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1.
To clarify the link between existing infrastructure legacy and the 2°C target, we extend the work of Davis et al. (Science 329:1330–1333, 2010) by introducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases and the inertia in transportation-needs drivers. We conclude that climate policies able to maintain climate change below 2°C cannot disregard existing infrastructure. 相似文献
2.
A comprehensive study on the chemistry of deposition and the concentration of tropospheric ozone and particulate sulfate in the ocean atmosphere was carried out for the data sets in 1990’s. It is important to study the atmospheric situation over the past years as well as the latest, especially in the East Asian region where emission amount of anthropogenic air pollutants have increased year by year due to rapid economic growth. The survey was conducted for 5 years in East Asia and West Oceania (35°N–35°S, 100–135°E) in August and September in 1990’s. The purpose of the survey was to study and understand the chemistry of deposition and the concentration of tropospheric ozone and particulate sulfate in the ocean atmosphere comprehensively in one project. Rainfall over the ocean was insufficiently neutralized. Gas and aerosol over the ocean were mature, i.e., well-mixed, during the period of the transportation. The characteristic latitudinal dependence was observed in the tropospheric ozone concentration, namely, higher in the southern hemisphere and lower in the northern hemisphere (approximately 25 ppb in the 10–40°S region and 5–15 ppb in the 20–40°N region). On the other hand, high concentrations of tropospheric ozone of over 30 ppb were observed in the northern hemisphere, which was attributable to the long-range transportation. The TSP concentration was approximately under the level of 40 μg m?3 irrespectively of the latitude; in contrast, the nss-SO4 2- concentration showed a clear latitudinal dependence, i.e., higher in the northern hemisphere and lower in the southern hemisphere. The background levels of the nss-SO4 2- concentration were approximately 0.5 μg m?3 in the 10–40°S region and 2–3 μg m?3 and 4–5 μg m?3 in the 0–20°N and 20–40°N regions, respectively. 相似文献
3.
Using a filter radiometer, the meridional profile of the NO2 photolysis frequency, J(NO2), was measured between 50° N and 30° S during the cruise ANTVII/1 September/October 1988 of the research vessel Polarstern on the Atlantic Ocean. Simultaneously, global broadband irradiance and acrosol were monitored. Clean marine background air with low aerosol loads (b
sp=(1–2)×10-5 m-1) was encountered at the latitudes 25° N–30° N and 18° S–27° S, respectively. Under these conditions and an almost cloudless sky J(NO2) reached 7.3×10-3 s-1 (2 sr) for a zenith angle of 30°. Between 30° N and 30° S, the latitudinal variation of the J(NO2) noontime maxima was less than ± 10%, while the mean value at noon was 7.8×10-3 s-1. For the set of all data between 50° N and 30° S, a nearly linear correlation of J(NO2) vs. global broadland irradiance was found. The slope of (8.24±0.03)×10-5 s-1/mW cm-2 agrees within 10% with observations in Jülich (51° N, 6.2° E). 相似文献
4.
As "the third pole", the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is sensitive to climate forcing and has experienced rapid warming in recent decades. This study analyzes annual and seasonal near-surface air temperature changes on the TP in response to transient and stabilized 2.0°C/1.5°C global warming targets based on simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) with faster warming at higher elevations is predicted. A surface energy budget analysis is adopted to uncover the mechanisms responsible for the temperature changes. Our results indicate a clear amplified warming on the TP with positive EDW in 2.0°C/1.5°C warmer futures, especially in the cold season. Mean TP warming relative to the reference period (1961–90) is dominated by an enhanced downward longwave radiation flux, while the variations in surface albedo shape the detailed pattern of EDW. For the same global warming level, the temperature changes under transient scenarios are ~0.2°C higher than those under stabilized scenarios, and the characteristics of EDW are broadly similar for both scenarios. These differences can be primarily attributed to the combined effects of differential downward longwave radiation, cloud radiative forcing, and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These findings contribute to a more detailed understanding of regional climate on the TP in response to the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement and highlight the differences between transient and stabilized warming scenarios. 相似文献
5.
