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1.
土地利用和气候变化对区域净初级生产力的影响 总被引：25，自引：1，他引：24
应用以遥感观测数据驱动的GLO-PEM模式模拟估计的中国北方20年的NPP数据同其20年气候数据结合,同时利用通过遥感宏观调查所得的两期土地利用数据,分析20年气候和土地利用变化对区域净初级生产力 (Net Primary Productivity,NPP) 的影响的时空特征。分析结果表明,20年来研究区域年均温度显著增加 (年均增温0.064 oC),年降水量明显减少 (年降水减少率为1.49 mm/年),NPP以减少趋势为主 (年减少率6.9 TgC)。研究区域NPP的变化受旬 (月) 均温和旬 (月) 降水量和季节温度和季节降水的变化影响显著。季节NPP同季节降水和温度的相关性在空间上同植被覆盖表现出高度的一致性,其相关系数大小随着不同植被覆盖类型变化而变化。通过分析可见,就整个研究区来说,发生土地利用变化的区域仅占整个研究区域的5.45%, 气候对整个研究区域NPP的影响占主导地位 (占了总影响量的90%);土地利用发生区域土地利用的作用占了绝对地位,土地利用的影响占了约97%。整个研究区域近20年来因为降水明显减少,温度显著升高,导致NPP明显下降,在两期土地利用间隔时间段内 (约10年) 因气候影响NPP减少了78 (±0.6) TgC。因为土地利用的变化导致NPP减少9 (±0.2) TgC。气候和土地利用共同作用是研究区域的NPP减少87 (±0.8) TgC。 相似文献
2.
土地利用和气候变化对区域净初级生产力影响 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
1IntroductionThe global change caused by the continuous increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases has threatened the existence of human beings, and the importance of carbon dioxide emissions as a major environmental issue of international concern has grown substantially in the world (IPCC, 2000). At the same time, the Kyoto Protocol, the first and only realistic plan for achieving a worldwide reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, has been passed. Since there are many uncertai… 相似文献
3.
1990~2000年中国土壤碳氮蓄积量与土地利用变化 总被引：52，自引：1，他引：51
基于2473个土壤剖面资料和1980年代末~1990年代末陆地卫星TM影像分析中国1990~2000年林地、草地、耕地之间的土地利用变化对土壤碳氮蓄积量的影响。IPCC建议的国家温室气体清单方法计算表明从1990~2000年中国林地、草地、耕地土壤 (30 cm) 有机碳氮库分别损失了77.6±35.2 TgC (1Tg = 106 t) 和5.6±2.6 TgN,年均损失约7.76 TgC/yr和0.56 TgN/yr,其中耕地土壤碳库分别增加了79.0±7.7 TgC 和9.0±0.7 TgN,草地土壤碳氮蓄积量分别损失了100.7±25.9 TgC和9.8±2.2 TgN,林地土壤碳氮蓄积量分别损失了55.9±17.0 TgC和4.9±1.1 TgN。同时根据中国6大行政区林地、耕地和草地之间的相互转换面积、土壤有机碳氮密度的变化率进行估算,表明土壤 (30 cm和100 cm) 有机碳氮蓄积量分别损失了53.7 TgC、5.1 TgN和99.5 TgC 、9.4 TgN。由于中国不同地区土地利用变化的空间格局差异显著,从而导致东北地区土壤碳氮蓄积量变化较大,而华东地区变化较小。 相似文献
