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1.
《Earth》2007,83(3-4):143-179
Calving of icebergs is an important component of mass loss from the polar ice sheets and glaciers in many parts of the world. Calving rates can increase dramatically in response to increases in velocity and/or retreat of the glacier margin, with important implications for sea level change. Despite their importance, calving and related dynamic processes are poorly represented in the current generation of ice sheet models. This is largely because understanding the ‘calving problem’ involves several other long-standing problems in glaciology, combined with the difficulties and dangers of field data collection. In this paper, we systematically review different aspects of the calving problem, and outline a new framework for representing calving processes in ice sheet models. We define a hierarchy of calving processes, to distinguish those that exert a fundamental control on the position of the ice margin from more localised processes responsible for individual calving events. The first-order control on calving is the strain rate arising from spatial variations in velocity (particularly sliding speed), which determines the location and depth of surface crevasses. Superimposed on this first-order process are second-order processes that can further erode the ice margin. These include: fracture propagation in response to local stress imbalances in the immediate vicinity of the glacier front; undercutting of the glacier terminus by melting at or below the waterline; and bending at the junction between grounded and buoyant parts of an ice tongue. Calving of projecting, submerged ‘ice feet’ can be regarded as a third-order process, because it is paced by first- or second-order calving above the waterline.First-order calving can be represented in glacier models using a calving criterion based on crevasse depth, which is a function of longitudinal strain rate. Modelling changes in terminus position and calving rates thus reduces to the problem of determining the ice geometry and velocity distribution. Realistic solutions to the problem of modelling ice flow therefore depend critically on an appropriate choice of sliding law. Models that assume that basal velocities are controlled by basal drag can replicate much of the observed behaviour of calving glaciers with grounded termini, but an important limitation is that they cannot be used to model floating glacier termini or ice shelves. Alternative sliding laws that parameterise drag from the glacier margins provide more flexible and robust ways of representing calving in ice sheet models. Such models can explain a remarkable range of observed phenomena within a simple, unifying framework, including: downglacier increases in velocity and strain rates where basal and/or lateral drag diminishes; flow acceleration in response to thinning through time; the tendency for glaciers to stabilise at ‘pinning points’ in relatively shallow water or fjord narrowings; the constraints on ice shelf stability; and the contrasts in calving rates between tidewater and freshwater calving glaciers. Many unresolved issues remain, however, including the role played by the removal of backstress in the acceleration of retreating calving glaciers, and the controls on melting at and below the waterline.  相似文献   

2.
This review summarizes forefield and lacustrine records of glacier fluctuations in Alaska during the Holocene. Following retreat from latest Pleistocene advances, valley glaciers with land-based termini were in retracted positions during the early to middle Holocene. Neoglaciation began in some areas by 4.0 ka and major advances were underway by 3.0 ka, with perhaps two distinct early Neoglacial expansions centered respectively on 3.3–2.9 and 2.2–2.0 ka. Tree-ring cross-dates of glacially killed trees at two termini in southern Alaska show a major advance in the AD 550s–720s. The subsequent Little Ice Age (LIA) expansion was underway in the AD 1180s–1320s and culminated with two advance phases respectively in the 1540s–1710s and in the 1810s–1880s. The LIA advance was the largest Holocene expansion in southern Alaska, although older late Holocene moraines are preserved on many forefields in northern and interior Alaska.Tidewater glaciers around the rim of the Gulf of Alaska have made major advances throughout the Holocene. Expansions were often asynchronous with neighboring termini and spanned both warm and cool intervals, suggesting that non-climatic factors were important in forcing these advances. However, climatic warming appears to have initiated most rapid iceberg-calving retreats. Large glaciers terminating on the forelands around the Gulf of Alaska may have had tidewater termini early in the Holocene, but have progressively become isolated from the adjacent ocean by the accumulation and subaerial exposure of their own sediments.  相似文献   