Niklas Höhne Christopher Taylor Ramzi Elias Michel Den Elzen Keywan Riahi Claudine Chen 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):356-377
This article provides further detail on expected global GHG emission levels in 2020, based on the Emissions Gap Report (United Nations Environment Programme, December 2010), assuming the emission reduction proposals in the Copenhagen Accord and Cancun Agreements are met. Large differences are found in the results of individual groups owing to uncertainties in current and projected emission estimates and in the interpretation of the reduction proposals. Regardless of these uncertainties, the pledges for 2020 are expected to deliver emission levels above those that are consistent with a 2°C limit. This emissions gap could be narrowed through implementing the more stringent conditional pledges, minimizing the use of ‘lenient’ credits from forests and surplus emission units, avoiding double-counting of offsets and implementing measures beyond current pledges. Conversely, emission reduction gains from countries moving from their low to high ambition pledges could be more than offset by the use of ‘lenient’ land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) credits and surplus emissions units, if these were used to the maximum. Laying the groundwork for faster emission reduction rates after 2020 appears to be crucial in any case. 相似文献
6.
Projected changes in summer water vapor transport over East Asia under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming targets 
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下载免费PDF全文 水汽输送的变化对于降水的变化有重要贡献。基于优选的13个CIV1IP5模式发现:RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下,1.5°C和2.0°C增暖时东亚夏季水汽输送均加强,且2.0°C增暖时模式间一致性更好;水汽含量的增加对东亚南部和北部水汽输送的加强均有贡献,东亚南部水汽输送的加强也与低层环流的加强相联系。0.5°C额外增暖(1.5°C和2.0°C增暖间比较)时,两种排放情景下水汽输送的变化在我国南海与东北地区存在差异,使得两个地区降水变化存在差异;水汽输送的变化与低层环流的变化关系密切,且模式间一致性相对低。 相似文献
7.
The observed meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and meridional heat transport (MHT) estimated from the Rapid Climate Change/Meridional Circulation and Heat Flux Array (RAPID/MOCHA) at 26.5°N are used to evaluate the volume and heat transport in the eddy-resolving model LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model (LICOM). The authors find that the Florida Current transport and upper mid-ocean transport of the model are underestimated against the observations. The simulated variability of MOC and MHT show a high correlation with the observations, exceeding 0.6. Both the simu-lated and observed MOC and MHT show a significant seasonal variability. According to the power spectrum analysis, LICOM can represent the mesoscale eddy characteristic of the MOC similar to the observation. The model shows a high correlation of 0.58 for the internal upper mid-ocean transport (MO) and a density difference between the western and eastern boundaries, as noted in previous studies. 相似文献
8.
COSMO-CLM (CCLM) climate simulations over CORDEX-Africa domain: analysis of the ERA-Interim driven simulations at 0.44° and 0.22° resolution 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Hans-Jürgen Panitz Alessandro Dosio Matthias Büchner Daniel Lüthi Klaus Keuler 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(11-12):3015-3038
We present the results of the application of the COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (CCLM) over the CORDEX-Africa domain. Two simulations were performed driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989–2008): the first one with the standard CORDEX spatial resolution (0.44°), and the second one with an unprecedented high resolution (0.22°). Low-level circulation and its vertical structure, the geographical and temporal evolution of temperature and precipitation are critically evaluated, together with the radiation budget and surface energy fluxes. CCLM is generally able to reproduce the overall features of the African climate, although some deficiencies are evident. Flow circulation is generally well simulated, but an excessive pressure gradient is present between the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahara, related to a marked warm bias over the Sahara and a cold bias over southern Sahel. CCLM underestimates the rainfall peak in the regions affected by the passage of the monsoon. This dry bias may be a consequence of two factors, the misplacement of the monsoon centre and the underestimation of its intensity. The former is related to the northern shift of the West African Heat Low. On the other hand, the underestimation of precipitation intensity may be related to the underestimation of the surface short-wave radiation and latent heat flux. The increase of the model resolution does not bring evident improvements to the results for monthly means statistics. As a result, it appears that 0.44° is a suitable compromise between model performances and computational constrains. 相似文献
10.