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蒙古高原中部气候变化及影响因素比较研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
利用蒙古国中部6个气象站1940~2004年和中国内蒙古自治区中部6个气象站1951~2004年的温度和降水资料,对两地的气候变化及其影响因素作了对比研究。结果表明:20世纪90年代与60年代相比,中国内蒙古6站平均升温1.35℃,蒙古国6站上升1.13℃,2000~2004年与60年代相比:中国内蒙古6站上升1.89℃,蒙古国则为1.37℃,中国内蒙古6站的升温速率高于蒙古国6站。对温度变化趋势作突变性检验,结果表明:温度发生突变时间是纬度较高地区早于纬度较低的地区,大城市早于中小城镇,城市化对温度变化影响比较明显。相对于温度变化,降水变化没有显著性的突变,但有周期变化,中国内蒙古降水变化有2.8年周期,蒙古国有4年、8年的周期,这可能因为中国内蒙古降水水汽主要来源于太平洋,而蒙古国降水的水汽主要来源于北冰洋。 相似文献
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亚热带山地丘陵区植被NPP时空变化及其与气候因子的关系————以湖南省为例 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
以湖南省为研究区,采用250 m×250 m空间分辨率的MODIS-NDVI数据,结合相应时间段的气象数据,使用改进的CASA模型,模拟并分析该区域2000-2013年间的植被NPP的时空变化特征,并借助统计分析方法对不同土地覆盖类型中植被NPP的变化趋势及其显著性,NPP与气候因子的相关性进行量化分析.结果表明:① 该区域的净初级生产量年际变化特征明显,年净初级生产量分布在41.62~125.40 Tg C/yr之间,平均值为86.34 Tg C/yr,总体来看,14年间湖南省植被净初级生产量呈波动减少趋势,年际减少趋势为2.70 Tg C/yr;② NPP空间分布差异较大,基本特点是西高东低,南高北低,从西南向东北呈逐渐递减趋势,其中,各植被分区的NPP有明显差异;③ 2000-2013年,湖南省植被NPP呈极显著增加(slope >0,p < 0.01),显著增加(slope > 0,0.01 ≤ p < 0.05),无明显变化(p ≥ 0.05),极显著减少(slope < 0,p < 0.01)和显著减少(slope < 0,0.01 ≤ p < 0.05)的区域分别占总面积的比例为5.40%,2.02%,61.64%,16.79%和14.15%.植被NPP变化趋势总体上显示为减少的趋势,而不同土地覆盖类型的植被NPP变化趋势及显著性存在较大差异,其中草地的NPP变化趋势最为显著,接着依次是森林,其他土地,建设用地和农田;④ 分析不同土地覆盖类型的植被NPP对气候因子的响应,发现NPP与降水量之间的相关关系强于其与温度的相关关系. 相似文献
6.
中国东南部植被NPP的时空格局变化及其与气候的关系研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
基于2001~2010年MOD17A3年均NPP数据和气象站点气温、降水资料,利用GIS空间分析技术和数理统计方法研究中国东南部植被NPP的时空格局、动态变化及与气候要素的关系。结果表明,中国东南部植被年均NPP总体上呈现从南到北、由东至西逐渐减少的分布,不同植被类型的NPP存在明显差异,以常绿阔叶林最高,落叶针叶林最低。2001~2010年间,植被NPP整体上略有减少。空间上植被NPP在南部地区明显减少,而在北部地区明显增加。植被NPP与降水和气温的相关性均表现出明显的地域差异。 相似文献
7.
