPS measurements in Iran. Changes of topography in the study area are taken into account. As a leading work, virtual reference stations (VRS) are used to fix the rank deficiency of the problem. The model space resolution matrix is used to achieve the optimum spatial resolution of the tomographic model and the optimum number of VRS stations. The accuracy of the developed model (KNTU1) is investigated by deploying radiosonde measurements. 相似文献
18.
雷达资料与中尺度数值预报的融合方法研究及其在临近预报中的应用 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
通过融合多普勒天气雷达资料与中尺度数值预报产品,发展了一种便于临近预报业务使用的方法。该方法首先通过相关分析计算当前相同时刻雷达估测降水与中尺度数值预报的反射率因子估测降水之间的位置偏差,导出一个位移偏差矢量场;然后,利用人机交互的方式对矢量场进行分区,并对各分区的矢量场进行平滑处理,计算出各分区的平均位移偏差矢量;最后,采用最小二乘法对各分区连续多次的平均位移偏差矢量进行线性拟合,得到各分区平均位移偏差矢量随时间的变化特征,订正未来时段相应区域的数值预报反射率因子估测降水的位置偏差。利用该方法对2012和2013年夏季发生在重庆西部、四川东部的3次强降水天气过程进行临近预报试验并对预报结果进行了检验,结果表明:对0~2 h的临近预报,融合预报效果总体上优于模式预报效果;另外,与雷达外推定量降水预报相比,0~1 h雷达外推预报效果优于融合预报效果,1~2 h融合预报效果优于雷达外推预报效果。 相似文献
19.
为应用风廓线雷达监测降水天气,通过对2006年南京地区一次春季降雨过程的边界层风廓线雷达探测数据和自动站雨量数据进行对比分析和相关性统计,研究了降水发生、维持和消亡期间风廓线雷达资料的变化特征,分析风廓线雷达垂直速度、速度谱宽与降雨强度之间的相关性。结果表明：当降雨临近时,风廓线雷达水平风廓线上的空洞逐渐消失,当降雨结束时空洞再次出现,且伴随着低空急流的出现降水明显增强。随着降雨的发生,风廓线雷达产品的垂直速度、速度谱宽和折射率结构常数值均明显增大。整个降水期间,550 m高度层以下的垂直速度与降水量存在显著线性负相关,450-950 m高度层之间的速度谱宽与降水量存在显著线性正相关,可见垂直速度、速度谱宽的变化与降水强度关系密切;当垂直负速度变小或速度谱宽变大时,降水增强的可能性增大。研究结果揭示了风廓线雷达垂直速度、速度谱宽与降雨强度之间的内在联系,可为风廓线雷达应用于降雨天气的监测。 相似文献
20.
M. Jury H. Rautenbach M. Tadross A. Philipp 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2007,88(3-4):169-177
Summary Spatial scales of variability in seasonal rainfall over Africa are investigated by means of statistical and numerical techniques.
In the statistical analysis spatial structure is studied using gridded 0.5° resolution monthly data in the period 1948–1998.
The de-seasonalized time series are subjected to successive principal component (PC) analysis, allowing the number of modes
to vary from 10 to 24, producing cells of varying dimension. Then the original rainfall data within each cell are cross-correlated
(internal), then averaged and compared with the adjacent cells (external) for each PC solution. By considering the ratio of
internal to external correlation, the spatial scales of rainfall variability are evaluated and an optimum solution is found
whose cell dimensions are approximately 106 km2. The aspect of scale is further studied for southern Africa by consideration of numerical model ensemble simulations over
the period 1985–1999 forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The hindcast products are compared with observed
January to March (JFM) rainfall, based on a station-satellite merged analysis of precipitation (CMAP) data at 2.5° resolution.
Validations for different sized areas indicate that cumulative standardized errors are greatest at the scale of a single grid
cell (104 km2) and decrease 20–30% by averaging over successively larger areas (106 km2). 相似文献