ZHANG Ying 《大气和海洋科学快报》2012,5(6):514-520
The outputs of 17 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed to investigate the temporal and spatial features of 2.0°C warming of the surface temperature over the globe and China under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario. The simulations of the period 1860-1899 in the "historical" experiment are chosen as the baseline. The simulations for the 21st century in the RCP4.5 experiment are chosen as the future project. The multi-model ensemble mean (MME) shows that the global mean temperature would cross the 2.0°C warming threshold in 2047. Warming in most of the models would cross the threshold during 2030-2060. For local warming, high-latitude areas in the Northern Hemisphere show the fastest warming over the globe. Land areas warm substantially faster than the oceans. Most of the southern oceans would not exceed the 2.0°C warming threshold within the 21st century. Over China, surface warming is substantially faster than the global mean. The area-averaged warming would cross the 2.0°C threshold in 2034. Locally, Northwest China shows the fastest warming trend, followed by Central North China and Northeast China. Central China, East China, and South China are the last to cross the 2.0°C warming threshold. The diversity of the models is also estimated in this study. Generally, the spread among the models increases with time, and there is smaller spread among the models for the areas with the faster warming. 相似文献
11.
E. Kuhlbrodt 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1954,7(1):170-187
Zusammenfassung Für die inneren Tropen läßt sich die Kenntnis der Höhenströmungen nur durch direkte Beobachtungen gewinnen. Für den Golf von Guinea liegen Messungen innerhalb der Breite 5° N bis 9° S von drei Profilen der Meteor-Expedition und von zwei Studienfahrten der Deutschen Seewarte vor. Eine Voruntersuchung der mittleren Windwerte für die einzelnen benachbarten 5°-Felder einer Breitenzone (gleicher Jahreszeit) ergibt weigehende Übereinstimmung. Deshalb wird die zusammengefaßte Länge 10° W bis 5° E (für jede Breitenzone) der statistischen Bearbeitung zugrunde gelegt. Ziel der Untersuchung ist, die sich bei der Höhenwind-Statistik deutlich heraushebenden, charakteristischen Hauptströmungen zu beiden Seiten des Äquators und im jahreszeitlichen Unterschied zu erkennen und zahlenmäßig zu diskutieren. Nach einer Darstellung der Schichtung der mittleren Komponenten für 0 bis 19 km Höhe werden die einzelnen Strömungssysteme an Hand von Tabellen und Abbildungen näher beschrieben. Untere Troposphäre: Monsun, Antimonsun; Passat. Mittlere Troposphäre: Ostströmung (Urpassat). Hohe Troposphäre: Hohe Westströmung (Anti-Urpassat). Tropopausen-Schicht: Übergang von W in hohen Ost (Oberpassat). Hierbei wird für Test-Höhen die Streuung der beobachteten Einzelwinde besprochen. Größte gemessene Einzelgeschwindigkeit nahe dem Äquator: in der E-Strömung: SE 20 m/s (9 bis 10 km), in der hohen W-Strömung: SW 21 m/s (15 bis 16 km, nördlich vom Äquator), NW 21 m/s (13 bis 14 km, südlich vom Äquator). Die Rolle des Äquators bei den Höhenströmungen (meridionale Komponente) wird zusammenfassend betrachtet.
