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1.
The earthquakes in Kaliningrad, West Russia on the 21st of September 2004 were unexpected in a seismically quiet area. The main shock of magnitude mb = 5 was widely felt around the Baltic Sea. A comparison with some historic earthquakes in Northern Europe shows that its perceptibility area is smaller than that of the 1904 Oslo Graben earthquake of an estimated magnitude (ML) 5.4 but larger than those of the 1759 Kattegat and 1819 Lurøy earthquakes. The latter are claimed to have had magnitudes (MS) in the range of 5.7-6.0. An analysis of the Lg phase of the Kaliningrad earthquakes as recorded at a number of European stations accords only weakly with the macroseismic intensity pattern that shows fast attenuation towards west-northwest and southeast. The strike-slip focal mechanism of the main shock is discussed in the context of remnant glacial rebound stresses in generating present-day seismicity in N. Europe.  相似文献   

2.
Aftershock sequences of the magnitude M W =6.4 Bingöl earthquake of 1 May, 2003 (Turkey) are studied to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of seismicity parameters of the b value of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the p value describing the temporal decay rate of aftershocks. The catalog taken from the KOERI contains 516 events and one month’s time interval. The b value is found as 1.49 ± 0.07 with Mc =3.2. Considering the error limits, b value is very close to the maximum b value stated in the literature. This larger value may be caused by the paucity of the larger aftershocks with magnitude M D ≥ 5.0. Also, the aftershock area is divided into four parts in order to detect the differences in b value and the changes illustrate the heterogeneity of the aftershock region. The p value is calculated as 0.86 ± 0.11, relatively small. This small p value may be a result of the slow decay rate of the aftershock activity and the small number of aftershocks. For the fitting of a suitable model and estimation of correct values of decay parameters, the sequence is also modeled as a background seismicty rate model. Constant background activity does not appear to be important during the first month of the Bingöl aftershock sequences and this result is coherent with an average estimation of pre-existing seismicity. The results show that usage of simple modified Omori law is reasonable for the analysis. The spatial variability in b value is between 1.2 and 1.8 and p value varies from 0.6 to 1.2. Although the physical interpretation of the spatial variability of these seismicity parameters is not straightforward, the variation of b and p values can be related to the stress and slip distribution after the mainshock, respectively. The lower b values are observed in the high stress regions and to a certain extent, the largest b values are related to Holocene alluvium. The larger p values are found in some part of the aftershock area although no slip occurred after the main shock and it is interpreted that this situation may be caused by the alluvium structure of the region. These results indicate that the spatial distribution in b and p values are generally related to the rupture mechanism and material properties of an aftershock area.  相似文献   

3.
This paper proposes a synthesis of thestudies made in terms of source parametersevaluation for the last earthquakes oflocal magnitude greater than 4.5 whichoccurred in or nearby France during thelast five years. Focal mechanisms andseismic moments have been computed for thethree most important events, largely feltby the population: St Paul de Fenouillet(February 18th 1996, ML 5.6),Annecy-Epagny (July 15th 1996, ML5.2) and St-Béat (October 4th1999, ML 4.8). These focal mechanismshave been obtained either by regionalmoment tensor inversion or from firstmotion polarities and are compared withcomplementary studies made on theseearthquakes. In addition, for the otherearthquakes of local magnitude greater than4.5 which occurred nearby French borderssince the beginning of the recording ofbroadband data by the RéNaSS(Réseau National de SurveillanceSismique, French Seismological Survey) inmid–1995, several magnitude calculationsconcerning the following earthquakes arepresented: Pamplona (25/2/1996, ML4.7), Aoste (31/03/1996, ML 4.6),Imperia (24/2/1997, ML 4.5),Barcelonette (31/10/1997, ML 4.8),Pamplona (27/10/1998, ML 4.9), andBonifacio (26/4/2000, ML 4.5). Localmagnitudes are usually higher thanthe Mb magnitudes reported by the PDE(Preliminary Determination of Epicenters),while the extension of the Msz scale toregional magnitudes and the Mw magnitudesderived from seismic moments give smallervalues. The relative importance of thevarious earthquakes in terms of surfacewave magnitude or seismic moment does notalways agree with that implied by localmagnitudes.  相似文献   