3.
Alpine glacier fluctuations provide important paleoclimate proxies where other records such as ice cores, tree rings, and speleothems are not available. About 20 years have passed since a special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews was published to review the worldwide evidence for Holocene glacier fluctuations. Since that time, numerous sites have been discovered, new dating techniques have been developed, and refined climatic hypotheses have been proposed that contribute to a better understanding of Earth's climate system. This special volume includes 12 papers on Holocene and latest Pleistocene alpine glacier fluctuations that update the seven review papers from 1988.Major findings of these 12 papers include the following: many, but certainly not all, alpine areas record glacier advances during the Younger Dryas cold interval. Most areas in the Northern Hemisphere witnessed maximum glacier recession during the early Holocene, with some glaciers disappearing, although a few sites yield possible evidence for advances during the 8.2 ka cooling event. In contrast, some alpine areas in the Southern Hemisphere saw glaciers reach their maximum post-glacial extents during the early to middle Holocene. In many parts of the globe, glaciers reformed and/or advanced during Neoglaciation, beginning as early as 6.5 ka. Neoglacial advances commonly occurred with millennial-scale oscillations, with many alpine glaciers reaching their maximum Holocene extents during the Little Ice Age of the last few centuries. Although the pattern and rhythm of these glacier fluctuations remain uncertain, improved spatial coverage coupled with tighter age control for many events will provide a means to assess forcing mechanisms for Holocene and latest Pleistocene glacial activity and perhaps predict glacier response to future impacts from human-induced climate change.  相似文献   

4.
Concerns over the rapid retreat rates of mountain glaciers have been rising as global temperatures have continued to increase. The extent of variation in the retreat of mountain glaciers can provide information about changes to different climatic conditions. Assessing the retreat rates of glaciers is crucial to assess the continuing existence of mountain glaciers and the ramifications of those retreats on water security for human societies. Therefore, mathematical and statistical models for the quantification of glacier dynamics in response to climate change are in high demand. In this research, we propose a multivariate regression model that estimates glacier change and predicts the location of glacier terminus over time, based on observed climate factors. The proposed method is applied to temporal sequences of ground observations for a number of glaciers around the globe. This model can potentially be used for monitoring glacier systems using climatic factors.  相似文献   

5.
ABSTRACT The local climatic regime and the mass balance state are important determinants of the dynamics of terrestrial and marine glacier fronts, which in turn determine the sediments and landforms produced at the glacier front. Many modern glaciers undergoing overall retreat in areas of'maritime'climate produce winter push moraines during a late winter readvance, followed by a summer retreat, whilst in more'continental'regions no significant winter readvance occurs and annual push-moraines are absent. The frontal dynamics which lead to these changes are analysed and the form, structure, sequence and field relations of both terrestrial and marine push-moraines are described from Iceland, Spitsbergen and Baffin Island.
Long-term changes in mass balance leading to major glacier advances or readvances also generate large push-moraines. In terrestrial environments push-moraine formation is accompanied by uplift, rejuvenation and down-cutting of outwash systems whose sediments become closely associated with glaciotectonic structures, which permit pre-, syn- and post-tectonic sequences to be identified.
The development of ice marginal fan/moraine complexes is modelled as a function of the relative magnitude of two parameters: the velocity of ice movement and the calving rate. A high ice velocity just exceeded by the calving rate gives closely spaced push-moraines and confluent ice marginal fans. A high velocity far exceeded by the calving rate produces closely spaced moraines but separate ice marginal fans. A low ice velocity in combination with a high calving rate results in well separated and feebly developed push-moraines, while a low ice velocity and a low calving rate produces feeble push-moraines and coalescent fans.  相似文献   