Mit 5 Textabbildungen. 相似文献
Summary Knowledge on the currents of the upper atmosphere in the inner tropics can be obtained only by direct observations. In the Gulf of Guinea, between the latitudes 5° N and 9° S, three profiles were determined by the Meteor expedition and measurements carried out by two expeditions of the Deutsche Seewarte. A preliminary test of the average wind values gives good agreement for all adjoining 5°-fields of a zone of latitude (during the same season). Therefore, the longitude 10° W-5° E as a whole (for every zone of latitude) could be applied to statistical evaluation. Purpose of this investigation is to establish and discuss quantitatively the characteristic mean currents on both sides of the equator such as result from the wind statistics of the upper atmosphere in their seasonal variations. The distribution of the mean components is given for 0–19 km altitude; the different systems of currents are described in detail by tables and illustrations. Lower troposphere: monsoon, anti-monsoon; trade-wind. Medium troposphere: easterlies (Urpassat). High troposphere: high west-wind (Anti-Urpassat). Tropopause: transition from west to high east-wind (Oberpassat). For certain test heights the dispersion of the different observed winds is discussed. Measured maximum velocities near equator: in the eastern current: SE 20 m/s (9–10 km), in the western current: SW 21 m/s (15–16 km, north of equator), NW 21 m/s (13–14 km, south of equator). The rôle of the equator in connection with high currents (meridional component) is discussed comprehensively.
Résumé On ne peut connaître l'allure de la circulation dans la haute atmosphère de la zone tropicale que par des observations directes. Dans le Golfe de Guinée on dispose de trois profils obtenus entre 5° N et 9° S par l'expédition du «Meteor» et de deux croisières d'étude de la Deutsche Seewarte. Une étude préalable des valeurs moyennes de vent relatives aux diverses surfaces de 5° d'une zone (mêmes saisons) aboutit à des résultats très concordants; aussi a-t-on soumis à l'examen statistique chaque bande zonale de 5° allant de 10° W à 5° E de longitude. Le but de cette recherche est de mettre en évidence les principaux courants en altitude de part et d'autre de l'équateur et d'examiner leurs valeurs numériques dans leurs variations saisonnières. Après avoir représenté la stratification des composantes moyennes entre 0 et 19 km, on décrit les différents systèmes de courants à l'aide de tableaux et de croquis et qui sont les suivants. Troposphère inférieure: mousson et contre-mousson; alizés. Troposphère moyenne: courant d'Est (Urpassat). Troposphère supérieure: courant d'Ouest supérieur (Anti-Urpassat). Tropopause: transition du courant d'Ouest à celui d'Est (Oberpassat). A cet effet on discute la dispersion des vents observés pour des niveaux choisis. Vitesse maximum observée près de l'équateur: dans le courant d'Est SE 20 m/s (à 9–10 km), et dans le courant d'Ouest supérieur SW 21 m/s (à 15–16 km au Nord de l'équateur), NW 21 m/s (à 13–14 km au Sud de l'équateur). On considère en résumé le rôle de l'équateur dans les courants en altitude (composante méridienne).
Mit 5 Textabbildungen. 相似文献
12.
Abstract This article presents a set of multi-gas emission pathways for different CO2-equivalent concentration stabilization levels, i.e. 400, 450, 500 and 550 ppm CO2-equivalent, along with an analysis of their global and regional reduction implications and implied probability of achieving the EU climate target of 2°C. For achieving the 2°C target with a probability of more than 60%, greenhouse gas concentrations need to be stabilized at 450 ppm CO2-equivalent or below, if the 90% uncertainty range for climate sensitivity is believed to be 1.5–4.5°C. A stabilization at 450 ppm CO2-equivalent or below (400 ppm) requires global emissions to peak around 2015, followed by substantial overall reductions of as much as 25% (45% for 400 ppm) compared to 1990 levels in 2050. In 2020, Annex I emissions need to be approximately 15% (30%) below 1990 levels, and non-Annex I emissions also need to be reduced by 15–20% compared to their baseline emissions. A further delay in peaking of global emissions by 10 years doubles maximum reduction rates to about 5% per year, and very probably leads to high costs. In order to keep the option open of stabilizing at 400 and 450 ppm CO2-equivalent, the USA and major advanced non-Annex I countries will have to participate in the reductions within the next 10–15 years. 相似文献
13.
