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1.
The co-variation of rainfall and flow was assessed in four selected catchments of the River Nile which has two main sources including the White Nile (in the Equatorial region) and the Blue Nile (from the Ethiopian highlands). The selected catchments included Kyoga and Kagera (from the Equatorial region), as well as Blue Nile and Atbara (in Sudan and Ethiopia). In each catchment, the flow-rainfall co-variation was investigated at both seasonal and annual time scales. To explain aggregated variation at larger temporal scale while investigating the possible change in catchment behavior, which may interfere with the flow-rainfall relationship, rainfall-runoff modeling was done at daily time scale using data (falling within the period 1949–2003) from Kagera and Blue Nile i.e. the major catchment of each region where the River Nile emanates. Correlation analysis was conducted to assess how well the variation of flow and that of catchment-wide rainfall resonate. The co-occurrence of the changes in observed and simulated overland flow was examined using the quantile perturbation method (QPM). Trends in the model residuals were detected using the Mann–Kendal (MK) and cumulative rank difference (CRD) tests. The null hypothesis H 0 (no correlation between rainfall and flow) was rejected at the significance level α of 5% for all the selected catchments. The temporal changes in terms of the QPM anomalies for both the observed and simulated flow were in a close agreement. The evidence to reject the H 0 (no trend in the model residuals) was generally statistically insufficient at α = 5% for all the models and selected catchments considering both the MK and CRD tests. These results indicate that change in catchment behavior due to anthropogenic influence in the Nile basin over the selected time period was minimal. Thus, the overall rainfall-runoff generation processes of the catchments did not change in a significant way over the selected data period. The temporal flow variation could be attributed mainly to the rainfall variation. 相似文献
2.
African precipitation trends are commonly analyzed using short-term data observed over small areas. This study analyzed changes in long-term (1901–2015) annual and seasonal precipitation of high spatial (0.5°?×?0.5° grid) resolution covering the entire African continent. To assess an acceleration/deceleration of the precipitation increase/decrease, trend magnitude (mm/year) over the period 1991–2015 was subtracted from that of 1965–1990 to obtain Slope Difference (SD, mm/year). Co-variation of precipitation sub-trends with changes in large-scale ocean–atmosphere conditions was investigated. Regardless of the trend significance, in most parts of Africa, annual precipitation exhibited negative (positive) trends over the period 1965–1990 (1991–2015). Thus, the continent was, on average, recently (from 1991 to 2015) wetter than it was over the period 1965–1990. From 1901 to 2015, the null hypothesis H0 (no trend) was rejected (p < 0.05) for annual precipitation decrease over West Africa especially along the coastal areas near the Gulf of Guinea. The H0 was also rejected (p < 0.05) for the increase in annual and September–November precipitation of some areas along the Equatorial region (such as in Gabon and around Lake Victoria). For both annual and seasonal precipitation, the least SD values in the range ??1 to 1 mm/year were obtained in areas north of 10° N. The SD value went up to about 20 mm/year over the Sahel belt especially for the peak monsoon (June–August season). For the March–May precipitation, positive SD values were obtained in the Western part of Southern Africa. However, negative SD values (around ??5 mm/year) were obtained in the Horn of Africa. Variation in sub-trends of the East African precipitation was found to be driven by changes in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Variability in sub-trends of the West African precipitation is linked to changes in SST of the Atlantic Ocean. Changes in sub-trends of the South African precipitation correspond to anomalies in SST from the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Knowledge of precipitation changes and possible drivers is vital for predictive adaptation regarding the impacts of climate variability on hydro- or agro-meteorology. 相似文献
3.