6.
Hamtah and Chhota Shigri are two nearby, well monitored glaciers of western Himalaya, lying in the same climatic zone and driven by the same climatic conditions. In this study, topographical characteristics of both the glacier have been explored to understand the role of topography in controlling the glacier response. Further, their topographical characteristics and possible response towards climatic variations have been compared with each other and also with that of the other glaciers in the basin to find out the suitability of these two glaciers to be considered as representative of the region. Multi sensor and multi temporal remote sensing data have been used to carry out to fulfill the objectives. It is found that being in the same climatic zone, the mean accumulation area ratio of Chhota Shigri is 54% and Hamtah is 11% between 1980 and 2014. In comparison to Hamtah, Chhota Shigri glacier has a small upslope area, low compactness ratio indicating the ability of the glacier to receive direct precipitation and solar radiation. The analysis revealed that the Chhota Shigri glacier has a closer resemblance with the other glaciers in the region than Hamtah glacier. Also, the topographical settings of Chhota Shigri glacier are suitable for recording and reflecting year-to-year climatic variations.  相似文献   

7.
Large and complete glaciotectonic sequences formed by marine‐terminating glaciers are rarely observed on land, hampering our understanding of the behaviour of such glaciers and the processes operating at their margins. During the Late Weichselian in western Iceland, an actively retreating marine‐terminating glacier resulted in the large‐scale deformation of a sequence of glaciomarine sediments. Due to isostatic rebound since the deglaciation, these formations are now exposed in the coastal cliffs of Belgsholt and Melabakkar‐Ásbakkar in the Melasveit district, and provide a detailed record of past glacier dynamics and the inter‐relationships between glaciotectonic and sedimentary processes at the margin of this marine‐terminating glacier. A comprehensive study of the sedimentology and glaciotectonic architecture of the coastal cliffs reveals a series of subaquatic moraines formed by a glacier advancing from Borgarfjörður to the north of the study area. Analyses of the style of deformation within each of the moraines demonstrate that they were primarily built up by ice‐marginal/proglacial thrusting and folding of marine sediments, as well as deposition and subsequent deformation of ice‐marginal subaquatic fans. The largest of the moraines exposed in the Melabakkar‐Ásbakkar section is over 1.5 km wide and 30 m high and indicates the maximum extent of the Borgarfjörður glacier. Generally, the other moraines in the series become progressively younger towards the north, each designating an advance or stillstand position as the glacier oscillated during its overall northward retreat. During this active retreat, glaciomarine sediments rapidly accumulated in front of the glacier providing material for new moraines. As the glacier finally receded from the area, the depressions between the moraines were infilled by continued glaciomarine sedimentation. This study highlights the dynamics of marine‐terminating glaciers and may have implications for the interpretation of their sedimentological and geomorphological records.  相似文献   

8.
Stagnation of the terminal region of a glacier occurs in response to sufficiently large and rapid climatic warming, so the presence of stagnation deposits provides quantitative information on the climate change that forced retreat. Here we use a simple flow-line glacier model to investigate the relationship between stagnation, climate forcing and aspects of the glacier bed. For climatic warming greater than the threshold to cause stagnation, larger or faster warming events cause longer regions of a glacier to stagnate. Smaller or slower warming episodes, below the threshold for stagnation, cause retreat while active flow persists along the entire glacier length. The threshold for stagnation depends not only on the climatic forcing but also on many other aspects of the glacier, with stagnation favored by factors including a lower mean bed slope with greater roughness. Quantitative determination of the climatic forcing consistent with the occurrence or absence of stagnation deposits requires that these site-specific characteristics be incorporated in modeling.  相似文献   