On the basis of the analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration variations and the annual mean air temperature at Syowa Station, Antarctica in the period of 1984-1988, the following results are easily obtained:(1) The annual mean values of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are gradually increased and equal to 342.59, 343.80, 345.15, 346.83 and 348.82 ppmv for 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987 and 1988, respectively. Its annual increase rates are 1.21, 1.35, 1.68 and 1.99 ppmv/yr. For 1984-1985, 1985-1986, 1986-1987 and 1987-1988, respectively and are raised year by year.The seasonal variations are observed and the maximum concentration is in spring and the minimum one is in late-summer or early-autumn.(2)The increasing tendency of the concentration of the atmospheric carbon dioxide is consistent with that of the a.ir temperature. 相似文献
14.
G. S. GOLITSYN 《大气科学进展》2009,26(3):585-598
The goal of this paper is to quantitatively formulate some necessary conditions for the
development of intense atmospheric vortices. Specifically, these criteria are discussed for tropical
cyclones (TC) and polar lows (PL) by using bulk formulas for fluxes of momentum, sensible heating,
and latent heating between the ocean and the atmosphere. The velocity scale is used in two forms: (1)
as expressed through the buoyancy flux b and the Coriolis parameter lc for rotating fluids convection,
and (2) as expressed with the cube of velocity times the drag coefficient through the formula for
total kinetic energy dissipation in the atmospheric boundary layer. In the quasistationary case the
dissipation equals the generation of the energy. In both cases the velocity scale can be expressed
through temperature and humidity differences between the ocean and the atmosphere in terms of the
reduced gravity, and both forms produce quite comparable velocity scales. Using parameters b and lc,
we can form scales of the area and, by adding the mass of a unit air column, a scale of the total
kinetic energy as well. These scales nicely explain the much smaller size of a PL, as compared to
a TC, and the total kinetic energy of a TC is of the order 1018-1019 J. It will be shown
that wind of 33 m s-1 is produced when the total enthalpy fluxes between the ocean and the
atmosphere are about 700 W m-2 for a TC and 1700 W m-2 for a PL, in association with
the much larger role of the latent heat in the first case and the stricter geostrophic constraints
and larger static stability in the second case. This replaces the mystical role of 26oC as
a criterion for TC origin.
The buoyancy flux, a product of the reduced gravity and the wind speed, together with the atmospheric
static stability, determines the rate of the penetrating convection. It is known from the observations
that the formation time for a PL reaching an altitude of 5--6 km can be only a few hours, and a day, or
even half a day, for a TC reaching 15--18 km. These two facts allow us to construct curves on the plane
of Ts and ΔT=Ts-Ta to determine possibilities for forming an intense vortex. Here, Ta is the atmospheric temperature at the height z=10 m. A PL should have ΔT>20oC in accordance
with the observations and numerical simulations. The conditions for a TC are not so straightforward but
our diagram shows that the temperature difference of a few degrees, or possibly even a fraction of a
degree, might be sufficient for TC development for a range of static stabilities and development times. 相似文献
15.