Rainfall is the key climate variable that governs the spatial and temporal availability of water. In this study we identified monthly rainfall trends and their relation to the southern oscillation index (SOI) at ten rainfall stations across Australia covering all state capital cities. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used for identifying significant trends. The trend free pre‐whitening approach (TFPW) was used to remove the effects of serial correlation in the dataset. The trend beginning year was approximated using the cumulative summation (CUSUM) technique and the influence of the SOI was identified using graphical representations of the wavelet power spectrum (WPS). Decreasing trends of rainfall depth were observed at two stations, namely Perth airport for June and July rainfall starting in the 1970s and Sydney Observatory Hill for July rainfall starting in the 1930s. No significant trends were found in the Melbourne, Alice Springs and Townsville rainfall data. The remaining five stations showed increasing trends of monthly rainfall depth. The SOI was found to explain the increasing trends for the Adelaide (June) and Cairns (April) rainfall data and the decreasing trends for Sydney (July) rainfall. Other possible climatic factors affecting Australian rainfall are also discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
Yédjinnavènan Ahokpossi 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(15-16):2097-2123
ABSTRACTThe temporal variation and trends of annual rainfall distribution in Benin were examined using data from 1940 to 2015 at six meteorological stations and three raingauges stationed throughout the country. The nonparametric modified Mann-Kendal (MK) and Levene tests were applied to detect trends and heteroscedasticity, respectively. For six of the time series, no significant trends were detected. A Bayesian multiple change points detection approach was applied to the rainfall time series, and most (six of nine) exhibited abrupt change points, corresponding to the alternation between wet (before 1968 and after 1990) and dry (1969–1990) periods. No significant trends or breakpoints and changes in the variance were observed for the spatial average rainfall time series. Seven modified MK trend tests were applied; the trends are affected by the selected MK method and rainfall statistics. Oceanic and/or atmospheric influences on the rainfall in Benin were examined by investigating the correlation between the precipitation time series and several indices. Negative seasonal correlations were determined for the North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Niño3, while positive seasonal correlations were observed for the Southern Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation and Dipole Mode Index. 相似文献
5.
The main purpose of this study was to determine the most dominant periodic components that affect the annual and seasonal precipitation trends in each homogenous rainfall region in the Langat River Basin, Malaysia for the period 1982–2011. Performing this research could be essential because in the previous studies on detection of trend in Malaysia, the details of variations of different time scales and the periodic responsible for the observed trends were not investigated. Using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) coupled with Mann–Kendall at the regional scale for the first time particularly in the context of Malaysia is the contribution of this study. In order to form the homogenous rainfall regions, first the total annual and seasonal precipitation in each year was spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting method. The obtained precipitation series for the grids were then grouped applying the Ward’s clustering method based on the similarity of precipitation time series. After allocating a cluster number to each grid, the boundary of the regions was formed in ArcGIS software. Following which, in each homogenous region the areal precipitation series were computed by the Thiessen polygon method. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to detect trend and the DWT coupled with the MK test and the sequential MK analysis were then utilized in order to find out the time scale which affected the observed trend in each homogenous region. On annual scale, it was found that D1 (plus approximation) component in regions Annual Cluster1 (AC1) and AC2 was the periodic mode responsible for trends. On seasonal scale, in regions Northeast monsoon Cluster 1 (NC1), NC3, SC1 and Southwest monsoon Cluster 2 (SC2), D1 (with approximation), in regions NC4, Inter monsoon 1 Cluster 1 (I1C1), I1C2, Inter monsoon 2 Cluster 1 I2C1 and I2C2, Detail 2 (D2) (plus approximation) and in region NC2, Detail 3 (D3) (with approximation added) component were the most influential periodicity for trends. 相似文献
6.
ABSTRACT This paper presents an analysis of trends in six drought variables at 566 stations across India over the period 1901–2002. Six drought variables were computed using standardized precipitation index (SPI). The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope estimator were used for trend analysis of drought variables. Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) was used to identify the dominant periodic components in trends, whereas the significance of periodic components was examined using continuous wavelet transform (CWT) based global wavelet spectrum (GWS). Our results show an increasing trend in droughts in eastern, northeastern and extreme southern regions, and a decreasing trend in the northern and southern regions of the country. The periodic component influencing the trend was 2–4 years in south, 4–8 years in west, east and northeast, 8–64 years in central parts and 32–128 years in the north; however, most of the periodic components were not statistically significant. 相似文献
7.
The trends in annual maximum rainfall (AMR) intensity data in New South Wales, Australia, were examined. Data from 60 stations were used covering three study periods, 1955–2010, 1965–2010 and 1978–2010. Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) tests were applied to assess trends at local stations. Pre-whitening (PW), trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW) and the variance correction (VC) tests were used to assess the effects of serial correlation on trend results. For regional trend analysis, the regional MK test was employed. The impacts of climatic variability modes on the observed trends in AMR intensity and seasonal maximum rainfall data were investigated. It was found that positive trends were more frequent than the negative ones. The PW, TFPW and VC tests resulted in a slight reduction in the count of stations exhibiting significant positive trends. The number of stations exhibiting significant trends decreased when the impact of climate variability modes was considered. 相似文献
8.
This study developed a standard methodology for identifying spatial trends using satellite-based raster datasets. It involves the novelty of exploring the capabilities of a geographic information system in implementing the procedures of three trend tests, the Spearman rank order correlation (SROC) test, the Kendall rank correlation (KRC) test and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, on raster datasets of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission at 0.25° × 0.25° resolution. Comparative evaluation of the three tests revealed fair agreement of a major part of the test results for pre-, post- and non-monsoon and one-day maximum rainfall. Also, similar results from KRC and MK tests were obtained over a considerable area for annual, monsoon and monthly maximum rainfall. These findings suggest the importance of selecting the appropriate test depending on rainfall magnitudes at the chosen time scale and emphasize the robustness of the KRC and MK tests. 相似文献
9.
