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1.
Firm finances, weather derivatives and geography 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper considers some intellectual, practical and political dimensions of collaboration between human and physical geographers exploring how firms are using relatively new financial products - weather derivatives - to displace any costs of weather-related uncertainty and risk. The paper defines weather derivatives and indicates how they differ from weather insurance products before considering the geo-political, cultural and economic context for their creation. The paper concludes by reflecting on the challenges of research collaboration across the human-physical geography divide and suggests that while such initiatives may be undermined by a range of institutional and intellectual factors, conversations between physical and human geographers remain and are likely to become increasingly pertinent. The creation of a market in weather derivatives raises a host of urgent political and regulatory questions and the confluence of natural and social knowledges, co-existing within and through the geography academy, provides a constructive and creative basis from which to engage with this new market and wider discourses of uneven economic development and climate change. 相似文献
2.
Michael Pryke 《Geoforum》2007,38(3):576-588
The paper adopts a cultural economy approach to explore the emergence of a market in so-called weather derivatives, referred to in the paper as a form of ‘geomoney’. These are specially designed financial products that allow firms to protect their profits against the impact of changing weather conditions. The paper approaches the emergence of this market, and the issues its growth raises, in three interlinked stages. Weather derivatives are located amongst the hybrid collective that is contemporary finance and are analysed through the conceptual apparatus afforded by a cultural economy approach to finance. The paper employs this analytical line to examine the assumptions and models that enable the weather to be turned into a risk and then be transported and traded within capital markets. Through specific examples of weather products together with a discussion of the International Finance Corporation’s recent involvement in this market, the paper suggests something of the ‘world making’ capabilities of finance theory and the politics of finance often hidden beneath the mathematical models. The paper concludes by highlighting not only the usefulness of a cultural economy of finance to geographers but, in light of the examples discussed, the need for cultural economy to recognise and to engage critically in its analysis the politics that such a conceptual approach to the making of financial markets exposes. 相似文献
3.
Climate change and increased risk for the insurance sector: a global perspective and an assessment for the Netherlands 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. As a consequence, economic losses
caused by natural catastrophes could increase significantly. This will have considerable consequences for the insurance sector.
On the one hand, increased risk from weather extremes requires assessing expected changes in damage and including adequate
climate change projections in risk management. On the other hand, climate change can also bring new business opportunities
for insurers. This paper gives an overview of the consequences of climate change for the insurance sector and discusses several
strategies to cope with and adapt to increased risks. The particular focus is on the Dutch insurance sector, as the Netherlands
is extremely vulnerable to climate change, especially with regard to extreme precipitation and flooding. Current risk sharing
arrangements for weather risks are examined while potential new business opportunities, adaptation strategies, and public–private
partnerships are identified. 相似文献
4.
Until recently, research on potential economic impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on transport infrastructure was scarce, but currently this area is rapidly expanding. Indeed, there is a growing international interest, including the European area, regarding the impacts of extreme weather and climate change on the management of various transportation modes. This paper reviews briefly the present status regarding the knowledge of financial aspects of extreme weather impacts on transportation, using recent research findings from Europe, and proposes some new views in cost-benefit analysis, project appraisal and asset value protection for the management of transport systems under extreme weather risks. Quite often, risk management is understood as a response to truly extreme impacts, but this constitutes a misunderstanding. Some values are more extreme than others, and in the context of extreme weather, some weather phenomena are more extreme in their intensity and resulting impacts. An analysis of the level of costs and risks to societies, as a result of extreme weather, reveals that the risks in different European Union member states deviate substantially from each other. Also, the preparedness of different societies to deal with extreme weather events is quite variable. Extreme weather and climate change costs and risks represent a new type of item, which has to be dealt with in project appraisal. Although a fully established procedure does not exist, some fundamental ideas of cost-benefit analysis under extreme weather scenarios are presented in this paper, considering accident costs, time costs and infrastructure-related costs (comprising physical damages to infrastructures and increased maintenance costs). Cost-benefit analysis is usually associated with capital investments, but the original idea of cost-benefit analysis is not restricted to investment appraisal. Therefore, activities such as enhanced maintenance, minor upgrades, adoption of new designs, improved information services and others may be subject to cost-benefit analysis. Extreme weather and climate change costs and risks represent a new type of item, which apparently has to be dealt with also in project appraisal. A fully established procedure does not exist, although some basic principles have been introduced in analytical format. There is a lack of models to estimate extreme weather impacts and consequences and how to adapt to those costs. Optimising the efforts in maintenance and new design standards is even further away, but constitutes an overwhelming task. In this respect, new approaches and ways of thinking in preserving asset’s residual value, return periods, sustainability and equity and formal methods supplementing cost-benefit analysis are put forward. The paper concludes with a call for the need for more integrated management of transport systems. In particular, it is recognised that the different stages of transport system planning pose their own challenges when assessing the costs and benefits of policy measures, strategies and operational decisions. 相似文献
5.
