共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 140 毫秒
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2005年前山西地震危险性预测 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
以一系列断裂盆地为主体的断裂盆地带是山西的地震构造带和未来地震的主要危险区，叙述地的新生性，第四纪活动度，盆地和剪切运动和拉张运动特征及盆地的现代地壳运动特征和现代地壳应力场特征，分析了盆地的特征，地震震级一频度模式，古地震复发间隔和地震活动周期，山西历史强震前的地震活动图像及盆地的各项特征和地震活动的关系，在此基础得到，２００５年山西基本上不具备发生Ｍ≥７地震的危险性，其发震概率在０．０５～０． 相似文献
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华北地区6.0级以上地震前非均匀度CV值异常变化特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过对非均匀度 CV值等时间、等地震个数时间扫描和空间的扫描 ,对 1970年以来华北地区8次 6 .0级以上地震前 CV值的异常变化进行了研究 ,认为在发震区域内强震前 CV值与地震有较好的对应关系 ,出现较为明显的上升过程后 ,在回落或回落过程中发震 ,表明地震活动的丛集性是强震发生的重要异常特征 相似文献
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对发震构造呈复杂几何关系(发震构造在平面投影呈非平行关系)下彼此发震影响的机理进行了研究.从发震的“垂震底继”影响关系研究了1933年迭溪地震M7.5和1976年松潘Ms7.2地震对后来发生汶川M8地震的龙门山地震构造的孕震能量叠加的加震作用;同时也指出汶川8级地震对周边断裂的减震作用,计算并指出了其影响减震的距离.研究对CPSHA中对发震构造呈复杂几何关系时,如何确定地震带内各潜在的震源空间分布函数fi,mj提供了大震加减震的判断理论依据.还讨论了汶川地震孕震模式的更复杂性,针对某些用巴颜喀拉块体向东南方向移动挤压龙门山孕震构造,进而解释汶川地震的逆冲性所带来的矛盾的观点,对其孕震的复杂性提出了问题所在和初步探讨. 相似文献
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A systematic search was made for seismicity rate changes in the segment of the Kurile island arc from 45°N to 53°N by studying the cumulative seismicity of shallow (h100 km) earthquakes within 11 overlapping volumes of radius 100 km for the time period 1960 through beginning of 1978. We found that in most parts of this island arc and most of the time the seismicity rate as obtained from the NOAA catalogue and not excluding any events is fairly constant except for increased seismicity in the mid 1960s in the southern portion due to the great 1963 mainshock there, and for seismicity quiescence during part of the time period studied within two well defined sections of the arc. The first of these is a volume of 100 km radius around a 1973 (M
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=7.3) mainshock within which the seismicity rate was demonstrated at the 99% confidence level to have been lower by 50% during 2100 days (5.75 years) before this mainshock. The second volume of seismic quiescence coincides with the 400 km long north Kuriles gap. In this gap the seismicity rate is shown (at the 99% confidence level) to be lower by 50% from 1967 to present (1978), in comparison with the rate within the gap befor 1967, as well as with the rate surrounding the gap. We propose that the anomalously low seismicity rate within the Kuriles gap is a precursor to a great earthquake, the occurrence time of which was estimated by the following preliminary relation between precursory quiescence time and source dimensionT=190L
0.545. We predict that an earthquake with source length of 200–400 km (M>8) will occur along the north Kurile island arc between latitude 45.5°N and 49.2°N at a time between now and 1994. 相似文献
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运用原始日测值曲线法及一阶差分法,对河北省怀来后郝窑地震台4号观测井逸出氦气含量观测数据进行分析,定量计算几次震例发震前异常,认为怀4井氦气浓度异常变化能够反映当地地震活动变化趋势,即该地区地震活动性高,则观测井氦气浓度测值升高;氦气异常一般出现在地震发生前15—30天。 相似文献
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根据图形对比、频度比及相关分析法，对1900年以来东南亚和中国大陆地震活动的关系进行了研究，结果表明，东南亚地区和中国大陆7级地震活动是相关的。东南亚地区7级地震活动对中国大陆地震活动的影响可迟后1，2年；根据2000年全球7级大震在东南亚地区出现相对集中的情况，可以预测中国大陆在2001或2002年发生7级以上地震的可能性很大。 相似文献
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青藏块体及其周边地震活动 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文从青藏块体及其周边地区地震活动幕的划分入手,分析各期地震活动的图象特征,寻求本区地震发生的时空规律,探讨本区的地震活动与印度板块运动的内在联系,从而对今后本区地震活动的大形势进行了预测。 相似文献
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The numerical block-model of the lithosphere dynamics is used to simulate seismicity in Italy and its surroundings, based
on the available structural and geodynamics information. The purpose of the study is to understand which are the tectonic
processes that control the main features of the observed seismicity and the kinematics of the region. The influence of the
rheology of the fault systems is studied as well. The model we use differs from other modeling approaches in that it simulates
earthquakes and hence it possibly relates to seismicity and geodynamics. The model provides an effective capability to include
the set of documented constraints supplied by widely available earthquake catalogs. This is done by means of the comparison
of the GR relation, of the focal mechanisms and of the space distribution for observed and computed seismicity. The region
is modeled as a system of perfectly rigid blocks, separated by infinitely thin fault planes, in viscoelastic interaction between
themselves and with the underlying medium. The movement of the boundary blocks and of the underlying medium determines the
motion of the blocks. The synthetic seismicity obtained with the defined block-model is similar to the observed one for the
most seismically active areas. A linear frequency-magnitude (FM) relation (Gutenberg-Richter law) is obtained for synthetic
earthquakes; the slope (b-value) of the FM plot appears larger for the synthetic seismicity than for the observed one. Nevertheless, the b-value is essentially larger in northern and central Italy than that in southern Italy, both in the model and in the observations.
