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1.
Summary In dry farming areas, where rainfall is the only source of water for crops, changes in both quantity and distribution of rainfall during the year could affect the economy of an area. Inter-annual variability makes it difficult to assess rainfall variability, especially in areas with Mediterranean climate. In this paper, interannual rainfall variations in the Alt Penedès region were evaluated using 24-h rainfall records at Vilafranca del Penedès (1889–1999) and at Sant Sadurni d’Anoia (1960–1999). The distribution patterns during the year and their changes over the time were also analysed. Rainfall data were normalised and the values corresponding to the percentiles 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and 0.9 were calculated to analyse whether they were very dry, dry, normal, wet and very wet periods. Annual rainfall and the rainfall recorded during the main rainfall periods during the year and its trend were analysed. Annual rainfall did not show a clear tendency, although during the last decade reduced interannual variability occurred. The percentage of dry years did not increase but the percentage of wet and very wet years decreased. During the last decade, an increase of dry spring seasons andwet autumn seasons was observed, even in normal or wetyears. These changes could affect the timing of whencrops receive water and could therefore affect their yields. Received May 31, 2000/Revised February 26, 2001  相似文献   

2.
Summary An analysis of decadal and long-term patterns of rainfall has been carried out using a combination of raingauge and gridded rainfall datasets, for the entire Amazon basin and for its northern and southern sub-basins. The study covers the period 1929–98. Rainfall variability and variations in circulation and sea surface temperature fields have been analysed in more detail for the period 1950–98. Negative rainfall trends were identified for the entire Amazon basin, while at the regional level there is a negative trend in northern Amazonia and positive trend in southern Amazonia. Decadal time scale variations in rainfall have been discovered, with periods of relatively drier and wetter conditions, with different behaviour in northern and southern Amazonia. Spectral analyses show decadal time scale variations in southern Amazonia, while northern Amazonia exhibits both interannual and decadal scale variations. Shifts in the rainfall regime in both sections of the Amazon basin were identified as occurring in the mid-1940s and 1970s. After 1975–76, northern Amazonia received less rainfall than before 1975. Changes in the circulation and oceanic fields after 1975 suggest an important role of the warming of the tropical central and eastern Pacific on the decreasing rainfall in northern Amazonia, due to more frequent and intense El Niño events during the relatively dry period 1975–98.  相似文献   

3.
徐志清  范可 《大气科学》2012,36(5):879-888
印度洋热力状况是影响全球气候变化和亚洲季风变异的一个重要的因素,但以往研究更多关注热带印度洋海温的变化,对南印度洋中高纬地区海温变化关注不够,由此限制了我们对印度洋的全面认识.本文研究了年际尺度上整个印度洋海温异常主导模态的特征及其对我国东部地区夏季降水的可能影响过程,以期望为气候变异研究及预测提供理论依据.研究结果表明:全印度洋海温异常年际变率的主导模态特征是在南印度洋副热带地区海温异常呈现西南—东北反向变化的偶极子模态,西极子位于马达加斯加以东南洋面,东极子位于澳大利亚以西洋面;同时,热带印度洋海温异常与东极子一致.当西极子为正的海温异常,东极子、热带印度洋为负异常时定义为正的印度洋海温异常年际变率模态;反之,则为负的印度洋海温异常年际变率模态.从冬至春,印度洋海温异常年际变率模态具有较好的季节持续性;与我国长江中游地区夏季降水显著负相关,而与我国华南地区夏季降水显著正相关.其可能的影响过程为:对于正的冬、春季印度洋海温异常年际变率模态事件,印度洋地区异常纬向风的经向大气遥相关使得热带印度洋盛行西风异常,导致春、夏季海洋性大陆对流减弱,使夏季西太平洋副热带高压强度偏弱、位置偏东偏北,造成华南地区夏季降水增多,长江中游地区降水减少;反之亦然.同时,印度洋海温异常年际变率模态可通过改变印度洋和孟加拉湾向长江中游地区的水汽输送而影响其夏季降水.  相似文献   

