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1.
Teleconnections：Summer Monsoon over Korea and India   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  
This study investigates the relationship between the summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and India,by using correlation analysis and Singular Value Decomposition(SVD).Results reveal that summer monsoon rainfall over Korea is negatively(significant at the 99% level) correlated with the rainfall over the northwest and central parts of India.In addition,coupled spatial modes between the rainfall over Korea and India have been identified by the SVD analysis.The squared covariance fraction explained by the first mode is 70% and the correlation coefficient between the time coefficients of the two fields is significant at the 99% level,indicating that the coupled mode reflects a large part of the interaction between the summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and India.The first mode clearly demonstrates the existence of a significant negative correlation between the rainfall over the northwest and central parts of India and the rainfall over Korea.Possible mechanisms of this correlation are investigated by analyzing the variation of upper-level atmospheric circulation associated with the Tibetan high using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data.  相似文献   

2.
The relationship between the all-India summer monsoon rainfall and surface pressure over the Indian region has been examined to obtain a useful predictor for the monsoon rainfall. The data series of all-India monsoon rainfall and the mean pressures of three seasons before and after the monsoon season as well as the winter-to-spring pressure tendency (MAM-DJF) at 100 stations for the period 1951-1980 have been used in the analysis.The all-India monsoon rainfall is negatively correlated with the pressure of the spring (MAM) season preceding the monsoon and winter-to-spring seasonal difference as pressure tendency (MAM-DJF), at almost all the stations in India, and significantly with the pressures over central and northwestern regions. The average mean sea level pressure of six stations (Jodhpur, Ahmedabed, Bombay, Indore, Sagar and Akola) in the Western Central Indian (WCI) region showed highly significant (at 1% level) and consistent CCs of-0.63 for MAM and -0.56 for MAM-DJF for the period 1951 - 1980. T  相似文献   

3.
As the low-carbon transition accelerates, loans to and investments in carbon-intensive assets, firms and sectors are at risk of not generating the anticipated returns, with implications for individual financial institutions as well as financial markets more broadly. However, research on this topic has largely been focused on high- and upper-middle income economies to date. In this paper, we explore the salience of this issue in India – one of the world’s largest emitters and economies – by asking: (1) how extensive is financial-sector exposure to transition risks? And: (2) are finance professionals and financial institutions taking sufficient action to manage those transition risks? Our findings reveal that India’s financial sector is much more heavily exposed to low-carbon transition risks than standard borrowing classifications might suggest. For example, our granular assessment of individual loans and bonds finds that three-fifths of lending to the ‘mining’ sector is for oil and gas extraction, while one-fifth of ‘manufacturing’ debt is for petroleum refining and related industries. We also find that electricity production – by far the largest source of emissions – accounts for 5.2% of outstanding credit, but that only 17.5% of this lending is to pureplay renewables. Yet our survey of India’s largest financial institutions suggests that there have been limited efforts to identify, measure or manage low-carbon transition risks. Fewer than half of the 154 finance professionals surveyed were familiar with environmental issues including climate change mitigation and adaption, greenhouse gas emissions or transition risks. Only four of the ten major financial institutions surveyed collect information on ESG risks, and these firms do not systematically incorporate that data into business continuity planning, internal capital adequacy assessment processes, credit risk assessments, enterprise risk management frameworks or loan product pricing. Given extensive financial-sector exposure to low-carbon transition risks coupled with the absence of bottom-up action to manage those risks, our findings suggest that financiers, regulators and policymakers in emerging and developing economies should be acting swiftly to ensure an orderly transition to net-zero.  相似文献   

4.
Continuous periodogram analyses of 115 years (1871-1985) summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region show that the power spectra follow the universal and unique inverse power law form of the statistical normal distribution with the percentage contribution to total variance representing the eddy probability corresponding to the normalized standard deviation equal to [(log L / log T50)-1] where L is the period length in years and T50 the period up to which the cumulative percentage contribution to total variance is equal to 50. The above results are consistent with a recently developed non-deterministic cell dynamical model for atmospheric flows. The implications of the above result for prediction of interannual variability of rainfall is discussed.  相似文献   