过去300年大兴安岭北部气候变化特征（英文） 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Greater Khingan Mountains(Daxinganling) are China's important ecological protective screen and also the region most sensitive to climate changes. To gain an in-depth understanding and reveal the climate change characteristic in this high-latitude, cold and data-insufficient region is of great importance to maintaining ecological safety and corresponding to global climate changes. In this article, the annual average temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration series were firstly constructed using tree-ring data and the meteorological observation data. Then, using the climate tendency rate method, moving-t-testing method, Yamamoto method and wavelet analysis method, we have investigated the climate changes in the region during the past 307 years. Results indicate that, since 1707, the annual average temperature increased significantly, the precipitation increased slightly and the sunshine duration decreased, with the tendency rates of 0.06℃/10 a, 0.79 mm/10 a and –5.15 h/10 a, respectively(P≤0.01). Since the 21 st century, the period with the greatest increase of the annual average temperature(also with the greatest increase of precipitation) corresponds to the period with greatest decrease of sunshine duration. Three sudden changes of the annual average temperature and sunshine duration occurred in this period while two sudden changes of precipitation occurred. The strong sudden-change years of precipitation and sunshine duration are basically consistent with the sudden-change years of annual average temperature, suggesting that in the mid-1860 s, the climatic sudden change or transition really existed in this region. In the time domain, the climatic series of this region exhibit obvious local variation characteristics. The annual average temperature and sunshine duration exhibit the periodic variations of 25 years while the precipitation exhibits a periodic variation of 20 years. Based on these periodic characteristics, one can infer that in the period from 2013 to 2030, the temperature will be at a high-temperature stage, the precipitation will be at an abundant-precipitation stage and the sunshine duration will be at an less-sunshine stage. In terms of spatial distribution, the leading distribution type of the annual average temperature in this region shows integrity, i.e., it is easily higher or lower in the whole region; and the second distribution type is more(or less) in the southwest parts and less(or more) in the northeast parts. Precipitation and sunshine duration exhibit complex spatial distribution and include fourspatial distribution types. The present study can provide scientific basis for the security investigation of homeland, ecological and water resources as well as economic development programming in China's northern borders. 相似文献
8.
Modeling net primary productivity of the terrestrial ecosystem in China from 1961 to 2005简 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
Net primary productivity （NPP） is the structure and function of the ecosystem. NPP can most important index that represents the be simulated by dynamic global vegetation models （DGVM）, which are designed to represent vegetation dynamics relative to environ- mental change. This study simulated the NPP of China＇s ecosystems based on the DGVM Integrated Biosphere Simulator （IBIS） with data on climate, soil, and topography. The appli- cability of IBIS in the NPP simulation of China＇s terrestrial ecosystems was verified first. Comparison with other relevant studies indicates that the range and mean value of simula- tions are generally within the limits of observations; the overall pattern and total annual NPP are close to the simulations conducted with other models. The simulations are also close to the NPP estimations based on remote sensing. Validation proved that IBIS can be utilized in the large-scale simulation of NPP in China＇s natural ecosystem. We then simulated NPP with climate change data from 1961 to 2005, when warming was particularly striking. The following are the results of the simulation. （1） Total NPP varied from 3.61 GtC/yr to 4.24 GtC/yr in the past 45 years and exhibited minimal significant linear increase or decrease. （2） Regional differences in the increase or decrease in NPP were large but exhibited an insignificant overall linear trend. NPP declined in most parts of eastern and central China, especially in the Loess Plateau. （3） Similar to the fluctuation law of annual NPP, seasonal NPP also displayed an insignificant increase or decrease; the trend line was within the general level. （4） The re- gional differences in seasonal NPP changes were large. NPP declined in spring, summer, and autumn in the Loess Plateau but increased in most parts of the Tibetan Plateau. 相似文献
9.
近年来全球气候变化已经影响到人类生活的所有地区,气候系统变化的规模和现状是数千年来前所未有的。与此同时,中国城镇化进程显著加快,尤其以城市建设用地扩张主导的土地城镇化最为突出,导致城市热环境脆弱性加剧。已有研究探索了特定类型土地利用变化对于城市热环境的影响,但忽视了全球气候变化背景下自然气候和人类活动共同作用城市热环境变化的双重过程。因此,本研究提出一种基于土地利用类型的城市热环境变化贡献度算法,旨在厘清自然气候（表征为土地利用平均温度变化）和人类活动（表征为土地利用类型转变）对于区域热环境变化的单独贡献。本研究使用中分辨率成像光谱仪（Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer,MODIS）地表温度及发射率数据,定量计算2005—2020年四季和昼夜京津冀城市群各城市土地利用类型平均温度和面积变化对于城市热环境变化的分别贡献。该算法计算各城市四季和昼夜地表温度变化与MODIS LST产品误差在1 K以内。2005—2020年各城市地表平均温度大多数呈增长态势,其中冬季白天增温幅度最高。耕地、城市建设用地和农村居民点对城市热环境变化的贡献度较其他土地利用类型突出。京津冀城市群中各城市人类活动对城市热环境变化的单位贡献强度远高于自然气候（4.03~648.07倍）,而人类活动的贡献总量（-0.25~0.92 K）低于自然气候（-2.40~6.50 K）。研究结果对于京津冀城市群空间协同发展和适应及减缓气候变化等具有重要的科学意义和实践价值。 相似文献
10.