4.
Previous studies have linked interannual variability of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity in the North Atlantic basin(NA)to Sahelian rainfall,vertical shear of the environmental flow,and relative sea surface temperature(SST).In this study,the contribution of TC track changes to the interannual variations of intense hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin is evaluated through numerical experiments.It is found that that observed interannual variations of the frequency of intense hurricanes during the period 1958–2017 are dynamically consistent with changes in the large-scale ocean/atmosphere environment.Track changes can account for~50%of the interannual variability of intense hurricanes,while no significant difference is found for individual environmental parameters between active and inactive years.The only significant difference between active and inactive years is in the duration of TC intensification in the region east of 60°W.The duration increase is not due to the slow-down of TC translation.In active years,a southeastward shift of the formation location in the region east of 60°W causes TCs to take a westward prevailing track,which allows TCs to have a longer opportunity for intensification.On the other hand,most TCs in inactive years take a recurving track,leading to a shorter duration of intensification.This study suggests that the influence of track changes should be considered to understand the basin-wide intensity changes in the North Atlantic basin on the interannual time scale.  相似文献   

5.
Wavelet analysis is used to study the interannual and interdecadal variations of rainfall in China and atmospheric circulation factors, including the key atmospheric oscillations, W, C, E patterns and subtropical high. Regression analysis and correlation analysis are both used to study the relationship of atmospheric circulation factors and China rainfall on different time scale and spatial scale. The results are as follows: (1) The variations of atmospheric circulation and rainfall in China are characterized by interannual and interdecadal scales. The variations of atmospheric circulation and rainfall are composed of interannual and interdecadal variations. It is necessary to separate those two time scales when climate changes and forecast are studied. (2) The variations of China rainfall are due to the interaction of multi-factors rather than single factors. The marked factors which influence the interannual and interdecadal variations are various. Subtropical high is one of the marked factors which influence interannual variations of rainfall, while AO, NAO, and NPO are one of the marked factors which influence interdecadal variations of rainfall. (3) The longer the time scale is, and the larger the spatial scale is, and the more remarkable the relationships between atmospheric circulation and rainfall are.  相似文献   

6.
We investigate the effect of changes in daily and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation on yields simulated by the CERES-Wheat model at two locations in the central Great Plains. Changes in variability were effected by adjusting parameters of the Richardson daily weather generator. Two types of changes in precipitation were created: one with both intensity and frequency changed; and another with change only in persistence. In both types mean total monthly precipitation is held constant. Changes in daily (and interannual) variability of temperature result in substantial changes in the mean and variability of simulated wheat yields. With a doubling of temperature variability, large reductions in mean yield and increases in variability of yield result primarily from crop failures due to winter kill at both locations. Reduced temperature variability has little effect. Changes in daily precipitation variability also resulted in substantial changes in mean and variability of yield. Interesting interactions of the precipitation variability changes with the contrasting base climates are found at the two locations. At one site where soil moisture is not limiting, mean yield decreased and variability of yield increased with increasing precipitation variability, whereas mean yields increased at the other location, where soil moisture is limiting. Yield changes were similar for the two different types of precipitation variability change investigated. Compared to an earlier study for the same locations wherein variability changes were effected by altering observed time series, and the focus was on interannual variability, the present results for yield changes are much more substantial. This study demonstrates the importance of taking into account change in daily (and interannual) variability of climate when analyzing the effect of climate change on crop yields.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

7.
春季欧亚大陆地表气温变化特征的气候意义   总被引：11，自引：3，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文
研究了春季欧亚大陆地表气温的年际变化及其相联系的环流场特征,发现春季欧亚大陆地表气温年际变化呈现为大陆尺度的南北跷跷板式的空间分布特征, 即当中高纬度地表气温为正距平时,副热带地区则为负距平,反之亦然。这种空间分布型代表了欧亚大陆中高纬度地表气温年际变化的主要特征。进一步的研究表明,这种变化与前期冬季北大西洋涛动（NAO）有着显著的正相关,而与同期的NAO无关。同时,欧亚大陆地表气温异常存在着明显的从冬到夏的持续性。与东亚初夏气候变化关系的研究表明,春季欧亚大陆地表气温的变化通过影响鄂霍次克高压的变化进一步影响初夏梅雨的变化。当春季欧亚大陆中高纬度地表气温为正距平时,鄂霍次克高压偏强,初夏梅雨较活跃,反之亦然。  相似文献   