5.
The impact of urbanization is assessed by comparing values of the radiation parameters at an urban location with those of a rural site. Urban Delhi was divided according to land-use and the effects of urbanization was studied on incoming short-wave (K), albedo, incoming longwave (L, outgoing longwave (L), and net radiation (Q *), were individually studied at four representative sites (Rural, Commercial, Residential and Industrial). MaximumK was observed in the rural and commercial areas whereas highL was observed in the commercial and industrial locations. High depletion ofK of the order of 13% was observed for the industrial location in the winter season. An increase ofL in, the industrial location is of the same order as that of the commercial location, i.e. 20%. The residential location shows quite moderate (4.6%) depletion ofK in comparison with other sites.Nomenclature U Urban - R Rural - K Incoming Short-wave radiation - L Incoming Long-wave radiation - L Outgoing Long-wave radiation - Q * Net Radiation - Albedo - K * Net Short-wave radiation - L * Net Long-wave radiation  相似文献   

6.
Most of the annual rainfall over India occurs during the Southwest (June?CSeptember) and Northeast (October?CDecember) monsoon periods. In March 2008, however, Southern peninsular India and Sri Lanka received the largest rainfall anomaly on record since 1979, with amplitude comparable to summer-monsoon interannual anomalies. This anomalous rainfall appeared to be modulated at intraseasonal timescale by the Madden Julian Oscillation, and was synchronous with a decaying La Ni?a event in the Pacific Ocean. Was this a coincidence or indicative of a teleconnection pattern? In this paper, we explore factors controlling rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka between January and April, i.e. outside of the southwest and northeast monsoons. This period accounts for 20% of annual precipitation over Sri Lanka and 10% over the southern Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Interannual variability is strong (about 40% of the January?CApril climatology). Intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over southern India and Sri Lanka are significantly associated with equatorial eastward propagation, characteristic of the Madden Julian Oscillation. At the interannual timescale, we find a clear connection with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); with El Ni?os being associated with decreased rainfall (correlation of ?0.46 significant at the 98% level). There is also a significant link with local SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean, and in particular with the inter-hemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Indian Ocean (with colder SST south of the equator being conducive to more rainfall, correlation of 0.55 significant at the 99% level). La Ni?as/cold SSTs south of the equator tend to have a larger impact than El Ni?os. We discuss two possible mechanisms that could explain these statistical relationships: (1) subsidence over southern India remotely forced by Pacific SST anomalies; (2) impact of ENSO-forced regional Indian Ocean SST anomalies on convection. However, the length of the observational record does not allow distinguishing between these two mechanisms in a statistically significant manner.  相似文献   

7.
Investigations into the climatic forcings that affect the long-term variability of the Indian summer monsoon are constrained by a lack of reliable rainfall data prior to the late nineteenth century. Extensive qualitative and quantitative meteorological information for the pre-instrumental period exists within historical documents, although these materials have been largely unexplored. This paper presents the first reconstruction of monsoon variability using documentary sources, focussing on western India for the period 1781–1860. Three separate reconstructions are generated, for (1) Mumbai, (2) Pune and (3) the area of Gujarat bordering the Gulf of Khambat. A composite chronology is then produced from the three reconstructions, termed the Western India Monsoon Rainfall reconstruction (WIMR). The WIMR exhibits four periods of generally deficient monsoon rainfall (1780–1785, 1799–1806, 1830–1838 and 1845–1857) and three of above-normal rainfall (1788–1794, 1813–1828 and 1839–1844). The WIMR shows good correspondence with a dendroclimatic drought reconstruction for Kerala, although agreement with the western Indian portion of the tree-ring derived Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas is less strong. The reconstruction is used to examine the long-term relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon rainfall over western India. This exhibits peaks and troughs in correlation over time, suggesting a regular long-term fluctuation. This may be an internal oscillation in the ENSO-monsoon system or may be related to volcanic aerosol forcings. Further reconstructions of monsoon rainfall are necessary to validate this. The study highlights uncertainties in existing published rainfall records for 1817–1846 for western India.  相似文献   

8.
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9.
Reference emission scenarios in the literature have been the target of criticisms that suggest they convey too optimistic views on spontaneous energy-GDP decoupling of emerging countries economies. This article focuses on the case of India. It explores the role of current suboptimalities of the Indian power sector (structural under-investment in the sector leading to capacity shortage, power cuts and low efficiency) on future energy-GDP decoupling. To do so, it uses a hybrid general equilibrium framework, in which these suboptimalities are explicitly introduced. The results highlight that whether the constraints on investments in the power sector persist or not leads to contrasted trends in energy-GDP decoupling and GHG emissions. Over the short-term, capital scarcity in the power sector constrains the development of energy-intensive activities and therefore leads to higher energy-GDP decoupling. But on the longer-term, constrains on the power sector capacity limits substitution from fossil fuels to electricity, which entails both a low energy-GDP decoupling and a constraint on GDP growth when oil prices are high. The alleviation of suboptimalities appears thus as an insurance policy towards future oil price increase.  相似文献   