Risk assessment of natural hazards is often based on the actual or forecast weather situation. For estimating such climate-related risks, it is important to obtain weather data as frequently as possible. One commonly used climate interpolation routine is DAYMET, which in its current form is not able to update its database for periods of less than a year. In this paper, we report the construction of a new climate database with a standard interface and implement a framework for providing daily updated weather data for online daily weather interpolations across regions. We re-implement the interpolation routines from DAYMET to be compliant with the data handling in the new framework. We determine the optimal number of stations used in two possible interpolation routines, assess the error bounds using an independent validation dataset and compare the results with a previous validation study based on the original DAYMET implementation. Mean absolute errors are 1°C for maximum and minimum temperature, 28 mm for precipitation, 3.2 MJ/m² for solar radiation and 1 hPa for vapour pressure deficit, which is in the range of the original DAYMET routine. Finally, we provide an example application of the methodology and derive a fire danger index for a 1 km grid over Austria. 相似文献
6.
Climate change alters global food systems, especially agriculture and fisheries—significant aspects of the livelihoods and food security of populations. The 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report identified Southeast Asia as the most vulnerable coastal region in the world, and highlighted the potential distribution of impacts and risks of climate change in the region. While climate hazards may differ across geographical regions, the impact of climate extremes on food production will affect marginal farmers, fishers and poor urban consumers disproportionately, as they have limited capacities to adapt to and recover from extreme weather events. Governments and other stakeholders need to respond to climate extremes and incorporate adaptation into national development plans. Unfortunately, there is still limited peer-review publication on the subject matter. This paper presents some findings from research on observed and projected loss and damage inflicted by climate extremes on agricultural crops in Southeast Asia. 相似文献
7.
Numerous modeling approaches are available to provide insight into the relationship between climate change and groundwater recharge. However, several aspects of how hydrological model choice and structure affect recharge predictions have not been fully explored, unlike the well-established variability of climate model chains—combination of global climate models (GCM) and regional climate models (RCM). Furthermore, the influence on predictions related to subsoil parameterization and the variability of observation data employed during calibration remain unclear. This paper compares and quantifies these different sources of uncertainty in a systematic way. The described numerical experiment is based on a heterogeneous two-dimensional reference model. Four simpler models were calibrated against the output of the reference model, and recharge predictions of both reference and simpler models were compared to evaluate the effect of model structure on climate-change impact studies. The results highlight that model simplification leads to different recharge rates under climate change, especially under extreme conditions, although the different models performed similarly under historical climate conditions. Extreme weather conditions lead to model bias in the predictions and therefore must be considered. Consequently, the chosen calibration strategy is important and, if possible, the calibration data set should include climatic extremes in order to minimise model bias introduced by the calibration. The results strongly suggest that ensembles of climate projections should be coupled with ensembles of hydrogeological models to produce credible predictions of future recharge and with the associated uncertainties. 相似文献
8.