4.
Calibration of magnitude scales for earthquakes of the Mediterranean   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
In order to provide the tools for uniform size determination for Mediterranean earthquakes over the last 50-year period of instrumental seismology, we have regressed the magnitude determinations for 220 earthquakes of the European-Mediterranean region over the 1977–1991 period, reported by three international centres, 11 national and regional networks and 101 individual stations and observatories, using seismic moments from the Harvard CMTs. We calibrate M(M0) regression curves for the magnitude scales commonly used for Mediterranean earthquakes (ML, MWA, mb, MS, MLH, MLV, MD, M); we also calibrate static corrections or specific regressions for individual observatories and we verify the reliability of the reports of different organizations and observatories. Our analysis shows that the teleseismic magnitudes (mb, MS) computed by international centers (ISC, NEIC) provide good measures of earthquake size, with low standard deviations (0.17–0.23), allowing one to regress stable regional calibrations with respect to the seismic moment and to correct systematic biases such as the hypocentral depth for MS and the radiation pattern for mb; while mb is commonly reputed to be an inadequate measure of earthquake size, we find that the ISC mb is still today the most precise measure to use to regress MW and M0 for earthquakes of the European-Mediterranean region; few individual observatories report teleseismic magnitudes requiring specific dynamic calibrations (BJI, MOS). Regional surface-wave magnitudes (MLV, MLH) reported in Eastern Europe generally provide reliable measures of earthquake size, with standard deviations often in the 0.25–0.35 range; the introduction of a small (±0.1–0.2) static station correction is sometimes required. While the Richter magnitude ML is the measure of earthquake size most commonly reported in the press whenever an earthquake strikes, we find that ML has not been computed in the European-Mediterranean in the last 15 years; the reported local magnitudes MWA and ML do not conform to the Richter formula and are of poor quality and little use, with few exceptions requiring ad hoc calibrations similar to the MS regression (EMSC, ATH). The duration magnitude MD used by most seismic networks confirms that its use requires accurate station calibrations and should be restricted only to events with low seismic moments.  相似文献   

5.
The time variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value are minutely studied based on the data of highly accurate seismological observations at the Garm prognostic site, Tajikistan, where a stationary network of seismic stations of the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth (IPE) of the USSR (Russian) Academy of Sciences was in operation from 1955 to 1992. A total of 93035 local earthquakes ranging from 0.0 to 6.3 in the Ml magnitudes are considered. The spatiotemporal fluctuations in the minimal magnitude of completeness of the earthquakes, Mc, are analyzed. The study considers a 25-year interval of the observations at the center of the observation system within which Mc = 0.9. It is shown that in most cases, the b-value and log10E2/3 experience characteristic time variations before the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than the minimal magnitude of the predicted earthquake (MPE). The 6-year anomaly in the parameters’ b-value, log10E2/3, and log10N associated with the single strongest earthquake with M = 6.3 that occurred in the observation region on October 26, 1984 is revealed. The inversely proportional relationship is established between the time variations in the b-value and the time variations in the velocities of seismic waves Vp and Vp/Vs. It is shown that the exponent p in the power function which links the time variations of the b-value and log10E2/3 is higher in the zones of crustal compression than in the zones of extension. It is simultaneously confirmed that the average b-value in the zones of compression is lower than in the zones of extension. It is established that in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 2.6, the time series of seismic activity log10Ni and the time series of the b-value are highly cross correlated with a coefficient of r ≈ 0.75, whereas in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 0.9, the coefficient of cross correlation between these time series is close to zero (r ≈ 0.06). The law of variations in the slope of the lines approximating the relationship between the log10Ni time series in the different magnitude ranges (M ≥ Mci) and b-value time series is obtained. It is hypothesized that the seismic activity of the earthquakes with high magnitudes can be estimated provided that the parameters of the time series of the b-value and time series of the number of earthquakes logN(ΔMi) in the range of low magnitudes are known. It is concluded that using the parameter log10N for prognostic estimates of the strong earthquakes only makes sense for earthquakes having moderate and large magnitudes. It is inferred that the time variations in the b-value are predominantly contributed by the time variations of the earthquakes with relatively large magnitudes.  相似文献   