9.
Evidence for former fast glacier flow (ice streaming) in the southwest Laurentide Ice Sheet is identified on the basis of regional glacial geomorphology and sedimentology, highlighting the depositional processes associated with the margin of a terrestrial terminating ice stream. Preliminary mapping from a digital elevation model of Alberta identifies corridors of smoothed topography and corridor‐parallel streamlined landforms (megaflutes to mega‐lineations) that display high levels of spatial coherency. Ridges that lie transverse to the dominant streamlining patterns are interpreted as: (a) series of minor recessional push moraines; (b) thrust block moraines or composite ridges/hill–hole pairs constructed during readvances/surges; and (c) overridden moraines (cupola hills), apparently of thrust origin. Together these landforms demarcate the beds and margins of former fast ice flow trunks or ice streams that terminated as lobate forms. Localised cross‐cutting and/or misalignment of flow sets indicates temporal separation and the overprinting of ice streams/lobes. The fast‐flow tracks are separated by areas of interlobate or inter‐stream terrain in which moraines have been constructed at the margins of neighbouring (competing) ice streams/outlet glaciers; this inter‐stream terrain was covered by more sluggish, non‐streaming ice during full glacial conditions. Thin tills at the centres of the fast‐flow corridors, in many places unconformably overlying stratified sediments, suggest that widespread till deformation may have been subordinate to basal sliding in driving fast ice flow but the general thickening of tills towards the lobate terminal margins of ice streams/outlet glaciers is consistent with subglacial deformation theory. In this area of relatively low relief we speculate that fast glacier flow or streaming was highly dynamic and transitory, sometimes with fast‐flowing trunks topographically fixed in their onset zones and with the terminus migrating laterally. The occurrence of minor push moraines and flutings and associated landforms, because of their similarity to modern active temperate glacial landsystems, are interpreted as indicative of ice lobe marginal oscillations, possibly in response to seasonal climatic forcing, in locations where meltwater was more effectively drained from the glacier bed. Further north, the occurrence of surging glacier landsystems suggests that persistent fast glacier flow gave way to more transitory surging, possibly in response to the decreasing size of ice reservoir areas in dispersal centres and also locally facilitated by ice‐bed decoupling and drawdown initiated by the development of ice‐dammed lakes. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Topography as a fundamental element of glacial systems   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
The equilibrium line of glaciers as a climate-sensitive parameter is indispensable for the assessment of changes in climate through time. The methods previously developed for calculating the equilibrium line do not obtain, however, satisfactory accuracy. Using the statistical evaluation of data collected from 223 glaciers it is shown here that the inaccuracy of the prevailing methods results from the negligence of the specific glacier geometry.In calculating realistic ELAs glaciers must be understood as dynamic systems whose variables, climatic environment and topography, are linked through feedback. The accompanying transformation in this dynamic system, which is expressed by the difference between a mathematical index and the ELA, can be exactly determined with a regression line. The climatically induced change in glacier geometry is the controlling factor, i.e. operator. The behaviour of glacial systems in view of long-term climatic variations can first be understood when the details of the interdependency between topographical and climatic parameters are fully known, as will be demonstrated here.ELA = Equilibrium Line Altitude  相似文献   

11.
北半球冰川物质平衡变化的若干特征及其气候意义   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  
根据北半球连续观测的４０多条冰川物质平衡资料，分析了目前冰川物质平衡状态及影响它们的地形因互。冰川物质平衡的变化在区域间存在着一定的联系：斯堪的纳维亚、落基山和天山地 区冰川物质平衡的变化在大多数时间内存在着对应联 系，而与阿尔卑斯山冰川物质平衡的变化具有不同程度的反向波动特征。  相似文献   

12.
研究冰川面积变化对气温变化的响应模式,对于冰川资源的保护和利用具有重要意义。利用Landsat MSS、TM和OLI影像,采用比值阈值法结合目视修正,提取了阿尔金山地区1973—2020年8个时期的冰川边界信息,分析了冰川的时空变化特征,并结合距离阿尔金山较近的且末、若羌、茫崖和冷湖等四个气象站点的气象数据,分析了冰川变化对气温变化的响应规律。主要结论如下：1973—2020年阿尔金山地区冰川整体处于退缩状态,面积减少了（64.89±12.36） km2（19.21%±2.90%）;1973—1990年冰川退缩较快,年均退缩率为（0.49±0.07）%·a-1;1990—1995年和1995—2000年这两个时期冰川退缩最快,年均退缩率分别为（1.07±0.08）%·a-1和（1.08±0.08）%·a-1;2000年后,冰川退缩速率较慢,比较稳定,年均退缩率均低于0.2%·a-1。气温是影响阿尔金山地区1973—2020年冰川变化的主要气候因子。阿尔金山地区冰川对不同气温变化阶段的响应模式为：气温升高阶段,冰川消融,冰川面积减少;气温稳定阶段,冰川逐渐进入新的动态均衡状态,冰川面积也相对稳定;气温降低阶段,因冰川运动的滞后性,冰川面积在短时间内无明显变化。  相似文献   