G. S. GOLITSYN 《大气科学进展》2009,26(3)
The goal of this paper is to quantitatively formulate some necessary conditions for the development of intense atmospheric vortices. Specifically, these criteria are discussed for tropical cyclones (TC) and polar lows (PL) by using bulk formulas for fluxes of momentum, sensible heating, and latent heating between the ocean and the atmosphere. The velocity scale is used in two forms: (1) as expressed through the buoyancy flux b and the Coriolis parameter lc for rotating fluids convection, and (2) as expressed with the cube of velocity times the drag coefficient through the formula for total kinetic energy dissipation in the atmospheric boundary layer. In the quasistationary case the dissipation equals the generation of the energy. In both cases the velocity scale can be expressed through temperature and humidity differences between the ocean and the atmosphere in terms of the reduced gravity, and both forms produce quite comparable velocity scales. Using parameters b and lc., we can form scales of the area and, by adding the mass of a unit air column, a scale of the total kinetic energy as well. These scales nicely explain the much smaller size of a PL, as compared to a TC, and the total kinetic energy of a TC is of the order 1018 - 1019 J. It will be shown that wind of 33 m s-1 is produced when the total enthalpy fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere are about 700 W m-2 for a TC and 1700 W m-2 for a PL, in association with the much larger role of the latent heat in the first case and the stricter geostrophic constraints and larger static stability in the second case. This replaces the mystical role of 26~C as a criterion for TC origin. The buoyancy flux, a product of the reduced gravity and the wind speed, together with the atmospheric static stability, determines the rate of the penetrating convection. It is known from the observations that the formation time for a PL reaching an altitude of 5-6 km can be only a few hours, and a day, or even half a day, for a TC reaching 15-18 km. These two facts allow us to construct curves on the plane of Ts and △T= Ts - Ta to determine possibilities for forming an intense vortex. Here, Ta is the atmospheric temperature at the height z = 10 m. A PL should have △T > 20℃ in accordance with the observations and numerical simulations. The conditions for a TC are not so straightforward but our diagram shows that the temperature difference of a few degrees, or possibly even a fraction of a degree, might be sufficient for TC development for a range of static stabilities and development times. 相似文献
16.
使用日本静止气象卫星(GMS)观测的候平均云量资料,分析了1978年5月—1984年12月和1978年5月—1981年12月两个时期内,印度洋中部(90°E)至太平洋(170°W)热带地区云量的低频变化特征。主要结果如下: 1.考查地区的云量存在两类低频振荡:30—60天的季节内振荡和周期为2—4年的年际振荡(可称之为甚低频振荡)。 2.在非厄尼诺时期,30—60天的低频振荡较明显,可以一直东传到中太平洋;有厄尼诺影响时,它的东传过程将受到抑制,主要限于130°E从西地区。 3.130°E以西地区的2—4年振荡,主要与厄尼诺/南方涛动的信息有关;在非厄尼诺时期,这一类振荡消失。 相似文献
17.
Climate sensitivity is an important index that measures the relationship between the increase in greenhouse gases and the magnitude of global warming. Uncertainties in climate change projection and climate modeling are mostly related to the climate sensitivity. The climate sensitivities of coupled climate models determine the magnitudes of the projected global warming. In this paper, the authors thoroughly review the literature on climate sensitivity, and discuss issues related to climate feedback processes and the methods used in estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response (TCR), including the TCR to cumulative CO2 emissions. After presenting a summary of the sources that affect the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, the impact of climate sensitivity on climate change projection is discussed by addressing the uncertainties in 2°C warming. Challenges that call for further investigation in the research community, in particular the Chinese community, are discussed. 相似文献
18.
2期 热带气象资料室:156oE、180”E逐候总云量剖面资料 187 来11S6”Efff总云邑(1160.S一19BI.4) — —人188 热 带 气 象 二卷 4＄,—— 5016 5 5 T 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 48i 8 6 T 8 sl6 7 7 8 8 8 8 T 8 9 9 9 7 9 8 8 9 8 4617 7 7 6 2 2 7 8 6 8 8 7 相似文献
19.
广东省热带海洋气象研究所热带气候资料室 《热带气象学报》1985,(3):280-285
Pgr纬度在:1981年12月20至ZI日缺资料广东省热带沟洋气象研究所热带气候资料室156e巨、180”Effi候总云量剖面资料282 i热 带 气 象3卷 156“E逐候总云量坛\日 阶 01/106 11 16 21 26 31 05 10 15 ZQ 2502 07 12 1722 27 01/4 06 11 16 21 26 ”\31 1015 20 25 30 04/2 09 14 1 相似文献