6.
By linear regression and orthogonal regression methods, comparisons are made between different magnitudes (lo-cal magnitude ML, surface wave magnitudes MS and MS7, long-period body wave magnitude mB and short-period body wave magnitude mb) determined by Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, on the basis of observation data collected by China Seismograph Network between 1983 and 2004. Empirical relations between different magnitudes have been obtained. The result shows that: 1 As different magnitude scales reflect radiated energy by seismic waves within different periods, earthquake magnitudes can be described more objectively by using different scales for earthquakes of different magnitudes. When the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, local magnitude ML can be a preferable scale; In case M<4.5, there is little difference between the magnitude scales; In case 4.5MS, i.e., MS underestimates magnitudes of such events, therefore, mB can be a better choice; In case M>6.0, MS>mB>mb, both mB and mb underestimate the magnitudes, so MS is a preferable scale for deter-mining magnitudes of such events (6.08.5, a saturation phenomenon appears in MS, which cannot give an accurate reflection of the magnitudes of such large events; 2 In China, when the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, there is almost no difference between ML and MS, and thus there is no need to convert be-tween the two magnitudes in practice; 3 Although MS and MS7 are both surface wave magnitudes, MS is in general greater than MS7 by 0.2~0.3 magnitude, because different instruments and calculation formulae are used; 4 mB is almost equal to mb for earthquakes around mB4.0, but mB is larger than mb for those of mB≥4.5, because the periods of seismic waves used for measuring mB and mb are different though the calculation formulae are the same.  相似文献   

7.
—?Earthquake hazard parameters are estimated by the application of the maximum likelihood method. The technique is based on a procedure which utilizes data of different quality, e.g., those in which the uncertainty in the assessment of the magnitudes is great and those in which the magnitudes are computed with great precision. In other words the data were extracted from both historical (incomplete) and recorded (complete) files. The historical part of the catalogue contains only the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several sub-catalogues; each one assumed to be complete above a specified magnitude threshold. Uncertainty in the determination of magnitudes has also been taken into account. The method allows us to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters which are the maximum regional magnitude, M max, the activity rate, λ, of the seismic events and the well known value β (b=β?log?e), which is the slope of the magnitude-frequency relationship. All these parameters are of physical significance. The mean return periods, RP, of earthquakes with a certain lower magnitude M?≥?m are also determined. The method is applied in the Island of Crete and the adjacent area, where catastrophic earthquakes are known from the historical era. The earthquake hazard of the whole area is divided in a cellular manner which allow the analysis of the localized hazard parameters and the representation of their regional variation. The seismic hazard analysis, which is expressed by: (a) The annual probability of exceedance of a specified value of magnitude and (b) the return periods (in years) that are expected for given magnitudes, for shallow events is finally performed for shallow events. This hazard analysis is useful for both theoretical and practical reasons and provides a tool for earthquake resistant design in both areas of low and high seismicity.  相似文献   

8.
The various useful source-parameter relations between seismic moment and common use magnitude lg(M 0) andM s,M L,m b; between magnitudesMs andM L,M s andm b,M L andm b; and between magnitudeM s and lg(L) (fault length), lg (W) (fault width), lg(S) (fault area), lg(D) (average dislocation);M L and lg(f c) (corner frequency) have been derived from the scaling law which is based on an “average” two-dimensional faulting model of a rectangular fault. A set of source-parameters can be estimated from only one magnitude by using these relations. The average rupture velocity of the faultV r=2.65 km/s, the total time of ruptureT(s)=0.35L (km) and the average dislocation slip rateD=11.4 m/s are also obtained. There are four strong points to measure earthquake size with the seismic moment magnitudeM w.
  1. The seismic moment magnitude shows the strain and rupture size. It is the best scale for the measurement of earthquake size.
  2. It is a quantity of absolute mechanics, and has clear physical meaning. Any size of earthquake can be measured. There is no saturation. It can be used to quantify both shallow and deep earthquakes on the basis of the waves radiated.
  3. It can link up the previous magnitude scales.
  4. It is a uniform scale of measurement of earthquake size. It is suitable for statistics covering a broad range of magnitudes. So the seismic moment magnitude is a promising magnitude and worth popularization.
  相似文献   

