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1.
Method for prediction of landslide movements based on random forests   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  
Prediction of landslide movements with practical application for landslide risk mitigation is a challenge for scientists. This study presents a methodology for prediction of landslide movements using random forests, a machine learning algorithm based on regression trees. The prediction method was established based on a time series consisting of 2 years of data on landslide movement, groundwater level, and precipitation gathered from the Kostanjek landslide monitoring system and nearby meteorological stations in Zagreb (Croatia). Because of complex relations between precipitations and groundwater levels, the process of landslide movement prediction is divided into two separate models: (1) model for prediction of groundwater levels from precipitation data and (2) model for prediction of landslide movements from groundwater level data. In a groundwater level prediction model, 75 parameters were used as predictors, calculated from precipitation and evapotranspiration data. In the landslide movement prediction model, 10 parameters calculated from groundwater level data were used as predictors. Model validation was performed through the prediction of groundwater levels and prediction of landslide movements for the periods from 10 to 90 days. The validation results show the capability of the model to predict the evolution of daily displacements, from predicted variations of groundwater levels, for the period up to 30 days. Practical contributions of the developed method include the possibility of automated predictions, updated and improved on a daily basis, which would be an important source of information for decisions related to crisis management in the case of risky landslide movements.  相似文献   

2.
位于四川省丹巴县梭坡乡的哑喀则滑坡是一大型松散土质边坡。鉴于该滑坡的严重变形和可能失稳造成严重灾害后果,所以选择进行高精度GPS监测。并且阐述了应用GPS监测滑坡时对监测点位选择、数据处理等方法。2007年至今的GPS监测结果显示主滑坡体上监测点平均位移速率达每年0.6～0.9m,表明该滑坡变形严重。结合地表裂缝和植被等地表特征,发现降雨量和坡脚大渡河的冲刷、浸泡对滑坡今后的发育趋势有着决定作用,建议加强监测做好预警预报工作。本文还特别指出在监测期内监测到的地震(2008年5月12日)和人类工程活动对滑坡造成的影响。  相似文献   

3.
Within the SLAM project (Service for Landslide Monitoring), launched in 2003 by the European Space Agency (ESA) the Permanent Scatterers (PS) technique, a multi-image interferometric approach, coupled with the interpretation of aerial-photos and optical satellite images, was carried out for landslide investigations. The PS analysis was applied at a regional scale as support for landslide inventory mapping and at local scale for the monitoring of single well-known slope movements. For the integration of the PS measurements within a landslide inventory the Arno river basin (Italy) was chosen as test site for the presence of a high number of mass movements (to date about 300 areas at high landslide risk and more than 27,000 individual landslides mapped by the institutional authorities). About 350 SAR images have been interferometrically processed by means of the PS technique, with the detection of about 600,000 PS. The use of optical images contributed spatial meaning to the point-wise information provided by the PS, making it easier to identify terrain features related to slope instability and the landslide boundaries. Here we describe the employed methodology and its impact in the updating of a preexisting landslide inventory. 6.8% of the total number of landslides were characterized by ground displacement measurements from the PS: 6.1% of already mapped landslides and 0.8% of new unstable areas detected through the PS analysis. Moreover, most of the PS are located in urban areas, showing that the proposed methodology is suitable for landslide mapping in areas with a quite high density of urbanization, but that over vegetated areas it still suffers from the limitations induced by the current space-borne SAR missions (e.g. temporal de-correlation). On the other hand, the use of InSAR for the monitoring of single slow landslides threatening built-up areas has provided satisfactory results, allowing the measurement of superficial deformations with high accuracy on the landslide sectors characterized by a good radar reflectivity and coherence.  相似文献   