13.
北极Svalbard地区冰川物质平衡研究进展   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  
回顾了Svalbard地区冰川物质平衡观测研究的历史,总结了该区域自1950年代以来冰川物质平衡的主要特征.结果表明:1)冰川净平衡、冬季积累和夏季消融没有明显长期变化趋势,净平衡一般为负值,导致冰体不断地缩减;2)冰川冬季积累年际波动较小,基本保持稳定状态;夏季消融年际波动较大,但没有融化增加的迹象;3)面积/海拔高度分布的不同导致了各冰川物质平衡的差异,面积较小(<10 km2)、海拔较低(<500 m)的冰川持续退缩;而具有更高海拔高度、更大面积的冰川则处于平衡或略微增长状态;4)净平衡与冰川平衡线高度(ELA)具有良好的负相关性,平均物质平衡梯度无明显变化,物质平衡对平衡线高度变化(气候变化)的敏感性保持稳定;5)Svalbard地区冰川物质平衡与该区夏季各月正积温和冬季降水具有密切的相关性.最后提出了加强Svalbard地区冰川物质平衡内补给过程研究以及与我国天山冰川物质平衡的对比研究,以求更加准确地认识Svalbard地区冰川物质平衡特征.  相似文献   

14.
Glaciers in the southern province of the Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) of Chile (37–46°S) have experienced significant frontal retreats and area losses in recent decades which have been primarily triggered by tropospheric warming and precipitation decrease. The resulting altitudinal increase of the Equilibrium Line Altitude or ELA of glaciers has lead to varied responses to climate, although the predominant volcanic stratocone morphologies prevent drastic changes in their Accumulation Area Ratios or AAR. Superimposed on climate changes however, glacier variations have been influenced by frequent eruptive activity. Explosive eruptions of ice capped volcanoes have the strongest potential to destroy glaciers, with the most intense activity in historical times being recorded at Nevados de Chillán, Villarrica and Hudson. The total glacier area located on top of the 26 active volcanoes in the study area is ca. 500 km2. Glacier areal reductions ranged from a minimum of −0.07 km2 a −1 at Mentolat, a volcano with one of the smallest ice caps, up to a maximum of −1.16 km2 a −1 at Volcán Hudson. Extreme and contrasting glacier–volcano interactions are summarised with the cases ranging from the abnormal ice frontal advances at Michinmahuida, following the Chaitén eruption in 2008, to the rapid melting of the Hudson intracaldera ice following its plinian eruption of 1991. The net effect of climate changes and volcanic activity are negative mass balances, ice thinning and glacier area shrinkage. This paper summarizes the glacier changes on selected volcanoes within the region, and discusses climatic versus volcanic induced changes. This is crucial in a volcanic country like Chile due to the hazards imposed by lahars and other volcanic processes.  相似文献   

15.
Evidence of past glacier fluctuations is valuable palaeoenvironmental data, but determining their relationship to climatic change is sometimes complex because of differing glacier sensitivities and patterns of response. In Iceland, a diverse range of glaciation creates changing geographical patterns of response to climatic changes. The outlet glaciers of the Márdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland have produced detailed, but differing, records of change. For a key southwestern sector of the ice cap, we specifically searched for evidence equivalent to the c . 4500 BP, c . 3100 BP and c . 1200 BP advances of Sólheimajökull reported earlier. A combination of geomorphological mapping and dating by tephrochronology and lichenometry was used to constrain the glacier advances and determine the relative magnitude of Neoglacial glacier episodes. This is a key step towards creating a record of the changes for the entire ice cap. Major glacier advances c . 4500–1000 BP previously identified on the southern margin of Márdalsjökull are shown not to have occurred in this sector, where Neoglacial maxima occur post-1755 AD.  相似文献   