9.
In this study, we aim to improve the scaling between the moment magnitude (M W), local magnitude (M L), and the duration magnitude (M D) for 162 earthquakes in Shillong-Mikir plateau and its adjoining region of northeast India by extending the M W estimates to lower magnitude earthquakes using spectral analysis of P-waves from vertical component seismograms. The M W-M L and M W-M D relationships are determined by linear regression analysis. It is found that, M W values can be considered consistent with M L and M D, within 0.1 and 0.2 magnitude units respectively, in 90 % of the cases. The scaling relationships investigated comply well with similar relationships in other regions in the world and in other seismogenic areas in the northeast India region.  相似文献   

10.
An attempt has been made to examine an empirical relationship between moment magnitude (M W) and local magnitude (M L) for the earthquakes in the northeast Indian region. Some 364 earthquakes that were recorded during 1950–2009 are used in this study. Focal mechanism solutions of these earthquakes include 189 Harvard-CMT solutions (M W?≥?4.0) for the period 1976–2009, 61 published solutions and 114 solutions obtained for the local earthquakes (2.0?≤?M L?≤?5.0) recorded by a 27-station permanent broadband network during 2001–2009 in the region. The M W–M L relationships in seven selected zones of the region are determined by linear regression analysis. A significant variation in the M W–M L relationship and its zone specific dependence are reported here. It is found that M W is equivalent to M L with an average uncertainty of about 0.13 magnitude units. A single relationship is, however, not adequate to scale the entire northeast Indian region because of heterogeneous geologic and geotectonic environments where earthquakes occur due to collisions, subduction and complex intra-plate tectonics.  相似文献   

11.
Empirical Global Relations Converting M S and m b to Moment Magnitude   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The existence of several magnitude scales used by seismological centers all over the world and the compilation of earthquake catalogs by many authors have rendered globally valid relations connecting magnitude scales a necessity. This would allow the creation of a homogeneous global earthquake catalog, a useful tool for earthquake research. Of special interest is the definition of global relations converting different magnitude scales to the most reliable and useful scale of magnitude, the moment magnitude, M W. In order to accomplish this, a very large sample of data from international seismological sources (ISC, NEIC, HRVD, etc.) has been collected and processed. The magnitude scales tested against M W are the surface wave magnitude, M S, the body wave magnitude, m b, and the local magnitude, M L. The moment magnitudes adopted have been taken from the CMT solutions of HRVD and USGS. The data set used in this study contains 20,407 earthquakes, which occurred all over the world during the time period 1.1.1976–31.5.2003, for which moment magnitudes are available. It is shown that well-defined relations hold between M W and m b and M S and that these relations can be reliably used for compiling homogeneous, with respect to magnitude, earthquake catalogs.  相似文献   

12.
In this study, the spatial distributions of seismicity and seismic hazard were assessed for Turkey and its surrounding area. For this purpose, earthquakes that occurred between 1964 and 2004 with magnitudes of M ≥ 4 were used in the region (30–42°N and 20–45°E). For the estimation of seismicity parameters and its mapping, Turkey and surrounding area are divided into 1,275 circular subregions. The b-value from the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is calculated by the classic way and the new alternative method both using the least-squares approach. The a-value in the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is taken as a constant value in the new alternative method. The b-values calculated by the new method were mapped. These results obtained from both methods are compared. The b-value shows different distributions along Turkey for both techniques. The b-values map prepared with new technique presents a better consistency with regional tectonics, earthquake activities, and epicenter distributions. Finally, the return period and occurrence hazard probability of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in 75 years were calculated by using the Poisson model for both techniques. The return period and occurrence hazard probability maps determined from both techniques showed a better consistency with each other. Moreover, maps of the occurrence hazard probability and return period showed better consistency with the b-parameter seismicity maps calculated from the new method. The occurrence hazard probability and return period of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes were calculated as 90–99% and 5–10 years, respectively, from the Poisson model in the western part of the studying region.  相似文献   