Jin Huang Jinchi Zhang Zengxin Zhang Chong-Yu Xu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(2):337-351
Water resources and soil erosion are the most important environmental concerns in the Yangtze River basin, where soil erosion and sediment yield are closely related to rainfall erosivity. The present study explores the spatial and temporal changing patterns of the rainfall erosivity in the Yangtze River basin of China during 1960–2005 at annual, seasonal and monthly scales. The Mann–Kendall test is employed to detect the trends during 1960–2005, and the T test is applied to investigate possible changes between 1991–2005 and 1960–1990. Meanwhile the Rescaled Range Analysis is used for exploring future trend of rainfall erosivity. Moreover the continuous wavelet transform technique is using studying the periodicity of the rainfall erosivity. The results show that: (1) The Yangtze River basin is an area characterized by uneven spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in China, with the annual average rainfall erosivity range from 131.21 to 16842 MJ mm ha?1 h?1. (2) Although the directions of trends in annual rainfall erosivity at most stations are upward, only 22 stations have significant trends at the 90 % confidence level, and these stations are mainly located in the Jinshajiang River basin and Boyang Lake basin. Winter and summer are the seasons showing strong upward trends. For the monthly series, significant increasing trends are mainly found during January, June and July. (3) Generally speaking, the results detected by the T test are quite consistent with those detected by the Mann–Kendall test. (4) The rainfall erosivity of Yangtze River basin during winter and summer will maintain a detected significant increasing trend in the near future, which may bring greater risks to soil erosion. (5) The annual and seasonal erosivity of Yangtze River basin all have one significant periodicity of 2–4 years. 相似文献
10.
AbstractStatistically significant FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) and adjusted Hargreaves (AHARG) reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends at monthly, seasonal and annual time scales were analysed by using linear regression, Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests at the 1 and 5% significance levels. Meteorological data were used from 12 meteorological stations in Serbia, which has a humid climate, for the period 1980–2010. Web-based software for conducting the trend analyses was developed. All of the trends significant at the 1 and 5% significance levels were increasing. The FAO-56 PM ET0 trends were almost similar to the AHARG trends. On the seasonal time scale, for the majority of stations significant increasing trends occurred in summer, while no significant positive or negative trends were detected by the trend tests in autumn for the AHARG series. Moreover, 70% of the stations were characterized by significant increasing trends for both annual ET0 series. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. GrimaldiCitation Gocic, M. and Trajkovic, S., 2013. Analysis of trends in reference evapotranspiration data in a humid climate. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 165–180. 相似文献
11.
The study focuses on the spatial and temporal variations of intense/extreme rainfall events over Gujarat State (India) during the period 1970–2014. Average monsoon rainfall for the state shows a significant increasing trend, with an increase of 48 mm/decade. Some of the stations in the Saurashtra region show a statistically significant increasing trend but none of the stations in the state show a decreasing trend. The increasing trend in monsoon rainfall is very significant for the past three decades, with an increase of 167 mm/decade. Instead of fixed absolute threshold values, relative threshold values of rainfall corresponding to the 95th, 98th, 99th and 99.5th percentiles for each station have been proposed to represent heavy, very heavy, intense and extreme rainfall, which varied between 70–120, 105–160, 130–210 and 165–280 mm, respectively. Significant increasing trends are observed for the frequency of heavy and very heavy rainfall events over the state. 相似文献
12.
Identification of temporal changes in hydrological regimes of river basins is an important topic in contemporary hydrology because of the potential impacts of climate change on river flow regimes.For this purpose,long-term historical records of rainfall(P),runoff(Q)and other climatic factors were used to investigate hydrological variability and trends in the Tajan River Basin over the period 1969e1998.Actual evaporation(E),rainfall variability index(d),evaporation ratio(CE)and runoff ratio(CQ)were estimated from the available hydroclimatological records.Mann-Kendall trend analysis and nonparametric Sen's slope estimates were performed on the respective time series variables to detect monotonic trend direction and magnitude of change over time.Rainfall variability index showed that 1973 was the wettest year(δ=+2.039)while 1985 was the driest(δ=-1.584).Also,decades 69e78 and 89e98 were recognized as the wettest and driest decades respectively.The gradient of variation of climatological parameters showed that during the study period,all three parameters of rainfall,evaporation and runoff have decreased and the variations of rainfall and evaporation were significant at the 95%level.Investigation of hydrological changes due of dam construction(1999)showed that the amount and annual distribution of discharge were completely different pre and post-dam construction.Discharge decreased in high water months and increased in low water months to meet water supply demands,especially for agriculture.The relationship between temperature and rainfall trends is compared for three stations in Mazandaran Province(Gorgan,Babolsar and Ramsar)from 1956 to 2003 and nine other stations with different statistical periods of 19e36 years,relating trends to northern hemisphere and global trends.Decreases in temperature were accompanied by decreases in rainfall,and vice versa.These trends were not observed in northern hemisphere and world scales,where temperature increases are accompanied by decreases in rainfall.These variations of hydroclimatological parameters show undesirable water resources situations during the statistical periods if the trend continues severe water resource crises. 相似文献
13.