10.
Climate change has the potential ability to alter the occurrence and severity of extreme events. Though predicting changes of such extreme events is difficult, understanding them is important to determine the impacts of climate change in various sectors. This paper presents the change in rainfall extremes in the monsoon season in south-west Indian peninsula. Daily rainfall data were analysed for the entire Kerala state in India to determine if the extreme rainfall had changed over the 50-year period. Several indices were derived from the data to identify the extreme rainfalls. The trends of all the extreme indices were assessed by parametric ordinary least square regression technique, which were tested for significance at 95% level. Results showed significant decrease in monsoon rainfall extremes in Kerala that would affect the tendency of change in seasonal total rainfall. This study provides a comprehensive knowledge on extreme monsoon precipitation in Kerala, which could also be employed to study changing climate at local scale in other regions.  相似文献   

11.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Analysis of climatic variables is important for the detection and attribution of climate change trends and has received considerable attention from researchers...  相似文献   

12.
Along with the large middle-income countries Brazil, China, and South Africa, India has been put under increasing pressure to shoulder parts of the mitigation burden and commit to national emission reduction targets. India, however, refers to its limited capacity and widespread poverty. Is India hiding behind its poor? While others examine the distribution of emissions within the country to answer this question, we study domestic policy making for energy subsidies and access to clean energy. Empirical evidence suggests that domestic policy making is at least partially consistent with the pro-poor arguments advanced at the international level. Given their large number and the country's democratic system, the poor do have some weight in Indian politics. However, pro-poor policies end where they do not translate into greater vote shares. Moreover, India's international position ignores the existing complementarities between climate-friendly and pro-poor activities.

Policy relevance

Despite India's recent growth spurt, its concern to fight energy poverty at home before engaging in any commitments on climate policy at the international level should be taken seriously within the international negotiations. Policy making in India is driven by democratic incentives, which, in this case, work to the benefit of the poor. Pro-poor policies may not go as far as one would wish from a developmental perspective, but the impact of the masses of the poor on domestic policy making is politically significant and cannot be ignored. This also provides some broader lessons for mitigation and adaptation policies in developing countries: politicians respond to incentives and support will only reach the needy if the appropriate incentives are in place. While we observe some significant commitment and implementation problems even in a democratic country like India, such problems must be expected to be even more serious elsewhere. This should not be overlooked when designing institutions for the allocation of climate finance, such as the Green Climate Fund.  相似文献   

13.
The spatio-temporal variation of the tropopause height (TH) over the Indian region (5°N-35°N, 70°E-95°E) has been studied using monthly mean TH data, for 22-year period, 1965 to 1986. The study revealed that the stations south of 20° showed maximum TH in April / May and minimum in September. This variation in TH has been attributed to the corresponding variation of average sea surface temperature (SST) over ± 20° latitudinal belt over Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Further the stations north of 20°N showed maximum in June and minimum in October/ November. This maximum in TH has primarily been attributed to the increased insolation and convection. Furthermore it is noticed that the anomaly of TH moved northwards during the period April to July.The interannual variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon Activity (ISMA) has been studied in relation to all India mean TH (at 12 GMT) for six months April through September. The composites of mean TH for good and bad monsoon years showed that  相似文献   

14.
The 2009 drought in India was one of the major droughts that the country faced in the last 100?years. This study describes the anomalous features of 2009 summer monsoon and examines real-time seasonal predictions made using six general circulation models (GCMs). El Ni?o conditions evolved in the Pacific Ocean, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian Ocean were warmer than normal during monsoon 2009. The observed circulation patterns indicate a weaker monsoon in that year over India with weaker than normal convection over the Bay of Bengal and Indian landmass. Skill of the GCMs during hindcast period shows that neither these models simulate the observed interannual variability nor their multi-model ensemble (MME) significantly improves the skill of monsoon rainfall predictions. Except for one model used in this study, the real-time predictions with longer lead (2- and 1-month lead) made for the 2009 monsoon season did not provide any indication of a highly anomalous monsoon. However, with less lead time (zero lead), most of the models as well as the MME had provided predictions of below normal rainfall for that monsoon season. This study indicates that the models could not predict the 2009 drought over India due to the use of less warm SST anomalies over the Pacific in the longer lead runs. Hence, it is proposed that the uncertainties in SST predictions (the lower boundary condition) have to be represented in the model predictions of summer monsoon rainfall over India.  相似文献   