4.
《Engineering Geology》2007,89(3-4):200-217
Within the SLAM project (Service for Landslide Monitoring), launched in 2003 by the European Space Agency (ESA) the Permanent Scatterers (PS) technique, a multi-image interferometric approach, coupled with the interpretation of aerial-photos and optical satellite images, was carried out for landslide investigations. The PS analysis was applied at a regional scale as support for landslide inventory mapping and at local scale for the monitoring of single well-known slope movements. For the integration of the PS measurements within a landslide inventory the Arno river basin (Italy) was chosen as test site for the presence of a high number of mass movements (to date about 300 areas at high landslide risk and more than 27,000 individual landslides mapped by the institutional authorities). About 350 SAR images have been interferometrically processed by means of the PS technique, with the detection of about 600,000 PS. The use of optical images contributed spatial meaning to the point-wise information provided by the PS, making it easier to identify terrain features related to slope instability and the landslide boundaries. Here we describe the employed methodology and its impact in the updating of a preexisting landslide inventory. 6.8% of the total number of landslides were characterized by ground displacement measurements from the PS: 6.1% of already mapped landslides and 0.8% of new unstable areas detected through the PS analysis. Moreover, most of the PS are located in urban areas, showing that the proposed methodology is suitable for landslide mapping in areas with a quite high density of urbanization, but that over vegetated areas it still suffers from the limitations induced by the current space-borne SAR missions (e.g. temporal de-correlation). On the other hand, the use of InSAR for the monitoring of single slow landslides threatening built-up areas has provided satisfactory results, allowing the measurement of superficial deformations with high accuracy on the landslide sectors characterized by a good radar reflectivity and coherence.  相似文献   

5.
Guo-Quan Wang 《Landslides》2012,9(1):117-130
Global positioning system (GPS) technologies have been increasingly employed to monitor landslide movements. This paper demonstrates the use of GPS in the study of a creeping landslide in Ponce, Puerto Rico. The landslide is primarily composed of chalk colluvium that extends to depths of about 30 m at the head zone and 2 to 3 m at the toe zone. The slip surface lies at the base of the chalk colluvium, which slides southeast over a weathered brown mudstone unit. GPS monitoring of the landslide began in March 2008. Both campaign rapid static and continuous static GPS surveying methods were applied. Precision at the level of 0.5 mm horizontally and 1.3 mm vertically was achieved through 24-h continuous GPS monitoring. Rainfall data from a local weather station was also integrated into the study. Rainfall heavily influenced the movements of the landslide. A heavy rainfall in September 2008, which dumped 50 cm rain on the landslide area over a 4-day period, temporarily accelerated the sliding and generated rapid movement of 1 m horizontally and 0.5 m vertically. The slide slowed markedly after this significant movement. A prolonged moderate rainfall in November 2009 also temporarily accelerated the sliding. The landslide remains active. The creeping appears likely to continue in the future with short bursts of rainfall-induced rapid movements. Potential landslide causes are investigated, and two measures to minimize future risk are proposed at the end of the article.  相似文献   

6.
李邵军  李勇  王虎法 《岩土力学》2006,27(Z2):301-305
八尺门滑坡是福建省内迄今所发生的最大公路滑坡,监测是滑坡动态设计和信息化施工的重要内容。在该滑坡施工治理过程中建立了一个大型的滑坡监测系统,为此详细介绍了监测系统设计、现场监测布设及测试方法,开展了包括地表位移、滑体和抗滑桩深部水平位移、抗滑桩土压力、锚索受力、裂缝及地下水位变化等多项目的监测,基于对典型监测成果的综合分析,给出了滑坡的滑动方向、滑面位置、滑坡位移变化、锚索受力及地下水位变化情况等,为滑坡动态设计提供了直接依据,并确保了现场施工和滑坡上的居民安全,有效节约了工程成本。研究成果为相关的滑坡监测工程提供了重要的借鉴意义。  相似文献   