Muhammet Yilmaz 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(7):820-834
A comprehensive evaluation of trends in annual instantaneous maximum flows (AIMF) from 153 gauge stations located in 26 river basins in Turkey is presented. Two traditional non-parametric trend tests, the Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR), are used to quantify the significance of trends, while Sen’s slope method is applied to determine the magnitude of trends. The traditional tests indicate that the AIMF records of 57 stations showed statistically decreasing trends, while those of six stations showed an increasing trend. Sen’s trend method, which provides more detailed assessment of the trends in different clusters (low, medium and high), was applied to the AIMF series and the results were compared with traditional tests. Sen’s trend method indicated that all flow clusters at nine stations have increasing or decreasing trends, although no significant trend was detected by the MK and SR tests. 相似文献
14.
The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
This study investigated using Monte Carlo simulation the interaction between a linear trend and a lag‐one autoregressive (AR(1)) process when both exist in a time series. Simulation experiments demonstrated that the existence of serial correlation alters the variance of the estimate of the Mann–Kendall (MK) statistic; and the presence of a trend alters the estimate of the magnitude of serial correlation. Furthermore, it was shown that removal of a positive serial correlation component from time series by pre‐whitening resulted in a reduction in the magnitude of the existing trend; and the removal of a trend component from a time series as a first step prior to pre‐whitening eliminates the influence of the trend on the serial correlation and does not seriously affect the estimate of the true AR(1). These results indicate that the commonly used pre‐whitening procedure for eliminating the effect of serial correlation on the MK test leads to potentially inaccurate assessments of the significance of a trend; and certain procedures will be more appropriate for eliminating the impact of serial correlation on the MK test. In essence, it was advocated that a trend first be removed in a series prior to ascertaining the magnitude of serial correlation. This alternative approach and the previously existing approaches were employed to assess the significance of a trend in serially correlated annual mean and annual minimum streamflow data of some pristine river basins in Ontario, Canada. Results indicate that, with the previously existing procedures, researchers and practitioners may have incorrectly identified the possibility of significant trends. Copyright © Environment Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
A seasonal water budget analysis was carried out to quantify various components of the hydrological cycle using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Betwa River basin (43?500 km2) in central India. The model results were satisfactory in calibration and validation. The seasonal water budget analysis showed that about 90% of annual rainfall and 97% of annual runoff occurred in the monsoon season. A seasonal linear trend analysis was carried out to detect trends in the water balance components of the basin for the period 1973–2001. In the monsoon season, an increasing trend in rainfall and a decreasing trend in ET were observed; this resulted in an increasing trend in groundwater storage and surface runoff. The winter season followed almost the same pattern. A decreasing trend was observed in summer season rainfall. The study evokes the need for conservation structures in the study area to reduce monsoon runoff and conserve it for basin requirements in water-scarce seasons.
EDITOR Z.W. KundzewiczASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Hattermann 相似文献
16.
This study examined trends and change points in 100-year annual and seasonal rainfall over hot and cold arid regions of India. Using k-means clustering, 32 stations were classified into two clusters: the coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal rainfall was relatively high for Cluster-II compared to Cluster-I. Short-term and long-term persistence was more dominant in Cluster-II (entirely arid) and Cluster-I (partly arid), respectively. Trend tests revealed prominent increasing trends in annual and wet season rainfall of Cluster-II. Dry season rainfall increased by 1.09 mm year?1 in the cold arid region. The significant change points in annual and wet season rainfall mostly occurred in the period 1941–1955 (hot and cold), and in the dry season in the period 1973–1975 (hot arid) and in 1949 (cold arid). The findings are useful for managing a surplus or deficiency of rainwater in the Indian arid region.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae 相似文献
17.