John E. Thornes 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):570-580
The visual turn presents new challenges and methodologies for the pursuit of geography as we seek to communicate our ideas and understanding within and beyond the discipline. This paper attempts to show the potential importance of visual culture within a field that we may call cultural climatology. Cultural climatology seeks to explore the dialectic between society and atmosphere, weather and climate at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. A new visual approach to cultural climatology is presented as a possible way of stimulating conversations across the divide between the social and physical sciences. Images and visualisation assert their presence in the understanding, modelling and communication of many nature/culture debates, highlighting a need both for visual literacy across geography, and for social and physical scientists to share their visual methodologies. Cultural climatologists, like other scientists, need visual methodologies for both the critical construction and deconstruction of the images they wish to present and with which they are confronted. To illustrate the importance of visual literacy for cultural climatologists this paper introduces a sample of works from three artists: Constable, Monet and Eliasson. It shows how an exploration of their work (via a theory of pictures) could help to provide: firstly a methodology for understanding the cultural symbolism of skies and weather; secondly an assessment of the urban atmosphere in London at the turn of the 20th century and thirdly an example of the effective representation of atmosphere, weather and climate involving public participation and understanding. Lessons learned from deconstructing these works of art will then be used to suggest improvements in the visualisation of weather in the production and consumption of weather forecasts (thus, picturing theory). 相似文献
9.
Analysis of human risks due to dam-break floods—part 1: a new model based on Bayesian networks 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Dam breaks have catastrophic consequences for human lives. This paper presents a new human risk analysis model (HURAM) using Bayesian networks for estimating human risks due to dam-break floods. A Bayesian network is constructed according to a logic structure of loss-of-life mechanisms. The nodes (parameters) and the arcs (inter-relationships) of the network are quantified with historical data, existing models and physical analyses. A dataset of 343 dam-failure cases with records of fatality is compiled for this purpose. Comparison between two existing models and the new model is made to test the new model. Finally, sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the important parameters that lead to loss of life. The new model is able to take into account a large number of important parameters and their inter-relationships in a systematic structure; include the uncertainties of these parameters and their inter-relationships; incorporate information derived from physical analysis, empirical models and historical data; and update the predictions when information in specific cases is available. The application of this model to the study of human risks in a specific dam-break case is presented in a companion paper. 相似文献
10.
中国沙漠物源研究:回顾与展望 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
沙漠物源研究不仅在风沙地貌学上有重大的理论和实践意义,而且对联结大气粉尘排放、黄土堆积、气候系统和海洋生物地球化学循环也有重要价值。在简要回顾中国沙漠研究的基础上,梳理了中国沙漠物源研究的理论、方法和主要成果,结合国际上沉积物物源分析的趋向,指出目前世界沙漠物源的研究都是基于沉积物组份属性统计的反演模型,这种研究范式在数据获取、处理与解释方面存在缺陷,如沉积物的取样设计与测试分析、未消除"粒级依赖"对沉积物组份影响、数据未进行对数变换、忽视Dickinson图解应用的前提条件等。提出今后中国沙漠物源研究的方向:①采用正确统一的取样设计和分析方法对各沙漠的沉积物组份属性进行系统研究,建立中国沙漠沉积物组份的属性数据库;②选择若干典型沙漠,利用其周边山地详尽的地质构造、母岩和气候数据,定量构建沉积物生成的正演模型,模拟源区生成沉积物的数量、成分和结构,并用建成的沉积物组份属性数据验证和校正;③定量评估河流冲积物、冲积-湖积物、洪积-冲积物和基岩风化的残积、坡积物对中国各沙漠物源的贡献率与迁移路径,研究中国各沙漠中细颗粒物质的形成机制,对比中国沙漠与低纬度沙漠物源的形成机制;④定量研究历史和地质时间尺度沙漠-黄土-深海沉积物物源的内在联系及其驱动因素,建立陆地-大气-海洋物质循环的机理模型。 相似文献
11.