7.
Being the cause of the loss of life and damaging property, landslide is an important natural hazard. Therefore, landslides have to be monitored and preventive measures taken accordingly. In Geodesy, landslides can be determined with static, kinematic and dynamic geodetic models. The aim of this study is to develop a dynamic geodetic model for landslides and compare it with static and kinematic geodetic models. A study area was selected in the Northeastern Black Sea Region of Turkey where landslides are the most effective natural hazard. Movements were determined with static, kinematic and dynamic geodetic models using geodetic, geologic and geophysical measurements made in the study area. Groundwater levels changes were regarded as causative forces in the formulation of the dynamic model. The dynamic model delivered more detailed information (direction, values, velocity, acceleration of movements) about landslide movements. It is possible to formulate more realistic strategies about prevention of landslides by using this information. As a result, it can be suggested that dynamic geodetic models are more useful in landslide studies.  相似文献   

8.
Mailuu-Suu is a former uranium mining area in Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia) at the northern border of the Fergana Basin. This region is particularly prone to landslide hazards and, during the last 50 years, has experienced severe landslide disasters in the vicinity of numerous nuclear waste tailing dams. Due to its critical situation, the Mailuu-Suu region was and still is the target area for several risk assessment projects. This paper provides a brief review of previous studies, past landslide events and a discussion on possible future risk scenarios. Various aspects of landslide hazard and related impacts in the Mailuu-Suu Valley are analyzed in detail: landslide susceptibility, historical evolution of landslide activity, size-frequency relationship, river damming and flooding as well as impacts on inhabited areas and nuclear waste storage zones. The study was carried out with standard remote sensing tools for the processing of satellite imagery and the construction of digital elevation models (DEMs). The processed inputs were combined on a GIS platform with digital landslide distribution maps of 1962, 1977, and 2003, digitized geological and geographic maps, and information from landslide monitoring and geophysical investigation.As a result, various types of landslide susceptibility maps based on conditional analysis (CA) are presented as well as predictions of future landslide activity and related damming potential and their possible impact on the population. For some risk scenarios, remediation and prevention measures are suggested.  相似文献   

9.
Mass movements of different thicknesses and types affect the slope where the Greci and Piscopie villages lie (Lago, Calabria, Italy). The study concerns a moderately urbanized area where the lithological, structural, and hydrogeological conditions have produced a large and complex unstable area. In the study area, a multi-temporal field survey has allowed for detailed landslide inventory mapping and definition of the geometric and kinematic characteristics of mass movements with long-term monitoring. In particular, an integrated monitoring network was progressively put in place, since 1996 to measure superficial and deep displacements (GPS stations and inclinometers). The network dataset shows that the mass movements in the study area are characterized by an extremely slow or very slow rate of displacement. The elements acquired by a long-term monitoring of the deep displacements point out that the landslide bodies are prone to develop new failure surfaces progressively shallower, with a consequent increase of the hazard. Moreover, medium-deep and deep-seated landslides may rapidly accelerate in relation to rainfall conditions and significantly affect structures and infrastructures. The integration of the geological and geomorphological knowledges with the monitoring data allows for distinguishing six different homogeneous sectors on the slope, as well as the relative geometric and kinematic characteristics, and the type of mass movements. In the study area, which is representative of several aspects of other areas, the method proposed and the knowledge acquired by long-term monitoring could be useful to define mass movement mechanisms, geotechnical models, and risk mitigation strategies.  相似文献   

10.
滑坡监测点多信息相似性度量方法研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
刘勇  胡宝丹  陈喆 《岩土力学》2019,40(10):4001-4010
滑坡监测点在一段时间内对外界影响因素的响应可以看作滑坡在当前时刻的状态。滑坡监测点在相似的状态下受到相似的外界激励时会表现出相似的响应。据此,可以对相似的状态进行类比,从而将相似状态运用于滑坡的稳定性分析、数据修正和预测预报等。提出一种基于多信息的状态单元矩阵的相似性度量方法,运用该方法同时对滑坡的外界影响因素和运动状态进行相似性匹配,既保证了外界影响因素的相似性,也保证了滑坡当前运动状态的相似性。为验证该方法的有效性,运用三峡库区4个滑坡34个监测点的1 770个状态作为状态单元集,对白水河滑坡2015年1月至2016年6月的位移数据进行预测。预测结果显示,该方法优于现有的BP神经网络、支持向量回归等经典预测方法。  相似文献   