13.
Data from 753 earthquakes are used to determine a relationship between surface-wave magnitude (M s) and bodywave magnitude (m b), and from 541 earthquakes to determine a relationship between surface-wave magnitude (M s) and local magnitude (M L) for China and vicinity: M s=0.9883 m b-0.0420, M s=0.9919 M L-0.1773. The relationship of M s versus m b is obtained for 292 events occurred in the Chinese mainland in the time period from 1964 to 1996, 291 events occurred in Taiwan in the time period from 1964 to 1995 and 170 events occurred in the surrounding area. Standard deviation of the fitting is 0.445. Relationship of M s versus M L is obtained for 36 events occurred in the Chinese mainland, 293 events occurred in Taiwan, China and 212 events occurred in the surrounding area. The total amount is 541 events. Standard deviation of the fitting is 0.4673. The uncertainties of the converted M s in different magnitude intervals can be estimated using complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). In the relationship of M s versus m b, taking ±0.25 as a range of uncertainties, in magnitude interval m b 4.0–4.9, the probabilities for the converted M s taken value less than (M s-0.25) and more than (M s+0.25) are 17% and 27% respectively. Similarly, we have probabilities for m b 5.0–5.9 are 34% and 20% and that for m b 6.0–6.9 are 11% and 47%. In the relationship of M s versus M L, if the range of uncertainties is still taken as ±0.25, the corresponding probabilities for magnitude interval M L 4.0–4.9 are 22% and 38%, for M L 5.0–5.9 are 20% and 15% and for magnitude interval M L 6.0–6.9, are 15% and 29%, respectively. The relationships developed in this paper can be used for the conversion of one magnitude scale into another magnitude scales conveniently. The estimation of uncertainties described in this paper is more accurate and more objective than the usual estimation expressed by deviation. The estimations described in this paper indicate various dispersions in different magnitude intervals of original data. The estimations of uncertainties described by probabilities can be well connected with the total estimations of uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment.  相似文献   

14.
In previous research, trace amplitudes of surface wave maxima recorded by undamped Milne seismographs were used to determine the surface-wave magnitudes Ms of large shallow earthquakes which occurred prior to 1912. For this purpose, the effective gain of these instruments was calibrated by using the surface-wave magnitudes Ms(GR) which were calculated from the unpublished worksheets for Seismicity of the Earth of Gutenberg and Richter. In this paper, the real quality of Ms(GR) is critically re-evaluated by using independent sets of data. It is found that Ms(GR) for the period 1904–1909 is considerably overestimated. The average excess from the real Ms is 0.5 units for 1904–1906, 0.4 for 1907, 0.3 for 1908–1909 and 0.0 for 1910–1912. This overestimation is so systematic and large that the previous results are all redetermined. The average effective gain of Milne instruments is revised to be 21.9; previously, the gain depended on Ms. This revision results in systematic reduction in the previously assigned magnitudes. The revised values of Ms for 264 shallow earthquakes, with Ms=6.8 and over in the period 1897–1912 inclusive, are listed. The present revision is large enough to preclude the possibility of the high activity of large shallow earthquakes around the turn of the century. The present results have a direct effect on all the magnitude catalogues of shallow earthquakes which occurred prior to 1909.  相似文献   

15.
A statistical analysis is made for the eastern part of Turkey in the beginning of 2009 by studying the phenomenon of seismic quiescence as a potential precursor of the main shocks. The results produced four areas having seismic quiescence in the beginning of 2009. These areas are observed to be centered at 39.96°N–40.69°E (around A?kale, Erzurum), 39.36°N–39.74°E (around Ovac?k, Tunceli), 39.02°N–40.52°E (including Elaz?? and Bingöl), and 38.45°N–42.94°E (Van Lake). Based on the recent results showing 5 ± 1.5 years quiescence before the occurrence of an earthquake in this region, the future earthquake would be expected between 2009.5 and 2010.5. The future earthquake occurrence may reach 2012 if we consider the standard deviation of average seismic quiescence as ±1.5 years. We have found that the M W = 6.0 Elaz?? earthquake on 8 March 2010, followed a seismic quiescence starting about 5 years before the main shock. Thus, special interest should be given to the other regions where the seismic quiescence is observed.  相似文献   

