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本文介绍一种新的评估场地地震危险性的概率方法。该方法主要依据场地历史地震影响烈度资料,其特点是吸收了地震危险性分析的某些思想,并能引进区域未来地震活动趋势估计。文中提出有关参数综合确定方法并对一些问题进行了讨论。作为实例,预测了14个工程场地地震危险性。与地震危险性分析方法相比,该方法具有计算简便,不确定性和敏感性因素较少的优点,并能用实际资料检验所求的场地总危险性P(I≥i)。在地震和烈度史料丰富的地区,本方法可以取得比目前危险性分析更稳定的结果。 相似文献
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目前我国针对陆域地区的建筑物和构筑物已建立了比较完备的抗震设计理论和技术体系,但对于海洋工程的抗震研究工作开展得不充分,尤其是海洋岛礁场地的地震反应分析尚属空白。伴随着近年来我国南海地区的迅速开发建设,有必要对南海岛礁的地震危险性分析和抗震设计展开研究。介绍南海岛礁场地的特殊工程地质条件和地震活动性特征,通过比较目前国内外常用的场地地震反应分析方法,针对岛礁这一特殊工程地质体,提出岛礁场地地震反应分析中需要考虑的四个显著因素,包括(1)南海岛礁体的特殊地形;(2)南海岛礁特殊的岩土工程材料;(3)海水-岛礁体动力相互作用;(4)南海地区海底输入地震动的确定,并探讨解决这些问题的思路。为分析地震作用下岛礁场地的稳定性、场地反应分析提供研究思路,同时为南海岛礁建设中的地震危险性分析提供参考。 相似文献
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通过研究１９８１年以来,辽宁地区特别是营海地区的地震活动,从中发现了地震的活动特征;（１）辽宁地区地震活动的发震地区是营口－海城地区,并制约了周围地区的地震活动;（２）营口地区自１９８１年以来。形成了自盖州归州经熊岳西海域,盖州西海域,营口市至大石桥高坎,旗口地区的４级地震活动条带,４级地震有从西南向东北迁移的规律,利用营口－海城地区地震活动规律,曾对１９９５年４月１５日高坎５．０级做了短期预报。 相似文献
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提出了一种改进的考虑非线性场地效应的概率地震危险性分析方法。文中应用实例展示了考虑吉尔罗伊2号场地土层非线性效应的危险性曲线。在卡拉韦拉斯断层上指定了震源参数和地震发生模型，假设该断层为影响该场地的主要震源。采用3次地震的记录经NONLI3程序（可计算土层对强地面运动的非线性响应）建立了该处地表和基岩加速之间的关系。对一定的基岩运动，估算出的地面峰值加速度（PGA）标准误差的不同值可作敏感性分析。实例研究包括一个可替换的非线性关系。除了非线性模型，在吉尔罗伊2号场地上的相同土壤剖面也采用了线性响应模型。结果显示，危险性曲线对估算的该处地表加速度峰值的标准误差非常敏感。如果对场地土壤的非线性程度考虑不足，危险性曲线将严重失真。得自回归分析的可替换的非线性模型和线性响应模型在考虑非线性场地效应的危险性评估是不适用的。 相似文献
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Past and recent observations have shown that the local site conditions significantly affect the behavior of seismic waves and its potential to cause destructive earthquakes. Thus, seismic microzonation studies have become crucial for seismic hazard assessment, providing local soil characteristics that can help to evaluate the possible seismic effects. Among the different methods used for estimating the soil characteristics, the ones based on ambient noise measurements, such as the H/V technique, become a cheap, non-invasive and successful way for evaluating the soil properties along a studied area.In this work, ambient noise measurements were taken at 240 sites around the Doon Valley, India, in order to characterize the sediment deposits. First, the H/V analysis has been carried out to estimate the resonant frequencies along the valley. Subsequently, some of this H/V results have been inverted, using the neighborhood algorithm and the available geotechnical information, in order to provide an estimation of the S-wave velocity profiles at the studied sites.Using all these information, we have characterized the sedimentary deposits in different areas of the Doon Valley, providing the resonant frequency, the soil thickness, the mean S-wave velocity of the sediments, and the mean S-wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m. 相似文献
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总结了地震安全性估计方法的现状与发展趋势,指出我国在用确定性方法确定设计地震动时,有些不确定性并未考虑,不少主观决定并非总是足够安全的。文中推荐了概率方法。场地影响分析中,特别是座落于软基上的核设施,需要对输入面的选择及土层反应分析中的多种不确定因素进行考虑。最后指出场地地震相关反应谱对座落于软基上的核设施的重要意义,以及大远震与小近震对反应谱的不同影响 相似文献
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Gholamreza Abdollahzadeh Mohammad Sazjini Mohsen Shahaky Fatemeh Zahedi Tajrishi Leila Khanmohammadi 《Journal of Seismology》2014,18(3):357-369
Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region. 相似文献
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Earthquake-induced hazards are profoundly affected by site effects related to the amplification of ground motions, which are strongly influenced by local geologic conditions such as soil thickness or bedrock depth and soil stiffness. In this study, an integrated geographic information system (GIS)-based system for geotechnical data, called the geotechnical information system (GTIS), was developed to establish a regional counterplan against earthquake ground motions in the Seoul metropolitan area. In particular, to reliably predict spatial geotechnical information, a procedural methodology for building the GTIS within a GIS framework was developed and applied to the Seoul area in Korea. To build the GTIS, pre-existing geotechnical data were collected in and around the study area, and then a walk-over site survey was conducted to acquire surface geo-knowledge data. In addition, the representative shear wave velocities for geotechnical layers were derived by statistically analyzing many seismic test data in Korea. The GTIS was used in a practical application to estimate site effects in the study area; seismic zoning maps of geotechnical earthquake parameters, such as the depth to bedrock and the site period, were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy for earthquake risk assessment. Furthermore, seismic zonation of site classification was also performed to determine the site amplification coefficients for seismic design and seismic performance evaluation at any site and administrative sub-unit in the study area. The methodology and results of the case study of seismic zonations in the Seoul area verified that the GIS-based GTIS can be very useful for the regional estimation of seismic risk and also to support decisions regarding seismic hazard mitigation, particularly in the metropolitan area. 相似文献
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An integrated probabilistic seismic hazard analysis procedure that incorporates nonlinear site effects, PSHA-NL, is developed and used to characterize the influence of thick deposits of the upper Mississippi Embayment (ME) on seismic site coefficients. PSHA-NL follows the methodology of the 2002 USGS hazard maps and generates a compatible set of ground motion records. The motions are propagated using nonlinear and equivalent linear site response analyses and ME properties developed in a companion paper and used to derive surface uniform hazard response spectra. A set of generic site coefficients are derived and summarized in a format similar to NEHRP site coefficients, with an added dimension of ME deposits thickness to the Paleozoic rock, a physically meaningful impedance boundary. These coefficients compare well with NEHRP site coefficients for 30 m profiles. For thicker soil profiles, developed site coefficients are lower at short periods and higher at long periods than NEHRP site coefficients. 相似文献