11.
A sufficient knowledge on the kinematics and development of landslides helps to adopt proper measures that can be used to protect slopes and the environment in general. This can be achieved by adequate monitoring programs. This paper presents the findings of intensive monitoring activities carried out on Shiidomari and Katanoo landslides found in Sado Island of Japan. More than one year of observation of the two landslides allowed defining some peculiar futures of their kinematics and style of development. The problem of slope instability in the two areas is generally accredited to various factors. But, both landslides were triggered by heavy rainfalls and snowmelt. Because of the outline of the area and the presence of relict topographic features, the Shiidomari landslide is considered to be a large-scale reactivation of old slope failures. The Katanoo landslide is, however, a first-time case. Geophysical investigations and drilling activities in Shiidomari indicated the presence of two slip planes. The deepest (80–100 m) of these is controlled by existing lineaments. Monitoring data suggests that the body of the landslide has subsided as much as 1.16 m just below the main scarp, but a centimeter in the central region. The toe sector also experienced a significant amount of subsidence, but this was counter-balanced by an uplift on the opposite side of the landslide. Hence, the landslide seems not any more active along the deepest slip surface, although it may extend upward and define a series of shallow shear planes around the crown. In the case of Katanoo, the landform characteristics, differential weathering, the road cut and groundwater fluctuations appeared to contribute much to determine the exact location of the landslide. Extensional cracks that preceded the landslide can be related to heavy rainfalls and the cold and warm cycles thereafter. Subsurface investigations and monitoring works indicated that the landslide has two slide blocks with different slip planes. During the observation period, the upper part of the landslide responded more effectively to rainfall and snowmelt than the middle and lower sections. The corresponding movements, however, appeared to settle about three months after failure. There were also little strain transmissions in boreholes and no significant change in the characteristics of the landslide. The kinematics of deformation of many of the slopes in Sado Island resembles that of Shiidomari landslide. But mass movements along highways and mountain roads are usually similar to Katanoo. Landslides of the type like Shiidomari may not show sudden and drastic failures, but are usually long lasting and can reactivate repeatedly along new, shallow shear planes. Monitoring works and long-term supervisions in these types of landslides are useful to identify impending failures and take the right measures before they brought about large-scale destruction to the environment.  相似文献   

12.
Differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (D-InSAR) has become a useful technique for monitoring ground movement. The technique enables the analysis of very small ground movements in continuous, large areas and has the advantages of high accuracy, high resolution, all-weather adaptability, low cost, and inaccessible area coverage. Thus, D-InSAR has been widely used in the investigation of geologic hazards, such as subsidence, landslide, earthquake, and volcanic activity. In this paper, D-InSAR is used to locate and monitor landslide movement in the wide area of Wudongde Hydropower Reservoir in Jinsha River, China. Five SAR acquisitions are obtained by using the phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar sensor of the Advanced Land Observing Satellite. Detailed moving displacement maps in two time periods are derived by using the D-InSAR technique, and potentially moving landslide areas, as well as landslide hazard areas, are then located. The L1R-6 landslide, which is in active state, is investigated in detail. The deforming tendency obtained via D-InSAR is consistent with that obtained via global positioning system (GPS) monitoring. Error analysis of the D-InSAR results is also conducted. Finally, the grid function interpolation method of error reduction, which combines D-InSAR and GPS, is proposed to reduce the single-point error in D-InSAR monitoring and is further verified by the considerable improvement in the accuracy of L1R-6 landslide monitoring.  相似文献   