Abstract The study of precipitation trends is critically important for a country like India whose food security and economy are dependent on the timely availability of water. In this work, monthly, seasonal and annual trends of rainfall have been studied using monthly data series of 135 years (1871–2005) for 30 sub-divisions (sub-regions) in India. Half of the sub-divisions showed an increasing trend in annual rainfall, but for only three (Haryana, Punjab and Coastal Karnataka), this trend was statistically significant. Similarly, only one sub-division (Chattisgarh) indicated a significant decreasing trend out of the 15 sub-divisions showing decreasing trend in annual rainfall. In India, the monsoon months of June to September account for more than 80% of the annual rainfall. During June and July, the number of sub-divisions showing increasing rainfall is almost equal to those showing decreasing rainfall. In August, the number of sub-divisions showing an increasing trend exceeds those showing a decreasing trend, whereas in September, the situation is the opposite. The majority of sub-divisions showed very little change in rainfall in non-monsoon months. The five main regions of India showed no significant trend in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in most of the months. For the whole of India, no significant trend was detected for annual, seasonal, or monthly rainfall. Annual and monsoon rainfall decreased, while pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter rainfall increased at the national scale. Rainfall in June, July and September decreased, whereas in August it increased, at the national scale. Citation Kumar, V., Jain, S. K. & Singh, Y. (2010) Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 484–496. 相似文献
18.
Niraj Priyadarshi Soumya Bandyopadhyay V. M. Chowdary K. Chandrasekar Jeganathan Chockalingam Uday Raj 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(9):1583-1595
ABSTRACT This study analysed long-term rainfall data (1851–2006) over seven climatic zones of India at seasonal and annual scales based on three techniques: (i) linear regression, (ii) multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) and (iii) Bayesian algorithm. The linear regression technique was used for trend analysis of short-term (30 years) and long-term (156 years) rainfall data. The MFDFA revealed small- and large-scale fluctuations, whereas the Bayesian algorithm helped in quantifying the uncertainty in break-point detection from the rainfall time series. Major break points years identified through Bayesian algorithm were 1888, 1904 and 1976. The MFDFA technique identified that high fluctuation years were between 1871–1890, 1891–1910 and 1951–1970. Linear regression-based analysis revealed 1881–1910 and 1971–2006 as break-point periods in the North Mountainous Indian region. A similar analysis was carried out for India as a whole, as well as its seven climatic zones. 相似文献
19.
ABSTRACT Karst aquifers and springs are important with respect to their potential for supplying drinking water in regions suffering from water scarcity in Iran. Accordingly, it is essential to determine the recharge potential of the catchment and the regions with higher obtainability potential. This study provides a road map for the Sheshpeer catchment in southern Iran. A recharge potential (RP) map was produced from which a recharge index (RI) was computed for several selected springs in the catchment. Furthermore, the unit discharge (q) – defined as the average annual discharge for a given catchment area and unit rainfall depth for each spring – was calculated. The plot of q versus RI for the springs showed a linear positive relationship between the two variables (R 2 = 0.9). Applying the trend equation of this plot to the whole Sheshpeer karstic catchment reveals that its long-term recharge coefficient is 0.74. 相似文献
20.
ABSTRACTThe trends in hydrological and climatic time series data of Urmia Lake basin in Iran were examined using the four different versions of the Mann-Kendall (MK) approach: (i) the original MK test; (ii) the MK test considering the effect of lag-1 autocorrelation; (iii) the MK test considering the effect of all autocorrelation or sample size; and (iv) the MK test considering the Hurst coefficient. Identification of hydrological and climatic data trends was carried out at monthly and annual time scales for 25 temperature, 35 precipitation and 35 streamflow gauging stations selected from the Urmia Lake basin. Mann-Kendall and Pearson tests were also applied to explore the relationships between temperature, precipitation and streamflow trends. The results show statistically significant upward and downward trends in the annual and monthly hydrological and climatic variables. The upward trends in temperature, unlike streamflow, are much more pronounced than the downward trends, but for precipitation the behaviour of trend is different on monthly and annual time scales. Furthermore, the trend results were affected by the different approaches. Specifically, the number of stations showing trends in hydrological and climatic variables decreased significantly (up to 50%) when the fourth test was considered instead of the first and the absolute value of the Z statistic for most of the time series was reduced. The results of correlations between streamflow and climatic variables showed that the streamflow in Urmia Lake basin is more sensitive to changes in temperature than those of precipitation. The observed decreases in streamflow and increases in temperature in the Urmia Lake basin in recent decades may thus have serious implications for water resources management under the warming climate with the expected population growth and increased freshwater consumption in this region.
Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. Zhang 相似文献