Net primary productivity(NPP) is the most important index that represents the structure and function of the ecosystem.NPP can be simulated by dynamic global vegetation models(DGVM),which are designed to represent vegetation dynamics relative to environmental change.This study simulated the NPP of China's ecosystems based on the DGVM Integrated Biosphere Simulator(IBIS) with data on climate,soil,and topography.The applicability of IBIS in the NPP simulation of China's terrestrial ecosystems was verified first.Comparison with other relevant studies indicates that the range and mean value of simulations are generally within the limits of observations;the overall pattern and total annual NPP are close to the simulations conducted with other models.The simulations are also close to the NPP estimations based on remote sensing.Validation proved that IBIS can be utilized in the large-scale simulation of NPP in China's natural ecosystem.We then simulated NPP with climate change data from 1961 to 2005,when warming was particularly striking.The following are the results of the simulation.(1) Total NPP varied from 3.61 GtC/yr to 4.24 GtC/yr in the past 45 years and exhibited minimal significant linear increase or decrease.(2) Regional differences in the increase or decrease in NPP were large but exhibited an insignificant overall linear trend.NPP declined in most parts of eastern and central China,especially in the Loess Plateau.(3) Similar to the fluctuation law of annual NPP,seasonal NPP also displayed an insignificant increase or decrease;the trend line was within the general level.(4) The regional differences in seasonal NPP changes were large.NPP declined in spring,summer,and autumn in the Loess Plateau but increased in most parts of the Tibetan Plateau. 相似文献
11.
三江平原气温降水变化分析——以建三江垦区为例 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
气温及降水与人类生产生活密切联系,其变化必然会对生态系统和社会经济等产生重大影响。利用三江平原建三江垦区15个农场气象站1965～2002年气温和降水资料,运用气候趋势系数和一元回归分析法进行气候变化分析。结果表明:近40年来本区气温呈显著上升趋势,平均气温以0.50℃/10a幅度升高,不同季节平均气温均呈上升趋势,且冬季增幅最大,达0.82℃/10a。气温升高存在显著的区域差异,最大的增温中心位于南部边缘,气温倾向率大于0.60℃/10a。降水趋势性变化不显著,但仍呈弱减少趋势,年降水量倾向率为-1.90mm/10a,四季降水量以秋季减少最为显著。在此基础上进行气候突变分析,结果表明气温突变出现在1987年,降水突变出现在1980年和1997年,但降水突变不明显。研究三江平原建三江垦区的气候变化对于保障区域粮食安全具有重要的指导意义。 相似文献
12.
中国内陆热带地区近40年气候变化特征 总被引：33，自引：19，他引：14
用西双版纳6个气象站40余年观测资料,探讨中国内陆热带地区气候变化特征及趋势。结果表明:西双版纳地区的平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温总体上呈逐年增暖的趋势,其中平均气温上升率0.016 5～0.033 4℃/a,平均最低气温上升率0.008 6～0.038 7℃/a,平均最高气温上升率-0.001 4～0.018 6℃/a;降水长期变化特征则较复杂,规律不如气温明显,但总体趋势减少,年降水量变化主要决定于雨季降水量变化;相对湿度呈现逐年降低趋势。说明该地区气候向干热型转变。 相似文献
13.
14.