The analysis of the source mechanisms of the synthetic earthquakes shows a good agreement with the observations. In the model
normal faulting is typical for the Apennines, the eastern edge of Sicily and the Calabrian arc, while reverse faulting takes
place at the northwestern boundary of the Adriatic Sea, in the southern Alps and along the eastern edge of the Adria, along
the Dinarides. The model correctly reproduces the extension zone along the Apennines and the contraction zone along the northwestern
boundary of the Adriatic Sea; the counter-clockwise rotation of the Adria is mimed. The resulting movements of the blocks
are in overall agreement with GPS (Global Positioning System) observations. The results of the modeling experiments suggest
that the main features of dynamics and seismicity in the central Mediterranean region cannot be satisfactorily explained as
a consequence of Africa and Eurasia convergence only; the passive subduction in the Calabrian arc and the different rheology
of faults are essential as well. 相似文献
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GUI-PING LIU 《地震学报(英文版)》1999,12(3):277-284
The time and spatial feature of the regional seismicity triggered by the Hyogo-Ken Nanbu, Japan, M=7.2 earthquake on January 17,1995, was studied. The concerned region is about several hundred kilometers in length and breadth surrounding the epicenter (33°～37°N, 133°～138°E). It is divided into 16 subregions. The seismicity of these subregions from January of 1976 to June of 1996 has been analyzed. It is showed that,① there were significant seismicity changes in 10 subregions triggered by the Hyogo-Ken Nanbu, Japan, M=7.2 earthquake on January 17, 1995. These changes passed a Z statistic test exceeding 0.95 confidence level and the greatest epicenter distance of these subregions was 280 km;②seismicity changes were triggered within 1～5 days in three subregions near the main shock while in other subregions the seismicity changes were triggered within several ten days after the main shock;③ the greatest triggered event is 5.4, which is about the same size as the greatest aftershock;④the regional stress change resulted from the main shock may be the triggered mechanism of the regional seismicity. 相似文献
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The best estimate method (BEM), which shifts an object event towards the centroid of the events within its location uncertainty, was originally proposed to clarify the pattern of seismicity distribution. It was later widely applied to constrain the location and geometry of seismogenic structures. The goal of this study is to improve the efficiency, robustness and effectiveness of the BEM. We perform a series of synthetic experiments by generating a three-dimensional (3D) event dataset representing complex tectonic features and perturbing the presumed hypocenter locations. The synthetic experiments show that appropriate expression for the location uncertainty of the object event and restrictive thresholds of the event selection can significantly improve the collapsing seismicity image. We also demonstrate that the performance of our revised BEM (RBEM) is better than that of the original BEM. We then apply our RBEM to the seismicity catalog for the Taiwan region, collapsing the diffusive catalog hypocenters into sharp images of seismicity. Our RBEM result delineates a clearer low-seismicity zone in central Taiwan and a wider separation between the Wadati–Benioff double seismic layers in northeastern Taiwan than the corresponding features in either the catalog seismicity or the 3D relocation seismicity. Because of the simplicity and efficiency of the RBEM, it is perfectly suited to delineate the location and geometry of active faults in routine operations. 相似文献
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四川二滩水电站围堰期间诱发地震的初步研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
二滩水电站位于四川雅砻江下游，是目前西南地区正建设的规模最大的水电枢纽工程。本文综合了区域地震地质、历史地震和库区水文地质条件，概述了该区域的孕震构造背景；使用二滩遥测地震台网自１９９１年７月正式运转以来积累的数字化记录资料，计算卫Ｐ波和Ｓ波的速度结构、地壳介质Ｑ、应力降；在此基础上，引用了数值性能极好的先进技术，对库区地震进行震源位置和深度的精确确定，由本文描画的地震空间分布立体图象，讨论了库区 相似文献