13.
Global Positioning System (GPS) technologies have been frequently applied for the purpose of landslide monitoring. A local stable reference frame is essential for precisely interpreting landslide movements derived from GPS observations. In this study, we define a stable reference frame using over 5 years of continuous GPS data collected from eight permanent GPS stations in the Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands (PRVI) region. The realization of the Stable Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands Reference Frame (SPRVIRF) is defined in terms of a 14-parameter Helmert transformation from the International Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Service Reference Frame of 2008 (IGS08). SPRVIRF is aligned with the IGS08 at epoch 2013.0. The GIPSY/OASIS (V6.2) software package, which employs the precise point positioning (PPP) with single receiver phase ambiguity resolution, was used to calculate position coordinates within IGS08. Through the combined use of the PPP post-processing method and SPRVIRF, it is practical and easy to conduct millimeter accuracy landslide monitoring by a single technician with a single GPS unit. SPRVIRF provides a precise common reference frame in the PRVI region that can be used for a broad range of research applications, such as delineating long-term landslide creeping, studying ground deformation associated with subsidence, fault creep, hydrologic loading and microplate motions, and monitoring long-term deformation of critical structures, such as dams, high-rise buildings, and long-span bridges.  相似文献   

14.
The site investigation of low-gradient slopes composed by marly rocks usually focuses on shallow slides in weathered mantling material as it is assumed that the underlying bedrock has higher strength, but deeper investigations may reveal larger, active, deep-seated movements. A typical example of this is found in Montemartano (Perugia, Central Italy). Here aerial photo interpretation and field observations indicate that active movements involve the shallower portion of the slope, formed by a very old and large landslide body extending over an area of about 0.5 km2. Borehole core logging and probe inclinometer monitoring reveal that the area corresponding to the deep-seated landslide is moving at a maximum rate of 70 mm/year down to a maximum depth of 40 m. A comparison of inclinometer and piezometer data indicates that the movement seasonally reactivates even when rainfall and piezometer levels are below average values and suggests that structural setting of the whole slope influences both groundwater flow and movement kinematics. This hypothesis is reinforced by seepage analyses and stability analyses yielding a mobilized shear strength close to residual strength of the clayey interbeds of the marly limestone formations. This implies that instability occurs along bedding over a large part of the slide. The importance of these phenomena in land management policy is discussed and the critical aspects of their investigation and monitoring are addressed. The reconstruction of landslide geometry/stratigraphy and geotechnical characterization of the materials is closely considered, particularly as these are complicated by the limited representativeness of field and laboratory investigations in this type of material.  相似文献   

15.
On 15 February 2010, a landslide of great dimensions occurred at Maierato (Calabria, Southern Italy) after a long rainy period. Although the zone was continuously affected by ground movements especially during the wet seasons, no monitoring system was installed before the occurrence of the landslide. However, many photos and two videos were taken during the failure process of the slope. In the present study, the available images are used to reconstruct the kinematics of the landslide. In addition, a finite element analysis is performed to define the main factors of triggering and to interpret the failure mechanism of the slope. This analysis is also based on the data from a site investigation carried out after the landslide to characterise the involved soils from a geotechnical viewpoint. The analysis also accounts for the strain-softening behaviour of some soils. The results have shown that the Maierato landslide was the reactivation of a pre-existing landslide body, which was caused by a significant increase in groundwater level.  相似文献   

16.
It is possible to monitor slow-moving landslides and assess landslide stabilisation measures over protracted periods using an optical–mechanical crack gauge called a TM-71. This technical note outlines the theoretical background to the gauge and illustrates its practical application through a number of case studies. These studies are drawn from a range of landslide types and stabilisation measures. In terms of monitoring slow-moving landslides, three studies of deep-seated deformations are presented. The Taukliman coastal landslide on the Black Sea Coast is characterised by vertical and horizontal displacements of up to 0.2?mm?year?1 and sudden earthquake-induced dilations of up to 6?mm. The Parohy ridge spreading landslide in the Malá Fatra Mountains is characterised by gravitationally induced vertical displacements of 0.7?mm?year?1. The slope deformation that formed Cyrilka Cave in the Beskydy Mountains is characterised by very slow sinistral strike–slip movements of 0.8?mm?year?1. In terms of assessing landslide stabilisation measures, two studies are presented from Orava Castle in Slovakia and Tetín in the Czech Republic. The data recorded at these sites demonstrate that the constructed stabilisation measures have successfully alleviated the potential landslide hazard in both localities. These case studies clearly demonstrate that the gauge represents an important tool with which to monitor slow-moving landslides and assess landslide stabilisation measures. It is able to provide a precise three-dimensional record of deformation, withstand harsh environmental conditions, and record reliable data over protracted periods.  相似文献   