基于REOF-EEMD的西南地区气候变化区域分异特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
西南地区是全球变化区域响应的特殊地区,探究其气候变化区域分异特征具有重要的科学意义。文中选用REOF方法开展研究区气温和降水变化特征的空间分区,借助EEMD与BG分割算法等方法细致辨析了不同气候分区的气候演变特征。结果显示：① 西南地区年均温和年均降水变化均可划分为3个亚区,各自的空间界限高度相似,但降水Ⅱ、Ⅲ区的界限更偏南。② 20世纪50年代以来各气温亚区的年均温显著升高,川渝气温变化与全球变暖同步,黔西、黔中、滇北散布若干点状冷区。各降水亚区的时空差异明显,相较Ⅲ区,Ⅰ、Ⅱ区年均降水的波动性及年代际变化的差异更显著。③ ENSO事件对研究区气候变化的影响深远,不同气温、降水亚区对其的响应不尽相同。④ 不同气温亚区年均温序列突变点的收敛性较强,大致发生在1997年前后。不同降水亚区年均降水序列突变点的收敛性较弱。⑤ 各气温亚区年均温增加的持续性较强,Ⅱ、Ⅲ区尤甚。降水Ⅰ、Ⅱ区降水变化趋势不甚明显且具有一定的随机性,Ⅰ区的可能呈减速趋缓的减湿趋势,Ⅱ区的可能出现弱度减湿趋势,Ⅲ区降水趋于弱增。 相似文献
15.
中国南方不同土地利用/覆被类型对气温升温的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
基于我国南方六省国家气象台站历史气象资料、1:10万土地利用/覆被数据和NCEP再分析气温资料,通过比较气温变化在不同观测环境气象站之间的差异,分析中国南方三种主要土地利用/覆被类型对气温趋势的影响。结果显示:土地利用/覆被类型对气温趋势具有稳定的影响,建设用地的年均温、年均最高和最低气温的升温幅度均最高,耕地次之,林地最小。进一步利用再分析资料剔除区域大尺度气候背景影响后,建设用地的年均温升温趋势仍最大(0.105℃/10a),其次是耕地(0.056℃/10a),林地的升温趋势最小(-0.025℃/10a),且为负。这表明对于研究区气温的升温趋势,林地具有抑制作用,建设用地具有增强作用,且增强作用较耕地强。林地的各季节平均气温的变化幅度同样低于非林地。 相似文献
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近20 a中亚净初级生产力与实际蒸散发特征分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
中亚碳、水循环在气候变异和人为活动的影响下呈现新的时空特征。但由于观测数据稀缺,生态过程特殊,植被、土壤空间异质性强,中亚植被净初级生产力(NPP)、实际蒸散发(AET)的时空特征相关信息相对不足,且时效性不高。利用全球尺度的NPP、AET、土地覆被数据,气象站点与区域气候数据分析近20 a中亚地区NPP和AET的时空特征。结果表明：与1990年相比,2000年中亚地区农田NPP增幅小于自然植被,植被总固碳量增加了254.65 Tg C;近20 a中亚地区实际总蒸散量先增后降,农田对中亚水资源散失的贡献减小,自然植被的贡献增大,自然植被与农田面积变化决定中亚总蒸散量动态;北部农田区、东部山区及山前绿洲为NPP和AET的高值区,中西部荒漠为低值区。 相似文献
17.
Jun-hui Liu Ji-xi GaoShi-Hai Lv Yong-wei HanYi-huang Nie 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(3):298-308
Meteorological records show a rise in temperature and decrease in precipitation in most parts of the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China over the last 50 years. During the last quarter of the 20th Century, the agrarian sector went through a series of reforms and changes in government policies on land use that have led to extensive changes in land cover. The objective of this study was to redefine the location and analyze the boundary variations under the effects of climate and land use changes in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China. The results showed that the location of study area has been redefined as both a climatic ecotone from the perspective of suitability of precipitation and temperature for agricultural crops and vegetation growth, and also a land use ecotone based on the impacts of farmland restructuring by government policies on land use. In recent decades, the climatic boundary has moved southeast while the land use boundary has moved northwest, showing opposing directions of change. The extent of boundary changes in the northeast and northern sections are far greater than in the northwestern section of the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China. 相似文献
18.