8.
Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The study of climate changes in India and search for robust evidences are issues of concern specially when it is known that poor people are very vulnerable to climate changes. Due to the vast size of India and its complex geography, climate in this part of the globe has large spatial and temporal variations. Important weather events affecting India are floods and droughts, monsoon depressions and cyclones, heat waves, cold waves, prolonged fog and snowfall. Results of this comprehensive study based on observed data and model reanalyzed fields indicate that in the last century, the atmospheric surface temperature in India has enhanced by about 1 and 1.1°C during winter and post-monsoon months respectively. Also decrease in the minimum temperature during summer monsoon and its increase during post-monsoon months have created a large difference of about 0.8°C in the seasonal temperature anomalies which may bring about seasonal asymmetry and hence changes in atmospheric circulation. Opposite phases of increase and decrease in the minimum temperatures in the southern and northern regions of India respectively have been noticed in the interannual variability. In north India, the minimum temperature shows sharp decrease of its magnitude between 1955 and 1972 and then sharp increase till date. But in south India, the minimum temperature has a steady increase. The sea surface temperatures (SST) of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal also show increasing trend. Observations indicate occurrence of more extreme temperature events in the east coast of India in the recent past. During summer monsoon months, there is a decreasing (increasing) trend in the frequency of depressions (low pressure areas). In the last century the frequency of occurrence of cyclonic storms shows increasing trend in the month of November. In addition there is increase in the number of severe cyclonic storms crossing Indian Coast. Analysis of rainfall amount during different seasons indicate decreasing tendency in the summer monsoon rainfall over Indian landmass and increasing trend in the rainfall during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon months.  相似文献   

9.
 This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120 °W–60 °W region using selected historical files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System on the period 1968–1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress data over the tropical Atlantic (30 °N–20 °S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall. It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal well observed in the last 20–30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific. This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical processes at the ocean/atmosphere interface that create anomaly gradients in the meridional plane in a way which tends to alter the north–south movement of the seasonal cycle. This appears to be consistent with the intrinsic non-dipole character of the tropical Atlantic surface variability at the interannual time step and over the recent period, but produces abnormal amplitude and/or delayed excursions of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Connections with continental rainfall are approached through three (NCEP/NCAR and observed) rainfall indexes over the Nordeste region in Brazil, and the Guinea and Sahel zones in West Africa. These indices appear to be significantly linked to the SST component of the coupled modes only when the two Atlantic modes+the ENSO-like Nino3 index are taken into account in the regressions. This suggests that thermal forcing of continental rainfall is particularly sensitive to the linear combinations of some basic SST patterns, in particular to those that create meridional thermal gradients. The first mode in the Atlantic is associated with transequatorial pressure, moist static energy and precipitable water anomaly patterns which can explain abnormal location of the ITCZ particularly in northern winter, and hence rainfall variations in Nordeste. The second mode is more associated with in-phase variations of the same variables near the southern edge of the ITCZ, particularly in the Gulf of Guinea during the northern spring and winter. It is primarily linked to the amplitude and annual phase of the ITCZ excursions and thus to rainfall variations in Guinea. Connections with Sahel rainfall are less clear due to the difficulty for the model to correctly capture interannual variability over that region but the second Atlantic mode and the ENSO-like Pacific variability are clearly involved in the Sahel climate interannual fluctuations: anomalous dry (wet) situations tend to occur when warmer (cooler) waters are present in the eastern Pacific and the gulf of Guinea in northern summer which contribute to create a northward (southward) transequatorial anomaly gradient in sea level pressure over West Africa. Received: 14 April 1998 / Accepted: 24 December 1998  相似文献   