15.
A deep low in sea-level pressure is present from May to September over Pakistan and northwestern India (hereafter, the Pak?CIndia low). It is often referred as the ??heat?? low to convey the significance of surface thermal effects reckoned to be important for its origin. The present analysis, rooted in observations and diagnostic modeling, suggests that the Pak?CIndia low is influenced both by regional and remote forcing. Regionally, the influence of Hindu Kush mountains is found to be stronger than the impact of land-surface heating and attendant sensible heating of the planetary boundary layer, questioning the suitability of the ??heat?? label in canonical references to this circulation feature. Observational analysis indicates that the notable May-to-June deepening of the Pak?CIndia low and its further deepening in July, however, arises from remote forcing??the development of monsoon deep-convection over the Bay of Bengal and eastern India in June and July. It is hypothesized that the associated upstream descent over Iran?CTurkmenistan?CAfghanistan (i.e. east of the Caspian Sea) and related low-level northerlies over the Elburz?CZagros?CHindu Kush mountains contribute to the strengthening of the Pak?CIndia low in June (and July) from interaction with regional orography.  相似文献   

16.
Surfaces fluxes, turbulent kinetic energy and Flux Richardson number are calculated for three typical sea breeze days characterizing three types of sea breeze onset at an inland station Kharagpur (22°21 N, 87°19 E), 80 km inland, one of the sites for MONTBLEX (MONsoon Trough Boundary Layer EXperiment), in India. The sea breeze onset is associated with a decrease in momentum and heat fluxes and an increase in moisture flux. The turbulent kinetic energy shows quite a significant value even in the late afternoon. The surface layer becomes nearly stable even before sunset, due to the passage of the sea breeze.  相似文献   

17.
We have studied long-term changes in tropospheric NO2 over South India using ground-based observations, and GOME and OMI satellite data. We have found that unlike urban regions, the region between Eastern and Western Ghat mountain ranges experiences statistically significant decreasing trend. There are few ground-based observatories to verify satellite based trends for rural regions. However, using a past study and recent measurements we show a statistically significant decrease in NOX and O3 mixing ratio over a rural location (Gadanki; 13.48° N, 79.18° E) in South India. In the ground-based records of surface NOX, the concentration during 2010–11 is found to be lower by 0.9 ppbv which is nearly 60 % of the values observed during 1994–95. Small but statistically significant decrease in noon-time peak ozone concentration is also observed. Noon-time peak ozone concentration has decreased from 34?±?13 ppbv during 1993–96 to 30?±?15 ppbv during 2010–11. NOX mixing ratios are very low over Gadanki. In spite of low NOX values (0.5 to 2 ppbv during 2010–11), ozone mixing ratios are not significantly low compared to many cities with high NOX. The monthly mean ozone mixing ratio varies from 9 ppbv to 37 ppbv with high values during Spring and low values during late Summer. Using a box-model, we show that presence of VOCs is also very important in addition to NOX in determining ozone levels in rural environment and to explain its seasonal cycle.  相似文献   

18.
Climate change has affected the temperature and rainfall characteristics worldwide. However, the changes are not equal for all regions and have localized intensity and must be quantified locally to manage the natural resources. Orissa is an eastern state in India where agricultural activities mainly depends on the rainfall and thus face problems due to changing patterns of rainfall due to changing climate. In the present study, attempts were made to study temporal variation in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall over the state during the period from 1871 to 2006. Long term changes in rainfall characteristics were determined by both parametric and non-parametric tests. The analysis revealed a long term insignificant decline trend of annual as well as monsoon rainfall, where as increasing trend in post-monsoon season over the state of Orissa. Rainfall during winter and summer seasons showed an increasing trend. Statistically monsoon rainfall can be considered as very dependable as the coefficient of variation is 14.2%. However, there is decreasing monthly rainfall trend in June, July and September, where as increasing trend in August. This trend is more predominant in last 10?year. Based on departure from mean, rainfall analysis also showed an increased number of dry years compared to wet years after 1950. This changing rainfall trend during monsoon months is major concern for the rain-fed agriculture. More over, this will affect hydro power generation and reservoir operation in the region.  相似文献   

19.
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20.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The southwest (SW) monsoon season (June, July, August and September) is the major period of rainfall over the Indian region. The present study focuses on the...  相似文献   

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