In this study, the spatial distribution and changing trends of agricultural heat and precipitation resources in Northeast China were analyzed to explore the impacts of future climate changes on agroclimatic resources in the region. This research is based on the output meteorological data from the regional climate model system for Northeast China from 2005 to 2099, under low and high radiative forcing scenarios RCP4.5 (low emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (high emission scenario) as proposed in IPCC AR5. Model outputs under the baseline scenario, and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were assimilated with observed data from 91 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010 to perform the analyses. The results indicate that: (1) The spatial distribution of temperature decreases from south to north, and the temperature is projected to increase in all regions, especially under a high emission scenario. The average annual temperature under the baseline scenario is 7.70°C, and the average annual temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are 9.67°C and 10.66°C, respectively. Other agricultural heat resources change in accordance with temperature changes. Specifically, the first day with temperatures ≥10°C arrives 3 to 4 d earlier, the first frost date is delayed by 2 to 6 d, and the duration of the growing season is lengthened by 4 to 10 d, and the accumulated temperature increases by 400 to 700°C·d. Water resources exhibit slight but not significant increases. (2) While the historical temperature increase rate is 0.35°C/10a, the rate of future temperature increase is the highest under the RCP8.5 scenario at 0.48°C/10a, compared to 0.19°C/10a under the RCP4.5 scenario. In the later part of this century, the trend of temperature increase is significantly faster under the RCP8.5 scenario than under the RCP4.5 scenario, with faster increases in the northern region. Other agricultural heat resources exhibit similar trends as temperature, but with different specific spatial distributions. Precipitation in the growing season generally shows an increasing but insignificant trend in the future, with relatively large yearly fluctuations. Precipitation in the eastern region is projected to increase, while a decrease is expected in the western region. The future climate in Northeast China will change towards higher temperature and humidity. The heat resource will increase globally, however its disparity with the change in precipitation may negatively affect agricultural activities. 相似文献
19.
1736年以来西安气候变化与农业收成的相关分析 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
基于清代雨雪与农业收成等档案记载及现代气象观测记录,根据西安冬季降雪与平均气温之间的统计关系、降水入渗与水量平衡模型,分别重建了西安1736~2000年冬季平均气温与4季降水序列,并分析了该地区气候变化特征及其对1736~2000年农业收成的影响。主要结论如下：(1) 西安的冷暖变化存在明显的百年际波动：其中18世纪相对温暖,19世纪寒冷,20世纪又转为温暖,且增暖趋势极为明显。(2) 西安的降水变化存在明显的年代际波动。自1736年以来,共经历了6个多雨期与7个少雨期,其中多雨期的平均雨量比少雨期多16%。(3) 气候变化对农业收成的影响极为明显。其中夏季降水量与秋收关系显著,而夏收又与前一年秋~当年春季的降水明显相关,且大多数严重歉收年均由降水明显偏少而致。虽然温度的年际变化与收成没有显著的联系,但温度年代际变化,即气候的冷暖阶段变化却与收成的阶段性变化关系密切。 相似文献
20.
20世纪80年代以来西南喀斯特地区植被变化对气候变化的响应 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8
气候变化与植被变化的关系已经在全球和区域尺度上得到了研究证明。在前人研究的基础上,基于AVHRR GIMMS NDVI和AVHRR GloPEM NPP数据集,通过对逐个像元信息的提取和分析,研究了20世纪80年代以来,我国西南喀斯特地区植被变化对气候变化的响应。研究结果显示:(1)20世纪80年代以来,西南喀斯特地区植被覆盖度和净初级生产量总体均呈增加的趋势,但不显著。植被指数的年际变化存在着明显的区域差异;(2)植被指数年际变化与气候因子年际变化的相关系数区域分异比较明显;(3)不同的植被类型对气候变化有着不同的响应特征;在该研究区气温变化对植被变化的影响要高于降水量变化对其影响;(4)植被指数年际变化与气候因子年际变化的相关系数在不同气候条件下分布的规律性比较明显。本研究将会增进对影响喀斯特生态系统稳定性的自然过程的认识,同时也会为喀斯特生态系统的管理提供科学依据。 相似文献