10.
A detailed analysis is undertaken of the Atlantic-European climate using data from 500-year-long proxy-based climate reconstructions, a long climate simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing, as well as two global and one regional climate change scenarios. The observed and simulated interannual variability and teleconnectivity are compared and interpreted in order to improve the understanding of natural climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales for the late Holocene. The focus is set on the Atlantic-European and Alpine regions during the winter and summer seasons, using temperature, precipitation, and 500 hPa geopotential height fields. The climate reconstruction shows pronounced interdecadal variations that appear to “lock” the atmospheric circulation in quasi-steady long-term patterns over multi-decadal periods controlling at least part of the temperature and precipitation variability. Different circulation patterns are persistent over several decades for the period 1500 to 1900. The 500-year-long simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing shows some substantial differences, with a more unsteady teleconnectivity behaviour. Two global scenario simulations indicate a transition towards more stable teleconnectivity for the next 100 years. Time series of reconstructed and simulated temperature and precipitation over the Alpine region show comparatively small changes in interannual variability within the time frame considered, with the exception of the summer season, where a substantial increase in interannual variability is simulated by regional climate models.  相似文献   

11.
Variations and change in south American streamflow   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
Long-term hydroclimatological records in tropical South America have been analyzed in order to determine whether or not there have been significant changes in the hydrological cycle. Streamflow data from several rivers in Peru, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela, as well as rainfall in Northeast Brazil have been used here for the study of long-term and interannual variations on hydrological conditions in different regions of South America. The Mann-Kendall statistical test is applied to the historical streamflow annual series in order to detect trends or changes in the mean. The Studentt-test is also applied to study the relationship between interannual variability and the magnitude of change and length of data required to identify a statistically significant trend.It follows from the statistical analysis of the currently available historical river data set that there is no clear evidence of trend or change in the mean streamflow of South American rivers resulting from a climate change, even though significant trends towards drier conditions have been found for rivers in the Northwest coast of Peru and in eastern Brazil. Interannual variations characterized the hydrology of tropical South America, in association with the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation. The change required to identify a statistically significant variation in the mean is directly proportional to the interannual variability. The effects of Amazon deforestation are not noticeable on the 1903-92 interannual variability of the Rio Negro series at Manaus nor in rainfall time series.  相似文献   

12.
Agriculture in India is highly sensitive to climatic variations particularly to rainfall and temperature; therefore, any change in rainfall and temperature will influence crop yields. An understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution and changing patterns in climatic variables is important for planning and management of natural resources. Time series analysis of climate data can be a very valuable tool to investigate its variability pattern and, maybe, even to predict short- and long-term changes in the series. In this study, the sub-divisional rainfall data of India during the period 1871 to 2016 has been investigated. One of the widely used powerful nonparametric techniques namely wavelet analysis was used to decompose and de-noise the series into time–frequency component in order to study the local as well as global variation over different scales and time epochs. On the decomposed series, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) models were applied and by means of inverse wavelet transform, the prediction of rainfall for different sub-divisions was obtained. To this end, empirical comparison was carried out toward forecast performance of the approaches namely Wavelet-ANN, Wavelet-ARIMA, and ARIMA. It is reported that Wavelet-ANN and Wavelet-ARIMA approach outperforms the usual ARIMA model for forecasting of rainfall for the data under consideration.  相似文献   

13.
华北盛夏降水年代际变化与南半球环流异常的关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和中国160个台站降水资料,分析了华北盛夏降水与南半球马斯克林高压、澳大利亚高压的年际关系。结果表明,华北盛夏降水和马高、澳高在年际变化尺度上都有着显著的负相关关系,且这种关系存在年代际变化,并重点分析了与华北盛夏降水年代际变化相对应的南半球环流异常型的特征。  相似文献   