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Jorge M. Gaspar-Escribano Manuel Navarro Belén Benito Antonio García-Jerez Francisco Vidal 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2010,8(6):1547-1567
An approach that relates results from a regional seismic hazard assessment study with local-scale site-effect characterizations
in an area of low-to-moderate seismic activity such as Andalusia (southern Spain), is presented. Results of a previous probabilistic
seismic hazard analysis of Andalusia on rock conditions are disaggregated to infer hazard controlling earthquakes for different
target motions. A collection of controlling magnitude-distance pairs and the corresponding site-specific response spectra
at main capital cities of the region are obtained. These spectra are first-order approximations to expected seismic actions
required in local earthquake risk assessments. In addition, results of independent, local-scale studies developed in Almeria
City (SE Andalusia) are used to derive an updated seismic zonation of the city. These include predominant soil period estimates
and shear-wave velocity profiles at different locations. If a local seismic risk assessment study or an earthquake-resistant
structural design is to be developed, it may be recommended the use of different seismic actions on sites characterized by
distinct response to seismic shaking (as derived from the seismic zonation). The seismic action related to worst-case scenarios
may be modeled through a hazard-consistent response spectrum, obtained by hazard disaggregation at the spectral acceleration
with period matching the prevailing resonant period of the target site or structure. 相似文献
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Maria-Jose Jiménez Dario Albarello Mariano García-Fernández 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(7):1849-1867
In many countries such as Spain earthquake databases still mainly comprise macroseismic data from felt effects. The full exploit of this information is of basic importance for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning, given the strict link between macroseismic intensity and damage. A probabilistic procedure specifically developed to handle macroseismic data, mostly relying on site information and seismogenic-source free, has been applied to evaluate seismic hazard in SE-Spain (Alicante-Murcia region). Present seismicity is moderate-low with largest magnitudes slightly over Mw5.0. The historical record includes very destructive earthquakes, maximum EMS98 intensities reaching IX–X and X in the nineteenth century (e.g., Torrevieja 1829 earthquake). Very recently, two events in the area on 11 May 2011 (Mw4.5, Mw5.2) killed nine people, injured 300, and produced important damage in the city of Lorca. Regional hazard maps for the area together with specific hazard curves at selected localities are obtained. Results are compared with the maximum observed intensities in the period 1300–2012, and with the values in the seismic hazard map from the Spanish Building Code in force. In general, the maximum felt intensity values are closer to the hazard values calculated for 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, using felt and expected intensity. The intensity-based probabilistic hazard maps obtained through the applied approach reduce the inherent smoothing of those based on standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches for the region, allowing identifying possible over- or sub-estimates of site hazard values, providing very valuable information for risk reduction strategies or for future updates of the building code hazard maps. 相似文献
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An instrumental validation is attempted of an innovative approach devoted to the quick individuation, from macroseismic data, of site amplification phenomena able to significantly modify seismic hazard levels expected on the basis of average propagation effects only. According to this methodology, two evaluations of hazard are performed at each investigated locality: the former, obtained by epicentral intensity data ‘reduced’ at the site through a probabilistic attenuation function and, the latter, computed by integrating such data with seismic effects actually observed at the site during past earthquakes. The comparison, for each locality, between these two hazard estimates allow to orientate the identification of those sites where local amplifications of earthquake ground motion could be significant. In order to check such methodology, indications obtained in this way from macroseismic data are compared with the estimates of transfer functions performed through the HVSR technique applied to microtremors. Results concerning municipalities located in a seismic area of Northern Italy indicate a good agreement between macroseismic and instrumental estimates. 相似文献
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Introduction The estimation of damage probability distribution among different damage states of rein-forced concrete buildings is a key component of earthquake loss estimation for modern city or a group of cities. With the development of city, the reinforced concrete buildings are major compo-nent parts of modern cities. Vulnerability estimates for these kinds of buildings are of importance to those responsible for civil protection, relief, and emergency services to enable adequate contin-genc… 相似文献