16.
Submarine geomorphology is one of the main tools for understanding past fluctuations of tidewater glaciers. In this study we investigate the glacial history of Mohnbukta, on the east coast of Spitsbergen, Svalbard, by combining multibeam‐bathymetric data, marine sediment cores and remote sensing data. Presently, three tidewater glaciers, Heuglinbreen, Königsbergbreen and Hayesbreen calve into Mohnbukta. Hayesbreen surged at the end of the Little Ice Age, between 1901 and 1910. The submarine landform assemblage in Mohnbukta contains two large transverse ridges, interpreted as terminal moraines, with debrisflow lobes on their distal slopes and sets of well‐preserved geometric networks of ridges, interpreted as crevasse‐squeeze ridges inshore of the moraines. The arrangement of crevasse‐squeeze ridges suggests that both landform sets were produced during surge‐type advances. The terminus position of the 1901–1910 Hayesbreen surge correlates with the inner (R.2) terminal moraine ridge suggesting that the R.1 ridge formed prior to 1901. Marine sediment cores display 14C ages between 5700–7700 cal. a BP derived from benthic foraminifera, from a clast‐rich mud unit. This unit represents pre‐surge unconsolidated Holocene sediments pushed in front of the glacier terminus and mixed up during the 1901 surge. An absence of retreat moraines in the deeper part of the inner basin and the observation of tabular icebergs calving off the glacier front during retreat suggest that the front of Hayesbreen was close to flotation, at least in the deeper parts of the basin. As the MOH15‐01 core does not penetrate into a subglacial till and the foraminifera in the samples were well preserved, the R.1 ridge is suggested to have formed prior to the deposition of the foraminifera. Based on these data we propose that a surge‐type advance occurred in Mohnbukta in the early Holocene, prior to 7700 cal. a BP, which in turn indicates that glaciers can switch to and from surge mode.  相似文献   

17.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2007,26(5-6):644-677
We mapped and dated the glacial geomorphology of north-east South Georgia, in the maritime sub-Antarctic. The aim was to examine the timing of deglaciation of the island in the context of inter-hemispheric phasing of climate change. Former glacier limits are restricted to the inner fjords, and our detailed mapping of them has demonstrated a consistent geomorphological pattern that is similar across several different glacier types and sizes. The pattern comprises three suites of moraines (categories “a–c”), not all of which are represented at every site because the outer suite is often overridden by younger suites. Category “a” is an outer wide, low amplitude moraine ridge, category “b” comprises 2–4 sharp-crested, bouldery moraines that are often located close to or even over-riding “a”, and category “c” is a series of lower amplitude moraines with overprinted streamlined landforms such as flutings. Analysis of in situ cosmogenic 10Be in boulders on these moraines has allowed us to determine a deglacial chronology for the older two moraine groups. The age of the inner (youngest) group has been estimated from soil development. The cosmogenic nuclide ages show that the outermost moraine was deposited ca 12.2±1.5 ka BP, but that a subsequent readvance in the mid-Holocene (ca 3.6±1.1 ka BP) reached and, in places, over-rode this earlier moraine. This latter advance coincides with the “Mid Holocene Hypsithermal”. A final Late Holocene advance reached closely similar limits to the previous two fluctuations and is estimated from soil data to have an age of ca 1.1 ka BP. We suggest that the close concordance of Late-Glacial and interglacial limits (in this case associated with warming) can be explained by a change in dominant forcing. During glacials, extensive sea-ice limits precipitation availability and so glaciers are restricted to the inner fjords. During interglacials precipitation is not limited in the same way by sea-ice cover and so during warming precipitation increases and tidewater glaciers on the island have responded by advancing. This study emphasises the importance of a clear understanding of geomorphology in order to interpret chronological information.  相似文献   