14.
Our central goal is to determine the importance of including both mean and variability changes in climate change scenarios in an agricultural context. By adapting and applying a stochastic weather generator, we first tested the sensitivity of the CERES-Wheat model to combinations of mean and variability changes of temperature and precipitation for two locations in Kansas. With a 2°C increase in temperature with daily (and interannual) variance doubled, yields were further reduced compared to the mean only change. In contrast, the negative effects of the mean temperature increase were greatly ameliorated by variance decreased by one-half. Changes for precipitation are more complex, since change in variability naturally attends change in mean, and constraining the stochastic generator to mean change only is highly artificial. The crop model is sensitive to precipitation variance increases with increased mean and variance decreases with decreased mean. With increased mean precipitation and a further increase in variability Topeka (where wheat cropping is not very moisture limited) experiences decrease in yield after an initial increase from the 'mean change only case. At Goodland Kansas, a moisture-limited site where summer fallowing is practiced, yields are decreased with decreased precipitation, but are further decreased when variability is further reduced. The range of mean and variability changes to which the crop model is sensitive are within the range of changes found in regional climate modeling (RegCM) experiments for a CO2 doubling (compared to a control run experiment). We then formed two types of climate change scenarios based on the changes in climate found in the control and doubled CO2 experiments over the conterminous U. S. of RegCM: (1) one using only mean monthly changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation; and (2) another that included these mean changes plus changes in daily (and interannual) variability. The scenarios were then applied to the CERES-Wheat model at four locations (Goodland, Topeka, Des Moines, Spokane) in the United States. Contrasting model responses to the two scenarios were found at three of the four sites. At Goodland, and Des Moines mean climate change increased mean yields and decreased yield variability, but the mean plus variance climate change reduced yields to levels closer to their base (unchanged) condition. At Spokane mean climate change increased yields, which were somewhat further increased with climate variability change. Three key aspects that contribute to crop response are identified: the marginality of the current climate for crop growth, the relative size of the mean and variance changes, and timing of these changes. Indices for quantifying uncertainty in the impact assessment were developed based on the nature of the climate scenario formed, and the magnitude of difference between model and observed values of relevant climate variables.  相似文献   

15.
Located at the southern boundary of the tropical rainfall belt within the South Africa monsoon regime, Rodrigues Island, ～2500 km east of East Africa, is ideally located to investigate climatic changes over the southwest Indian Ocean(SWIO). In this study, we investigate the climatic controls of its modern interannual rainfall variability in terms of teleconnection and local effects. We find that increased rainfall over the SWIO tends to occur in association with anomalously warm(cold) SSTs over the equatorial central Pacific(Maritime Continent), resembling the central Pacific El Ni?o, closely linked with the Victoria mode in the North Pacific. Our analyses show that the low-level convergence induced by warm SST over the equatorial central Pacific leads to anomalous low-level divergence over the Maritime Continent and convergence over a large area surrounding the Rodrigues Island, which leads to increased rainfall over the SWIO during the rainy season. Meanwhile, the excited Rossby wave along the tropical Indian Ocean transports more water vapor from the tropical convergence zone into the SWIO via intensified northwest wind. Furthermore, positive feedback induced by the Rossby wave response to the increased rainfall in the region contributes to the large interannual variations over the SWIO.  相似文献   

16.
Treeline ecotones are regarded as sensitive monitors of the recent climatic warming. However, it has been suggested that their sensitivity depends more on changes in tree density than on treeline position. We study these processes and the effect of climate, mainly air temperature, on tree recruitment and recent treeline dynamics. We selected three relatively undisturbed sites in the Spanish Pyrenees, dominated by Pinusuncinata, and analyzed their recent dynamics at local spatial (0.3–0.5 ha) and short temporal scales (100–300 years). We wanted to establish whether higher temperature was the only climatic factor causing an upward shift of the studied alpine treelines. The data we report show that treelines were ascending until a period of high interannual variability in mean temperature started (1950–95). During the late twentieth century, treeline fluctuation was less sensitive to climate than was the change in tree density within the ecotone. Tree recruitment and treeline position responded to contrasting climatic signals; tree recruitment was favored by high March temperatures whereas treeline position ascended in response to warm springs. We found a negative relationship between mean treeline-advance rate and March temperature variability. According to our findings, if the interannual variability of March temperature increases, the probability of successful treeline ascent will decrease.  相似文献   