17.
GPS在三峡水库区云阳县滑坡监测中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
文章概述了在库区云阳段建立GPS滑坡监测网的观测实践,以黄泥巴蹬坎滑体为例,介绍了GPS相对定位技术在云阳县滑坡的应用现状和进展。在采用GPS监测、深部位移监测、宏观地质巡视的同时,还监测降雨量、地下水位、库水位及不合理的人类工程活动。通过多种监测方法分析,发现在雨季滑坡容易产生变形,非雨季变形缓慢。目前,雨季日变率均小于5mm,而在非雨季平均日变率小于1mm。认为该边坡处于缓慢变形阶段(警惕线)。此外,在巡视过程中,也发现了多条宽1~5mm、长度不等的裂缝和高度不等的局部错台。根据近2年所获得的观测成果分析,深部位移监测、GPS监测和宏观巡视的结果十分吻合,效果令人满意。文章还总结了在滑坡监测中消除GPS测量主要误差的对策。满足方便快捷的同时,在不同时段采集GPS监测数据,适当延长监测时段,每个监测点至少观测2h的要求。多方收集信息,尽量避开潮汐、太阳黑子等活动的时段进行GPS监测。  相似文献   

18.
Mountainous areas in Nepal are prone to landslides, resulting in an enormous loss of life and property every year. As a first step towards mitigating or controlling such problems, it is necessary to prepare landslide susceptibility maps. Various methodologies have been proposed for landslide susceptibility mapping. This study applies the weight of evidence method to the Tinau watershed in west Nepal. A landslide susceptibility map is prepared on the basis of field observations and available data of geology, land use, topography and hydrology. Predicted susceptibility levels are found to be in good agreement with the locations of past landslides. The results show that about 30?% of the area is highly susceptible to landsliding. The present results provide useful information to the authorities concerning the landslide susceptibility zones and possible improvements for disaster management activities and sustainable development.  相似文献   

19.
三峡库区滑坡监测中的新技术和新方法   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  
三峡库区地质环境脆弱,是我国滑坡灾害的多发地区,因此,有效开展滑坡监测已经成为三峡库区地质灾害防治的一项重要任务.目前,三峡库区的滑坡监测系统已初步得到建立,大量新技术和新方法的应用成果,为及时准确掌握三峡库区滑坡的变形状况、预测预报滑坡的发生提供了科学依据.文中着重介绍了GPS大地形变测量、自动伸缩计地表位移测量、合成孔径雷达干涉测量、TDR滑坡体深部变形测量和自动远程遥控监测等新技术和新方法的应用情况,并对各自的优缺点进行了分析和比较.指出在三峡库区滑坡监测中,应该根据滑坡自身特点、监测目的和仪器的特性,合理选择监测方法.  相似文献   

20.
三峡库区巴东红石包滑坡稳定性动态分析   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  
李英  晏鄂川  李作成 《岩土力学》2008,29(Z1):412-416
巴东红石包滑坡位于巴东油库场地区,是三峡库区启动的重要地质灾害治理工程项目之一。通过对红石包滑坡内部水平位移和渗透水压力长期监测分析,表明其中的Ⅰ和Ⅱ号滑坡浅层存在缓慢变形,与降雨关系密切;其深层未见变形。说明红石包滑坡体在从2003年6月三峡水库蓄水至今仍处于稳定状态。但后续库水位的的不断抬高以及不同季节库水位频繁变化对滑坡的稳定性极为不利。为确保油库安全,仍应加强监测,密切注视滑坡动态。  相似文献   

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