This study investigated the changes of high temperature events during important growing period of rice (graining filling to maturity) of 2021-2050 due to climate change. Future climate scenarios were HadGEM2-ES simulation with RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission pathways. Relationship between high temperature and yield change was established from historical weather and field observations during 1981-2009 period. The impacts of high temperatures on China’s rice production up to 2050 were assessed by applying deduced regression models to climate scenarios. Key messages drawn from this exercise include: ①High temperature event exhibited gradual increase from 2021 to 2050 under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, characterized by increased number of high temperature days (HSD), rising accumulated temperature with Tmax greater than 35 ℃ (HDD), and increased lasting days of high temperature (CHD). The HSD and HDD increased substantially in double rice cropping system of South China, single rice cropping system of Yangtze River Basin and rice area of Northeast China. ②High temperature hotspot was located near the border between Hunan and Hubei during 1961-2000, and might move towards northeast in the period of 2021-2050. ③Except the Northeast, China’s rice production suffered most from increased HDD during grain filling to maturity, indicated by significant negative and linear relationship between yield and HDD, whereas rice in Northeast China was subject to the increase of SDD during grain filling to maturity, with a significant and quadratic relationship between the yield and SDD. ④Compared to the high temperature risks during 1961-1990, climate change would increase the risks in majority of the rice area, especially in Hubei and Anhui-the central portion of Yangtze River Basin rice area, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan-south China double rice area, and south part of Northeast China single rice area. 相似文献
12.
The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change on the drought and flood risks of a multipurpose dam. To achieve this, A2 climate change scenarios of RegCM3 were collected about Chungju Dam in Korea. To analyze drought risks, weather data obtained by the statistical downscaling method were entered to produce runoff series by runoff modeling and water balance was analyzed based on water use scenarios to review changes in the storage volume under climate change. To analyze flood risks, changes in water levels of the dam in future flood seasons were reviewed based on the current dam operation method. The results of the review indicated that both the drought and the flood risks of the dam would increase in the future. The reason was considered to be the movement of the flood season’s runoff characteristics from July and August to August and September because of climate change. Therefore, for climate change adaptation planning, not only quantitative changes in hydrologic values but also changes in temporal characteristics should be considered and given importance. 相似文献
13.
Heat Wave Hazards: An Overview of Heat Wave Impacts in Canada 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
Extreme heat events are natural hazards affecting Canada and many other regions of the world. This paper presents an overview of the issues involved in defining heat waves and harmful hot weather events, followed by a spatial and historical overview of heat waves across Canada, and an assessment of heat wave adaptation potential in selected cities. The Prairies, Southern Ontario, and areas in the St. Lawrence River Valley of both Ontario and Quebec demonstrate the highest temperatures and most frequent occurrences of heat waves, with minimal effects in the North, Pacific Coast, and Maritimes. Montreal frequently experiences extreme heat, and based on its low air conditioning rates and older, high-density housing, it demonstrates limited potential for adaptation to heat events. A scientific assessment was done to identify the effects of heat waves on various sectors of Canadian life including agriculture, livestock, fisheries, construction, transportation, utilities, the environment, and human health. Heat stress has been linked to excess human mortality and illness, violent behaviour, drought, forest fires, tornadoes, decreased agricultural and livestock productivity, construction and transportation difficulties, and reduced electrical power supply. Despite limited research on heat waves in Canada, this study demonstrates that the impacts of heat are profound and far-reaching. 相似文献
14.
新疆喀什西部新一代天气雷达产品的冰雹预警指标研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
2010年以来喀什地区冰雹频繁,严重危害当地农业生产. 通过整理分析2009-2012年喀什新一代天气雷达监测资料,结合我国中东部地区基于雷达监测的冰雹预警指标,经过对喀什西部的18次冰雹天气过程中新一代天气雷达监测预警指标的分析,归纳出了喀什西部新一代雷达产品的冰雹预警指标：（1）组合反射率≥50 dBz;（2）回波顶高≥9 km;（3）云体垂直液态水含量≥20 kg·m-2. 根据该预警指标对喀什西部2011-2012年冰雹过程进行回报预警,准确率达到84.6%. 以有详细降雹时间记录的14次冰雹过程为例,分析喀什西部基于雷达监测产品的冰雹预警时效,14次个例中冰雹预警时效平均为27 min. 选取2012年5月13日、5月23日和2013年6月18日3次强冰雹过程个例,分析冰雹出现前后喀什新一代天气雷达的连续监测资料表明：3次过程中降雹开始时间对应雷达监测值达到最大（高）值时刻;组合反射率与回波顶高首先达到预警指标,垂直液态含水量达到预警指标的时间滞后11~19 min;3项雷达产品均达到冰雹预警指标的时间比实际发布冰雹预警时间早7~17 min,喀什西部冰雹预警时效潜力可以增加到30 min以上. 在喀什西部,应用新一代天气雷达监测产品开展冰雹实时预警业务是可行的,对提高当地冰雹灾害防御能力提供了有力的技术支持. 相似文献
15.