18.
物质平衡是冰川对气候变化最直接的响应,是冰川变化的重要参数.大陆型冰川与海洋型冰川发育在不同的水热环境下,它们对气候变化的响应程度、过程和机理存在很大差异,因此在全球变暖背景下对这两类不同性质冰川物质平衡变化特征及其机理做一全面的对比研究意义重大.以东、西天山的乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川和图尤克苏冰川以及阿尔卑斯山东、中、西部的欣特雷斯冰川、Caresèr冰川和Sarennes冰川为参照冰川,在对比分析这五条参照冰川近60 a来物质平衡变化幅度差异和阶段性差异基础上,对大陆型冰川与海洋型冰川物质平衡变化特征及其机理进行了对比研究.结果表明:在物质平衡阶段性变化上,阿尔卑斯山参照冰川物质平衡变化具有相似的阶段性,而天山和阿尔卑斯山参照冰川之间以及天山内部两条参照冰川之间物质平衡阶段性变化存在很大的差异,可见,无论不同性质冰川还是同一性质的不同冰川,其物质平衡的阶段性变化都可能存在差异,这与不同冰川所处环境水热变化的时间差异有关,而与冰川性质无关;在物质平衡变化幅度上,海洋型冰川变化幅度明显大于大陆型冰川,原因是不同性质冰川发育的水热环境及其对气候变化敏感性差异;在前人对冰川加速消融机理的研究基础上,本文也讨论了大陆型冰川与海洋型冰川物质平衡变化的机理及其异同.  相似文献   

19.
青藏高原冰川对气候变化的响应及趋势预测   总被引：49，自引：3，他引：46  
青藏高原是世界上中低纬度地区最大的现代冰川分布区,这里冰川末端在近百年来总的进退变化趋势是退缩,但在本世纪初至20～30年代和70～80年代间多数冰川曾出现过稳定甚至前进。对比近百年来气候变化,冰川变化虽然滞后于温度变化,但它们之间存在着很好的对应关系,多数冰川对温度变化滞后时间在10～20年间。根据80年代以来平均物质净平衡值,大致将青藏高原划分为:内部为平衡或正平衡区;向外为负平衡区;边缘为强负平衡区。以冰川对气候响应滞后关系预测,在今后10～20年间,青藏高原边缘冰川末端仍继续处于后退,而高原内部冰川末端位置变化不大。  相似文献   

20.
The morphology and surface ages of talus-derived rock glaciers are investigated to establish the timing of rock glacier formation in the central Southern Alps. Samples of rock weathering rinds show that all rock glaciers studied were formed during the Neoglacial period, but differences exist between sites in the number of new rock glacier lobes formed by Holocene climatic fluctuations. A qualitative conceptual model is proposed to explain rock glacier formation in terms of two thresholds. An external threshold relates to the presence of a cool climate capable of allowing internal ice to form within talus slopes. An internal threshold relates to the presence of sufficiently thick talus at a site to generate a shear stress capable of overcoming internal friction within the talus/ice mass. The model produces a non-steady-state response to explain why unmodified talus, single-lobed and double-lobed rock glaciers developed at adjacent sites under the same climatic regime. Individual landforms have different sensitivities to formation, which depend partly on the previous history of talus accumulation and rock glacier activity at a site. The model demonstrates how successive cool climate periods may be fully represented by rock glacier lobes at sensitive sites but under-represented at insensitive sites. Sensitivity (and therefore climatic representativeness) is favoured by high rates of debris supply. By implication, the timing of formation of rock glacier lobes in regions of prolonged cool climate and low debris production is less likely to correspond to the timing of climatic cooling and more likely to follow the ‘rules’ of deterministic chaos.  相似文献   

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