17.
A high-quality monthly pan evaporation dataset of 60 stations has been developed for monitoring long-term pan evaporation trends over Australia. The quality control process involved examination of historical station metadata together with an objective test comparing candidate series with neighboring stations. Identified points of discontinuity were located, including installations of bird guards, site relocations and changes in exposure. Appropriate inhomogeneity adjustments have been applied using established methods to produce the first homogeneous pan evaporation dataset for Australia. Analysis of these data reveals that Australian annual mean pan-evaporation shows large interannual variability with no trend over the 1970–2005 period. Previous studies using unadjusted data have shown a decline in pan evaporation, highlighting the importance of checking data for homogeneity before drawing conclusions about long-term trends. A strong inverse correlation is evident between all-Australian means of pan evaporation and rainfall, while a moderate positive correlation is found between pan evaporation and mean temperature. The positive correlations between mean temperature and pan evaporation that exist on the interannual time scales are not reflected in the long-term trends, highlighting that the mechanisms that are responsible for variations on the short and longer time scales are different. This result cautions against the expectation that large changes in potential evaporation are a natural consequence of global warming.  相似文献   

18.
This study investigates the projected changes in interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon and changes of ENSO-monsoon relationships in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and A2, respectively, by analyzing the simulated results of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) coupled models. The dynamical monsoon index (DMI) was adopted to describe the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon, and the standard dev...  相似文献   

19.
Climate variability is an important inherent characteristic of climate and it varies on all timescales. Through examination of temperature variability on multiple temporal scales at 63 stations over the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau （TP） during 1960-2008, we find decreasing trends in daily and intraannual temperature, especially in cold seasons （autumn and winter）. These changes are more sensitive than those in the eastern China coastal region at the same latitude and indicate an asymmetric change of temperature, with hourly, daily, and monthly trends in cold periods stronger than those in warm periods during the recent years. The variation of interannual temperature is complex, showing an increasing trend in autumn and winter and decreasing trend in spring and summer, which is similar to those in the northern polar region. The changes of multiscale variability of temperature are mainly related to changes of atmospheric water vapor, cloudiness, anthropogenic aerosols, monsoon-driven climate, and some local factors. To find the influences of local conditions on temperature variability, we analyze the effects of altitude, topography, and urbanization. The results show that elevation is strongly and positively related to diurnal temperature range （DTR） and slightly positively related to interannual temperature variability （IVT）, but intraannual temperature variability shows no clear elevation dependency. Topography and urbanization also play important roles in multiscale temperature variability. Finally, strong relationships are observed between temperature variability on each scale and different extreme indices.  相似文献   

20.
 A comparison is made between modelled (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) and observed (CRC and CRU dataset) annual and monthly precipitation over tropical Africa during the period 1958–1997. The split moving-windows dissimilarity analysis (SMWDA) is used to locate abrupt changes in rainfall time series. In the NCEP reanalysis data, we identify a main abrupt shift, which occurs in 1967 and concerns more than 50% of grid points. In the observation, this shift is only found over parts of tropical North Africa. Three other NCEP abrupt shifts (1975, 1983 and 1987) in the reanalysis shown by the SMWDA, each concerning about 20% of tropical Africa, are not identified in the observation. One hypothesis concerning the 1967 marked abrupt shift is a problem of data assimilation in the NCEP/NCAR model which generated artificial shifts in the time series. In view of this result, further comparisons have been restricted to the period 1968–1997. On a continental scale, while the CRC and NCEP mean seasonal rainfall patterns are almost the same, however, some regional features are not well reproduced. Using five regional rainfall indexes, the mean seasonal rainfall cycle is correctly reproduced, but the NCEP reanalysis generally underestimates the amounts during the rainy season. The NCEP reanalysis rainfall is closer to the observation when the region shows a single rainy season. The correlation values between NCEP and CRC interannual rainfall variations over the period 1968–1997 are very low and seldom significant. The NCEP four main structures of rainfall variability as deducted from rotated principal component analysis are not realistic at all and the associated time series are systematically dominated by a marked low-frequency variability not present in the observation. However, the main teleconnections between ENSO and African rainfall variations are fairly well reproduced, with a correct location of the main structures, but with lower correlation values than those found in the observation. Received: 22 September 1999 / Accepted: 10 May 2000  相似文献   

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