以两种植被数据为基础,分别利用区域和全球气候模式对过去300年土地利用和地表覆盖变化的气候效应进行了模拟研究。结果表明,耕地面积不断扩大所造成的自然植被破坏可能对区域性气候产生显著影响。通过对不同时期植被特征下地面温度、降水和低层大气环流的比较分析发现,中国东部地区耕地取代自然植被后,全年平均温度有所降低,且存在明显季节差异。植被退化地区的夏季温度有明显升高而冬季温度则显著降低; 同时夏季降水和850hPa风场发生显著变化： 夏季降水明显减少,而这一结果与低层(850hPa)大气环流的反气旋性增强相联系,即植被退化使中国东部夏季风环流减弱,这与目前观测事实是一致的。土地利用引起的地表覆盖的变化可能是东亚季风减弱的原因之一。 相似文献
16.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2022,13(4):101385
Accurate modeling of urban climate is essential to predict potential environmental risks in cities. Urban datasets, such as urban land use and urban canopy parameters (UCPs), are key input data for urban climate models and largely affect their performance. However, access to reliable urban datasets is a challenge, especially in fast urbanizing countries. In this study, we developed a high-resolution national urban dataset in China (NUDC) for the WRF/urban modeling system and evaluated its effect on urban climate modeling. Specifically, an optimization method based on building morphology was proposed to classify urban land use types. The key UCPs, including building height and width, street width, surface imperviousness, and anthropogenic heat flux, were calculated for both single-layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) and multiple-layer Building Energy Parameterization (BEP). The results show that the derived morphological-based urban land use classification could better reflect the urban characteristics, compared to the socioeconomic-function-based classification. The UCPs varied largely in spatial within and across the cities. The integration of the developed urban land use and UCPs datasets significantly improved the representation of urban canopy characteristics, contributing to a more accurate modeling of near-surface air temperature, humidity, and wind in urban areas. The UCM performed better in the modeling of air temperature and humidity, while the BEP performed better in the modeling of wind speed. The newly developed NUDC can advance the study of urban climate and improve the prediction of potential urban environmental risks in China. 相似文献
17.
The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China (Ningxia), one of main agriculture areas in northwest China, has been severely affected by drought. Based on observed meteorological data, outputs of 20 global climate models and drought disaster data, future climate change and relevant drought hazard in the twenty-first century were projected in Ningxia, with the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5; the risks of people, crop, and agriculture economy to drought disasters are quantitatively assessed, with the application of physical vulnerability curve models, probability distribution functions and Monte Carlo simulation method. It is found that the climate in Ningxia is likely to have a warming and wetting tendency in the twenty-first century. The extent of drought hazard is likely to increase. The increase rate is greater under RCP4.5 than that under RCP2.6. In general, the risks of population, crop, and agriculture to drought disasters are likely to increase in Ningxia in the twenty-first century. The magnitude of increase is likely to reach the greatest in the immediate term (2016–2035), followed by the increase in the medium term (2046–2065), and the long term (2081–2100). In comparison with RCP2.6, the drought disaster risks under the scenario of RCP4.5 are likely to increase further in three periods of the twenty-first century. The findings of this work have potential to provide data support for drought disaster risk management and support risk-based decision-making.
相似文献18.