16.
Summary The local magnitude ML at the seismological station Pruhonice (PRU) was converted into surface wave magnitude MS using the formula MS=–3.2+1.45 ML and the seismic wave energy was estimated using the relation log E (Joule)=1.2+2.0 ML. It was proposed to apply the same conversion formulae at seismological stations Kaperské Hory (KHC) and Berggiesshübel (BRG) where the calibrating functions for local magnitudes were determined for the same set of earthquakes with common reference magnitudes as in the case of the PRU station.  相似文献   

17.
利用模板匹配方法对2015年11月23日青海省祁连县M_S5.2地震进行遗漏地震检测研究,由于主震后短时间内目录中遗漏事件较多,故对主震后1天的连续波形进行检测。主震后1天内青海测震台网记录到的余震个数(包括单台)共62个,选取主震后M_L1.0以上余震30个作为模板事件,通过匹配滤波的方式扫描出遗漏地震31个,约为台网目录给出的0.5倍。基于包络差峰值振幅与震级的线性关系估测检测事件的震级参数,最后将检测后的余震目录与台网余震目录在主震后1天内的最小完备震级进行对比分析,结果发现检测后最小完备震级从M_L1.2降到了M_L0.7,得到青海测震台网在祁连地区最小完整性震级为M_L0.7。  相似文献   

18.
The paper presents the current state of magnitude estimation for Koyna earthquakes exceeding magnitude 3.0. We estimate coda duration magnitude from analogue seismograms recorded on the short period vertical (SPZ) seismometer at Hyderabad seismic observatory HYB and determine moment magnitude using very broad-band (VBB) data from the Geoscope station (HYB)and short period digital data from the local seismic network of NationalGeophysical Research Institute (NGRI) around the Koyna and Warna reservoirs.Firstly, the seismograms of 97 Koyna earthquakes exceeding magnitude 4.0 havebeen used to establish a new empirical coda duration magnitude scale which includes the higher order terms of log10, where is the coda length in seconds. Four background noise levels (1, 2, 6 and 10 mm) areconsidered to estimate the coda duration. We found that the duration magnitudes for 1 mm background level are more stable than those for 2, 6 and 10 mm. The new coda duration magnitude (Mdnew) scale, for 1 mmlevel, is:Mdnew = –0.594 + 2.04 log10 – 0.0435 (log10)2The estimated Mdnew are compatible with the reported MS values of the NGRI observatory and the mb values of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). These magnitudes can be obtained within the standard deviation of ± 0.26 units of MS (NGRI). A new relatively homogeneous catalog for Koyna earthquakes of Mdnew 4.0 is obtained. The momentmagnitudes for 34 Koyna-Warna events of Mdnew ranging from 3.0 to 5.4 have been estimated using two techniques. The first utilizes amplitudes of band-pass filtered (between 15 and 30 sec) velocity traces of moderate Koyna-Warna earthquakes of MW} 4.4 to 5.4, we abbreviate the magnitude using MA. The second is based on the S-wave spectrum of short period seismograms of local earthquakes (MW < 3.8). Moment magnitudes estimated by spectral analysis mainly depend on the estimation of event's long-period spectral level and appears to saturate for moderate Koyna-Warnaearthquakes (MW > 3.8). We recommend the use of both techniques whenever possible. The estimated moment magnitudes and Mdnew show an almost linear relationship with a standard deviation of ± 0.05.  相似文献   

19.
The aim of this study is to investigate the seismicity of Central Anatolia, within the area restricted to coordinates 30–35° longitude and 38–41° latitude, by determining the “a” and “b” parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship using data from earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw)?≥?4.0 that occurred between 1900 and 2010. Based on these parameters and a Poisson model, we aim to predict the probability of other earthquakes of different magnitudes and return periods (recurrence intervals). To achieve this, the study area is divided into six seismogenic zones, using spatial distributions of earthquakes greater than Mw?≥?4.0 with active faults. For each seismogenic zone, the a and b parameters in the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship were calculated by the least squares method. The probability of occurrence and return periods of various magnitude earthquakes were calculated from these statistics using the Poisson method.  相似文献   

20.
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted m b) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with m b greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted M S) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to m b, earthquakes generally have a larger M S magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a hypothesis test (screening analysis) using M S and m b that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics.  相似文献   

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