Wildfires are a major natural disaster that can threaten the safe and stable operation of overhead transmission lines. Compared with large-area forest fires, transmission-line wildfires usually cover a small area and spread rapidly, making monitoring accuracy and real-time requirements of high priority. Wildfire monitoring based on satellite remote sensing has advantages in terms of monitoring-range width and the capacity for real-time monitoring; however, the detection threshold changes dynamically due to the influences of climate, geography, weather, and other factors that affect monitoring accuracy. To focus on small-area wildfires near overhead transmission lines, we developed a partition dynamic threshold calculation method based on time-series prediction. Basic thresholds are obtained based on a large number of historical values, followed by partitioning one of these values according to digital elevation model data and subsequent correction. Compared with conventional constant-threshold monitoring methods, our proposed method significantly reduced missed and false detection rates. Additionally, to improve fire-spot localization to the overhead transmission-line towers, we developed a tower-location algorithm based on block searching. Compared with the traditional traversal algorithm, our algorithm enabled a 15,000-fold increase in operation speed. These improvements will significantly enhance the monitoring of transmission-line wildfires, which are highly reliant upon alarm speed. 相似文献
19.
The Tous dam disaster of 1982 and the origins of integrated flood risk management in Spain 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The failure of the Tous dam in 1982 caused one of the most important socio-natural disasters in Spain during the twentieth century. That event triggered a paradigm change in the way disaster risks were perceived and managed, not only locally, but also at multiple levels of governance. Fifteen interviews with relevant stakeholders, content analysis of scientific literature, and review of historical and media accounts indicate that the collapse of the Tous dam had the two major effects. First, it prompted a process of institutional development, which led to the growth, and increase in complexity of the organizations involved both in vertical and horizontal communication of disaster risk reduction. Second, actions taken and experiences gained in dealing with disaster risk reduction in the Tous area were used as a benchmark to develop new strategies, as well as new mechanisms for communication and planning in other territories and other risk domains in Spain. This paper also identified the three main stages in the evolution of disaster risk reduction planning in the area: (1) After the collapse of the Tous dam, disaster risk reduction strategies in Spain focused on improving preparedness in order to reduce short-term risks. (2) Disaster management in the 1990s was strongly influenced by international initiatives, which emphasized the contextualization of risk and the importance in long-term disaster risk reduction measures such as land-use planning. (3) The European Water Framework Directive (2000) and, more recently, the Floods Directive (2007) are exerting a strong influence on the development of a new Spanish flood policy that focuses on preventive measures. However, this process is far from complete and many issues still remain unresolved: dealing with different domains of risk action, integrating concepts of ecological resilience and climate change, and promoting public awareness and effective participation. 相似文献
20.
Qing Sun Zaiqiang Yang Xianghong Che Wei Han Fangmin Zhang Fang Xiao 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(1):69-88
The growth of early rice is often threatened by a phenomenon known as Grain Buds Cold, a period of anomalously cold temperatures during the booting and flowering stage. As a high yield loss due to Grain Buds Cold will lead to increasing insurance premiums, quantifying the impact of weather on crop yield is crucial to the design of weather index insurance. In this study, we propose a new approach to the estimation of premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance. A 2-year artificial controlled experiment was utilized to develop logarithmic and linear yield loss models. Additionally, incorporating 51 years of meteorological data, an information diffusion model was used to calculate the probability of different durations of Grain Buds Cold, ranging from 3 to 20 days. The results show that the pure premium rates determined by a logarithmic yield loss model exhibit lower risk and greater efficiency than those determined by a linear yield loss model. The premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance were found to fluctuate between 7.085 and 10.151% at the county level in Jiangxi Province, while the premium rates based on the linear yield loss model were higher (ranging from 7.787 to 11.672%). Compared with common statistical methods, the artificial controlled experiment presented below provides a more robust, reliable and accurate way of analyzing the relationship between yield and a single meteorological factor. At the same time, the minimal data requirements of this experimental approach indicate that this method could be very important in regions lacking historical yield and climate data. Estimating weather index insurance accurately will help farmers address extreme cold weather risk under changing climatic conditions. 相似文献